CVRR reported the other day.....$1.01, I believe.
And now the number is in for ALDW---paying 98 cents for Q3.
This is right about what I think most of us have been expecting. Attention now falls onto NTI set to report later in the week.
If NTI fails to match or exceed the dollar payout by each of the other two MLPs, there's going to be some disgruntled folks out there. I think about 70 cents should be the NTI distribution but, of course, I hope it is much higher and certainly not lower. Analysts are pretty close-mouthed this time around whereas they are usually giddy when it comes to making their predictions.
Zack's has a "strong sell" on ALDW. That's had me nervous as I've assumed the payout this time would be dreadful. But with its being in line not with Zack's but with my thinking, I'm as happy as a pig at a turkey shoot. lol
So here's what I'm thinking:
If NTI pays 70 cents, the unit price will probably rise another 30-40 cents, leading up to going ex.. If there's even a hint of WNR gaining full control of things, I'll be expecting a massive sell-off immediately following NTI's going ex-distribution. I don't believe for an instant that WNR is giving much thought to the welfare of unit holders of NTI.
I hope I'm not raining on anybody's parade here. Remember, I've got 2,300 units of NTI myself. And I'm hopeful but only to a degree. There's simply too many components to this puzzle and not all of them are presenting positives while most hold a negative potential.
If NTI climbs to $27.50 over the next three days I will probably sell half my position with the opening of trading on ex-D day. And I'll suggest all unit holders consider this as we're heading into the weaker part of the refining year. It sure would be a shame to hold onto these $27.50 units only to see them fall back to $22 by the middle of Winter when we can expect refinery profits to decline strongly.
These are my thoughts only. Everybody has 'em---this is where it's critical that each of us think things through and come to a practicable stance and then execute.
Good fortune to all!
