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Ombow, Here's a list of eVTOL related companies by market cap (below). Next would be to check out the status of the current helicopter companies (Airbus, Bell, Boeing, Leonardo, Sikorsky). Chances are the most promising small e-VTOL companies will be acquired by these large behemoths -
Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY) (3.8 Bil), a vertically integrated air mobility company, engages in building an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft optimized to deliver air transportation as a service. The company intends to build an aerial ridesharing service, as well as developing an application-based platform that will enable consumers to book rides. Joby Aviation, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Santa Cruz, California.
Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) (1.5 Bil), together with its subsidiaries, develops urban air mobility solutions. It is involved in the design and production of electrical vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs); provision of eVTOL service and support capabilities, including material services, maintenance, technical support, training, ground handling, and data services; and development of urban air traffic management systems. The company is based in Melbourne, Florida. Eve Holding, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Embraer S.A.
Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) (1.4 Bil), together with its subsidiaries, engages in designs, develops, and operates electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for use in urban air mobility. The company was formerly known as Atlas Crest Investment Corp. and changed its name to Archer Aviation Inc. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
EHang Holdings Limited (EH) (1.2 Bil) operates as an autonomous aerial vehicle (AAV) technology platform company in the People's Republic of China, East Asia, West Asia, Europe, and internationally. It designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and operates AAVs, as well as their supporting systems and infrastructure for various industries and applications, including passenger transportation, logistics, smart city management, and aerial media solutions. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Lilium N.V. (LILM) (507 mil), a transportation company, engages in the research and development of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircrafts and jet for use in high-speed air transport system for people and goods. It also provides aircraft manufacturer services, including training, maintenance operations, material and battery management, global distribution, flight operations support, ground service equipment, and digital solutions. Lilium N.V. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Wessling, Germany.
Vertical Aerospace Ltd. (EVTL) (252 mil), an aerospace and technology company, engages in designing, manufacturing, and selling zero operating emission electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for use in the advanced air mobility in the United Kingdom. It offers VX4, an eVTOL aircraft. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, the United Kingdom.
Blade Air Mobility, Inc. (BLDE) (214 mil) provides air transportation alternatives to the congested ground routes in the United States. It provides its services through charter and by-the-seat flights using helicopters, jets, turboprops, and amphibious seaplanes. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) (62 mil) operates as an electric aviation and air travel company in the United States. It offers an air mobility platform with scheduled routes and on demand charter flights operated by third parties; and air cargo services. The company is headquartered in Hawthorne, California.
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So how would you play it? And what about timing?
Ombow, Since these VTOLs are clearly going to happen, how to invest in it is the next question. It would require some research, but sounds like an interesting quest. Here are some ideas -
>>> 7 eVTOL Stocks to Invest In the Full Range of Air Mobility
Leverage the 'verticals' of transportation
By Josh Enomoto
InvestorPlace
Jan 25, 2024
https://investorplace.com/2024/01/7-evtol-stocks-to-invest-in-the-full-range-of-air-mobility/
Toyota (TM): Toyota’s key investments in eVTOLs make it a conservative idea.
Honeywell (HON): Honeywell delivers critical technologies to air mobility platforms.
Embraer (ERJ): Embraer is leveraging its know-how to get into the eVTOL game.
Take your portfolio to the skies with compelling eVTOL stocks.
While everyday mobility generally occurs on the terrestrial realm, the vertical axis opens up several possibilities, thereby bolstering the basic case of eVTOL stocks. With electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, people can quickly and conveniently get to their destination. Better yet, these flying car stocks present holistic value.
Yes, when it comes to flying vehicle stocks, I suppose you can technically include helicopters in the mix. However, they’re loud – and when there are several in the area, they can impose nuisances on folks down on earth. In addition, helicopters aren’t exactly zero-emission vehicles. With eVTOLs, the platform is delivering the same benefits as electric vehicles but in the skies.
Further, let’s talk about the numbers behind air mobility stocks. According to MarketsandMarkets, the eVTOL market size could grow from $1.2 billion in 2023 to $23.4 billion by 2030. If so, that would represent a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52%. And that might be on the conservative side, with Grand View Research projecting the air mobility market to hit $137.11 billion by 2035.
Fundamentally, the paradigm is shifting. Below are eVTOL stocks to consider.
Toyota (TM)
Let’s get something out of the way first. Japanese automotive giant Toyota (NYSE:TM) isn’t exactly a pure-play idea for eVTOL stocks. And to be sure, it has an “interesting” relationship with electric-powered mobility. Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda continues to express his skepticism over EVs as sector sales decline amid tough economic conditions. Still, investors might not want to conflate EVs with air mobility endeavors.
For one thing, Toyota extended its partnership with eVTOL developer Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) regarding a long-term supply arrangement. Ultimately, the mutual goal centers on reaching mass production of electric passenger aircraft in the U.S. Second, Toyota continues to conduct research and development regarding solid-state batteries. Should it be successful, such a rousing technology could translate to air mobility. Thus, it’s an intriguing idea for flying car stocks.
And frankly, it’s a credible play. With Toyota, you’re dealing with a consistently profitable enterprise. And with a trailing-year earnings multiple of only 9.92X, it’s undervalued. Therefore, it makes sense as a key member of flying vehicle stocks.
Honeywell (HON)
Again, let’s discuss the obvious point: Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON) is not a direct player in the competition within eVTOL stocks. However, that doesn’t mean the industrial conglomerate is irrelevant to the transportation paradigm shift. On the contrary, Honeywell’s applied sciences acumen is crucial for the safe and efficient operation of eVTOL aircraft.
According to the company’s website, it provides advanced flight controls for electric-powered aircraft; specifically, its fly-by-wire system. A significant innovation in aerospace, fly-by-wire means that the flight control inputs that pilots make are processed by computers rather than “analog” systems. It’s a complex piece of technology but the bottom line is that fly-by-wire adds tremendous stability to the aircraft. That’s kind of an important attribute.
Further, what makes HON a viable candidate for air mobility stocks is the underlying financials. True, it’s not the prettiest picture available. Nevertheless, the company enjoys consistent profitability and strong margins across the board. Also, analysts peg shares a consensus moderate buy with a $219.23 average price target. For a reasonable idea among eVTOL stocks, you probably can’t go wrong with Honeywell.
Embraer (ERJ)
A Brazilian multinational aerospace corporation, Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) might again not be one of the pure-play flying car stocks. However, because of its core business, it’s more related to the arena of air mobility than most other companies. Further, ERJ may organically benefit from improved economic conditions worldwide. Indeed, during the past 52 weeks, shares gained just over 39% of equity value.
However, as it relates to flying vehicle stocks, Embraer features an initiative called Eve, a new independent company that’s dedicated to accelerating the urban air mobility ecosystem. Here, Eve leverages Embraer’s 50-year history of engineering expertise to deliver 100% electric-powered flying cars. Further, the company indicates that while the underlying eVTOL aircraft will be piloted by humans at launch, it will eventually be ready for autonomous operations.
Now, unlike some of the other established names, Embraer doesn’t offer the most attractive financials. That said, ERJ trades at a forward earnings multiple of 14.77X, below the aerospace and defense industry’s median multiple of 17.16X. Analysts also rate shares a consensus strong buy with a $20.75 average price target. Thus, it could make for a tempting play for air mobility stocks.
Boeing (BA)
Admittedly, Boeing (NYSE:BA) is a tricky situation given recent safety concerns. According to a recent CNN article, Alaska Airlines (NYSE:ALK) found loose bolts on many Boeing 737 Max 9 jetliners. I don’t know about you but the terms “loose” and “bolts” are not words I want to hear under the context of flight; specifically, the context of my flight. Still, BA has been holding up surprisingly well from all the bad news.
Assuming we move forward from the fiasco, Boeing naturally makes for an intriguing idea for eVTOL stocks. Obviously, as a global leader in the aerospace industry, the company boasts extensive experience in aircraft design, manufacturing and certification. What may pique investors’ interest is Boeing’s experimentation with a solar-powered plane. In theory, such an aircraft could fly at high altitudes for years at a time.
Should momentum take off in that arena, the company would have a clear edge in zero emissions. In the meantime, BA stock is a beneficiary of its longstanding reputation. Despite recent wobbles, analysts peg shares a consensus strong buy with a $272.05 price target.
Archer Aviation (ACHR)
Moving onto the pure-play ideas for eVTOL stocks, Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) concentrates exclusively on building air mobility craft. Per its public profile, Archer’s eVTOLs are designed around the transportation of people in mind as an air taxi service. Further, its vehicles can travel a distance of up to 100 miles at a speed of 150 miles per hour. As well, Archer inked a deal with United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL), the former enterprise’s first major corporate partner.
Functionally, one of Archer’s top attributes is the design of its eVTOL aircraft. Featuring a 4-passenger configuration, it promises to deliver quieter operation and possibly greater efficiency compared to the competition. That’s significant because if the concept of air mobility stocks takes off, we could see tons of these craft in the sky. Unfortunately, that could create a compounding effect in terms of noise. So, anything to reduce this burden would be appreciated.
Still, all pioneering businesses carry risks. For Archer, it remains a narrative play, with the company not generating revenue yet. Nevertheless, that hasn’t stopped analysts from rating ACHR a consensus strong buy with an $8.13 average price target.
Blade Air Mobility (BLDE)
Ramping up the risk-reward profile in eVTOL stocks, we find Blade Air Mobility (NASDAQ:BLDE). An aviation specialist headquartered in New York City, Blade’s urban air mobility platform provides air transportation for passengers. As well, it offers last-mile services related to critical cargo, primarily via helicopters and amphibious aircraft. Fun fact: it’s also one of the largest air medical transporters of human organs.
However, the market hasn’t really treated BLDE that well despite its myriad relevancies. Looking at its 52-week chart, shares lost more than 27% of equity value. It’s also off to an inauspicious start to the new year, dipping over 7%. Nevertheless, the urban air mobility may offer significant upside for Blade Air Mobility. Per Mordor Intelligence, the segment could reach a value of $45.4 billion by 2036. That would imply a CAGR of 23.54% from 2024.
As with other flying car stocks, you’re taking a big risk in terms of viability. However, Blade has the advantage of posting a three-year revenue growth rate of 18.5%, above 78.26% of its peers. Analysts also peg shares a unanimous strong buy with an $8.17 price target.
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Easily the riskiest idea on this list of eVTOL stocks, Surf Air Mobility (NYSE:SRFM) is really only appropriate for speculators. As you can see from its price chart, SRFM carries a price tag of only a little over a buck. Most would call that penny stock territory. Also, its market capitalization sits at around $86 million. That’s barely above the nano-cap threshold of $50 million.
Oh yeah – shares lost nearly 63% of equity value in the trailing year. I’m not trying to cast aspersions. It’s just that you’ve got to be super-careful here.
With all that said, Surf Air does deliver a compelling narrative. Currently, the enterprise focuses on luxury travel, catering to a smaller (but ultimately more profitable) niche market. By providing premium, personalized air travel, Surf Air could potentially be viable sooner. Basically, it would be addressing a higher-income crowd instead of waiting for the air mobility industry to scale.
Still, revenue growth has slowed between 2022’s results and the trailing 12-month performance. So, caution is a must. At the same time, analysts rate shares a buy with a robust $3.31 price target.
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I don't know very much about the technology, but ubers in the sky seems very feasible. And the military wants these aircraft, too.
Ombow, Yes, basically everything that helicopters are used for now. However, there may be a fundamental issue with 'scalability', due to the weight of the batteries required. A really big electric helicopter that can carry 20 troops with full gear may not be feasible yet due to the high weight of the required batteries. But for smaller helicopters the e-VTOL approach looks ideal.. As battery science advances, the weight issues can be resolved, allowing larger aircraft and bigger payloads.
Another aspect with these e-VTOLs is that they are 'fly by wire', ie the ability to maneuver and remain in flight is completely dependent upon electronics rather than mechanical means. I remember the F-16 was the first US fighter to go 'fly by wire', and there were initially big problems when flying over certain transmission towers - they would interfere with the electronics and this caused numerous F-16 crashes in Europe. That presumably has been fixed, but 'fly by wire' is still a vulnerability since these aircraft can't remain in flight if their computer / electronics malfunction.
But overreliance on electronic systems has become the broader 'Achilles Heel' of modern civilization. One big EMP/Electromagnetic pulse and these electronics are fried, and we're instantly back to the Stone Age. On the aircraft side, my dad was involved with the 'doomsday' escape helicopter to be used by the President in the event of nuclear war or other emergencies. It was heavily modified and the electronics were 'hardened' against EMP. That was in the 1980s, but now every aspect of modern life is completely dependent on microelectronics, and virtually none of it is hardened against EMP. It's the ticking time bomb that ultimately sends us back to the Stone Age. Russia and China are reportedly hardening their power grids against EMP, at least to some extent, but in the US, nothing.
The extreme EMP vulnerability is not just from orbital nuclear devices, but from a large solar EMP striking the Earth (Carrington Event). Current microelectronics are ~ 1 million times more vulnerable to EMP than were earlier electrical systems. So the clock is ticking for our 'digital everything' world, and we've collectively painted ourselves into a corner. High technology = high vulnerability -
Carrington Event -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
The eVTOLS could be used to ferry people from out in the woods cities and towns to other cities and towns out in the woods or to major cities, Philly, Boston, etc.. It would be like Uber-in-the-sky (with diamonds).
Ombow, Looking at these e-VTOLS, it seems inevitable that they will eventually replace the older traditional helicopters. There are just too many advantages. Not so much for the 'air taxi' application, but for basically everything that current helicopters do. The shorter flying times will be fixed by new battery technologies, as will the slow re-charging times. The traffic helicopters, police helicopters, etc -- over time these will inevitably transition to this new e-VTOL approach.
Here is the basic rationale that I posted over on the Boeing board earlier today (below). The big advantages (huge) are the redundancy of the engines (lose 1, 2, even 3, no problem), and no vibration (which is what causes the structural fatigue and failures, lost rotors, etc) -
>>> I wouldn't buy the stocks either, but it's an interesting technology to follow. The proposed business model - VTOL 'taxi service', I don't see being very viable if you can only carry a handful of passengers at a time. They also have to periodically recharge the electric batteries, so lots of downtime, and the cost of these aircraft will be steep. Business-wise, better off just buying a fleet of yellow cabs. But the technology is super cool, so that's the attraction :o)
The 'redundancy' aspect of having so many engines is a huge safety plus, and the lack of vibration eliminates one of the biggest problems with helicopters. My dad was a pilot and an aeronautical engineer, and in the 1980s did some modification work on helicopters. He said he would absolutely never get in one. But these new electric VTOLs eliminate some of the biggest problems. <<<
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174143128
Now you're thinking. But timing is the question. What will the stocks do over the next twelve months? 18 months? Who knows, but if these companies become successful businesses, the share prices will go higher and buyouts are possible, also.
Ombow, I see JOBY has received funding from Toyota and Delta Airlines. Also a partnership with Garmin for the flight deck equipment. JOBY's founder is billionaire 'serial' entrepreneur JoeBen Bevirt -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joby_Aviation
Archer Aviation (ACHR) reportedly received an order for 100 aircraft from United Airlines. Also a partnership with Stellantis and investments from Boeing -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer_Aviation
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Xena, Thanks. I'll keep an eye on LWLG :o)
Fwiw, my own investment strategy has evolved into more of a shotgun approach, with small positions in lots of different stocks and sectors (with nice long term charts). I tried the 'mega position in one stock' approach, but had poor results, and almost went nuts (and broke). So I figure each investor is different, and whatever works :o)
Here I am after a mega stock bet lol..
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Bigworld, I think you meant Energy Transfer (ET), which has a phenomenal 8% dividend, but as an LP I think there is probably a Schedule K-1 at tax time. I get around that by owning TRP and ENB, which have the high dividends (over 7%), but no K-1.
On the hard asset / commodity side, a lot of the basic materials stocks have been doing well. In the concrete / aggregates area are Vulcan Materials (VMC) and Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), and there's also the industrial gases sector (Linde - LIN).
In lumber / wood there is UFPI, which overlaps with the homebuilding related sectors which also look good (ITB, BLDR, TREX) and also the HVAC stocks (AAON, LII, TT), and these have nice long term charts for buy / hold. While just about everything is entering near term overbought territory, I figure they are good longer term buy / holds.
The water sector is another great area, and should be fairly recession-proof. In addition to the ETFS (FIW, PHO), some solid long term ideas are BMI, FELE, IEX, ROP, TTEK, WTS.
In agro, I went with the machinery side (ALG, DE) rather than the actual commodities. There's also a great rural retailer - TSCO.
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gfp: I'd wait for a pullback but one of my largest holdings (EP) has been on a roll. I think the price is up about 15% over the last couple months and it kicks out a serious dividend that accumulates in my Roth IRA.
Nope - LWLG customers are working in a very competitive landscape. Keeping their I.D.'s private until they have product rollout and give consent is only reasonable.
I've been following and investing in this company since OTC....
I feel that I have sufficiently analyzed it by following both the company's progress and knowledgeable people that are commenting on the IHUB board.
I have enough knowledge to separate the liars from the truth tellers, and that is sufficient "external confirmation" .
Bigworld, I may be joining you with more investments in the hard asset categories. I'm thinking more exposure to the miners may be a good idea -- RIO, BHP, and possibly SCCO for the copper angle, though it may need a pullback first. The ETF (PICK) is another idea. Looking at some of their high dividends makes it tempting - RIO - 6.8%, BHP - 5.3%. Not bad, and would make up for the higher volatility and somewhat less than stellar long term charts.
The steel sector is another idea. STLD has a decent long term chart, although overbought in the near term. In the nuclear related sector, I've been looking at BWXT as a longer term buy / hold. It's way up though, so maybe on a pullback. They are diversified with both military and commercial sides -
>>> BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells nuclear components in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Government Operations and Commercial Operations. The Government Operations segment designs and manufactures naval nuclear components, reactors, and nuclear fuel; fabrication activities; and supplies proprietary and sole-source valves, manifolds, and fittings to naval and commercial shipping customers. This segment also involved in manufacture of close-tolerance and equipment for nuclear applications; down blend government stockpiles of uranium; receives, stores, characterizes, dissolves, recovers, and purifies uranium-bearing materials; and supplies research reactor fuel elements for colleges, universities, and national laboratories, as well as components for defense applications. The Commercial Operations segment designs and manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, pressure vessels, and reactor components; and other auxiliary equipment, including containers for the storage of nuclear fuel and other high-level nuclear waste. This segment also offers nuclear fuel, fuel handling systems, tooling delivery systems, nuclear grade materials, and precisely machined components, and related services for CANDU nuclear power plants; provides in-plant inspection, maintenance, and modification services, as well as non-destructive examination and tooling/repair solutions; and manufactures medical radioisotopes, radiopharmaceuticals, and medical devices. The company was formerly known as The Babcock & Wilcox Company and changed its name to BWX Technologies, Inc. in June 2015. BWX Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia. <<<
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Bigworld, The Fed guidance is still for 3 cuts this year, and Rickards is predicting July, Nov, and Dec. He says Oct is out since it's too close to the election. Also, skipping June will allow time for more economic and inflation data, so July will be the first cut. The Fed meeting in Nov isn't until late in the month, which is safely clear of the election.
Anyway, sounds like a likely timeline for the cuts. Having % rates coming down 'should' provide a decent tailwind for the stock markets for some time, so I have the stock allocation at 28% - enough to participate but not enough to be a disaster if things get derailed. Fwiw, I have the stock allocation set up with most of it in the S+P 500, so if things come unglued it's an easy exit with that portion, and can then use the proceeds to hedge the individual stock component via a 1X short ETF like SH. Hopefully won't have to, but the option is there if necessary.
<<<
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Xena, While the LWLG deal last June was good to see, it sounds more like a 'kicking the tires' type thing, rather than something that will generate significant revenues anytime soon. But still nice to have that first deal. I assume this is the only official deal so far? The CEO has hinted at more to come, but the overall bearish stock chart may suggest investors are in 'show me' mode. Press releases about higher Gbps speeds are nice, but eventually there needs to be deals, or even (gasp) --> products and revenues. So still seems like it's in the 'story stock' realm, albeit with an interesting story. I've heard LWLG described as the classic 'perpetual startup', but hopefully the breakthrough will come this year. GL with it :o)
>>> Lightwave Logic reaches electro-optic polymer materials commercialization with supply license agreement
June 1, 2023 <<<
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174134080
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Xena, When LWLG signs another deal (or two), I might get interested :o)
Since none of us can sufficiently analyze the science or competitive landscape, it will require an external confirmation --> another deal or two, actual revenues, etc.
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Bigworld, Great to hear the knee is progressing on schedule, so hopefully the microbe analysis on Monday is favorable :o)
With the markets, I figure the 'powers that be' have been trying to keep the financial markets in relative 'kumbaya' mode since the start of the M. East war in Oct. That's when the Fed did it's dovish pivot, and so far it's worked and the bull market continues. Another motivation to keep things on an even keel is the approaching election in Nov, since a stable economy and stock market will help derail Trump's appeal. But the geopolitical landmines out there could easily derail those plans, so lots of risk.
Btw, the gold breakout is looking strong. It took 12 years to form that 'cup + handle', but it finally broke out decisively. According to TA / chart 'rules', the longer a chart pattern takes to develop and mature, the more dramatic can be the eventual breakout. Central banks have reportedly been adding to their gold reserves at a fast clip, in part to diversify away from the US dollar.
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Your arguments are farcical...
The companies you list are customers or collaborators, not competitors.
Barium titanate (BTO) (Lumiphase) this is a substrate obviously, and I know very little about the tech.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barium_titanate
Thin-film lithium niobate (Hyperlight) another substrate
https://www.crystalsubstrates.com/products/lithium-niobate-linbo3
LWLG polymer is what enables them to communicate, that's why Lebby mentioned them. My knowledge is limited, but all it took was a quick Google to get this info. I really suggest you follow the discussion on the LWLG thread.
gfp: I have seen articles about this. The Magnificent Seven rally is topping out. The titans are converting capital gains into cash, then probably buying gold, private security armies and off shore island bunkers. When it all gets flushed in the world economy there will untold levels of turmoil. I'm glad my wife and I don't have kids.
gfp: Precious metals, basic raw materials, and energy are the places to be hedging. I was too early. But I am staying the course.
gfp: The actual aspiration was a piece of cake. I just look the other way. The cultures are not back yet. My surgeon sends them to a special lab that can detect minute levels of bacterial presence. I should hear something by Monday I hope.
gfp: I think it's Karma in reverse. The Deep State has been at war against Donald Trump since 2016. Unprecedented levels of persecution. There aren't 10 men in the entire world that could have withstood the onslaught from all sides and still be standing and fighting. So his rewards from the Truth Social gambit are a cosmic reward. I am happy for him, but even happier that this event is probably driving liberal sheep and their Deep State puppet masters nuts.
>>> What are Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg up to? US billionaires sell $11 billion in stock
Hindustan Times
By HT News Desk
Mar 12, 2024
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/us-billionaires-sell-11-billion-in-stock-what-are-jeff-bezos-mark-zuckerberg-up-to-is-a-financial-disaster-looming-101710144481684.html
American billionaires are selling stocks and not in small numbers at all. So what has happened in the past few days? Apollo Global Management's Leon Black enacted his first-ever sale after 34 years shedding $172.8 million in his equity firm. Walmart's Walton family sold $1.5billion in a week. In final two months of 2023, Mark Zuckerberg sold nearly half a billion dollars of Meta Platforms Inc. shares. Jeff Bezos sold another 14 million Amazon shares, worth around $2.4billion bringing the total number of shares he has sold in the firm to about 50 million.
Experts do not see this as a good sign as they said that this could be because of looming US presidential elections this year. Finance firm consultant Alan Johnson told Fortune last month, 'If you're reading the tea leaves and looking at what may happen with our politics in the next year or so, things are pretty good right now - the markets are up. With our politics and everything else going on geopolitically, maybe it won't be as good a year from now or two years from now."
This coms as S&P 500 has risen more than 27 per cent in the past year adding billions to the portfolios of billionaires. So the stockholders could be taking advantage of current tax breaks which were brought during the Donald Trump administration, the expert said.
But some financial market players believe that this stock dump reflects something larger behind the scenes. American Hartford Gold, a company that shills gold and other metals to investors, said that large liquidations may be a sign of an impending economic dip as Senior Director Mechi Block said that these CEOs were “getting out before the tech bubble bursts”.
"Billionaire CEOs like [Jeff] Bezos, [Mark] Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon, and the Walton family are selling off massive amounts of their own stocks, and analysts think the CEOS may be bracing for an economic downturn," he said, adding, “An overheated stock market continues to climb to new heights as investors feed that frenzy out of fear of missing out, economic insiders are unloading billions of dollars worth of stocks.”
“Meta stock has soared 186 percent, JPMorgan is up nearly 30 percent, and Amazon has actually surged close to 90 percent. All three companies are trading close to record highs,” he explained, adding, “Typically if CEOs are buying shares, it shows a confidence in the future growth potential of that company. It is also possible these billionaire's view from above could be giving them a different perspective of the economy, and where it's headed.”
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gfp: Putin has said that foreign mercenaries are fair game. They have spies and spy satellites as well. And supersonic missiles that can't be brought down by Patriot missiles. Europe's economy is slowly falling apart due to energy constraints. Western Europe should be falling over themselves to stop the Ukraine lunacy and try to repair relations with Russia for energy. Unless the goal is to revert back to 19th century standards of living.
>>> Gold: The Everything Hedge
By Jim Rickards
https://dailyreckoning.com/goldilocks-is-gonna-get-it/
Gold is trading at $2,211 per ounce this afternoon. Since its interim low of $1,832 per ounce on Oct. 5, 2023, gold has posted a 21% gain. That’s in less than six months. Almost half of that gain occurred in the one-month period from Feb. 11 to March 11.
That overall gain is especially impressive considering gold had been stuck in a fairly narrow range of $1,650–2,050 for the past two years. That’s a range of about 10% above and below the midpoint of $1,850. Starting from the high end of that range, gold traversed the entire range to the upside and beyond in just one month.
Now, any reference to “gold prices” is an interesting one. If you treat gold as a commodity, then the price per ounce measured in dollars is one way to think about price.
On the other hand, if you think of gold as money (as I do) then the dollar price is not really a price — it’s a cross-rate similar to euro/dollar (about $1.08 today) or dollar/yen (about 152 today). When analysts say the “price” of gold is $2,211 per ounce, I think of that data as showing the gold/dollar cross-rate = $2,211.
That’s useful because there are two sides to a cross-rate. While most analysts say that gold has rallied from $2,000 to $2,211 per ounce, it is just as valid and perhaps more useful to say that the dollar has crashed from 1/2,000 per ounce to 1/2,211 per ounce.
In this analysis, gold is constant (by weight) and the dollar gets stronger or weaker relative to gold. All of the recent market action points to a weaker dollar.
This mode of analysis also solves another market riddle. Given huge U.S. budget deficits, unprecedented levels of U.S. national debt, slow growth, rising unemployment and persistent inflation, how is it possible that the dollar has been so “strong” lately?
The answer is that it’s only been strong relative to the euro, yen, sterling and some other reserve currencies and as measured by certain dollar indexes (DXY, Bloomberg, etc.) composed of baskets of currencies (but not gold).
But that’s often because those other currencies are issued by countries with debt and growth problems even worse than the U.S.’ Those currencies dropping against the dollar have the look and feel of a good old-fashioned currency war.
It’s only when you use gold as your metric that the real weakness in the dollar becomes apparent, as it should. In effect, certain currencies are weakening against each other but all currencies are weakening against gold.
Returning to the “higher gold price” frame, there are a number of reasons for this trend. The first factor is simple supply and demand. Mining output and recycled gold have been about flat for the past eight years running between 1,100 metric tonnes and 1,250 metric tonnes per year.
At the same time, central bank demand for gold has surged from less than 100 metric tonnes in 2010 to 1,100 metric tonnes in 2022, a 1,000% increase in 12 years. Central bank gold demand remained strong in 2023 with 800 metric tonnes acquired through Sept. 30, 2023. That puts central bank gold demand on track for a new record in 2023. There’s no sign of that demand slowing in 2024.
Constant output with surging demand by central banks does not by itself explain the recent surge in gold prices, but it is a contributor. Importantly, continued strong demand by central banks puts a floor under gold prices. This sets up what we describe as an asymmetric trade where downside is limited but upside is open-ended.
The second factor driving gold prices higher is the need for hedging. This is not the same as inflation hedging. It covers a larger list of risks including geopolitical risk, risks of escalation in the Ukraine and Gaza wars, Houthi efforts to close the Red Sea and Suez Canal, increasing risks of war with China and the intrinsic risk of a senile president of the United States.
As the list of risks grows longer and potentially more dangerous, the need for a hedging asset such as gold that does not rely on any nation-state for its value increases. I call gold the everything hedge.
Finally, gold prices are being driven higher by U.S. threats to steal $300 billion in U.S. Treasury securities from the Russian Federation. Those assets were legally purchased by the Central Bank of Russia as part of their reserve position.
The actual securities are held in custody in digital form at European banks, U.S. banks and the Brussels-based Euroclear clearinghouse. Only about $20 billion of those Treasury securities are held by U.S. banks; the majority are held by Euroclear. Those assets were frozen by the United States at the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Freezing assets means the Russians cannot collect interest or sell or transfer the assets or pledge them as collateral. Asset freezes are used frequently by the U.S. including in the cases of Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela and other nations. Often the assets are frozen for years but ultimately released to the owner as happened in the case of Iran after 2012.
Now the U.S. wants to go further and actually seize the assets, which may be viewed as outright theft under international law. The U.S. proposes to use the $300 billion to finance the war in Ukraine. European entities have expressed considerable uncertainty about this plan but the U.S. has maintained the pressure and wants to complete the theft before the June and July summits of G7 leaders and NATO members.
If the U.S. steals these assets, Russia will likely confiscate an equivalent amount of industrial and commercial assets located in Russia and owned by German, French, and Italian interests among others.
The bottom line is that if U.S. Treasury securities are not a safe investment, then securities of Germany, Italy, France, the U.K. and Japan are no better. The only reserve asset free of this kind of digital theft is gold. Nations are beginning to diversify into gold in order to insulate themselves from digital confiscation by the collective West.
Finally, there’s an interesting bit of math here, which I’ve explained in the past that shows each $100 per ounce increment in the price of gold is a smaller percentage gain because the denominator is larger.
That makes each $100 milestone ($2,400, $2,500, $2,600) easier to reach than the one before. People don’t really notice this; they just focus on the dollar amount of the gains. But this explains how price rallies gather crazy momentum.
All of these trends — flat output, rising central bank demand, hedging, protection against digital confiscation and simple momentum — will continue. Based on those trends, one would expect the gold price rally to continue as well.
The trend is gold’s friend.
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>>> BlackRock Launches Copper Miners ETF in Amsterdam
ETF.com
The issuer aims to benefit from the metal’s role in the energy transition.
by Theo Andrew, Jamie Gordon
|
Jun 26, 2023
https://www.etf.com/sections/news/blackrock-launches-copper-miners-etf-amsterdam
LONDON - BlackRock has extended its thematics range with the launch of a copper miners ETF, ETF Stream can reveal.
The iShares Copper Miners UCITS ETF (COPM) listed on the Euronext Amsterdam on 21 June with a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.55%.
It tracks the Stoxx Global Copper Miners index, providing exposure to companies globally with significant exposure to the copper mining industry via revenue percentage or market share.
Companies in the top 50% of market share of the copper ore mining industry will be selected.
BlackRock said the industry typically offers an attractive dividend yield and high sensitivity to the copper price, making a “liquid and tradable proxy candidate” for direct copper commodity exposure.
It added the industry is set to benefit from the net zero transition, given the commodity’s role in electronification across renewable energy, electric vehicles and broader infrastructure.
Copper’s role in the transition has fueled huge demand over the past few years, while limited supply and mining challenges have opened up investment opportunities, the asset manager said.
Demand Set to Outstrip Supply
According to JP Morgan, the world will need a 54% larger supply of copper by 2030 on the current net-zero path, with demand set to outstrip supply by six million tons per year by the end of the decade.
Omar Moufti, thematic and sector product specialist at BlackRock, said: “Clients are becoming more intentional in their climate transition investment ambitions and exposure to copper miners allows them to tap into themes in electrification, such as electric vehicles, renewable power, and infrastructure expansion.
“Clean technology costs continue to decline with increased deployment. And our analysis of the pathways for a transition to a low-carbon economy shows a need for increased investment in new copper mine capacity to accommodate continued growth.”
Despite this, the copper price has remained volatile this year reflecting concerns that China’s rebound was not materialising. Copper exchange-traded products recorded a stellar start to the year on the China re-opening story.
COPM is the second copper miners ETF in Europe, following the launch of the Global X Copper Miners UCITS ETF (COPX) in November 2021. The ETF has since amassed $58m in assets under management (AUM).
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Xena, >> we have a lack of expertise re this technology <<
Yes, an understatement. And hardly the basis for a mega investment, is it? I've seen this so many times with these 'story' stocks - people fall in love with the stock and ride it down, down.
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I don't have the necessary expertise to know what I'm talking about in this area (photonics, AI, quantum computing, et al.), but the Bible I understand very well.
Openlight is another company in this field, but, agreed, we have a lack of expertise re this technology.
https://openlightphotonics.com/newsroom/openlight-partners-with-jabil-to-address-accelerating-demand-for-optical-components-in-ai-ml-and-datacenter-applications
>>> China’s top copper smelters agree on rare joint production cuts
Reuters
March 13, 2024
https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-top-copper-smelters-agree-on-rare-joint-production-cuts-sources-say/
Chinese top copper smelters on Wednesday came to a rare agreement to jointly embark on production cuts at some loss-making plants as they seek to cope with a shortage of raw material, according to sources with knowledge of the plans.
There were no specific rates or volumes set for the cuts and each smelter will make their own assessment of reductions they want to implement, said the sources who were not authorized to speak on the matter and declined to be identified.
The agreement, made at a meeting in Beijing, comes as fees to process copper concentrate on the spot market have dropped to their lowest in more than a decade.
Chinese top producers Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, Jinchuan Group and China Copper did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Chinese smelters have been rapidly expanding their capacity over the past year to get ahead of an expected surge in copper demand from sectors related to the green energy transition such as electric vehicles or wind and solar energy.
But several mine disruptions globally, including the shutdown of the big Cobre mine in Panama owned by First Quantum, have meant copper concentrate is now in short supply.
Spot copper treatment charges (TCs) in China tumbled to $11.20 per metric ton on Friday, representing a 76% drop in just two months and the lowest level since 2013, when pricing rating agency Fastmarkets started publishing the weekly index.
“I think this is a turning point for the continued sharp decline in spot TC/RCs over the last few months,” said Brian Peng, a copper analyst at research and consultancy firm CRU.
Cutting production and extending maintenance shutdowns would help to ease tightness in concentrate supply over the coming months, he said.
“But it’s important to note that there are around 1.7 million tons per year new ex-China smelter projects that is expected to come online in the second half, which will put more pressure on global concentrate supply,” Peng added.
The sources also said that other measures, including using more copper blister in production to lower consumption of copper ore concentrate, were also discussed during the meeting.
Top smelters, acknowledging the shortages, proposed production cuts in a meeting in January but no action took place, according to people familiar with the matter.
China’s refined copper output in the first two months this year climbed 9.2% to 1.75 million metric tons, according to a survey by research house Antaike of 22 producers covering over 80% of China’s total capacity.
Imports of copper concentrate came in at 4.66 million tons for the first two months of the year, up 0.6% compared to the same period a year earlier, customs data showed.
The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a 22-month high on Wednesday following the news.
<<<
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You aren't getting the idea... The physical properties of the patented LWLG polymer will allow them to increase speed and lower temperature and power consumption. It can't be done any other way, no matter who you are or what you know.
I forget what those ampakines were supposed to treat. Do you remember? We didn't really understand the science at all - naive investors.
Ombow, A key lesson learned from the Cortex debacle was to not be mesmerized by the cool science -
She blinded me with science -
Ombow, I see Lebby mentioned 3 technologies to watch within this space (see below), and it looks like Lumiphase and Hyperlight are still privately held. So who will win? Who knows.
On the other hand, if LWLG had a nice looking stock chart, I might be interested despite of my complete ignorance of the science. For example, I own a little NVDA and some semi stocks like AVGO, KLAC, not because I understand them, but because their business is obviously thriving, as evidenced by their great long term charts. A 10 year chart I can analyze. The science and competitive landscape within 'electro optical photonics', forget it.
- Barium titanate (BTO) (Lumiphase)
- Thin-film lithium niobate (Hyperlight)
- Electro-optic polymers (LWLG)
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174134080
>>> Meanwhile, he says that the market is beginning to warm to new approaches towards component development as the industry grapples with how to support future optical transmission rates and chip I/O requirements. He pointed to the attention being given to barium titanate (BTO) and thin-film lithium niobate approaches alongside electro-optic polymers as evidence of this trend.<<<
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Some of the info in this post is misleading. Dec. 13, 2023 is the date of the quote, but Ayar Labs was founded in 2015.
"About Ayar Labs
The company was founded in 2015 and is funded by a number of domestic and international venture capital firms, as well as strategic investors such as GlobalFoundries, Hewlett Packard Pathfinder, Intel Capital, Lockheed Martin Ventures and NVIDIA."
I don't think you're getting the idea.
If you don't mind me asking, how much money do you have invested in this turkey?
So he would know how to use LWLG's polymer to lower operating temperatures..
Uh-huh,
"Who is the founder of Ayar Labs?
Wade is recognized as a photonics technology pioneer. Before he founded Ayar Labs, Wade led the team that designed the optics in the world's first processor to communicate using light. Wade and his co-founders invented technology at MIT and UC Berkeley from 2010-2015, leading to the formation of Ayar Labs.Dec 13, 2023"
https://ayarlabs.com/
https://ayarlabs.com/leadership/
Oops - I misspelled Ayar (Ayer) in my search..
Here is a more recent response:
I suggest you post any questions on the LWLG board... Ayar is expected to be a customer.
Ayar Labs -
https://ayarlabs.com/supernova/?utm_campaign=240223-feb-newsletter&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=300177285&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8z4xhyY3xHxST6-qu4ZZSjl1wKB8c9HaHbGPZDQL1cMMz-oeACwpHipE5G4hJG-3ojySI3tnwwIx9qk-qca06SnOi_qGm1666cmtJ-tHgmRRpZxaQ&utm_content=300177285&utm_source=hs_email
https://ayarlabs.com/revolutionary-optics-glass-waveguide-redefine-ai-telecom-data-center-infrastructures/?utm_campaign=240223-feb-newsletter&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=300177285&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_oM4mlZx2rz37cFUxGi0inwLlYX-2lRAS8iq_DZBuwl_E_Ke219j2CQ4gjfZHexKFIXaOgP-YHXrTT_5-plNz2JaV6P_g_BTmFlOrVqCU36dz3k60&utm_content=300177285&utm_source=hs_email
LWLG is about to change computers as we know them. It's not "just one arrow".
It is a volcano of IP and cutting edge tech.
"Ubiquitous" is the term used by C.E.O. Lebby to describe their market penetration.
The guy playing lead did a really fine job. Do you know his name?
It looks like it's just an early stage company with just one arrow in the quiver right now. Might be worth following what they do in the future.
Ombow, >> biotech <<
I figure the problem with biotech is that it's so advanced and specialized, none of us can understand it enough to base an informed decision on. Other areas of science (LWLG) are similar -- just too advanced and complex to evaluate the winners and losers, unless you work in the field directly and have a PhD, and even then it would be difficult.
Warren Buffett says us mere mortals should stay in our 'circle of competency' when it comes to investing. He recommends we use an index fund (S+P 500) for the bulk of our stock allocation. That's what I do, and then have small positions in a lot of companies that have proven track records (as evidenced by their nice long term charts). I also have some 'turnarounds' - nice long term stocks that have hit some headwinds but should bounce back. Beyond that are some tiny positions in somewhat riskier stocks to keep things interesting, but these are minute amounts and for fun / general interest. Anyway, so far it seems like a pretty good balance, and the stock allocation is only 28% of the portfolio, so enough to participate, but not to require daily Tagamet :o)
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