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Microsoft's $MSFT market cap at the start of every year since going public
By: Evan | January 13, 2024
• Microsoft's $MSFT market cap at the start of every year since going public
1986: $690M (Went public in March 1986)
1987: $1.2B
1988: $3B
1989: $3B
1990: $5B
1991: $8.5B
1992: $20B
1993: $26B
1994: $22B
1995: $35B
1996: $50B
1997: $100B
1998: $160B
1999: $350B
2000: $600B
2001: $250B
2002: $360B
2003: $280B
2004: $300B
2005: $290B
2006: $280B
2007: $290B
2008: $325B
2009: $180B
2010: $270B
2011: $235B
2012: $220B
2013: $230B
2014: $300B
2015: $380B
2016: $434B
2017: $480B
2018: $660B
2019: $777B
2020: $1.2T
2021: $1.6T
2022: $2.5T
2023: $1.8T
2024: $2.8T
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Microsoft $MSFT Very Bullish Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape
By: Cheddar Flow | January 8, 2024
• $MSFT Very Bullish Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape
Continuous sweep orders + A lot of premium is a sign of bullish bias
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Microsoft's $MSFT stock performance each full year since going public
By: Savvy Trader | January 4, 2024
• Microsoft's $MSFT stock performance each full year since going public
1987: +124.8%
1988: -1.8%
1989: +63.4%
1990: +73%
1991: +121.8%
1992: +15.1%
1993: -5.6%
1994: +51.7%
1995: +43.6%
1996: +88.3%
1997: +56.4%
1998: +114.6%
1999: +68.4%
2000: -62.8%
2001: +52.7%
2002: -22%
2003: +6.8%
2004: +8.9%
2005: -1%
2006: +15.8%
2007: +20.8%
2008: -44.4%
2009: +60.5%
2010: -6.5%
2011: -4.5%
2012: +5.8%
2013: +44.3%
2014: +27.5%
2015: +22.7%
2016: +15.1%
2017: +40.7%
2018: +20.8%
2019: +57%
2020: +42.5%
2021: +52.5%
2022: -28%
2023: +58.2%
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Microsoft $MSFT - The target for January is the 1.618 extension of the July-October correction at 402. There's a bigger target at the 1.618 extension of the 2022 bear market at 434 that will be reached later in 2024 and an even bigger potential cup & handle target at 480.
By: CyclesFan | January 1, 2024
• $MSFT - The target for January is the 1.618 extension of the July-October correction at 402. There's a bigger target at the 1.618 extension of the 2022 bear market at 434 that will be reached later in 2024 and an even bigger potential cup & handle target at 480.
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Today Goldman Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | December 29, 2023
• Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the DJIA is Microsoft Corporation. MSFT.
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Microsoft's (MSFT) 'iPhone moment' is here declares Wedbush analysts
By: Investing | December 28, 2023
Wedbush raised its price target for tech giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to $450 from $425 in a note to clients Thursday, maintaining its Outperform rating on the stock. Analysts declared in their note that Microsoft's "'iPhone moment' is here."
Wedbush, which sees Microsoft as one of the best ideas for 2024, said the iPhone moment is based on the fact that artificial intelligence (AI) monetization is set to change the company's cloud growth trajectory over the next few years.
"In a nutshell, based on our recent work in the field, we believe over the next 3 years over 60% of its MSFT installed base will ultimately be on this AI functionality for the enterprise/ commercial, which changes the landscape for Nadella & Co going forward," analysts said. "While AI use cases will build markedly in FY24 its clear FY25 for Redmond remains the true inflection year of AI growth with pricing, beta customers, and use cases all being rolled out over the next 3-6 months."
Wedbush believes the stock has yet to price in what they view as the next wave of cloud and AI growth coming to the MSFT story in FY24 with a "strong competitive cloud edge vs. Amazon and Google." Furthermore, analysts said their firm's recent partner checks have been incrementally strong around Co-Pilot deployments with MSFT customers, and they estimate this could add another ~$25 billion to the company's top line by FY25.
"Over the last few weeks, in our numerous conversations with Microsoft customers, partners, and field checks, it has become crystal clear to us that the monetization opportunities around deploying AI and ChatGPT in the cloud is a transformational opportunity across the industry with Redmond in the driver's seat," added analysts.
They declared: "We continue to believe this is a '1995 Moment' with a transformational tech spending wave not seen since the start of the Internet."
Microsoft shares have performed well in 2023, climbing more than 52%. Ahead of the open on Thursday, they are up around 0.3%, trading above the $375 mark.
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Microsoft $MSFT Millions Worth of Put Sellers
By: Cheddar Flow | December 26, 2023
• $MSFT Millions Worth of Put Sellers
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Wishing everyone Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
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Microsoft $MSFT ER flow..the buyer INTENDS to hold through...could be used for a runup and punt for a degen
By: FLOWrensics | December 22, 2023
• $MSFT ER flow..the buyer INTENDS to hold through...could be used for a runup and punt for a degen
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Microsoft $MSFT ~$2 Million ITM Call Sweepers
By: Cheddar Flow | December 22, 2023
• $MSFT ~$2M ITM Call Sweepers
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Microsoft ending support for Windows 10 could send 240 million PCs to landfills - report
By: Investing | December 21, 2023
(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s plan to end support for Windows 10 operating system could result in about 240 million personal computers (PCs) being disposed, potentially adding to landfill waste, Canalys Research said.
The electronic waste from these PCs could weigh an estimated 480 million kilograms, equivalent to 320,000 cars.
While many PCs could remain functional for years post the end of OS support, Canalys warned demand for devices without security updates could be low.
Microsoft announced a plan to provide security updates for Windows 10 devices until October 2028 for an undisclosed annual price.
If the pricing structure for extended Windows 10 support mirrors past trends, migrating to newer PCs could be more cost-effective, increasing the number of older PCs heading to scrap, Canalys said.
Microsoft aims to discontinue support for Windows 10 by October 2025. The next generation of the OS, anticipated to bring advanced artificial intelligence technology to PCs, could potentially boost the sluggish PC market.
Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the environmental impact of disposal of Windows 11-incompatible devices.
Hard drives used in personal computers and data storage servers are recycled to gather materials for use in electric vehicle motors and even renewable power generation.
"Turning end-of-life computers into the magnets that power sustainable technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines will help meet the rising global demand for electricity," said Noveon Magnetics Chief Commercial Officer Peter Afiuny.
Afiuny added hard drives are often discarded before they reach the end of their functional lifespan, creating an excess of rare earth magnetic material waste.
Battery recycling firm Redwood (NYSE:RWT) Materials said batteries can be nearly infinitely recycled to recover metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper.
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Microsoft $MSFT Repeat ITM Buyer
By: Theta Warrior | December 20, 2023
• $MSFT Repeat ITM Buyer.
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Endless Bullish Tech Flow: $MSFT, $META, $SPX
By: Cheddar Flow | December 20, 2023
• Endless Bullish Tech Flow
$MSFT, $META, $SPX
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$MSFT & $NVDA Calls Flooding The Tape This Morning
By: Cheddar Flow | December 20, 2023
• $MSFT & $NVDA Calls Flooding The Tape This Morning
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Microsoft Azure gaining steam but Amazon's AWS still holds top spot - Jefferies
By: Investing | December 20, 2023
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure is gaining steam in the cloud market, according to Jefferies analysts in a note Wednesday. However, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Web Services (AWS) "still wears the crown."
Jefferies surveyed 40 U.S. CIOs and found that both platforms are best positioned to gain incremental spend over the next two years, with 80% of CIOs planning to boost cloud spending in 2024.
According to the firm, Azure screened positively, with a higher share of CIOs planning to spend "significantly more" over the next 24 months.
"We continue to believe AWS is well positioned to capture growing cloud spend and drive large incremental dollar gains, supported by its strong market position, broad product suite, strong partner network and improving AI positioning," said Jefferies.
For AWS, 80% of CIOs expect their cloud spending to increase year-over-year in 2024, while 3% expect it will decline, and 18% expect it will be unchanged.
"We believe the cloud industry is setting up for an acceleration in '24 as cloud cost optimizations fade and companies look to restart their digital transformations," said analysts at the firm.
However, they noted that AI and ML are not major drivers behind why customers intend to increase cloud spend. Instead, customers who plan to increase their AWS and Azure spend said compute and storage were the two primary reasons.
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Microsoft $MSFT Headed for that golden fib extension at $400?
By: TrendSpider | December 18, 2023
• $MSFT Headed for that golden fib extension at $400?
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Very Bullish Microsoft $MSFT Flow Hitting The Tape
By: Cheddar Flow | December 18, 2023
• Very Bullish $MSFT Flow Hitting The Tape
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Microsoft $MSFT ER run up play..$2.3+ Million Calls
By: FLOWrensics | December 18, 2023
• $MSFT ER run up play..
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Microsoft $MSFT - It looks like it's building a small bull flag on the weekly chart. Once the pullback is complete, I expect a rally to at least the 1.618 extension of the July-October decline at 402 during January.
By: CyclesFan | December 17, 2023
• $MSFT - It looks like it's building a small bull flag on the weekly chart. Once the pullback is complete, I expect a rally to at least the 1.618 extension of the July-October decline at 402 during January.
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BofA has 'more conviction' about Microsoft's durable growth from cloud and AI
By: Investing | December 14, 2023
BofA analysts lifted the Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) price target to $430 from $415 per share in a note Thursday, reiterating a Buy rating on the stock.
The firm's note states that the investment bank is now more convinced about the company's durable growth from its cloud and AI products.
BofA met with the CFOs of Microsoft’s business units at Microsoft’s Redmond, WA, headquarters on Tuesday. "We come away from the meetings with higher conviction on the durability of growth in the core Office and Azure growth franchises," analysts said.
"We believe that there is potential for commercial office to accelerate from the current mid-teens growth level in the coming quarters from the gradual contribution from the new M365 copilot. We estimate that each 1% penetration represents $576 million revenue and 1.5% incremental growth," analysts added.
The investment bank cited the Azure business, the ongoing ramp of OpenAI, and the potential for improving public cloud workload migration exiting the tougher macro as factors likely to drive upside to the firm's estimates for mid-20s growth.
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Macquarie raises Microsoft’s price target, bullish on AI Copilot
By: Investing | December 13, 2023
Macquarie raised its price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to $430.00 from $405.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating, saying shares are undervalued on the AI copilot opportunities.
The analysis suggests that Microsoft's current AI copilot portfolio could bring in approximately $9.1 billion in additional revenue. This increase in revenue is expected to come with a high gross margin ranging between 61% and 91%, potentially leading to a $0.49 increase in EPS by the fiscal year 2026 in the base-case scenario.
In an optimistic scenario with higher uptake and user density per machine, the EPS boost could reach as much as $2.17. Conversely, a more conservative estimate, factoring in lower uptake and heavy usage by a smaller group of power users impacting gross margins, predicts a $0.06 increase in EPS.
The approach to assessing the revenue potential involves analyzing the adoption rates of each AI copilot product by the end of the fiscal year 2025. Insights from AI industry leaders indicate that enterprises are likely to spend the 2024 fiscal year evaluating and pilot-testing these applications. This process is expected to lead to significant adoption starting in 2025, once the initial assessments are completed and data on the effectiveness of AI copilots is available.
“In our base case, we estimate that Microsoft could generate ~$7.3bn of incremental ARR from M365 Copilot by the end of FY'25E from the ~20mn users that our 5% uptake rate Implies. We believe this is reasonable as M365 Copilot is available for purchase at a price of $30/user/month by M365 E3 or E5 customers, or by small and mid-sized businesses with M365 Business Standard or Business Premium licenses,” commented the analysts.
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Today Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | December 13, 2023
• Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the $DJIA is Microsoft Corporation. $MSFT.
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Microsoft Insider Trading Alert: Chief People Officer Kathleen Hogan sold 24,681 $MSFT shares for a total value of $9.1 million. That sale represented approximately 12% of her stake in the company.
By: Barchart | December 12, 2023
• Microsoft Insider Trading Alert
Chief People Officer Kathleen Hogan sold 24,681 $MSFT shares for a total value of $9.1 million. That sale represented approximately 12% of her stake in the company.
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Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's Buys 8,810 Shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
By: Ark Invest Daily | December 11, 2023
• Cathie Wood and Ark Invest's trade activity from today 12/11.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Could Be Worth Over $500 Per Share Based on Its Massive Free Cash Flow
By: Barchart | December 11, 2023
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock is still undervalued based on its free cash flow upside in the next year. MSFT stock could be worth 39% more or $518 per share based on $96 billion in FCF estimates next year. This is also based on a potential 2.5% FCF yield valuation.
I show how this works out in this article below. I also show a cheap way for existing shareholders to play this for extra income by shorting out-of-the-money (OTM) put options.
I already discussed this in my prior Barchart article on Nov. 14, but now I am updating this projection. Since then, MSFT stock has risen to $374.23 as of Friday, Dec. 8.
FCF Estimates Close To $100 Billion In The Next 12 Months
My target price is based on its free cash flow (FCF) and where it could rise in the next 12 months (NTM). For example, it made $20.7 billion in FCF in its latest quarter ending Sept. 30, according to page 5 of its shareholder deck. That was up 22% YoY.
Microsoft shareholder deck FY 2024 Q1 ending Sept. 30, 2023 - page 5
More importantly, this represented 36.6% of the total revenue of $56.5 billion for the quarter. That 37% FCF margin implies that if sales reach $243 billion this fiscal year (ending June 30, based on analysts' estimates for 2024) free cash flow could rise to $90 billion. That is seen by multiplying $243 billion by 0.37.
And for the year ending June 2025, analysts forecast $276.75 billion, FCF could rise to $102.4 billion. That implies that the average FCF estimate over the NTM is $96.2 billion.
That is close to $100 billion in FCF projections sometime in the next 2 years. How will the market value this?
MSFT Stock Could Be Worth $518 Per Share
Here is how I think the market will value MSFT stock. In the last 12 months (LTM) Microsoft has generated $95.967 billion in cash flow from operations (CFFO). After deducting $31.741 billion in capex spending, its LTM FCF was $63.226 billion. These figures can be seen in Seeking Alpha's cash flow statements page for the LTM ending Sept. 30.
Now since Microsoft presently has a market capitalization of $2,773 billion, that means that the market values the company with a 2.28% FCF metric. This is seen by dividing its $63.2 billion by its market cap (i.e., $63.22b / $2,773b = 0.0228).
So, we can use that FCF yield metric to value its NTM FCF, i.e., $96.2 billion. For example, if we use a more conservative FCF yield of 2.5% we get a market value estimate of $3,848 billion (i.e., $96.2b/.025 = $3,848 billion).
That market value estimate is 38.8% over today's market cap of $2,773 billion. In other words, MSFT stock is worth 39% more. That puts its price target at $518 per share (i.e., 1.39 x $374.23 per share).
So how can existing shareholders play this?
Shorting OTM Puts For Extra Income
One way for investors in MSFT stock to make money while they wait for the stock to hit this price target is to sell short out-of-the-money (OTM) put options. It's best to focus on puts that expire in near-term expiration periods like the Dec. 29 period, for example. That is just 3 weeks away.
For example, the $357.50 strike price put trades for $1.95 on the bid side. That play is 3% out-of-the-money (i.e., below today's price) and yields 0.545% (i.e., $1.95 / $357.50).
A more conservative play is the $350 strike price which trades for 99 cents. That is 5% OTM and yields 0.282% to the short seller of these puts.
MSFT put options expiring Dec. 29 - Barchart - As of Dec. 11, 2023
In any case, the annualized returns for both are still attractive. For example, the $357.50 strike price put yield works out to an annualized expected return (ER) of 9.27% (i.e., 0.545% x 17). This assumes the same trade can be repeated 17 times a year. Obviously, that won't always happen, but the ER calculation highlights the potential return at this rate.
The $350 strike price put yield works out to an annualized ER of 4.80% (i.e., 0.283% x 17). This has less of a chance of ever getting exercised since the strike price is 5% below today's price. But even if that happens the investor's obligation is simply to buy 100 MSFT shares at $350 per share. That would be done by the $35,000 that the investor has to secure with the brokerage firm at the time of entering the order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at $350 per share for expiration on Dec. 29.
The bottom line is the MSFT is worth almost 40% more. Existing investors can get paid by shorting OTM strike prices in near-term expiration periods.
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Microsoft's $MSFT 15-year seasonality gets increasingly bullish into the holidays... If we get a Santa rally this year, watch this one to be a leader!
By: TrendSpider | December 11, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft's 15-year seasonality gets increasingly bullish into the holidays...
If we get a Santa rally this year, watch this one to be a leader!
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Microsoft $MFST 21D held and money flowing back in. ATH coming? Looks it
By: Options Mike | December 10, 2023
• $MFST 21D held and money flowing back in.
ATH coming? Looks it.
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WHAT IN HELL IS WRONG WITH MICROSOFT????? EDGE WON'T LET ME MAKE A CREDIT CARD PAYMENT WITHOUT FIRST SIGNING INTO THEIR ACCOUNT AND REGISTERING MY CARD NUMBER... ITS NONE OF THEIR BUSINESS!!!!!! I CLOSED EDGE AND USED A DIFFERENT BROWSER!!!!!!!!
F MICROSFT!!!!!!!!!
Microsoft $MSFT Call Writer
By: Theta Warrior | December 4, 2023
• $MSFT Call Writer.
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Microsoft $MFST much needed break, 370 support then the 21D.. levels to watch
By: Options Mike | December 3, 2023
• $MFST much needed break,
370 support then the 21D.. levels to watch.
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Microsoft $MSFT - At the bull market high in late 2021 it started forming a cup & handle pattern that continued the rally out of the 2020 low. The depth of the cup was roughly 130 points. Therefore, the breakout that occurred in November has a target of around 480 by late 2024.
By: CyclesFan | December 2, 2023
• $MSFT - At the bull market high in late 2021 it started forming a cup & handle pattern that continued the rally out of the 2020 low. The depth of the cup was roughly 130 points. Therefore, the breakout that occurred in November has a target of around 480 by late 2024.
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Bill Gates and other billionaire 'Controligarchs' are pushing for global digital IDs, centralized control and a 'paywall around your life' - Seamus Bruner
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-11-28/Bill-Gates-and-other-billionaire-Controligarchs-are-pushing-for-global-digital-IDs-centralized-control-and-a-paywall-around-your-life-Seamus-Bruner.html $MSFT
MSFT Stock At Record High: Is Now the Time to Buy Before It Skyrockets Further?
By: Karl Montevirgen | November 30, 2023
• MSFT stock price surges past its 52-week high but. pulls back, closing just shy of $379
• Investors should watch for dips and resistance-turned-support levels for long entries
• Microsoft's massive investment in OpenAI could help push the stock price higher
While Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure contends for the top spot in the cloud computing arena, trailing behind Amazon (AMZN), its $1 billion investment in OpenAI, and the hand it played in resolving the company's recent debacle, shows how prominently Microsoft is riding the AI tiger.
Investors, too, must be getting the message, as the market has pushed MSFT's stock beyond its 52-week high threshold.
The stock went above $379.00 in Wednesday's trading session, and, with no historical resistance ahead, anyone looking to go long might wonder where a good entry price to open a position might be, despite a slight pullback.
At the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, MSFT bounced off its 200-week simple moving average. At least that gave bulls a reference point, with both serving as ideal entry points (see weekly chart of MSFT below).
CHART 1: WEEKLY CHART OF MICROSOFT STOCK. The stock is in all-time high territory. Where to from here?
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
But having broken above its all-time high threshold, it's hard to tell whether MSFT stock is skyrocketing or whether its sky-high valuations are subject to the forces of market gravity.
Also, fundamentally-based projections aren't much help here—they range anywhere from $390 to $450 a share. So, if you're looking to go long, it helps to assess whether the stock is currently overbought and if a dip might be forthcoming. For that, we'd have to look at the daily chart of MSFT stock (see below).
If you look at the relative strength index (RSI), now falling from 70, you can spot a slight divergence between the price rise and the RSI declining from "overbought" territory. MSFT may be pulling back now, but it's too early to tell if the pullback will continue in the coming sessions.
If it does continue to slide, we're looking at former resistance-turned-support levels as possible prices to anticipate a bullish bounce. This is punctuated by a thickening bullish Ichimoku Cloud, which, if you can remember, provides a range of potential support.
Why the cloud? The wider range complements the specific price support levels of $365 and $350. A pullback to this range, starting at the top-most $365 level and followed by a bounce, might provide you with an optimal entry point to get long MSFT, should you want to add it to your portfolio.
Note January 31, 2024 on your calendar. That's when MSFT drops its next earnings report. Right now, the buying craze is also centered on its ties with OpenAI. So keep an eye on any developments or news as we count down to January of the new year.
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Microsoft $MSFT Aggressive $6.7M Call Sweepers
By: Cheddar Flow | November 29, 2023
• $MSFT Aggressive $6.7M Call Sweepers
This type of premium, paired with a short expiration, is rare to see on Microsoft
Vol>OI so these were opening orders
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Microsoft $MSFT $3.6 Million Put • Strike: 380 • Expiration: 12/15/23
By: Cheddar Flow | November 29, 2023
• $MSFT Unusual $3.6M Put
Strike: 380
Expiration: 12/15/23
*Above the Ask*
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$MSFT EOD OTM sweepers into the 12/01/23 $392.50 CALLS - 7.9K contracts/$297 premium
By: FLOWrensics | November 28, 2023
• $MSFT EOD OTM sweepers into the 12/01/23 $392.50 CALLS - 7.9K contracts/$297 premium.
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Microsoft Co. (MSFT) is Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc.'s Largest Position
By: MarketBeat | November 25, 2023
• Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc. increased its stake in Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT) by 26.9% in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 1,635,576 shares of the software giant's stock after purchasing an additional 346,918 shares during the quarter. Microsoft comprises about 8.5% of Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc.'s holdings, making the stock its largest position. Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc.'s holdings in Microsoft were worth $546,019,000 as of its most recent filing with the SEC...
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$MSFT - The rally towards 480 by late 2024 is in progress. There's likely to be some sort of pullback in the next 2 weeks. Once the pullback is over it's headed higher into the 1st or 2nd week of January with the target being the 1.618 extension of the recent correction at 402
By: CyclesFan | November 25, 2023
• $MSFT - The rally towards 480 by late 2024 is in progress. There's likely to be some sort of pullback in the next 2 weeks. Once the pullback is over it's headed higher into the 1st or 2nd week of January with the target being the 1.618 extension of the recent correction at 402.
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MSFT new 52 week high
Microsoft $MSFT sent an internal memo to all employees regarding the OpenAI saga
By: Evan | November 22, 2023
• Microsoft $MSFT sent an internal memo to all employees regarding the OpenAI saga
Here's the memo via The Verge.
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Today Microsoft (MSFT) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | November 22, 2023
• Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the DJIA is Microsoft.
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