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Microsoft $MSFT $1.1 Million Put • Strike: 355 • Expiration: 12/29/23
By: Cheddar Flow | November 21, 2023
• $MSFT $1.1M OTM Put
Strike: 355
Expiration: 12/29/23
*At the Ask*
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Call Traders Picked Up Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Ahead of Record Peak
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 20, 2023
• MSFT is on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks that attracted the highest weekly options volume in the last 10 days
• The software giant hit record highs earlier today
The shares of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) hit a fresh record high of $377.10 earlier today, now up 1.5% at $375.25 at last check. The stock has charged higher on the charts of late, fresh off its fourth-straight weekly win and above all moving averages between the 20- and 320-day trendlines, with the former providing support through October.
Microsoft stock is a staple amongst options traders, and the past two weeks have been no different amid its most recent run. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks that have attracted the highest weekly options volume in the last 10 days, MSFT has seen 2,682,497 calls and 1,738,973 puts exchanged during this time. The most popular contract over this period was the November 375 call, followed by the 372.50 call in the same monthly series.
These options traders are in luck at the moment, too. MSFT is seeing attractively priced premium at the moment, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 20%, which ranks in the low 10th percentile of its annual range.
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MSFT new 52 week high
Microsoft $MSFT Hit late on OpenAI CEO kicked out, more high profile execs gone now too... 8D held for now, dip the 21D likely a gift
By: Options Mike | November 19, 2023
• $MSFT Hit late on OpenAI CEO kicked out, more high profile execs gone now too...
8D held for now, dip the 21D likely a gift.
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MSFT new 52 week high
$MSFT - Boom! After the cup and handle pattern was activated last week it made a new all time high on Friday reaching 370. The minimal target of the cup and handle pattern is 480. The next major high is due in the 4th quarter of 2024
By: CyclesFan | November 11, 2023
• $MSFT - Boom! After the cup and handle pattern was activated last week it made a new all time high on Friday reaching 370. The minimal target of the cup and handle pattern is 480. The next major high is due in the 4th quarter of 2024.
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Microsoft $MSFT is off to a red-hot start this month, and seasonality suggest it could be just the start. Over the last decade, the stock has fallen just once in November, with an average return of +3.90%
By: TrendSpider | November 8, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft is off to a red-hot start this month, and seasonality suggest it could be just the start
Over the last decade, the stock has fallen just once in November, with an average return of +3.90%.
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$MSFT ... the biggest S&P 500 company by market cap ... at an all-time high right now, up 8 sessions in a row
By: Mike Zaccardi | November 7, 2023
• $MSFT ... the biggest S&P 500 company by market cap ... at an all-time high right now, up 8 sessions in a row.
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Bull Signal Could Boost Big Tech Giant Microsoft (MSFT) to New Highs
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 6, 2023
• Microsoft is tearing up the charts
• The equity is within striking distance of record highs
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock is already outperforming the broader market, boasting a 49% year-to-date lead versus a 13.9% gain by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) in the same time period. The equity is on a six-day winning streak, with 10 gains out of the last 11 sessions, as it looks to reclaim its July 18 all-time high of $366.78. What's more, a historically bullish signal is flashing for MSFT that may indicate the rally still has plenty of steam.
According to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, today's peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which has been a bullish combination for the stock in the past. White's data points to eight other signals over the last five years when the equity was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) was in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower.
This is now the case with Microsoft stock's SVI of 19%, which is in the 4th percentile of its annual range. One month after these signals, the shares were higher 75% of the time, averaging a 3.4% gain. From its current perch of $356.58, a similar move would put Microsoft stock at a new record high of roughly $368 per share.
A sentiment shift in the options pits could also generate tailwinds. This is per MSFT's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.92 that stands in the 82nd percentile of annual readings, indicating a put-bias amongst these traders.
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Microsoft (MSFT): Year-to-date Inflows Send Shares Surging
By: Lucas Downey | November 5, 2023
• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) shares keep rising, up 47% in 2023. Unusual money flows reveal why.
Microsoft Shares Attract Big Money Inflows
Want an edge in trading? Follow the Big Money.
What’s Big Money? Said simply, it’s when a stock rises due to institutional demand. Top stocks tend to attract savvy investors.
You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outperforming stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.
The 1-year action tells the story. Each green bar signals unusual increasing volumes in MSFT shares, pushing the stock higher. We believe this to be institutional demand:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Few stocks have charts this strong. Recent green bars suggest healthy demand. But, what about the fundamental story?
Microsoft Fundamental Analysis
Next, I want to make sure the fundamental story is healthy too. As you can see, MSFT has had positive sales & earnings growth in recent years:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+14.1%)
• 3-year EPS growth rate (+19.7%)
Source: FactSet
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary Big Money software has found some big winning stocks over the long-term.
Check this out. Microsoft has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has had buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report many times. The blue bars below shows when MSFT was a top pick:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of the MAPsignals process.
Don’t fight the Big Money!
Microsoft Price Prediction
The MSFT rally has been in place all year. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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Microsoft $MSFT Was a good report, now back above the Earnings high, not far from the ATH of 365. Buy dips to the 8D if you get them and like this one, Extended here
By: Options Mike | November 5, 2023
• $MSFT Was a good report, now back above the Earnings high, not far from the ATH of 365.
Buy dips to the 8D if you get them and like this one, Extended here.
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Microsoft Corp. $MSFT Good report, guidance... FLAT. Didn't hold the gap up. 50D has been support still just above it.
By: Options Mike | October 29, 2023
• $MSFT Good report, guidance... FLAT. Didn't hold the gap up.
50D has been support still just above it.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Could Make $100 Billion in Free Cash Flow, Leaving MSFT Stock Undervalued
By: Barchart | October 27, 2023
Microsoft (MSFT) delivered very profitable quarterly results on Oct. 24 for its fiscal Q1 ending Sept. 30. Given its high free cash flow (FCF) margins, it is now on track to deliver between $90 and $100 billion in FCF over the next 12 months. To some investors, that leaves MSFT stock undervalued.
The company said its revenue was $56.5 billion, up 13% year-over-year (YoY). Moreover, the free cash flow (FCF) generated from this revenue was $20.7 billion, as reported on page 6 of its earnings slide presentation.
This FCF was 22% over last year's figure, showing that Microsoft is growing in its ability to generate cash.
More importantly, it also shows that 36.6% of revenue turned into FCF. That is a very high FCF margin. This portends very good things for MSFT stock going forward.
MSFT Q1 2024 Fiscal results (ending Sept. 30, 2023)
This result was on par with the results it had last quarter, as I described in my previous Barchart article on Sept. 17, “Microsoft is Still Cheap Based on Its Free Cash Flow.” After adjusting for a one-time tax payment, it made $21 billion in FCF, which worked out to a FCF margin of 37.4%.
So, over the past two quarters, its average FCF margin has been 37%. We can use that to set a price target for MSFT stock.
Price Target Based On FCF
Analysts project that Microsoft will make $242.2 billion in revenue this fiscal year ending June 2024 and $274.7 billion next year. So, if we apply the average 37% FCF margin to these figures, FCF could range between $89.6 billion and $101.6 billion over the next 12 months.
That implies that the company continues to grow its revenue, earnings and free cash flow over the next 12 months. It means that FCF could exceed $100 billion, or that analysts will begin predicting this kind of number on a run-rate basis.
That has huge implications for the stock's value. For example, if we use a 3% FCF yield (which is the same as multiplying FCF by 33.3x), its market cap could reach $3.33 trillion.
This is significantly higher than its present $2.44 trillion market cap. It implies that MSFT could rise by 36.4%.
Even if we use a 4.0% FCF yield (i.e., 25x FCF), Microsoft will be worth $2.5 trillion sometime in the next 12 months, or +2.5% from today In other words, the stock might rise between 2.5% and 36.4% based on its FCF generation.
That implies that MSFT stock is worth on average about 19.5% more than today or $400 per share (i.e., 1.195 x $334.40 price today).
Shorting OTM Puts For Extra Income
One way to take advantage of this is to short out-of-the-money put options to generate extra income, all while holding the underlying shares in MSFT. For example, the Nov. 17 put option expiration period shows that the $320 strike price puts, which are over 4% below today's spot price, trade for $3.18 in the midpoint.
That implies that short-put traders can make an immediate 1.0% yield (i.e., $3.18/$320 = 0.994%).
On an annualized basis, this means the expected return is 16.89% (i.e., 0.994 x 17), since there are 17 three-week periods in a year.
MSFT Puts - Expiring Nov. 17 - Barchart - As of Oct. 27
This shows that investors who hold MSFT stock long can make extra income without having to worry that their shares could be called away. The worst that would happen here is that the investor would be forced to buy more shares at the $320 strike price.
But in the meantime, they get to keep the 1% yield, effectively lowering the breakeven price to $316.28 per share, or slightly over 5% below today's price. That is very good downside protection.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock On the Verge of a Powerful Breakthrough
By: Karl Montevirgen | October 25, 2023
• Microsoft's Q1 2024 earnings report beat analyst expectations
• Microsoft's weekly charts suggest a long-term bullish stance for MSFT stock
• Microsoft's daily chart also shows a bullish stance with the stock trading well above its 200-day movign average
When Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings last July, it topped earnings and revenue expectations yet got toppled by the company's guidance for the quarter reported today (Tuesday).
Fears of a worsening economy were prompting organizations to reduce cloud service spending, and that's one of MSFT's biggest revenue drivers. In addition, MSFT laid off 10,000 employees at the start of the month. And for the first time since 2016, the company reduced its R&D spending.
The technicals, however, showed resilient long-term strength despite near-term weakness. And today's earnings smash was the turning point that validated the bullish outlook.
MSFT Stock Price Shows Near-Term Weakness But Long-Term Strength
Let's look at the weekly and daily price action leading to today's earnings report.
CHART 1: WEEKLY CHART OF MSFT STOCK. Note the near-term decline and the levels of support below current prices.
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
On a weekly scale, you can see that MSFT has been on a steady short-term decline since July, its last reporting period, giving two consecutive lower highs (see blue downtrend). However, MSFT prices have also tested and bounced off the historical support level of $311 twice, which shows that this support level has some resilience. Should MSFT break below $311, it would likely find support at $290.75 (pink dashed line). The Relative Strength Index (RSI), for now, shows momentum looking relatively bullish as it's rising over the 50 line. And prices are well above the 200-period simple moving average (red line), which provided critical support twice, in October 2022 and January of this year.
Overall, the longer-term picture looks bullish. However, there's room for near-term weakness. Earnings in the next few quarters will determine the near-term outcome.
Now, let's turn to a daily chart of MSFT stock and compare its performance against the S&P and its sector (using XLK, Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, as a proxy).
CHART 2: DAILY CHART OF MSFT. The stock is trading above its 200-day moving average despite showing a near-term decline. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is showing signs of bullish momentum.
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The daily chart for MSFT, much like its weekly counterpart, reveals that the stock is significantly above its upward-trending 200-day SMA. This suggests strong support if the stock's price dips in the short term. MSFT is outpacing the broader market ($SPX) by about 26% and the Tech sector by about 4.65%. This adds to its bullish stance somewhat.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reveals early signs of bullish momentum. There's a noticeable bullish divergence between the stock's consecutive lower price points and increased buying pressure. Currently, with the CMF above zero, it indicates a trend where more investors are buying the stock than selling it off.
Outcome: MSFT Stock Jumps After Hours as Earnings Stun Wall Street
MSFT's acrobatics are on full display as their net income skyrocketed by a whopping 27%. After two sluggish years, Azure's cloud revenue grew, growing at a clip that had analysts scrambling to adjust their expectations. Shares jumped 5% after hours. MSFT's EPS clocked in at $2.99 per share, topping the $2.65 consensus. Revenue bumped up 13% YoY.
For bulls, $335 would have been a good entry point to go long (but with a deep stop loss at $311). If MSFT plunged on a miss, or if it falls back, then prices are likely to test $311, and the next support level, as mentioned earlier, is $290.75. Should a negative outcome materialize in the intermediate term, it would probably be a wise idea to wait until either level is retested before entering a long position on a bounce.
The Bottom Line
In a market clouded by economic uncertainties, MSFT fired up its engines with a stellar earnings reveal. Despite corporate hiccups and global spending hesitations, Microsoft's stock resilience is unmistakable, outpacing its peers and proving it's not just a player in the big tech arena—it's setting the pace. The charts don't lie: near-term shadows can't dim the long-term luminescence of MSFT's bullish horizon. Still, it's important to watch this space, as even the brightest stars don't guarantee a continuous upward trajectory.
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Today Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | October 25, 2023
• Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the DJIA is Microsoft Corporation. MSFT.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 results top estimates as cloud business shines
By: Investing | October 24, 2023
Microsoft reported Tuesday fiscal first-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates, driven by stronger growth in its cloud business azure.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) rose more than 4% in after-hours trade following the report.
The company announced earnings per share of $2.99 on revenue of $56.52B. Analysts polled by Investing.com anticipated EPS of $2.65 on revenue of $54.53B.
Revenue in productivity and business processes was up 13% to $18.6B and its intelligent cloud business, which includes cloud business Azure, grew 19% to $24.3B.
The company said Azure grew 29% in the quarter, compared with Wall Street estimates for 26%.
Revenue in personal computing was up 3% to $13.7 billion.
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Microsoft stock is UP $15.40 or 4.66% after reporting earnings as I post.
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Microsoft $MSFT Just Reported Earnings...
By: Evan | October 24, 2023
• MICROSOFT $MSFT JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
EPS of $2.99 beating expectations of $2.65
Revenue of $56.5B beating expectations of $54.6B
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$MSFT & $QQQ $3+ Million Put Buy / Call Seller Orders (Bearish)
By: Cheddar Flow | October 24, 2023
• $MSFT & $QQQ $3M+ Put Buy / Call Seller Orders (Bearish).
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History of Microsoft's $MSFT Q3 Revenue and Net Income
By: Evan | October 21, 2023
• History of Microsoft's $MSFT Q3 Revenue and Net Income
Revenue:
1984: $35.1M
1985: $42.6M
1986: $66.8M
1987: $102.6M
1988: $176.4M
1989: $235.2M
1990: $369.4M
1991: $580.5M
1992: $818M
1993: $983M
1994: $1.2B
1995: $2B
1996: $2.3B
1997: $3.1B
1998: $4.2B
1999: $5.4B
2000: $5.8B
2001: $6.1B
2002: $7.7B
2003: $8.2B
2004: $9.2B
2005: $9.7B
2006: $10.8B
2007: $13.8B
2008: $15.1B
2009: $12.9B
2010: $16.2B
2011: $17.3B
2012: $16B
2013: $18.5B
2014: $23.2B
2015: $20.4B
2016: $21.9B
2017: $24.5B
2018: $29.1B
2019: $33.1B
2020: $37.2B
2021: $45.3B
2022: $50.1B
2023: Find out Tuesday
Net Income:
1984: $6M
1985: $8.6M
1986: $15.8M
1987: $21.3M
1988: $36.6M
1989: $49.6M
1990: $87.6M
1991: $144M
1992: $209M
1993: $239M
1994: $316M
1995: $499M
1996: $614M
1997: $663M
1998: $1.7B
1999: $2.2B
2000: $2.2B
2001: $1.3B
2002: $2B
2003: $2.6B
2004: $2.5B
2005: $3.1B
2006: $3.5B
2007: $4.3B
2008: $4.4B
2009: $3.6B
2010: $5.4B
2011: $5.7B
2012: $4.5B
2013: $5.2B
2014: $4.5B
2015: $4.9B
2016: $5.7B
2017: $6.6B
2018: $8.8B
2019: $10.7B
2020: $13.9B
2021: $20.5B
2022: $17.6B
2023: Find out Tuesday
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Let's filter for $MSFT and $AMZN unusual options from the last 10 days worth > 250K that was a sweep order at or above the ask. Overwhelmingly bullish flow.
By: TrendSpider | October 21, 2023
• Let's filter for $MSFT and $AMZN unusual options from the last 10 days worth > 250K that was a sweep order at or above the ask.
Overwhelmingly bullish flow.
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Microsoft $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella received total compensation in 2023 of $48.5 Million down from $54.9M in 2022
By: Evan | October 19, 2023
• Microsoft $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella received total compensation in 2023 of $48.5 Million down from $54.9M in 2022.
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Microsoft in talks to sign on Amazon as customer in $1 billion cloud tools deal - Insider
By: Investing | October 17, 2023
(Reuters) -Microsoft is preparing to bring Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) as a customer for its 365 cloud productivity tools in a deal worth over $1 billion, news site Insider reported on Tuesday, citing an internal document and a person familiar with the matter.
The e-commerce giant has committed the amount for over five years and to secure more than one million Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) 365 license seats, according to the report.
Microsoft, whose shares gained nearly 1% in extended trading following the report, and Amazon did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.
Amazon is expected to start setting up the new systems in early November, the report said, adding that the company currently uses a local, on premise version of Microsoft's Office products.
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Microsoft $MSFT $1.6+ Million OTM Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape
By: Markets & Mayhem | October 17, 2023
• $MSFT $1.6M+ OTM Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape.
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Microsoft Corp. $MSFT with $ATVI deal wrapping up, will be all about earnings now. 340 next target if we push. W formation here
By: Options Mike | October 15, 2023
• $MSFT with $ATVI deal wrapping up, will be all about earnings now. 340 next target if we push
W formation here.
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Microsoft $MSFT Seeing double
By: TrendSpider | October 14, 2023
• $MSFT Seeing double.
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Microsoft closes $69 billion Activision Blizzard deal after Britain's nod
By: Investing | October 13, 2023
LONDON (Reuters) -Xbox maker Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) closed its $69 billion deal for Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) on Friday, swelling its heft in the video-gaming market with best-selling titles including "Call of Duty" to better compete with industry leader Sony (NYSE:SONY).
Britain finally cleared Microsoft's acquisition of Activision earlier in the day after it forced the Xbox owner to sell the steaming rights to address its competition concerns.
The deal was blocked in April by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) which said it could give the U.S. computing giant a stranglehold over the nascent cloud gaming market.
But the regulator ripped up its play book by reopening the case after Microsoft agreed to sell the streaming rights to Activision's games to Ubisoft Entertainment, with remedies to ensure the terms were enforceable.
The deal was the biggest test of the CMA's global power to take on the tech giants since Britain left the European Union.
It said "sticking to its guns" in the face of criticism from the merging companies had delivered an outcome that was better for competition, consumers and economic growth.
The CMA said Microsoft's concession on streaming was a "gamechanger", adding that it was the only competition agency globally to have delivered this outcome.?
"The new deal will stop Microsoft from locking up competition in cloud gaming as this market takes off, preserving competitive prices and services for UK cloud gaming customers," it said in a statement.
Microsoft announced the deal in early 2022, aiming to boost its growth in console, mobile, PC, and cloud gaming to compete with the likes of Tencent as well as PlayStation-owner Sony.
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission opposed the deal but after failing to stop it, the CMA was left standing alone.
The FTC is fighting on, but Microsoft has said it will not stop it closing the deal.
The European Commision gave the green light in May when it accepted Microsoft's commitments to license Activision's games like "Overwatch" and "World of Warcraft" to other platforms.
'STUCK TO OUR GUNS'
The CMA's block in April drew fury from the merging parties, with Microsoft saying that Britain was closed for business.
The British government only offered limited support to the CMA, with the Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt saying that while he did not want to undermine its independence, regulators also needed to focus on encouraging investment.
CMA Chief Executive Sarah Cardell said the regulator had "delivered a clear message to Microsoft that the deal would be blocked unless they comprehensively addressed our concerns and we stuck to our guns on that."
She said the CMA took its decisions "free from political influence" and it would not be "swayed by corporate lobbying".
"Businesses and their advisers should be in no doubt that the tactics employed by Microsoft are no way to engage with the CMA," she said.?
"Microsoft had the chance to restructure during our initial investigation but instead continued to insist on a package of measures that we told them simply wouldn't work."
Quilter Cheviot equity analyst Ben Barringer said the CMA would see it as a victory, but it would need to be careful not to over-regulate the tech sector.
"There are fears the UK is a bad place to do business and the tech industry in particular will be watching its moves closely," he said.
Microsoft said it was "grateful for the CMA's thorough review and decision".
"We have now crossed the final regulatory hurdle to close this acquisition, which we believe will benefit players and the gaming industry worldwide," Vice Chair and President Brad Smith said.
Activision Blizzard said: "The CMA's official approval is great news for our future with Microsoft, and we look forward to becoming part of the Xbox Team."
The European Commission said the new commitments given by Microsoft to the CMA did not interfere with its EU commitments.
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$MSFT A Big Whale Just Added $5.3 Million of Calls • Strike: 325 • Expiration: 10/20/23
By: Cheddar Flow | October 12, 2023
• $MSFT A Big Whale Just Added $5.3M of Calls
Strike: 325
Expiration: 10/20/23
*Above the Ask*
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Microsoft $MSFT backed OpenAI is reportedly now generating revenue at a pace of $1.3 Billion a year up 30% from what was reported in late August - The Information
By: Evan | October 12, 2023
• Microsoft $MSFT backed OpenAI is reportedly now generating revenue at a pace of $1.3 Billion a year up 30% from what was reported in late August - The Information
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Analysts see little impact on finances as IRS says Microsoft owes $28.9B in back taxes
By: Investing | October 12, 2023
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has revealed in an 8-K filing that the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) has notified the company of a $28.9 billion back tax claim, along with penalties and interest, for the tax years 2004 to 2013.
This dispute revolves around how Microsoft allocated profits across various countries and jurisdictions during that period. Microsoft also notes that the proposed adjustments are taxes paid under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which could potentially reduce the final tax liability under the audit by up to $10B.
The company intends to appeal the IRS's claim, and the company does not anticipate any immediate changes in its tax liabilities, as the IRS Appeals process is expected to take several years to complete.
“Microsoft disagrees with these proposed adjustments and will pursue an appeal within the IRS, a process expected to take several years. We believe we have always followed the IRS’ rules and paid the taxes we owe in the U.S. and around the world,” the company said in an update.
“Microsoft historically has been one of the top U.S. corporate income taxpayers. Since 2004, we have paid over $67 billion in taxes to the U.S.”
MSFT shares fell 0.5% on the news.
Analysts at BofA don’t expect to see material impact on FY24/25 EPS or FCF.
“The $28.9 billion represents 111% of Microsoft’s deferred income tax liabilities and 45% of the company’s net cash balance… We do not expect a material impact to near FY24 or FY25 GAAP EPS or FCF,” the analysts wrote.
Analysts at KeyBanc added:
“In terms of financial impact to Microsoft assuming the IRS's stance is held up, timing of payment is uncertain along with the final calculated amount, but if we assume the full $28.9B tax payment is made in FY25, this would imply lost interest income of $800M-$1,200M (assuming a 3-4% interest rate) or 1% reduction in annual net income.”
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JUST IN: Microsoft $MSFT said the IRS wants them to pay $28.9 Billion plus additional fines and interest for the tax years 2004 to 2013
By: Evan | October 11, 2023
• JUST IN:
Microsoft $MSFT said the IRS wants them to pay $28.9 Billion plus additional fines and interest for the tax years 2004 to 2013
Microsoft said they disagree with the IRS' audit and will try to fight it and that the process will take several years to complete
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Microsoft $MSFT heading for the neckline?
By: TrendSpider | October 10, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft heading for the neckline?
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Microsoft $2.1 Million Call Seller--Sold to Open (Unusual)
By: Cheddar Flow | October 10, 2023
• $MSFT $2.1M Call Seller--Sold to Open (Unusual)
This whale is looking to collect the premium on these contracts
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Microsoft $MSFT - Probably made an intermediate term low 2 weeks ago when it bottomed at the lower BB...
By: CyclesFan | October 9, 2023
• $MSFT - Probably made an intermediate term low 2 weeks ago when it bottomed at the lower BB. In order to confirm the low it has to close the week above the 20 week MA(330.67). I expect it to get to at least the 1.62 extension of the 2022 bear market at 434 in 2024.
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Microsoft Massive double inside breakout gives Microsoft its best day since July! All-time high resistance is the spot to watch next week.
By: TrendSpider | October 7, 2023
• $MSFT Massive double inside breakout gives Microsoft its best day since July!
All-time high resistance is the spot to watch next week.
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Microsoft $MSFT next month reportedly plans to unveil its first chip designed for artificial intelligence at its annual developers’ conference
By: Evan | October 6, 2023
Microsoft $MSFT next month reportedly plans to unveil its first chip designed for artificial intelligence at its annual developers’ conference
— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) October 6, 2023
The move, a culmination of years of work, could help Microsoft lessen its reliance on Nvidia $NVDA designed AI chips - The Information pic.twitter.com/oSlPx02g1X
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Microsoft Stock: Don't Overlook This AI Pick Hiding in Plain Sight
By: Barchart | October 6, 2023
Shares of Microsoft (MSFT) have been strong this year - now up 33% year to date - thanks primarily to the artificial intelligence (AI) rush. What's more impressive than its stake in ChatGPT parent OpenAI is that the firm seems to have melded generative AI across its broader range of offerings, from its search engine Bing — which appears to be utilizing ChatGPT-4 as a weapon to be more competitive with Alphabet's (GOOG) Google Search — to its Office suite, its flagship Windows operating system, and even Azure.
Undoubtedly, there's a gigantic opportunity to monetize Microsoft's offerings further as generative AI looks poised to enhance productivity in the workplace. Even with the threat of antitrust, though, Microsoft doesn't want to hinder its pace as it preserves its first-mover advantage in the field of generative AI.
Microsoft Is The AI Play Of The Day - But Alphabet Wants The Title
Of course, Microsoft isn't the only company that's aggressively pulling the AI-evolution lever. Alphabet has been introducing new AI innovations rapidly, and is ready to implant them across its everyday productivity offerings, just like Microsoft.
Certainly, the second thing (after search) that likely comes to mind when you think of Google at this point is AI. And though allowing Microsoft to be a frontrunner in AI may have its fair share of downsides, it may also have some pluses.
In its current state, even the most powerful large language models (think ChatGPT-4 and the like) are way too confident in the responses they provide - including the embarrassingly erroneous ones. Indeed, adding sources to Bing AI seems shrewd. But it's not a surefire resolution to evade "hallucinations."
In any case, it's clear that Microsoft has its fair share of rivals who are more than willing to replicate its profoundly impressive AI rollout strategy as they seek to tackle problems as they arise. But that doesn't mean they'll have any success at topping Microsoft anytime soon.
As it stands, Microsoft stock remains the AI play of the day - at least in my books.
Microsoft's Nadella Goes To Washington
Recently, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella testified on search before the U.S. Department of Justice amid its antitrust case against Google. Though Bing has improved by leaps and bounds with the inclusion of its ChatGPT, Nadella noted that Microsoft's rival product is still having a tough time competing against Google Search.
There's no doubt that Google Search has a wide moat that may take more than just an intriguing LLM to penetrate. Further, Google has its own LLM that's every bit as capable. And that's not the only factor keeping users from "Binging" it instead of "Googling." As you may know, Google has quite an impressive ecosystem of productivity tools. Just how entrenched are its users?
Though the Google ecosystem may pale in comparison to Apple's (AAPL) walled garden, I still think it's all too easy to stick with Google Search if you're also a user of its productivity tools, like Gmail, Sheets, Docs, and more. And let's not forget the habit of taking to Google for prompts that have been built over the course of decades. Certainly, entering “google.com” on your web browser is pretty much muscle memory for many of us at this point!
Of course, LLM's propensity to “hallucinate” is another reason to take to Google for serious searches (based on real facts) over Bing, regardless of how much better it is with ChatGPT-4 enabled.
"You get up in the morning, you brush your teeth, and you search on Google," Nadella said in front of the Department of Justice. "With that level of habit forming, the only way to change is by changing defaults."
He's right. It takes more than just AI innovation to change consumer behavior. Apple may be the company that can bring forth the real sea change in the search space. Reportedly, Microsoft pitched Bing to Apple as a replacement for its default search option way back in 2020. Ultimately, Microsoft pointed the finger at Google for the deal's ultimate demise.
So far, Nadella is doing a great job of redirecting anti-trust scrutiny away from his firm and towards one of its biggest rivals - at least in the area of search. As it stands, Bing does not look like a Google-killer, even with the power of ChatGPT on its side. It's not even close.
The Bottom Line
Microsoft stock may be one of the more "obvious" AI picks right here. The same goes for Alphabet. That said, markets may still be underestimating the behemoth's potential, especially after the latest 12% pullback in MSFT.
www.barchart.com
Wells Fargo's Michael Turrin thinks Microsoft stock is worthy of his firm's Tactical Ideas List, thanks to its "favorable path" forward and further upside due to AI. Turrin has a $400 price target, suggesting the stock could make a more than 25% upward move from here.
Turrin could be right to pound the table on shares. Microsoft may be one of the most "obvious" AI plays right now. But that doesn't mean it's not an opportunity hiding in plain sight.
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