Market Sense and Sentiment (MKTSS)

[bbgold]

Looks Good, errands today
Will be on the road a lot but would be watching 1355 as rollover resistance.
Will have to see if this will be a gap down that gets bought or not?
Been a while since we have had a gap down day finish lod at eod?
Will be interesting how it plays out.
Safest to sell some of my SPXU position here.
Enjoy the Day!

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
Just posting my spx 30 min chart, it will remain live. It is telling the tale thus far.

[bbgold]

Hi Steve, doing Ok here
Just running a lot of errands for Tess.
Yes, tomorrow should be the tell.
So far the 2 day tests of support have been 3 downticks, each progressing lower, but a rally from the 3rd downtick.
This has been going on for quite a while now and I am stuck on 'when it Won't happen' and we get a confirmed rollover.
So up until 'now' it has been that 3rd downtick to cover short and look long again.
That 1364 break looks good but I think any retest 1360/1355 might get some buying support again, maybe.
The selloffs have been quick but all the tails showing recovery.
If those candle tails start filling the bottoms and leaving the tails on the top for some lower spike highs I think we could see the reversal I am looking for until Mid March.
Was looking at Bradley turns and now wondering if another bounce in need and then downside after OEX?
Either way I am still holding Bearish here, jmho
Hope all is well there also, Enjoy the Day!

[RCKS]

Hi Bob hope all is well.
Here is the 30 min chart spx with adjusted fork, today we have a lower low and lower high as seen on this chart. Does this mean a correction of more then a few hours is underway? Hard to say, tomoorrow will be telling hopefully as three charts should open in Daily Phase I's, the RUT, NYA and Dow all should.

[RCKS]

This is a Wave manual from Esignal that I am posting as a reference. I couldn't post the page directly for some reason.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72637172

[bbgold]

Caution for Repeating Patterns
I am still hesitant Long here and expect a selloff.
We have seen in the past Repeating Trading Patterns from DAX/FTSE that can be Mirrored by the INDU/SPX and today might still be an example of that, so use some Caution on Longs here.
I am not saying Sell the World yet but just make sure you are Safe with your Trades.

[bbgold]

Still holding over 1355 for now
The Econ news looks good this AM but it will be interesting to see if the 'Sell at 10:30' raises it's head again today, much as the DAX/FTSE sold off this morning, which would be yet another Bearish sign.
For now a decent test of support but will see how the reaction is to the resistance at 1357/1360.
Still Safest here to lock in profits/set stops on Longs as we both know the downside moves can be quick and sharp.
Good Trading!

[RCKS]

Well I was wrong, we didn't finish green....
Here is the live 60 min chart spx and there are little chinks in the Bullish armour, on this chart you can see we tried to return inside the fork but we failed. Now is this a small bearish signal yes it is but small is the correct description.

[RCKS]

Oh My G.. what is going on? There is red everywhere on my screen.... I don't believe it, I'm going to take a walk it will be green by the time I get back.....

[bbgold]

Market steps still in place, for now
Markets have been liking the stepped support/resistance levels with multiple tests 1337/1340 so any breakdown at 1357.5/1355 would be a sign of a possible rollover imo. Trendline there is definitely something to watch for any breakdown at 1357 changing to resistance. Much as the Indexpulse would watch for a breakdown of the 100SMA back to resistance I would watch your trendline for breakdown to resistance also. Whether the Markets have enough News left in them to stay up here is doubtful to me, jmho. I expected OEX to be down except the last 2 days rallied. I am still looking for a pullback to mid March, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Wednesday!

[RCKS]

Good morning Bob,
You could be right that we have put in the end of the wave out of the Dec Lows, others think so too but I want the forks on this 60 min SPX chart put to rest for good before I will be convinced. Price broke through the bottom tine once but recovered.

[bbgold]

Markets Topped, Good News Over
Would make sure and lock in any Long profits here, or at least set some stops, as all the News looks to be Over.
Lately the Markets have been News driven over the Euro crisis and today it looks as though the last of the Good News might be Done.
SPXU target was 10 for support and Markets at Major Resistance INDU 13000 and SP 1370 there is no better time for Profits to be taken.
Any selling and lack of News from here could see an extended pullback.
Just remember to be Safe with your Trades and have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

Morning Steve
Things have been busier this year with Tess.
I am now her 'certified' caregiver and it seems she is becoming more and more needy, so less time to watch the markets.
I see this AM another run of Econ data that 'looks' good but this time not much reaction from the Markets?
I think all the speculation that the numbers are being inflated/adjusted to help with the election might be starting to get some consideration from investors?
To me it seems more a matter of too far too fast and a good pullback to retest some support is needed.
Now once that support is tested it will be a matter of whether or not it will Hold, most likely at least a bounce, and then we see where the Market sentiment is at that time.
Once the buyers step back and take some profits I believe they might come to the realization of 'Why am I buying so High' and start to take even more money out of the Markets.
That could lead to a waterfall effect of selling short term that could eventually be extended much as the buying has been if the News begins to falter again.
1335/1320 would indeed be good targets to continue watching for support or breakdown.
The disconnect seems to be continuing with the Euro so not entirely sure what is keeping the Markets motivated here?
When I see a lot of questions about the Market action it always brings to mind 'when in doubt get out' and I think just the latest disconnects to Bonds and the Euro might have investors thinking the same thing?
Have a Wonderful Week!

[RCKS]

TVIX trade idea, posted by five on Foot's board.

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2012/02/allans-market-commentary.html

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
Hope everything is going alright for you.
Helium, I hear there is a shortage of it, can't be why we are rising?
Although the last few days has seen sideways.
I agree with you on Bearish view but we have to see prices below 1335 for me to believe it much.

[bbgold]

Markets on a Helium high
Morning Steve, it seems the Markets start to pullback and there is some fluff news to negate whatever prior negative news has come out. I am looking at the last overnight spike as another false Euro rally based on some hot air from China. We have seen in the past though that all the Markets need is some kind of ability to float over the negative news until something positive finally does come out. I am not sure how long this 'float' can last at these levels though. It is a bit like an old Twilight Zone episode, doom is predicted and just as soon as a little panic might be starting the 'News' says Nevermind it was a misquote 'All is Good' and everyone starts to party in the streets right before the supernova. My anticipation is a baby bear turn here and then a Grizzly after any relief rally. Now whether the baby bear has just been pat on the head and not let itself have much movement due to the 'news' might mean we all get a shock when the Grizzly comes through the door?
So I am holding Bearish here still as the Markets elevated at this level seems to be on nothing more than hot air, jmho.
Have a Wonderful Week!
Not much time to watch the Markets, Good Trading!

[RCKS]

Here is a rather Bullish perspective posted by JLS on Snoot's board.

http://www.traderplanet.com/newsletter_articles/view/6889/distribution:7

[RCKS]

Bob
The Leavitt Bros do a nice job on this video of laying out all the reasons we are likely close to a top of somekind.

http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?p=5342

[RCKS]

Good morning Bob
Its a little early in the day to make this call but its possible the market is putting in a lower high and then potentially this week make a lower low.
I thought I would illustrate how Bullish this run has been with this 60 min spy chart, the screen cast shows how this Fork is anchored going back to the 109.70 lows.
The full chart is a close up of current action.
http://screencast.com/t/KfB6OrinwK7

[bbgold]

Hi Steve
Yes, it will be interesting to see if the Market gets a pullback here rather than another rally day.
So far all the morning buy the dip 10:30 has been repeating.
It sure seems to be a good indicator for the trend holding up, for now anyway.
Not sure now when we get the sell at 10:30 coming back in?
Spike low progression has been 1280/1300 so 1320 would fit right in.
Have a Wonderful Week!

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
I posted a little bit yesterday. I am tempted to bet on Puts here. Yet this is one resilient market. Here is the spx 60 min with fork and the midtine has been recovered after the early sell off and again is supporting price. We are due for a 60 min phase I cycle, actually overdue is the word but that doesn't mean the Phase II has to end even tomorrow. We enter the Expiration window tomorrow, WWW is tomorrow and I have the sweet spot approx 1320 spx.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1340-1342-1335
A bit of a pullback as seen in the DAX/FTSE charts.
1330/1320 would be targeted support levels.
Use caution if holding Longs here, might want to set some stops if not already set yesterday.
Enjoy the Day!

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1320-1325-1335
Big spike on the Econ news this am.
Anticipation would be a retest of 1325 as support but might consolidate out as it is Friday.
Usually a scenario for a gap n crap but the news looks pretty good so most likely consolidation, we shall see.
Nothing wrong with taking any Long/Calls profits on the gap.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1325-1318-1322
Looking like some topping action but the consolidation could move higher. Econ news this am was positive so will have to see if the 'sell the news' is in effect today or not.
Getting a disconnect from the Euro/TNX so it looks as though the Market is propped up here, we shall see.

[bbgold]

Hi Steve
The candles still look topping to me like July/Nov/Dec. How the week finishes again might be key. 1300 will be the new pivot so as long as the Market can stay above it we could indeed get a retest of 1350. Failing to retest the last high might see some selling pressure come back in, we shall see.
Good Trading!

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
This market is acting like it wants to melt to the upside?
Very Bullish action if you ask me. The SPX Weekly chart is reflecting all this pretty well, the falling R-line is broken and back tested and the only thing missing is a higher high. If that doesn't come today, I believe it will tomorrow, a new high above 1333.47 that is. The target after that is 1347 high late July '11 and then the 1356 high early July '11.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1310-1320
Overnight ramp in the Euro/Futures has the SP back to testing resistance. Will see if another double top before 10:30 or not again. Remember the downtrend was 'sell at 10:30' where the uptrend was 'buy at 10:30'.
Happy Humpday!

[bbgold]

Yep, looks above
Time for another Bowtie to start?
Back above 1310 but with the Stoch still pointing down from a high and the DMI/ADX not getting a clear Low signal.
Tomorrow might be key if we close above or below that trendline as we could be starting a down channel from here if we stay below it.
Holding above I think we get another Bowtie and retest both top and bottom support levels again.
Feb could be 'welcome back whiplash' month?

[RCKS]

Bob
Here is an interesting take, look where we closed?

[bbgold]

Afternoon Steve, looks like Jan13
So far the same buy before 11am so that EOM plan you posted is ringing true so far. Closing above or below yesterday's low could be the key here? My anticipation was a rollover at 1310 that has extended so we Might be seeing recovered support at 1310. Still some time into the Close so it might depend on where the Markets are at 4pm and whether there will be anything promising or foreboding overnight. I have not looked at the calendar for tomorrow, now I see some light news but nothing major until Wed/Thurs. It is interesting to see the shifts between the 10:30 selloffs to the 10:30 buying here so still indicating uptrend. Any afternoon lower high here and a lower close could easily carry the week down though. 1300 could be Major if a rollover there carries into OEX.
So I am still looking at the short side with bounces from here, we shall see.

[RCKS]

Here is Henry's longer term count on a weekly chart showing wave 1 out of the 2009 lows and that we are currently, early in a wave 3 that began with the Oct low of 2011. This is posted for anyone looking for an alternative count to the current Bearish long term counts most E-Wavers have working.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27914148

[RCKS]

Here is a post from SI, Les H's thread. This in my opinion is a rather reasonable view of the market going forward from here.

http://www.futuresmag.com/News/2012/1/Pages/Technicals-offer-insight-into-strange-stock-market.aspx

[RCKS]

Good morning Bob
As I looked at the open today, ajtj99's EOM play came to mind. That is you buy the low by 11am the next to last day of the month and you sell on the last day of the month, tomorrow. Thus far the play is positive.
I may play the next leg down, I did not want to enter a short ahead of the EOM.
Looking at the 15 spx chart, the drop doesn't have much structure. If there is an impulse in the drop it is the open today and that would make this up corrective, which means the EOM play should not work this month. We'll see of course.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1310-1305-1302
Futures testing for support above 1300 for now.
Euro back to it's last tested support at 1.31.
Anticipation would be consolidation this area to test the support.
If 1300 breaksdown and rolls to resistance we could get another accelerated selloff, use Caution on Longs.
If 1300 holds support we could see another bounce to 1310 to test resistance again, but the anticipation is a drop into mid Feb.
Nothing wrong with locking in any Short/Puts gains short term though.
Have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

Hi Steve
I think 1280/1278 the pivot here now and could be retested.
As far as testing down to 1100 area by the end of the year that will have to be seen.
I think if we do retest 1280 area by mid Feb/Mar there could be another push towards 1350 by April 15th, maybe.
So we are due for another test of support, 1280 pivot 1240 megasupport, then bounce back to 1300/1330 resistance.
I am thinking in a short timeframe leaving mid Feb/Mar for another upside move.
In other words that chart will look much the same as it has the last 8 months, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Week!

[RCKS]

Hi Bob
Not a whole lot to say. Here is the SPX Weekly chart (Note:this is non log scale, because I put Forks on it usually) and look where price seems to be support???
Now we are due for a correction of somekind and many still believe we are putting in a serious TOP here, I am more in the camp that we can/could float much higher. We get End Of Month just ahead and though that is not a sure thing we do tend to go up more then we go down.
No bets either way at this point.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1310-1320-1310
Looking like some topping action in the Euro/DAX/FTSE.
It was interesting yesterday that the SP hit Tom DeMarks target of 1333 on the spike high.
The INDU is tested it's 100SMA yesterday also and the TNX had a rollover the prior day. Time to watch and see if the 100SMA will continue to hold support for the Markets or also rollover. So far every attempt at a breakdown has recovered. I always remember the saying 'Things keep happening the same way over and over until the day they Don't', so use some Caution on Longs here. Entering a Short/Puts position on the spike high the test of the 100SMA could have been an exit point. If the 100SMA rolls over as resistance then another Short/Puts position could be entered.
Good Trading and have a Wonderful Weekend Everyone!

[bbgold]

Evening Steve
Busy with school this week so not online during the day.
Yes, Markets still are trying to find some upside but it has been starting to stagnate a bit.
Did not have a chance to see the State of the Union yet but would not be surprised if some cheering carries over into the Markets tomorrow, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Week!

[RCKS]

Good morning Bob
What a resilient market we have.
Everyone is working hard at calling a top and it may have topped yesterday but I don't think so. I think we tag at least the 1350 level and I would not be surprised by a higher high then the May 2011 one of 1370.58 before we top on this run.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1310-1302-1305
Mostly consolidation in the Euro/Futures overnight but slightly down. Watch 1300 for support or breakdown, QQQ 59.50/59 for support.
QQQ has gone from typical .25 to .50 moves so could also be some increased volatility to the downside if it breaksdown.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1310-1305-1315
Looks like some topping action in the Euro/DAX/FTSE. The Euro at 1.30 was a prior breakdown point so will be interesting to see how it handles it. Listened to the latest Tom DeMark remarks on the Markets and it sounds as though he expects a top this week, as do I, we shall see. The scenario he mentioned was a gap up day followed by a gap down day. We have been seeing a few Island top type weeks that have been ignored to downside, just keep it in mind.
Have a Wonderful Week!

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1310-1305
A lot of testing in this range overnight.
Would keep a close eye on the Support at 1300 as for now the Resistance seems to be holding.
Have a Fantastic Friday and a Wonderful Weekend!

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1300-1308
Good Morning Steve! Yes, seems to be a bit of manipulation to the upside here. Overnight Futures a good test of Support at 1300 has the Markets back in Buy mode for now. That is a Great longer term chart showing how most of the 'corrections/moves' seem to come in 3/5/10 Week moves. I don't think we are in a Mid 2010 pattern but it is possible. My view would be more like Mid 2011 from here. As to whether this latest upside will last 3 5 or 10 weeks we will just have to see, but I am leaning more towards 5 weeks which could have it ending by OEX. If the weekly patterns repeat then it could be 3 5 or 10 weeks of downside, giving a bottom in Feb/Mar, we shall see.
Good Trading!

[RCKS]

Good morning Bob, maybe afternoon in the desert though.....
Haven't chimed in in awhile so here goes:
I adopted a new year resolution that I would make no short term trades the last week of expiration and by that I mean I want to avoid trading any shorter term market moves the week of expiration. I may take positions into the week of expiration put in place sometime ahead of these weeks but no new positions.
That said, this week is thus far playing out much as I thought it might, the devils (whoever they are) seem to manipulate the market in expiration week and this is turning out to be a good one. Max Pain was ignored last month to the downside, this month it is being ignored to the upside, a certain kind of balance there huh???
I have 1315-1318 as a target for this run and I base it on the falling R line on this weekly chart, we should get a pretty good correction once we roll over from there but its too early to put much stock in that yet.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1298-1288
A bit of a downtrend from the overnight high but could be looking for support again. Took an extended weekend so missed the spike yesterday. Much like Friday's gap down buying we saw some gap up selling. Not sure if the cycle will continue that way but it seems the bigger the gap the bigger the reversal. The small gaps can often lead to continuation. TNX is yet to participate in the upside but is also at a potential support but Below it's Major SMA. Today will be a test as to whether the Support will Hold or we again get a breakdown.
Enjoy the Day!

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1295-1288
For now looking like a trend down day.
SP 1290/1285, INDU 12450/12400 QQQ 58 Support levels to watch for breakdown and rollover to resistance would be signs of a potential reversal.
Enjoy the Day and have a Wonderful Weekend!

[bbgold]

Rinse down, Cycle up, Repeat
That has always been the Mantra for the Markets and I don't think it will change. I still anticipate it to continue. 1300 as resistance and 1260 as critical support. I believe the next lower spike high could send us back to retest 1260 again, jmho.

[RCKS]

I don't know if we have run out of buyers but sellers are just about nonexistant as well... LOL.
No big read for me but I am always reminded in markets like this of the line that says 'Becareful shorting quiet markets' or something to that effect.
Using northam's Phase I & II system, we are in Phase II's in everything from 60 min to Daily, Weekly and Monthly. The Monthly is just beginning a new Phase II and on avg they last over a year, although the last three have under preformed in length or time.
Here is the Monthly northam chart. He is looking for a confirmed new Bull with the ema 3 finishing the month above the 8ema, currently sits 11 points above.
All just food for thought.

[bbgold]

SP Futures 1285-1298-1290
Overnight rally looks to have double topped ahead of the US Econ news which was bearish and causing a pullback. Whether the pullback will again find support is the question here? TNX is only slightly higher but well below it's declining trendline. Time to see if TNX will have the leading pattern or if the 100SMAs of the Markets will continue to hold support.
My anticipation would be a selloff similar to Jan 6th, we shall see.
Enjoy the Day!

[RCKS]

I don't think the 10 yr will help equities much and it is probably why we haven't had big up days. We are the safe haven for now and the 10 yr reflects that, we have to get much further out in time and resolution of Euro concerns before that stops.
I think equities are being supported/bought here and I think we will get a thrust above 1300, maybe even tomorrow but I don't mean it as a prediction just a possible outcome....
Have a good evening Bob