Market summary
The markets once again showed very little weakness today. After the initial gap up the markets consolidated until the SMAs caught up and then trended just above the 50SMA the rest of the day. Part of today's move was the support shown yesterday in All of the Major Markets. The FTSI retested it's 160SMA, equal to the Dow 320SMA, and Held Support. Remember that the Plan would use a retest of the 320SMA that Holds Support as a Call trigger. The lesson from yesterday and today? Don't be Stubborn! If the markets are not showing any weakness then do not be stubborn and feel that they Will. You cannot Will the markets to do what you Want them to do and need to react to what they Are doing. What they were doing today is finding Support at the 20 and 50SMAs and moving Higher. There was no breakdown of Support and with the Support Winning the markets continued to push up to test resistance. With that said, "What about tomorrow?". The difference between yesterday and today and tomorrow looks to be exactly what we have been missing, Resistance. If you look at the 1 month, 2 month or 3 month chart on the website you can see that we are Finally at a Major resistance level. Today's HOD at EOD and at Resistance might be the difference between how tomorrow trades. Granted a lot of this could be hindsight since I already see that the Futures are down some from the Close with Intel missing it's estimates but it might be something to consider the Next time we get a move from a Low and are a Long way from Major Resistance, maybe. So what about tomorrow? I am sure that everyone holding Puts will be watching the 3AM Futures and whether they continue to sell down or hold support. The 5 day 50SMA has been the Key support level on the only real test of support at the SMAs we have seen. That would leave me Anticipating that we test 8050 tomorrow at the 5 day 50SMA. A bounce from there would be Anticipated. If that retest can give us the SMAs crossing Negative and the markets finding resistance Below them then a retest of the 320SMA would be next. Once again we will be watching to see if the Support or Resistance will Win. 7900 was Major resistance on this move Up so it is not really a surprise to see it as Major support now with the 320SMA. I think that the FTSI 160SMA is fairly close to the levels of the Dow's 5 day 50SMA so we Might be able to get an indication of how the Dow will react to the 50SMA from how the FTSI reacts to it's 160SMA, maybe. I would be a bit surprised to see us get a Major correction below the 320SMA in the next few days but it is Possible. Just remember to keep an eye on the SMAs and how the markets are reacting to them. Are they Support or Resistance? Also watch the market levels. Higher Lows and Higher Highs and we are Uptrending. Lower Lows and Lower Highs and we are Downtrending. It seems a bit Silly but that might help in determining which trade to look into. Bernard always used to say "Do not Short an Uptrend". That has certainly been the case for the Put holders this last week. Remember that the Plan would be playing the Put purchases to the retests of Support. If that Support Holds then the Puts should be Sold. If the markets continue to Lose Support then the Puts would be Held. So far every test of Support has Held Support. We will have to see if that is still the case tomorrow. Our Short signal will be if the 5 day 20 and 50SMAs cross Negative and the markets are finding them as Resistance. Our Bearish signal will be when the market Fails to Hold Support above the 320SMA and it becomes Resistance. Even easier might be Trading Above the SMAs is Long, Trading Below the SMAs is Short. The Plan had it's Bullish Long signal last Thursday when the Dow Held Support Above it's 320SMA and the SMAs were crossing Positive. By constantly looking at the Puts we have actually been Missing the Power of the Plan. If the market starts trading Below the SMAs tomorrow then perhaps we will see the Plan show it's Power to the Downside, maybe. Following the Plan, and not second guessing it, should continue to make for the Best trades. I hope that this helps :^)
Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!
Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!
AI
