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Weird Wolly Wed., the Wed the week preceding the week of expiration. Its Don Wolanchucks invention and it marks IMO the beginning of Max-Pain window, where if markets are way out of line on expiration, you see adjustments in price to meet Max-pain.
The exception being in strong trending markets, the trend direction will get a stronger move, IMO due to Delta Hedging in the direction of the Trend.
You got me on WWW?
I am not up on the news as much as I should be.
Yes, have been hearing news of possible breakdown of the Euro zone.
I am wondering if trading programs are trying to get things back in sync with the USD$ much as they used to be? Have been hearing a lot of news about Automated programs doing over 50% of the trades. I think it was early 2003 when NASD had a huge A/H selloff that was explained as 'a new trading system being accidentally put online'. It was soon after that the Markets had a big rally. Now with the Auto programs controlling a lot of the trading here, much as 1987, I am wondering if all the huge buying will soon trigger to a Market decline once there is a loss of motivation from the Euro and Programmed trades? I would think with the 9th being a critical date that there would be more selling ahead of it rather than a rally attempt, but that is just my speculation. I have been talking about Markets trading similar to 2002 here and if I remember correctly it was the second week of Dec that saw a big decline?
So what do you see as WWW for a motivating factor here?
From a stat point of view, the last six Payroll Fridays have closed in the red, we are due for one to close in the green.
Bob I'm on a different page in terms of the markets, I think we continue higher into Wed., WWW is next Wed and sits 2 days in front of this Euro Summitt to create a more unified Europe politically. The 9th is the date to move forward on this, it is the only answer if Euro Zone is to stay together as we know it.
WWW should be the start of the correction and it should stay above the 1235 level if are to remain on this bullish track.
Morning Steve, Euro GapnCrap?
I see the spike high in the Euro this am and am wondering if the Markets are going to get a similar spike high here?
I am leaning towards a small pullback but anticipate we close above 1250 for now. As to whether any pullback gets carried over into more selling next week will be the big question. I think we are near a spike high for at least a 2 day pullback, but just my speculation. Definitely could have used waiting another day on SPXU with the Jobs report coming out. Yes, most of the morning upside was due to the Euro News once again. I am just not sure how long the Euro can continue to motivate the Markets here? I put the TNX chart in the Ibox to see if it will see a breakdown/crossover ahead of the Markets move, much like it did last Friday.
For now the MKTSS Plan would be Bullish with 100sma support at 1240. I think we are looking at a possible higher trading range as long as 1240/1250 can hold support, but could see a quick drop if it fails.
So pretty much we are back to those 2 levels as pivots, but this time potential Support where prior was potential Resistance, so still uptrending for now.
Hi Bob
You are up early.
Pretty clear that the markets focus is on Europe, we have a GREAT Job Report (GREAT in a relative sense) and the futures declined because doubt is cast on the News that had sent Futures higher overnight, that the ECB would lend to the IMF.
SP Futures 1245-1250-1260
Big jump just ahead of the FTSE open, not sure of any News there.
Jobs report comes out in an hour, 8:30, just ahead of the Market open. Looks as though the LOD at EOD and Support continued to be a Buy signal for the Plan. I saw it and ignored it with the SPXU trade, Ugh. SPXU premarket low 13.30, 52w low 13.10. Definitely would have been Safest to exit SPXU in A/H with the Support holding at the 100sma. This am looking like we might get a spike high double top on the FTSE with the EURO back at it's resistance 135. You can see in the EURO/SPY post the typical Sell at Resistance, but only if it Holds Resistance.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68819025
Will be watching for a morning double top again and possible sell back to support.
Trend1 if I'm on track with the Bullish view, we will climb at least through Tues. Intra-day may move negative but we should have bullish candle sticks at the end of each day. We would close above 1277 but may not take out 1292 by Tues.
Just one view of course.
Snoot is looking for 1370 but I think he has us going to 1200 first.
T1 this is a close up of my 60 min SPY Bullish Fork, it is anchored in early Aug. 109.70 and top by 9/16 high and the low tine by the Oct low. There is a lot of room to move up and ideally the midtine would contain any corrections going forward.
Did'nt get breakdown 12000 SP 1240
Was really looking for that to breakdown at eod but so far the Support held up. Will see how A/H goes and might close the trade out in A/H if I don't see a move below SPX 1240. SPY close below 125 might be helpful though. This one will be tough to hold overnight.
Enjoy the Evening Everyone!
Long SPXU 13.84
Anticipation is a Sell the News on the Auto numbers, also declining highs today much like last waterfall setup.
Might still get a spike high here but anticipation is 2 days of selloff, we shall see.
SP Futures 1250-1240-1245 premarket
So far from the FTSE it looks like a consolidation day again.
Some poor employment news just out might put a bit of a damper on things, maybe. QQQ premarket resistance was 56.59 so might watch to see if a double top during the day, 56.50 would be targeted resistance. It is interesting to see the morning double bottom in the FTSE though, so perhaps any pullback will be bought?
MKTSS Plan would be bullish as long as above SP 1220, any short side trades would just be 1-2 days watching for support at the Inclining 100sma.
SP Futures 1190-1200-1225
Huge spike in the Futures on the ADP employment numbers.
Now a bit concerned we might get a repeat of the spike in the Euro we have seen in the past where it sells right back down. MKTSS had gone back into Bullish mode above it's 100SMA and it looks as though it was indeed Correct. Lately the big gaps have been reversal days so will be watching to see if this gap up day gets sold back to support at 1200.
Enjoy the Day!
Here is Euro/SPY post
You can see in the prior post the EURO is near it's prior bottom.
SPY at 115 has potential to be a pivot point if the EURO can find some support here, otherwise we trip to 115-110 trading range.
SP Premarket 1160-1150
The prior breakdown at 1200 had us anticipating the trading range moving to 120-115 so now we are already at that test of support at 115. You can see the FTSE making some bounce attempts this am, much like prior days, so now we will have to see if the support will finally hold or lead to another breakdown. Still no crossing of the 100SMA back to positive but will be watching SP 115 for support today.
Hope that Everyone had a Terrific Thanksgiving!
Let's hope that Black Friday stays just a Shopping day for the Markets also.
Very low volume until eod chop
Seemed it was more just an absence of buyers and the market makers took advantage of it. The Euro step down continued and I think that contributed, but suddenly after market closed it started recovering.
Yes, I think Friday will be a positive day, just not sure if a reversal until Dec 1st, but could get some EOM window dressing.
I am back to cash and just waiting to see what happens next. So far no attempt at crossing back above the 100SMA on the MKTSS charts.
Guess we will just have to be patient if wanting to see some upside?
Have a Terrific Thanksgiving!
I had too mucgh to do today to follow the market but isn't it amazing how orchestrated this selling was today. I don't buy it, I mean something is up, there was no panic at all. VIX didn't really move. Watch us bounce up big soon. JMHO.
Errands today, QQQ 53.50 support
Would watch for bounces from support but resistance at 53.75, SP resistance 1180. Anticipation is mirror the FTSE pattern now with only bounces but holding support at the lows.
Have a Terrific Thanksgiving Everyone!
SP Futures 1180-1170
Bouncing to test resistance at 1180 that you can see in the FTSE chart, but so far holding support at 1170. To me it looks as though this gap down will be bought, but back to a consolidation day. You can see in the Euro chart the same prior pattern of breakdown and consolidation followed by breakdown we first saw in the FTSE pattern days ago. Watch the Euro for a recovery above 1.34 to test 1.345/1.35. SP will need a recovery above 1180 to test 1190. SP over 1190 could offer some relief rally but so far it doesn't look to happen today.
SPY low 117.3, testing 1180 now, QQQ low 53.92 testing 54.10 now, so the QQQ is back to testing 54 as support where the SPY had a possible spike low. Watch QQQ for recovered support at 54, SPY at 1180.
Hi Steve, I agree
Just thinking we get a bump up like around Oct 10 first, or Nov 7-14. Not sure if we get a full bump like around Sept 26th?
Anticipation is a gap up day that fills the gap down and sells again. Notice how most of the big gaps like to have a mirror?. So Market could move to 121/122 before South. Then I think it will be a quick selloff to test 116/115 area, possibly by Dec 2nd.
Santa Rally could start 2nd week of Dec but my feeling is that we get the Oct whiplash with 1-2 week up and down, we shall see.
Enjoy the Evening!
SPY lod 118.52 QQQ 53.87
So far any Longs with stops set at 118.5 and 53.75 would still be Good. Noticed the Dec SPY 125 down around $1, where yesterday it was 126 Calls around $1. Will be interesting to see if just another bounce back to resistance here or can build from it.
SP over 1200 QQQ 54.50 will be the bigger test, we shall see.
SP Futures 1190-1200-1187
FTSE/EURO were up slightly but the GDP numbers have them dropping back to test support. Premarket SPY low 119 high 120.5 QQQ low 54 high 54.50 so would look for some consolidation at the lows for support, possible bounces. I would use the premarket highs for potential breakout watching the Euro for some lead. A Long entry could be tested here using a Stop at 118.5 QQQ 53.75 as it looks as though the 119 and 54 are holding for now. Markets wanted some upside but the GDP numbers negated that. I think another upside test will happen as long as the Support holds.
Super Committee effect today and Friday
I think they have until Wed close to make a decision and Monday to finalize it? I would think there would be selling today as it Looks like Wed there will be nothing done, but I expect by Wed they toot some horn of optimism that by Monday there will be some effort made to spark a Friday surge that will be shot down again Monday when the Real situation is exposed, much like the fake Euro rally end of August on News. For now I still anticipate the bounce as it is a historical happening that defies logic most every year.
We shall see
From a news standpoint, we have the Super Committee lack of solution hanging over the markets and I think that will put a damper on any rallies this week. Unless of course they find last second agreement but I doubt that very much.
I like that Fork
I also like the black midline around Oct 17th where the Markets did some backtesting. My anticipation is some backtesting similar to that this week around 1210, followed by the reversal pattern back to the lows near 1160/1140. One thing I noticed on SPXU is that today's price at 1190 was around 16.40, where prior 1190 the pricing was at 17. I remember that as it was just before I went on vacation to CO and we had the double bottom morning right at 1190 and SPXU was trading at 17. To me that might mean Less of a Bearish bias as compared to October. So we might not get quite as low as October before the next Monthly bounce. December might trade much as Sept/Aug did with a lot of whiplash, we shall see.
Hey I recognize that chart. In the bigger picture I think the market is in search of a lower boundry. I am very short term bearish but ahead of EOM I bet we have a new tradable bottom and my guess its in the range of 1120-1140. We'll see of course.
A nice target would be the midtine of this red fork on the spx daily chart. This chart should remain alive for you
Back to lower trading range?
Remember the change mid Oct to the higher trading range?
Looks as though we might be moving into the lower trading range again with 1210/1220 as resistance.
Would anticipate the middle trendline to be tested, getting some gap fill, and then move towards the lower trendline off the scale, much as mid Oct traded.
So far no double bottom bounce
Notice in the Euro chart a bit of a double bottom bounce?
Now I am wondering if the Markets see the same thing here?
Not sure how significant 1184 is here for the Markets?
QQQ 53.75 would be the .25 extension for a bounce back to 54 again.
I probably need more patience to wait for a LOD at EOD and Support eh?
This was one thing I was considering all of last week with the MKTSS Plan and how I had failed to utilize it in the past, taking advantage of the Gaps and the first hour or two of volatility.
Will have to see if today is another example of that or we do get the LOD at EOD.
Yes, was thinking that also
From the FTSE/Futures consolidation and selling it looks like the pattern could repeat into the eod. My primary concern is SPY/QQQ being at good support levels and that most every significant gap down/up day has become a short term reversal day.
Whether that becomes the case today we will just have to see.
Still targeting the EOM as the Market low, much as Oct ended the Market high, but Tday week might offer some relief rally.
I had SPXU targeted at 16.25 for resistance, now some consolidation back to 15.50 for an EOM move to 18. Markets have certainly lost most of their Motivation but a bounce from support is potential here, QQQ at 54, we shall see.
Today should be a close on the lows day, too early to make the call but its risk off for this week probably.
INDU 11600 failure, Stop out Longs
SP 1195 as resistance, 1190 bounce potential. If 11600 1195 are recovered as Support then another Long entry could be triggered with a Stop at the LOD.
For now the Trend still looks Down but a Consolidation could break either direction if Support is recovered at 11600, we shall see.
Thanks Steve, SP 1210-1195 premarket
Looks like the Market consolidation is continuing the trend down for now. Premarket was pretty flat ahead of the FTSE open then broke down to another consolidation at 5250, around SP 1195, INDU 11600. QQQ premarket low was 54.50. Looking at some of the prior chart patterns it appears that the big gap down days are potential reversal days. So far I don't see much in the Futures to suggest that unless we get a morning double bottom at QQQ 54.50 that causes a double bottom bounce. Historically the day after Thanksgiving is a rally day, so not sure if we sell into Wednesday or start some recovery today?
Hi Bob
This an article from Art Hupich and it is a very good Technical read on the markets, with emphasis on the Euro markets (DAX & FTSE especially). The DAX and FTSE look very much like the SPX at the moment and this article does a great job listing the critical support levels.
http://raymondjames.com/technical_commentary.asp
Hi Trend
Unusual for a selloff on a Thurs of Expiration week, that moved a lot of Out of The Money Puts into the money. That move has me in your camp now as well. I saw you were using RSI 14 with a target of 40 to sell your TZA, is that correct?
Good luck with your trade of TZA
SP Futures 1240-1220-1235
Yes, the cliff edge is Potential
That is If the chart pattern repeats on the Monthly same as the Intraday. Futures still look like downtrending range. I mentioned before we probably trade inverse to the Oct climb and so far we are getting the reverse of the whiplash climb we have seen coming into Nov. Now whether it will be a complete reversal we will have to watch and see.
Euro vs USD$
Are you implying we will fall off the cliff ledge?
Maybe but I will be shocked if its this week, 125 SPY is a magnet through Friday.
A few folks are commenting on the Call/Put ratio for Options traded today of over 2, implying heavy Put buying but I believe during expiration week it expresses Puts exiting their positions while they still have value or rolling over into further out positions in time.
Good Morning Steve, I agree
For now I think we are in line with the 2002/2003 end of year trading and Feb/Mar 2012 will be the low. Looking at the longer term charts they posted it would be interesting to see a further decline to 700, but doubt it happens. I am wondering if the 1292.66 last top might have been the 1300 test? I remember Northam first posted it was a Close above the Monthly UTL but then later stated it missed by 3 points. Bagman Charts has an interesting indicator to watch with the PPO touching a flatlining Full Stochastic as a potential Top/Bottom signal. You can see it here in this TZA chart the PPO/Full Stoch taps Aug 8th and Oct 31. I have never followed those indicators before but it certainly does look like Potential Top/Bottom signals. Of course there was a Lot of Whiplash between Aug 8th and Oct 31st so I would anticipate that to continue. Not sure how the 4 Month cycle would fit with Northam's Cycle system?
If we are still in a Bear Market then I would anticipate it to be a shortened cycle. For now I think we still get a lot of testing and whiplash until there is a defined break in either direction, so still consolidation ahead, we shall see.
Enjoy the Day!
Good morning Bob
Here is a post stolen from the Lotto Project Boys... I am more in this camp all the time but I do not rule out a run to above 1300 first before we see some serious selling.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov11/assume-crash-positions11-11.html
Futures premarket 1240-1260-1240-1250-1245
Wild overnight swings in the SP Futures you can see in the Euro chart. Looks like back to testing the same trading channel 1240-1250 but the overnight breakdown of the Euro below 1.35 to test 1.345 looks Bearish to me. Last the Euro was at these levels the SP was around 1200, thinking the economic news is keeping the SP motivated.
The thing that surprises me is that with all the good economic news the USD$ should be showing more strength, which could equate to lower Metals/Market prices, we shall see.
Euro vs USD$
Futures premarket 1255-1235-1245
Resistance overnight at the 100sma, support slightly higher than last week at 1235 FTSE 5440, bouncing on the Retail Sales/PPI numbers to test resistance 1245 and FTSE 5500. Looking like Downtrend to me with the resistance at 1255 and 1245. Most likely the Markets mirror the FTSE again with a midday dip and bounce from support. Once the FTSE closes it will be up to the US Markets to continue the trend. Whether the premarket trend will continue we will have to watch and see. For now the anticipation is a dip until midday and watch for support to hold or breakdown. Most of the dips below the 100sma have seen some recovery from support. Last week we saw how the Tuesday bounce sold again into Wednesday. I would think this week most likely the same.
SPY premarket high 125.48 resistance, low 123.97 support, testing 125 at this time
Enjoy the Day!
Euro vs USD$
If the Shoe fits
That is if the Shoe fits the FTSE?
Days like these can be darn right scary when the patterns repeat eh?
Remember that the FTSE was trading and closing Hours before the US Markets.
You can check it against any of the Indices also.
Hope you all get to see this before the morning resets things
Futures premarket 1270-1255-1260
Overnight high saw some selling to 1255 as support but bounce back to 1260 as resistance. 1250/1240 is our breakdown watch so a bit of higher support for now. Once again the weakness in the Euro is tripping the Markets up. Anticipation is consolidation this week, possibly downside, limited upside, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Week!
Euro vs USD$
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This thread is used to give intraday trading signals on the following markets:
1. Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)
2. NASDAQ Non-Financial 100 (NDX)
3. S&P 500 (SPX)
We will try to find the medium term direction (1 - 5 days) of each index by locating the important support and resistance, then match them with the chart patterns to find the potential trading range. By merging the behaviour of the corresponding index options and the intraday index trading signals, we hope to find some safe trading opportunities with huge reward in the shortest time frame.
Indexpulse 5 day chart for Short Term trades INDU
http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=indu&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=20%2C40%2C60&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=1024&lf3=32&type=4&size=3&state=15&sid=1643&style=330&time=3&freq=7&comp=NO_SYMBOL_CHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=8541&mocktick=1
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Indexpulse 5 day chart for Short Term trades SPX
Usual Trading Signals (with INDU as the reference index)
1. DMI+ cross under ADX = potential HOD, DMI- cross under ADX = potential LOD. The confirmation comes from the gap between DMI+ and DMI- (at least 20), the further apart, the better. This signal is not valid when INDU has about 200 points movement or when you get it before 10:00am. This method works best on the 5 min chart.
Buying Calls at LOD and Support and Puts at HOD and Resistance will likely give us a profit. Remember to use any volatility the first hour of trading to capture good entries and exits.
2. Indices like to Close at or near the High of Day (HOD) or Low of Day (LOD)
3. INDU hits the 320SMA on the 5 min chart.
4. INDU hits the 100SMA on the 15 min chart.
5. INDU hits the Medium Term support and resistance from a longer time frame chart, for instance, the 5 days 15 min chart or 10 days 60 min chart.
6. 15 min MACD signal: fast line cross over or cross under the slow line
7. Maximum-Pain Theory Options Analysis, http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl ,works well the week before options expiry.
8. When there is a directional divergence between TRAN and INDU, follow TRAN #msg-1008063
9. Trading Above the SMAs with the SMAs as Support is when you want to be Long or holding Calls. Trading Below the SMAs with the SMAs as Resistance is when you want to be Short or holding Puts. Exit the Calls at HOD and Resistance signals. Exit the Puts at LOD and Support signals. It is not necessary to immediately flip into the opposite trade but Safer to wait until a Market reversal is confirmed.
10.The 5 day 20 and 50SMAs crossing Positive and the markets trading Above them is a Bullish sign, the 5 day 20 and 50SMAs crossing Negative and Below them is a Bearish sign.
11. A Long Calls signal is when the 100/320SMA changes from Resistance to Support and the market is trading Above the SMA and Holding Support. A Short Puts signal is when the 100/320SMA changes from Support to Resistance and the market is trading Below the SMA and Holding Resistance.
12. and many more signals that we discuss on the thread daily.
Trading Tips and Tools:
SPX Current Trading Channels-tks RCKS!
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QQQ Current Trading Channels -tks RCKS!
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=qqq&p=d&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p37652474569&a=234033326
TZA Short reference chart
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69054749
TNX Bond Yield chart-Inverse to Bonds but in line with Markets
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Forex Economic Calendar
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Bull Market Cycle/ Fib Fan chart
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Read the 24hr Futures Quotes here and Plan your Trade wisely
CME 10-minute GLOBEX Flash Quotes (HTML)
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Quote.com Futures list - Click on Indices link
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VIX chart
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$vix&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p22493041215&a=247969044
TREND1 RUT Chart-very useful
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DAX Chart with trading channels-tks RCKS!
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FTSE Chart with channels - tks RCKS!
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SPX Swing trade chart MACD/RSI -tks Footquarters!
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Larry Williams website - I Really Trade LW University
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Commitment of Traders Charts
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Useful Futures Link
Options site for OEX, SPX, DIA, DJX, NDX
http://www.cboe.com
Seasonality Charts
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/
Seasonality Switching Rules #msg-1381329
Plan Philosophy #msg-471956 #msg-539934
Trade Strategies #msg-538376
Consolidation #msg-544157
Diary of a Loss #msg-545791
Need a Break? #board-30 #board-959
Meanwhile, please feel free to post what you think can be played with these intraday trading signals. This is vital to this thread, please contribute your thoughts. We are all here to learn. I use this thread to document my own observations, and try to draw conclusions from them. You can do the same thing too!
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