MARKETS & TRADING

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

M2 Soars to record levels

reports Tony Crescenzi today on RealMoney.

Good article with some stats of unprecendented increases.

Yesterday's release by the Fed: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Stocks to watch today...

TRA, AKAM, STP, TSL, NYX, SWIR, PCU, FCX,

VDSI & CELG are down - have to look closer to see where/if any real problems - could be good buy ops coming up.

After the close today: MSFT, SNCR, VSEA, etc.

Good Luck.

Others resting right at/below key buy points - ones like ICE, etc. And the Goog, VMWare, etc. keep going and going.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

This is shaping up to possibly...

be the market follow-through day.

The new market leaders continue to act well early this morning:

BIDU, BCSI, SPWR, ICE, RVBD, SIGM, along with the bigger names like AAPL, GOOG, GRMN, etc. as well as the leading oils - RIG etc.

Let's see how we finish out the day.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Some continued massive selling...

in RIG. If you took some or most profits off the table when the merger was announced you are happy now!

If you have any remaining, you should follow O'Neil's advice to never let a profit totally evaporate and even worse turn into a loss.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Powerful close today...

on this down day showing what this market is made of. Expiry week, so a day like today is given. Bull market, so a close like today is expected (almost a given in such a market). IBM good AH.

Some plays and other setups today:
ULTI - high short ratio is going to help fuel this higher
CMG - picked up some as it touched the 50 to replace what was sold off
REDF - picked up some for a trade, may hold it awhile depending on buyout rumors
ALY nice pull back, second chance to get in so got in
and others like these.

Liked that Cramer finally touched on SPR yesterday, and SI today.

Tomorrow afternoon is going to set tone for market going into next week. GOOG, SPWR, SNDK, and other NAS names reporting. I know what I'm expecting. Still not expecting much from BRCM, but, that should turn around by the end of this year - 2008-9 should be their turn again. INTC is just being held to the strike - nice report.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

CSCO started yesterday...

also JNPR, NTGR, RVBD, FFIV, AKAM, CIEN, and the rest of the group all acting well.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

VSCN halted...

buyout news coming.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Powerful move, powerful day...

SNP just cleared after the Dow this am, and the NAS a couple of minutes ago.

It's a bull market.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

When I asked rhetorically...

if T can handle it. It's a yes, but, it will be challenging. This thing is going to be more popular than most expect. The extra staff they have will be strained, but, it will carry them through the weekend. And then, things should only get better from there.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

I think T was and is...

a gift from last Friday's related rebalance trading. The question is, do you think it will be worth more next Monday morning?

I do. I think this coming weekend we will all be bombarded with incredible news regarding the new phone. Can T handle it? Yes.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Rebalancing today ...

so watch the close and watch the market today. But, GOOG and SPWR and some others moving this am.

Curiously watching the BX open.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Good article regarding this...

play of behind the scenes work going esp related to video traffic on the internet. See IBD's Thursday edition, page A-1, top headline story.

See if this link works - http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=5&issue=20070620

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

The New Nasdaq Horsemen...

I've been mentioning the term for awhile here, and Cramer outlined and went over them on his show on June 6th.

A couple of things...

Yes, in the 90's it was 4, now it could be more (later this year). However, if you stay with 4, the first to get knocked off Cramer's list will be Amazon. Just anecdotally - all of my major purchases are done online, however, no purchases (not even books) are from Amazon. The sites I go to first - Buy.com, Onecall.com, B&H, Barnes & Noble, etc. These are just a few I use and love and that offer great customer service, and often free shipping.

On the replacement horseman name for Amazon... Apple is changing personal computing this June 29. It will be huge. N in Canslim is New. This is new and will be changing our world. Word is their goal is 3M units sold at launch. I've heard through the grapevine that it's ridiculous how much fun it is just to scroll through your address book on the thing; that's it's stupid how amazing and easy and fun it is to use. Go figure your own revised yearly numbers based on that launch number. And then also think about the networks and other infrastructure and what goes into that need to support this coming change from Apple as well as the increase sales from competitors. That is where your other horsemen will be found, the up and coming ones.

They have been sleeping for now, but, not too much longer. One (and maybe more) of these background support related issues will replace Amazon, or if you prefer to follow and have more than 4 horsemen in this current historic stock market, then these will be in addition to Amazon. Remember, most people never heard of CSCO as it started it's run just after the first Iraq war and then continued it for years.

Keep your eye out and watch the market's leaders and volumes and market caps and you will get these other names soon enough.

GL & GT.

Right now today, we will see what this market is made of after this pull back.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

What a Market...

Look at what the Nasdaq has done the last three days. Watch it today! As it breaks up. Look at the Dow and other indices too.

What a Market!!!

This is why you MUST stay in the game! For times like this!

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

This Nvidia looks like it...

is getting ready to charge 40 and then keep going.

Watching it close, and will consider getting out of my NYX position into something moving here, anything. Watching some other Nasdaq names close.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Lots of buying...

yesterday and today.

Some names I like and am watching:
CIEN @ 35.33 on volume
SMDI @ 11.37
FFIV @ 82.75 (I liked that fund manager interview on Bloomberg TV yesterday too)
ZOLT @ 39.60
GLW @ 26.34
FMCN @ 46.10
ATHR - loaded up yesterday

and this darn Apple.

Don't forget the more defensive names you should have too for the summer - the Boeings, T's, Cats, etc.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Into the limelight...

not. But, that starting today as well as the AKAM upgrade (which I like here) should help generate some interest around that FFIV and some others as well.

The Nasdaq - with the semi's getting some interest today - well, let's see what it's made of here. But, caution, cash, and some other defensive plays are not a bad thing here; i.e. rolling s-l-o-w-l-y into T for example is one.

For the summer, I'll write some more early next week. But, the bond market and Bill Gross's comments yesterday should be studied, not ignored. Let's see what the FED comes out and says next. More later.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

I also like that...

RIMM move this morning, had to get some.

Look at this ZOLT - I guess I should see what Jefferson Krull is doing with ZOLT before I buy some!

Man, some others moving too, my list is too long. ICE 12 pts straight after expiration.

People might be trying to lighten going into the holiday, but, the buyers, even if they are light, are still buying.

The trend is your friend as they say.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

I like what I hear...

from Bernanke this morning from Chicago. I like Big Ben better than Greenspan, he's a better communicator.

Watch this housing market close for clues to the Fed's next move.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

That's the most volume...

on GOOG since that earnings release almost 4 weeks ago.

I like it. Let's see if things can stay heated up for more than a day and if some other Nas names start to get some interest! BRCD moved today too. Probably not a bad place to start on some LVLT again. I'm going to watch this ADBE here too - may be a little early, but, when she starts as well, I'm getting into some tech. Not a lot, but, I will buy some.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Time to buy some...

NDAQ too, to add to the other exchange plays.

There may be some other good dip buy opportunities next week too, hopefully.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Rally Mode!!

Only down note today is that all of my DXPE I offered out at some high prices got taken.

Good luck all. Don't forget to order some chips with whatever else you're having.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Man, well...

this SPR looks ready to go, following BA this am. It's trading right at the B.P. Picked up some shares and will have to see whether to hold em or not. Watch the volume today and in the market.

Some others getting ready to go too.

Tricky day.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

What a resilient market...

It is not staying down today.

OK. I'm a little wary of jumping back in right here, after trimming some positions the last two days, but, have to keep an eye on things.

Some stocks I've been waiting on are creeping up here this am. It would have been preferable to have them come in a little more, faltering slightly on vanishing volume, and then take off within the next couple of weeks or so.

But, there are bids underneath, and the selling never really took this morning, so, have to be prepared to go with the flow, cautiously however. And watching this SOX and INTC (and cohorts) to see where it's leading to.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Rally Mode...

Rally Mode, Rally Mode.

The Fortune 500 list is out - as well as data like record profits of $785 Billion. A 29% increase from a year ago. I like this headline "A Profit Gusher of Epic Proportions".

***
A profit gusher of epic proportions
America's largest corporations generated record earnings in 2006, thanks to a happy confluence of circumstances. How much longer can the outpouring last?
By Shawn Tully, Fortune editor-at-large
April 15 2007: 10:00 PM EDT


(Fortune Magazine) -- The notion of the little guy striking it rich - finding gold at Sutter's Mill, discovering oil at Spindletop, or cashing in on a dot-com IPO in Silicon Valley - runs deep in American lore. But something even more historic transpired in 2006: A massive swath of the established economy - also known as the Fortune 500 - collectively generated unprecedented earnings.

***
Read all about it, and then determine if you should be in this market. I know I am.

GL & GT.

Disclosure: I'll be selling a little bit of my full truck of some of my favorites today and tomorrow into this strength, but, will reload soon on some dips.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Market looks OK here...

SPWR moved this am, did my first pyramid buy.

CROX, PRFT and others I've been watching are also moving.

I like this FFIV weekly and monthly chart setups - will watch this one closely too.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Into the 2nd quarter...

and some of my favs are acting well today, i.e. NYX.

SMSI is going higher, and ICE caught some people off-guard as it started a while ago this am.

Under $10, which I normally don't do, but bought some STEC last week, and watching this BRCD. I sold my LVLT awhile ago and will be adding to that again, just not now.

Want some diversification - look at this CELG start.

Restaurants - CMG is still for me and I'm still holding.

Chips - watch the latest leaders - waiting to buy back SIMO, etc.

GPS - I still like the favorite plays.

And solar - SPWR as it breaks out above $48. Don't forget WFR.

Still waiting on this SPR and others.

Lots more, before the summer slowdown season.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Jefferson Krull...

my new favorite market personality / entertainer / commentator / ex-stock broker.

William Tell Overature air guitar

Testimonials - Money, Money, Money.

Love it! Better than Cramer.

Oh, another William Tell Overature performance:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-925100671087775495

Good trading.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

This market is tough...

but still doing a little buying - slowly.

This RIG looks like it wants to follow this ATW here. I think I have to add here. Watching that GSF too.

Bought a little DE for a trade because of the setup and a little more defensive with this market the way it is.

Added a little NYX on this dip and put in more bids in case it goes down a little more.

This CMG looks like a good setup too, watching it close.

gotta go - watching some others, GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

The markets regain some footing...

but are not "all clear" yet. I hope you used the correction time to hunt for some new leaders. Also, keep following the Big Picture in IBD.

I've been slowly buying a few of the names mentioned in the referenced post. Picked up some RIG, MER, and a couple of others yesterday - for trades.

Waiting on this SPR to tag 32.10 on some volume and I'll be loading up on that. Waiting on a couple of others that are getting ready to go. Again though, still following the markets, to see if this holds or rolls over for one more leg down.

Some others I'll continue to hold - like NYX, WFR, etc.

This NUAN starting moving again yesterday, and now that it is trading over $15, shows up on IBD's Stocks on the Move today, generating more buying. Watch for similar up and comers around this level

Most of the solar plays still moving. I'm watching all of these and will pick out the leader amongst all of those and out of the several pilot positions I now have.

Note, we had some follow-throughs fail during last summer's correction, so caution is still warranted. However, there are differences in the indices' charts and action that make me want to get a little more exposed right now on the long side. Slowly however, and with an itchy trigger finger.

The rate cut draws nearer.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Nice Close <eom>

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Regarding these rail mergers...

from Cramer's hypothesis and my comments. These transcontinental mergers I outlined have been anticipated for years so not much new here. But, maybe the numbers start to make more sense here, and the background political climate Cramer mentioned is an interesting thought.

However, maybe more probable of something happening right now in this transportation sector, would be some of these railroad companies merging with some of the different trucking companies, especially with fuel costs being what they are and probably at the lower range of where they will stay.

Haven't looked at any numbers lately of different truckers or areas served, but, that could be worth a look into.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

One other comment...

on the show tonight.

Cramer had on Monty Moran from Chipotle Mexican Grill - good interview. And why I like this chain and stock.

And by coincidence, we had Chipotle for dinner tonight.

A lot of leaders breaking out and/or going higher.

GL & GT tomorrow.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Regarding Cramer's Mad Money..

show tonight, and his monopolistic mergers segment and his number one pick regarding the railroads.

Yea, this would create stronger monopolistic pricing power creating a western RR and an eastern-part-of-the-country RR, but, both new systems would be more or less a heavily dual-duplicated line, including many major switching yards, etc. Maybe, then a new combined giant sells off some of those duplicated assets.

However, and I'm not sure why Cramer didn't do it different, a more likely scenario in this case (and actually better mergers) would be Burlington Northern going after Norfolk Southern and then Union Pacific going after CSX.

Why these combos instead? Because these two different mega-mergers would create two separate inter-continental Class I railroads. Combined with their different infrastructure including intermodal yards stretching from coast to coast, this is where you get true cost savings along with some growing monopolistic pricing power into certain markets.

How? Because a transcontinental railroad can offer much faster and more efficient transportation all the way across the United States to customers from either coast and/or the mid-west. Especially for intermodal containers from coastal ports as well as certain types of bulk commodities. And with two cross-country mega-carriers you still get the added benefit of creating an illusion of a competitive landscape with two major players (even though they do serve some different markets). This scenario also helps many other transportation companies that currently ship on their preferred/partnered different lines, companies like UPS, JB Hunt, Roadway, Schneider, many international shipping companies (Sea-Land, APL, etc), etc. Some of these existing partnerships wouldn't get near the benefit from a UP/BNSF merger like Cramer mentioned - so I'd say it's just not going to happen that way.

Plus, one interesting sidebar, do you know where much of this country's optical cable is laid, networks like Level Three's? In these companies right-of-way. Hmmmm.

I like UNP & CSX.

You want to really make things interesting and get trade going more seamlessly, what about the two Canadian Class I railroads, and Kansas City Southern (going to Mexico)?

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

There goes Apple...

there goes GOOG, there goes ICE, and some other leaders I'm watching.

Yesterday's market action was better than it looked on the surface at first. Volume was not as high as you would like, but, it increased on the Nasdaq from the day before, and the Nas also led the indices out of the red in the morning and the rest of the day.

Yesterday: Nas +0.7% S&P +0.3% DJIA +0.1%

And the IBD 100 +1.5% (these are some of the real leaders)

The leaders are acting well here. And the markets are opening weak and closing strong - also what you would like to see.

The markets are still red this morning, but, here goes NYX; and CMCSA looks to be starting too.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Great show last night...

Cramer's Mad Money was. I hope some of you got to see it. Well worth your time with the different general trading regimens he talked about last night, as well as interpreting his recommendations, reviewing his background and experience, and more importantly - honestly explaining his past and current motivation for managing his old fund and now doing the show. It wasn't his regularly formatted show.

He's doing good work and laying it all out there.

Regarding others who say he is not, I'd look closer at the people who are critical; they probably are not doing as well in this market or in the past.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

The market goes higher...

here, led by the Nasdaq this morning. The NYSE composite continues to perform. The small-caps continue to outperform. The mid-caps continue to do great.

Anybody reading, here are some stocks I like right now - for different fundamental and/or technical reasons (heavy on some Nasdaq issues). I'm in some, stalking and waiting on some others, and trading a few that I know well. Do your DD, this is not a buy list, just a PARTIAL list of names I'm watching and/or interested in this morning for a host of different reasons, including some stocks I've mentioned before.

AAPL AKAM APKT ATHR BRCM CMCSA CMG CROX CSCO FFIV FMCN GS GOOG GRMN HPQ ICE INFY ISE LQDT LVLT MER MSFT NUAN NYX PRFT RIG RIMM SI SIMO SIRF SPR SPWR STP T TRID TRMB VSAT VOCS VSNT WFR

There are host of others around the transportation, commercial/heavy construction, aerospace/defense, and other sectors I also like - I'll try to add some later at another time.

It's a bull market, until otherwise. Watch the leaders' action to make sure it confirms here, volume is still a little light in some stocks/areas.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Another good article on RealMoney...

by Cramer today, titled "Subprime May Give Fed Crisis Cover".

Rocommended reading.

Hopefully, you also got to listen a little to Bernanke speak yesterday or today.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Signs of the bull market...

continuing. This market is acting well here, as we wait further for a confirmation on the Nasdaq. Doing a little more buying, but, cautiously.

I also liked what I heard of that AKAM call and then it went on sale this morning. It is a later stage base so a little more caution is warranted, but, this one still looks like it has some room to run. Have to see how it and the market progress here and how we close today.

Still trying to get through all of the other calls.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

IBD's Big Picture...

I'd recommend reading this column everyday, but, especially in today's paper. It talks about leading stocks' stealth rally this morning.

This summarizes what I've been looking at the past couple of days, and it has reminded me of similar action seen last summer.

Watch the Nasdaq and the real leaders to see if it follows through. And heed the cautions and warning also touted in the same article in today's paper.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Some of the real market leaders...

are moving this morning on good volume, that is except for GOOG.

Doing some buying on some stocks I've been stalking and waiting on for awhile. It's looking good for the Nasdaq, even though it is slightly red still. Just have to keep monitoring this action to see if it follows through.

GL.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Good article today in IBD...

on Micron and Apple. Also, look at the Weekly Review list, the types of companies in the top 20 of that list - more on this later.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Great article...

on the market's emotional state right now, posted by Cramer on RM this afternoon, titled "This Isn't Complacency but Raw Fear".

What does his piece tell you about this market?

It tells me (and I agree), along with other signs, it's just what this market needs.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Let's see how we end up...

after the first 30 minutes this morning, and then at 10:30, but, the Nas is trying to breakout here.

Watching some key leading stocks that are poised to go right now.

Goog already going after that GS forecast upgrade.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

I'm starting to really warm up...

to this market again.

The Nas is the first to turn green again this morning and a bunch of leading stocks are showing some interest again.

Let's look for some real strength to show shortly (volume).

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

As I started writing this...

after 11 am EST, the Nasdaq is up 14, the Dow and S&P are down.

Intel up almost 4%, BRCM up 2%, even QCOM is up 3% today, and GOOG testing yesterday's high. Watching CSCO and some others this morning.

This kind of action is what you want to see for this market to ultimately go higher. The question is, will it hold today? And then can certain leading stocks start breaking through some resistance levels and do we start getting some real buying volume? Or do we have some more wild swings in store like yesterday.

Let's see how it closes today and this week and where the volume finishes, to see if it can hold. This market may need a little more time.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

It's starting off pretty slow...

today. Seems many participants are already out - finishing up shopping or traveling (or stuck in the snow).

Most everything is still getting sold this week, like RIMM this morning. But, it's mostly light, on low volume, so am waiting for a bounce. Will have to see how the markets finish out through next week. I'm quickly losing interest this morning.

Happy Holidays!

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

However, the volume started falling off...

right after I posted that previous message, not only on CSCO but on many other issues too. Big difference compared to how GE acted today.

Will have to see how CSCO and the markets begin next week, our last full week until the holidays.

Time to start the weekend and start that Chirstmas shopping.

GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Look at that buying pressure...

on CSCO this morning, right through that 27.5 strike.

Same as what happened yesterday with a bunch of other big names in this market. Cramer wrote about some of the names and action yesterday, i.e. AXP, etc.

It's a bull market.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

The Human Network...

Cisco's new ad campaign. This and all they are doing is discussed in IBD today, page A4.

Separate, Cramer's article " 'Tis the Season to Keep Buying Tech" this morning.

GL & GT.