MARKETS & TRADING

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Prudential and Time Warner...

is what Cramer talks about today in his piece titled "Cable Will Keep Running".

Worth noting as he mentions TWX, CMCSA, VZ, T, the business space, and Prudential's recommendation.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

What about the funds?...

What are most of them doing now?

There was a lot of good info in IBD yesterday in Section A about just that. And there's more out there.

And how about a little anecdotal analysis. If I remember correctly, Cody on RM yesterday was saying how upset he was that he missed this Monday's rally, and that he sold some of his CSCO calls the week prior. Hmmm, emotion cropping up. He's going to stick to his game plan for closing out the year, and protecting his profits, which is good. But, remember, it sounds like he is ahead of the performance curve.

Most funds and many hedge funds are underperforming at this time (and some still damaged from last summer). I think many have to buy more of the big names right now. And what about their emotions? Especially those damaged and/or with redemptions.

Expect some more volatility these remaining weeks, from that pressured buying and from some forced and protective selling (as well as pressured shorting from some hurtin' bears), but, I am leaning we still go out strong this year. And January should start out strong too.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Good article in IBD...

in today's paper (and posted on 12/1/06 online) titled "Life in the Web's Fast Lane", see page A8.

Talks about IBD's best performing tech group this year, the Internet Network Solutions group.

The other article by Deagon also on that page is good too.

See also the other related story links online for more ideas.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

A little caution...

still on names like FFIV, even though I like it. Because of the deep pullback this summer ($74 to $40). If I buy some, it will be with tight stops and also greatly depending on market performance - I'd really want to see some of the tech leaders/sectors perform well if/when we get this break(out).

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Some stocks to watch...

I like FFIV right here, but again, is it better to wait for a little better entry later this week, or is it going to go early? That's the question. Watch it close.

I like other things internet network related.

Gotta go, things heating up...

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Watching this tape...

this morning. I like that S&P Smallcap 600 chart, it's about ready to go. I like the Russell too, but forming a high pause here.

The equity markets look ever closer to go - to finish out the year on a charge.

The million dollar question is whether we do get a pullback/shakeout later this week, or if enough big buyers step in early right here.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Cleaning out the last of...

my various Dec calls, and starting buying further out MSFT calls yesterday. Wasn't sure how much more it was going to come in. Will see how today goes whether to continue or wait.

And, speaking of the communications and different networks convergence including cable and media, Cramer mentioned TWX yesterday. They are one more name in the space I think is really important right now.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Did some buying this morning...

and will be looking to add more on any weakness down to levels I like even better in a few names.

Although I usually prefer the small to midcaps, have been thinking more about some other mega-caps like AAPL, CSCO, MSFT - all bigger plays in the network stuff.

Still liking and trading the first two, and thinking about buying some MSFT if it trades deeper between it's 20 and 40 ema. Haven't owned it in years, but, think it's about time again. Will wait patiently to see if it pulls back a little more.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Come on in a little more...

That's what I'm hoping for on a few stocks, like NYX, etc.

I'll start buying some of that back around $98 if I get the chance & depending on the market. Maybe we'll get some other and better gifts too.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

It's all about the networks...

Networks of all kinds, that's what this continuing bull market might be based on.

Communication networks, is a better description, but that needs more clarification, especially where APKT is involved.

Telecom & IP communication networks - these are switching from the PSTN circuit based to IP. And, cable and bundled networks - several good plays here, too bad others like Cox went private. And then the convergence of voice (land & mobile), internet (data), media (cable & independent video). Think of all of the money being spent and look at all the stocks in this space and overlapping into this space.

Navigating through all this new networked content (the internet and these other networks now) - GOOG, BIDU, and others.

Social networks (Monetizing & Advertising) - Google is at the forefront of this.

Financial Networks - how about all of the exchange stocks (not to mention the changes, M & A's, and growth of all of the ECN's (Electronic Communication Networks) and the companies behind them).

Local Community Networks - Again, GOOG, and a range of companies from RIMM to GRMN that will help play a part eventually.

The other physical Community Networks - isn't this really what Starbucks is about (not the stores, but the brand, the people - you are the community network there).

AAPL - enabling access to all sorts of networks including there own (and should get even better early next year).

YHOO, TZOO, KNOT, TRAD, OXPS, TSCM, etc. - networks.

Gaming - networks more and more.

And I like those new commercials with the tagline "It's the Network" They (VZ and/or their ad firm) get it.

I know, a little esoteric, but, hopefully you get the message. There's a lot more to this simple list and a lot more stocks too.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Rolling, Rolling, Rolling...

A couple of good articles on basic/general options strategies on Real Money.

I noticed Cody wrote a piece yesterday about rolling up his call options and some basic strategies behind this.

I've been doing the same, however, I've been rolling out some of my calls which I started buying in September and which haven't moved significantly yet, but are now ATM - various Dec, and a couple Jan. Now is the time to start to plan as time decay starts accelerating (and if you set time stops).

Most of my other Dec calls I've already sold on spikes and have or plan to reload later with new ones further out and again slightly OTM if/when the stocks pull back. I'm still expecting further runs in the stocks I've been trading at least through the spring and on some even longer.

And just selling off some Dec GOOG and FMD calls today on the pops cause I've got a little too much leverage right now.

The other article posted today was titled "Options on Takeovers" by Steve Smith. Good points to consider and keep in the back of your mind given this market environment and if you are purchasing options right now on less liquid and less expensive stocks, ones that could be candidates for takeover. Even if there is a remote chance, you need to anticipate buyout ranges and keep your options closer to at-the-money or at least within your approximate buyout ranges, so if you do wake up one morning and hear the news, your don't find your OTM options worthless. I also adjust my timeframes shorter so less time premium is at risk. Even sometimes on larger names I do this, like MRVL last month when I was buying calls, with the rumors floating around (although I did buy a handful of LEAPS too).

Roll 'em up - closing your existing position and then opening a new position with the same expiration but a higher strike price.

Roll 'em down - same as above but at a lower strike price.

Roll 'em out - keep your position at the same stike price but roll out the expiration further.

Rawhide.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

I was just checking...

to see how long these previous links were good for, and the link in the referenced post is now to a different (revised) article. Maybe the guy's editor saw some of the same mis-prints and/or typos I saw and also had him change the title.

I guess from now on, I should learn how to paste a screen shot when I want to reference something on this board esp regarding news articles.

GL & GT.

Hope anybody reading got in on some FMD yesterday (from that IBD screen).

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Screen of the Day...

I just want to mention I like all of the Screen of the Day runs that IBD has scheduled for this week. All important metrics to follow - and important to study these names further.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

About that pop on Tuesday...

Cramer wrote about the impetus of that afternoon pop in his piece "Bullish Sign From Tuesday's Market Move" on 11/15/06 at 7:32 am. $500 M leveraged through futures and futures options rushing in from a big fund.

He didn't talk about the short covering and panic buying that resulted because of it as the stops above resistance were taken out. But, that's what I did, after booking some profits Monday and Tuesday a.m. selling some calls that were racking up big gains, I ended up buying almost an equal amount back of some new names Tuesday after the pop - cause you can't be out right now, not after that pop.

He also wrote more about the move in another piece or commentary, but, I can't find it now. I'd recommend trying to find it.

Other good pieces this last week include "No Reason to Stay Public" about how inefficient this market is pricing many stocks right now, stocks deemed "uninvestible" and/or just underpriced due to lack of sponsorship.

There have been several pieces on overall lack of supply - important messages that are right on target.

And my favorite of the week (so far), and a classic, and why I enjoy reading his commentary so much, his piece "Guilty as Charged on MasterCard".

Thanks Cramer.

I hope TSCM recovers for you. You deserve a better price on your shares for all you do.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Leading markets...

As noted previously regarding which market has most relevance on the distribution day count, it was the Dow and S&P since this rally began off the lows from mid-summer. Money was going to a lot of bigger issues and some more defensive names when there was still concern about a possible 4-yr cycle, etc.

More recent action including the Nasdaq's (and Russell's) surge yesterday, has been saying these concerns are over. If you have already, or are now piling into tech and/or smaller names, then the Nasdaq is the one to start monitoring first as it now has more relevance (which now is back at 3-dist day count).

And how about those semi's.

GL & GT.

Get ready for NMX.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

It's a BULL market...

And I like what I hear and read - i.e. doubters, defensive positions, etc. And a few people still thinking about a 4-yr cycle low/correction.

Also too bad it popped late today; would've been nice to stay under the radar a little longer with a break-even market day, even though under the surface it is anything but for a bunch of leading stocks. But, will take this ride however it goes.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

It's a bull market...

EOM.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

A new market phase...

Since last Friday's action and especially the last several days, it appears the steady up-trending market has changed and a new volatile market phase has begun.

Many of the leaders (esp. in the small and mid caps) as well as other names have gotten shot, breakouts and other moves heavily sold, and with another "official" distribution day added to the count, now at 4 for the Nasdaq, caution must be raised. Note: more recent selling has been seen other than the "official" count.

As the VIX starts to climb, I am doing some further trimming, but, still monitoring the markets & positions and holding my core long positions.

Afterall, it's still a bull market, just a more volatile one for now. Action will dictate if it is an intermediate top or if there are some more gifts out there around this end of fiscal year for funds. However, at least I'm no longer complacent by any measure - a positive.

So, watch the action, and if another distribution day starts to form in the Nasdaq before next Wednesday, then it would be time to protect recent gains and raise cash and/or hedge your positions.

One caveat, is that with the recent better performance and relative strength of the Dow and S&P over the past 4 or 5 months, is that the distribution day count on the S&P has more relevance than the Nasdaq, so at a 3-distribution-day-mark for the S&P currently, there is a little more breathing room depending on your actual holdings and comfort level.

Again, this is just another way for monitoring the general markets; individual charts and targets trump over this if sell signals are indicated.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Here's the headline and the data...

Headline: "Construction Spending Falls in September"
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061101/economy.html?.v=4 A fear piece on residential construction (which is about the only segment that did decline). There are also a couple of mis-prints and/or typos on the data stats.

Dept of Commerce data: Construction spending amounted to $903.2 B for the first 9 month, up 6.6% from the 847.1 B reported one year ago - Sept 2005 YTD (or +2.9% seasonally adjusted).
http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf
Again, big percentage gains in every non-residential category except one from a year ago (see Table 1 & 2).

Do your own DD, but, my headline for this report would read Construction Spending Rises in September, based on the numbers.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Gifts...

i.e. GOOG yesterday at 470.

If the market gets a little soft this next week, I'm looking for more gifts like that.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Markets with Capital "M"...

I wanted to start with the Dow, but, first, look at the Nasdaq yesterday. Busted through that recent pivot and resistance on huge volume - it's off to the races. Oh, same with the Russell after that little handle. People have been worried that the Dow has been leading this market, and about volume, etc., I think things are changing.

But, OK, back to the Dow - YM indicators on all time frames point up.

How about the components - AA about to break that trendline, AIG move yesterday, AXP see 9/25 and 9/26 - it's already left and look at that monthly chart, BA - looks like another gift to me, C look at the monthly chart saucer base, CAT - see my first posts on IH re: commercial construction ramping up - what a gift last Friday was, at least it was for me (for a trade), DIS - here it goes, HPQ started back in August, some other recent moves on volume - look at IBM, JNJ, KO, WMT, and don't forget MMM.

What about T, man, do I like T. And now watch Mr Softee and Intel add to the move.

Last - "everybody", again I mention "everybody", is talking about and looking for a significant pullback in these extended markets and telling everybody else that once this happens (after elections or this or that) to load up, back up the truck, buy! buy! buy! at certain lower price levels. With everybody talking this way, it is not likely going happen that way. Probably again just the opposite, anybody waiting for a big pullback now to load up on (cause it can't go higher) is likely going to feel more pain later of paying up much higher to get in.

You don't need to chase extended issues, one option is you can keep your eyes open for more "gifts" after doing your DD, and/or better, just look at your charts, many names are still within 5% of proper buy points. What's not to like? And I haven't even mentioned some smaller Nasdaq names.

You don't need to get reckless or euphoric to get in on some good moves still - you just need to watch price & volume, monitor the markets, and follow your rules.

Good luck, good trading, and have a good weekend.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Options - better pricing...

Interactive Brokers today started offering their customers penny-increment pricing on option limit orders on certain issues listed through the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Boston options exchange (BOX).

There are limitations currently with this and the NBBO (National Best Bid or Offer) and who actually sees your inside increment order. And some people are critical on some issues that the BOX (which was set up as a joint venture with IB) also gives brokerage firms the ability to take the other side of a customer's order through their "price-improvement period" (PIP). There is lots to consider and read on this issue.

But, overall, I believe it is another step in the right direction for greater options liquidity as more and more people trade options based on electronic platform exchanges and more exchanges will have to compete with better pricing. Ultimately leading to more transparent and increased options liquidity that also follows stock decimalization. And as a side, actually better stock liquidity for issues with high corresponding liquid options; based on related program trading as well as market maker and fund hedging. Case in point - GOOG.

More background info on the electronic exchanges working with IB: http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/article.asp?id=9755

Price Improvement - see links: http://bostonoptions.com/

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Think which stocks funds now must own...

And go buy some more yourself, as the buying pressure for the most popular names of this market is just going to increase over the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Check sponsorship on IBD's Daily Graphs / Fund Center.

And check and follow holdings and buys of the hottest funds too.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Long and Strong...

The big gains are made sitting on good positions of great stocks, and that's what I'm planning on doing unless something really changes.

Besides sitting, I am selling some calls along the way at pre-defined levels, i.e. some ROG calls today.

If any newer investors do read here, you need to use extreme caution whenever on margin. I have the luxury of watching my positions all day and can place hedges as I see fit. If you have less than a year or two experience, I would suggest take it easy on margin - your main goal is to preserve captial and stay in the game long enough to get experience. Most professionals' attitude is to protect capital, while most amateurs is to double their money on the next trade. Not realistic.

Good luck and good trading.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Whew! Just made it on that train...

This is a rare and/or special occasion - what have I been thinking? And I'm seeing beautiful charts, and even the not beautiful charts are even more so to me cause it's throwing more people off.

All in. Right here.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Another good day for the market...

and many stocks. I did do some trimming today, mainly SBUX, and now after seeing Schultz on Cramer's show, am hoping I get a chance to buy it back at a reasonable price.

It was a rebound play, from around 32 so it wasn't large, but, man is it strong too - like other big cap growth issues.

This market will need a rest, but, I still see and want to buy much more than I can right now. And I imagine other people do too.

Man, may have to move to a shorter timeframe and try to pick up more of these type of moves setting up.

Good luck all.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Thoughts on the market...

Lots to comment on, but, busy with our upcoming move.

So, quickly, the 9/6 and 9/7 distribution days fall off the radar at the close tomorrow giving the general market more breathing room on the next pullback.

I've loaded up on calls the past two weeks and today got into a little margin. This knowing I do have more trimming to do of pilot and smaller positions and will be selling those into any strength the next couple of days to get back off margin.

Even though I think this is just the beginning of a huge bull run, margin is reserved for only truely special and/or rare occasions/setups and sometimes bottoms(harder to do). And I sure missed the bottom opportunity this summer worrying about the 4-yr cycle, so not planning on using much here right now.

Preservation of capital is still rule #1.

If I see some beautiful chart in the coming month, and it warrants redistributing my funds I may put some margin to use then - only on the perfect setup(s). Even then still have to be cautious.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Dow high - More skepticism...

and many people remain unimpressed and cautious regardless of the Dow. Maybe even more so because it's not the Nasdaq making the news headlines.

I like it.

This was probably one of the few ways for the market to proceed to higher levels while leaving the crowd behind - a very unimpressive turn last summer in the markets, low volume much of the way since, as well as some other items (stealth action) mentioned in the past.

Hopefully, it stays this way for as long as possible with more "bad" news in the coming weeks keeping the crowd untrusting.

Hopefully too, the SOX stays stuck or heads down awhile longer (like more MRVL-type or options backdating news) even though some of the other lessor known semi related companies outside of the index quietly do just fine. Same sort of thing with the transport index - hope it dances around it's 200 ma as long as possible before plowing ahead like the SPX did two months ago.

And hopefully more media attention on maybe housing prices starting to "collapse" to levels not seen since, er, well, 2005.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

I mention some of the popular websites...

In case anybody is reading, and because these are some of the best resources for your dollar.

Have to mention the Rev again, because a lot of newer investors read him. But, where he says today he can't find much in the way of more speculative, IBD 100-type stocks with good charts (and I don't think the IBD 100 stocks are speculative), I am finding more than I can buy right now, right here - mostly different tech & finance/invst broker sectors.

Check out the screen-of-the-day listings too on IBD for some more ideas. Or pay up for a IBD Daily Graphs subscription and you can do your own screens based on IBD ratings and other parameters.

The only mega-cap I'm holding is some GOOG. Otherwise most issues are 200M to 2 B market cap stocks, with a couple of larger companies (but still with smaller floats). Most are still within or under proper buy point ranges as many have pulled back from recent (subtle but real) breakouts. So, I'm still working on my list of final core stocks I still need to trim down to.

GL, GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

More Stealth action....

This rally is just adding more pain and frustration to many participants it seems, and will add even more pain if the volume stays light and if we keep moving higher and break into high ground.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

"Feels Like the Real Thing"...

Article by Cramer on Real Money today regarding the market.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

For anyone still concerned on cycle lows,

I'd suggest a look at a 1994 historical chart on the SPX. If market catalysts become negative and hit the market in the next two months, we could get a seasonal pattern that could look more like that year. However, again, with so many people now aware of the 4-yr pattern, who is going to sell the market down into that huge pool of waiting buyers? I'd say odds of the market going back to retest summer lows are very low - it's not going to happen.

I mention 1994, because that cycle low (also a low percentage down move) turned out to be the initiation point of the great tech run from 1995 through '98 - a huge run. The market low that year was actually in April, with a retest in June and then the cycle low and start of the bull run was actually in the second week of December of 1994.

As I've mentioned before on Yahoo Goog board (sorry lost some posts from a corrupted cookie file from them), the unknown still is how many badly damaged funds are out there, and if any more have to liquidate this month/end of the year, does it trigger a selloff in some sectors? Again, I would say the odds are low, especially at this point now (I'll post more on this soon), but will have to wait and see.

If you're still concerned, I'd say focus instead on the gains of the 4-yr cycle (remember also 1998 to 2000). And, focus on the leading stocks and potential leaders right now.

I'm staying long (at 90%+, with 4% short on a homebuilder and ex-DOW component which I will probably cover next week on any weakness) and watching the market. And will trim and focus my total number of current positions down further depending on price/vol action to about 5 or 6 issues.

Below is a recap of some more historical info on the 4-yr cycle from Sam Stoval at S&P, FYI:

There are sixteen quarters in a full four-year presidential cycle, historically, only two have declined on average in the past (I find that amazing too) — the second and third quarter of the second year of the term. And, the best-performing quarter of all 16 quarters (in a presidential cycle) is the fourth quarter of the second year - the one we start tomorrow. The second best quarter is the first quarter of the third year.

Good luck.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

A Market That Deserves Promotion...

That's the title of Cramer's piece this morning on Real Money.

Notwithstanding, it highlights components of the economy that deserve promotion too.

There are many things to still watch for and be cautious of (Rule #1 never changes - to preserve capital), but, I'm with Cramer here.

This outlook on the market does not change anything, especially changing or becoming lax with one's trading plan or other rules. Nor should it lead to predictions. But it should help justify this run, especially if it continues after the next pullback.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Will have to see how this market continues....

But, my last remnants of short positions in a homebuilder and also an ex-Dow component that had to do with a dying industry may have to be covered shortly.

I think both are still going down longer term, but, if this market keeps going, the odds in any short positions are currently not in favor.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Man, am I out of sync?

This market is causing a lot of frustration to a lot of people out there.

I was just scanning Real Money and the Rev is saying he is very defensively postured right now. I really like what the Rev writes and shares in all his posts and often find myself in sync with his outlooks, but, where he says right now he can't find opportunity in individual charts my stance is just the opposite right now. I'm seeing the charts of the few stocks I've been stalking for some time (tech and financial sectors) saying buy me now or add more.

So that's what I've been doing.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

The Rally continues....

I won't rehash some good info in IBD today - and I am not affiliated with them in anyway - so if you haven't already, I'd recommend checking out The Big Picture online tonight as well as Tuesday's edition. Also, there is some good info on page B14 of Tuesday's edition.

I missed one breakout today and then missed getting filled on a couple of orders for a pullback. Typically during the past couple of years this would not be a concern, as most BO's from high pivot's retraced back below buy points within several weeks time. Things may be changing here - will have to monitor recent BO's closely, and maybe pay up in the next week or so on this one.

Also have started building two core long positions this past week and did a lot of work today on one during it's pullback. My own rules have prevented me from building these too quickly to their full weights, although it appears I should have with recent action. May have to modify some rules.

If you haven't already, another great read is John Carter's "Mastering the Trade". Regarding rules, he talks at length about having a trading plan/business plan. That's what I refer to above re: rules.

Have also begun thinning out some pilot buys and narrowing the focus on the remaining names.

I don't mind sharing names, but, I do think it's better for most people (including me) to spend the extra time and find their own list per their own style. That, and I don't know if anybody is checking here anyway - so maybe this is just a thought clarification exercise.

Have to watch the market closely here, and not predict, but just go with the trend. Those two distribution days on 9/6 and 9/7 will fall off the radar later next week - if we don't get anymore by then.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Needed Sentiment for a Bull Run...

A review of the latest sentiment among market commentators and it seems many participants are jittery, nervous, distrustful, and waiting for a major market pullback sometime this fall before they put any real money to work on some long positions.

Remembering back to last spring, we had a lingering bullish sentiment from the beginning of the year, when everyone was anticipating higher moves into all-time highs, and it lasted well into the summer following the correction. People now seem wary to even nibble at their favorite stocks - some of which are now on sale from prices seen 6 months ago, because they are waiting for retests of those summer lows.

In a bull market the sentiment is bearish. In a bear market the sentiment is bullish (for the majority of players).

Spring 2000, as everyone started talking about the stock market and the new economy everywhere you went during February and March 2000 - that was the time to be selling. Climatic tops were actually beginning to occur at the end of December of 1999. And as the market started the huge gyrations that spring the mantra on the street was "buy any pullbacks". That mood persisted for much of the year and into the next.

For now the trend is up and the rally intact and the sentiment I read and hear would suggest the market is pushed higher. Who's going to do all that selling into those ready and waiting buyers down below several levels. The only group I can think of are some badly damaged hedge funds that are forced to.

But, let's watch the action. If I had to guess, I would imagine some of the those buyers will be moving into the market later just when we reach higher levels where some of the first real sellers will come out.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Nobody Trusts this market...

And haven't trusted it for some time, so it keeps going on it's run.

There seems to be much money on the sidelines right now. And many players are or have already scaled out recently around these levels.

Trading acumen would say we prepare to go lower here, but, look at some of the different market internals especially today.

Everyone is waiting and wanting a correction (a major seasonal/cycle plunge) to load up on. Everybody it seems. Hello?

One thing about this rally, there has been quiet buying action going on since the July low. The Nasdaq did not roll over, but worked very quietly, casting doubt along the entire re-building process since then.

With all of the program trading and hiding of larger orders, signs of real buying in the charts during periods like this are more subtle. Remember, you're not trading stocks, and you're no longer trading people in many cases now, you're trading computers, or more specifically programmed markets running on programs prepared by the best minds out there backed by almost unlimited resources. And you have programs trading against programmed-driven setups. And the programs and counter-programs are constantly tweaked for better performance and more efficient use of funds. And the programmers come from places like MIT, etc. and in some cases they are making more than their colleagues on the trading desks from what I hear. Profits are up on the trading desks, but, is it because of the trader's or the programmer's work? Things to consider.

Chart patterns of different kinds are more frequently negated and sidestepped or seem just overlooked - by these programs? And that may include the seasonal, four-year presidential cycle pattern. What about different TA patterns? No matter how much you learn about the markets, if you do not have funds to move a market or connected to entities that do, you are then at the total mercy of those who can move markets, and much of that money is being better managed by programs all the time and getting better every month. More to consider here.

Nobody trusts this market, well, except for maybe some programmers and their employers and also Cramer. Have you been listening to his calls for a little over the past week now? I just mention it, because I mentioned a defensive call of his several weeks ago (on Yahoo! Goog board), which has since changed.

There may be still good reason to not trust this market, especially during the next month, but, for now I have to keep proceeding with caution in this confirmed rally (talk about a wall of worry!).

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Posted this general market note here:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13388269

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

A great book on the events at Ground Zero on 9/11.

Last Man Down, by Richard Picciotto.

One of many powerful stories from that day.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

More on the 1993 World Trade Center bombing...

The FDNY was credited with fast response time and command decisions for getting firefighters w/ small hand lines down into the lower levels of the parking area /substructure and extinguishing all of the fires throughout the structure.

This ultimately led to saving the site from further damage by fire such as subsequent collapse of the structures around the blast crater. Consequently the remaining mechanical equipment serving the entire complex was also saved as well as less smoke damage into the superstructures and less hazards for all of the complex occupants during the evacuation.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

More on the Man Who Predicted 9/11...

Rick Rescorla presumably stayed aware of the 1993 bombing investigations not only by the FBI, PA, ATF, NYPD, FDNY, FEMA but also by other outside engineering and other committees, such as the American Society of Civil Engineers, etc. as well as following the later trials.

Many strongly believed the 1993 bombing was intended to bring down the north tower with hopes that it would fall into the south tower. The explosion was also supposed to disperse a large cloud of cyanide gas in the area, killing more people, however, the flash fire from the blast also burnt the lethal gas thus making it ineffective.

Some of the people who concluded that the intent was to topple tower 1 into tower 2 included structural engineer, Leslie Robertson, of Worthingto, Skilling, Helle & Jackson, the original engineering consultant for the towers who also worked during the 1993 repair. In Yousef's trial, Secret Service agent Brian Parr also testified that Yousef himself told him of his plans on the flight back to the U.S. in 1995. U.S. District Judge Kevin Duffy also believed this as stated during the trial by the U.S. attorney(s).

I wish I had more reference material available today, but, I don't. I had my old computer hard drive crash and wasn't diligent with backing up some info like on the WTC.

Here are some links if you're interested in the first failed attempt to bring down the towers:

There is one report I refound on the web that shows the damage in a schematic diagram (see page 6). Basically, the epicenter of the blast was in the substructure just outside of the SE corner of the perimeter columns of the north tower, 1 WTC. Also look at the photographs in the Appendix A - of the unsupported columns in the 4-level high crater in the basement.
http://www.firetactics.com/wtc-93.pdf#search=%22world%20trade%20center%2C%201993%20bombing%2C%20engi...

The actual columns to tower one were reported basically undamaged as they were part of a massive steel grillage and heavily reinforced shear wall below the concourse level. But, part of the Vista Hotel almost came down in 1993 which could've led to further damage.

After 1993, with the PA finally addressing security concerns for the underground parking at the WTC (as Rescorla had pointed out to them when he started at Morgan Stanley), he then thought that the next probable mode of attack would be by air. This was maybe more credible as more info came out about Ramzi Yousef's previous plot to blow up eleven U.S. commercial aircraft over the Pacific as well as the bar where early plans were made. That info was obtained from information found on his computer.

http://www.fas.org/irp/world/iraq/956-tni.htm

http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1099927167821

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/correspondent/2978948.stm

Never Forget.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

A Tribute to a 9/11 Hero

In Monday's edition of IBD, Rick Rescorla's life is highlighted on the Leader's and Success page (A3).

In case you haven't seen it already, there is also a 2005 TV documentary on Rick called "The Man Who Predicted 9/11". I imagine it will be playing on different cable stations this weekend; it is highly recommended.

Also check out this book if you haven't read it: Heart of A Soldier, by James B. Stewart.
http://www.amazon.com/Heart-Soldier-Story-Heroism-September/dp/0743240987

And just found this on the web, the last photo taken of Rick in the south tower on 9/11/01 shortly before it collapsed. http://www.medaloffreedom.com/RickRescorla1.htm

Hang or display at least one flag on Monday.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Welcome all.

Lets see if this develops into something worthwhile and more on the professional side.

I found there were some very experienced people posting occasionally on the Yahoo! boards. However, without the moderator feature, most of their boards were overrun with spam and other abuses and the quality posters were simply buried.

More thoughts later for this new board.

Good trading!