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the plan to buy...
after earnings is still in effect - hope it works out.
website needs a little work...
http://www.starfruitcafe.com/
Lifeway Foods Launches Starfruit, New 'Kefir Boutique' Cafe Selling Frozen Kefir & Kefir Smoothies
Thursday March 27, 5:28 pm ET
MORTON GROVE, Ill., March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Lifeway Foods, Inc. (Nasdaq: LWAY - News), the country's leading manufacturer of kefir and a provider of other natural and organic dairy products, is opening its first "kefir boutique" cafe with the April launch of Starfruit in Chicago. The shop will offer several flavors of frozen kefir with over 20 toppings as well as customized kefir parfaits, and smoothie-style kefir drinks.
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The new retail concept will debut at 1745 W. Division Street in the trendy Wicker Park neighborhood and serve as a prototype for possible future Starfruit locations. The expansion into retailing provides a new sales channel for Lifeway's products, coincides with the resurgence in the frozen yogurt category and offers an opportunity for Lifeway to promote the health benefits of its kefir products beyond grocery shelves.
Those benefits include 10 live and active probiotic cultures that have been shown in various studies to enhance the immune system, fight fatigue, promote gastrointestinal health, aid in vitamin and mineral absorption, and ease lactose intolerance. Yogurt has a similar taste and texture to kefir but many of these frozen yogurt style shops do not use a real live and active product and contain only two or three of these cultures if any.
"Starfruit will capitalize on the renewed popularity of frozen yogurt shops while offering a healthier alternative with all the probiotic benefits of kefir," said Julie Smolyansky, President and CEO of Lifeway Foods Inc. "We have been pioneering leaders in the field of probiotics and kefir. This leadership will translate into the quality of the Starfruit product line. This is a promising diversification that will leverage our leadership in the kefir market, familiarize a whole new group of consumers with kefir as well as teach existing customers new ways to consume kefir, and provide a potentially very lucrative new revenue stream. We anticipate the grand opening will be on April 15, when customers can take their mind off of their taxes by getting a free treat"
For more information visit http://www.starfruitcafe.com or call 847-967-1010.
gonna wait until after they...
report the EPS number for 4th Q and full year and hope to pick up on some weakness - we'll see.
nice chart...
hope that downtrend continues in milk prices - then it becomes a big buy.
Looks like this Quarter margins may improve vs last Q.. Milk prices..the type II
In, then out, then in...
then got out again - and now thinking hard about getting back in - hmmmmmmmmm.
Lifeway Foods Announces Expanded Distribution and Growing Success of ProBugs(TM) Organic Kefir for Kids
MORTON GROVE, Ill., March 20, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via LWAY, , ) , makers of the nutritious, probiotic dairy beverage called Kefir, announced today, ProBugs(TM), the organic Kefir designed for kids, has secured new and expanded distribution for all three SKU's, in several chains across the country. These include about 160 new stores in the Harris Teeter grocery chain in the southeast, 75 new Cub Food Stores in the Midwest, and an increase from 30 test stores to about 175 stores at Ralph's, a Kroger owned grocery chain in southern California. This new distribution is in addition to the growing success of the product line at existing retailers such as Whole Foods, Kroger, and other smaller independent chains.
Julie Smolyansky, Lifeway's CEO, commented, "We are very excited that ProBugs(TM) continues to grow tremendously, and as product line introduced only a year and a half ago, we feel it is already a success. Each month we ship more product than the previous month and this is a clear indication of the product's success."
About Lifeway Foods
Lifeway, recently named Fortune Small Business' 97th Fastest Growing Small Business, and one of only 4 companies to ever be named to the list four straight years in a row, is America's leading supplier of the cultured dairy product known as kefir, and now America's only supplier of Organic Kefir. Lifeway Kefir is a dairy beverage that contains Lifeway's exclusive 10 Live and Active probiotic cultures. While most regular yogurt only contains two or three of these "friendly" cultures, Lifeway kefir products offer more nutritional benefits. Lifeway offers 12 different flavors of its Kefir beverage, Organic Kefir and SoyTreat (a soy based kefir). Lifeway recently introduced a series of innovative new products such as pomegranate kefir, Greek-style kefir, a children's line of organic kefir products called ProBugs(TM) in a no-spill pouch in kid-friendly flavors like Orange Creamy Crawler and Sublime Slime Lime, and a line of organic whole milk kefir. Lifeway also produces a line of products marketed in US Hispanic communities, called La Fruta, Drinkable Yogurt (yogurt drinks distinct from kefir). In addition to its line of Kefir products, the company produces a variety of cheese products and recently introduced a line of organic pudding called It's Pudding!.
Clinical study results posted on company web-site: http://www.lifeway.net/minute/health2.pdf
A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial studied 135 hospital patients taking antibiotics and randomly assigned a 100 g drink containing the probiotic culture Lactobacillus casei, also found in Kefir, and several other probiotic strains. The participants consumed the drink twice a day during a course of antibiotics and for one week after the antibiotic course was completed. Patients who consumed the probiotic drink were significantly less likely to have diarrhea than the placebo group, and probiotics reduced the risk of diarrhea by 22%.
Bill
chart took a turn for...
the worse - so caution is advised. needed to break to the upside with the recent good news - on low volume so far so not a lot of damage - still, it is what it is.............
I think there is reason to be optimistic here...
They had the guts to call a price increase.. I think they got it! They seem to be good business people... Everything about this company is good... product, young mgr's, production... That's why it trade ahead of itself IMO... I do strongly believe they will find a way to get gross profit back to 45%.... yep.
one thing that makes me...
somewhat optimistic on the market is that the QID has a gap below and QQQ has a gap above - market efficiency theory says those gaps need closed and for that to happen - market goes up.
That said - I ain't all that optimistic!
LOL... Fan of both!
Giff, I see you list 'Colts' as a hobby. Just wondering, do you collect Colts (the pistols), or is it the football team? I ask because I once had a Colt Huntsman .22 pistol.
a key to the King Soopers deal...
is that it will have an immediate impact as the stores place initial orders to stock shelves - so 1st Q 08 may be fairly big and it will all be at the higher cost.
About 140 stores!
gfp927z.. So you know... I don't own this stock right now....
I'm over 30% in QID....That is the short of QQQ NASDAQ 100... I'm calling that to $55 and will hang tough there....
I was lucky to call that in the $44 range and with my trade trigger trailing stop will have nice gain this year. Should the market continue to decline my profits continue to increase.
more optimistic am I...
with new distribution agreement and believe we've seen only a limited positive impact from food distributin agreement - expect to see something materialize there. with additonal capacity at headquarters going to see some improved margins and more aggressive marketing in attempts get closer to the 100 mil capacity they're now sporting. Rate cut environment favors growth - and this is a growth stock - which in the blink of an eye can easily get back to 40 - 60% yoy growth. They have very low market penetration and a great product.
think share buyback puts a floor on share price - hopefully they will support in $10 range and make this the bottom - chart seems to indicate this.
Some recent key developments:
-King Soopers picks up Lifeway - King Soopers operates about 140 stores in the Colorado area.
-Complete Expansion: "This expansion project gives us the much needed flexibility to finish moving the production of our Helios Organic kefir line, acquired in 2006, from its current production facility in Minnesota to our main Illinois facility, where we can use our larger scale and automated production efficiencies to produce at a lower unit cost."
Giff, Well that explains it. You've got those rose colored glasses on :o) The consensus numbers look more realistic, though maybe a little optimistic for 2008 also.
I guess the price of milk will be the big factor, and we have no control over that. The downside with the across the board price increase is that it could cut into sales, thereby negating some of the desired effect.
I see the consensus is for another .03 cent quarter in Q4-07, though I guess if it's widely expected, the effect on pps would be muted. So maybe we are near a bottom after all. The chart seems to suggest that's the case. Of course there's always the broader market to worry about. I'm figuring the Dow goes back to test the 11,500 level, and eventually to 10,000. If this turns out to be a true bear market, it could be protracted. I remember the 1973-75 bear (my dad owned some stocks), and it was relentless, it just wore you out. There's a growing chance we might be in for something like that again.
Report Card! Old Giff math......
Item......... Giff.............. actual........... delta
Revs........ $39.2 mil ... $38.8 mil... $400K
NI........... $5.8 mil ....... est $3.6.... $1.2 (ouch)
Miss that last Q huge!
Not bad though for last March! Show how astute you need to be each Q.. at raws and ever changing environment.
That's a Giff chart... LOL You gotta watch that giff math....
So you think I'm optimistic.. LOL.. I'm assuming they got there price increase!
Also if you look hard at that spread, you can see COGS in the 55% of revenue ranges... Just think about once they get back to that range.... It will take a while for price increase to take full effect and I think food raws will drop too...
this is there Consensus Forecast chart
Date... low High
Dec 2007 0.03 0.03
Mar 2008 0.06 0.07
Jun 2008 0.07 0.07
Sep 2008 0.075 0.08
Dec 2008 0.075 0.08
Giff, Thanks for the chart. They estimate earnings of .037 in Q-4-07, followed by an amazing recovery in 2008 to the .08-09 range for four straight quarters. That sounds overly optimistic to me, but would be most excellent if it happens.
One question - do you know if the firm that came up with these numbers has a banking relationship with Lifeway? Thanks.
Might not be a bad short...
If you compare to the other food companies... It trades much higher then average. It's got a pretty high short ratio though.. others believe it's worthy...
Now About the future? Who can predict?
Facts..
- Up 3.6% in revs
- November 29, 2007 Lifeway Foods Announces Full Product Line Price Increase increase of approximately 10-15%... This price increase will go into effect in December 2007
Did they get the increase?
- 4th revs up 3.6% to $10,170,000
- 3Q revs... Some GIff math
Assumption they got it mid December with typical growth 1%
1st Oct and Nov = $9,817,478/3 months = $3,272,492.67 x 1% growth x (oct-nov) months = $6,610,435.19
2nd December ($3,272,492.67/2= $1,636,246.33 x 1% = $1,652,608.80 x .10% = $1,817,869.68 + $1,652,608.80 = $3,470,478.47
Oct - Nov $6,610,435.19 + Dec $3,470,478.47 = $10,080,913
Compare: $10,170,000 actual vs $10,080,913
One can conclude they got the increase... In fact, I did the same with 2% growth... This is what I got... $10,180,724.69
I say the analyst are close right now after last Q.... all missed on food raw material... price went up too fast to know.
With a few assumptions... Got the 10% price increase... 2% growth... same % SG&A....
With this.. today trading at forward 30.. I guess the analyst are pretty close...
I think we trade a little ahead given the cost of dairy raws too.
Giff, Well, in two years we could all be dead too, lol.
I don't know, I like Lifeway and have been tempted to buy some, but I want to see a sign that earnings are going to rebound. If Q4-07 was another .03 cent quarter, this thing will get whacked again.
Just noticed that's a 2009 2 yr forward.... via the Analyst Firms on the Nasdaq page...
Giff, How do you figure a forward PE of 20? With the current shareprice of $10, Lifeway would have to generate .50 cents in earnings over the next 4 quarters to have a forward PE of 20. That's over .12 per quarter. There's no way that's going to happen. Earnings over the next several quarters will likely be .04-.06 per quarter, and possibly get back to .07-08 if we're lucky in the last quarters of 2008. So, say an average of .06 cents/quarter for 2008, would give a forward PE of 42.
I think the thing that affected everyone's valuation metrics was the big jump in revenues and earnings from the Helios acquisition in 2006, but that was just a one time event. Between Q1-06 and Q1-07, revenues grew by 50%, and earnings by even more. But then between Q1-07 and Q1-08, revenue growth slowed to approx 20%, and earnings collapsed. The big question now is how long before an earnings recovery? We can't begin to gauge that until the company releases the earning numbers for Q4-07 in ... April - 4 months late.
Here are the approx revenues for the last 4 years -
Q4-04 4.2 mil
Q1-05 4.7 mil
Q2-05 4.8 mil
Q3-05 5.2 mil
Q4-05 5.2 mil
Q1-06 6.0 mil
Q2-06 6.4 mil
Q3-06 7.5 mil
Q4-06 7.9 mil
Q1-07 9.0 mil
Q2-07 9.7 mil
Q3-07 9.8 mil
Q4-07 10.2 mil
Q1-07 ~10.7 mil(?)
oh so you see...
and so many things are crazy in the market...
Did you notice how the analysts, articles started pumping the crap out of this one back.. target thinking was $.36/share?
Go back an notice around Sept - Oct time frame...
- IBD accolades keep coming
- The Wall Street Buy List
- etc...
So today... High price of corn got'm..... Target thinking is $.21 by 4th Q 2008....
So at today's price.... Forward PE of 20... a fair price in my mind.
Giff, Comparing the two companies, they have the same market cap, but Schiff has $168 mil in revenues, vrs only $36 mil for Lifeway. Also, net income for Schiff is $11 mil vrs only $3 mil for Lifeway. And earnings growth for Schiff was a positive 24% vrs a negative 36% for Lifeway.
Giff, Well, with the stock cut in half, they've certainly done that.
If you haven't listened to the analyst interview on Market Watch from several weeks ago, they bring up some good points, especially the lack of company guidance ahead of the disastrous .03 quarter. Analysts will be very wary for a long time, unless the company starts communicating better. He also pointed out that even at $10, the stock still has one of the highest PEs in the sector. And the Yahoo PE still reflects the blowout .07-.08 cent quarters from early '07, which are not likely to be repeated for some time. So the PE is actually much higher if you figure in a couple .04-.05 quarters going forward. The analyst also criticized the share buyback announcement, coming as it did in the face of steady insider selling.
Also, has the company ever publicly explained their retail store strategy? We need to know the scope of their plans, how much it will cost, etc. This is a publicly traded company, and if they want to attract investors they're going to have to start communicating.
Julie said something to the effect, they are going to let performance speak for itself.
Is this company worth $170 million?
Compare these...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WNI
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LWAY
Do you see the difference? Maybe this?
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 1.80%
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 31.70%... respectively
We are growing into our shoes so to speak.. IMO
OldPro, Making investors and analysts wait 4 months for Q-4 earnings isn't exactly the best way to build confidence or loyalty to the company. Neither is having only one conference call per year.
April is full year 07 and...
4th Q 07 combined - it's the 10K. 1st Q 08 won't come until early May in a 10Q.
It's easy to check - just go back and see how they filed last yr, yr before, etc - type of filing and what period it covered.
OldPro, Wouldn't the April release be for Q1-08? The earnings report I was referring to was for Q4-07.
EPS historically released...
in April in the 10K - will likely have to wait and they will have a conf. call.
Lots of ways to value a company - Use PEG to account for strong growth and LWAY has upside - factor in price increase, falling milk prices (hopefully??), more production going to Illinois headquarters for higher margins, new distribution (food service and retail), and growing orders at existing customers and you have a winner.
growth stalled for a quarter and should be back on track - local sales appear to have increased substantially - but it's only observational data.
OldPro, Since the revenue numbers for Q4-07 have been released, shouldn't the earnings also come out, after the usual 6 week delay? Or will the Q4 earnings be included only in the April release of full year 2007 results? That would suck. I think what the market is waiting for is those Q4-07 earnings numbers.
These are key because when you figure the stock valuation, if Q4 was a .04 cent quarter, projecting that rate of earnings ahead would make for a still sky high PE of 62 at the current $10 share price. Likewise, if the earning were .05 cents, you still get a very high PE of 50, and .06 cent would give a PE of 42, etc. As the market Watch analyst noted, Lifeway's valuation is still way up there, and a resumption of earnings growth is needed or the stock could have more downside. I'm figuring .04 cents doesn't help us much, but .05 cents could start a sustainable pps recovery.
a very important question right...
now is - have we bottomed? I think so.
per last year filings - don't...
expect earnings and full year 10K until early April. They said they would have a conf. call - don't know if they'll provide guidance. the expansion was a doubling of production capacity that will allow them to transfer more operations to their headquarters outside of Chicago where margins are higher as well as meet future demand needs.
milk prices have moderated somewhat - but still high - LWAY needs their price increase to take hold and that should get profit back up where they get noticed. On a personal note - the Kefir in local health food store and local Country Market is selling very well based on observations of turnover in product - I stop in these stores once or twice a week just to check.
New distribution agreement in Colorado is all new and appears to be significant. Should be an immediate bump in revenue as new stores stock up - which should lead to a pretty positive outlook for Q1 08 if they choose to provide one.
Don't know much about the trading except did notice it in past 10Qs but not certain if is just an accounting term or what it actually refers to. The ananyst haven't cited it as an issue and it appears to be small - so I haven't paid much attention to it.
I'm pretty positive on LWAY and believe they are a possible target for buyout. think their organic growth can really accelerate going forward as market penentration is extremely low. Kefir is one of those things that it could get red hot and become a must try/have product with the right marketing, health study, or even if Oprah decides she likes it - lol.
OldPro, Shouldn't the earnings for Q4-07 be out next week? For some reason they always seem to issue the revenue data right after the quarter ends, but the earnings figures don't come out until 6 weeks later.
Do you know if the company plans a conf call in Spring? They definitely need to have conf calls more often. The analyst interviewed on Market Watch several weeks ago also noted that lack of shareholder communication is a problem for Lifeway. He really lambasted the company for failing to provide any guidance prior to the .03 cent quarter debacle. That's the kind of thing that can put Wall St analysts off a stock for a long time. They also need to provide more info on the retail store concept. Is the Chicago store a one-off exercise, a test run to be expanded upon in Chicago, or beyond? What will the costs be in opening/running these stores?
Another question I have is what's up with all the trading they seem to do with the company's cash every quarter? This usually adds to profits, but seems unorthodox and risky. Do you know if this trading is related to milk futures or something? That would make sense to do, but over on the Yahoo board discussion a while back, it sounded like they were doing trading outside of the realm of what is related to the company's business.
The completion of the plant expansion was very good news, as was the expansion in distribution in Colorado. Milk prices have moderated, which is a plus. For the last quarter I'm guessing around .04-.05 in earnings (up from the previous disastrous .03, but still way down from the blowout .07 quarters of early 2007). Since there may not be additional acquisition targets out there like Helios, Lifeway needs to keep aggressively expanding their distribution network.
takeover? - if ever a time...
would think it would be now. from a historical standpoint would have to think it's priced right IMO, with capacity expansion completed and growing distribution.
be nice to get a bid to see what DA or others value it at.
this stock was a big winner...
for me in 2007. back in now and will look to buy back in big in coming weeks. Believe they had a lull in business due to high milk prices and expansion related efforts. Should be good to get back on the rapid growth track. Raised prices to deal with milk costs - and expanded distribution should keep sales growing.
finished down for the day...
on most significant news in quite a while - go figure - tough market.
chart shows bollinger bands are...
tighter than a tick - wanting to blow either up or down. placed some $$ on move up:
Thanks - Kefir recently added to country market...
franchise stores in area, have organic food section - which appears to be a new trend for stores - and LWAY products now in that section. Ironically they are priced higher at the Country Market stores than at the local health food store.
down 5% or so from December...
http://future.aae.wisc.edu/data/monthly_values/by_area/2?area=US&tab=prices&grid=true
but not sure it will ever come down again given the price of oil and the ethanol effect...
I big boost for all food sector would be for US to stop the import tax on this fuel and subsidies.
What new stores can lifeway products go? I think they still have some growth left here...
Dead money in GXYF right now so learned to be overly aware of the raw prices.. LOL
giff - you have a take...
on milk prices?
iwth this news today I think...
it may have bottomed.
Lifeway Kefir Gains New Distribution in Colorado With King Soopers Chain
9:00a ET February 12, 2008 (PR NewsWire)
Lifeway Foods, Inc. (Nasdaq: LWAY), the nation's leading kefir manufacturer announced that 4 flavors of Lowfat Organic Kefir will now be distributed to Colorado's King Soopers Grocery stores, owned by Kroger, based in Cincinnati, Ohio. Shipments of organic Blueberry, Pomegranate/Acai, Raspberry, and Strawberries n' Cream kefir will begin this week. Expanded demo, marketing and advertising in the market is being coordinated in conjunction with Earth Month in April to support new kefir sales at the chain and promote the benefits of organic foods.
"We are incredibly excited that Lifeway Kefir continues to gain acceptance in the mass market grocery chains," exclaimed Julie Smolyansky, Lifeway Foods' President and CEO. Smolyansky also added, "We still have many chains to expand distribution with our conventional and organic kefirs as well as our other new products including ProBugs(TM) and our multipack kefirs. We will immediately begin to benefit from our recent expansion project and have no concerns over limited capacity."
King Soopers operates about 140 stores in the Colorado area.
About Lifeway Foods
Lifeway, recently named Fortune Small Business' 97th Fastest Growing Small Business, and one of only 4 companies to ever be named to the list four straight years in a row, is America's leading supplier of the cultured dairy product known as kefir, and now America's only supplier of Organic Kefir. Lifeway Kefir is a dairy beverage that contains Lifeway's exclusive 10 Live and Active probiotic cultures. While most regular yogurt only contains two or three of these "friendly" cultures, Lifeway kefir products offer more nutritional benefits. Lifeway offers 12 different flavors of its Kefir beverage, Organic Kefir and SoyTreat (a soy based kefir). Lifeway recently introduced a series of innovative new products such as pomegranate kefir, Greek-style kefir, a children's line of organic kefir products called ProBugs (TM) in a no-spill pouch in kid-friendly flavors like Orange Creamy Crawler and Sublime Slime Lime, and a line of organic whole milk kefir. Lifeway also produces a line of products marketed in US Hispanic communities, called La Fruta, Drinkable Yogurt (yogurt drinks distinct from kefir). In addition to its line of Kefir products, the company produces a variety of cheese products and recently introduced a line of organic pudding called It's Pudding!
"Orange Creamy Crawler' and 'Sublime Slime Lime'. Who comes up with these names? I guess they're trying to appeal to kids, but 'Slime' and 'Crawler'? Yuk.
>>> Lifeway Foods Announces Completion of $2.5 Million Production Capacity Expansion Project
Thursday February 7, 4:00 pm ET
MORTON GROVE, Ill., Feb. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Lifeway Foods, Inc., (Nasdaq: LWAY - News), makers of the nutritious, probiotic dairy beverage called Kefir, announced today the completion their production capacity expansion project at their main Morton Grove headquarters facility. The project, which cost approximately $2.5 million and took about one and a half years to complete, will approximately double Lifeway's existing production capacity.
Julie Smolyansky, Lifeway's CEO, commented, "We are very excited to have completed our first major expansion project in over 8 years. We have grown tremendously in the last few years and the time had come to increase our capacity to get ready for the future. Our main focus now is to obviously fill this new capacity, which is a very exciting prospect, and one which we are confident we will succeed in."
Edward Smolyansky, Lifeway's CFO, commented, "This expansion project gives us the much needed flexibility to finish moving the production of our Helios Organic kefir line, acquired in 2006, from its current production facility in Minnesota to our main Illinois facility, where we can use our larger scale and automated production efficiencies to produce at a lower unit cost."
About Lifeway Foods
Lifeway, recently named Fortune Small Business' 97th Fastest Growing Small Business, and one of only 4 companies to ever be named to the list four straight years in a row, is America's leading supplier of the cultured dairy product known as kefir, and now America's only supplier of Organic Kefir. Lifeway Kefir is a dairy beverage that contains Lifeway's exclusive 10 Live and Active probiotic cultures. While most regular yogurt only contains two or three of these "friendly" cultures, Lifeway kefir products offer more nutritional benefits. Lifeway offers 12 different flavors of its Kefir beverage, Organic Kefir and SoyTreat (a soy based kefir). Lifeway recently introduced a series of innovative new products such as pomegranate kefir, Greek-style kefir, a children's line of organic kefir products called ProBugs (TM) in a no-spill pouch in kid-friendly flavors like Orange Creamy Crawler and Sublime Slime Lime, and a line of organic whole milk kefir. Lifeway also produces a line of products marketed in US Hispanic communities, called La Fruta, Drinkable Yogurt (yogurt drinks distinct from kefir). In addition to its line of Kefir products, the company produces a variety of cheese products and recently introduced a line of organic pudding called It's Pudding!. <<<
Market Watch analyst interview (see link at Yahoo). Lifeway is discussed approx half way through the interview. They criticize the company for the share buyback in the face of insider selling, and for lack of earnings guidance for the .03 cent quarter.
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