As an update . After doing more research into NVS's Cosentyx and their P 3 trial a week or so ago .....I sold most of my KZR position ...retaining only 100 shares..
I liked the KZR data but now realize that if the Cosentyx LN trial succeeds ( primary completion Jan 2025 ) , they will file for accelerated approval and dominate the non generic drug portion of this market.
The lesson from this .
Know the competition and don't fall in love with a stock
Well I obviously should have waited until after watching their presentation
Two trials that wont read out to 2025 . The LN trial is large and will compete with other large LN trials being run by NVS for enrolling patients .
Co now trading for cash on hand .
I still believe in their drug but acknowledge that this is a very high risk investment as there is real concern the the LN trial in particular will take longer , cost more and that they'll need more $ .
I added some to lower my cost below $5 .
Very small position that I'll set aside and see if it evaporates :--)
Writing this mainly as a note to myself as no one reads this board
For the record ...not that anyone reads this board anyway
I reduced my position in KZR following their JPM run up boost.
What I liked about their data was that there was no induction period before starting the drug and the data was in refractory patients . The JPM presentation indicated to me at the time that they were slower then I expected progressing into a P 3 trial .
If U want more data suggest U chk their JPM slide deck.
I now actual question if they'll commit to a large P 3 until they see the Secukinumab trial results ( Cosentyx )...trial ends in Jan 2025 I think. There may be an interim readout before hand .
Cosentyx is an already approved drug and NVS ( ? ) appears to be committing a lot of $ to try and get it approved for LN.
So the first full trading day after KZR and AUPH presented at JPM
KZR up 12.4% on double normal vol. Consistent buying with large buys towards close . Up 2.9% after hrs
AUPH up 5.2% on average vol. Large sale mid day . Little after hrs
Risk to KZR is they still have to run a pivotal trial that shows better data than AUPH's pivotal trial .
Risk to AUPH is the much hyped buyout doesn't materialize and the Co slowly burns thru its cash on hand trying to breakeven .
On first glance data looks better then Benlysta or Lupkynis .
Lupkynis is way over priced with a limited market ...Benlysta may be going generic soon ( altho still expected to be expensive )
I covered the other day at $7.75. Just when I saw it over $11+ premarket I knew there would be downside.
Take care W!
Well sell the news … something I usually do but not in this case
Are U still short ?
Nephrologist my wife works with likes the data
Early days etc etc but potential to protect kidneys without or limited steroid use … is what he liked
Boy what timing on buying 2m more shares
Inquiring minds Would like to know what he knew
It was a P 2 trial and there was no mandate to lower steroid use....altho some did anyway .
Remember this was largely a refractory population , there was no induction therapy and eGFR remained stable from baseline to end of trial .
Re drop outs ..this trial was being run during the worst of the Omicron surge . Patients needed to come to the clinic for their weekly sub Q injection .Hospital visits for all procedures were down as patients avoided hospitals if they could.
The P 3 trial ( or trials ) will be in a larger more diverse LN population ...maybe 2 trials ...one with induction therapy the other not and where reducing steroid use will be mandated
Just my take
Congratulations KZR on their phase 1B open label, single arm, 29 week study! But are you sure it wasn't the steroids? 9 mg/day at completion.
Also, what happened to the 4 patients (20% of total population) who dropped out? And who, by the way, were excluded from the data presented.
CEO still under water on his big buy, even after this move
Kezar Life Sciences (KZR)...from TipRanks
We’ll wrap up with a clinical-stage bioscience researcher, Kezar Life Sciences. This company is involved in the fields of oncology and immunology, and is developing new treatments for cancers and autoimmune diseases. The company’s pipeline features first-in-class small molecule drug therapies with activity in protein degradation and protein secretion.
Kezar’s pipeline features two clinical-stage drug candidates, KZR-261 and KZR-616. The first of these has recently advanced from the discover stage and the company has initiated a Phase 1 open-label dose-escalation study. The drug candidate is being studies as a potential treatment for solid tumor cancers.
The real excitement for this company comes from the two Phase 2 trials of KZR-616. This is an autoimmune drug, under investigation as a treatment for Lupus, among other conditions. The company in December released interim results from its MISSION trial of KZR-616, showing that the drug candidate demonstrated clinically meaningful benefits in patients suffering from Lupus nephritis. The patient pool was small, only 5, but 4 patients showed positive results. In addition, the drug continued to show a ‘favorable’ profile for safety and tolerability, extended over 6 months. Top-line data from the MISSION trial expected in 2Q22.
Kezar also has the PRESIDIO trial ongoing, investigating KZR-616 against active dermatomyositis (DM) or polymyositis (PM). The Phase 2 trial is described as a ‘randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, cross-over clinical trial,’ and has enrolled 24 patients. Topline data from PRESIDIO is also expected in the second quarter of this year.
Finally, Kezar has recently announced that it has selected ‘zetomipzomib’ as a brand name for KZR-616.
Kezar also shows a recent ‘million +’ insider trade. Franklin Berger, of the company’s Board, made a purchase worth $1.299 million earlier this week. His buy totaled 80,000 shares, and it brought his stake in Kezar up to an impressive $14.28 million.
This stock has attracted the notice of H.C. Wainwright analyst Raghuram Selvaraju, who points out that the multiple upcoming catalysts are a strong inducement for investors. Selvaraju writes, “In our view, positive data for zetomipzomib from both the MISSION and PRESIDIO trials ought to establish Kezar as a triple-threat across SLE/LN, DM and PM and position the compound for advancement into late-stage clinical development. Depending upon the strength of the data, Kezar might also ultimately be considered an attractive potential acquisition target, in our opinion.”
Compare AUPH to KZR in this sell off .
Theres a lot more downside vol in AUPH then in KZR . A lot of retail in AUPH ..a lot of institutions in KZR .
There is a market for AUPH's drug ...just not as large as U think ...meanwhile that Co will burn thru their cash trying to build script numbers
This is a crap stock
ONLY 2 DRUGS LOSING 60 MILLION A YEAR NO REVENUES INSIDERS ROBBING SHAREHOLDERS BLIND SELL THIS TRASH WARRANTS AT .0001 PER SHARE NOW THEY NEED TO RAISE EVEN MORE MONEY TO BURN AND WHY IN THE HELL DO THEY ONLY HAVE 5 PATIENCES IN A STUDY FOR BLAH
WARRANTS FOR .0001 FOR SHARES YUCK NO REVENUES HUGE LOSSES LOSING OVER 50 MILLION A YEAR BOOK VALUE UNDER 2$ A SHARE AND WILL BE UNDER 1$ SOON AT THE CURRENT BURN RATE STILL NEED TO DO A COMPLETE PHASE 3 STUDY THEY WILL HAVE TO RAISE MORE MONEY TO BURN TO FUND IT AND THESE GUYS DONT CARE TO HAND OUT STOCK LIKE ITS CANDY BASICALLY FOR FREE AS THE LAST STOCK OFFERING CLEARLY SHOWED EVERY SINGLE BUYER IS A BAGHOLDER LOSER TODAY