Jabil Circuits (JBL)

[WTMHouston]

I have been holding with no action in JBL for a while -- I forget how long. I almost pulled the trigger yesterday at $29.50 to sell some of it, but kept waiting to see if it could break out to $30 or above. Today's action looked like it just followed the market, down early, recovering most of it late. If it does not pop through $30 the first couple days of next week, I will lighten the load and wait for it to dip again.

[OldAIMGuy]

Here's how it looks from my account's point of view......



Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

We let some shares go (about 5% of the position) at $27.95 yesterday. We bought those shares for $20.66 (on a LIFO basis) for a 35% gain. Those shares were purchased last August.


Not a bad turn of events for the portf. Wish it happened more often, however.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Mr. T, Is Telesis a customer of JBL's?

I did note the other day that JBL got a favorable review from one of the brokerage analysts. It said that JBL continues to out perform their peers. I can't remember if it gave a 12 month target or not.

I'll look it up....

BTW, there's a business connection between JBL and DIGL as well. JBL has outstanding loans to DIGL and maybe some other connections.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

By TheStreet.Com Staff
12/20/2004 5:05 PM EST

Jabil Circuit (JBL:NYSE - commentary - research) said first-quarter earnings rose 32% from a year ago on a 21% jump in sales, beating estimates, but the company will struggle to do the same in the current period.

Jabil earned $55.9 million, or 27 cents a share, in the three months ended Nov. 30, compared with earnings of $42.5 million, or 20 cents a share, last year. Core earnings jumped 26% from a year ago to $65 million, or 32 cents a share, a penny better than the Thomson First Call earnings consensus.

Revenue rose 21% from a year ago to $1.83 billion, compared with estimates of $1.79 billion. "While the end markets and the economy are just beginning to show signs of improvement, Jabil clearly has the strong trend for electronics companies to outsource in its favor," the company said.

For the second quarter, Jabil expects to earn a core 26 cents to 28 cents a share on revenue of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion. Analysts had been expecting earnings of 27 cents a share on revenue of $1.71 billion.

Jabil fell 47 cents, or 1.8%, to $25.30 after hours.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy,
Jabil's chart looks happier than it has all year.



W%R and Accum/Distr both looking like some sustained buying has been going on.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy, This from Zaks:

All Star Analysts Portfolio Highlights: Chico's, Jabil Circuit, Intel and The Sports Authority

CHICAGO

Zacks.com
Jason Kissinger, 312-630-9880 x 260
[e-mail]
www.Zacks.com

Zacks.com just released its latest additions and deletions to the coveted All Star Analyst portfolio. This exclusive portfolio represents all stocks with a Strong Buy rating from at least five analysts with a 5 Star All Star ranking. These are the brokerage analysts whose stock recommendations proved to be the most profitable for investors. In 2003 this portfolio gained +46.6% nearly doubling the rise of the S&P 500. The members on the exclusive list are: Chico's FAS, Inc. (NYSE:CHS), Jabil Circuit, Inc. (NYSE:JBL), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and The Sports Authority (NYSE:TSA). View the entire list of stocks on the All Star Analyst portfolio at http://at.zacks.com/?id=510

Here is a synopsis of why these stocks are on the All Star Analysts Portfolio:

(snip...)
Jabil Circuit, Inc. (NYSE:JBL) is a worldwide independent provider of electronic manufacturing services. In June, the company posted fiscal third quarter results which represented solid sequential performance as well as strong year-over-year performance in both revenue and core earnings. Jabil's third quarter of fiscal 2004 core earnings increased +39% to $53.1 million, compared to $38.2 million for the same period of fiscal 2003. Core earnings per share increased +37% to 26 cents per diluted share for the period, compared to 19 cents for the same period of fiscal 2003. Net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2004 increased to $40.1 million compared to $4.5 million for the same period of fiscal 2003. GAAP diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2004 were 19 cents compared to 2 cents for the same period of fiscal 2003. The growth will continue as guidance for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2004 indicated that it currently foresees revenue in a range of $1.60 to $1.65 billion and core earnings of 25 cents to 27 cents per diluted share, depending upon levels of production. With growth across the board, it is no wonder several top All Star analysts are recommending JBL. (snip......)

Fat P/Es aren't being treated very kindly these days. However, one of my favorite measures of market activity went "bullish" for the first time in a while this week.

(based on data from Value Line's 1700 stock list)

It will be a lot more convincing if we see the "smoothed" data along with the raw dip into bullish territory. This indicator has been showing much less volatility than usual since last year. I think part of it is the coming election. Nobody's wanting to be betting too heavily right now, hence zilch for Speculation.

Best regards, Tom

[WTMHouston]

Looks like we may have a bit more downside.

[WTMHouston]

Liked it at $24 and change, gotta love it at $22 and change. I dipped a bit more this morning. I don't like averaging down, as a general rule, but buying low is the name of the game.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy, I dipped in a bit, too, with a price of $24.25 last week when the swoon hit. It was an odd bit of news. Guidance wasn't all that bad. Must have been "mood swings" on Wall St.

I'm watching and waiting. Next Sell is back around the $30 mark.

Best regards, Tom

[WTMHouston]

I made a bit on JBL's last dip to ~$25 and got out at $27 and change. Just picked some more up at $24.40ish. It may take a bit longer this time, given the recent guidance, but it should continue to be a profitable position trade.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy, I'm currently set to add to the JBL position at about $25 even.

Is it logical to "wish me luck" with such a GTC order?


Best regards, Tom

[WTMHouston]

JBL has started to look attractive again -- although I would still prefer closer to $25 -- at ~$26ish

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Rick, Sorry I missed your request.

Here's the I-Wave values for the last few weeks:
Suggested Cash Reserve for Individual Stocks
01/05 - 36%
01/12 - 39%
01/19 - 37%
01/26 - 37%



My last JBL sale was at $31.65.


Best regards, Tom

[Rick Storm]

Tom, do you happen to have the IW numbers for 1/12/14 ?thanks,

PS , Hope you are feeling better!

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy, Thanks for the note. I'm feeling a bit queazy also, but heck, I have shares to sell if folks want to pay the price. I'll update the historical graph next week and post it here.

Best regards, Tom
PS: My I-Wave risk indicator is rising, but is still quite moderate.

[WTMHouston]

Hi Tom:

I still watch it but I have not traded it for the same reason you have not bought it: it never dipped enough to make the risk-reward worth it to me. I almost pulled the trigger once, but decided not to (and lost a small gain) -- lack of comfort at these levels is keeping me out of it on the long side. It is a good company, but in my view the stock is well ahead of the fundamentals. Even though I think it is over priced, this market is crazy long right now and bucking that kind of trend is a quick way to lose money as well.

If I had to pick one side as the most rational bet for the next 2-8 weeks, it would be short, not long. Of course, the market is not always rational and I am not certain enough about that bet to wager anything significant on it.

Typing this out, it makes me think that a small investment in some puts @$30 with a couple months to go might make sense. I will have to take a look at that more closely.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy, Have you continued to trade JBL at all?

I've had some productive sales, but it hasn't dipped deeply enough for me to do any buying for a long time.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks TI, Interesting link.

Best regards, Tom

[Trade Ideas]

Technicals can take you only so far sometimes.

Hi Tom,

I do not own any shares as of this post, but the stock seems to be in a upward trend (above its 200 SMA) but very choppy over last few trading sessions.

When stocks behave like this, most technical traders will scalp the stock or avoid it altogether. At these times a fundamental view of the stock can reveal important, predictive information - such as the amounts of insider sales/purchases, EPS growth and the last analysts' meeting.

http://www.trade-ideas.com/StockInfo/JBL/JABIL_CIRCUIT_INC.html

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi TI,
In the Oct. 13 issue of Forbes (page 142) there's a half page article on JBL by Elizabeth MacDonald. She's very concerned with the rapid price rise, insider selling and internal "restructuring" benefits to bottom line right now. Her final statement is:
"Short the stock; Cover at $20"

Now, I'm not of that bend, but I have been selling into strength. The COB sold about 10% of his shares since the beginning of the year. I, on the other hand have unloaded over 28% of my peak holding since January 1st.

So, at least I've been selling in concert with the insiders, even though I didn't know it at the time. I have some nice cash now available to repurchase shares down where she's suggesting a "Cover."

Best regards, Tom

[Trade Ideas]

Let's talk technicals. This info updates constantly during market hours.

Technical analysis for JBL

http://www.trade-ideas.com/StockInfo/JBL/JABIL_CIRCUIT_INC.html

Recent alerts:

http://www.trade-ideas.com/SingleSymbol.php?symbol=JBL&more=1

In Real Time, here are other alerts:

http://www.trade-ideas.com/LiveDemoContainer.html

D

[WTMHouston]

Tom:

I had a couple of very nice short term trades in the $22 - $25 range on the long side, but missed the last dip while out of town. Of course, that proved the be the dip before the breakout past ~$26. Did not want to (and still do not want to) chase it.

As much as I like it, it has gotten ahead of earnings. Frankly, it is overvalued. That said, however, I am not confident enough to short it, but will happily jump back in when it dips back to the sub $25 range.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy, Well, they've been begging me to give up some shares of JBL again recently. Here's what the account looks like in recent times:


Nice to have the cash building up for future buying if/when the price slips back.

Peter Quon on SI posted a note saying there's been lots of insider selling at several of the ECMs. I always like it when they decide to be selling just when I've been doing the same.

Best regards, Tom

[bigbizz]

OT: Does anyone have any info on the China Silian Group(SIC Group)?? I own shares in SEVU and they just signed a deal with them...thanks bizz

[bigbizz]

OT: This may interest you tech guys..go to www.seaview.com

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Troy, For me, now there's some cash on hand for repurchases if the rally fails. That's of comfort as we watch this market climb while earnings are still not exactly exciting.

Best regards, Tom

[WTMHouston]

And it has moved very nicely the past couple days. The real question is whether this is just a momentum move and a retreat will follow or whether this is a breakout to higher levels. The daily chart looked great early today.

[OldAIMGuy]

JBL's finally gotten to the top end of my trade range and tripped a few Sales.


Nice when one of these starts to resurface.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Nice move today in JBL. UP 8% to $18.37 as of 2:30 CST.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Phan, Thanks for the article.

Right now my JBL accounts are in between their usual Buy and Sell points. So, I'm just cooling my heels while the price floats around. In one account we buy next at $14+ and sell next at $21. Big spread, but JBL sometimes floats that much. That's a smaller account giving it a bit fatter Hold Zone.

Best regards, Tom
PS: Great Post Grub on #100!

[EZ2]

Tom -- it's EZ.......

March 04, 2003 11:26

Schaeffer's Option Activity Watch Features GE, JBL, and MO

CINCINNATI, March 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's Schaeffer's Option Activity Watch features General Electric (NYSE: GE), Jabil Circuits (NYSE: JBL), and Altria Group (NYSE: MO). The Option Activity Watch is a report that takes a closer look at three equities appearing in our most unusual option activity report from the previous day. The Option Activity Watch is published on www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. For additional information about this report or to have it delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfo .

(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20020725/SCHAEFFERLOGO )

Schaeffer's Option Activity Watch:

1. Business conglomerate General Electric (NYSE: GE) continues to fall from the good graces of traders as its stock price slips slowly in value. The number of put contracts at the equity's April 25 strike rose from 683 to nearly 6,000 overnight. Yet this usually bearish bet remains overwhelmed by the number of calls in the front three months of options. In fact, a total of more than 109,900 calls have accumulated at the out-of-the-money March 25 and 27.50 strikes. The security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) sits at 0.58, which is lower than 82 percent of those taken over the past 52 weeks. In addition, the stock's short interest can be covered in less than two days at its average daily trading volume. Wall Street is still leaning toward the positive with the firm, as nine of the 15 analysts following GE rate it "buy" or better, according to Zacks. Technically speaking, the shares are facing overhead resistance from their 10-week and 20-week trendlines. The stock has enjoyed only three weekly closes above these moving averages since the end of March 2002. GE is also inching closer to its 52-week low of 21.30.

Click the following link to see the Weekly Chart of GE since March 2002 with 10-week and 20-Wek Moving Averages http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=7210 .

2. Optimism is building toward Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL). Its April 20 call added roughly 2,500 contracts overnight. What's more, calls nearly double puts in the front three months of options with an SOIR of 0.56. This reading is lower than 74 percent of those taken over the past year. Short interest for JBL also plunged 22 percent over the past month to 6.5 million shares. The opinion of brokerage firms is somewhat skeptical, with 11 analysts rating it a "buy" or better, 13 rating it a "hold," and one rating it an extremely rare "strong sell." JBL recently turned higher and is enjoying the support of its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. However, the road ahead isn't all wine and roses. Staunch resistance resides overhead at the 17.50 level. This area is home to peak front-month call open interest with 6,500 contracts. The 17.50 region is also the site of a 50-percent retracement of the equity's decline from January's peak (at 20.49) to February's low (at 14.51). JBL is also being capped by its declining 10-week moving average.

Click the following link to see the Weekly Chart of JBL since January 2003 with 10-Week Moving Average: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=7210 .

3. Call trading was also brisk at Atria Group's (NYSE: MO) April 42.50 call on Monday. This out-of-the-money option added 6,200 contracts to bring its open interest to 8,221. This call activity push to lower the stock's SOIR to its lowest reading of the past year. Furthermore, the number of MO shares sold short dropped nine percent over the past month. To add a little more optimistic sentiment to the mix, the Street remains smitten with the company, as seven of the 11 analysts following MO rate it a "buy" or better. The stock recently bounce off support at the 37 level, but must still overcome options- related resistance at the 40 level. More than 64,500 March calls have accumulated at this strike. In addition, former chart resistance sits at the 42 level. This build-up of optimistic sentiment and heavy technical resistance is a bearish signal from a contrarian point of view.

Click the following link to see the Daily Chart of MO since November 2002: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=7210 .

The best way to take advantage of the timely commentaries from SchaeffersResearch.com is to sign up to receive their e-newsletters - Opening View, Midday Report, Market Recap and Monday Morning Outlook. Click here to have the Schaeffer's commentaries delivered to you free via email every day: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfo .

About Schaeffer's Investment Research ( www.SchaeffersResearch.com )

Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, www.schaeffersresearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: www.schaeffersresearch.com/method .

Contact: Tom Godich of Schaeffer's, [phone], [e-mail] .

SOURCE Schaeffer's Investment Research

/CONTACT: Tom Godich of Schaeffer's, [phone],
[e-mail] /

/Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20020725/SCHAEFFERLOGO

AP Archive: http://photoarchive.ap.org

PRN Photo Desk, [phone] or [phone]/

/Web site: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com /

(GE JBL MO)

[EZ2]

good stuff......reminds me of the old clique'
"make hay while the sun shines" !!!!!!!!

IMO, one of JBL's biggest challenges is fighting
the WAVE......a negative/longlasting one impacting
the sector/broader market(s). BUT......."when the
worm turns" !!!!!!!!!!!! :)

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi EZ, Good article about JBL from the SI board:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18629394

Best regards, Tom

[EZ2]

YAHOO !!! Are you watching anything hot ???

Any thoughts on WBSN ????

ez2

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi EZ, We're closing the gap on the first Sell in quite a while in my portfolios. We'll be shipping about 5% of JBL inventory when the price gets to $22-$23. Cheapest shares purchased were about $17.50 before emptying the cash drawer.

Best regards, Tom

[EZ2]

we're ALIVE !!!!! :)

JBL +0.47 +2.25% 2,448,300 - - 21.37

ez2

[EZ2]

as you know.............

HISTORY tends to repeat itself......eventually !!!! :)



ez2

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi EZ, Well, I don't back down easily!



or for comparison to the NASDAQ Comp.



I ran out of Purchasing Power a bit early this time around. Coulda done betta, but I'm not complaining. Knew it was a Bear, just didn't realize it was a

KODIAK!!!
http://www.kodiak.org/images/bear-e2.jpg

Years ago I started taking "News Holidays" and have never regretted a single one. It usually starts with a shift from daily news to only reading weekly mags. That filters out a lot of the B.S. From there I usually move to something Monthly, again with a significant reduction in "noise." Finally I just quit all together. Even then some "news" leaks into my consciousness just through communication with others!

The rtwreport was great. Thanks for that link.

Best regards, Tom

[EZ2]

WOW....nice post, Tom !! That's what I refer to as:
FACT BASED & COMPREHENSIVE reporting ----- nice job !! :)
===============================================================
interesting article (in the imbedded link)

MUTUALS.com - Insight of the Week
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November 4, 2002 to November 10, 2002 - Volume XIX, Issue 270
________________________________________________________
THE NEWS IS IN, SO NOW WHAT DO I DO?

************************************************************
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************************************************************

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Re-read the quote above. Now, I don't much about Jonar C. Nadar (my brother-in-law, John, emailed me the quote yesterday) but I love the quote and I can tell you that the media is controlling more than 20% of the average American's time. So this quote really hit home for me.

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P.S. 1 - I read a very interesting article for die-hard market fans: Click here to view it: http://www.rtwreport.com/article.asp?newsID=153

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ez2

[OldAIMGuy]

A follower of Jabil over on Silicon Investor has been copying a series of articles on the rough conditions of many of the Electronic Component Mfgs as well as general bear market reporting. Many times the articles are about the failures of other companies and not JBL. So, I thought maybe a bit of positive spin might be in order. Here's my note:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18212964

Best regards, Tom

[EZ2]

JBL news......

http://www.detnews.com/2002/business/0209/22/b02-593529.htm




EZ

[EZ2]

Whew !!!!!!!! :)

Jabil Circuit tops Q4 targets
By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:56 PM ET Sept. 19, 2002


ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (CBS.MW) -- Jabil Circuit, one of the world's largest contract manufacturers of electronic components, reported fiscal fourth-quarter financial results Thursday that were better than analysts expected.


Jabil earned $1.8 million, or 1 cent a share, on revenue of $988 million. During the same quarter last year, net income was $11.2 million, or 6 cents a share, on revenue of $944 million.

Excluding items, Jabil earned $30.3 million, or 15 cents a share.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expected earnings excluding items of 14 cents a share on sales of $939.6 million, on average.

Shares (JBL: news, chart, profile) ended the regular session down 1 percent at $16.67.

According to a statement, company executives said business conditions stabilized during the just completed quarter.

"The long-term trend to outsourcing is still fundamentally sound and the outlook for Jabil is very positive," said CEO Tim Main, adding that he expects "substantial growth" in most of the company's business segments during 2003.

For the first quarter, Jabil expects earnings excluding items between 14 and 16 cents a share on revenue of $1.04 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of 16 cents a share on revenue of $1.04 billion, on average.

Chris Kraeuter is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.
============================================================
Thu 5:05pm JBL [external] Jabil jumps, 3Com slumps following quarterly results - at CBS MarketWatch
Thu 4:56pm JBL [external] Jabil Circuit tops Q4 targets - at CBS MarketWatch
Thu 4:32pm JBL Jabil reports smaller 4th-qtr profit, revenue up - Reuters Company News
Thu 4:31pm JBL Jabil Circuit 4th Quarter Revenue $988 Million - Dow Jones Business News
=============================================================

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi EZ, Sounds like they beat guidance by a bit. Should be helpful in differentiating JBL from the rest of the pack.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi EZ, There's always been a large amount of "Guilt by Association" in this group of stocks. Here's a graph that helps to tell the story:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?cs=SLR&cs=JBL&cs=SANM&cs=FLEX&...

JBL's been hit along with the rest, but it's doing "better" right now because of more solid underpinnings. SLR had some bad news the other day which has caused JBL to drop back. Let's hope that JBL's numbers help its share price and bring back a shinier image.

Best regards, Tom

[EZ2]

FYI !!

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/6/21376.html

[EZ2]

out of the gate !!

Real Time as of 09/17/2002 9:37am
JBL JABIL CIRCUIT INC

Last [Tick] 18.14[ - ]
Change 0.96
% Change 5.59%
Bid 18.14
Ask 18.15
Open 18.25
Volume 152,300

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi EZ, Looks like it's tomorrow.

From the JBL web site:
"2002 Q4 & Fiscal Year End Results
Jabil Circuit will host a conference call
Thursday, September 19, 2002 at 4:30 PM ET
to discuss 2002 Q4 & fiscal year end results.
Live audio webcast will be available."

Best regards, Tom

[EZ2]

Tom -- weren't we supposed to get JBL numbers (after hours) today ??

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JBL&d=t

[EZ2]

sounds good to me.....now, if I only knew what it meant !! :)

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/020916/046374.html