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Saturday, January 17, 2004 5:28:13 PM
I still watch it but I have not traded it for the same reason you have not bought it: it never dipped enough to make the risk-reward worth it to me. I almost pulled the trigger once, but decided not to (and lost a small gain) -- lack of comfort at these levels is keeping me out of it on the long side. It is a good company, but in my view the stock is well ahead of the fundamentals. Even though I think it is over priced, this market is crazy long right now and bucking that kind of trend is a quick way to lose money as well.
If I had to pick one side as the most rational bet for the next 2-8 weeks, it would be short, not long. Of course, the market is not always rational and I am not certain enough about that bet to wager anything significant on it.
Typing this out, it makes me think that a small investment in some puts @$30 with a couple months to go might make sense. I will have to take a look at that more closely.
Troy
Those who shoot from the hip usually end up just shooting themselves.
Plan the grub and grub the plan.
Where is the party tonight? Who is bringng the drinks?
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