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Posted by: Qone0 Date: Thursday, September 24, 2009 10:15:06 AM
In reply to: TREND1 who wrote msg# 41369 Post # of 41374
Trend, check this out. Scroll down about 1/4 page, watch the demonstrations. Very interesting
http://www.techsignal.com/
From the
FOUNDATION FOR THE STUDY OF CYCLES
TREND1,
I think your TREND2 system has more promise than Hurst, particularly if you want to be a more active trader.
I also think it (TREND2) needs a confirmation signal. In other words, the first dip below the bottom of the envelope is a setup for a short, and there needs to be another signal for a trigger. That other signal could come from something else. Or the signal could be multiple-choice. One choice for a trigger could be multiple violations of the envelope in the same direction and in quick succession -- in other words, you got the setup on Thursday and the trigger on Friday or, if you weren't paying attention, you got another trigger today.
While looking at your TREND2 system, I considered using another indicator as the setup and using the violation of the envelope as the trigger. I haven't come to any conclusions.
I've been studying the GMMA method. I'm looking at: A pinch, and cross, of the first (fast) group of moving averages is the setup; and a pinch of the second (slow) group followed by a spread of that group is the trigger. This would be for swing (multi-day) trades. Today is the first day in a long time that it looks like a sell signal may form -- the setup is in place, and the trigger is in formation stage. The trigger could complete tomorrow.
JLS
What you posted is true.
But I have not been able to estimate the Daily Envelope
as seen on the 30 minute chart........so far.
TREND1,
you wrote "Future is unknown. IMHO".
So give it up if that is what you truly believe.
It's not that simple. The future is never 100% known, but it is somewhat [AKA statistically] predictable. Sudden changes seldom happen -- that's useful information. Trends (even nonlinear trends) continue until they don't -- that's useful information. These are natural rules of momentum -- defined in Newton's Laws. Momentum makes the future somewhat predictable. That's not opinion, that's fact.
You can "eyeball" and look for cycles (a nonlinear element in trends), and you can draw linear trend lines; and you can combine all these (nonlinear and linear) inputs and try to predict the future. This is what you are doing now. And you can backtest these methods under different market conditions and come up with statistical performance for the past which should reach, by virtue of momentum, a little ways into the future. And if the odds are in your favor, then you trade it. It is really that simple. But most people do not have the ability to do nonlinear statistical analysis in their head, nor do they have the ability to program it into a computer. But guys like you and me do have that computer-analysis ability. I would have no difficulty (and I suspect you wouldn't either) taking many intervals of historic data and determining a polynomial best-fit equation for that data; and once I have the equation, I can predict the nonlinear future.
So you do a nonlinear [for instance, cubic spline, or other polynomial] interpolation of past data then extrapolate into the future. That's your statistical prediction, which can be backtested, and can be profitable, and can be applied.
*****For my info
(1) HURST1_SYSTEM
BGZ entry = 20.63 9/22/09 10:00 PT NOT DONE
(2) TREND1_SYSTEM
BGZ enrty = 20.59 9/23/09 6:30 PT
This trade not done
Why?
Because 10 DMA and 10 WMA are moving in UP TREND.
I've never read a book about it or got any of the materials I saw people post about on iHub.
I just read what's on iHub and that blog airedale88 had (that we can't post here, I guess -- unless we post all of it... and leave off the links -- i think the rules would allow that?)
I like Fibonacci simple moving averages, and horizonal levels of support and resistance, I post about that a lot. I honestly don't know if moving averages or horizontal levels are even a factor in the Hurst philosophy...
Generic
You wrote
Yes, as I recall, those two frequently debated what they considered to be the "true phasing" which was essentially an argument about whether a bottom was a "cycle straddle" or a beginning/end point -- my terminology may be off here...
basically, the way I understand Hurst is that you find something that is a definite market bottom over the long haul, then apply these cycles of time backwards -- to validate the bottom -- then project these same intervals out, to predict the future (hopefully)...
There is a lot of debate about what a true bottom date is back in the past, because it can have a big impact on future thinking, dates, intervals, etc.
I am no expert, just a passive observer.
**********************************************
Thanks again for the very useful info.
And you are an expert on HURST. IMHO
Yes, as I recall, those two frequenty debated what they considered to be the "true phasing" which was essentially an argument about whether a bottom was a "cycle straddle" or a beginning/end point -- my terminology may be off here...
basically, the way I understand Hurst is that you find something that is a definite market bottom over the long haul, then apply these cycles of time backwards -- to validate the bottom -- then project these same intervals out, to predict the future (hopefully)...
There is a lot of debate about what a true bottom date is back in the past, becuase it can have a big impact on future thinking, dates, intervals, etc.
I am no expert, just a passive observer.
There are people that track moon phases, planets, other stuff... everybody's looking for an edge and a reliable predictor.
All I know is that there's no perfect predictor in stock trading, but it's always a learning experience to figure out what these various systems are about and at least be aware of them in trading.
But I have not done this as long as you have, Larry, I know you have seen and backtested about every system that's aver come over the dam... you have a keen analytical mind, even thought I must personally admit I don't understand everything you post. But I do try.
Generic
I have read all the posts of Mr. Bob Chonski, "Airedale88", on that other place
And I thank you for the info.
Do you know why Bliss posts all those cycles on his chart ?
Bob stated that the 80 week cycle was about 78-80 weeks long
so BOB was willing to estimate.
And BOB also explained how the 80 week cycle some times
did not show up, but BOB used other charts (USA and other countries) to verify 80 week cycle.
As far as what IHUB does or doesn't do....
I am neutral and really do not care....
JLS
"The best place to enter a new long position is when a Major Cycle Low lines up with a Minor Cycle Low. To time the entry, we use a Valid Trend Line across highs. A Valid Trend Line break generates the actual signal. These trend lines have been specially designed to generate the best possible entries"
I have done enough of the above to doubt this too....
WHY?
In trying this many many VTL's happen to me.....
but right now ...still willing to try and try....
JLS
"How did we automate the process? By projecting the envelope into the future through a careful application of regression analysis, we were able to produce a completed envelope at the right edge.
I have my doubts about this "careful application of regression analysis,"
WHY ?
Future is unknown. IMHO
The Q&A Board might be a better place to clarify all this I have never fully understood these rules.
This might help this discussion, maybe #msg-41642323
See the replies.
LOL . . . good one JLS . . .
I have had a bunch of mine deleted as well.
It depends on how blatant the advertisement is.
I have made a large portion of my Blog FREE now ...
so it helps everyone .. not just subscribers.
BUT, it does seem odd that they would delete Ads for third-parties ...
especially when their intention is to help others
and not necessarily profit the poster.
Unless TREND1 runs the Hurst site .. LOL
Good Luck All !!!
JLS
I sent you an email about what IHUB deleted.
TREND1,
you wrote "Warning IHUB may delete your post.(Add for HURST)".
Question: why doesn't iHub delete posts made by people (usually iHub moderators) who reference (advertise) paid services on their own sites? Examples would be blasher and pokersam.
Regarding Hurst and that PDF ... excerpt from PDF ...
"However, since the averages are shifted to the left, there is no indicator value on the right edge of the chart. You have to imagine a projection of the bands to the right, as Hurst did in his book using hand-drawn lines.
How did we automate the process? By projecting the envelope into the future through a careful application of regression analysis, we were able to produce a completed envelope at the right edge.
The best place to enter a new long position is when a Major Cycle Low lines up with a Minor Cycle Low. To time the entry, we use a Valid Trend Line across highs. A Valid Trend Line break generates the actual signal. These trend lines have been specially designed to generate the best possible entries.
All of this work led to the creation of what we believe to be the first Hurst System implementation available to traders. Hurst Cycle Trader does not generate a lot of signals, but those it DOES generate tend to be very accurate."
SPX_DAILY_HURST1_SYSTEM
Just updating ....notice the miss...
Near high ...when estimate was for Low.
.
SPX_30_HURST1_SYSTEM with VTL BREAK
.
Qone0
Warning IHUB may delete your post.(Add for HURST)
IHUB has deleted a few of my HURST posts recently.
"The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst"-- I paid 19.99 on Amazon.com ... http://www.amazon.com/Profit-Magic-Stock-Transaction-Timing/dp/0934380627
QoneO
You wrote "Charts need a valid trend line as the valid trend line break generates the actual trade signal according to the link."
This above is true.
The problem I am having is the "delay" in drawing the envelopes.
This chart shows the three cycles touching the upper envelopes
clearing now, but it is not like that in real time.
see 9/17/2009 on chart below
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41755318
PS: Thanks for the info on the program.
I might buy it just to see how they handle the "delay"
Trend, This link is a ad for hurst cycle software. It has a quick overview of the reasons for the 3 different ENV on your charts. How the different ENV's coming together signals the cycles aligning/nesting.
I thought it might help people following along without the book.
http://www.corporatedoctor.com.au/pages/omnitrader/modules/Hurst.pdf
P.S.
Charts need a valid trend line as the valid trend line break generates the actual trade signal according to the link.
Thanks for your time doing this study.
REAL TIME TEST for SPX_30
Calling for very short term drop.
Let's see what happens.
Will discuss results here later....
.
See note on chart
"For best results, investors should combine cycle theory with chart behavior and comprehensive study of rigorous analyses of technicals, fundamentals, market psychology and market liquidity."
120 year supercycle http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-and-Silver-in-Grand-Supercycle-21297-3-1.html
3 cycles touch on the SPX_30 chart.
Does that mean it is an important TOP ?
Time will tell....
Hey! Maybe some one will buy the book and I'll be able to discuss it .......
*****CH_6_PAGES_112_113
CH_6 Shows 1/2 cycles and what you can do with them.
(1)Like check for true Dominant Channel.
(2)And the most interesting part is to make price projections
into a future date. WOW
(3)My first attempt to project SPX was a total failure do to
the current straight up rally.(g)
(4) Over all the book was well the the $19.99 price on Amazon.com
WHY ?
Because it gave me a new view of price action.
IMHO.
.
On the daily chart there has not been a sell signal because
we have NOT crossed a valid up trend line to the down side on
a closing basis.
So we are in a SELL AREA of the Daily envelope, but so far no
"EDGE BAND" sell page 79
PS There is also a "MID-BAND" sell on page 82, which I will
discuss at a later date.....
Note to the board
(1)Using Esignal I will post charts with a date (you will not see date).
(2) I may update these charts during that day.
(3) At the beginning of each day, I will change the date of the chart (You will not see this).
This will leave a trail of charts until I run out of Esignal memory.
JLS Here is example of REV
See REV 1 on this SPX_30_915 chart
SPX_DAILY HURST lay out to the next weekly low
Let's see how this works out.
Having trouble with updating via StockChart so:
(1)Will delete this HURST SPX 30 minute, daily, weekly , monthly chart in a few days.
(2) Will create a series of charts via Esignal on the HURST
Board only.
(3) These charts will show if the HURST envelopes really works
or not.
(4) So HURST's chart only on the HURST BOARD.....
SPX_DAILY_HURST_PROJECTION
HURST says you have to do these projections(Estimates of future cycles)
WHY?
So you will know when things are going wrong.
.
From SPX DAILY (2nd Chart)
It appears the Up TREND Line is broken to the Down side
(in the red zone where 3 cycles are )
The blue envelope(Cycle) appears ready to turn down.
Please note HURST says trend lines are only valid in these red zones.
page 85 has very nice summary of these 16 items.
HURST1 study(DAILY CHART) shows this peak (RED BOX) is not the final peak. The final peak (RED CIRCLE) is due about OCT 15.
On the other hand the current Daily cycle is 90 days from the Mar 2008 Low and Today is 47 days (2 days past the mid of the cycle) so it may be the TOP.
That's HURST for you.(g)
9/9/09 Started adding H's and L's to 30 minute chart.
Trying to under stand meaning.
That is ...do they tell me about the trend going into the future.
Right now it is UP UP with higher H's
For my info 0/8/09
I just noticed that both the daily and weekly are due for a Low in 9 weeks.
Changed Daily SPX chart to show Low in in place = L12
Also changed Weekly SPX chart to show cycles of about = L21
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The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing by Hurst has arrived.
I will try to study his method
"The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst"-- I paid 19.99 on Amazon.com ... http://www.amazon.com/Profit-Magic-Stock-Transaction-Timing/dp/0934380627
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