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Not directionless. Base building after a run up.
Kinda looks to me like step, step, step, pop, hold so far. Time for the closing 40minutes to speak.
5day 5minute chart
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=ipix&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=4%2F25%2F2017&freq=6&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=3%2C8%2C20&uf=32&lf=268435456&lf2=2&lf3=4&type=4&style=380&size=4&x=25&y=13&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
AA is possible, but only with exceptional results. I don't know if those are coming (yes, I am hoping, but ...). The thing is, decently significant results are enough for me, because I think that IPIX is planning to license brilacidin out (at least for some indications) in order to fund the remaining and future pipeline.
I guess I was not clear enough. I think AA requires exceptional results. I did not say that exceptional results are forthcoming.
Without seeing the trial protocol it is impossible to say if interim analysis was actually included. I wonder why would they need one.
The trial is a smallish and time limited (subject in and out in 16 weeks) - not like some cancer trials where small number of responders may keep the target event count out of reach for years. Also, the trial is not addressing imminently life threatening condition when early detection of futility is not only monetary but ethical question.
But then, IPIX keeps including anticipated interim results in their press releases at least until May 2017. I don't get it. I would like to hear Leo's definition of interim results. Interim results = preliminary analysis (?) of full data set ? Final results come out after dealing with outliers? I Just don't get it. But that is no news around where I am living.
Couple small gaps to fill before news. Nothing to sweat though. 1.40s soon.
Directionless afternoon. 1.05 to 1.08 who will prevail?
A lot has changed since December 2015. The short and distort gang will think twice before attacking again; the 21st Century Cures Act has past; the FDA has a new commissioner who likes to shorten the approval time; the B-OM trial has gone from started to finished.
If the past is any indication of the future, IPIX will succeed in every trial.
Let it rip!!!!!!!!!
Nonsense!!! It's Aspire that's made shareholder wealth possible!!!
All pre-revenue biotech companies have to get funding from somewhere, and IPIX's deal with Aspire has been an excellent choice. Without funding IPIX would not have been able to afford the platform development and clinical trials that make it the company on the threshold of greatness that it is today.
Seriously... Aspire has been great for IPIX!
DOTB!
Someone is losing out on some big cash.
Could be after hours today for data. Look at the LII's coach, thinning all the way to $2.
We know that Leo knows Joe Biden whose son recently died from brain cancer.
Wow - the accelerated approval discussion started - similar to B-ABSSI in Dec 2015
Everyone knows what happened after that - no accelerated approval - no P3 - the product is shelved as of now
I think accelerated approval is more for cancer drugs (K-OC?), but B-OM does impact the way cancer drugs are being used. Why would Leo meet with members of Congress if accelerated approval isn’t possible and approval is at least two years away? Here’s an article from last week.
FDA aims to approve more drugs based on early clinical data
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fda-hearing-testimony/fda-aims-to-approve-more-drugs-based-on-early-clinical-data-idUSKBN1DU2DS
Here’s a recent article on adaptive trial design, which could shorten the time of Phase 3 if needed.
Congress and FDA nominee heap love on ‘adaptive trials’
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/congress-and-fda-nominee-heap-love-adaptive-trials
The placebo rate in Otezla’s Esteem 1&2 runs around 5.5%. Leo has been getting blinded case reports on all trial participants. To the extent the overall PASI 75 rate exceeds 5.5%, Leo would have an idea of P’s efficacy.
After 70% enrolled, Leo expanded trial sites. In the August 28th PR, Dr. B mentions the need for “a safe, EARLY, and sustained control of this...disease.” Why mention “early” if that wasn’t something they were seeing? The PR closes with “likely command significant market value”. If they weren’t seeing a PASI 75 significantly higher than the 5.5% placebo, I don’t believe they would have expand and PR’d as they have.
ok, so its next week....
then the rest of this week is a 'buy the dips' ,if one is a believer.
Where did the party go? Trading comes to an almost halt while Aspire unloads 500 share blocks at the bid...
This is a good observation. Most people that follow The Science are invariably early to bio investments. This is why The Science is only one small piece of the puzzle.
Aspire continues to erode shareholder wealth. That is why I say, short of an all cash buyout, Aspire is always there, ready to sell some of their 30MM shares. its seemingly inexhaustable supply.
Revisit your chart: look at the move in March and then what happened. I hope history doesn't repeat but the pattern is looking very similar. IPIX battled in the 1 -1.1 area for days but finally gave up. Probably due to false news etc.
I hope I am wrong
Small blocks dumped. My guess it's our friend Aspire...
I don't think it's a brick wall at 1.07
but it might be a pepper patch.
its a key target station,that much is clear.
But lets compare apples and oranges. Is there more reason now to expect a true rally, to hold strong now, instead of the repeated collapse we got last 3 times? something for the science and business fundies to answer.
But the chart has surpassed the 1.08 resistance in this rally and that does mean something. even if it only means the next major pullback holds this time in the 80's instead of falling to the 70's and 60's.
It really is all about the news isn't it.
IF we don't see the news soon, it might get sold down again to touch the high 80's. or do you think ....high 60's ?
I'm looking at any honest retrace to hold around 90 or high 80's this time. unless it blasts up again tomorrow, then it looks like 1 dollar might be the new base for a new cycle.
Will you be joining us in the New Cycle? above 1 dollar?
I always liked Patrick's analysis.
That's where I first discovered CTIX about 6 years ago.
The problem with PC's picks, is that they were super Early...and most of then collapsed horribly. like ISCO for example. That was his favourite.
But that has no bearing on what IPIX is doing. we likely have a big winner here.
mid day- pausing today...
what do you make of this pause so far today, no surging today. no plunging either. let me guess....no News today.
maybe tomorrow?
Sure. Actually, highly unlikely offers come without several key partnerships:)
Yep, but first a partnership, then uplist, that's when the big institutional investors come in and take the stock way up. Good times ahead.
Looks to be forming a new base at these levels
I expect IPIX will be gobbled up by a big pharma in a 2-5 year timeframe. Offers may come sooner, but a value call based on prospects and majority shareholders tastes will dictate.
Partially filled some 1.07s and waiting patiently for the rest...
I think we’re talking extragalactic potential.
Your imaginary brick wall is getting higher and higher each day, so is the stock price which closed green for the past five days straight (up ~50%). Time for a new strategy?
No argument here. I don't do charts so most of what you said went straight over my head. My method is fairly simple. If I like what I see I buy and or hold. If I don't, I'll sell. Timeline isn't super important for me, as long as progress is apparent and predictable.
I am a small fish though.
BioHedge, it’s always good to see you posting again. Actually it’s not unrealistic for me to see 7 out of every 9 patients in the B arm don’t have severe OM and the % ends up with over 70%. Even if B-OM is 50% effective in the remaining patients in the B arm, you are looking at ~58% severe OM prevention.
Due to its very low systemic absorption of < 10 ng/mL, B-OM’s concentration can be tweaked from 3 mg/mL to further increase its efficacy without safety concerns. Either way, we have a very good home run hitter (Stanton?) in our lineup.
we know the DSMB did not conclude the data was futile.
HOLD GREEN!!!!
Data any NANOSECOND.
Bio you can't be serious. 5-10 more years? IPIX will not be around as IPIX. BP will have eaten them up way before than. Humira will also be history. New drugs (ours) will render them useless..
as an MD as an MD....sigh
as a follower of IP i am just trying to understand why the announced and expected interim data were NOT released
as a CEO, did Leo understand waxing and waning when he said they would release interim data?
ask him not me
what is his explanation, by the way? we have not heard a word on the subject
Why do you pick this exact time to rebeat the horse to death. Do you have a financial interest in Otezla perhaps? Did you dump your shares and now you have to pay good $ to get them back. Supposedly you are a Dr, I don't believe you have the time to be a flipper, but Juan never knows.
As an MD, you're likely aware that psoriasis waxes and wanes. Without unblinded data there is no way for the company to know which results are from drug or placebo.
With oral mucositis it's probably easy to get a feel for trial results since I don't expect placebo to prevent it very often, if ever.
In Reply to 'To infinity and beyond!'
as we have discussed prev, ad nauseum: I accept that scientifically minded posters somehow prevailed upon Leo to drop the interim release. This was suggested, in a subtle but clear series of posts. I still wonder if results were good he would have ignored them
Fair point on the P comparison. That said, I like people to understand that the human body is exquisitely complicated and the data from an n of 10 rarely holds when the n increases significantly.
I think we have the potential of strong results in both P and B-OM, I'm just not banking on either being out of the park home-runs. The company is too young to know exactly how and what conditions are best addresses and via what delivery means. Give the company five to ten more years of experience and I think IPIX is running dozens of trials to nail down those issues. That's when we might see B achieving Humira type results, across multiple conditions (if B really is as good as it appears to be).
As for P, I'd be okay with 20% PASI 75 on P and over the moon with anything north of 30% PASI 75. I even think a 15% PASI 75 could be of real value. This is an oral product with a proven, safe track record.
If B-OM is half as effective as what it showed earlier, it's a huge drug. I just don't want to have unrealistic expectations because in the end, if it works to any degree, the stock price will be significantly higher than it is now and my incredibly over-sized position will be back to green!
BIOTECH - On K, is this possibilities? Nice to see it one day on K.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/luketimmerman/2016/05/31/celator-gets-bought-seeing-stock-rocket-from-1-68-to-30-25-in-two-months/#6f4922b2421f
Eventually we should get well past the moon. It's possible to go all the way to the seventh planet from the sun, but hesitate to write it out for obvious reasons. No failures so far with this pipeline is an incredible feat to my thinking.
Let me read the tee leaves in what I see to Leo and IPIX : as a Intelligent CEO ,Leo will not or be out if his mind to sell here into Aspire when huge potential awaits trial outcomes and will not be needed....next,probably has been told by trial investigators and big bio-pharma that set up Prurisol to keep a tight lid on it completely or chance loosing both options....next,Leo playing out PR Release roll to benefit all included whole maintaining buying pressure to share price but in what order???....and maybe just maybe a partnership has already been formulated and ready to be signed to privileged insider data to BRICILIAN....$$$$$....imho tryz
So invest in any company with bullish PR’s?
IPIX
I will buy 15k more at 1.02.
News ANY SECOND!!!
Oral mucositis (OM) doesn't wax and wane like psoriasis does. I don't expect placebo effect to have much play in the Brilacidin ph2 OM trial.
I do agree with the concept of tempering ones' expectations in biotech investing. One never really knows what will show up in trial results. But, I'm expecting this trial to come up with good results.
In Reply to 'BioHedge'
If we see the same results as the interim, it would be an absolute moon shot result. And in my opinion, there is almost no way the numbers hold, to those levels, in a larger data set. I've always learned to temper my expectations in life and even more so in bio-tech investing. But, the great thing with B-OM is that there is no current effective treatment (bad for patients good for IPIX's new offering).
Overcoming the placebo effect is hard (look at the silence around Prurisol - had the numbers been coming in crazy good, we'd have heard rumblings). Take Otezla, there was a lot of board chatter that talked about how narrowly Otezla beat the placebo (like 10-15% or so if I remember correctly) but look at the revenues it's generated. I think the same can happen for B-OM.
We don't need to hit a grand-slam for this to be worth significant $$$. We just need it to work in a statistically meaningful way. As long as we get a decent spread from the placebo arm, we're golden.
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Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IPIX)
$IPIX NEWS - http://ipharminc.com/press-release
SEC Filings https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Innovation+Pharmaceutical&owner=exclude&action=getcompany
From the most recent 10-K:
There are doubts about our ability to continue as a going concern.
We have generated revenue of $0 and $18,000 for the fiscal years ended June 30, 2023 and 2022, respectively and have an accumulated deficit of $125.3 million through June 30, 2023. These factors raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.
We need to raise substantial additional capital in the future to fund our operations and we may be unable to raise such funds when needed and on acceptable terms, which could prevent us from fully implementing our business, operating and development plans.
We currently have an approximate $1.0 million cash balance as of the date of this filing, but that is insufficient to complete the development and commercialization of any of our proposed products. We expect to incur costs of approximately $1.8 million in the upcoming fiscal year ending June 30, 2024 to operate our business in accordance with our business plans and budgets.
We have limited experience in drug and formulation development, the conduct of clinical trials, and may not be able to successfully develop any drugs.
Development of pharmaceutical products is a risky and time-consuming process subject to a number of factors, many of which are outside of our control. We are subject to regulatory authority permissions and approvals, most importantly the FDA. Our drug candidate(s)/indications are at early and mid-stages of development. Consequently, we can provide no assurance of the successful and timely development of new drugs, and the failure to do so could cause us to cease operations.
We may elect to deregister our common stock under the Exchange Act and suspend our reporting obligations. Such deregistration and suspension would result in less disclosure about us and may negatively affect the liquidity and trading prices of our common stock.
http://www.ipharminc.com/
About Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc.:
Established in 2007, and headquartered in Wakefield, Massachusetts, Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc. (formerly Cellceutix Corporation) is a publicly traded biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative medical therapies with dermatology, oncology, anti-inflammatory and antibiotic applications.
Through ongoing research and drug development efforts, Innovation is focused on improving the clinical care of patients, as well as growing shareholder value. Our team consists of a diverse and accomplished group of professionals working together toward achieving this common goal.
IPIX CEO - "The Company historically devoted most of its efforts and resources on business development, regulatory matters, and clinical trials. Presently, the Company does not have sufficient financial resources to advance our drug candidates meaningfully." "In general, we expect to concentrate on product development and engage in a limited way in product discovery, avoiding the significant investment of time and financial resources that is generally required for a promising compound to be identified and brought into clinical trials." Source - https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1355250/000147793223003414/ipix_10q.htm
More information is available at http://www.ipharminc.com.
Management: http://www.ipharminc.com/senior-management/
Scientific Advisors: http://www.ipharminc.com/scientific-advisors/
Clinical Trials: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=%22Innovation+Pharmaceuticals%2C+Inc.%22++&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=&Search=Search&flds=abcefgps
Trials under previous name: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=cellceutix&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=&Search=Search&flds=abcefgps
Product Pipeline: http://www.ipharminc.com/therapeutic-areas/
Recent News and Press Releases:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IPIX?p=IPIX
http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/
SEC Filings (CIK:0001355250): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Innovation+Pharmaceutical&owner=exclude&action=getcompany
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Share Structure: See SEC filing link above for current share structure
Investor Relations:
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