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Sunday, 09/29/2024 9:30:19 AM

Sunday, September 29, 2024 9:30:19 AM

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26681 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market has been rising for 10 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27087 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 24038. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 25704.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26510 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27087 to 26386. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27087. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 26839 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 25445 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 21 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.



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