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It's always somewhat enlightening to hear Keith talk. Most refreshing in contrast to Dan's laughing.
He said some things he's said before, but I thought from what he said in this interview it was clear he sees the corner has been turned. in terms of a higher gold/silver price with investors returning to the sector. This interview was done after Easter weekend.
It really is surprising that a big Player such as Barrick hasn't come calling already. Maybe any potential suitor wants to be sure the permitting is finalized and the situation with the FN folks gets resolved correctly. We certainly seem to be sitting in a very good place as it stands. I was kind of disappointed that he only saw FMG as a five bagger from here. I conservatively see us as at least a 10 or 15 bagger.
He also mentioned the Pierre Lassonde/Frank Giustra interview I posted the other day.
I thought Ron asked some decent questions and I guess he's earning his keep.
You make some very valid points. I'm never convinced of any of the numbers the government feeds us are true or accurate. The only thing I'm sure of is that they want everyone to believe the crap they're dishing out.
The debt bubble is coming home to roost to your point and maybe the only thing they can do to take people's minds off of it is to create the severe recession/depression you spoke of. IMO that's very plausible.
That would come in the form of most likely a global bust of some sort. Maybe another bank implosion. Hell, it could be just about anything. There are a lot of potential Black Swans flying around.
P.S.: I saw Stephanie Pomboy on Charles Payne's show today and she was talking about how gold is front-running what's coming with the debt bubble and what that portends for the dollar down the road.
Stephanie and Peter Schiff are two peas in a pod. Both are uber bullish gold.
Interesting......so the manufacturing numbers are strong, eh? Just like the jobs numbers, inflation numbers (supposedly going lower), etc. Are the manufacturing numbers really going higher or is this just another con job? You gotta wonder. Particularly with people ignoring the big EV push in the auto sector and most people not having enough money to get buy in any type of financial emergency. I guess if government purchasing is strong enough that could temporarily boost the numbers, but even if that were true how long will it last with the debt increasing 1 trillion dollars every 4 months and the interest on the debt increasing 100 billion every four months. Soon that will shrink to 3 months.
If they cut loose with the money printing maybe they can kick it to next year. Whether they are successful or not, don't you think we are heading toward an extended severe recession or depression?
Seablue, I ran across this article saying that JPM is calling for possibly any recession waiting to happen in 2025. The Pundits cite that better growth should carry the day going forward. I didn't see any mention of the presidential election cycle in the article. I also didn't see any mention of higher inflation and Black Swan events going forward either.
https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-recession-outlook-downturn-fears-pushed-2025-after-ism-data-2024-4
Yes, dude is buying 250k every month or so like clockwork.
I see Keith added more shares on Tuesday.
https://www.insidertracking.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=FF*CA+%7C%7C+First+Mining+Gold
If You watched the video interview with the chart technician I posted yesterday, he made the valid points about what we saw in the past with how gold reacted to the market drop in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis.
The gold price fell 34% from its high when the markets tanked, but that set up the huge parabolic move higher in gold AFTER the correction. The move in gold was basically straight up from that low. A parabolic move that I expect to be repeated in this cycle.
I believe whatever the reason for the coming crash/downturn will be deflationary in nature causing liquidity issues, which in turn will have the Banksters opening the fiat money spigots AGAIN. That's their only option. That should be the perfect storm for the gold price and soon afterwards, the miners.
IMO how deeply the gold price falls will depend on the specific circumstances surrounding the crash or possible geopolitical events that appear on the horizon. I'll be fully invested in my mining shares at what I deem the bottom for the gold price and mining shares.
I would definitely agree that tech and the severely overvalued areas of the stock market will suffer the most. A lot of the money coming out of those grossly overvalued sectors of the market will be the catalyst for the move higher in the mining sector.
Yup, ultimately we are playing a guessing game here. I just base my observations on my experience in this sector. I agree that we will need a correction soon in the gold price, will be interesting to see how the miners react to it now that we have seen the price rise this much in a short while. My thinking is that the overall negative sentiment in the miners could not have been worse than what we have experienced in the Q1 2024 which is why I believe the bottom is now in. A stock market crash is a different thing because then we are usually talking about liquidity drying up temporarily which affects almost every single asset class. I think there is a strong possibility that the tech sector & AI sector will crash the most but that it will probably not drag the entire market with it. These tech stocks are such a large component of the indices right now it will make it look like the entire market is crashing but really it will be mostly the "FANG" type stocks. This is what happened back when the Nasdaq bubble collapsed as well. In the background, the gold miners kept rising and nobody was talking about it until they were up many fold. Let's see what happens, but a correction in the gold price I think is imminent either way. My guess would be we correct to around 2100-2200 (might even correct more in a liquidity crisis) at some point and that will again scare weak hands away. It is possible this will coincide with the tech stocks crashing and then if the Fed finally pivots completely then you will see a absolute explosion in the price of gold.
Everyone has their own opinion about how it may play out. Gold may move higher in the short term, but when the recession story unfolds and negativity in the markets set in we're going to see ALL risk assets sell off. That will include gold and silver.
IMO what's driving the PM market currently is a rising commodities sector, NOT people rushing to the safety of holding gold or silver. Look at where oil is now.
Recessionary fears or a market crash for whatever reason will flip that narrative very quickly and this current rally will sink. It's not out of the realm of possibility the Fed could be forced to raise rates again because of higher inflation. They don't want to do that, but the data is saying inflation is not dropping here. That would certainly freak the market out.
When this market rally ends is anyone's guess, but it will come. I personally don't see a real break-out move coming in FMG shares until after we see a steep correction come in gold. That will also be after the stock market makes a very big correction. JMO
P.S.: If our shares have bottomed, I'm fine with that, but I'm still keeping my powder dry to see where
this impending correction takes the miners.
Yeah for sure prices have been rising nicely, but I mean a REAL major breakout is starting here, I'm talking about prices going to 3-5k/oz in the next few years or so. I think we will get some kind of correction soon simply because nothing goes up in a straight line, but I am still amazed how strong gold's rise has been even with interest rates still quite high. I have been following the trading volumes very closely for the last months on miners and something definitely has changed now in the last few weeks. We are finally seeing capital coming back into the sector but it is still very early days here. First Mining has definitely now bottomed, I am confident about that. Only maybe a massive stock market crash which would temporarily freeze all liquidity could make a new bottom, but I am very skeptical of this. The "AI stocks" and other overvalued tech stocks are for sure going to crash at some point but I dont think that will affect miners that much. Back when the Nasdaq Bubble collapsed in the early 2000's that actually did not affect miners at all, they were still rising back then. I see something similar happening here again. I think we can move very quickly here to the 30-50 cent range in the next months or so if we continue this positive momentum and more capital keeps coming in. If we get more good news here regarding Springpole's permits/agreements or plans to start Duparquet as a starter pit then I think we could be moving very quickly to 0.5-1 CAD range. Juniors/developers usually move very fast to the upside once the sentiment changes and people will be literally rushing in and buying every stock with the word "gold" in it. I have seen this so many times already.
Interesting article speaking to higher inflation expectations and why that's fueling higher commodity prices FOR THE TIME BEING.
The problem with a perceived increase in commodity prices is that means the Fed can't start cutting rates, like the Street expects them to do. Higher inflation means no rate cuts and that will be a very big problem for the Banksters. They need to cut rates to bring down the interest payments being made on all that debt we have. That can't go on indefinitely.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-oil-gold-and-the-dollar-are-all-surging-and-why-that-could-cloud-the-feds-rate-cut-outlook-3105de14?mod=home-page
Are about to break out? I would say they've already broken out in a big way.
Having said that gold and silver along with the mining shares WON'T go straight up from here. I see the current move higher as part of an overall blow-off top in the market. I won't claim to know how high or long it will last. but I will offer some views from a chart technician bullish on the PM market going forward, but even he sees a major correction coming in PM prices BEFORE the actual big move comes later on. Will he be right? Who knows, but what I like about what he bases his predictions on are PAST moves in the market and past moves in the metals. He talks about it in this recent interview.
Chris predicts a near-term top of $2670 in gold before a turn lower happens. He believes the lower move in gold would most likely coincide with a fall in the stock market, as ALL assets, including gold, silver, and the miners will be hit in the initial selling. I think he's right in that assumption.
Seems to me both gold & silver are about to break out big time here. I was expecting a major correction in gold already for a few weeks but it keeps rising. Maybe the paper mechanism is somewhat breaking? First Mining is now breaking out from its long term trend back all the way from 2016 on good volume as well. I think the turn has come, but I still expect a correction in the gold price in the coming weeks or so. Looking very exciting now and if we can get good momentum going and get capital back into the sector then there is no telling where this stock will go when they release more good news regarding Duparquet + Springpole. Hold steady guys, the moment us long term investors have been waiting for is getting closer and closer.
Good article on a silver price breakout.
https://www.investing.com/analysis/silver-could-be-heading-to-50--watch-these-levels-for-clues-200647248
Who knows how long it will last, but for the last two days we've seen gold and silver pop with the stock market and Bitcoin tanking. GDX and GDXJ up small as I post. Gold is $2275 as I post, so we've had a nice move in the gold price in the last few weeks.
This may IMO just be a small correction coming before a move higher in the stock market. I heard Kyle Bass on Fox biz this morning say the Powers That Be will do everything they can to keep the market UP prior to the election. That means looser monetary policy (rate cuts) and continued fiscal spending from the government.
I thought Frank Giustra made a very good point in the interview I posted yesterday. He said we're not going to see a big push into the gold miners UNTIL the gold price reaches a level that investors know it will stay at. IMO that may be a sustainable price north of $2500. Time will tell on that.
Alaska, thanks for the information. EOM
I would like to know specifically why they let Big Ridge off the hook for the $4M? Yeah, Big Ridge has some big buyers coming in for them, where are the FMG big buyers? Apparently still on the fence.
There's still no company news out on this deal. Why the hold up?
I spoke to Paul today. He stated to me that the reason why we sold big ridge shares as to prevent more delusion of our shares and that the 4.2 million that we decided not pursue. We would benefit on selling the 30 Plus million shares Big ridge because they had some big buyers coming in and that it would be difficult to sell in the open market where the stock was trading at Paul stated that big ridge shares would help us get through spring pole. He also said that the shares have had some pressure on them because of a fund he felt was probably selling hopefully they are done we also stated that we still have 20% steak in big ridge. I personally think we're getting ready for liftoff
I had to post this interview with two of the mining giants of the Canadian mining industry, Pierre Lassonde and Frank Giustra.
These Men are super smart about what's going on and have been around a very long time. This interview touches on a lot of what's going on SPECIFICALLY in the Canadian mining space. IMO a must watch.
They think there needs to be a lot of changes for the mining sector to get it's mojo back there.
I actually was One of those believers that thought we could see the stock market rally into the election. Traditionally that happens in an election year set-up.
I thought it was really bold of Vermeulen to make the call he made, I assume, simply from a contrarian point of view. A big market sell off happening when everyone thinks it SHOULD be going higher into the election. The Market is good about screwing people that way. I hope it happens, maybe that keeps Biden from being reelected.
What could cause that to happen? Well, no one can say for sure, but there are any number of things that could send the market lower in the next 8 months.
My guess is the Fed, along with the Global Elites want to see Dementia Joe back in for another term, so they'll be doing their best to keep the markets afloat or moving even higher from here.
As far as capital gains taxes go, all I know is the Dems increased the CG taxes because they require more money to fund this out-of-control government we have. I'm not even sure if that's been implemented yet or not. I do know it will be moving money out of the investor's pockets and into the government's hands.
You're exactly right. These Big Shot Wall St. Players are front-running the coming market downturn, plain and simple. Of course, they also have ego's as big as their bank accounts, so they also want to be able to say they got it right too.
It still makes me wonder that Jamie Dimon would ever say anything at all about these issues, as he's so close to ALL the Crooks running the financial system.
Just listened to Vermuelen video section you pointed out. I am curious to see if his feeling play out. He seemed very positive on gold and the movement of gold over the last few days proved him right.
One thing that concerns me a lot which not many have talked about are changes to the capital gains tax rates that have been put forward in the last year or two. If Congress passed them that could cause a market selloff. Also, if the current clown somehow manages to get back into office that could cause one also.
Have you heard anything about internal revenue code changes lately?
Reading Fink saying that to me means that his company is now positioned to take advantage of the market selloff and recession/depression that are coming. Reading what he said reminds me of reading what Greenspan used to say. Oh, such and such is now a concern/problem, when they knew it was a problem years ago but their companies and/or friends benefitted on the ride up and will now benefit on the ride down. Wash, rinse, repeat.
I have not checked the DXY lately and did so a few minutes ago - around 104.
Another Wall Street Bigshot talking about the U.S. debt bubble, joining the long list of other bigshots saying the same. When the SHTF moment arrives it's not going to be pretty. As usual the poor and disenfranchised will suffer the most. Very few of the politicians that are creating the problem even want to talk about it.
Of course, when the changes have to come everyone will act surprised.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/larry-fink-joins-jamie-dimon-115249796.html
Thanks for posting that short video. Without knowing the specific details of what Peter Grandich is speaking to it would seems that FMG has waived over $4M in money that Big Ridge was to pay us. FMG is also selling some Big Ridge shares with Big Ridge now holding 80% of the mine. I see that Big Ridge shares did very well on this news. Big Ridge is trading now at .105 CAD and we're .12
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BIG-RIDGE-GOLD-CORP-49479022/
I checked the FMG website for any news regarding this event and there was no news posted.
P.S.: I found a link to the PR about this transaction. I see the PR is dated April 21, that's been over a week ago now. Guess our people have been too busy to post this news.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BIG-RIDGE-GOLD-CORP-49479022/news/Big-Ridge-Gold-Corp-Announces-Amendment-to-Hope-Brook-Earn-In-Agreement-46322815/
Apparently we're not the only people curious about if the market can continue to rally till the election. So, are others, if you don't have time to listen to the whole discussion, go to about 23.30 in the video and Chris Vermeulen talks about it. He doesn't seem to believe that's a big factor in what the markets will do.
In fact, being the contrarian, he seems to be he thinks the market may sell off prior to the election to fool everyone. It certainly could happen.
It will be interesting to see if the economy can stay afloat until the election. My guess is that it probably will because the Fed and Dems are still pumping a lot of money into the System to keep it propped up. The article I posted earlier today talked about it.
IMO the Global Elites want Dementia Joe back in for another term, if he can make it till November. China wants Biden back in, as do all our enemies and those looking to bring America down. Can you imagine what this country will look like with another four years of open borders? The dollar won't have to collapse for all Hell to break loose. I would be surprised now if China invaded China PRIOR to seeing the outcome of the U.S. election. Trump is leading Biden in the polls currently, but not by a big margin. If Biden has no major health issues between now and the election IMO it will be a fairly close race. Donald Trump is NOT that popular. He has his base, but there are still a lot of people on the fence with him. I think that was his big problem in 2020.
My personal thought was that the Dems would run someone like Michelle Obama against Trump, but I don't see that happening now. Biden will be their candidate if he doesn't go totally crazy between now and November. I saw on the news today that former Presidents Clinton and Obama are going to help Biden campaign and try to get some momentum going for him. God knows he's too frail and dementia-ridden to carry on a full blown campaign himself, he needs help as usual. Very sad.
This is exactly why when the world sees what's going on now in this country, they're making OTHER plans.
I am really curious to see if they can keep the economy floating until the election. I still have doubts China Joe will make it out of the convention as the nominee. They could let the economy tank and blame it on Joe. Of course a wildcard event could derail the market.....WW III, the next plandemic, massive bank contagion and several others. Or perhaps we become Venezuela.....have the world's best performing market for a year or two as the currency is printed into oblivion.
So my understanding is the dem convention is going to be in Chicago. The Chicago area has a large Palestinian population. I wonder if we'll see protests and arrests if Netanyahoo does not have his war wrapped up by then? Chicago, like New York, has been giving the illegal aliens a lot of things ordinary citizen folks do not recieve. We might see some protests related to that as well.
Enjoyed the analysis and article. Per a point brought up by Implanting, have you heard any rumblings about Canada starting to build gold reserves back up? Have any MPs been discussing that? Just curious...
You're right, between what the Banksters control and how the politician's narrative attempts to create the laws and socialist policies that we currently see moving forward.
That's exactly why the Banksters want and will try to land Biden back in office. Trump claims to be anti-CBDC, so we know right there the Banksters are anti-Trump.
We know this current regime want more governmental power and control. That's the unspoken goals that are seldomly talked about.
I don't wish misfortune on anyone in particular, but I'm hoping we see the bottom fall out of this economy BEFORE the November elections. Why, would I want that? Because IMO that should help get Biden out of office, that's the only reason I have, but sadly I'm doubtful for it to happen.
They just need to return all of the Fed's authority over monetary policy to Treasury. The rank politics on display in that history summary shows the Fed is nothing more than a political organization. Meanwhile, the average person is getting hosed by inflation the government won't acknowledge because they have removed some of the key metrics from the CPI.
Saw this article citing the Bank of Canada making some recent observations about increased productivity to quell future inflation. The article goes on to state issues like increasing jobs, machinery, equipment, and intellectual property are part of the fix. Sounds to me like they need to build more mines up there.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/bank-canada-sounds-alarm-low-productivity-cites-inflation-risks-2024-03-26/
Thanks for that detailed answer. The depth of your answer would lead me to believe that you may live in Ontario or at least in Canada. You seem to have a very good grasp of the political situation there.
I would in large part agree with your reasoning on the political situation. Canada needs Trudeau out of office, in much the same way Biden in this country needs to go. Without getting too political, I think we can agree their policies aren't as capitalist or mining friendly as we need to see. If Trudeau leaves and a more pro-capitalist candidate wins that would be the best outcome for our investment. Your points about enhancing the mining industry to bring MORE business there is spot on, but getting back to our discussion on the government being broke is the area that concerns me.
I think we can agree that it doesn't matter which political regime is in power if the government is insolvent. How long they can remain insolvent is the bigger question to be answered. To this point, the U.S. can print unlimited amounts of fiat dollars to prop up their House of Cards. Canada doesn't have that luxury. It's also my understanding that Canada holds NO gold reserves either, so my real concern is that if the Canadian government had some sort of "insolvency hurdles." to jump in the not-too-distant future, how would they resolve those? Would mine nationalization be an option? I don't know, but I'm old enough to know that anything's possible if the situation gets bad enough or if the Politicians have no other way out.
P.S.: Have you had any discussions on this subject with FMG management?
Nationalization is of course a huge threat and that would pretty much be the end for the Canadian mining industry as it is now. But how realistic is this really?
Looking at the approval ratings, Trudeau is basically at an all time low right now. You can see on his Twitter feed that a lot of average people are really pissed off at his government's liberal policies and seem to hate him. A lot of people really don't like the direction he has put Canada on, so my suspicion is that there will be a change of leadership here in 2025. Pierre Poilievre is the likely candidate to take over and my thinking is that he will have lots of support both from industry and just average people wanting to see a more right leaning and business friendly direction. I really do hope his party receives a massive win in the elections.
Ford's government while having received lots of criticism from leftists is actually quite well liked when you look at the polls in Ontario. I still think they are the favorite to win the 2026 elections. A majority of people still support him and his policies, it's just the left leaning media that tries to tell you otherwise. You can also clearly see this trend all over Europe and also in the US with Trump. People are really fed up with leftist liberals and their insane green policies, immigration etc. Right wing parties are rising in popularity every year and this is a trend I see continue all over the Western world.
If you get Pierre Poilievre as PM and Ford continuing his government with also George Pirie as his mining minister, then I think we could be looking at a fantastic situation for the mining industry. Ontario is already really one of the best mining jurisdictions on the planet even with all of the regulation currently in place. Minister Pirie has also enacted the "Build More Mines Act" which already shows you quite clearly what they are trying to achieve here. I see less and better regulation in the future for Canada, it really could not get much worse than what we have now.
So to sum it all up, I really don't think that nationalization is a major risk here if we get this more conservative new leadership into power. That's just so bad for business and not even the most left leaning politicians could really afford to take the risk of ruining the Canadian mining industry from foreign investment. With all of this talk about us needing to shift to renewables and more electrification of our economies there really is no way Canada could afford to miss out on this with its massive mineral reserves.
At the end of the day, politicians lie for votes but they all want the money. Without money you have no government, and the government like you said is pretty much broke. They will need lots of new tax revenue in the years to come and mines are really one of the greatest wealth creators there is. With a new "super commodity cycle" at hand, these undeveloped mining projects are getting more and more valuable. Believe me, in the end the money is what will win here.
Anybody see this article? I've been curious as to why the markets are staying up and elevated even with all the liquidity SUPPOSEDLY being drained out of the economy. Interesting analysis of why that's happening. Trump is already on record for saying he would get rid of Powell if he gets reelected. My guess is the Fed wouldn't want Trump to get back in office.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-03-27/how-fed-juicing-stocks-help-biden-administration
Yes, there's no doubt, the Springpole mine is in no uncertain terms a MUST HAPPEN for all parties concerned. That includes the Canadian Feds, Ontario, FN tribes, like Cat Lake, and of course FMG.
The Ontario gov may be pushing this thing harder than Keith and Dan are. I assume that most of the money that the FN people receive comes from the government and if the gov is broke, that's a big problem for them. They can forget about that road they need.
Let's face it Canada is broke, and IMO what our biggest concerns as shareholders may be once both Springpole and Duparquet are up and operational is nationalization of the mining in Canada a possibility? That discussion has been talked about here many times. My personal opinion is that it would be, especially with the Socialist regime they have running the country there now. It's hard to say how such a move by the government would effect the mining there, but it certainly wouldn't be positive.
TommyJ, you may have an opinion or further insight into that question, so please feel free to delve in with your thoughts.
Just read these couple of articles (referenced in the end) about the fiscal situation in Ontario. They are now projecting a deficit of almost 10 billion dollars in 24-25 and are not expecting things to get better until 26-27. This is quite important for us as FFMG investors to take note of. Why? Because it means the government of Ontario will be in desperate need of more tax revenues in the coming years and will certainly be looking at those projects where the potential is the highest.
If you look at the pre-tax and after tax numbers (2000$ gold) for Springpole and Duparquet you get an idea about what I'm talking about:
Springpole: Pre-tax NPV = $2,361 billion After Tax NPV = $1,599 billion
Duparquet: Pre-tax NPV= $1,15 billion After Tax NPV = $640 million
These rough estimates means total tax revenues for both Springpole and Duparquet will be north of $1 billion dollars easily at current gold prices. Just Springpole alone could generate over a billion dollars in tax revenues if gold prices rose to 2,3-2,5k per ounce which is very probable during the life of the mine. Keep in mind that if we really see a gigantic rise in the price of gold to say 5-10k during the next decade or so then these projects will be absolute cash flow monsters for Ontario. The overall economic benefits from these two projects will be billions of dollars for the entire region.
"The outlook for economic growth has "deteriorated significantly" over the last year, the government says."
"You can either put on the brakes or you can keep going forward, supporting the infrastructure spend, supporting the economy, supporting workers, and that's the way we've chosen."
Think about these statements from the government and what they are thinking in a situation like this when they look at projects like Springpole and Duparquet. Do you really think they will pass an opportunity like this? I don't think so.
This is really the main reason I believe the permit is pretty much already decided for Springpole after all the "boxes have been checked". They will get the permits simply because the political and economic incentive for the government will be too great to pass. Not only the money but the jobs, roads, infrastructure, powerlines etc. is an opportunity that Cat Lake cannot afford to pass either. They know this will get permitted because it will be a cash cow.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-budget-2024-1.7155581
https://www.northernminer.com/subscribe-login/?id=1003865429
I would add this thought to my prior post. We haven't seen an actual fall in interest rates yet and the gold price is already $2200 right now. Most of the pundits I see on the biz news are calling for just 2 or 3 twenty-five basis point rate drops this year, when the SHTF moment comes with this CRE deal and they have to take rates back down in a big hurry, where will that drive the gold price? That could take it right up to $3000 in short order IMO.
We don't know when this CRE crisis might happen, but it's drawing ever closer. That could also be the reason money is moving into gold right now. It's called anticipation.
My guess would be that with interest rates being as low as they were FOR 15 YEARS that this problem will be international in nature. Remember the U.S. still had the highest rates (just above zero) prior to the Fed embarking on the current rate hiking cycle. So, this shouldn't only be a problem for the U.S., it's going to have to hit ALL loans taken at those lower rates that have to be refinanced at the much higher rates that are in place now. That ain't gonna happen.
That's going to be a very big problem and we should see some sort of banking contagion come from it. Sure, not all loans will come due at the same time, but maybe it creates a series of rolling defaults, as the loan borrowers won't be able to refinance at the current much higher rates.
Of course, Powell and his minions are playing down this whole scenario. It's only the little banks, not the big banks. LOL The article you posted says otherwise. So, Mr. Powell tell me how you can keep rates higher for longer when these defaults begin? They'll be forced to drop rates like a rock when these loans can't be refinanced. JMHO
P.S. Of course the faster interest rates fall the higher the gold/silver prices will go. LOL
It really lays bare the fraud Powell is perpetrating and as you said will never be acknowledged until the crisis hits. I just hope the banks in Canada don't have the same CRE exposure as it could have an impact on rates and lending across all sectors, not just CRE.
Heck, if FF gets their timing right they could probably buy their own building in Vancouver by the time the dust settles.
Excellent article, thanks for sharing that. It revealed some interesting facts about which of these banks ACTUALLY have exposure to CRE. Powell claimed the bigger banks weren't as exposed as some of smaller banks, which is total BS. The article proved that in spades.
I chuckled at the way the article ended with the Author calling Powell a brazen Liar and in no uncertain terms to get your money out of these banks before they go tits up. LOL. This next round of bank failures will most likely be the BAIL IN variety.
It's the same old story with these people, they try and quell any talk about bank problems or credit issues until the SHTF moment arrives and then they claim never to have seen it coming.
When will anyone ever hold them accountable for their actions? My guess would be not while they're alive and still on this planet.
Good article about CRE. Looks like some bigger banks have hefty exposure too.
https://winepressnews.com/2024/03/25/jerome-powell-caught-lying-fdic-data-reveals-mega-banks-have-large-exposure-to-commercial-real-estate-not-just-regionals/
There's no doubt the Chief understands and is most likely extremely excited at the prospects of not only a mine at Springpole Lake, but also in the district areas around the Springpole mine site. That ensures the money stream coming to the FN tribes and Cat Lake will last for a very long time. This will be generational wealth for them, so they don't want to screw it up. They want to negotiate all they can get out of FMG without killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. No pun intended.
As You say, that will take a collaborative effort from the three parties involved. It will happen because for Cat Lake, it HAS to happen. This deal is their future, plain and simple. So, IMO after they go through with their EA plan, approval from them will be given, because their lives depend on it. Ontario and the Canadian Feds will be easy.
IMO Dan's biggest focus now should be creating a real revenue stream out of Duparquet. Acquire permitting to begin digging into those old tailings areas that still contain enough gold to truck somewhere close to be milled. That might be a good shot in the arm for our share price. If we can raise enough cash out of such an endeavor that could stop or at least slow down our share dilution issues.
There's always been concern here about the Company being taken out by bigger players. The feedback I've gotten from Dan and Paul is that if we were approached as a takeout target that there would enough shares in STRONG HANDS to fend off such an event. That may be true, but the way I see it that may depend on what takeout price is offered. What would the strong hands deem as a fair takeout offer from where we currently are price-wise?
I've stated here on many occasions that our biggest ace-in-the-hole is Keith and First Majestic. Why? Because IMO Keith wouldn't allow FMG to be sold for a song. If we got a low ball bid offer for the Company, my gut tells me we would get a better offer from First Majestic. I also think if we don't get the deal most of us expect for an outside JV partner or a valid buyout offer from a bigger player, then we see some sort of merger or buyout from First Majestic. I definitely see that as happening.
You may have more insight as to how you see what goes on after we get Springpole permitted, but IMO we're going to be in a very good place, especially if we continue to see the gold price march higher. We should at that point be perceived by the Street as being in a position to ask for higher valuations, not just be flying in the wind as we are now.
Agreed.
Basically my own thinking is that the Chief must understand that for Cat Lake to prosper in any meaningful way going forward they must get on board here with Springpole. The government - as far as I know - will not build a road or anything else to Cat Lake unless there is a clear economic reason to do so. That's really the reality here. While I'm very sympathetic towards this community and the issues they have been facing, I sadly think their future looks bleak without Springpole. If the warm winters continue then Cat Lake could be at very serious risk with regards to getting supplies / food / medicines etc. to their already vulnerable community. I would think the Chief is very well aware of this and that is probably one of the main reasons he has been trying to get the government to fund a permanent road. The community has sadly suffered from other social problems as well and I really think this mine could do a world of good for them and provide them with a clear path for future prosperity.
They are doing their own Indigenous Environmental Assessment, but as far as I understand this is really not part of the official process in any way. The government is the one who will make the final decision in the end. But First Mining has been very respectful of this and my understanding is that they really want to include all of the feedback they have received from Cat Lake into the final EA submission. This is the right way to do it. Cat Lake wants to be included in this process and they really should benefit from this as well. I want to see Cat Lake, First Mining and the government all coming together here and working out a solution whereby everyone wins. There is no point for any one actor here to try and force their way over any other. In this sense I understand the Chiefs frustration with the government. Collaboration is the way to go. You need good negotiators here and I fully trust Keith, Dan and Steve to get the job done.
Sure I understand Cat Lake has legit environmental concerns as well with regards to the mining operation itself but there really is nothing there that cannot be solved with engineering and physics. If they can form a good partnership between First Mining and Cat Lake then the sky is the limit. The money that will come from this operation will enable them to solve everything, really. First Mining could use some of the money to help build out the road network and work with the government together on this. They could build new infrastructure and power lines which could benefit Cat Lake. Keep in mind that mining jobs easily pay north of 100k a year in Canada, so I'm really not joking when I'm saying that this mine could quite literally "shower gold" on this community. It could enable them to build new housing, schools, hospitals, water treatment etc. Anything they would like could realistically be built because there would be so much income from this mine.
Money can also solve any and all of the environmental issues they might face. A portion of the money could for example be allocated to local conservation work, wildlife protection, fish habitat restoration, help the community preserve their sacred sites and other traditional ways of life. First Mining has already done detailed plans for some of these things. Like there is nothing that they cannot achieve if they can reach an agreement to cooperate here.
I think we will get answers soon to all of these concerns as I know Dan and Steve are working around the clock to make this happen. I would still like to point out that Duparquet really could be the "ace in the sleeve" here because I think Springpole is taking way too much of investor attention. If they can get Duparquet going and producing cash flow in the next say two years or so then that will be a massive catalyst for this story. I actually think it is very possible that Duparquet will be the first project to form a JV or something similar with a major (or maybe First Majestic?). The path there to near term cash flow is very attractive and while they process the tailings for a few years they can prepare all of the necessary EA work there to get that operation into a major mine. This cash flow could also enable much more flexible funding options to eventually build Springpole and get that going as well.
I always try to envision what Keith himself would like to see happen here. He has been quite vocal I think in his recent interviews about First Mining actually becoming a real miner unless we get taken out before that. Sadly, it does seem likely that this will happen because I think a major will snap these project up in the next 1-4 years or so. Hopefully at least we can squeeze a billion dollars out of these assets if it comes to that. I certainly would like to see the other route here where First Mining forms JVs with a major (or First Majestic?) and starts mining these assets itself. That is the scenario where this stock really could be rising 20-50x over many years. No I'm not kidding. The valuations right now are so out of touch with reality it is not at all difficult to envision the company being worth 3-6B (CAD) in the long run if gold prices rise to 3-5k/ounce.
Exciting times for sure! Best of luck to you all and sit tight!
Thank you for that excellent response to my questions. You actually answered some questions that I didn't ask. Like how much would this road cost to build?
$117 million isn't chicken feed and I'm sure most of that revenue would have to come from the money earned from mining gold AFTER the mine is operational. The Canadian government or FMG doesn't have that money available at this point and Chief Wesley has to know that. This road can happen for them, but the sooner they come to an agreement for the mine to be built, the sooner their road gets built. The Chief has to know that too, this isn't rocket science.
From the article You posted it would appear they have other infrastructure needs and issues also. It talked about an airport that hasn't been built to date and is five years overdue to be built. The best thing that could have happened to Cat Lake is for the Springpole mine to be built, it will change their way of life there for the better. The Chief knows this and IMO is why he wants to stay on good terms with FMG, BECAUSE IN REALITY HE WANTS THIS MINE TO BE BUILT TOO. Cat Lake stands to be a big winner in the grand scheme of things. This all comes down to a big negotiations event, which is nothing new in building mines. Like You mentioned before, I would like to have them bring Steve Lines
in for a webinar after our final EA is submitted this Summer.
I was also wondering about how the Cat Lake EA study, funded by FMG, might affect the overall EA timeline, but from what I can tell their study should be completed in Spring 2025, before the government approvals are given, according to Dan in this last webinar, in the second half of 2025. So that shouldn't be an issue one would think.
IMO the long-suffering shareholders of this Company have been patient and deserve a nice reward at some point, I HOPE we see that in the next couple of years. As I said, I believe in Keith and I think he wants that to happen for us all, but if the overall stock market dumps going forward, then I would expect our share price to suffer too. I'll add more shares on future weakness. I have very little confidence in the Company being able to support our share price in a bad stock market. That's more of a macro problem going forward, but it can definitely effect our share price and we all know the cheaper the share price the more stock dilution has to happen. No one wants to see that.
Thanks man! I will give my opinions on your questions and include an article further below as source. Probably going to be a longer post.
Regarding the "road issue". It is quite clear to me from all the information I have gathered over the years that Cat Lake have been wishing for a permanent road for quite a while and built up quite a bit of frustration with the government. Some quotes from the article referenced in the end shines some more light on this issue:
"Wesley said he has asked Indigenous Services Canada for $93 million to build a 90-kilometre permanent road to Cat Lake First Nation, which he said will cost $117 million overall, according to studies he had conducted for the community. Wesley said he was told by the Ottawa and Ontario governments that no capital exists for the road."
"Wesley said his community wants a permanent road. “They say we need a road for our youth in the future, and we also need that road because we have a land use plan that’s legislated under the Far North Act,” he said, adding these plans involve development in forestry and biomass diversity for the area."
We can probably assume here that any permanent road built to reach Cat Lake is a 100 million+ project for sure. If it is to be built, it needs to be partly funded by government and First Mining Gold. I am quite sure that nothing will happen from the Government's side unless Springpole gets developed into a mine. I would think the Chief is very well aware of this but wants to get some kind of guarantees from the government that a permanent road will actually be built if they get on board. This is where I think both Dan & Steve come very well into play. This really is a potential win / win / win situation if they can get a community agreement in place. Cat Lake must be aware of the fact that in order for their future generations to prosper they need new roads, infrastructure, and jobs into the region. The warm winters make it more and more difficult to get supplies and food to their community because the ice roads are only open for a few weeks each year. This is not sustainable in the long run. A new permanent road is a must for this community's future and I really understand the Chief's frustration about this, but the fact of the matter is that nothing can get built without money. This is where Springpole comes into play. You get that mine up and running, and the amount of wealth it could bring to this community is spectacular. I'm not just talking about new roads, powerlines and jobs but actually getting schools, hospitals, water infrastructure etc. Go look at what First Majestic Silver built in Mexico and you get an idea of how much wealth a single mine can bring to a region. They built entire towns from nothing with poor Mexican kids getting schools and computer equipment, new housing, water pipes, along with all kinds of economic development. This is what Keith said he would like to see also happen in Northern Ontario and this is also what I would like to see as an investor. It really would be the best outcome if everyone wins here. So to answer your question from purely a technical & judicial viewpoint, yes this mine will get permitted and built with or without Cat Lake. I know the government mostly cares about the tax revenues this project generates so they will approve this mine in the end no matter what, but I would still like to get a situation where everyone wins.
Regarding your question about the Final EA submission. Again this is just my opinion, but my understanding is that it is a very "back and forth" process in the way First Mining is doing it. They submitted the draft, got all of the questions from the government, answered them all, and now they want to make sure the final version really has everything included for the approval. Also, they are consulting with Cat Lake all the time and have received feedback and questions about their concerns as well which will be included in the final EA submission. They are being very thorough here and that is something investors must understand is for the benefit of us all. This is a process where you don't "mess around" so to speak. You do it properly all the way to the end. This is why it has been hard for Dan to give any final timeline on the process because, as I said, it is still ongoing and they want to make sure everything is in place before the final submission. But it will be done before the end of summer, that's for sure. And when that happens, you can be pretty much sure the approval will be given because it's just a formal process after that where they "check the boxes" so to speak. Cat Lake is doing its own "EA process" as well (funded by First Mining) and that will be completed somewhere around spring 2025. It would be fantastic if they get that done and give their consent before Springpole receives its final EA approval from the government. But this is not part of the "official" process. In the end, the government decides what gets built.
I understand very well (as a rather large shareholder) the frustration investors have experienced with this stock, but there really is no shortcuts here. When you invest in this stock what you really are investing in right now is the ability of Keith, Dan, Steve (and the rest of the team) to make this vision happen for us all. The assets this company sits on are fantastic, but in the end the people are what matters. Keith's track record in this business is phenomenal and I sincerely believe he really does want to create wealth not only for shareholders but the entire communities around Springpole. Both Dan & Steve seem to be very decent and goodhearted people and that is what you want in a situation like this. First Mining Gold and Cat Lake are on good terms and I really don't see any kind of hostility with the two. I have a strong belief in that First Mining and Cat Lake will be able to get a community agreement in place where they permit development on their lands and in return get guarantees from FM and the government for a permanent road to be built and maybe some other profit sharing mechanism. Unless they can be helpful, the government basically needs to stay away from this until the two can come to an agreement. If this gets up and running, the amount of money it will generate is insane and that will solve all future problems and concerns Cat Lake might have as well as giving them a fantastic opportunity to prosper economically.
My whole thesis with my big investment in First Mining Gold really comes down to this vision where everyone wins and both Springpole and Duparquet get developed into big mines that will shower wealth on these regions like nothing has before. All the stars are aligning here for a massive win for us all.
https://www.indigenouswatchdog.org/update/these-ontarians-rely-on-roads-made-of-snow-and-ice-but-what-happens-when-winter-is-too-warm/
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