Nationalization is of course a huge threat and that would pretty much be the end for the Canadian mining industry as it is now. But how realistic is this really?
Looking at the approval ratings, Trudeau is basically at an all time low right now. You can see on his Twitter feed that a lot of average people are really pissed off at his government's liberal policies and seem to hate him. A lot of people really don't like the direction he has put Canada on, so my suspicion is that there will be a change of leadership here in 2025. Pierre Poilievre is the likely candidate to take over and my thinking is that he will have lots of support both from industry and just average people wanting to see a more right leaning and business friendly direction. I really do hope his party receives a massive win in the elections.
Ford's government while having received lots of criticism from leftists is actually quite well liked when you look at the polls in Ontario. I still think they are the favorite to win the 2026 elections. A majority of people still support him and his policies, it's just the left leaning media that tries to tell you otherwise. You can also clearly see this trend all over Europe and also in the US with Trump. People are really fed up with leftist liberals and their insane green policies, immigration etc. Right wing parties are rising in popularity every year and this is a trend I see continue all over the Western world.
If you get Pierre Poilievre as PM and Ford continuing his government with also George Pirie as his mining minister, then I think we could be looking at a fantastic situation for the mining industry. Ontario is already really one of the best mining jurisdictions on the planet even with all of the regulation currently in place. Minister Pirie has also enacted the "Build More Mines Act" which already shows you quite clearly what they are trying to achieve here. I see less and better regulation in the future for Canada, it really could not get much worse than what we have now.
So to sum it all up, I really don't think that nationalization is a major risk here if we get this more conservative new leadership into power. That's just so bad for business and not even the most left leaning politicians could really afford to take the risk of ruining the Canadian mining industry from foreign investment. With all of this talk about us needing to shift to renewables and more electrification of our economies there really is no way Canada could afford to miss out on this with its massive mineral reserves.
At the end of the day, politicians lie for votes but they all want the money. Without money you have no government, and the government like you said is pretty much broke. They will need lots of new tax revenue in the years to come and mines are really one of the greatest wealth creators there is. With a new "super commodity cycle" at hand, these undeveloped mining projects are getting more and more valuable. Believe me, in the end the money is what will win here.
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