First Mining Gold Corp (FFMGF)

[TommyJ7651]

Just read these couple of articles (referenced in the end) about the fiscal situation in Ontario. They are now projecting a deficit of almost 10 billion dollars in 24-25 and are not expecting things to get better until 26-27. This is quite important for us as FFMG investors to take note of. Why? Because it means the government of Ontario will be in desperate need of more tax revenues in the coming years and will certainly be looking at those projects where the potential is the highest.

If you look at the pre-tax and after tax numbers (2000$ gold) for Springpole and Duparquet you get an idea about what I'm talking about:

Springpole: Pre-tax NPV = $2,361 billion After Tax NPV = $1,599 billion

Duparquet: Pre-tax NPV= $1,15 billion After Tax NPV = $640 million

These rough estimates means total tax revenues for both Springpole and Duparquet will be north of $1 billion dollars easily at current gold prices. Just Springpole alone could generate over a billion dollars in tax revenues if gold prices rose to 2,3-2,5k per ounce which is very probable during the life of the mine. Keep in mind that if we really see a gigantic rise in the price of gold to say 5-10k during the next decade or so then these projects will be absolute cash flow monsters for Ontario. The overall economic benefits from these two projects will be billions of dollars for the entire region.

"The outlook for economic growth has "deteriorated significantly" over the last year, the government says."

"You can either put on the brakes or you can keep going forward, supporting the infrastructure spend, supporting the economy, supporting workers, and that's the way we've chosen."

Think about these statements from the government and what they are thinking in a situation like this when they look at projects like Springpole and Duparquet. Do you really think they will pass an opportunity like this? I don't think so.

This is really the main reason I believe the permit is pretty much already decided for Springpole after all the "boxes have been checked". They will get the permits simply because the political and economic incentive for the government will be too great to pass. Not only the money but the jobs, roads, infrastructure, powerlines etc. is an opportunity that Cat Lake cannot afford to pass either. They know this will get permitted because it will be a cash cow.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-budget-2024-1.7155581
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