Exhibitionist's Corner (EXHIB)

[Francois+Goelo]

>>>>>¶<<<<< VERY LAST POST from me on this Board...

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188625

Posted by: Francois+Goelo
In reply to: IH Admin (Matt) who wrote msg# 6304 Date: 9/27/2001 2:02:26 AM
Post # of 6305

***¶*** Matt, you haven't got a Clue...

Congratulation for having fallen for it Line, Hook and Sinker... I have the feeling that you won't get too many people to help you from the Grassroots level to build up your business again, when they discover they can be discarded at the first opportunity, even though they built "YOUR" Flagship Stock Thread on iHUB... I know you want to sell out and you'd like to have the Stock Flagship looking Nice and Pretty, money being a strong motivator for you...

SHAME on you, you INGRATE, when you bend to the will of proven LIARS and FRAUDSTERS (with 6 years Probation) and their Supporters...

Sent by PM: Rich McBride Date: 9/21/2001 3:28:04 PM

Frank

I will e-mail it to Huff and he will post over at RB.
I have started to PM it to everybody and Matt will be
back.

Enjoy the little power you have, while you still have
it.

Rich

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188289

Glad to see Frank controlled.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=187614

A breath of fresh air

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188300

People lets enforce the rules. It's our job to let Matt
know. If he gets tossed enough he will go through the
suspension process.

Rich McBride

**********************************************************

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188129

Matt, what's your current Price and how much can you be bought for, not that you're worth anything, in my view??...

I have now terminated all my Boards here and will advise Posters of the NEW Message Board on which they'll be re-started... Matt, Greedy Opportunist, don't ever BEG me again to open a thread here when it was a barely moving (Post #3,200) Message Board because I'll tell you to EFF Yourself...

JMHO, F. Goelo + + +

[Seahag]

MSNBC made the announcement today that "the litttle guy saved the day". SH

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶*** WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 22, 2001

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 22, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        09/21/01     09/10/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                   965.80     1,085.78     -11.05% 
 Dow Jones               8,235.81     9,605.85     -14.26% 
 NASD Comp               1,423.19     1,687.70     -15.67% 
 Russell 2000              378.89       445.19     -14.89% 
 SOX Index                 381.01       513.91     -25.86% 
 Value Line                294.60       350.04     -15.84% 
 MS Growth                 494.21       545.73      -9.44% 
 MS Cyclical               416.25       511.82     -18.67% 
 T - Bill                    2.20%        3.18%     -98 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.59%        5.39%     +20 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $292.90      $275.10     +$17.80 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.62        $4.18       +$.44

Economic News:
==============

FOMC Lowers Rates - Stock Market Reopens - Truly Ugly
Greenspan Congressional Testimony Not Market Sensitive
"V" Word Coming - War Victory and "V" Shaped Recovery


*FOMC Cuts Rates Intermeeting By One Half Point -
Fed Funds now 3.0% and Discount Rate now 2.5%

*Business Inventories fell -.4% in July - Sales rose +.4%
Inventory/Sales ratio improves to 1.42 months

*August Consumer Price Index up +.1% - Core Rate -
Without Energy and Food - Rose +.2%

*International Trade Deficit eased to $28.8 bil in July

*Beige Book Summary - Prior To September 11th - Economy
Generally sluggish in August and early September

*Jobless Claims eased -49,000 to 387,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose -3,250 to 409,000

*Philadelphia FRB Index in September improves to -7.3
From August's -23.5 - Prior to September 11 th

*August Housing Starts fell -6.9% to 1.527 mil rate -
July also revised downward, but still very strong


Obviously more time has passed since the horrific
terrorist attacks against the United States, and the
financial markets have reopened. The reaction, as
depicted in the table above, wasn't pretty - and this
after a terrible August, and a decline from the top,
basis S&P 500, of almost 30% prior to September 11th.
Our view before the attacks was that the markets
had over-reacted to the economic slowdown. And, not
surprisingly, given further significant declines in the
stock market, our conclusion hasn't changed, but the
nearer term outlook has.

First, a recession is now almost a certainty. Given a
virtual halt to economic activity because of the
attack, in part by the grounding of America's airline
industry, and as the public focused on every news report
and stayed away from the malls, third quarter GDP will
very likely be negative.

Later this coming week we will know if the second quarter
GDP growth rate is revised to negative, but even if not, the
fourth quarter will likely now be negative, rather than the
beginning of a recovery we had previously expected. So, it
is probable that the common "definition" of a recession,
two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, will be met.

But, in our view, it simply doesn't matter whether there is
a short, shallow recession or not. The year 2001 is almost
over. What matters is 2002, and whether or not a more serious
recession can be avoided, and an earnings recovery begin. We
are hopeful on both counts, as long as consumer confidence
doesn't collapse.

Predicting consumer confidence at the moment is impossible,
but there are some hopeful signs. It seems to me that
the spirit of Americans is rather high, given the incredible
outpouring of patriotism, as evidenced by nationwide
sellout of American flags of every description, to the
widespread sympathy for victims and their families, to the
appreciation of the efforts and heroism of rescue workers.

And then there were the symbolic acts, that were, and are
important - from the playing of the American National
Anthem at Buckingham Palace, and in Paris, to the visits
to America by foreign dignitaries, and NATO invoking Article V.
The message is quite clear that we are not fighting alone.

Now, I am not foolish enough to think this all translates into
retail sales instantly, but in my view it should help prevent
a long term "hunker down" mentality. If so, then the economic
impact could be more like the Gulf War, when retail spending
"hit the wall" - but only for a few weeks. And, we have the
calendar on our side.

And, for further support, the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) cut rates last Monday, and I expect will lower rates
further at their next meeting on October 2nd. On top of the
unprecedented easing of monetary policy, fiscal policy will
now become even more stimulative. At first there were the
tax cuts, now there will be serious spending, not just to help
rebuild New York City, but also for security measures - just
to start. It will be a massive effort, and well financed.

But, President Bush, in his Thursday night speech, was honest
and forthright. Nothing will be quick. Maybe a few air strikes
that make the evening news, but the war against terrorism will
be a long one - in my mind a permanent one if we are to prevail
and preserve the world's Democracies hard won freedoms. It
won't be easy, but in reality there is no other path. Again, as
President Bush implied, you are either with us, or against us.

At the moment, the world, or at least all the important players,
are with us. We will prevail - period. The "V" word will
ultimately resurface in everyday vocabulary, outside the
sports world. I suspect it will also resurface in the economic
lexicon, but not perhaps until early next year.

However, as you all know, the stock market is a discounting
mechanism, at least on an intermediate to longer term basis.
If you agree, and 2002 estimates hold, to say nothing of being
revised upward based upon massive fiscal and monetary stimulus,
then the stock market is a flat out - BUY.

We'll see, but I firmly believe six months from now the stock
market will be higher. Not by a little bit, but meaningfully.
In the meantime, volatility will remain. But, what counts
for the investor is the end result, not the intermediate near
fluctuations. Stay tuned !


Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday: Leading Economic Indicators

Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales

Friday: Final 2Q Gross Domestic Product

[Francois+Goelo]

Claire, agreed that a long drawn out Conflict...

will be bad for the US Markets... However, I expect Asian and particularly Chinese stocks to perform very well, due to:

- Confirmed entrance in the WTO, that should progressively reduce Tariffs by some 17%...

- Huge consummer market - 1.26 billion for China alone - with a high level of savings and great "needs"...

- A high level of economic Growth: 7.5% on average for China, compared to negative Growth for most of the civilized nations...

Gold miners should also do well in the short term and some of my Autralian mining stocks are finally showing some decent performances....

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dgd.ax&d=c&k=c4

JMHO, F. Goelo + + +

[Claire]

Good reading: A New Vision on the Market.....

From: http://www.astroecon.com/

I incorporate technical analysis to generate both short and intermediate term outlooks for the U.S. equity market. Technical methods rely primarily on price support/resistance, trend lines, and Elliott Wave analysis. Alternative wave counts are always provided and outlooks include guidelines that confirm or invalidate the preferred scenario.

Each week’s commentary includes a summary of long-term planetary influences (such as aspects made by slow-moving planets which can last for several months), short-term influences (often triggered by the fast-moving moon or other smaller planets), and a reference listing of exact times of planetary aspects including intraday periods when planetary location may impact trading behavior on a specific U.S. exchange. A specific commentary on a particular day may predict the market’s reaction to a major economic report (e.g., non-farm payroll, PPI/CPI) based on the report’s coincidental timing with known astrological aspects. Another might focus on whether a speech by Alan Greenspan might jolt market psychology by making a surprise statement. How eclipses or other significant planetary alignments may trigger geopolitical events are also considered. The weekend commentary summarizes the prior week’s trading action and takes a look ahead based on long-term astrological events.

[Claire]

Wars do usually have a positive effect on the economy and the markets, but only as long as one is a) sure to win and b) doesn't become the target of devastating counter-attacks at home. Otherwise, a long drawn out War just ends up compressing PE's further. No more Peace Dividend.

From: http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=FFIV&read=17287

[Francois+Goelo]

Protagonists of the next Potential War of Religion...

with undertones of Drug Trafficking...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/graphics/attack/investigation_5.html

Afghanistan

Afghanistan, 250,000 square miles of often forbidding terrain pinched between Iran and Pakistan, has been controlled by the radical Islamic Taliban movement since 1996.
Negotiating – even reasoning – with the Taliban has vexed governments and international organizations ever since the group assumed power after a long civil war.

Only three countries – Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government in Kabul.

The group, whose name means "seekers of religious knowledge," sprang up from ultra-conservative religious schools in refugee camps in Pakistan.

The camps were recruiting grounds for guerrilla groups during the Soviet Union's 1979-89 occupation of Afghanistan and during years of battle between rival ethnic warlords that followed the collapse of the Soviet-backed government in 1992.

The emergence of the Taliban in the mid 1990s was initially hailed by many Afghans, who welcomed the group's promise to unite the country and end more than 15 years of warfare. But powerful warlords in the north – particularly the Tajik commander Ahmed Shah Massoud – continued their guerrilla campaigns. Many Afghans have turned against the Taliban because of its repressive brand of Islam and the brutality of its leaders.

Foreign governments, alarmed by the proliferation of Islamic terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, a rise in opium cultivation and trafficking and disdain for human rights, shunned and isolated the country. Today, Afghanistan is one of the poorest and most backward countries in the world.

Particularly galling for foreign governments is the Taliban's harboring of Osama bin Laden, a fugitive Saudi millionaire who is the world's most wanted terrorist suspect.

Last December, the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution demanding that the Taliban hand over bin Laden to any country "where he will be arrested and effectively brought to justice."

The resolution also said the Taliban "should act swiftly to close all camps where terrorists are trained within the territory under its control."

– John Ward Anderson

Pakistan

Pakistan serves as the Afghan regime's principal channel to the world. Nevertheless, Pakistan appears to have relatively little influence on the Taliban, whose leaders are extremely resistant to advice and pressure from abroad.

Pakistan, which is governed by an army general who seized power in October 1999, is trying to win international support to shore up its economy and project a moderate image despite its support for the Taliban and for armed guerrillas fighting Indian forces in the disputed border region of Kashmir. However, if the United States were to launch an air attack or commando raid on Afghanistan to kill or seize bin Laden, Pakistan would likely criticize such an attack publicly and not overtly allow its territory to be used as a launching pad.

In August 1998, the United States bombed several desert camps in Afghanistan in retaliation for bin Laden's alleged links to the bombings of two American embassies in East Africa. A number of Pakistanis were killed and wounded in the attacks; most were reportedly being trained there for armed religious combat, possibly with funding from bin Laden.

The two countries share a long and porous border, which has served for years as a relief valve for hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees fleeing war and drought. Pakistan is also a Muslim state; a vocal and influential minority of Muslims in Pakistan support the Taliban, including armed extremist groups.

Strategic ties between the two countries intensified during the 1980s, when Soviet troops occupied Afghanistan while Pakistan served as a base for U.S.-backed resistance fighters, who included bin Laden.


– Pamela Constable

India

India has no official ties with the Taliban government and regards it as a dangerous source of Islamic terrorism.

Islamic extremists hijacked an Indian jet in 1999 and forced it to land in the Afghan city of Kandahar. Taliban authorities acted as a go-between to secure the release of most hostages in exchange for allowing the hijackers to escape. Indians criticized the government for caving in to terrorists, and since then, India has been even more critical of the Taliban.

– Pamela Constable

Saudi Arabia

If there is an epicenter of Islamic anger against the United States, it lies 60 miles south of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at a desert airfield where dozens of American fighter and reconnaissance planes are stationed to police southern Iraq.

U.S. aircraft arrived in Saudi Arabia in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait. They helped repel that invasion and remained at the invitation of the Saudi royal family to help guarantee stability in the Arab oil states of the Persian Gulf despite pledges to Islamic conservatives that they would return home as soon as the Iraq crisis ended.

Still nervous about Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and wary of the future of the Shiite Muslim government in nearby Iran, the Sunni Muslim-run Arab countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have in the past decade bought tens of billions of dollars in weapons from the United States and accepted what has evolved into a permanent force of American ships, planes, tanks and personnel.

To bin Laden and other extremists who trained with him to fight the Soviet army in Afghanistan, the U.S. presence amounts to a modern crusade, an army of infidels in the sacred birthplace of Islam interested only in oil supplies and defending Israel. It was the basis of his call for holy war against the United States, beginning after the Gulf War.

-- Howard Schneider

Iran

Iran occupies a strategic position between the Middle East and Central and South Asia, sharing a 580-mile border with Afghanistan. But it has poor relations with the Taliban government as well as with the United States.

Some of the deepest differences between Iran and Afghanistan are ideological and doctrinal. Iran's conservative religious leaders base their legitimacy on their Shiite strain of Islam, while the equally conservative Taliban leaders base theirs on the majority Sunni strain.

The two countries also have serious border disputes. Iran unwillingly plays host to about 1.4 million Afghan refugees, most congregated in camps near the frontier, and it is waging a violent campaign to seal its border to opium shipments from Afghanistan. Iran almost went to war with Afghanistan in 1998, when Taliban soldiers killed 10 Iranian diplomats and an Iranian journalist in the northern Afghanistan town of Mazar-e Sharif.

Some analysts have argued that the United States should try more forcefully to repair relations with Iran because it could play a role in containing hostile regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, another of its neighbors.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the few countries in the world that refuses to establish government-to-government ties with the United States, citing numerous historical grievances, particularly the CIA's role in a 1953 coup that overthrew an elected government and installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as ruler. The shah was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic revolution, during which radical students seized the U.S. Embassy and held 52 U.S. Americans hostage for 444 days. Relations between the two countries have never recovered.

-- John Ward Anderson

Russia

Russia knows what it is like to go to war in Afghanistan and lose.

The Soviet Union -- which then included Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan -- invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Years of fighting followed until the Soviet forces withdrew in 1989.

The fight against the Soviets marked the beginning of the two-decade career of bin Laden, who came to Afghanistan to battle the Soviets with fellow Islamic warriors, called mujahedin, and is now the alleged leader of a terrorist organization taking refuge with the Taliban.

Russia has emerged as a leading opponent of the Taliban, helping to finance the lingering Afghan civil war by providing arms to opponents in the north of the country and urging joint action by other European powers against the regime. Russia fears a new wave of instability in the already unstable region in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the United States.

Russian leaders say they are already at war with bin Laden and forces they describe as his proxies in Chechnya, a predominantly Muslim region in southern Russia that is fighting for independence. They say Chechen rebels have been financed by bin Laden and other Islamic extremists, although without citing conclusive evidence.

-- Susan B. Glasser

Central Asia

The Central Asian countries that formed the underbelly of the Soviet Union have emerged as the battleground for an Islamic insurgency aided by Afghanistan that threatens to destabilize the region. In the past two years, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has staged raids in a bid to overthrow the area's young, quasi-democratic governments and establish a land based on Islamic law in the Ferghana Valley that encompasses parts of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The region's leaders have responded by bolstering their militaries, tightening their borders, cracking down on internal liberties and turning increasingly to Moscow for help. The situation has led to increased tension in the strategically located region where Russia, China and the United States all vie for influence by coming to their aid against a common enemy.

Washington fears that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan -- powered by the Afghan drug trade, trained by the Taliban and operating out of Tajikistan -- represents an arm of bin Laden's organization and has supplied training, equipment and political support to the governments fighting it. Russia has even stationed troops in Tajikistan.

-- Peter Baker

China

China has developed increasingly close ties with the Taliban and, according to news reports, recently signed a memorandum of understanding for more economic and technical cooperation.

The memorandum is the most substantial part of a series of Chinese contacts with Afghanistan over the last two years. China now has the closest relationship with the isolated Kabul regime of any non-Muslim country, a senior Western diplomat said.

China has helped form the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which joins it with Russia and four Central Asian countries in a loose grouping. One of its main purposes is to combat cross-border terrorism, specifically from Afghanistan. But at the same time, China has dealt with the Taliban as part of an effort to persuade its officials to close Afghan-based camps that are used to train Muslim separatists from China's restive Xinjiang region. Those separatists on occasion re-enter China and launch attacks on China's security services or civilian targets.

As part of a sweetener to secure cooperation from the Taliban leadership, Asian diplomats say, China has dangled the prospect of providing Afghanistan with much needed infrastructure and economic development assistance. The new agreement was reported on Tuesday. A Chinese delegation signed the deal in Kabul with the Taliban's mining minister, Mulla Muhammad Ishaq, news reports said.

[Seahag]

FG, those weren't sticks they were trees :)) SH

[Francois+Goelo]

A Red Blooded American Message to Islamic Terrorists

http://libertyordeath.tripod.com/attack/warning.htm

[Francois+Goelo]

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 15, 2001...

by Bob Bose...

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=182623

[Francois+Goelo]

From Stratfor: Intelligence Analysis....

Note: how about expelling all non-American Arab residents from the US, for starters?... American assets, including people will remain greatly exposed outside the US and American Arab will continue to pose an internal Threat...

I agree with Stratfor that the US is ill-suited to fight this War and another Vietnam is potentially looming if land troops are sent in Afghanistan and elsewhere... Worse yet, a War of Religion pitting Muslims - controlling most of the World's Energy - against the rest of the World, is now also a serious possibility...

No Easy Battle 2000 GMT, 010914 Summary:

In the wake of this week's terrorist attacks in the United States, the U.S. government is trying to decide how it can defeat its new style of enemy. The key to victory is finding the enemy's center of gravity, or what enables it to operate, and destroying it. But what has worked for the U.S. military in the past may not be enough this time around.AnalysisThe foundation of any successful military operation is defining and attacking the enemy's center of gravity: the capacity that enables it to operate. A war effort that does not successfully define the enemy's center of gravity, or lacks the ability to decisively incapacitate it, is doomed to failure. The center of gravity can be relatively easy to define, as was the Iraqi command and control system, or relatively difficult to define, as was Vietnam's discovery of America's unwillingness to indefinitely absorb casualties. In either case, identifying the adversary's center of gravity is the key to victory.

In the wake of this week's terrorist attacks in the United States, this question is now being discussed in the highest reaches of the American government. The issue, from a military standpoint, is not one of moral responsibility or legal culpability. Rather, it is what will be required to render the enemy incapable of functioning as an effective force. Put differently, what is the most efficient means of destroy
will to resist?This is an extraordinarily difficult process in this case because it is not clear who the enemy is.

Two schools of thought are emerging though. One argues that the attackers are essentially agents of some foreign government that enables them to operate. Therefore, by either defeating or dissuading this government from continuing to support the attackers, they will be rendered ineffective and the threat will end.Such a scenario is extremely attractive for the United States. Posing the conflict as one between nation-states plays to American strength in waging conventional war. A nation-state can be negotiated with, bombed or invaded. If a nation-state is identified as the attackers' center of gravity, then it can by some level of exertion be destroyed.

There is now an inherent interest within the U.S. government to define the center of gravity as Iraq or Afghanistan or both. The United States knows how to wage such wars.The second school of thought argues that the entity we are facing is instead an amorphous, shifting collection of small groups, controlled in a dynamic and unpredictable manner and deliberately without a clear geographical locus. The components of the organization can be in Afghanistan or Boston, in Beirut or Paris. Its fundamental character is that it moves with near invisibility around the globe, forming ad hoc groups with exquisite patience and care for strikes against its enemies.This is a group, therefore, that has been deliberately constructed not to provide its enemies with a center of gravity. Its diffusion is designed to make it difficult to kill with any certainty. The founders of this group studied the history of underground movements and determined that their greatest weakness is what was thought to be their strength: tight control from the center.

That central control, the key to the Leninist model, provided decisive guidance but presented enemies with a focal point that, if smashed, rendered the organization helpless. This m
cepts inefficiency -- there are long pauses between actions -- in return for both security, as penetration is difficult, and survivability, as it does not provide its enemies with a definable point against which to strike.This model is much less attractive to American military planners because it does not play to American capabilities. It is impervious to the type of warfare the United States prefers, which is what one might call wholesale warfare. It instead demands a retail sort of warfare, in which the fighting level comprises very small unit operations, the geographic scale is potentially global and the time frame is extensive and indeterminate. It is a conflict that does lend itself to intelligence technology, but it ultimately turns on patience, subtlety and secrecy, none of which are America's strong suits.

It is therefore completely understandable that the United States is trying to redefine the conflict in terms of nation-states, and there is also substantial precedent for it as well. The precursor terrorist movements of the 1970s and 1980s were far from self-contained entities. All received support in various ways from Soviet and Eastern European intelligence services, as well as from North Korea, Libya, Syria and others. From training to false passports, they were highly dependent on nation-states for their operation.

It is therefore reasonable to assume the case is the same with these new attackers. It would follow that if their source of operational support were destroyed, they would cease to function. A bombing campaign or invasion would then solve the problem. The issue is to determine which country is supplying the support and act.There is no doubt the entity that attacked the United States got support from state intelligence services. Some of that support might well have been officially sanctioned while some might have been provided by a political faction or sympathetic individuals. But although for the attackers state support is necessary and desirable, i
tates would disable the perpetrators.

One of the principles of the attackers appears to be redundancy, not in the sense of backup systems, but in the sense that each group contains all support systems. In the same sense, it appears possible that they have constructed relationships in such a way that although they depend on state backing, they are not dependent on the support of any particular state.An interesting development arising in the aftermath is the multitude of states accused of providing support to the attackers: Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Algeria and Syria, among others, have all been suggested. All of them could have been involved in some way or another, with the result being dozens of nations providing intentional or unintentional support. The attackers even appear to have drawn support from the United States itself, as some of the suspected hijackers reportedly received flight training from U.S. schools.

The attackers have organized themselves to be parasitic. They are able to attach themselves to virtually any country that has a large enough Arab or Islamic community for them to disappear into or at least go unnoticed within. Drawing on funds acquired from one or many sources, they are able to extract resources wherever they are and continue operating.If such is the case, then even if Iraq or Afghanistan gave assistance, they are still not necessarily the attackers' center of gravity. Destroying the government or military might of these countries may be morally just or even required, but it will not render the enemy incapable of continuing operations against the United States.

It is therefore not clear that a conventional war with countries that deliberately aided the culprits will achieve military victory. The ability of the attackers to draw sustenance from a wide array of willing and unwilling hosts may render them impervious to the defeat of a supporting country. The military must systematically attack an organization that tries very hard not t
at can be attacked. In order for this war to succeed, the key capability will not be primarily military force but highly refined, real-time intelligence about the behavior of a small number of individuals. But as the events of the last few days have shown, this is not a strength of the American intelligence community. And that is the ultimate dilemma for policymakers. If the kind of war we can wage well won't do the job, and we lack the confidence in our expertise to wage the kind of war we need to conduct, then what is to be done? The easy answer -- to fight the battle we fight best -- may not be the right answer, or it may be only part of the solution....

[Claire]

Francois,
Do not seem we have the same feeling about US foreign policy aimed at global domination .....and bombing some countries for the last 10 or 20 years....


From SI:


TERROR
The price of hegemony
(from a conservative anti-war site)
The World Trade Center – monument of the New York business community, towering over downtown Manhattan like twin silver phalli pointed at heaven – is but a pile of smoldering rubble. Crashing down along with this symbol of capitalism, modernity, and civilization is the overweening hubris of a government – and a people – who thought themselves immune. It is the doctrine of "American exceptionalism," the theory that the US – blessed by Providence and released from the travails faced by other nations – is exempt not only from the rules that govern and limit the powers of other nations, but also from history itself. For history – and not only history but physics – tells us that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. No one is immune, and this is the meaning of the horrific events unfolding before our eyes.

Let's reiterate what has happened: in a coordinated operation that involved hijacking a plane from Boston, two aircraft dove into the World Trade Center, leveling both buildings and (probably) killing and injuring thousands. Not only that, but in Washington, D.C., the Pentagon itself was reportedly under attack, with at least one explosion in the area: also the US State Department is the scene of yet more high drama, as it too is rocked by explosions in the area and evacuated. It was a strange sight indeed to see an F-16 jet fighter plane patrolling the skies above New York City and the announcer's voice intoning in a sepulchral voice that the primary election scheduled for this morning in New York has been canceled.

Suddenly, Americans wake up one day to find that they are living in a Third World country. Would anybody be surprised to learn that all civil liberties have been suspended, and martial law declared? What is going on?

What's going on is this: the war is coming home. The war fought by America and its chief Middle East ally against the Palestinian uprising has moved from the streets of Gaza to the boulevards of the imperial metropolis. What Americans are facing, now, is what the Israelis face on a daily basis. For us, these attacks are a horror of monumental proportions, something so out of the ordinary that to call it ‘unusual' would be something of an understatement: for the Israelis, this is a way of life.

The Israelis recently had an election in which they made a decision: they would rather live this way than give in to the Palestinians' demands. They elected Ariel Sharon, an Israeli hawk, who vowed to take a tough line against the Intifada. The Palestinian response has been relentless: a vicious all-out war fought by suicide-bombers targeting civilians. They voted for it, they knew what they were getting into, and they have steeled themselves to endure it. The question that poses itself almost automatically is: when did we vote for it?

The reappearance of kamikaze planes diving into American targets just a few days after V-J ("Victory over Japan") Day should give us pause: the last time we faced down and beat such fanaticism was the occasion for a world war in which the entire nation was mobilized and militarized, and there was talk of canceling a presidential election. Are we willing to do that again? And here is a sobering thought….

The US mainland was completely unaffected by the last world war: millions were killed, but not on our shores. The closest they ever came was when the Japanese dropped some hot air balloons over the state of Washington. But not this time. In the age of globalization, a world war means that everybody's back yard is a potential battlefield.

A common word we hear in foreign policy circles is "hegemonism." We stand at the apex of power, and the French have even invented a special term for the hubristic heights of the American Imperium: they call us the hyperpower. It was coined to describe a power outside human history, outside the ordinary rules and conditions attached to human existence, a power without parallel or precedent. We were all about actions, and not about consequences: unlike the empires of the past, America was thought to be exempt from any possible reaction to its imperial edicts. Now we know it isn't true: too bad we had to learn the hard way.

Justin Raimondo

[Francois+Goelo]

Claire, this is in line with my suggestion...

and makes good sense, as it's an excellent future deterrent for other countries harboring or helping terrorists... From the Qualcomm Board on RB...

"A New Generation; it's own day of infamy.

Steve Yee

By this time, all of us on have been innundated with many mind-numbing images; ranging from the fire on the North World Trade Center tower, to the United 767 plunging itself full throttle into the South World Trade Center tower; the crash at the Pentagon, to the aborted hijacking attempt in Pennsylvania.

Ironically, my first thought is not one of sadness, nor one of anger. The first thought through my mind is a single, powerful word that has wide ranging effects if the United States Government follows the same thought process that I have.

That word going through my mind is not retaliation; the thoughts running in my mind are not of revenge. The word that plunges constantly through my thoughts is retribution.

Yes, retribution.

The poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow said in the "Masque of Pandora":

Every Guilty Deed
Holds in itself the seed
Of retribution and undying pain.

This act of terrorism has finally stripped my Protestant Christian upbringing of "forgive and forget"; bringing back the desire that is more in line with the Old Testament days of "an eye for an eye". Possibly my thoughts go back to the days of ancient Greece, where the Greek goddess Nemesis was the goddess of retribution; raining down terror and punishment when the gods were displeased with the lowly humans below.

And just like when the Greek gods asked Nemesis to rain down terror and punishment when humans presumed too much about their gods, I sincerely hope that the United States will have their military, law enforcement, diplomatic, and financial might rain holy terror against all those who harbor ill will against the United States and their allies.

In the fictional "Jack Ryan" series of books by award-winning author Tom Clancy, an interesting parallel to these series of events occur in its' storyline where a fuel ladened 747 jet slams into Capitol Hill, destroying Capitol Hill and nearly destroying the entire elected government (Debt of Honor). In the book "Executive Orders", fictional United States President Jack Ryan helps orchestrate a systematic dismantling of an extremist Islamic terrorist and his organization. At the end of Executive Orders, Jack Ryan says that those who wage acts of terrorism against the United States will be met with all the rage and fury of the United States of America.

This is the type of reaction that the United States needs to have. We should not talk. We should not use words saying that we don't like what's going on. We need to wage terrible war against those who wish to do harm against our citizens, our territories, and our allies. As Thomas Jefferson said, "The price of freedom is eternal vigilance". Unfortunately, we've just learned the ultimate price of not being vigilant.

So, to President George W. Bush (a.k.a. Number "43"). This is a message to you from one of your constituents - one who voted for you. I fully expect the United States to provide retribution for these acts. Retribution for every man, woman, and child who lost their lives in the air, and on the ground. The United States needs to send a message to the world that if the world does not present those who aided, sponsored, and harbored those who did these heinous acts of terror, we shall wage war. Wage war against those who are willing to kill those who are innocent.

For those countries who harbor these godless, spiritless animals: Our diplomats should announce to those countries that harbor or sponsor terrorism that they should be given 3 days to present those terrorists to the United States or one of their allies, and evacuate all of their cities.

If they do not present those responsible, on the fourth day, we will use our armed forces to utterly destroy the military, government, and then civilian assets in those countries who harbor terrorists. We should systematically decimate each country that harbors terrorists until they present them to go to trial. (Just like the unofficial United States Marine Corps motto....When it Absolutely, Positively Must be Destroyed Overnight !)

Financially - The United States should sieze all assets belonging to those countries that harbor terrorists. For those countries who have loans with the United States and harbor terrorists - We shall call all loans due and payable. We will bankrupt your country until you give them up. We will starve your populace until you yield. Your countries and it's critics say that the United States is a country that projects it's foreign policy improperly outside it's borders. We will show you what our foreign policy can really do, and what it is like when you anger the United States!

For those of you who are part of a terrorism cell within the United States borders - Our Law Enforcement should hunt you down. If you are involved in the planning or assistance of any terrorist act within the United States, it's assets, or it's allies, you will be brought to justice; you will be brought in front of a merciful court and given a sentence that is opposite of the lack of mercy that you showed your victims.

In paraphrasing Longfellow, this is a very guilty deed. The United States needs to sow the harvest of retribution and undying pain and deliver it, in a Nemesis-like wave upon wave, to those who wish us harm.

I just hope that our government has the balls to pull it off."

[Claire]

Francois,

I am not so sure of that....Razing Kabhul? Hmm...We shall see. The response from the US will be, indeed, very interesting to follow and to interpret.
Don't forget thet the same congressman who promoted a sharp decrease in the Intelligence Budget five years ago, said it was now one of the biggest Intelligence Failure of all times.... Ahhh...What a joke.
Yes, Francois, interesting to Follow...not just in a precise moment , but in a medium-long term. Like Sevu. (I still would like to know the answers, and you know these French women...quite persistant....!!!)
See you.
Claire

[Francois+Goelo]

Claire, you should have done that before...

Indeed, I do expect a temporary surge in both commodities and it might be a good time to get rid of my languishing Portfolio of Australian Gold Mines, such as Delta Gold, etc...

This really is a momentous time in American History and I truly believe Terrorism will be the BIG LOSER in the Medium to Long Term, as the civilized World will unite to make it unbearable for any country to host Terrorists...

One avenue I see, in the case of Afghanistan, is to give them 36 hours to evacuate the capital Kabhul, before razing it to the ground, as an example for would-be Protectors of Terrorism...

JMHO, F. Goelo + + +

[Claire]

Time to buy Gold and Oil....
Interesting market, when it will open !

[Francois+Goelo]

*** Expert: Bin Laden Warned of 'Unprecedented' Attack

http://dailynews.att.net/cgi-bin/news?e=pub&dt=010911&cat=news&st=newscrashtradecenterbi...

[Seahag]

It's Lady Dahlias' birthday? I didn't know but to you MS Dahlias

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, DEAR DAHLIAS
HAPPY BIRIRIRTHDAY TO YOU :):):):) Seahag

[Claire]

Happy Birthday, Dalhias ......

[Seahag]

Dahlias, Yes "Time marches on, unfortunately, it marches right across our faces" Dolly Parton said that in "Steel Magnolias" LOL :) SH

[Francois+Goelo]

Claire, some pundits expect the Housing Sector...

to do reasonably well and don't believe a collapse is on the horizon... With the current low interests, they're probably correct...

Regards, FG

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010910/business_economy_nabe_dc_1.html

CONSUMPTION FORECASTS RAISED

But NABE sounded optimistic about consumption, which makes up two-thirds of the economy. Real consumption expenditures, are expected to grow 3.0 percent in 2001, compared to the 2.7 percent gain estimated earlier. NABE still expects 2002 consumption growth of 2.9 percent. Residential construction is now expected to grow 1.8 percent in 2001, compared to earlier expectations for a 1.0 percent contraction, the survey said. NABE also raised forecasts for residential construction growth in 2002 to 1.6 percent from earlier forecasts of 0.5 percent.

Housing starts are forecast around 1.62 million units in 2001, instead of 1.58 million units earlier predicted. The median forecast for 2002 is now 1.60 million units, up from the 1.55 million forecast made in May.

``The mix of diverging revisions reflects the degree to which the resilience of the household sector to deteriorating business conditions has caught economists by surprise,'' the report concluded.

[101Dahlias]

Claire...Yes, I still follow the SEVU saga. WOW, the things that go on there and the eye opening discoveries that Shamus post and others.

You know, I did love what that company did. The security camera, I thought was so neat. The underwater camera, I thought was so special. Also the underwater pool pad that collected the sun rays in the day and gave off a soft glo of light in the pool at night.

I thought Rich Mc Bride has some good things going for the company. Then all this stuff comes out about him and now some law suit with "Treasure Stores of Key West, Inc.". Wow, how can one man get into so much trouble is beyond me.

I am sure glad I jumped out of SEVU at $12.50. Kinda wish I would have jumped out when it hit 28.00 that one short time. Gee, I wish I could hit real good on just one stock in my life time......Just one is all I ask. Maybe we all wish for that.

Guess it is not written in my book of life.....Time does march on....Yikes!!!....Monday marks another Birthday for me...Quite depressing!!!.........LOL LOL LOL.

[Claire]

Aie, aie, Dalhias... Unreal, really.... But who knows? ...One is always trying to find a black sheep.
Do you still read the Sevu Saga? I just count the points...Nothing really new. But still hoping in the end to get my bottle of Mouette. One day...

[Claire]

Hi,

I remember seeing a 20-40M for the market size of the Remodulin...and they projected a 75-100M revenues for 02 in the last filing.

Actelion was also approved and could be a serious competitor if the side effects do not present too many problems..

Also, the short position (20%)could create a spike if some interesting news come up....

Now, of course, we need some interesting news....:)

September looks like it will be the last terrible leg before a rally. But how sustainable will it be? I expect the housing sector to crash down very shortly.What do you think?

[101Dahlias]

ALL here is a correction on the post number at Raging Bull where I got the post from. For some reason the post number had changed.....I did do a copy and paste....so I didn't change the post number....how it changed I do not know.

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=EDIG&read=768919

This is in re: to my last post here about Greenspan.
As always
101D

[101Dahlias]

All found this at RB on my EDIG stock message board. Thought it a interesting read. Take it for what it is worth.

By: moxa1 $$$$
Reply To: None Wednesday, 5 Sep 2001 at 10:09 AM EDT
Post # of 768970


OT: Here's the real reason for the bear market. Criminal if you ask me.

Greenspan makes a stunning admission. (Dated 9/1/2001) -- Sep 4 2001
by Investment House
Remember back when Greenspan was trying to talk the market down and was coming up with all of those 'new' inflation gauges back in 1999? At the time we were incredulous that the Fed was viewing indicators of economic health and prosperity as new inflation measures. There was no inflation by historical standards, yet the Fed seemed to be trying to create the atmosphere that it was a real, tangible threat. To our shock, it worked.

One of those new inflation indicators was the 'wealth effect' that rising equity markets were causing. The Fed referred to it continually, but the only evidence it ever presented as to its existence was a short Fed statement that each percent rise in equities led to a percent rise in consumption. Whenever questioned by Congress on it, Greenspan would offer to meet behind closed doors with that Congressman and explain it. The Fed's statements about the stock market wealth effect were statements of fact, and those that kissed the chairman's ring (way too many smart people) accepted it as gospel.

Well, Friday Greenspan admitted that the Fed did not really understand how the wealth effect works, indeed, even if it existed. The reason: the stock market has tanked, U.S. citizens have lost trillions in retirement accounts, and yet the consumer has continued to do what by definition they do: consume. That led the maestro to wonder if perhaps it was home equity and not stock market gains that led consumers to spend. He even went as far as to ask for economists to submit data on the subject so the Fed could study what was supposedly fact just two years ago.

Could it be that consumers simply consume when they have jobs, when inflation is low, and when technology makes goods and services cheaper? Is that the wealth effect? Heck, that is just common sense, something we were saying at the time. Consumers consume. Until the economy tanks and they lose their jobs or are faced with the eminent threat of job loss, they continue to consume. We said that over two years ago, and it seems the Fed is just starting to grasp that.

Indeed, we pointed out three specific studies (as opposed to the Fed's self-generated, statistically barren conclusions) that concluded that at least 80% of stock market gains over the past 20 years have been put right back into the market to generate further returns. Not surprisingly, investors were using the stock market as a store of wealth and a method for achieving their own social security. Contrary to the Fed's statements, consumers were saving in the best place to put your money until the Fed chased wild aquatic fowl and tanked the market and then the economy.

The unbelievable, sad, pathetic, frustrating and tragic consequence of this is that the Fed acted on a half-baked theory that had NO empirical substantiation and wrecked the lives of millions of U.S. citizens not to mention sending the entire global economy into recession. We said it at the time: as the U.S. goes, the world goes. The results we see now speak for themselves. It was a bunch of guys behind closed doors deciding that things were too good and all good things must come to an end. So, they set about bringing those good things to an end, thinking with the supreme arrogance that 20 years of riding an economic boom they could not grasp engrains that they could control the rate of decent.

Just as their predecessors on the 1929 central bank fought non-existent inflation by tanking the stock market and the world economy, the 1999 Fed ushered in a stock market crash and global recession. Then to hear Friday from the author of the collapse himself that one of the very foundations of his plan of action was 'not fully understood' by the Fed is simply mind-boggling. Will he get the rebuke that he deserves? He has not yet, and thus far we have heard no strong outcry. We have said it before: when a couple of lawyers who do nothing more than read history and apply common sense can see what economic geniuses supposedly cannot, something is wrong. Either they are caught up in their own self importance, or there are other more sinister forces at work. Either way it is shocking and frightening, and the majority of the world's citizens are poorer because of it. Unreal.

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=EDIG&read=768919


As always 101D

[Francois+Goelo]

Claire, UTHR looks interesting,...

indeed, with some $8.00 cash in the kitty for the time being...

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html

Nice looking Insider Trading Records...

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/u/uthr.html

I wonder what is the potential value of sales Worldwide for Remodulin...

JMHO, F. Goelo + + +

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators Update: September 1....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 1, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        08/31/01     08/24/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,133.58     1,184.93      -4.33% 
 Dow Jones               9,949.75    10,423.17      -4.54% 
 NASD Comp               1,805.43     1,916.80      -5.81% 
 Russell 2000              468.56       480.81      -2.55% 
 SOX Index                 562.72       594.91      -5.41% 
 Value Line                368.69       378.25      -2.53% 
 MS Growth                 549.45       564.75      -2.71% 
 MS Cyclical               539.24       556.21      -3.05% 
 T - Bill                    3.28%        3.33%      -5 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.37%        5.44%      -7 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $276.50      $274.90      +$1.60 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.21        $4.19       +$.02

Economic News:
==============

Last Week's Market Reaction To Data A Gross Overreaction
Consumer Confidence Not Falling Apart - Just Easing
Late Second Half Recovery On Track - Led By The Consumer


*Existing Home Sales fell -3.0% in July - Below consensus

*Consumer Confidence eased to 114.3 in August from
July's 116.3

*2nd Qtr Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to +.2%
From +.7%

*Jobless Claims eased -1,000 to 399,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +12,500 to 393,000

*July Consumer Spending rose just +.1% - Personal Income +.5%

*Factory Orders for July rose +.1% - Above consensus

*Univ. of Michigan August Consumer Sentiment eased to 91.5
July level 92.4 - Mid August was 93.4

*Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 43.5 versus
Expectations of 40.0


Last week we had commented that we thought the Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) made a mistake when they
announced the results of their meeting. The intense focus
on only modest signs of weakness in last week's data
reinforces our view. In very short order, the "Greenspan
Put" is being tested.

For those of you that haven't been subscribers for long,
the notion of the "Greenspan Put" is simply that the
FOMC has come to the rescue of recent market breaks by
lowering rates rapidly, thereby bailing out investors.
Sort of the equivalent of being long a put option.

The rationale for the FOMC is simply that they are big
believers in the "wealth effect" which assumes a tight,
and significant linkage between changes in net worth
and consumer spending. We are much bigger believers in
the "income effect", and were therefore pleased with the
July Personal Income report. And, as longer term
subscribers know, we firmly believe that if the American
consumer has the wherewithal (i.e. income) and the
confidence, they will spend. At the moment, confidence
is the key issue.

Clearly consumer confidence softened a bit in August,
but we would emphasize that the change was modest, and
a rather typical, and lagged, response to the increase in
the unemployment rate. And, as the unemployment rate is
a lagging indicator, and very likely to move higher, we
would also expect consumer confidence to soften further.
But, and this is a big but, soften is not the same as
a collapse that then severely impacts consumer spending
as some market participants last week believed.

For instance, the same day that the consumer confidence
report was released, Investors' Business Daily reported
that Wal-Mart's August sales were above plan, and they
had been projecting year-over-year gains of 4% - 6%.
And, the very next article noted that other major
retailers were " ... largely on plan." Although it should
be obvious, although anecdotal evidence, these results
are more "current" than the official "Consumer Spending"
report released last Thursday, and support our belief that
the slight softening in consumer confidence will not
lead to an acceleration to the downside in spending.

Further support for our view was the revision to 2nd Qtr
GDP. As noted above, the revision was downward, but not
into negative territory. While the final revision could
go negative, what really is important is not plus/minus
a few tenths of one percent in old data. What counts is
that the downward revision was heavily concentrated in
inventories and trade. Obviously the reduction in
inventories helps clear the "pipeline" for the resumption
of production growth.

And, while the media may try to put a negative spin on it,
Friday's "manufacturing oriented" reports were both better
than expected. Obviously we would like confirmation of the
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index next week, but for now
the evidence supports our view that bouncing along the
bottom is different than the FOMC view that there remain
significant risks to the downside.

Not surprisingly, we haven't changed our view for a late
second half recovery, that accelerates into 2002. At
current levels, even the Federal Reserve Board's "valuation
model" is positive, supporting our view that last week's
selloff, and the month of August for that matter, were an
overreaction to very short term economic softness.

Stay tuned, volatility will be with us for quite some time !


Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday: LABOR DAY HOLIDAY - FINANCIAL MARKETS CLOSED

Tuesday: Construction Spending, National Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index

Wednesday: Revised 2nd Qtr Productivity

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday: Labor Department Employment Report, Wholesale Trade

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: August 18, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        08/17/01     08/10/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,161.97     1,190.16      -2.37% 
 Dow Jones              10,240.78    10,416.25      -1.69% 
 NASD Comp               1,867.01     1,956.47      -4.57% 
 Russell 2000              475.65       475.52       +.03% 
 SOX Index                 555.54       593.05      -6.33% 
 Value Line                373.82       378.67      -1.28% 
 MS Growth                 554.49       547.08      +1.35% 
 MS Cyclical               547.74       559.25      -2.06% 
 T - Bill                    3.29%        3.35%      -6 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.42%        5.53%     -11 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $282.00      $276.80      +$5.20 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.27        $4.15       +$.12

Economic News:
==============

Last Week's Data On The Surface Somewhat Mixed
Details, And Important Reports, Much More Positive
Nothing Changes Our Forecast For Late Second Half Recovery


*July Retail Sales unchanged - Ex Autos +.2%
June revised from +.2% to unchanged - See Below

*Business Inventories fell -.4% - Sales fell -1.4%
Inventory/Sales Ratio ticks up to 1.43 months

*July Industrial Production fell -.1% - Capacity
Utilization edged lower to 77.0% from 77.2%

*Jobless Claims fell -8,000 to 380,000 - Four Week
Moving Average down -9,250 to 370,750 - Five month low

*July Housing Starts rose +2.8% to 1.67 mil annual rate
But Housing Permits eased -1.8%

*July Consumer Price Index fell -.3% - Core Rate
Ex volatile food and energy rose +.2%

*August Philadelphia FRB Index fell to -23.5 from -12.2

*June Trade Deficit -$29.4 bil - In line with consensus

*Univ. of Michigan mid-month Consumer Sentiment 93.4
Up from July's 92.4 and consensus forecast of 92.0
Expectations rose to 101.7 from July's 98.6


Although there were a few soft spots in last week's
reports, on balance, in our opinion, the numbers were
pretty good. And, given the continued lack of any
buildup of inflationary pressures, it is about as good
a bet as one can make that the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) will lower rates by one quarter of
one percent after their meeting on Tuesday. So, that
decision is already "priced into" the market. What
isn't "priced in" is the improving outlook for 2002.

First, the all important consumer continues to keep
the economy out of recession, although retail sales
were unchanged for July. However, gasoline is, not
too surprisingly, a decent component of retail sales,
and as we all know, the price of gasoline has been
falling sharply. The impact is not only that of a
modest tax cut, but also to suppress reported retail
sales growth. In other words, retail sales are
holding up quite well.

Friday's release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Report was also a positive. Not only did it tick up,
versus a consensus expectation of a modest decline,
but the more forward looking expectations subcomponent
had a larger gain. Granted, it is only one data point,
but it is directionally important, and at the worst
implies that the outlook for consumer spending has
not deteriorated.

The manufacturing sector, which has been declining
sharply, may now be bottoming out. For instance,
while overall industrial production declined slightly
in July, manufacturing production was flat. And, then
there is the continuing improvement in the jobless
claims reports, as the less volatile four week moving
average is at a five month low, and as we noted last
week continues to contradict some of the Beige Book.

In part the explanation may lie in the continuing
decline in the manufacturing sector as a source of jobs,
as the service sector becomes increasingly important.
Or, it may simply be that the lagged impact of the
labor markets is beginning to decelerate. In any
case, we are not trying to assert that all is well
in the manufacturing sector, or that the unemployment
rate won't rise further - it will.

Our view is that the economy continues to bounce along the
bottom, at virtually zero growth. But, it seems quite
likely that consumers will not precipitate an acceleration
to the downside, and that the stimulative impact of prior
monetary easing, and the current tax refund, will produce
the desired recovery beginning later this year.

And, the FOMC will take out an "insurance policy" next
week. It may not help the financial markets near term,
but our view remains that the key driver for the stock
market should be the outlook for 2002. Barring some
exogenous event, a recovery toward trendline growth
beginning late this year, and accelerating in 2002, should
stabilize forecasts, and ultimately lead the stock
market higher.

Stay tuned !


Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday: Leading Economic Indicators

Tuesday: FOMC Meeting

Thursday: Jobless Claims, FOMC Minutes - June Meeting

Friday: Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: August 11, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        08/10/01     08/03/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,190.16     1,214.35      -1.99% 
 Dow Jones              10,416.25    10,512.78       -.92% 
 NASD Comp               1,956.47     2,066.33      -5.32% 
 Russell 2000              475.52       487.15      -2.39% 
 SOX Index                 593.05       641.06      -7.49% 
 Value Line                378.67       388.59      -2.55% 
 MS Growth                 547.08       544.86       +.41% 
 MS Cyclical               559.25       568.95      -1.71% 
 T - Bill                    3.35%        3.43%      -8 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.53%        5.58%      -5 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $276.80      $270.80      +$6.00 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.15        $4.23       -$.08

Economic News:
==============

Last Week Focus Was On The Negatives - And There Were Some
Markets Ignored One Huge Positive - Productivity Growth
Our Best Bet Is Still For A Late Second Half Recovery


*Consumer Credit fell -$1.5 billion in June - At -1.2% rate

*Second Quarter Productivity rose at +2.5% rate - See Below

*FRB Beige Book - Softer Than Expected - See Below

*June Wholesale Sales fell -.9% - Wholesale Inventories -.2%
Inventory/Sales Ratio 1.33 months - Highest in two years

*Jobless Claims rose +33,000 to 385,000 - But Four Week
Moving Average down -16,000 to 380,000 - Four month low

*July Producer Price Index fell -.9% - Core Rate - Without
Volatile Food & Energy Prices - Rose +.2%



Last week financial market participants focused on the negative
Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Beige Book and concluded that the
economy was accelerating to the downside. They ignored the
very, very positive report on second quarter productivity.
And, while some reports are only loved by economists, productivity
drives living standards, as well as corporate profits. But, as
is often the case, investors are focusing on the very short term
negatives and ignoring a long term positive.

The "negative" trigger was the FRB Beige Book in general, and
the comment that "Sustained weakness in the manufacturing
sector spilled over to other businesses ... " (from the
Summary) in particular. But some of the comments from the
Beige Book don't "square" with other data.

For instance, under the Manufacturing subheading, " ...
layoffs were pervasive." But, as noted above, the less
volatile four week moving average of jobless claims is at a
four month low. And, under the Labor Markets subheading
"Most Districts reported that conditions in labor markets
remained steady or loosened somewhat in recent weeks." That
comment is not reinforced by the Labor Department Report
of the prior week, even though the surveys would have been
conducted at approximately the same time.

Then there were the reports of sluggish retail sales, but there
was a big difference between discount stores and those that
sell more upscale merchandise. For instance, WalMart reported
July same store sales rose +6% - an excellent gain. But
Federated Department Stores (Bloomingdale's) reported a decline
of -4.2% in same store sales. Clearly WalMart is benefiting
from the tax refund checks, as are other discounters, so we
continue to believe that retail sales, particularly outside
the auto sector, will not soften materially.

Obviously, then, we do not share the degree of gloom that
some "read into" the FRB Beige Book, preferring instead to
focus on the growth of productivity for the second quarter.
Given the context of essentially flat GDP growth, a gain of
+2.5% is excellent.

The reason that this number is so important is really twofold.
First, on a fundamental level it reduces the threat that
inflationary pressures will build, thereby easing one of my main
concerns. And second, it tends to validate Chairman Greenspan's
assumption that much of the productivity growth of the late 1990's
was secular, not cyclical. If he is right, there are profound
implications for monetary policy.

Simply put, higher productivity growth supports the FRB's higher
growth rate assumptions of sustainable, non-inflationary growth.
We have discussed a target range of 3.5% - 4.0% in the past, but
questioned the validity of that range, given weakened productivity
trends, particularly in this year's first quarter. If the latest
numbers hold up, the FRB will be slower to raise rates during
the economic recovery, and corporate profits will be higher,
lending support to higher valuation metrics.

Obviously we don't think all the news last week was bad. Quite
the contrary. It is simply a question of getting from the here
and now, out a few months, when we believe the recovery starts
to take hold. And given our longer term investing time horizon,
we remain optimistic that the financial markets will improve
later this year. So, stay tuned !


Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================


Tuesday: Retail Sales

Wednesday: Business Inventories, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts/Permits, Philadelphia FRB Index

[Seahag]

HELLO CLAIRE AND DAHLIAS....I just checked in here for the first time in a while. Glad to hear you're all well and still having fun. What are you catching Claire? My luck has been down. I was REALLY starting to get a complex until my husband showed me an article in the paper yesterday that said the Reds and Trout were not happening in the lower bay. I haven't finished it yet but the author was saying something about the baitfish not being there. I'm gonna go finish reading it now. FG, didn't mean to leave you out. HELLO TO YOU TOO. I need to go tell my husband that he may be married to a Hermaphrodite because at least half of those "man" things apply to me :) SH

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: August 4, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        08/03/01     07/27/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,214.35     1,205.82       +.71% 
 Dow Jones              10,512.78    10,416.67       +.92% 
 NASD Comp               2,066.33     2,029.07      +1.84% 
 Russell 2000              487.15       485.01       +.44% 
 SOX Index                 641.06       601.67      +6.55% 
 Value Line                388.59       385.60       +.78% 
 MS Growth                 544.86       539.67       +.96% 
 MS Cyclical               568.95       561.43      +1.34% 
 T - Bill                    3.43%        3.46%      -3 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.58%        5.54%      +4 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $270.80      $270.20       +$.60 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.23        $4.22       +$.01

Economic News:
==============

Manufacturing Sector Still Weak, But Consumer Sector Solid
Consumer Drives Two Thirds Of Economic Activity
Don't Bet Against American Consumer - Recovery Still Likely


*Personal Income rose +.4% in June - Personal Spending
Rose +.3% - Both were ahead by +.1% of prior month

*Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures +.2%

*July Consumer Confidence eased to 116.5 from 118.9

*Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 38.0 in July
From June's 44.4 - Back to May level

*June Construction Spending fell -.7%

*Nat'l Purchasing Manages' Index eased to 43.6 in July
From 44.7 in June

*June Factory Orders fell -2.4% - Inventories down -.7%

*Jobless Claims fell -23,000 to 346,000 - Four Week
Moving Average down -14,500 to 395,250

*Labor Department Employment Report
- Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.5%
- Nonfarm Payrolls fell -42,000
- Average Hourly Earnings rise $.04/hr to $14.35
- Average Workweek unchanged at 34.2 hours


Last week's reports continued to highlight the vast split
between the manufacturing sector and the consumer sector.
The former remains weak, although the auto sector and textile
industries make the data less reliable at this time of
year. But, the consumer continues to "carry the day."
And, in our view consumption spending will hold up, and
as the inventory adjustment runs its course, manufacturing
should pick up. Overall, we remain optimistic that a
recovery will begin late in the second half.

The "key" is clearly the consumer, and the news is good.
First, consumer confidence, though it eased, has held up
very, very well. The reason, in our view, is simply that
the labor markets have remained strong, and virtually anyone
who wants a job has one, as confirmed by the latest
Labor Department Report.

For instance, payrolls did not decline as much as the consensus
thought they would, and the decline was, again, concentrated
in manufacturing. The result was that the unemployment rate
was unchanged, versus a consensus estimate of an increase of
+.2% to 4.7%. The reason this is important is simply that
the "rate" will get the play in the media, and unchanged
is not a "depressing" bit of news to the consumer. So, the
odds of a sharp fall off in confidence diminish. And, as
longer term readers know, we firmly believe that if consumers
have both the confidence and income, they will spend, as they did
in June.

Clearly income has, and should continue to hold up well. Wages
are going up, and in fact the year-over-year increase was
up slightly to +4.4% - which doesn't thrill us, and serves as a
reminder that productivity improvement during the recovery will
be important. But, for the moment, wage increases, combined
with rebate checks, support consumer spending.

And, our assumption that rebate checks will be spent appears to
be holding up fairly well, at least according to WalMart. As
you may know, they have a program for cashing rebate checks,
and they have reported that they are in fact being spent. Given
the phased mailing, such spending support should run through
the end of next month.

One other point worth noting is that so far this year, payrolls
have risen, not by much, but up nonetheless. During recessions,
not surprisingly, payrolls decline. The point here is simply that
if the worst is behind us in terms of layoffs in the manufacturing
sector, and remember that labor markets lag, then there is still
more reason to believe that the important consumer sector will
hold up, and ultimately drive the economic recovery.

Obviously the manufacturing sector is still weak, but we don't
think the latest Purchasing Managers' data indicates a renewed
acceleration to the downside. In part, because the National
Index didn't change much, in part because of the timing problems
from the auto sector, and in part because inventories appear to be
being brought under control.

Excluding an exogenous event, then, our view remains the same.
A late second half recovery is likely, and by early-mid 2002,
growth should have returned to at least 3.0% and perhaps a
little better. It is still too early to declare victory for
the soft landing, but in our view it remains the best bet.

So, stay tuned !


Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Tuesday: Consumer Credit, Nonfarm Productivity Q2

Wednesday: FRB Beige Book

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday: Producer Price Index

[Claire]

Dalhias, hello there amiga !!!
Where are you? Your mailbox is full of messages and the boards ar too quiet without you....Be ready: the next bull amusement will begin soon... October, I think.
Meanwhile, summer is fun and the market a little bit boring...
See you soon.

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 28, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        07/27/01     07/20/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,205.82     1,210.85       -.42% 
 Dow Jones              10,416.67    10,576.65      -1.51% 
 NASD Comp               2,029.07     2,029.37       -.02% 
 Russell 2000              485.01       487.93       -.60% 
 SOX Index                 601.67       574.30      +4.77% 
 Value Line                385.60       387.38       -.46% 
 MS Growth                 539.67       546.30      -1.21% 
 MS Cyclical               561.43       571.18      -1.71% 
 T - Bill                    3.46%        3.44%      +2 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.54%        5.53%      +1 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $270.20      $270.20        UNCH 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.22        $4.24       -$.02

Economic News:
==============

Economy Bouncing Along The Bottom - Inflation Data Positive
FOMC Has Room To Lower Rates Further - And Likely Will
Recovery Late Second Half Still Best, And Good, Bet


*Existing Home Sales in June eased -.6% - Still Very
Strong at 5.33 million annualized rate

*Durable Goods Orders for June fell -2.0%

*Jobless Claims fell -51,000 to 366,000 - Four Week
Moving Average down -6,250 to 409,000

*Employment Cost Index rose +.9% in Second Quarter

*Gross Domestic Product for Second Quarter rose +.7%
First Quarter revised back upward to +1.3% - See Below

*June New Home Sales rose +1.7% to 922,000 - May
Revised downward - But Very Strong Report - See Below

*Univ. of Michigan July Consumer Sentiment eased from
Mid-month 93.7 to 92.4 - But unchanged versus June 92.6


Last week's reports firmed our belief that the economy
is "bouncing along the bottom", will not slip into a
recession, and that recovery will begin before year end.
Two important reports also eased our concern, somewhat, that
inflationary pressures will build as the economy recovers.
In other words, a pretty good week.

First, the big news was the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
report. The obvious point is that there was growth, albeit
anemic. Clearly large revisions are possible, and even ones
where the sign would change. But for now, there hasn't
even been one quarter of negative GDP, let alone two, which
would comply with the official definition of a recession.

Somewhat below the surface data, inventories were cut back
sharply and consumption spending was +2.1% - down from +3.0%
in the first quarter, but not bad given the softening labor
market. And, Chairman Greenspan's favorite measure of
inflation was well behaved.

Specifically, the personal consumption expenditure index
rose +1.7%. Not only is this a non-inflationary number, but
it is a sharp slowdown from the first quarter's +3.2%. And,
further support that inflationary pressures will not build
near term was the small rise in the Employment Cost Index
(ECI) of +.9%. Again, a modest gain, and a deceleration from
the first quarter rate.

New Home Sales continued at a very high rate, and actually
increased +1.7% in June to 922,000. This is the seventh
consecutive month for which sales have exceeded 900,000, which
is a first, according to the Wall Street Journal, since this
series began in 1963. Clearly the housing sector remains robust.

And, the labor market even improved somewhat, but the volatility
of jobless claims is notorious. However, although no official
explanation was given, there were sharp drops in claims in many
of the "automotive" states. Maybe auto industry model changeover
shifts are still impacting the data, or perhaps the majority of
the layoffs are behind us in that sector. Too soon to know, but
any improvement in the claims data, at this point, is positive.

Overall, then, we liked last week's reports, and believe that the
economy is pretty much tracking an "Econ 101" scenario. Monetary
tightening produced the slowdown, but a prompt policy reversal
seems to be working to avoid a recession. The normal policy lag
would be six to nine months, so "support" should begin to "kick
in" right about now, and continue through year end. And fiscal
policy is also turning more supportive, with the leading economic
indicators having risen three months in a row, our view for a
late second half recovery is tracking well. And, we even got a
pleasant surprise from the inflation data.

So, no change in our outlook, but we are increasingly confident
of our views. So, stay tuned !


Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Tuesday: Personal Income/Personal Spending, Consumer Confidence, Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index

Wednesday: National Purchasing Managers' Index, Construction Spending

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Factory Orders

Friday: Labor Department Employment Report

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 21, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        07/20/01     07/13/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,210.85     1,215.68       -.40% 
 Dow Jones              10,576.65    10,539.06       +.36% 
 NASD Comp               2,029.37     2,084.79      -2.66% 
 Russell 2000              487.93       490.71       -.57% 
 SOX Index                 574.30       593.93      -3.31% 
 Value Line                387.38       390.43       -.78% 
 MS Growth                 546.30       530.56      +2.97% 
 MS Cyclical               571.18       563.74      +1.32% 
 T - Bill                    3.44%        3.52%      -8 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.53%        5.63%     -10 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $270.20      $267.60      +$2.60 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.24        $4.31       -$.07

Economic News:
==============

Economic Data Last Week Not Great - But Not Bad Either
Media, In Our Opinion, Distorted Greenspan's Testimony
Recovery This Year, And Accelerating In 2002, Best Bet


*May Business Inventories unchanged - May Sales rose +1.1%
Inventory/Sales Ratio drops to 1.42 months

*Industrial Production in June fell -.7% - But May Revised
Upward to -.5% from -.8%

*June Capacity Utilization fell to 77.0% from revised 77.6%

*June Housing Starts rose +3.0% to 1.66 mil annualized rate

*June Housing Permits fell -3.3% to 1.57 mil annualized rate

*Consumer Prices rose +.2% in June - But Core Index,
Excluding Volatile Food & Energy, rose +.3%

*Chairman Greenspan's Congressional Testimony - See Below

*Jobless Claims fell -35,000 to 414,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +2,500 to 414,500

*May International Trade Deficit falls to $28.3 bil -
Lowest in sixteen months

*Leading Indicators rose +.3% to 109.6 - See Below

*Philadelphia FRB Index eased to -3.7 in June from -12.2
But New Orders subcomponent improved modestly


Warren Buffett has often been quoted as saying that if
you are digging yourself into a hole, the first thing
you should do is - stop digging. The saying applies to the
economy, in that for it to recover, it must first stop
declining. And, for a while now, we have been of the opinion
that the economy was "bouncing along the bottom", and that a
recovery was very likely late in the second half. In Buffett's
analogy, the economy has stopped digging itself further into
a hole, a precursor of a recovery. And, the data support this
interpretation.

For instance, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators advanced
in June, the third consecutive monthly advance. This is likely
a trend, and importantly signals the beginning of an economic
recovery late this year, right on schedule given the normal six
month lag of this index. And, while the index has likely captured
the impact of monetary stimulus, it probably has not been able
to capture the near term fiscal stimulus of tax refund checks.
And the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) made it obvious last week.

As I am sure you all noted, the IRS mailed a letter that told you
that your refund check was in the works, and the amount of your
refund - very clever politics, but also not bad economics. The
point I want to make is that the "political" angle, even if you
don't receive your check until late September, helps to uphold
consumer confidence, as you have been told it is coming. And,
once you get it, you feel better all over again. Good politics,
and good economics as the Administration will get maximum fiscal
stimulus from the one/two approach.

While Chairman Greenspan noted the positive impact of the fiscal
stimulus in his semi-annual Congressional testimony, the media
"played it" quite negatively - at least in my opinion. Not only
do I not think his remarks were that negative, I think that all
the media missed the important point. And one that longer term
subscribers know that we have been focusing on.

Specifically, we have noted that we think the Federal Reserve
Open Market Committee (FOMC) is making a big bet on the
magnitude of the bounce back in productivity growth as the
economy recovers. In Chairman Greenspan's testimony, he
referenced "structural productivity" many, many times, and
acknowledged the inflationary threat. His focus is not so much
on the core price indexes as on the personal consumption index
from the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report regarding
inflation, and he still thinks there isn't a problem.

But, he is counting on a very big increase in productivity growth,
and we, simply put, are not quite as convinced as Chairman
Greenspan that productivity will bounce back as much as necessary
to prevent the build up of inflationary pressures. After all,
there is a huge economic difference between productivity growth of
2% or 3%. It may not seem like much, but it is a 50% difference.

Net bottom line - our views haven't changed. We still believe
the economy will recover, beginning later this year, and that
economic growth will accelerate toward 3% in 2002. So far, so
good. Our concern, though, is that inflationary threats may build
as well, and it is on this issue where we disagree with Chairman
Greenspan.

I sincerely hope that my concerns are unfounded, and that Chairman
Greenspan is right. Stay tuned !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================


Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Q2 Employment Cost Index, Durable Goods Orders

Friday: Q2 Advance GDP, New Home Sales

[101Dahlias]

Claire.....So nice to see u again. My shoulder is coming along ok...a little slow but still mending...but therapy makes it get ouchy. As soon as it is all healed I will be headed for Italy and France for some fun.

Sounds like you have been doing well. I am almost out of the OTCBB stock world...trying to find a good one is like looking for a needle in a hay stack!! So I am staying away from them except for my beloved EDIG. I am liking a Gold stock I have and a couple of the biotechs.....Not playing much for the summer. Maybe I will find something good this fall.

This summer has been too dry....we are in a sever drought in my area. Our lawns are all brown and I have a tulip tree that may croak.....even my pine trees seem to be suffering and they usually can stand a dry spell.

Drop me a line when u can. Use my RB
[e-mail]...or [e-mail]....my home server has changed....a few times in fact....I still have my box here if u like to send me a note here....I do not check it as often...am not here much ...no one posting at any of my message boards here...so nothing much to do.

spending a lot of time out doors now anyway, but usually on the net in the evenings....unless there is a good movie or something good on the tele.......Ciao mi amiga
101D

[Claire]

My, my, Francois.....I am afraid I am becoming a boring Lady...Only the number 60 had me smiling in derision...

And for the stocks ! Well, lesson well learned, I am playing with more secure stocks, by now...UTHR still my preferred with a FDA approval pending for August 9th....But , who knows? Not me , for sure !!!

So, let's play for fun....I am so busy with others things that I read and don't talk most of the time. But I am here.
See you

[Francois+Goelo]

Here is another one for the Ladies,...

on the advantages of being a Male....

Being a guy: how many times have you caught your self thinking, man, it's nice to be a guy because...

Your ass is never a factor in a job interview.

Your orgasms are real. Always.

Your last name stays put.

The garage is all yours.

Wedding plans take care of themselves.

Chocolate is just another snack.

You can be president.

You can wear a white shirt to a water park.

Foreplay is optional.

You never feel compelled to stop a friend from getting laid.

Car mechanics tell you the truth.

You don't give a rat's ass if someone notices your new haircut.

The world is your urinal.

Hot wax never comes near your pubic area.

You never have to drive to another gas station because this one's just too icky.

Same work ... more pay.

Wrinkles add character.

You don't have to leave the room to make emergency crotch adjustments.

Wedding Dress $2000; Tux rental $100.

If you retain water, it's in a canteen.

People never glance at your chest when you're talking to them.

The occasional well-rendered belch is practically expected.

New shoes don't cut, blister, or mangle your feet.

Porn movies are designed with you in mind.

Not liking a person does not preclude having great sex with them .

Your pals can be trusted never to trap you with "So, notice anything different?"

And don't forget...... phone conversations are over in 30 seconds flat.

You know stuff about tanks.

A five-day vacation requires only one suitcase.

You can open all your own jars.

Dry cleaners and hair cutters don't rob you blind.

You can go to a public toilet without a support group.

You can leave the motel bed unmade.

You can kill your own food.

You get extra credit for the slightest act of thoughtfulness.

If someone forgets to invite you to something, he or she can still be your friend.

Your underwear is $10 for a three-pack.

If you are 34 and single, nobody notices.

Everything on your face stays its original color.

You never feel the need to wash your underwear out simply because they are "slightly soiled." Just throw them in the dirty clothes with everything else.

You can quietly enjoy a car ride from the passenger's seat.

Three pairs of shoes are more than enough.

You don't have to clean your apartment if the meter reader is coming.

You can quietly watch a game with your buddy for hours without ever thinking "He must be mad at me."

No maxi-pads.

You don't mooch off other's desserts.

You can drop by to see a friend without having to bring a little gift.

If another guy shows up at the party in the same outfit, you just might become lifelong friends.

You are not expected to know the names of more than five colors.

You don't have to stop and think of which way to turn a nut on a bolt.

You almost never have strap problems in public.

You are unable to see wrinkles in your clothes.

The same hairstyle lasts for years, maybe decades.

You don't have to shave below your neck.

Your belly usually hides your big hips.

One wallet and one pair of shoes, one color, all seasons.

You can "do" your nails with a pocket-knife.

You have freedom of choice concerning growing a mustache.

Christmas shopping can be accomplished for 25 relatives, on December 24th, in 45 minutes.

One mood, ALL the damn time.

[Francois+Goelo]

Welcome back Claire!...

You missed buying SEVU at 20 cents before its short lived run up to 99 cents, I guess... Why don't you share your Plum stocks with us, common mortals?....

JMHO, F. Goelo + + +

[Claire]

Too bad it's only in English, Francois...But I am sure you think it is Universal...

Going back from some vacations to go back to fishing trout and bass tomorrow, Seahag...And some nice trades and a low profile, just to keep up with it . Sure it looks to to be better very soon...October or November seems my preferred months.

See you soon ....

[Francois+Goelo]

¶ DECODING the Language of the Sexes....

WOMEN'S ENGLISH

Yes = No
No = Yes
Maybe = No
We need = I want
I'm sorry = You'll be sorry
We need to talk = I need to complain
Sure, go ahead = I don't want you to
Is my bum fat? = Tell me I'm beautiful
Do what you want = You'll pay for this later
I'm not upset = Of course I'm upset, you moron!
Are you listening to me? = Too late, you're dead
You have to learn to communicate = Just agree with me
Be romantic, turn out the lights = I hate my thighs
You're so .. manly = You need a shave and you sweat a lot
Do you love me? = I'm going to ask for something expensive
It's up to you = The correct decision should be obvious by now
You're certainly attentive tonight = Is sex all you ever think about?
I'll be ready in a minute = Kick off your shoes and find a good game on TV
How much do you love me? = I did something today that you're really not going
to like

MEN'S ENGLISH

I'm hungry = I'm hungry
I'm sleepy = I'm sleepy
I'm tired = I'm tired
Nice dress = Nice cleavage!
I love you = Let's have sex now
I'm bored = Do you want to have sex?
What's wrong? = I guess sex tonight is out of the question
I love you too = OK, I said it, can we have sex now?
May I have this dance? = I'd eventually like to have sex with you
Can I call you sometime? = I'd eventually like to have sex with you
Do you want to go to a movie? = I'd eventually like to have sex with you
Can I take you out to dinner? = I'd eventually like to have sex with you
Will you marry me? = I want to make it illegal for you to have sex with other
men
You look tense, let me give you a massage = I want to have sex with you in
the next 10 minutes
Let's talk = I'm trying to impress you by showing that I'm a deep person and
maybe then you'd like to have sex with me
I don't think those shoes go with that outfit = I'm gay

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 14, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        07/13/01     07/06/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,215.68     1,190.59      +2.11% 
 Dow Jones              10,539.06    10,252.68      +2.79% 
 NASD Comp               2,084.79     2,004.16      +4.02% 
 Russell 2000              490.71       483.26      +1.54% 
 SOX Index                 593.93       566.51      +4.84% 
 Value Line                390.43       385.27      +1.34% 
 MS Growth                 530.56       530.66       -.02% 
 MS Cyclical               563.74       536.67      +5.04% 
 T - Bill                    3.52%        3.52%       UNCH 
 Long Bond                   5.63%        5.75%     -12 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $267.60      $266.60      +$1.00 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.31        $4.27       +$.04

Economic News:
==============

Nothing Too Surprising Last Week - Lots Of Noise In The Data
Job Outlook Not As Grim As Claims Data - No Price Pressures
Soft Landing And Second Half Recovery Still Best Bet


*May Consumer Credit rose $6.5 billion - +4.9% rate

*Wholesale Inventories rose +.2% in May - Sales fell -.1%

*Richmond FRB Shipments index unchanged in June at -20

*Jobless Claims rose +42,000 to 445,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +2,500 to 410,750 - See Below

*Producer Price Index fell -.4% in June - Core Index -
Excluding Volatile Food & Energy, rose +.1%

*June Retail Sales rose only +.2% - Ex Autos fell -.2%
May revised upward to +.4% from +.1%

*Univ. of Michigan Mid-July Sentiment 93.7 - Trend Intact


Although the stock market was very volatile last week,
reacting to second quarter preannouncements, the more
important concern should be forward looking. The rationale
is simply that the stock market is a discounting mechanism,
and what counts, or should count, is the outlook for later
this year and into 2002. And none of last week's reports
would cause us to alter our outlook for a soft landing
and an accelerating economic growth rate toward year end.

Last week's worst report was clearly Jobless Claims, but
there was a lot of noise in the data. For instance, the
auto industry was closing plants for their traditional
summer shutdown, and it is hard, if not impossible to adjust
for this specific event. However, the largest increase
was from the State of Michigan, so the jump in claims
clearly was impacted by the auto industry shutdown. We
just don't know the magnitude, but it would appear to
be meaningful.

The Retail Sales report also was a little "sloppy" -
at least on the surface. A gain of +.2% is hardly robust,
but the revision to May was quite large, and if the numbers
are smoothed, sales were "ok" - but not great.

Supporting that assertion was anecdotal evidence from many
retailers. Specifically, as reported by the Wall Street
Journal, the " ... Goldman Sachs Retail Sales Index of 39
stores, weighted by sales, rose 2.0% in June, beating a
1.4% forecast." For May the same index rose just .7%.
But, again, the devil is in the details.

As noted, the index is weighted by sales, with, surprise
surprise, Wal-Mart being the heavy hitter - and Wal-Mart
had a great June as comparable store sales rose +6.9%. In
general, department stores did not fare as well, so the
inference is that basic needs buying was maintained, but
that more discretionary purchases were soft. Overall,
the all important consumer sector appears alive, and well,
but just not kicking in high gear.

However, as regular readers know, we have long believed that
the tax rebate checks will be spent, and they will begin
arriving soon - depending upon social security number.
And, the last of the checks won't be mailed out until the
end of September. So, the spending impact should be spread
out for the remainder of the third quarter.

While I don't want to try to "spin" this too closely, the
timing does appear important as retailers generally gear
up for Christmas based upon their most recent sales
experience - in this case back-to-school and early fall.
So, the added impetus from the tax rebates could have a
secondary, and positive, impact.

In any case, the normal lagged response to monetary policy
should begin, which combined with fiscal stimulus, should be
sufficient to assure the soft landing, and the beginning
of recovery later this year. By early 2002, with any luck
at all, the growth rate should have recovered to just below
non-inflationary trendline rates - or approximately 3.0%.

That may not be enough to meet expectations of those making
big bets on cyclical names, but it should preserve a
favorable backdrop for financial asset prices. Stay tuned !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday: Business Inventories

Tuesday: Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts/Permits

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, International Trade

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....


WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 7, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        07/06/01     06/29/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,190.59     1,225.47      -2.85% 
 Dow Jones              10,252.68    10,497.76      -2.34% 
 NASD Comp               2,004.16     2,169.31      -7.61% 
 Russell 2000              483.26       510.68      -5.37% 
 SOX Index                 566.51       624.75      -9.32% 
 Value Line                385.27       399.13      -3.47% 
 MS Growth                 530.66       536.92      -1.17% 
 MS Cyclical               536.67       543.93      -1.34% 
 T - Bill                    3.52%        3.56%      -4 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.75%        5.74%      +1 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $266.60      $271.30      -$4.70 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.27        $4.33       -$.06

Economic News:
==============

Last Week's Reports Quite Good - Beneath The Headlines
Manufacturing Sector Stabilizing - Prices Not Accelerating
No Change In Our Outlook - Second Half Recovery Very Likely


*Personal Spending rose +.5% in May

*Personal Income up +.2% - Prior month's Spending
Revised up - Income revised down - both by .01%

*May Construction Spending rose +.3%

*Nat'l Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index for June 44.7
Modest improvement from May's 42.1 - See Below

*May Factory Orders up +2.5% - Solid Gain And Best
Increase since June 2000

*Jobless Claims rose +7,000 to 399,000 - Four Week
Moving Average fell -9,500 to 407,500

*June Labor Department Report
- Unemployment rate increased +.1% to 4.5%
- Nonfarm Payrolls fell 114,000
- Average Hourly Earnings rose +$.04/hr to $14.26
- Average Workweek unchanged at 34.3 hours


Obviously we had liked the prior week's reports, and we also
liked last week's data. On the surface, most of the reports
were pretty good, but in the details some were even better.
The very clear implication is that the manufacturing
sector is stabilizing, and even improving a bit, but off
a very sharp slowdown. We remain convinced that the worst
is behind us for both the economy and the stock market.

The most important report, Friday's Labor Department
Report on the Employment Situation for June, was actually
quite good, although the media headlines implied otherwise.
First, the unemployment rate only ticked up +.01%, less than
expected. And, from our viewpoint, there was no acceleration
in the year-over-year rate of change in average hourly
earnings. Still higher than we'd like at +4.2%, but a modest
drop from last month's +4.3%.

As is often the case, there was important information in the
revisions. For instance, May nonfarm payrolls were first
reported as a decline of -19,000. The first revision now
is for a gain of +8,000. For April the revisions were
huge - from an initial decline of -223,000 to a first revision
of a decline of -182,000 to a final decline of -165,000.
In other words, as initial estimates are replaced by solid
data, the labor market is not as bad as it appears.

The other important report, which was hardly noticed, was
a subindex of the National Purchasing Managers' Index - Orders.
For those of you that are not familiar with this type of index,
it is known as a diffusion index, where levels above 50.0
imply expansion, and levels below 50.0, contraction. For May,
the Orders subindex was 45.5. But for June Orders improved to
48.6. Clearly 48.6 is not far from 50.0, and supports the
improvement in Factory Orders for May.

Simply put, the technology sector notwithstanding, it appears
that order trends are improving in the manufacturing sector.
Granted, they are improving from reduced levels, but the point
is that they are no longer deteriorating, and that is good news,
and clearly a necessary condition for growth to resume.

And finally, both the official economic reports and trade
industry reports from the auto industry indicate that consumer
spending is being maintained at a healthy rate. The official
report of a +.5% gain for May, and an upward revision to the
April gain, were positive for second quarter growth. And, for
June the auto industry is reporting excellent sales that
annualize at a 17 million rate, and keep the industry on
track for their third or fourth best year ever. Clearly
strong auto sales are a positive not only for consumer spending,
but for the manufacturing sector as well.

Net bottom line, the economy appears to be very much on track
for the second half recovery we have been projecting for quite
some time. Our hope is that price pressures won't build as
the recovery takes hold, but at the moment we are much more
confident about the latter than the former. Stay tuned !


Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday: Consumer Credit

Tuesday: Wholesale Trade

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday: Producer Price Index, Retail Sales

[Seahag]

Got back from a weekend in Crystal River today. What a wonderful place!!!!! Saw a few Manatees including a cow with twins. It's sad to see the scars on their backs from the prop blades. I think they should make prop guards mandatory on all boats that ust the waters in the refuge area. There are too few of these magnificant creatures left in this state. Their curiosity makes them so much fun to be around. They will come right up to your boat to say "hello". We went tooling around some riverlets and some some pretty big Gators. Normally, when you get near them they'll go into the water. This trip we came upon one that just lay on the bank and let us get right up to it, it was exciting. It looked like it was about nine feet give or take. Saw a few River Otters and the usual Ospreys and Bald Eagles. It's nice to know that there are still places like that to go to. Even though the area is heavily used, it still manages to stay somewhat primordial if you get off the beaten paths. Anyone who ever visits Florida should definitely schedule time to go there. Weekdays are definitely preferable as the traffic is much lighter on the water. SH

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: June 30, 2001 by Bob Bose

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        06/29/01     06/22/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,225.47     1,225.35        UNCH 
 Dow Jones              10,497.76    10,604.59      -1.01% 
 NASD Comp               2,169.31     2,034.82      +6.61% 
 Russell 2000              510.68       488.65      +4.51% 
 SOX Index                 624.75       586.31      +6.56% 
 Value Line                399.13       386.35      +3.31% 
 MS Growth                 536.92       545.49      -1.57% 
 MS Cyclical               543.93       541.26       +.49% 
 T - Bill                    3.56%        3.36%     +20 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.74%        5.58%     +16 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $271.30      $273.30      -$2.00 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.33        $4.30       +$.03

Economic News:
==============

Last Week's Reports Couldn't Have Been Much Better
FOMC Lowers Rates, All Indicators Imply Improvement
No Change In Our Forecast - But We Now Have Some Support


*Existing Home Sales rose +2.9% in May to 5.37 mil annual rate
April also revised upward to 5.22 million annualized rate

*May Durable Goods Orders also rose +2.9% - Nice gain
Ex Volatile Transportation sector orders up a solid +2.7%

*May New Home Sales rose +.8% to 928,000

*June Consumer Confidence rose to 117.9 from 116.1 in May
But May was revised upward from 115.5 - Solid increase

*FOMC lowers rates by one quarter of one percent - Also
Leaves bias toward further ease in place - See below

*Jobless Claims fell -16,000 to 388,000 - Four Week
Moving Average eased -7,750 to 416,000

*1st Qtr GDP revised to +1.2% - Consumer Spending revised
Upward to +3.4% from +2.9% - Imports more of a drag

*Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 92.6 for June -
Further strength from mid month level of 91.6

*Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for June 44.4 - Nice
Improvement from May's 38.7 - Price Index eased to 51.0


Even President Truman would have liked last week's reports,
because for those of you that don't remember, he wanted a one
armed Economic Advisor so that he didn't get a response like -
"On the one hand ... and on the other hand." Last week's
reports were that good, and that consistent, even if the job
of an analyst is to point out options. In any case, the odds
of a second half recovery keep improving, and fortunately,
we do have some supporters on the FOMC (Federal Open Market
Committee) that are concerned about the potential build up
of inflationary pressure. A nice ending for the second quarter.

The "big news", of course, was that the FOMC lowered rates
by one quarter of one percent, and kept their bias toward
further ease in place. So far, so good, and about what we
had expected. But, the press release, in our opinion, was
somewhat inconsistent, and not what we expected, or for that
matter, hoped for. In our view, it sent the wrong message.

In simple terms, the press release was rather "gloomy" about
the continued risk to the downside. That view certainly
supports maintaining a bias toward ease, but if that was the
real concern, then why not lower rates one half point? By
lowering "only" (the percentage decrease is only slightly
less than the percentage change from 6.50% to 6.00%) one
quarter point when many market participants were expecting
a half point cut, the implication is that the easing policy
is coming to an end. But, then they missed, in my opinion,
the chance to say so, which would have provided some "relief"
to those expecting earnings to recover later this year.

My best guess for this anomaly is that there is increasing
dissension within the FOMC. The minutes from the May 15th
meeting note that Mr. Hoenig actually dissented from the
half point cut, preferring a one quarter point cut. And,
while some other members voted for the half point cut, they
too would have accepted a quarter point cut. As you know,
our view is that the outlook has improved since that vote,
so, assuming some FOMC members agree, then the "rationale"
for that press release is appeasement to avoid a full
scale uprising against Chairman Greenspan.

If we are remotely accurate, and if the data continues to
show even modest improvement, then the likely outcome from
the August meeting is removal of the bias, and no further
rate cuts. The key, of course, will be the degree of
improvement in the economic indicators, and so far, so good.

As noted above, consumer confidence has continued to firm.
Not widely reported, though, was that according to the
American Bankers Assn. only 2.99% of credit card accounts
were past due in the first quarter. That's an improvement from
the year ago level of 3.28%, and perhaps more importantly,
sequentially from the fourth quarter's 3.34%. So, given
positive balance sheet, confidence, and income trends, consumer
spending should hold up quite well, a view further supported
by the revision to first quarter GDP.

To add fuel to the fire, no pun intended, the price of gasoline
has declined since Memorial Day, and in fact the futures
market is at a seventeen month low. Clearly such a visible
price can only have a positive impact on consumer sentiment.
And, the speculation is that OPEC will leave production levels
unchanged near term, so the worst of the energy price spike
should be behind us.

For longer term subscribers, it will come as no surprise then,
that we are not altering our long held view of a second half
recovery continuing into 2002. Nor are we lessening our concern
about the potential for inflationary pressures to build. The
price index portion of the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Report
was positive, but only fragmentary information. Next Friday
the Labor Department Report will provide updated, and more
useful inputs.

But, in the meantime we were pleased that we now have some
support for our view at the FOMC. The first step in containing
a threat is realizing that there is one. Stay tuned !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday: Personal Income/Spending, National Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index, Construction Spending

Tuesday: Factory Orders

Wednesday: INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY - MARKETS CLOSED

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday: Labor Department Employment Report

[Seahag]

Yep that's about how Beast behaves when it gets on on rant. TOO FUNNY. Thanks for the laugh. SH

[Francois+Goelo]

SH, Good one!... How about Revenge of the BEAST?...

http://www.attrition.org/gallery/other/pain/matador.jpg

[Seahag]

A boy goes to his father asking him to explain the difference between theoretically and realistically. The father suggests that he go to his mother and his sister and ask them if they would have sex with the next door neighbor for $5,000,000 and then come back with their answers. Both mother and sister after giving the question some consideration answered "yes". When the boy returned with the answers to his father,his father then explained that "theoretically, we're sitting on $10,000,000 bucks... realistically, we're living with two whores." LOL SH

[Francois+Goelo]

***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: June 23, 2001 by Bob Bose...

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        06/22/01     06/15/01     %Change 
  
 S&P 500                 1,225.35     1,214.36       +.91% 
 Dow Jones              10,604.59    10,623.64       -.18% 
 NASD Comp               2,034.82     2,028.42       +.32% 
 Russell 2000              488.65       495.13      -1.31% 
 SOX Index                 586.31       608.92      -3.71% 
 Value Line                386.35       391.26      -1.26% 
 MS Growth                 545.49       548.30       -.51% 
 MS Cyclical               541.26       538.97       +.43% 
 T - Bill                    3.36%        3.43%      -7 BP 
 Long Bond                   5.58%        5.67%      -9 BP 
 Gold - Oz-Near Month     $273.30      $272.30      +$1.00 
 Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.30        $4.40       -$.10

Economic News:
==============

Last Week's Reports Very Consistent And Quite Positive
Nonetheless, FOMC Very Likely To Lower Rates Once More
No Surprise - We Still Believe Second Half Recovery Best Bet


*May Housing Starts eased -.4% to 1.62 miliion rate
April revised upward to +2.3% and 1.63 million rate
May Housing Permits rose +2.1% to 1.62 million rate

*Leading Indicators for May rose +.5% to 109.3 - Also
Coincident Index unchanged, Lagging Indicator eased -.2%

*Jobless Claims fell -34,000 to 400,000 - Four Week
Moving Average eased -2,750 to 422,500

*April Trade deficit down to $32.17 billion from upwardly
Revised March level of $33.08 billion

*Philadelphia FRB Index improves to -3.7 in June from -8.8


We liked last week's reports. First, the easing of May Housing
Starts was only an "easing" given the revision to the prior
report. And, while longer term readers know we are often quite
skeptical of this report in the winter months, by now the report
is much more accurate and indicates that housing activity is run-
ning at a very high level. In addition, permits are also at a
very solid annualized rate. The clear inference is not only
that the important housing sector is likely to stay healthy for
the foreseeable future, but there is the implied message that
consumer confidence has at least stabilized.

The other major forward looking report, leading indicators, was
also quite positive. The +.5% improvement was not only much
larger than consensus expectations, but it was broadly based.
In other words, there wasn't a large change in stock prices that
can sometimes have a distorting impact.

In addition, it was the second consecutive monthly gain, and the
third in the last six months to a level that is the highest in
six months. And, the coincident indicator was flat, which is
probably a fairly accurate depiction of second quarter economic
activity, and the lagging indicator continued to fall - but at a
low rate. So, the "numbers" were consistent internally, and are
very supportive of our view for a late second half economic
recovery - if not sooner.

But the real issue is not whether or not we liked the data, but
how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interprets it at
their upcoming two day meeting. Our suspicion is that they will
like the data as much as we do, but yet because they have backed
themselves into somewhat of a box, they will nonetheless cut
rates one more time - as an "insurance policy."

In our view, now that they have resurrected the "Greenspan Put",
no change in rates would be a major negative for stocks, and
therefore in their view on consumer spending through the "wealth
effect" - the connection between changes in net worth and the
impact on consumer spending. But, they would not want to raise
inflationary concerns either.

So, a pragmatic solution would be a change of only one quarter
point, leave the bias toward lower rates in place, and through
the press release "hint" that they will likely "step back" to
await the impact of prior rate cuts. If they lower rates one
quarter point, and remove the bias, a sensible move in our
opinion, they would be signaling that they are very likely
finished lowering rates for this cycle - and are at least mildly
concerned, as we are, that there is some, albeit currently modest,
inflationary risk given their prior aggressive policy actions.

One other point that should not be forgotten, is that the tax
refund checks will be mailed shortly. Clearly this fiscal
stimulus will be part of the FOMC's policy deliberations, and
would also argue for modest current moves, and a "wait and see"
attitude. And, as we are getting close to the end of the second
quarter, and by definition the end of corporate "confession
season", and the stock market has not been under the pressure it
was in the first quarter - the FOMC may have some room to be
less aggressive.

Our "economic preference" would actually be for no action at this
meeting, but maintain the bias - remember we, even if no one else
does, have some concerns that the FOMC has been too aggressive in
lowering rates. However, our "money manager" preference is for
a quarter point cut, leave the bias in place, but hint that a wait
and see approach is quite likely.

The least desirable action, in our opinion, would be a half point
cut, even assuming the bias would be removed. In our view,
furthering the aggressive policy to date is not necessary, and
unwise. The stock market might "pop" near term, but longer run,
in our view, the risks to financial asset prices would have risen
materially as inflationary pressure would be likely to build.

Root for a tortoise policy. Stay tuned !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday: Existing Home Sales

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting

Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Concludes - Announcement

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday: Q1 Final GDP, Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index

[Seahag]

Ender, keep the remote in hand while watching Billie Elliot. The sound people did a terrible job. The dialect is thick and I had to rewind several times to catch all of the lines. The other problem is that you have to keep thevolume up high to here the dialogue but when they switch to the music, if you let the volume remain at the same level, it will blst you into space.Other than that the film is delightful. Enjoy, SH