S&P 500 1,215.68 1,190.59 +2.11% Dow Jones 10,539.06 10,252.68 +2.79% NASD Comp 2,084.79 2,004.16 +4.02% Russell 2000 490.71 483.26 +1.54% SOX Index 593.93 566.51 +4.84% Value Line 390.43 385.27 +1.34% MS Growth 530.56 530.66 -.02% MS Cyclical 563.74 536.67 +5.04% T - Bill 3.52% 3.52% UNCH Long Bond 5.63% 5.75% -12 BP Gold - Oz-Near Month $267.60 $266.60 +$1.00 Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.31 $4.27 +$.04
Economic News: ==============
Nothing Too Surprising Last Week - Lots Of Noise In The Data Job Outlook Not As Grim As Claims Data - No Price Pressures Soft Landing And Second Half Recovery Still Best Bet
*May Consumer Credit rose $6.5 billion - +4.9% rate
*Wholesale Inventories rose +.2% in May - Sales fell -.1%
*Richmond FRB Shipments index unchanged in June at -20
*Jobless Claims rose +42,000 to 445,000 - Four Week Moving Average rose +2,500 to 410,750 - See Below
*Producer Price Index fell -.4% in June - Core Index - Excluding Volatile Food & Energy, rose +.1%
*June Retail Sales rose only +.2% - Ex Autos fell -.2% May revised upward to +.4% from +.1%
*Univ. of Michigan Mid-July Sentiment 93.7 - Trend Intact
Although the stock market was very volatile last week, reacting to second quarter preannouncements, the more important concern should be forward looking. The rationale is simply that the stock market is a discounting mechanism, and what counts, or should count, is the outlook for later this year and into 2002. And none of last week's reports would cause us to alter our outlook for a soft landing and an accelerating economic growth rate toward year end.
Last week's worst report was clearly Jobless Claims, but there was a lot of noise in the data. For instance, the auto industry was closing plants for their traditional summer shutdown, and it is hard, if not impossible to adjust for this specific event. However, the largest increase was from the State of Michigan, so the jump in claims clearly was impacted by the auto industry shutdown. We just don't know the magnitude, but it would appear to be meaningful.
The Retail Sales report also was a little "sloppy" - at least on the surface. A gain of +.2% is hardly robust, but the revision to May was quite large, and if the numbers are smoothed, sales were "ok" - but not great.
Supporting that assertion was anecdotal evidence from many retailers. Specifically, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, the " ... Goldman Sachs Retail Sales Index of 39 stores, weighted by sales, rose 2.0% in June, beating a 1.4% forecast." For May the same index rose just .7%. But, again, the devil is in the details.
As noted, the index is weighted by sales, with, surprise surprise, Wal-Mart being the heavy hitter - and Wal-Mart had a great June as comparable store sales rose +6.9%. In general, department stores did not fare as well, so the inference is that basic needs buying was maintained, but that more discretionary purchases were soft. Overall, the all important consumer sector appears alive, and well, but just not kicking in high gear.
However, as regular readers know, we have long believed that the tax rebate checks will be spent, and they will begin arriving soon - depending upon social security number. And, the last of the checks won't be mailed out until the end of September. So, the spending impact should be spread out for the remainder of the third quarter.
While I don't want to try to "spin" this too closely, the timing does appear important as retailers generally gear up for Christmas based upon their most recent sales experience - in this case back-to-school and early fall. So, the added impetus from the tax rebates could have a secondary, and positive, impact.
In any case, the normal lagged response to monetary policy should begin, which combined with fiscal stimulus, should be sufficient to assure the soft landing, and the beginning of recovery later this year. By early 2002, with any luck at all, the growth rate should have recovered to just below non-inflationary trendline rates - or approximately 3.0%.
That may not be enough to meet expectations of those making big bets on cyclical names, but it should preserve a favorable backdrop for financial asset prices. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: =========================================
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