Gazprom (OGZPY) is in part being driven down by fears that the EU will dismantle NORD STREAM 2 pipeline in response to the recent poisoning of the Russian opposition leader.
But, the largest gas producer in the world is too big to fail.
NORD STREAM 1 connects Russia with Germany via the floor of the Baltic. Unfortunately JewmeriKa is stirring shit in the Ukraine and it would be best for Russia to cut out the need for a middleman. Russia committed to using its own resources to help Gazprom complete Nord 2 in part because the amerikan neobolsheviks began to fuck with western contractors working on the pipeline. On seeking alpha, posters even suggested that the poisoning of the Russian opposition was a deep state trick. I wouldn't be surprised.
Anyway, NORD STREAM 2 or not, OGZPY will eventually thrive again. Here are the reasons why:
1. Despite low NG prices and a decline in 34% decline in revs YOY, Gazprom is still making a margin.
2. OGZPY can dramatically cut capital expenditures now that it has completed the Siberian pipeline to China.
3. American LNG cannot compete with Russian Natty on price. Gazprom will eventually take back most NG business
I think we are near the OGZPY ADR price low.
Also, consider GZPFY yields > 15% and a 50% payout policy is being implemented after 2021.
