Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
ENTA soared on expectations for the COVID program, but lately investors have (unduly, IMO) downgraded everything related to COVID as though the virus will just disappear.
Meanwhile, ENTA’s RSV program has taken longer than originally anticipated to develop, due to a low incidence of RSV infections during the pandemic, which has slowed patient enrollment in ENTA’s RSV trials.
See #msg-172945060 for related info on valuation.
Trying to understand this stock that I had a position in in 2020. At the time, it had a very promising pipeline.
This was $74 in Nov 21, and now it sits below $10. Can someone please express their opinion on what went wrong? It can’t be just a depression in biotech.
Thanks
Not to my knowledge.
Are any clinical programs being discontinued, to your knowledge? You didn't reply to my post in #msg-172923766.
Make sense, they are mainly in waiting mode, pending patent lawsuit result and potential partnership deal
Not sure how can Enta trade this low with so much option values plus cash
My post did not consider the posted positions, only those let go from existing roles. A total of 21 across almost all areas, mostly science roles , a few G&A.
Lots of speculation. I did notice that Jay did not participate in the last chat, but instead allowed his study to take it solo. I accept that as a natural progression of responsibilities and I recall seeing it previously with Ada shortly before she left.
I do not have enough information on this to know what is accurate. For the time being I trust that JK2016 is correct or that he made a mistake and his trusted source was the job postings on the Enanta site being removed. Could be that they were filled. I was concerned about the stated jump to a non virology initiative, but I cannot see hyping it and then abandoning it especially as the study did mention it in the most recent chat. Observing.
while a buyout could happen at any time, I feel like the for sale sign will be up next year if RSV trial(s) fail* and no progress w the covid PI. At that point the company would be wise to shut things down, and the value is the cash + royalty stream + the lawsuit as a wildcard. In this scenario you want to maximize the cash on hand, and I think the value would be at least 18 dollars a share if this worst case comes to pass. The chairman of the board is Bruce carter and this is basically what he did with ZGEN when their recombinant thrombin inhibitor was struggling
JMO
* This assumes they get readouts for the phase 2 RSV trials. I think they will I have heard of several RSV cases now in the NYC area and one infant I know hospitalized already and it is just the beginning of traditional RSV season
DD - I also know several people who got the RSV vaccine all got the GSK FWIW
Just a guess on my part but I think the headcount reduction may not be from layoffs but from the elimination of open positions. Enanta had around 20 open positions on the careers section of their website that were recently removed. If you consider approved positions that are not yet filled to be headcount, then cutting these openings could be construed as a 15% reduction in the workforce.
Where are the layoffs coming from? ENTA does not have a lot of corporate bloat.
If your info is accurate, I presume that the early-stage research in undisclosed non-viral disease (see slide #5 at https://ir.enanta.com/static-files/0b9a9564-339c-4501-8c98-eab636846bf4 ) will get the axe.
I don’t consider VERU's drug a competitor; VERU's phase-3 trial is restricted to hospitalized patients with ARDS, which is not the market ENTA is seeking to address:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/veru-reaches-agreement-fda-phase-123000795.html
Is there anyone who knows about sabizabulin of Veru well enough? They restart their phase 3 again on Q4.23. Which looks so potent as far as I've seen.
Their mechanism of act is different so it could be whole different market, though.
I wonder if it could be ENTA's potential threat.
A reliable source.
Me too! I would like to know where u find it out, if you do not mind, sir.
The poster in question may be an ENTA employee or family member of an employee.
That might save 3.5M per year. I try to have confidence in Enanta's hiring process and not believe that they would hire any less than the best. Let's see what happens, perhaps the poster made a mistake.
“Is this typical of pre-acquisition activities?”
My thinking is more inline with cutting costs to extend their cash while they continue to execute on the business plan. I don’t envision a buyout. JMHO
I cannot find additional information on this, but I did notice several weeks ago that most of the open positions had been removed from the company's website. Can you direct me to the source for this statement of trimming the headcount.
Is this typical of pre-acquisition activities?
Correct. Only had 9 enrolled over the last 3 years.
ENTA halts enrollment/trial for RSV transplant patients
ENTA updated corporate slide set (9/12/23):
https://ir.enanta.com/static-files/0b9a9564-339c-4501-8c98-eab636846bf4
Differences between the 9/12/23 corporate slide set and the 8/7/23 version are relatively minor. (In the bullet points below, I’ve omitted mention of slides that were merely re-sequenced with no changes to the content.)
• New slide 7 has additional info about the unmet medical need for an RSV treatment.
• Regarding the EDP-938 phase-2 clinical trials, new slides 14-15 replace old slides 13-15. ENTA discontinued the RSVTx trial in immunocompromised transplant patients because there weren’t enough transplant recipients infected with RSV to enroll the trial. (The RSVPEDs [pediatric] and RSVHR [high-risk adult] trials are continuing without change.)
• Old slide 30, which showed the performance of the placebo arms in various COVID trials, has been deleted.
• New slides 25 and 26 (which had no counterparts in the old slide set) show graphs of the EDP-235 SPRINT trial’s Total Symptom Score for all 14 prespecified symptoms among all ITT patients (slide 25) and patients treated within three days of symptom onset (slide 26). These two new slides supersede old slide 26, which showed Total Symptom Score for a post-hoc subset of 6 of the 14 prespecified symptoms.
• New slide 27 has the same content as old slide 27, a graph of the time to symptom improvement for a subset of 6 symptoms, but the header has been corrected to fix a clerical error in the old slide.
I was drawn into investing thru HCV.
Gilead paid 11 billion for a fabulous asset and generated a lot of income.
The only *problem* (some thought) it was a cure, and in time the treatment numbers dropped.
Covid on the other hand spins off variants that evade current vaccines.
Thus Covid may have a longer run than initially expected and repeat customers.
W/ regards to HCV, Enanta had little leverage and didn't get a large share in HCV profits.
It may be that this recent Covid surge- if there is continued negotiation w/ a potential partner- this surge may be a benefit.
Maybe Enanta won't accept a first low ball offer.
(that's a reason I wondered if they pulled the preclinical candidate from their slides)
No announced agreement doesn't equal failure- it may mean a better offer coming.
Rising Covid hospitalizations are probably also be getting investor's attention.
Not only has the share price come up the volume is encouraging too.
we are on the same page wrt enta/luly etc
Even if the likelihood is very small, I was just speculating that perhaps one possibility for amending the pipeline in a rather peculiar way is to lower the likelihood of government scrutiny if PFE were in fact in discussions w ENTA about an acquisition. I am probably overthinking it anyway bc it would be a small transaction that almost never results in antitrust concerns, and we are talking about a super early program, which I have never seen anyone have to divest regardless of the size of the transaction.
Pavlovid weekly prescriptions have increased fourfold from their 2Q23 nadir, according to PFE’s CCO on today’s MS webcast. Weekly prescriptions are now running at about 60% of the peak 2023 level reached in January.
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1630426&tp_key=a1d42d6790
Yes if PFE were making overtures to ENTA bc they dropped their RSV-N, they want the lawsuit to go away, etc (I mean it makes strategic sense), it might be easier to not raise any scrutiny if you are also getting the only 2 PLpro projects in the wings
mind you I have never heard of FTC action for super early stage projects, or for small buyouts like this would be , but could covid be different? TBH I doubt it, but it crossed my mind bc it really doesn't make sense to announce the project earlier this year and suddenly remove it from the pipeline chart so it jsut got me thinking that is all
dewophile,
I agree with you. ENTA could just keep the product listed in development without spending any appreciable amount of money on it.
At the risk of sounding like a self serving conspiracy theorist I was just thinking it may be a bad look to let someone corner the covid market
What is your (possibly) far-fetched theory? TIA
They can pause the program and still keep it listed on their slide deck, if anything to project they still have more in the tank as the street is writing them off
I have another theory but it may be far fetched
why would ENTA drop a super early stage program in which no one is expecting to hear much for a long time from their slide deck?
If they want to signal to the market that they are further extending their cash runway dropping an early preclinical program isn't exactly going to move the needle
FYI PFE happens to be working on a PlPRO (https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-clear-creek-bio-collaborate-research-program).
The Wells Fargo chat yesterday was valuable and informative......, well, if you knew nothing about ENTA.
The questions asked were mostly about RSV.
Not a triple witching event this time and I am all ears for possible reasons.
Could Shionogi make their Xocova by Viiv Healthcare's HIV mechanism?
Thanks.
Regardless of what happens with Covid, RSV Hep B/C etc.it appears a favorable settlement could propel the stock price 2X-4X from here.
Re: PLPro program
There was no announcement, but ENTA removed the PLPro program from the pipeline chart on slide 5 of the latest slide set (https://ir.enanta.com/static-files/0b9a9564-339c-4501-8c98-eab636846bf4 ).
The PLPro program was only in the discovery phase—not yet in preclinical development—and ENTA had not even selected a lead candidate for the program. I.e., very little money has been spent to date on this program. It should be a simple matter for ENTA to reinstate the PLPro program if developments with EDP-235 warrant such an action.
The Biktarvy patent settlement you cited can be considered a lower bound for the economics of a potential settlement of ENTA’s patent suit against PFE with respect to Paxlovid, IMO.
Regarding the merits of the two cases, I don’t have an educated opinion on how they compare.
As an infused drug, GILD’s Veklury addresses a distinct market from Paxlovid and other oral antivirals.
Dew...how similar are ENTA's claims against PFE compared to GSK/ViiV's patent suit against Gilead's Biktarvy?
How likely or unlikely is the possibility that an ENTA/PFE settlement would be more or less than Gileads settlement?
Paxlovid's sales to date are substantially higher than Gilead's Biktarvy at the settlement date...are they not?
https://viivhealthcare.com/hiv-news-and-media/news/press-releases/2022/january/gsk-announces-settlement-between-viiv-healthcare-and-gilead-sciences/
Is there anyone who has an insight with Veklury of Gilead? I've just noticed its' revenue is higher than Paxlovid and Lagevrio. and it's got the FDA approval for liver patients on 24th, August.
But Enanta didn't even mention Veklury in their presentation which compares the drug efficacy.
Thank you in advance.
https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2023/8/fda-approves-veklury-remdesivir-to-treat-covid19-in-people-with-mild-to-severe-hepatic-impairment-with-no-dose-adjustment
Thank you for the update. I'm looking forward to seeing the result of this. I think this is an important issue with Enanta. Do you have any insight on this kind of case?
Is there any reference case you know? I wonder if Enanta won over Pfizer, what percentage of the Paxlovid's previous revenue could we get? Additionally, are you expecting Paxlovid to suspend sales after Enanta win?
It's on hold pending developments for EDP-235.
PLpro inhibitor? Did Enanta drop their PLpro inhibitor program? Can anyone offer any insight? Thank you in advance.
Followers
|
97
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
3181
|
Created
|
03/20/13
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators DewDiligence |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |