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Re: EDP-235 clinical-trial plans
On yesterday’s CC, Jay Luly may have slipped up by inadvertently revealing that ENTA is seeking to conduct a phase-2/3 trial for EDP-235 (rather than separate phase-2 and phase-3 trials). From the CC transcript:
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/08/09/enanta-pharmaceuticals-enta-q3-2022-earnings-call/
ENTA's EV at the current share price ($71.27) is approximately $1.4B, based on the numbers in #msg-169621216 and #msg-169621212.
ENTA’s fully-diluted share count @6/30/22=24.7M—unchanged since 3/31/22 (#msg-168831164).
The 24.7M figure above consists of: 20.7M basic shares on the 6/30/22 balance sheet (https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001177648/000095017022015515/enta-20220630.htm#consolidated_balance_sheets ); and 4.0M options outstanding at 6/30/22 (whether or not exercisable) (ibid, p.12).
ENTA’s pro forma cash @6/30/22=$329.4M—a decrease of $23.9M since 3/31/22 (#msg-168831159).
The $329.4 figure above consists of: $290.0M of net current assets on the 6/30/22 balance sheet (https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001177648/000095017022015515/enta-20220630.htm#consolidated_balance_sheets ); and $39.4M of marketable securities on the 6/30/22 balance sheet designated as long-term (e.g. bonds with a time to maturity greater than one year).
Note: Net current assets on the 6/30/22 balance sheet include the $28.7M receivable from the IRS (#msg-169620450).
ENTA is due a $28.7M tax refund from the IRS relating to NOL carrybacks allowed by the 2020 Cares Act.
ENTA hires CMO with Big Pharma credentials:
https://ir.enanta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enanta-pharmaceuticals-appoints-scott-t-rottinghaus-md-senior
ENTA FY3Q22* financials—royalty_revenue=$19.5M—6/30/22_cash=$292.7M (down from $322.5M at 3/31/22):
https://ir.enanta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enanta-pharmaceuticals-reports-financial-results-its-fiscal-32
FY3Q22 R&D expenses were $39.1M, inline with prior guidance of $150-170M for FY2022; FY2Q22 SG&A expenses were $12.9M, higher than the annualized run rate of the prior guidance of $35-41M for FY2022 (#msg-166871344) due to an increase in headcount.
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How ENTA’s Mavyret royalty is calculated
ENTA’s royalty rate on Mavyret sales from ABBV is tiered, as shown in the table in #msg-142808661. The royalty rate is applied to the 50% Glecaprevir component of Mavyret (a 2-drug combination). The royalty tiers reset at the start of each calendar year (like tax brackets), so ENTA’s royalty rate is highest in the fourth calendar quarter (ENTA’s fiscal* Q1) and is lowest during the first calendar quarter (ENTA’s fiscal* Q2).
*ENTA’s fiscal year ends on September 30.
Elaborating on #msg-169566734, the MoA of EDP-235 could not be simpler: EDP-235 stops SARS-CoV-2 viral replication. If the next EDP-235 trial (either phase-2 or phase2/3—see #msg-169566784) has a well-chosen endpoint and an appropriate patient pool (e.g. rate of hospitalization, compared to placebo, in high-risk patients), EDP-235 is a big favorite to show meaningful efficacy. To put it another way, ENTA (and a potential partner) would have to screw up royally for EDP-235 to not be successful in the next trial.
p.s. The above may not be entirely clear to investors who are unfamiliar with clinical development of antiviral drugs. This is probably why ENTA’s recent 40% pop occurred over the course of a week rather than in a single day.
Thank you Vin and Willy. - this makes sense “the MOA of Covid protease inhibitors is well defined”
So do we know for certain that the MOA of ENTAs drug identical?
Crazy good call. I actually bought a little more last Thursday at 48. Wish I bought more than I did.
willyw, sorry I didn't see your response before I posted. Nice job.
From Enanta;
"Antiviral treatment for RSV, including EDP-938, has the greatest potential to show optimal efficacy in high-risk populations, as these patients have reduced RSV immunity which manifests in a longer duration of viral shedding and greater disease severity, allowing a bigger window to realize the full potential of EDP-938. Moving forward, our broad clinical development plan will focus on evaluating EDP-938’s potential in populations with the greatest unmet need, namely those who are at high-risk for severe disease, including pediatric patients, immune compromised, and a high-risk adult population."
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Think of covid. Where is the business - what population group? The high risk.
Let me reframe "did not meet the primary endpoint in a Phase 2b clinical trial" as
failed to differentiate the treated group (those intentionally infected) to other healthy.
I think that it's because the normal healthy group recovered so quickly that there was little differentiation between the two groups.
The real question is whether the Enanta RSV drug (EDP-938) will create a differentiated response in the higher risk groups with weakened immune response and more attenuated recoveries.
Look at Paxlovid and covid.
What if you attempted to prove Paxlovid worked by comparing it to groups of covid infected "healthies" who were asympotmatic and who recovered quickly? You could easily conclude that Paxlovid didn't work due to the lack of differentiation.
Here is what the trial did show;
"Final data available from all high-risk patients enrolled in EPIC-HR study (n= 2,246) confirmed prior results of interim analysis showing PAXLOVID™ (nirmatrelvir [PF-07321332] tablets and ritonavir tablets) reduced risk of hospitalization or death by 89% (within three days of symptom onset) and 88% (within five days of symptom onset) compared to placebo; no deaths compared to placebo in non-hospitalized, high-risk adults with COVID-19"
That's the way that I interpreted it.
Enanta took data where they could get it, but by no means was it going to be a trial that was going to be where the bulk of their business would be or on a group that would see the most benefit.
That's my quick take on it and there are many here far more sharp than I am.
I could be wrong. But I have to wonder if many on twitter who called the trial results a whiff or a failure are reading it right. Like you, I'm curious myself of other's interpretation of the results.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03691623?term=EDP-938&cond=RSV&draw=2&rank=2
Was the risk any different for their RSV drug?
respiratory syncytial virus did not meet the primary endpoint in a Phase 2b clinical trial. The therapy did not reduce symptoms when compared to placebo;
Appreciate the input??
How many drugs get thru phase 1 with that type of data and never get approved or take a few years at minimum to get approved. There is still a fairly high degree of risk.
Thanks dew. Seen that info on twitter and didn’t check into much because I’m in Belize diving.
Wishing ENTA well. I will probably miss out on a lot of ENTA gains or maybe never have a chance to get in because I’m waiting for some patient results that show the drug works.
It would be nice to see this drug work. While I’m here I found out my daughter who has trisomy 21, OCD and Autism got Covid. She has been vaccinated and boosted but she is also in the high risk group. Kept her away from Covid for 2 years literally the dayI leave she tested positive. Trying to get Pax for her.
R
I hope you are right. You sure nailed the other call; up $5.50 last Friday and up $4.50 today. 10 bucks in two days and 7 more days to go till earnings.
Biden is still positive for covid.
The rebound may be getting more attention than it would have a month or two earlier.
It may create a sense of urgency in tracking what the ideal dosing period is.
I hate to say.... or I have to say carefully---- It is good that they will have another decent or better antiviral to test against the Paxlovid benchmark. They are bound to learn a lot.
If Luly can provide some color on what the approval process is it would be great.
By no means do they seem to have this pandemic under control.
ENTA is up over $3 today. I figured the rise over the release of the safety data on friday would continue this week. The questions remaining in my mind are how many days in a row will the stock price rise, and will it get to the mid $60s or, dare I say it, get back to $70 before the earnings report is released?
Shionogi’s S-217622 has some issues:
#msg-168536263 teratogenicity
#msg-169462279 efficacy not proven
More info on S-217622 than you probably wanted to know:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.26.477782v1.full
Conclusions
• Data presented in Ph1 first-in-human study indicate that S-217622 was well tolerated in healthy individuals, and the pharmacokinetics evaluations highlighted the potential for once-daily administration
• In Ph2a, treatment with 5-day oral administration of S-217622 demonstrated a rapid clearance of SARS-CoV-2 and was well tolerated in patients with mild-to- moderate or asymptomatic infection
• The results support further clinical development of S-217622 through large-scale clinical studies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate or asymptomatic SARS- CoV-2 infection
https://www.shionogi.com/content/dam/shionogi/global/investors/ir-library/presentation/2022/ECCMID%20Ph1_2a%20presentation%20final2.1.pdf
Yesterday was a great day for Enanta.
I'm sure that the Earnings call will shed more light on the covid development plan.
Covid isn't going anywhere. Covid is evading vaccines, and other troubling issues like reinfection, long covid and additive damages from reinfections suggests we need a better antiviral.
It also seems that problems with viral rebound are happening (Paxlovid -too weak or too short a duration??)
Recent virus strains are evading vaccines.
Many doctors are hesitating to prescribe due to the complicated nature of drug interactions w/ Ritonavir.
So the emergency isn't really quite over- infections are once again rising.
There is a need for a faster pathway to approval for EDP- 235
The last thing on the sheet I really liked?
"Select third mechanism for HBV combination regimen with EDP-514" (in 2022)
I believe that Enanta has reinforced confidence in their capabilities with antivirals.
If they can come up with a third compound for HBV......
ENTA’s updated corporate slide set—(including new EDP-235 info):
https://ir.enanta.com/static-files/fb5db89a-b15b-4820-9e77-b8c5b087f869
Slides 17-21 pertain to EDP-235. Slide 20 shows comparative potency vs other agents.
Agreed. EDP-235 is plainly more potent than Paxlovid. And without the manifold drug-drug interactions consequent to ritonavir, EDP-235 should be considerably safer than Paxlovid too.
The clean safety profile of EDP-235 is the biggest news in today's dataset. That's because the MoA of EDP-235 is well understood, so efficacy at the doses selected for phase-2 is almost a fait accompli.
ENTA’s PR on EDP-235 phase-1/1b data:
https://ir.enanta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enanta-pharmaceuticals-announces-positive-data-phase-1-clinical
Based on these positive safety and PK results, ENTA is advancing the 200mg qD and 400mg qD doses (without ritonavir boosting) to phase-2, which is expected to start in 4Q22.
Yes, as far as I know.
Are we due for a PR today or tomorrow on EDP235?
All of those reasons plus the scary stuff people some people are writing about Omicron BA.5.
ENTA broke $51 this morning. The stock price dropped to just under $39 in mid June. This rebound could be a delayed response to the the law suit for patent infringement against PFE, anticipation of the phase I safety data for their Covid-19 protease inhibitor EDP-235, a general rebound after a long decline or all three. We should soon know about the phase I data as ENTA is expected to release that data this month.
The Canada approval is for the pediatric market (age 3-11). Mavyret was already approved in Canada for adults and adolescents.
I just saw that Canada approved the use of Maviret and stated that ~250,000 patients are in this category. I wonder if Canada is just late to the party or whether they are early so a new substantial patient population may soon be realized in many countries.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maviret-glecaprevir-pibrentasvir-approved-health-120000965.html
Wow!
Thanks for providing the link as it gets into the specifics of the suit.
Even so it is difficult for me to clearly see what the courts will decide.
One must assume that Pfizer must have some sort of IP and response.
I am reminded of Gilead being sued for Sovaldi.
This is going to be a nail biter.
I hope that it has a Hollywood ending for Enanta investors.
It may be as simple as Enanta was the first to patent. The Pfizer PI entered trials spring of 2021.
(ENTA)—PFE’s guidance for 2022 Paxlovid sales is $22B, of which a substantial portion is from the US market.
If ENTA’s patent suit resulted in even a low-single-digit royalty on US sales of Paxlovid, it would amount to a very sizable payday relative to ENTA’s existing enterprise value.
Addendum—ENTA is not seeking an injunction against Paxlovid, which would be morally deplorable. Rather, ENTA is seeking monetary compensation for the alleged patent infringement.
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