Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
avoiding big selloffs but missing big rallies. imo this has always been the hard part between not pursuing knife catching by waiting for indicators to turn up, but then not missing the huge moves that occur before they do.
I have made many mistakes and am always learning but my current work avoids rushing into buys when vix is way above long term average and scales into buys rather than always go full in.
There is never going to be any perfection in buys and sells, the key is to work with the least imperfection possible, concentrating on capturing as much as possible as often as possibe
Duma, thanks for your very kind offer, I will PM you. I understand your point about VTO buys. I just wanted to add that in a trading range market such as we have had over the last year sometimes the QQQ will make a lower low after a VTO buy. Therefore it is prudent to take the majority of profits on a close above RSI 49 and reload upon a retracement. Using the MACD filter should permit you to hold VTO buys longer but you would have missed all of this year's VTO trades.
Excellent idea Duma as the plot of the SSO is not directly related to the plot of the $NYAD/SAR and only serves to complicate the chart.
Duma, very good, thanks for the eye candy link too.
thanks jonr. i see what you mean sso is not needed.
Agree with your interpretation of the chart. I also don't see what volue the SAR adds. It is too whippy. The Stoch and Williams indicators together do a good job.
Thanks spd. I usually don't look at BBs, but they do alert you to a coming big move . . . I'll have to see if I want to incorporate this.
gloe
I'll have to check out that strategy. Not interested in the colored volume bars, though.
Thanks.
gloe
Sammy, I don't think there is any relationship between the placement on the chart between SSO and $NYAD/SAR. One has a scale on the left and the other on the right. Their relative position is just a function of the range of each of the plots. Change the time frame and their relative positions will change. I would suggest taking SSO off the chart, it adds nothing and just makes the chart harder to read.
You referred to SSO candlesticks in your comment about the whipsaw. SSO is plotted as the pink line. The candlesticks are nyad. As I said above, take SSO off the chart.
I am not sure how this is going to turn out, but here is the chart will SSO moved above the price scale. Since you don't have SC I would be surprised if you could see the 5 min time frame, but you should see something.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=1&id=p28283695502&a=242185315
Gloe > yes it can be done starting with something like this
then do the color change code to what ever parameters, I have
no interest in doing that but if you want BB's you might want
to save this one
==========================================================
#
# SJ_EMATrippleBollinger
#
input Price = close;
input Displace = 0;
input Length = 20;
input Deviation1 = 1.0;
input Deviation2 = 2.0;
input Deviation3 = 3.0;
#
def sDev = stdev(data = Price[-Displace], Length = Length);
#
plot MidLine = ExpAverage(data = Price[-Displace], Length = Length);
#
plot UpperBand1 = MidLine + Deviation1 * sDev;
plot UpperBand2 = MidLine + Deviation2 * sDev;
plot UpperBand3 = MidLine + Deviation3 * sDev;
plot LowerBand3 = MidLine - Deviation3 * sDev;
plot LowerBand2 = MidLine - Deviation2 * sDev;
plot LowerBand1 = MidLine - Deviation1 * sDev;
#
MidLine.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(9));
UpperBand1.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(0));
UpperBand2.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(4));
UpperBand3.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(5));
LowerBand3.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(5));
LowerBand2.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(4));
LowerBand1.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(0));
the sto and william are confirmations, but i look at the candlesticks of sso and the pink line which i think is the spx. there was a point at the end of the day where the pink line went under the $nyad but the sso candlesticks didn't so it gave a whipsaw.
I see, not something I can duplicate with what I am using. I'm sure there's a way to do it in TOS if I learned a different language and became a programmer.
User defined threasholds of 3.25 for narrow and 7 for wide on the QQQ. (NinaTrader Bollinger Triple State)
Glad you're around Duma to keep all these good ideas straight.
Sammy, FSC can plot $NYAD also, but I do not believe that FSC can do two plots with actual values. But I don't see this as a problem. SSO was only on the chart for reference, it was not used in the signals.
Based on the notations on the chart, he clearly notes the buys and sells based on SStoc, Will, and the $NYAD. Don't know which of the three or how he used the three to make a final decision. If you know that the SStoc and Will are conformations, okay.
Murray, I have data back to 1996 and did extensive back testing in 2006 with the different RSI levels. That is where the 29/49 limits came from. I really don't feel a need to do it again. I would be glad to give you my data base and excel file if you would like to work with it. It has options for any RSI level trigger for buy or sell and trade at close or open. I am pretty happy with where we are and just don't really want to put anymore time into it at this point.
I think you missed the point about the possibility of not selling VTO at 49. When VTO gives a buy, I have no other TA that is giving a buy, because VTO is not based on TA's reversing, but just absolute levels. At the other end when VTO is giving a sell signal, the reverse is now in full gear and all the TA's are giving buy signals. Many times I have seen very minor pull backs at the RSI49 level and then prices continue their march upward. Gloe said she had seen the same thing. However if you want to stick to the standard VTO which has proven to be a winner that is fine. I was only suggesting that using a broader look at indicators might lead to a higher profit. If you don't momentum trade then I would understand your comment.
I have often thought about why nobody looked at VTO for shorts also, but never took the time to do it myself. It sounds like you are about there. Would love to see some results by trade.
For the present I plan to trade VTO using the MACD filter that gloe presented a few days back. Glad to see you still carrying the torch for improving VTO.
hi jonr
i think the main trigger is $NYAD on the 5 min chart, the slow stoc and william are just confirmations. I don't have stockcharts so I can't trade it. does freestockcharts have that symbol $nyad where you can overlay it like he did?
if freestockcharts.com can overlay it then i might use it otherwise i might subscribe to stock charts and check it out for a month or 2.
regards,
sammy
Will have to study this some more. What makes the Blue BB and red BB?
Sammy, that is an outstanding chart. While the Slow Stoc and Williams%R are the triggers, notice how nicely the other TA's confirm the trades. I added it to my SC list and will use in the back ground next week to comfirm what I am doing.
I traded y, so I know first hand how the day went. It was not a great day for day trading, but even though, your chart showed all the turns nicely.
I have been using my own 3min chart (SC cannot do 3min) w/ Stoc (33,10,10) and spd's chart set at 233ticks. My two charts and your posted chart all give the same signals.
As I have said many times, it doesn't matter what TA's you use as long as they give the signals in the time frame that you are looking for. I think the chart you posted has lots of possibilities. I will convert it into a 3min chart on FSC this weekend and see what it says to me.
Are you using the chart or planning to? Thanks for chart.
Jon
jobs at 08:30, been playing but in cash at moment
Not holding overnight at the present. Went long about 8 y and then reversed for the ride down at just after 10. Was distracted so missed the best exit. First day of some decent intraday action this week.
PopZ n DropZ into 2012 > more insanity to come
just don't be on the wrong side of it
It won't make sense on the charts
Not much left for day trading so far this week. If you didn't have the direction set at the close, not much left after the open.
Date____ Open Close C-O O-C
12/30/11 74.12 73.75
01/03/12 75.68 74.97 1.93 -0.71
01/04/12 74.58 74.56 -0.39 -0.02
Total___ 1.54 -0.73
call it a Gap Fill, that was fast
never a dull moment in this market, roll dice
thanks Duma, nice to see.
That's what I was thinking.
Gotta go. I do volunteer work on Wednesdays till about 2 PM.
gloe
Duma, care to show your MACDs of which you speak.
<<<<<<I also have a weekly chart where I use two different MACD's, one for selling and one for buying that works pretty good. I have adopted the strategy of being slow to sell, but faster to buy. This avoids a lot of whipsaws and gets one back in the market fast after a sharp dip.>>>>>>>
I took using SPX MACD as a given. Too much volatility would mess up the indicator I think.
Yeah, I don't know which chart to base the signals on. USing SPX for the weekly MACD might be a good idea, as IWM and even QQQ might leave you out of too many trades. Just thinking outloud here.
gloe
Sounds great, we will watch for the next buy.
One more thought, all of the VTO history is based on Q's. For even the last buy, Q's got a buy signal, but IWM didn't, however both rallied nicely. Because of the volatile nature of IWM, I am just not sure of buy signals based on IWM. For the present I will still use Q's for my signals but trade IWM/TNA.
As I read the never ending dribble of articles about Europe where each article sounds like the market is going to freeze up in the next 5 minutes, I saw the following quote and thought it was applicable.
"Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought."
"However, I have noticed several times that by the time VTO gets to a sell signal all the normal indicators are saying buy, so in reality VTO can become a great swing strategy to catch the bottoms when nothing else sees them and then stay with the rally.
"
So true. I always had a "problem" with the VTO strategy, because it was too quick to buy in a strong downtrend and too quick to sell in an uptrend. If you can filter out the bad buys, and stay in trades that continue to work, it's really a winner!
gloe
Gloe, I think that your idea is great. The chart clearly shows that 2008 is different than all the other years. I think adapting MACD > 0 as a VTO filter makes a lot of sense.
It looks like there might have still been a buy or two in the May 2008 time frame that could have turned out bad, but one bad trade is much better than a year's worth.
As far as missing the rally off the bottom, I don't see that as a problem. VTO is not designed for rallies. VTO is a hit and run strategy for pullbacks.
However, I have noticed several times that by the time VTO gets to a sell signal all the normal indicators are saying buy, so in reality VTO can become a great swing strategy to catch the bottoms when nothing else sees them and then stay with the rally.
I also have a weekly chart where I use two different MACD's, one for selling and one for buying that works pretty good. I have adopted the strategy of being slow to sell, but faster to buy. This avoids a lot of whipsaws and gets one back in the market fast after a sharp dip.
I was looking at this guy's chart: http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2012/1/3/obvztSPX_new_year.jpg
It is a weekly SPX chart. It looks like you could buy dips when the MACD lines are above the zero line. When below the zero line, the market is in the middle of a strong sell off. Of course, if you filter out VTOs this way, you miss the start of the big rally off the bottom. C'est la vie.
Thanks for helping cyn.
Just for completeness, I wanted to publish Dec results for SR60. A lot of trades for not much gain. There just wasn't enough movement during the month to generate any real gains. Date T L/S Price Gain % C Gain IWM
I am going to do a mix of SR60 and intraday trading in 2012, so I will not be publishing results. I will keep the graphs in the iBox but I will not mark up.
SR60
MoBeg L 73.73 -.10 -.14% -0.14% -0.14%
12/2 3 S 73.63 -1.13 -1.53% -1.67% 1.40%
12/5 10 L 74.76 -.15 -.20% -1.87% 1.19%
12/5 2.5 S 74.61 -.08 -.11% -1.97% 1.30%
12/6 2 L 74.69 -.43 -.58% -2.54% 0.72%
12/7 open C 74.26 .00 .00% -2.54% -0.04%
12/7 10 S 73.70 -.37 -.50% -3.02% 0.46%
12/7 C 74.07 .00 .00% -3.02% 0.12%
12/8 10 S 73.82 .87 1.18% -1.88% -1.06%
12/9 10 L 72.95 1.59 2.18% 0.26% 1.10%
12/12 10 S 74.54 -.37 -.50% -0.24% 1.60%
12/12 C 74.91 .00 .00% -0.24% -0.41%
12/13 2 S 73.43 1.91 2.60% 2.35% -3.00%
12/15 12 L 71.52 .56 .78% 3.15% -2.24%
12/16 1 S 72.08 -.83 -1.15% 1.97% -1.11%
12/19 open C 72.91 .00 .00% 1.97% -1.17%
12/19 10 S 72.87 .31 .43% 2.40% -1.59%
12/20 open C 72.56 .00 .00% 2.40% -1.06%
12/20 10 L 72.95 .23 .32% 2.72% -0.75%
12/21 11 S 73.18 -.37 -.50% 2.21% -0.25%
12/21 C 73.55 .00 .00% 2.21% -0.09%
12/21 3 L 73.66 .60 .81% 3.04% 0.72%
12/28 10 S 74.26 .14 .19% 3.24% 0.53%
12/29 11 L 74.12 -.37 -.50% 2.72% 0.03%
MoEnd 73.75
Sorry to take so long to respond, forgot about your post. Nice try. After trying several things, I have given up. I am going to just let the mood of the market dictate when I will not take a trade. I remember 2008, it was clearly a bad time.
Thank you cyn, I think I forgot to delete plot date=close at first. Works fine, thanks also to gloe.
LKB, make sure you delete "plot Data = close;
Then cut and paste the following into the NewStudy window. I just tried it and got no errors. This is Gloe's work below :
#HFE CCI 14 Identifies when the CCI 14 has a Hook from Extreme (HFE): a hook from overbought or oversold, by finding when the CCI has crossed over or under a specified value. Values below -200 indicate an oversold position; Values above +200 indicate an overbought position.
#Length: The number of bars used to calculate the CCI (Default is 14)
#crossingType: Defines whether to apply the study when the CCI has gone above or below the specified threshold and then recrosses the threshold (Default is above)
#threshold: Index value to be crossed (Default is -200)
input length = 14;
input crossingType = {default above, below};
input threshold = -200;
plot signal = Crosses(CCI(length = length).CCI, threshold, crossingType == crossingType.above);
signal.DefineColor("Above", GetColor(4));
signal.DefineColor("Below", GetColor(4));
signal.AssignValueColor(if crossingType == crossingType.above then signal.color("Above") else signal.color("Below"));
signal.SetPaintingStrategy(if crossingType == CrossingType.above
then PaintingStrategy.BOOLEAN_ARROW_UP
else PaintingStrategy.BOOLEAN_ARROW_DOWN);
I just closed down TOS. What word DOWN???? Why don't you copy and paste the whole thing? Is anything highlighted in Red? If so, you made a mistake somewhere. If not, it should work.
I've been working all day. Try to copy and paste again. The whole thing.
Over and out.
I started with a blank slate as per spdpro.
I copied and pasted after the word DOWN........... or is that not the correct place to start the code copy.
Did you change something? Look at what is highlighted in red. Mine is working, so I don't know what to suggest.
Followers
|
321
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
79025
|
Created
|
04/06/04
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
As of Oct 2013 I made a major shift in my trading to Phase Charts. I then stopped all my trading with SR60 and F85 although I still use the signals with Phase Trading when the timing is right. I feel that this is a good time to stop using this board to describe and document my trading. This board has operated very well of late as a general board and I like that. I plan to continue posting my general comments on this board just as before, but starting today, Oct 28, I will post all my comments about Phase Trading on a new board that I have created, CYCLE TRADING.
In Dec 2010, this board was given a new name. It was formerly the CSG board for the people from Clearstation (CS). The aim of this board is to openly share our trading methods, and help each other make money. It is important that all posters are respectful and while questions may arise about what is posted, responses should never turn personal. You are encouraged to post charts or other visuals to share your ideas. All ideas on this board are free to use or share as you see fit. No subscriptions needed. If what you learn here helps you, please give to the charity of your choice.
How to post charts to iHub
Trading School - Great Reference for Patterns, Indicators, etc
Economic Calendar
Economic News Calendar
Bloomberg Calender
Zero Hedge
Bespoke
finviz futures
forexpros futures
Futures Summary-Live
Forex Market
Option Pain Calculator
Dividend Investor
Dividend History IWM
Disclaimer: Several trading systems will be presented and discussed on this board over time. While it may appear that the systems are successful, that is no indication that they will be successful for you. You alone are responsible for doing your own due diligence to prove to yourself that you can be successful with a trading system. No one who presents their views of how to trade can be responsible for your success or failure.
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |