Direxion 3X Russell Funds (TNA)

[3xBuBu]

today's black candle sweep out previously 2 section gain,
enter descending mode officially next week, JMHO

[dalcindo]

Wow ... All sell across the board ... all the way. Amazing.

D.

[3xBuBu]

Sell Confirmed

[dalcindo]

Re: SPX - 1150 Area = Solid Historical Resistance

Another angle viewing the SPX contraction at this point may be explained by its relative position to mid SEP 2008 (support broke) and early OCT 2008 (support-turned-resistance held), where SPX stuttered around the 1150 area.

Correspondingly, VIX (here, used inversely for comparative analysis with SPX) spiked sharply and declined very shallowly, leaving doubt as to whether overhead resistance @ 1150 is of any further significance for the time being:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: SPX - Bearish per Expansion/Contraction Model:

Yikes! The relative strength lines have completed a maximal expansion, calling for contraction move, which is usually associated with SPX decline. So, chart favors decline from here on.



- Dalcindo


---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
SPX forming evening star yesterday
need a confirmation today
---------------------------------
DAA

[3xBuBu]

SPX forming evening star yesterday
need a confirmation today

[dalcindo]

Re: BGU, TNA, ERX, FAS

Agreed on the whole, but seems like ERX is nearing its prior double-top peak of early NOV 2009, whereas FAS is forming a lower high.

Additionally, market may carry some "contagious" effects of well-performers, stunting further growth prospect, IMHO.

I very much like your relative strength charting of NYUPV against NYTV. It seems that the chart would potentially decipher true momental advances vs. uncommitted advances where the volume fails. Nice.

I wish there was a formula that would allow the product of the two ("NYUPV x NYTV), to highlight the amplifying effect of volume on advancing stocks as well.




D.

[3xBuBu]

$SPX - both BGU and TNA to $SPX ratio reach top per your chart,
whereas ERX and FAS still have room to grow,
daily volume advancing approaching 90% signaling peak time is near

[dalcindo]

Re: ERX - H&S Formation

Agreed. Updated chart to highlight on such formation over past 9-month period (MAR 2009), although there seem to be some smaller discreet ones as well with recent peak as same head.

ERX - 9-Month, Daily Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: SPX, NAAD, NAHL Charts:

Hi, 3x!!!

Good to get back at it with you.

I have updated the SPX chart by removing the recent (faked) "Max Expansion" off of the chart. A new high has been reached today, but I believe that the market is reaching temporary heights prior to some renewed retracement, IMHO.

First, the SPX chart itself shows that the "economic recovery" did happen "on paper", but as we enter a new decade, artificial economic stimili have been tapped out, and as of late, housing concerns are resurfacing.

Other indirect signs that the markets are likely to retrace may be discerned in the Nasdaq advancing/declining's (NAAD) and Nasdaq New High/Low's (NAHL) chart below: While NAHL is testing its overhead resistance and NAAD is dipping into the extremes of 1500-1750 area, RSI remains uncommitted to break over its long-term resistance line. Until then, the market will remain biasly bearish in my eyes, despite the great strides achieved over the past months, which I consider artificial until the recovery proves able to develop in an economy free of the kinds of incentives and interventions seen over that so called period of recovery, IMHO.

$SPX : Direxion ETFs Relative Strength - 9-Month, Daily Chart:



$NAHL & $NAAD - 12-Month, Daily Chart:

[3xBuBu]

ERX is forming inverted head and shoulder

[3xBuBu]

dalcindo, let see will SPX break the top green line or not this week, Wednesday is the critical date

[dalcindo]

Re: SPX & BGU, TNA, ERX, FAS (Direxion's BULL ETFs) - A Relative Strength View:

NOTE: BGU, TNA, ERX, FAS are all charted against $SPX. I thought it worth noting that their aggregate lines are nearing another MAX Expansion pattern, especially as SPX is also reaching a significant TOP (See also how SPX's PPO is nearing yet another validation of its own resistance at these corresponding price levels for both SPX and BGU, TNA, ERX, FAS altogether).

I believe that violation of SPX's shorter-term support (BLUE) line may provide an early signal of reversal as we lunge into the new yar 2010.



- Dalcindo

[davidam]

Market is consolidating after a big runup. When this corrects a bit its going to surge imo. BGU looks good

[dalcindo]

ECM - Direxion's Bulls, $VIX and $SPX, $COMPQ, $INDU, $RUT:

Hi, 3xBuba!

I should have posted this one last friday at the week's close to point out to a potential MAX Expansion event in this Expansion/Contraction Model (ECM), indicative of wide market contraction and price decline going forward. Still, here is the chart of Direxion's Bulls, broad indices and .

Superimposition of all three markets against price and MACD has provided me with some pretty reliable signals as the market nears or is in instance of completing a reversal.

Here, all Direxion's Bulls ETFs are expressed in relative strength against $SPX as a way to "remove" that background and emphasize that specific market segment.

Note also that as a whole, $SPX has weakened and since its decline, it has validated a channel that may or may not provide further directional guidance.

Finally, MACD is underlining that reversal with its own line cross-over and histogram zero-crossing signals. Its support trendline lacks validation for now, but it may be the target for this expected down-trend, if it continues.

See other charts below for broad market indices, $VIX crossing over its 50-EMA today for the first time since FEBRUARY 2009; and validation of $COMPQ's bearish channel:

$SPX : Direxion ETFs Relative Strength Chart:




$VIX And Synopsis of Major Indices (S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA) Chart:




$VIX And Synopsis of Major Indices (S&P 500, NYSE, Russell 2000) Chart:



$COMPQ - 36-Mo., Daily Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: Direxion's ETFs - Ready to roll ... Over?

While the ECM worked well to indicate a MAX contraction and anticipate a rally (which I was forcefully neglecting against my own ECM rules!), now comes a point where a MAX Expansion (a presage for decline) seems to be forming: All relative strength lines reached a new high, MACD is nearing a reversal, and a reversal candle points to some serious difficulty for this index (as well as for other major indices for that matter - See charts #2 and 3 here: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 ) to rally above this level.

Although it may be too early to tell right now, MACD will likely confirm any bearish reversal if and once it violates its trendline, IMHO:

Direxion ETFs: Expressed In Relative Strength Against $SPX:


D.

[dalcindo]

Re: ERX

Looking really good, agreed.

15-min chart remains in control; 200-EMA provides great support.

D.

[3xBuBu]

ERX look real good today
evening star has been formed!
your trendline acts like a charm

[dalcindo]

Re: ERX

Agreed - Coming to bearish channel's upper border. With a RSI flexing at the 60-level since rally and channel, the combo makes for a high probability for a decline at this point. The candle adds a cherry to top that, IMHO.



D.

[3xBuBu]

ERX topping,
major turn any time soon

[3xBuBu]

FAS reversing split effect
07/06/09-07/17/09

[dalcindo]

Re: ERX

ERX has got to be under the influence of a longer, predominant cycle correction. If it leaves the chart like it does, some other influence has to justify its seemingly off move, IMHO.

D.

[3xBuBu]

ERY Aug 2009 40.0000 call (ERYHH) @0.90

[3xBuBu]

ERX Aug 2009 40.0000 call (ERXHH) for 0.15
any chance?
was 42 less than a month ago

[leemalone2k3]

I try to find some cheapies.

[3xBuBu]

ERX how far will it slide?

[3xBuBu]

remember to tell us
what happen on Thursday lol

[leemalone2k3]

I've never heard of a fraction of an option. I should buy 5 calls tomorrow just to see what happens.lol

[3xBuBu]

you got me,
I never get caught like that before,
for stocks: “Odd Lot” Unit

Also as a result of the reverse splits, each Fund will have outstanding one aggregation of less than 50,000 shares to make a creation unit, or an “odd lot unit.” Thus, each Fund will provide one authorized participant with a one-time opportunity to redeem the odd lot unit at the split-adjusted NAV or the NAV on such date the authorized participant seeks to redeem the odd lot unit.
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=6396328
For options, I guess it could be the same treatment, IMO

[leemalone2k3]

I got question.
I havent played any Reverse Splits on options. So if you own these options pre split, will they be reduced by factors of 10? How are contracts that are not multiples of 10 handled? If you own 33 contracts. What happens to the fractional contracts?

[dalcindo]

Re: ERX, SSO -

ERX is looking pretty bearish for support, IMHO. However, energy has pulled it off several times before. For instance, SSO sits pretty strong at the bottom of RSI's bullish range, as if to near another rally. However, it head-butted that upper channel border and A/D line looks like it wants to real ... and then again the secondary indicators are getting taut to the oversold ... What the?

Looks like a battle ground begging for smoke to clear before the slaughter count starts, IMHO.

ERX:


SSO:


D.


-------------------------------------------------------------
Message In Reply To:

ERX at support
or breaking down to 22s

[dalcindo]

I thought I should place some for the long haul ... going into winter

D.

[3xBuBu]

ERX at support
or breaking down to 22s

[3xBuBu]

FAZ Jan 7 Call (FAYAG)
nice play and more to come into your pocket

[dalcindo]

Re: FAZ - Huge BIDs stacking up; ASKs at 5.03 just got absorbed.

Just got FAZ Jan 7 Call (FAYAG) to let some of my money sleep a little throughout this slugginsh summer - I don''t expect treading to much, so a little delta will play in my favor if it moves against me.


D.

[dalcindo]

Oh oh!!!

Timber?



D.

[3xBuBu]

FAS forming a rising wedge and getting ready for next week trading
06/15/09 - 06/26/09

19 US Biggest Bank Performance after
Stress Test Result Released in May 8 #msg-37675176
AXP BAC BK BBT COF C FITB GJM GS JPM KEY MET MS PNC RF STT STI USB WFC

[3xBuBu]

FAS not much action the past 2 weeks
6/1/09 - 6/12/09

[3xBuBu]

5/15/09-5/29/09 Week ended with a wild chose


5/04/09 - 5/15/09 Bank Stress Test Result Release Week

[dalcindo]

Very nice correlations.

D.

[3xBuBu]

FAS trading in between 8.5 to 10.75 last 2 weeks,
some of the 19 stress-tested banks (BBT KEY RF STI) were in a deteriorating mode
5/13/09 - 5/27/09



5/04/09 - 5/15/09 Bank Stress Test Result Release Week

[dalcindo]

Re: ERX

Yep, one more validation ...



D.

[3xBuBu]

ERX just touch your dotted top line today

[3xBuBu]

no doubt about it

[RonnieD]

parking into some MWN and TZA

bears in the woods :)

[dalcindo]

Yes, I see that pitch fork and channel apply relatively well in here.

If the trading positions relative to the Fibs are valid, AND if price continues to fall, I expect a serious support at the 9.08-9.12 area.

Thanks!

D.

[3xBuBu]

wow, amazing, how can you find those support levels,
FAS still stay within the uptrend channel (except its little tail)
so it is not out of the wood yet

[3xBuBu]

amazing how much FAS top 30 holding values increase since last Nov.
2009 May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . 2008 Nov
. .

[dalcindo]

Re: FAS - Another crazy TA ...

Yes, indeed. I did notice the support. Glad you mentioned it, as this triggered me to look closer into the strength of FAS' support.

At the risk of seeming way to focused on details, I could not help but project a Fib matrix to correlate different trading timeframes, and see what their relative risk exposure might be.

In essence, I discovered that today's close represents a significant Fib level for each of these trading timeframes.

First, I had to assume (as is usually the rule) that the longer the timeframe, the greater the capitalization and the tighter the risk management;

Second, I had to assume that each timeframe follows Fibonacci price developemnt from their entry positions;

And, third that a new opportunistic entry position occurred at each higher lows (or correction), from which the three Fib grids have been drawn.

If these assumptions are true, which would be for traditional technical analysts trading into each weaknesses, then the following was observed:

1 - Today's close points to a very significant overlap of at least three trading timeframes (2.5-month, 2.5 week, and 7-day positions);
2 - The 2.5-month position closed today at the 38.2% Fib retracement level;
3 - The 2.5 week closed today at the 50% Fib retracement level;
4 - The 7-day position closed at the most extreme-low 76.4% retracement level.

Overall, this convergence of important Fib levels for each timeframe points to the significance of this close, which should become SUPPORT/RESISTANCE as we go forward.

As with DRYS (See thread here: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37758534 ),where I asked to be called crazy for reading into the technicals and turning out to be correct about the likely support and expected rally.

I think that in turn, here too, there is sufficient technical evidence (to my crazy standards), to establish that tomorrow is a make-or-break for FAS, and eseentially for the aggregate financial sector it represents.

Again, call me crazy ...



FAS & Fib Matrix - 2-Mo., Daily Chart:



D.

[3xBuBu]

did you notice
FAS is still holding up by its 20 and 100 dma,
once they are broken, it will drop below 7 easily