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>>> ‘Neptune’ missile strike shows strength of Ukraine’s homegrown weapons
The Washington Post
By Adam Taylor and Claire Parker
4-15-22
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/15/neptune-ukraine-moskva/
Soon after Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, a Ukrainian defense firm used an arms show in Kyiv to unveil its latest project: an anti-ship cruise missile it called “Neptune.”
The new missile drew little attention at the time. But now it is in the spotlight after a U.S. defense official said Ukrainian forces used Neptune missiles to strike and sink Russia’s flagship Moskva war vessel in the Black Sea.
The strike on Wednesday marked a major boost for Ukraine — not only for its war effort but also for the homegrown arms industry, even as it relies on weapons donated by Western allies.
“For the Ukrainians, if they were able to sink this ship or damage it with their own Neptune missiles, that’s a point of pride, first, and a useful military capability in that they will be able to keep the Russian fleet at bay,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser for the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, foreign-made weapons have poured into Ukraine. Among them are anti-armor weapons produced in the United States, small arms manufactured in Europe and even Russian-designed antiaircraft systems.
But Ukraine is a significant arms exporter itself, with a legacy of building missiles and rockets that goes back deep into the Soviet era. Russia was once a key export market for those weapons.
In recent years, Ukrainian weapons have also been developed to fight against Russian forces.
Ukraine’s military said its forces fired Neptune anti-ship missiles at the Moskva, damaging it and causing it to sink Thursday. A senior U.S. defense official said Friday that two Neptune missiles had struck the ship.
Moscow said only that a fire onboard caused ammunition stocks to detonate, prompting an evacuation of the crew. The ship later sank because of poor weather while being towed to port, Russia said.
On Friday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that it struck the Vizar factory on the edge of the Ukrainian capital. Ukraine’s state weapons manufacturer, Ukroboronprom, said in a statement on its website that the Vizar factory was involved in the production of both Neptune missiles and Alder precision-guided rockets.
Some Ukrainians viewed the sinking of the Moskva as a key moment for the domestic arms industry.
“For the first time, a warship was destroyed by an anti-ship missile made entirely in Ukraine,” Daria Kaleniuk, executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center in Ukraine, wrote on Twitter.
Kaleniuk, a prominent activist on social media, said the reported success of the strike showed Ukraine could handle more technologically advanced weapons supplied by NATO countries.
The Neptune was in development before Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but the territory’s capture helped spur the missile’s production. The peninsula houses Ukraine’s main navy base and the Soviet-era coastal defense systems that had once protected the country from attack along the Black Sea.
The RK-360 Neptune is itself based on an old Soviet cruise missile called the Kh-35, which had been produced in the Ukrainian town of Kharkiv. The company that developed Neptune, Luch Design Bureau, was founded in 1965 and had a long history of designing Soviet missiles.
If Neptune missiles were fired at the Moskva, it would mark the first time that the weapon was used in practice, military experts say. The incident also suggests that the cruise missile, which has a stated range of about 200 miles, can evade missile defense systems such as those onboard the Russian ship.
The ship was fitted with long-range radar and an S-300 air-defense system, designed to provide protection not only for itself but the rest of the Russian fleet. Accounts from Ukrainian officials suggest that an aerial drone was used to distract the defense systems during the attack.
Ukrainian officials said last year that four countries had expressed interest in importing Neptune missile systems for their own use, with Indonesia among those that may receive the first shipment.
But there are also worries that Ukraine doesn’t have enough weapons at home.
In an interview last year, Luch Design Bureau director Oleg Korostelov said that “due to lack of funding,” his company would only be able to supply up to 800 of the roughly 2,000 missiles requested by the Ukrainian military.
“Unfortunately, our level of security is low,” he said when asked if Ukraine was prepared to defend itself against a full-scale invasion.
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>>> Putin Draws Line on U.S. Arms for Ukraine
U.S. officials say that Ukrainian missiles sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, and they fear that a brewing Russian offensive in the East could signal a more bloody phase of the war.
The New York Times
by David E. Sanger, Michael Schwirtz and Helene Cooper
4-15-22
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/15/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#putin-russia-us-weapons
Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.
Stung by war losses including a Black Sea naval flagship bristling with missiles, Russia has warned the Biden administration to stop supplying advanced weapons to Ukrainian forces or face “unpredictable consequences,” American military officials said Friday.
The Russian warnings, punctuated by a formal protest note delivered this week, were disclosed as the Kremlin’s military was massing troops and pouring armaments, including attack helicopters, into eastern Ukraine for what is expected to be the next big offensive in its two-month-old invasion of the country.
The warnings also were regarded as a sign that American military assistance to Ukraine, including a planned $800 million boost announced this week, was compounding problems for Moscow. The invasion has met unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian resistance, exposing weaknesses in Russia’s conventional armed forces.
President Vladimir V. Putin has installed a new commander to oversee the Ukraine war and has publicly suggested in the last week for the first time that Russia’s goals were limited to securing the Donbas, the section of east Ukraine bordering Russia where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting for eight years.
But first, Russian forces will have to finish taking Mariupol, a vital southeastern Ukrainian port city. Ukrainian defenders have hung on there for weeks, despite relentless bombardments that have turned that city into a symbol of the war’s destructive horrors.
In other developments:
Ukrainian officials say that they have recovered the bodies of at least 900 civilians who were killed by Russian forces as they withdrew from the Kyiv region — a toll that was likely to amplify the already mounting accusations of war crimes being committed.
Two Ukrainian Neptune missiles hit Russia’s flagship Moskva in the Black Sea, a senior defense official said on Friday, providing the first American confirmation that the sinking of the Russian cruiser was the result of a Ukrainian strike.
Ukraine’s military said on Friday that Russian forces were using long-range bombers to attack Mariupol, as they intensified their efforts to seize complete control of the southern port city.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had struck a missile factory on the outskirts of Kyiv and threatened to increase the “number and scale of missile strikes against facilities” in Ukraine’s capital in response to any “terrorist attacks and acts of sabotage” on the Russian territory.
The C.I.A.’s director said on Thursday that “potential desperation” to extract the semblance of a victory could tempt President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to order the use of a tactical or low-yield nuclear weapon.
Julian E. Barnes
April 15, 2022
Anticipating the need for coastal defense, Ukraine asked for anti-ship missiles, U.S. officials say.
WASHINGTON — For several weeks, senior Ukrainian officials in Washington and Kyiv have been telling the Pentagon they need anti-ship missiles and other coastal defense weaponry, asking the United States to help them open a new front to turn back the Russian invasion, senior U.S. officials said.
The United States responded, adding coastal defense weapons to a $800 million package announced this week. Senior Pentagon officials also requested in a meeting Wednesday that American military contractors develop proposals for additional anti-ship missiles that the U.S. could provide to the Ukrainians or American allies.
The Ukrainian strike on the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was a stark demonstration of the power of anti-ship missiles launched from the coast, and it showed, a senior Defense Department official said, that Ukraine’s requests for more such weaponry was “very prescient.”
American officials said that the Moskva was not sunk with American-made weapons, but with two Ukrainian Neptune missiles.
Russia has continued to claim that the fire on the Moskva was the result of an accident, not a Ukrainian attack.
Some American officials said that Russia remains anxious to play down Ukrainian prowess with its public. The sinking of the Moskva, officials said, showed both the power of Ukraine’s own weaponry and the strategic importance of expanding the battle from Ukrainian towns to the Black Sea, where Russia’s fleet have long dominated. The sinking of the ship is a blow to Russia’s war plans, sending an arsenal of missiles to the bottom of the Black Sea.
While few American analysts would have predicted that the Ukrainians could have sunk the Moskva, officials said at this point in the war no one should be surprised by Ukrainian capabilities, or their ability to extract high damage on the Russian military.
Before the strike on the Moskva, the senior Defense Department official said, the Russian Black Sea fleet had been able “to operate with relative impunity.”
Now, however, the Russians have already pulled back their other ships farther from the coast, another U.S. official said. That could complicate any Russian amphibious assault on Odesa. Stopping or deterring an amphibious landing remains an important objective for Ukrainian officials, and was behind their specific request for more coastal defense weaponry, American officials said.
The farther Russian ships are from the coast the more limited their support for ground assaults on Ukrainian cities will be. That could make some gun and missile attacks on Ukraine more difficult, but it will not put Russia’s more powerful missiles out of range. Ukraine’s Neptune missiles have a range of about 190 miles, far shorter than Russia’s sea-launched cruise missiles, some of which can reach 1,550 miles.
The New York Times
April 15, 2022
by Helene Cooper
WASHINGTON — Two Ukrainian Neptune missiles hit Russia’s flagship Moskva in the Black Sea, a senior Defense official said on Friday, providing the first American confirmation that the sinking of the Russian cruiser was the result of a Ukrainian strike.
Moscow had said the ship sank in stormy seas after an accidental fire caused an explosion.
The official said that American intelligence assessments say there were a number of casualties as the ship was struck but could not provide a specific number. He said that there were also some Russian sailors who survived and were seen being picked up by lifeboats.
The ship was struck about 65 nautical miles south of Odesa and moved under her own power for some time after the initial strikes, before eventually sinking on Thursday. As the only Russian cruiser of that class in the Black Sea, Moskva’s sinking is a significant blow to Russia’s war plans, the official said.
“She had cruise missiles on that ship that are now at the bottom of the Black Sea,” the official said.
April 15, 2022
David E. Sanger and Anton Troianovski
Russia warns the U.S. to stop arming Ukraine or risk ‘unpredictable consequences.’
WASHINGTON — Russia has sent a series of warnings to the Biden administration, including a formal diplomatic protest this week, demanding that it halt shipment of advanced weapons to Ukraine that could strike into Russian territory, or risk unspecified “unpredictable consequences.”
The diplomatic note, called a démarche, was sent through normal channels, two administration officials said. It was not signed by President Vladimir V. Putin or other senior Russian officials. But it was an indicator, one administration official said, that the weapons sent by the United States so far were having an effect.
It also suggested that the Russians were concerned about the new tranche of more sophisticated offensive weaponry, part of an $800 million package that President Biden announced the day after the Russian Embassy in Washington delivered the démarche.
U.S. officials said the tone of the note was consistent with a series of public Russian threats, including to target deliveries of weapons as they moved across Ukrainian territory.
Officials said the note did not prompt any special concern in the White House. But it has touched off a broader discussion inside the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about whether the “unpredictable consequences” could include trying to target or sabotage some of the weapons shipments while they are still in NATO territory, before they are handed off to the Ukrainians for the final leg of their journey. The delivery of the protest note was reported earlier by The Washington Post.
The weapons that Mr. Biden authorized this week for transfer to the Ukrainians include long-range artillery that is suited for what U.S. officials believe will be a different style of battle in the open areas of the Donbas, where Russian forces appear to be amassing for an attack in the coming days.
While Pentagon officials were insistent in the run-up to the war in February that the United States provide only defensive weaponry that would avoid escalation, the nature of Russia’s attacks — including direct attacks on civilians and nonmilitary targets — appears to have muted that debate.
Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, described in an interview at the Washington Economic Club on Thursday how he and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had reviewed weapons requests. They went over each item with their Ukrainian counterparts, talking about what the United States had in its stocks and what it could deliver quickly.
Reports by pro-Kremlin media have highlighted antitank systems and other Western weapons being used by Ukrainian forces, promoting the idea that Russia is not at war with Ukraine but with an American-led alliance seeking to destroy Russia. Mr. Biden and his aides have denied that, saying that they were trying to stay out of direct conflict with Russia and had no interest in American-engineered regime change.
In Moscow, commentators have been increasingly calling on Russia to strike Ukrainian roads and railroads to inhibit the weapons transfers. While Russia has targeted many of Ukraine’s airports, the country’s ground transportation network remains largely intact.
“The time has come not to speak, but to attack,” Viktor Baranets, a military columnist for Komsomolskaya Pravda, Russia’s biggest tabloid, said on Friday. “Train echelons must be destroyed along with the railways.”
Russia’s concern is that the accuracy Ukraine showed in hitting its most sophisticated warship — whose defenses should have been able to intercept the Neptune anti-ship missile, a derivative of a missile that was originally of Soviet design — will be extended with help from the United States.
The Russian démarche echoed the public rhetoric of officials in Moscow, who have been warning for weeks that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine would prolong the war and be met with a tough response.
It came as the level of concern among Russian officials over the impact of Western arms has been increasing, said Andrei Kortunov, the director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research organization close to the Kremlin.
“It seems the United States and the West in general are right now testing the limits of Russian tolerance when it comes to weapons deliveries,” Mr. Kortunov said. “It’s clear that these volumes are already so significant that they can affect the course of the hostilities, and this is raising concerns.”
A Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei A. Ryabkov, said on Friday that Russia was “making it clear to the Americans and other Westerners” that attempts to slow down the invasion and increase Russian losses would be “curbed in a tough manner.”
He added that NATO vehicles carrying weapons across Ukrainian territory would be “viewed by us as legitimate military targets.” His comments came in an interview with Tass, the state-run news agency.
NATO hands off weapons to the Ukrainians, so its vehicles would be unlikely to cross Ukrainian soil. But Mr. Ryabkov’s comments have heightened concerns about whether Russia would take the risk of striking inside NATO territory.
When Mr. Putin announced his “special military operation” on the morning of Feb. 24, he said that those “who may be tempted to interfere” in Ukraine would face consequences as severe “as you have never seen in your entire history.”
“No matter how the events unfold, we are ready,” Mr. Putin said at the time. “All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken.”
But seven weeks into the war, Russia has so far appeared careful not to escalate the conflict in a way that could draw NATO countries more directly — for instance, not striking weapons convoys crossing into Ukraine from Poland.
“There are still fears regarding strikes that may hit the territory of NATO member countries,” Mr. Kortunov said. “One certainly does not want to create a pretext for some further escalation.”
In a news conference this week, Mr. Putin referred to the weapons deliveries only obliquely, describing the United States as being “ready to fight against Russia to the last Ukrainian.”
“It is the essence of the current events,” he said.
David E. Sanger
April 15, 2022
Russia has sent a series of warnings to the Biden administration, including a formal diplomatic protest this week, demanding that it halt shipment of advanced weaponry to Ukraine that could strike into Russian territory, or risk unspecified “unpredictable consequences.”
Neil Vigdor
April 15, 2022
Ukraine’s defense minister seizes on Russia’s sunken flagship, calling it a ‘worthy diving site.’
Ukraine’s defense minister goaded Russia on Friday over the sinking of its flagship in the Black Sea a day earlier, suggesting that the wreck would become a popular diving attraction.
The minister, Oleksii Reznikov, posted a photo on Twitter of a scuba diver swimming with a sea turtle, seizing on the loss of the Moskva, one of the Russian Navy's largest vessels.
“A ‘flagship’ Russian warship is a worthy diving site,” Mr. Reznikov wrote in English on Twitter. “We have one more diving spot in the Black Sea now. Will definitely visit the wreck after our victory in the war. BTW, I already have 300 scuba dives.”
The cause of the naval catastrophe is disputed, with Ukraine claiming it struck the ship with missiles and Russia attributing it to an accidental fire that spread to ammunition aboard the ship. But the vessel’s loss has emboldened Ukrainians.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry further mocked Russia in another tweet on Friday over the ship’s sinking. The ministry said it wanted to remind the Russian Navy that the straits into the Black Sea were “closed for entry only.” “The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out,” it said.
Marc Santora
April 15, 2022
Russia is using long-range bombers to attack Mariupol, Ukraine’s military says.
Ukraine’s military said on Friday that Russian forces were using long-range bombers to attack Mariupol as they fight to seize complete control of the southern port city.
The remaining Ukrainian forces are holed up in two primary locations in Mariupol: at a sprawling steel plant and at the city’s port.
“The Russian Army is constantly involving additional units to storm the city,” Oleksandr Motuzianyk, the spokesman for Ukraine’s defense ministry, said at a news conference.
He claimed that “the Russians are not able to completely capture this city,” although after nearly two months of bombardment, he acknowledged that the remaining Ukrainian forces in the city face an increasingly difficult situation.
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Looks like the Russian strategy has been to take control of the eastern Donbass region, and extend that westward on the coast to form a land corridor from Russia to the Crimea (which is where the Russian Navy operates from). The next step will be to move further west on the coast to take control of the port of Odesa, which is where Ukrainian grain shipments leave Ukraine. Since Russia and Ukraine together supply 25% of the world's grain, the Russians can halt a huge chunk of the world's grain supply. Taking Odesa will give Russia complete control over Ukraine's entire Black Sea coastline, leaving them landlocked.
Meanwhile further north the idea is to take Kharkiv and then move south from there to link up with the southern coastal areas already under control. This consolidates Russia's control of all of the eastern and southern Ukraine, and then the offensive can expand westward toward Kiev. This is when a 3 prong assault on Kiev can occur, from the east, southeast, and north (from Belarus), so an overwhelming 3 prong pincer attack on Kiev.
It sounds like the early attacks on Kiev, which 'failed', were either a diversion, or else an attempt to take the capital quickly and decapitate the regime.
Jim Rickards discusses Ukraine -
>>> Rickards: I’ve Never Heard So Many Lies
BY JAMES RICKARDS
MARCH 28, 2022
https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-ive-never-heard-so-many-lies/
Rickards: I’ve Never Heard So Many Lies
All wars are full of lies. Winston Churchill famously said, “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.”
We accept that idea broadly. Secret invasion plans should be closely held. The identities of spies must be kept under wraps. New weapons and defensive tools should not be revealed because enemies will be alerted to their potential and begin offensive workarounds.
Still, just because the government has legitimate reasons to deceive the public in wartime does not mean that citizens don’t have a duty to find the truth to the extent they can.
The Russian-Ukraine kinetic war and the broader U.S.-Russian economic war are full of more lies than any public events I’ve seen in my lifetime including Vietnam, Watergate and the Iraq War.
That’s how big the lies are.
The Bodyguard of Lies
Here’s the official U.S. narrative as echoed by the mainstream media: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unprovoked, Putin’s three-day blitzkrieg of Kyiv has failed, Russian forces are bogged down and valiant Ukrainian troops are putting up a powerful defense and regaining lost ground with the help of weapons from NATO.
In this version, President Zelenskyy is the new Churchill rallying patriots against an evil dictator. All of that is either entirely or mostly false.
Here’s the real story: Russia’s invasion is the end result of 14 years of provocation by the West, including repeated declarations that Ukraine will join NATO and a U.S.-backed coup d’état in 2014 that displaced a pro-Russian president.
Russia never planned a blitzkrieg on Kyiv. That’s a Western invention intended to make Putin look like a failure. In fact, Russia is slowly and methodically taking territory in the south and east of Ukraine in order to control the seacoasts, eliminate pro-fascist elements in Mariupol and establish pro-Russian autonomous zones in Donbas.
Churchill? Really?
A full assault on Kyiv, if it ever comes, is last on the list. Ukraine may reoccupy a village here and there, but they’re losing ground in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Melitopol, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and surrounding areas.
Moreover, Zelenskyy is no Churchill.
He’s succeeded in presenting himself as a strong wartime leader, standing up to the big, bad Putin. But in reality, he’s a corrupt oligarch with millions of dollars hidden offshore. His acting skills have enhanced his propaganda efforts, but it doesn’t take much training to see how phony he is.
Innocent civilians, including women and children, are dying under his failed leadership and inability to come to terms with Putin before the invasion began. In a nutshell, Zelenskyy bet on support from Biden and the West and lost.
There is ample evidence from numerous sources to support this analysis. Some of the best sources come from Switzerland, where military experts are infuriated that traditional Swiss neutrality has been cast aside.
Most tellingly, Pentagon leaks say the same thing. The story from inside the Pentagon is that Putin is not acting recklessly but is being patient and methodical. It also says that, despite some civilian casualties, Putin is actually using a restrained approach. Furthermore, there are no signs he is preparing for the use of chemical or biological weapons.
So what about the economic sanctions? Are they working?
The Most Severe Sanctions in History
Payments in and out of Russia have been blocked. The Central Bank of Russia has been banned from the global dollar payments systems. The same is true for the 10 largest Russian banks and a long list of oligarchs and Russian government officials.
Accounts of Russian targets in Western banks have been frozen. Exports of critical technology and high-tech equipment to Russia have been banned. U.S. and European airspace has been closed to Russian airlines.
Secondary sanctions have been imposed so that if another nation like China sells goods to Russia made with U.S. technology or machines, that nation will be punished also. The list goes on.
Economic sanctions of these kinds sound powerful when they’re announced and do have some impact. But in the long run they never work. In the end, the costs are real but the effects of the sanctions are nil. It’s a lose-lose proposition.
Sanctions Against Oligarchs Are Doing Putin a Favor
Some losses are incurred by those whose accounts are frozen or whose businesses are handicapped. A few Russian oligarchs may lose their yachts, but guess what? Putin doesn’t like the oligarchs anyway.
We’re actually doing Putin a favor by clipping the oligarchs’ wings. Putin’s power comes from the military and security services, not the oligarchs.
Tellingly, the strategic goals that justified the sanctions are never achieved. At most, they are slowed down temporarily. It’s just a matter of time before the affected parties devise workarounds to the sanctions.
The bottom line is Russia has not stood still. Russian exports of critical strategic metals such as nickel, titanium, palladium and aluminum have been cut off. Russian (and Ukrainian) wheat and other grains have also been cut off.
This will result in starvation in certain parts of the world and massive food price inflation everywhere. Given the extent of these sanctions and the retaliation, the damage to world trade, supply chains and even the availability of goods will be massive.
But what about the strategic aims of the sanctions?
Sanctions Won’t Stop the Ukrainian War
Here, the sanctions are a complete failure. They have had zero impact on Russian advances on the battlefield and Russian goals in Ukraine. In fact, Putin has proved to be a master chess player as he runs rings around the sanctions.
When the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian banks, the value of the ruble collapsed. Still, oil and natural gas exports from Russia were allowed because Europe is dependent on them and the world is facing an energy shortage independent of the war in Ukraine.
Oil and natural gas are paid for in dollars. In a masterpiece of judo, Putin is now demanding that Russian oil and natural gas bought by states imposing sanctions be paid for in rubles. This mystified many. If Russia needs dollars (they do), why be paid in rubles?
The answer is that the only way for Europe to get rubles quickly is to buy them from the Central Bank of Russia using dollars. Under Putin’s plan, Russia still gets the dollars, still sells oil and natural gas but he has the added benefit of making rubles stronger because Europe has to buy them to pay for the energy exports.
Cutting off Russian exports of oil and natural gas is pointless because Russia will just sell the same energy to China and India. But the price will go up. It’s a world market, after all.
Putin’s Many Moves Ahead of Biden
This is how judo works. You use your enemy’s power against him by avoiding the main attack and turning the tables. Putin’s a judo expert in real life and he just demonstrated that he can practice it in economic warfare. The West will now be engaged in propping up the ruble after they did so much to destroy it.
Putin thinks many moves ahead on the chessboard while Biden is playing pin the tail on the donkey, blindfolded.
Sanctions ultimately harm everyday citizens and consumers most. Inflation is surging in Russia and the United States because of the sanctions. But the pain on the American people has only begun. It’s about to get much worse.
U.S. consumers and investors will suffer as prices soar, growth lags and stocks collapse.
This is all unpleasant news for Western warmongers. But it’s critical for investors to know what’s actually going on so they don’t lose money in the chaos to come.
The best information is that the war in Ukraine will last longer than most expect, will produce supply chain disruptions and will amplify the inflation that’s already present.
In the end, Putin will prevail in Ukraine, while the Ukrainian people and Western consumers will pay the heaviest price.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
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>>> Russia reframes war goals as Ukrainians advance near Kyiv
Reuters
by Gleb Garanich and Natalia Zinets
March 24, 2022
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-urges-halt-russias-assault-013425464.html
BUCHA/LVIV, Ukraine (Reuters) - Moscow signalled on Friday it was scaling back its ambitions in Ukraine to focus on territory claimed by Russian-backed separatists in the East as Ukrainian forces went on the offensive to recapture towns outside the capital Kyiv.
In an announcement that appeared to indicate more limited goals, the Russian Defence Ministry said a first phase of its operation was mostly complete and it would now focus on the eastern Donbass region, which has pro-Russia separatist enclaves.
"The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbass," said Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate.
Reframing Russia's goals may make it easier for President Vladimir Putin to claim a face-saving victory, military analysts said. Moscow had said its goals included demilitarising Ukraine. Western officials dismiss this as a baseless pretext for a war they say is aimed at toppling Ukraine's government.
Facing stiff resistance, Russian troops have failed to capture any major city in the month since invading Ukraine. Instead, they have bombarded cities, laid waste to urban areas and driven a quarter of Ukraine's 44 million people from their homes.
More than 3.7 million of them have fled abroad, half to neighbouring Poland, where U.S. President Joe Biden met soldiers from the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division bolstering the NATO alliance's eastern flank.
"Hundreds of thousands of people are being cut off from help by Russian forces and are besieged in places like Mariupol," Biden said, referring to the besieged southeastern port.
"It's like something out of a science fiction movie."
Battlelines near Kyiv have been frozen for weeks with two main Russian armoured columns stuck northwest and east of the capital. A British intelligence report described a Ukrainian counter-offensive that had pushed Russians back in the east.
"Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian forces falling back on overextended supply lines, have allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 km east of Kyiv," the report said. Both the United States and Britain have given Ukraine arms.
'UNPREPARED TROOPS'
Russia's defence ministry said 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed 3,825 wounded, the Interfax news agency reported. Ukraine says 15,000 Russian soldiers have died.
Volodymyr Borysenko, mayor of Boryspol, an eastern suburb where Kyiv's main airport is located, said 20,000 civilians had evacuated the area, answering a call to clear out so Ukrainian troops could counter-attack.
Ukrainian forces recaptured a nearby village the previous day and would have pushed on but halted to avoid putting civilians in danger, Borysenko said.
On the other main front outside Kyiv, to the capital's northwest, Ukrainian forces have been trying to encircle Russian troops in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, reduced to ruins by heavy fighting.
In Bucha, 25 km (15 miles) northwest of Kyiv, a small group of Ukrainian troops armed with anti-tank missiles was digging foxholes. A Ukrainian soldier who identified himself only as Andriy told Reuters he enlisted as soon as the invasion began.
"I told my wife to grab the children and to hide in the basement, and I went to the drafting station and joined my unit straight away," he said.
In the Vinnytsia area west of Kyiv, the Ukrainian Air Force said Russian cruise missiles hit several buildings while attempting to strike the Air Force's command in the area.
The United Nations said it had confirmed 1,081 civilian deaths and 1,707 injuries in Ukraine since the Feb. 24 invasion, adding that the real toll was likely higher.
Mariupol, a city of 400,000 before the war, has been among the worst hit by the Russian bombardment. Tens of thousands of people are still believed to be trapped with little access to food, power or heat.
Local officials, citing witness accounts, said they estimated that 300 people were killed in the bombing of a theatre in Mariupol on March 16. The city council had not previously provided a toll and made clear it was not possible to determine an exact figure after the incident. Russia has denied bombing the theatre.
The governor of Ukraine's Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said Ukrainian forces still controlled Mariupol. Around 65,000 people had fled but efforts to organise mass evacuations under ceasefires had mostly failed.
The cities of Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy in the east have also endured devastating bombardment. Chernihiv was effectively surrounded by Russian forces, its governor said.
CULTURE WAR?
Weeks of on-and-off peace talks have failed to make significant progress. In a video address late Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his troops' resistance had dealt Russia "powerful blows".
"Our defenders are leading the Russian leadership to a simple and logical idea: we must talk, talk meaningfully, urgently and fairly," Zelenskiy said.
Western sanctions have isolated Russia from global trade. President Vladimir Putin accused the West of trying to "cancel" Russian culture, including composers Pyotr Tchaikovsky and Sergei Rachmaninov, comparing it to actions by Nazi Germany in the 1930s.
China is the biggest power not to have condemned the Russian invasion and has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanctions.
But in the first big sign that Western sanctions on Moscow were hurting investment from China, sources said state-run Sinopec Group, Asia's biggest oil refiner, halted talks on a petrochemical investment and a venture to market Russian gas.
"Companies will rigidly follow Beijing's foreign policy in this crisis," said an executive at a Chinese state oil company. "There's no room whatsoever for companies to take any initiatives in terms of new investment."
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>>> Houthis escalate attacks on Saudi Arabia, striking oil facility
The Yemen rebel group launched attacks on Saudi Arabia on Friday, hitting an oil facility in Jiddah and other state institutions.
The Washington Post
By Sarah Dadouch
3-25-22
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/25/houthis-escalate-attacks-saudi-arabia-strike-oil-facility/
BEIRUT — Saudi Arabia underwent a widespread and coordinated barrage of attacks on Friday after Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched drones into the neighboring kingdom, targeting oil facilities and other state institutions, the rebel group and Saudi state media said.
The Houthis said their attacks into Saudi Arabia, which stretched over six hours, struck facilities in Jiddah belonging to state controlled Saudi-Aramco, the world’s largest oil company. The group also said it struck the capital Riyadh, two other oil refineries, Aramco facilities in the south of the country, as well as other targets in the south.
Videos spread on social media of the attack on the Jiddah oil facility, showing massive black plumes of smoke rising into the sky, dotted with occasional exploding fireballs. State TV channel al-Ekhbariya released a video of fire damage at an electricity plant in the south of the country, of firefighters putting out fires and blackened husks of concrete.
After the attacks the group’s leader, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, gave a live address on a Houthi-aligned channel. He placed, the blame for the country’s seven-year civil war on the United States, saying that Saudi Arabia is merely the “executor.”
The United States is a major arms supplier to Saudi Arabia, which has used those weapons in its war in Yemen. But under President Biden, who came into office with a promise to “step up our diplomacy to end the war in Yemen,” the United States no longer refuels coalition aircraft and has stopped supporting “offensive” operations in Yemen. However, the peace talks, now in their eighth year, are stalled.
Yemen’s Houthi militants launch new attack on UAE as conflict widens
The Iran-backed Houthi rebels took over Yemen’s capital in 2015, but a Saudi-led coalition launched a military intervention soon after to restore the country’s internationally recognized government. The war has dragged on since, causing a severe humanitarian crisis and widespread hunger.
Throughout the day, the Saudi-led coalition released several statements on the Houthi attacks as they intensified. It said the rebels had struck civilian housing, an electricity plant, and water tanks belonging to the national water company. It later acknowledged the Jiddah attack and that fires that had erupted in two tanks were under control.
The statements did not expand on the extent of the damage to the oil facilities, but said there were no casualties or effect on citizen life in Jiddah, the country’s second-most populous city. There was no immediate statement from Aramco on the extent of damage to its facility, and the effect the attack might have on its oil supply.
The coalition emphasized the danger on the global energy market, saying the Houthi attacks “are a dangerous escalation that threatens the security of energy and the backbone of the global economy.” A statement at 7:11 p.m. local Saudi time tallied the attacks at 16, and repeated that it was “practicing self-restraint for the success of the Yemeni peace talks.”
As Biden pushes for peace, Yemeni rebels ramp up strikes on Saudi Arabia
Houthi attacks into Saudi Arabia have increased in the past week. On Thursday the coalition said it destroyed two booby-trapped boats that approached oil tankers in the Red Sea. It said the boats were launched from the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen.
The Houthis also struck Saudi energy facilities in at least three cities over the weekend, prompting Saudi Arabia to issue a statement on Monday saying it would not bear responsibility for any shortages in the global oil supply and asking the international community to stand “firmly” against the Houthis to prevent attacks that “pose a direct threat to the security of petroleum supplies in these highly sensitive circumstances that global energy markets are witnessing.”
Washington has placed pressure on Saudi Arabia to boost oil production as prices surged in the wake of a U.S. ban on Russia oil imports in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Saudi leaders have grown frustrated with the United States, saying it is not doing enough to counter the Houthi threat.
Saudi Arabia’s ire grew after Biden ended the Houthis’ designation as a terrorist group on humanitarian grounds. Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates have been pushing for a reinstatement of the designation as Houthi missile attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia have expanded in the past months.
The United States denounced Friday’s attack. “Unprovoked Houthi attacks against Saudi Aramco’s oil storage facilities in Jeddah as well as attacks against civil facilities in Jizan, Najran, and Dhahran are acts of terrorism aimed to prolong the suffering of the Yemeni people,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a statement.
The United States urged the Houthis to work with the United Nations to de-escalate the conflict.
“The United States stands fully behind those efforts, and we will continue to fully support our partners in the defense of their territory from Houthi attacks,” Sullivan said. “We call on the international community to do the same.”
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>>> The Smaller Bombs That Could Turn Ukraine Into a Nuclear War Zone
The New York Times
by William J. Broad
March 22, 2022
https://www.yahoo.com/news/smaller-bombs-could-turn-ukraine-114147827.html
(Picture - A B61 Model 12 missile is prepared for acoustic testing at the Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, N.M. The explosive setting on its nuclear warhead is just 2 percent that of the Hiroshima bomb.)
In destructive power, the behemoths of the Cold War dwarfed the U.S. atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. Washington’s biggest test blast was 1,000 times as large. Moscow’s was 3,000 times. On both sides, the idea was to deter strikes with threats of vast retaliation — with mutual assured destruction. The psychological bar was so high that nuclear strikes came to be seen as unthinkable.
Today, both Russia and the United States have nuclear arms that are much less destructive — their power just fractions of the Hiroshima bomb’s force, their use perhaps less frightening and more thinkable.
Concern about these smaller arms has soared as Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the Ukraine war, has warned of his nuclear might, has put his atomic forces on alert and has had his military carry out risky attacks on nuclear power plants. The fear is that if Putin feels cornered in the conflict, he might choose to detonate one of his lesser nuclear arms — breaking the taboo set 76 years ago after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Analysts note that Russian troops have long practiced the transition from conventional to nuclear war, especially as a way to gain the upper hand after battlefield losses. And the military, they add, wielding the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, has explored a variety of escalatory options that Putin might choose from.
“The chances are low but rising,” said Ulrich Kühn, a nuclear expert at the University of Hamburg and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The war is not going well for the Russians,” he observed, “and the pressure from the West is increasing.”
Putin might fire a weapon at an uninhabited area instead of at troops, Kühn said. In a 2018 study, he laid out a crisis scenario in which Moscow detonated a bomb over a remote part of the North Sea as a way to signal deadlier strikes to come.
“It feels horrible to talk about these things,” Kühn said in an interview. “But we have to consider that this is becoming a possibility.”
Washington expects more atomic moves from Putin in the days ahead. Moscow is likely to “increasingly rely on its nuclear deterrent to signal the West and project strength” as the war and its consequences weaken Russia, Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
President Joe Biden is traveling to a NATO summit in Brussels this week to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The agenda is expected to include how the alliance will respond if Russia employs chemical, biological, cyber or nuclear weapons.
James R. Clapper Jr., a retired Air Force general who served as President Barack Obama’s director of national intelligence, said Moscow had lowered its bar for atomic use after the Cold War when the Russian army fell into disarray. Today, he added, Russia regards nuclear arms as utilitarian rather than unthinkable.
“They didn’t care,” Clapper said of Russian troops’ risking a radiation release earlier this month when they attacked the Zaporizhzhia nuclear reactor site — the largest not only in Ukraine but in Europe. “They went ahead and fired on it. That’s indicative of the Russian laissez-faire attitude. They don’t make the distinctions that we do on nuclear weapons.”
Putin announced last month that he was putting Russian nuclear forces into “special combat readiness.” Pavel Podvig, a longtime researcher of Russia’s nuclear forces, said the alert had most likely primed the Russian command and control system for the possibility of receiving a nuclear order.
It’s unclear how Russia exerts control over its arsenal of less destructive arms. But some American politicians and experts have denounced the smaller weapons on both sides as threatening to upend the global balance of nuclear terror.
For Russia, military analysts note, edgy displays of the less destructive arms have let Putin polish his reputation for deadly brinkmanship and expand the zone of intimidation he needs to fight a bloody conventional war.
“Putin is using nuclear deterrence to have his way in Ukraine,” said Nina Tannenwald, a political scientist at Brown University who recently profiled the less powerful armaments. “His nuclear weapons keep the West from intervening.”
A global race for the smaller arms is intensifying. Though such weapons are less destructive by Cold War standards, modern estimates show that the equivalent of half a Hiroshima bomb, if detonated in midtown Manhattan, would kill or injure half a million people.
The case against these arms is that they undermine the nuclear taboo and make crisis situations even more dangerous. Their less destructive nature, critics say, can feed the illusion of atomic control when in fact their use can suddenly flare into a full-blown nuclear war. A simulation devised by experts at Princeton University starts with Moscow firing a nuclear warning shot; NATO responds with a small strike, and the ensuing war yields more than 90 million casualties in its first few hours.
No arms control treaties regulate the lesser warheads, known sometimes as tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, so the nuclear superpowers make and deploy as many as they want. Russia has perhaps 2,000, according to Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, a private group in Washington. And the United States has roughly 100 in Europe, a number limited by domestic policy disputes and the political complexities of basing them among NATO allies, whose populations often resist and protest the weapons’ presence.
Russia’s atomic war doctrine came to be known as “escalate to de-escalate” — meaning routed troops would fire a nuclear weapon to stun an aggressor into retreat or submission. Moscow repeatedly practiced the tactic in field exercises. In 1999, for instance, a large drill simulated a NATO attack on Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea. The exercise had Russian forces in disarray until Moscow fired nuclear arms at Poland and the United States.
Kühn of the University of Hamburg said the defensive training drills of the 1990s had turned toward offense in the 2000s as the Russian army regained some of its former strength.
Concurrent with its new offensive strategy, Russia embarked on a modernization of its nuclear forces, including its less destructive arms. As in the West, some of the warheads were given variable explosive yields that could be dialed up or down depending on the military situation.
A centerpiece of the new arsenal was the Iskander-M, first deployed in 2005. The mobile launcher can fire two missiles that travel roughly 300 miles. The missiles can carry conventional as well as nuclear warheads. Russian figures put the smallest nuclear blast from those missiles at roughly a third that of the Hiroshima bomb.
Before the Russian army invaded Ukraine, satellite images showed that Moscow had deployed Iskander missile batteries in Belarus and to its east in Russian territory. There’s no public data on whether Russia has armed any of the Iskanders with nuclear warheads.
Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian diplomat who negotiated arms control treaties in Soviet times, said that nuclear warheads could also be placed on cruise missiles. The low-flying weapons, launched from planes, ships or the ground, hug the local terrain to avoid detection by enemy radar.
From inside Russian territory, he said, “they can reach all of Europe,” including Britain.
Over the years, the United States and its NATO allies have sought to rival Russia’s arsenal of lesser nuclear arms. It started decades ago as the United States began sending bombs for fighter jets to military bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Turkey and the Netherlands. Kühn noted that the alliance, in contrast to Russia, does not conduct field drills practicing a transition from conventional to nuclear war.
In 2010, Obama, who had long advocated for a “nuclear-free world,” decided to refurbish and improve the NATO weapons, turning them into smart bombs with maneuverable fins that made their targeting highly precise. That, in turn, gave war planners the freedom to lower the weapons’ variable explosive force to as little as 2% of that of the Hiroshima bomb.
The reduced blast capability made breaking the nuclear taboo “more thinkable,” Gen. James E. Cartwright, a vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Obama, warned at the time. He nonetheless backed the program because the high degree of precision lowered the risk of collateral damage and civilian casualties. But after years of funding and manufacturing delays, the refurbished bomb, known as the B61 Model 12, is not expected to be deployed in Europe until next year, Kristensen said.
The steady Russian buildups and the slow U.S. responses prompted the Trump administration to propose a new missile warhead in 2018. Its destructive force was seen as roughly half that of the Hiroshima bomb, according to Kristensen. It was to be deployed on the nation’s fleet of 14 ballistic missile submarines.
While some experts warned that the bomb, known as the W76 Model 2, could make it more tempting for a president to order a nuclear strike, the Trump administration argued that the weapon would lower the risk of war by ensuring that Russia would face the threat of proportional counterstrikes. It was deployed in late 2019.
“It’s all about psychology — deadly psychology,” said Franklin C. Miller, a nuclear expert who backed the new warhead and, before leaving public office in 2005, held Pentagon and White House posts for three decades. “If your opponent thinks he has a battlefield edge, you try to convince him that he’s wrong.”
When he was a candidate for the presidency, Biden called the less powerful warhead a “bad idea” that would make presidents “more inclined” to use it. But Kristensen said the Biden administration seemed unlikely to remove the new warhead from the nation’s submarines.
It’s unclear how Biden would respond to the use of a nuclear weapon by Putin.
Nuclear war plans are one of Washington’s most deeply held secrets. Experts say that the war-fighting plans in general go from warning shots to single strikes to multiple retaliations and that the hardest question is whether there are reliable ways to prevent a conflict from escalating.
Even Clapper, the former director of national intelligence, said he was unsure how he would advise Biden if Putin unleashed his nuclear arms.
“When do you stop?” he asked of nuclear retaliation. “You can’t just keep turning the other cheek. At some point we’d have to do something.”
A U.S. response to a small Russian blast, experts say, might be to fire one of the new submarine-launched warheads into the wilds of Siberia or at a military base inside Russia. Miller, the former government nuclear official and a former chairman of NATO’s nuclear policy committee, said such a blast would be a way of signaling to Moscow that “this is serious, that things are getting out of hand.”
Military strategists say a tit-for-tat rejoinder would throw the responsibility for further escalation back at Russia, making Moscow feel its ominous weight and ideally keeping the situation from spinning out of control despite the dangers in war of miscalculation and accident.
In a darker scenario, Putin might resort to using atomic arms if the war in Ukraine spilled into neighboring NATO states. All NATO members, including the United States, are obliged to defend one another — potentially with salvos of nuclear warheads.
Tannenwald, the political scientist at Brown University, wondered if the old protections of nuclear deterrence, now rooted in opposing lines of less destructive arms, would succeed in keeping the peace.
“It sure doesn’t feel that way in a crisis,” she said.
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>>> Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine
The New York Times
by John Ismay
March 15, 2022
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-deploys-mystery-munition-ukraine-114716254.html
American intelligence officials have discovered that the barrage of ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine contain a surprise: decoys that trick air-defense radars and fool heat-seeking missiles.
The devices are each about 1 foot long, shaped like a dart and white with an orange tail, according to an American intelligence official. They are released by the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles that Russia is firing from mobile launchers across the border, the official said, when the missile senses that it has been targeted by air defense systems.
Each is packed with electronics and produces radio signals to jam or spoof enemy radars attempting to locate the Iskander-M, and contains a heat source to attract incoming missiles. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about intelligence matters, described the devices on the condition of anonymity.
The use of the decoys may help explain why Ukrainian air-defense weapons have had difficulty intercepting Russia’s Iskander missiles.
Powered by a solid-fuel rocket motor, the Iskander can reach targets more than 200 miles away, according to U.S. government documents. Each mobile launcher can fire two Iskanders before it must be reloaded.
Photographs of the dart-shaped munitions began circulating on social media two weeks ago. They had stumped experts and open-source intelligence analysts — many of whom mistook them for bomblets from cluster weapons based on their size and shape.
Richard Stevens, who spent 22 years in the British Army as an explosive ordnance disposal soldier and later worked as a civilian bomb technician for 10 years in southern Iraq, Africa and other regions, said he had been exposed “to plenty of Chinese and Russian munitions, but I had never seen this.”
Stevens posted photos of the munitions to a site for military and civilian bomb disposal experts that he started in 2011, and found that no one else seemed to have seen these mystery munitions before either.
“That Russia is using that size of weapon — the Iskander-M — and quite a few of them I believe, that’s why we’re seeing this now,” Stevens said. “It’s just that, post-conflict in the past 10 to 15 years, no one has had the opportunity to see this.”
The devices are similar to Cold War decoys called “penetration aids,” the intelligence official said, that have accompanied nuclear warheads since the 1970s and were designed to evade anti-missile systems and allow individual warheads to reach their targets. The incorporation of the devices into weapons such as the Iskander-M that have conventional warheads has not been previously documented in military arsenals.
“The minute people came up with missiles, people started trying to shoot them down, and the minute people started trying to shoot them down, people started thinking about penetration aids,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a professor of nonproliferation at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. “But we never see them because they’re highly secret — if you know how they work, you can counteract them.”
The use of the decoys may point to some level of carelessness or urgency by Russian military leadership, Lewis said, given that Russia knows they will inevitably be collected and studied by Western intelligence services so that NATO air defenses can be programmed to defeat the Iskander’s countermeasures.
And it is highly unlikely, he said, that the version of the Iskander that Russia has sold to other countries would contain these decoys.
“That suggests to me that the Russians place some value on keeping that technology close to home and that this war is important enough to them to give that up,” Lewis said. “They’re digging deep, and maybe they no longer care, but I would care if I were them.
“I think that there are some very excited people in the U.S. intelligence community right now.”
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>>> Nord Stream 2: Why Russia’s pipeline to Europe divides the West
The Russia-owned pipeline is at the centre of a disagreement between Germany and the US, which sees the project as a way for Moscow to increase leverage in Europe.
A map of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
Aljazeera
By Liz Cookman
25 Jan 2022
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/25/ukraine-russia-what-is-nord-steam-2-and-why-is-it-contentious
As Western powers attempt to avert a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nord Stream 2, a long-touted energy infrastructure project that has already driven a wedge between Germany and the United States, could become a key bargaining chip.
The $11bn gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea, owned by Russia’s state-backed energy giant Gazprom, runs from western Siberia to Germany, doubling the capacity of the already-in-use Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
While Germany has maintained it is solely a commercial project, Nord Stream 2 also has geostrategic consequences, bypassing Ukraine and potentially depriving it of the approximately $2bn in transit fees Russia currently pays to send gas through its territory.
The pipeline could heat 26 million German homes at an affordable price and construction was completed in September.
However, German regulators have yet to issue the final legal permission Gazprom needs to begin operations.
The US has viewed the pipeline as a geopolitical tool for Russia to undermine energy and national security, increasing Moscow’s leverage over Europe, where gas prices have been soaring.
The pipeline has been opposed by Ukraine and Poland and has left Washington in a difficult position with some of its European allies. It has also caused political infighting within Germany’s new coalition government and left the West divided in its response to the situation.
Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had previously refused to be publicly outspoken on the possibility of halting the pipeline if Russia were to attack Ukraine, offered his strongest indication that this was still possible.
“It is clear that there will be a high cost and that all this will have to be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine,” Scholz said at a news conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
On January 13, the US Senate failed to pass a bill sponsored by Republican Senator Ted Cruz to slap sanctions on Nord Stream 2.
The administration of US President Joe Biden had lobbied Republican senators against the bill, fearing its effect on US-German relations and the possibility that it could further antagonise Russia amid the Ukraine crisis.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had asked the Senate to approve the Nord Stream 2 sanctions, while Germany had specifically asked that the US Congress not to propose sanctions.
In May, Biden waived sanctions on the Russian-owned, Swiss-based company running the pipeline project, Nord Stream 2 AG, as part of an agreement with Germany.
However, the US’s stance has not had the desired effect in Germany, and Russia has piled on the pressure, with the state-run Tass news agency saying sanctions on the pipeline would lead to declining energy supplies and gas price growth in Europe.
“The more the US talks about sanctioning or criticises the project, the more it becomes popular in German society,” said Stefan Meister, a Russia and eastern Europe expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
“Germans in the majority support the project, it is only parts of the elite and media who are against the pipeline.”
A gas supply shortage in Europe has been widely blamed on a dearth of gas flows from Russia. It has particularly hit Germany’s low-income workers, which Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) party rely on for votes.
Tens of thousands of Russian troops have been deployed near Ukraine’s borders, prompting fears that Moscow could launch an attack at very short notice.
The US and UK have begun withdrawing some of their embassy staff from Kyiv, while the European Union has refused to follow suit, with a top diplomat saying that they did not wish to “dramatise” the situation further.
The US has promised to boost security assistance for Ukraine, but recent talks between the West and Russia failed to reach a breakthrough, with some of Moscow’s demands rejected as non-starters.
They include that Ukraine should never join NATO and that NATO’s military activities be limited to member states, including Poland.
However, a subsequent round of talks last week in Geneva between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov appeared to have calmed tensions, at least temporarily.
The situation seems unlikely to be solved quickly – few want a conflict, but there is a possibility one could be triggered accidentally by a political misstep.
Russia has agreed to further talks between Lavrov and his UK counterpart, Ben Wallace.
Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that shares borders with both the EU and Russia, has social and cultural ties with Russia, with Russian widely spoken. Despite gaining independence in 1991, Russia still sees Ukraine as an important territory and has long resisted its move towards European institutions.
Two months after the Nord Stream 2 certification process was suspended, it has become one of the strongest remaining tools for the West to influence Russian decision-making when it comes to military action in Ukraine.
For Russia, the pipeline is important because it removes the risks associated with sending gas through transit countries, allowing Gazprom to ship gas directly to its most important European customer, Germany,
The pipeline could cut their operating costs by about $1bn per year, as transit through Ukraine, in particular, is expensive.
“Germany has been resisting pressure from the US because it absolutely needs reliable gas supplies from Russia and, for all it is now one of the top exporters of liquified natural gas in the world, the US cannot replace Russia in that role as key gas supplier to Germany,” said Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets.
“Ukraine stands to lose several billion dollars per year in transit fees – which is what makes NS2 a cheaper option for shipment – a key stream of hard currency income for the country.”
Bypassing Ukraine sharply reduced the country’s leverage with Russia and reduced its income. However, Europe and Germany depend on Russia’s gas, with this current conflict exposing vulnerabilities, meaning Nord Stream 2 has become both a deterrent to war in Ukraine and a punishment option in the event there is one.
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$LLLI: Lamperd Less Lethal Receives Initial Order for Multiple Product Types from Concorde-Corodex Group Serving Law Enforcement Agencies in Dubai, UAE and Other Middle East Countries
Some Products Already Completed and Shipped for Feature at the Intersec International Trade Fair for Safety and Security in Dubai, January 16-18, 2022
Source: https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15485442&guid=ZTjwkH2NCX8IOth
SARNIA, ON / January 19, 2022 / Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK: LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide, is pleased to announce a new order for a variety of Lamperd products with full payment being received in December. This order was placed by the well established Concorde-Corodex Group of Dubai, UAE which serves law enforcement agencies in the region (www.corodex.com). The order includes some of the most advanced Lamperd products as well as related ancillary items.
This order is being processed in two parts. Manufacturing and shipment for the first group of products has already been completed. These first products have now been received by Concorde-Corodex Group which exhibited them this week at the Intersec International Trade Fair for Safety and Security being held in Dubai on January 16-18, 2022. The second and larger group of products is currently being manufactured and will be shipped when ready.
Lamperd representative Amer Ebied, who was instrumental in establishing a working relationship with Concorde-Corodex Group and in securing this initial order, was on site at the Intersec event as well. The previous Intersec event was attended by over 34,000 security industry visitors from 135 countries. For more details visit the official Intersec site at https://www.tradefairdates.com/Intersec-M201/Dubai.html.
On the opening day of the Intersec Expo, H.H. Sheikh Mansoor bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Chairman of the Dubai Council for Border Crossing Points Security personally visited the Lamperd Less Lethal product presentation on site. Lamperd’s Amer Ebied and members of the Concorde-Corodex Group met directly with the Sheikh to discuss security solutions and have established ongoing discussions for more applications of our products in the UAE.
H.H. Sheikh Mansoor bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum can be seen visiting our exhibit at Intersec 2022 and inspecting Lamperd products in photos and a video now available on the home page of the Lamperd Less Lethal website at http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
More information on the Sheikh’s activities at Intersec 2022 can also be seen here: http://wam.ae/en/details/1395303011668 T. The event hosted key speakers in the UAE, with global experts and government leaders spearheading the opening of the Cyber Security Lab at the three-day conference. During his tour of the exhibition, Sheikh Mansoor was accompanied by Hilal Saeed Al Marri, Director General of the Department of Economy and Tourism in Dubai.
Barry Lamperd, CEO of Lamperd Less Lethal stated, “Our manufacturing and order fulfillment team worked diligently in December to make sure the first part of this important order was completed and shipped on time for our new customer, Concorde-Corodex Group. We are especially impressed by the personal visit of H.H. Sheikh Mansoor bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum to our exhibit at the very important Intersec event this week. Now that we have opened direct discussions with the Sheikh and his staff, Amer Ebied and our Concorde-Corodex Group associates will be working to provide all of the most advanced, effective and safest less lethal products needed to meet the high security requirements of the UAE region.
About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and interlocking riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors.
For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results.Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements:This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
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$LLLI: Lamperd Less Lethal Receives Follow-Up Orders from Talion Defense Corp. for Components of Advanced Riot Control Munitions to be Manufactured in the USA
Talion Performing Assembly and Arming of Lamperd Designed Products for Marketing to US Police and Corrections Agencies
Link: https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15432711&guid=qrfwkFniGBAxOth
SARNIA, ON / December 21, 2021 / Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK: LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide, has received follow-up orders from its new Colorado based manufacturer and sales distributor, Talion Defense Corp. (https://www.taliondefense.com).
As with Talion’s initial order in November, Lamperd will supply components of its advanced riot control munitions intended for US police and corrections agencies with which Talion has established relationships. Since Talion imports only inert components of the Lamperd products into the US, this arrangement greatly reduces regulatory issues. Talion performs assembly and arming these components at its own facility to be sold as finished Talion Defense Corp. products. These products can therefore be labeled as “Made in Colorado, USA” making them more appropriate for US buyers.
Oliver Mazurkiewicz, Talion's Agency Sales Lead noted: "We are seeing a great deal of excitement for these less lethal products in the US market and are going to be holding a series of multi-agency demos in January of 2022. We believe the Lamperd products bring a proven quality option to what is certainly a significant agency need."
Barry Lamperd, CEO of Lamperd Less Lethal stated, “We are very impressed by the diligent efforts of our new business associates at Talion to quicky set up their manufacturing and sales operation for Lamperd designed security products in the vast US marketplace. With all the crisis situations happening in the US today, and the demands to find more effective less lethal response products, we foresee a major opportunity for sales growth. Talion is giving us just the presence to grow our market share in the USA at this time when it is needed most. Lamperd products have been extensively developed and tested to be the most effective and also the safest in the less lethal industry so they can be of great help in maintaining order and helping to save more lives.”
For information on purchasing these US-made products, please contact the Agency Sales Team of Talion Defense at info@taliondefense.com or (970) 344-5667.
About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and interlocking riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors.
For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results.Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements:This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
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>>> Russia and Ukraine agree to continue ceasefire talks
CNN
1-26-22
By Yulia Shevchenko, Jennifer Deaton, Lindsay Isaac, Helen Regan and Kara Fox
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-and-ukraine-agree-to-continue-ceasefire-talks/ar-AATblSi?ocid=uxbndlbing
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed that a permanent ceasefire in eastern Ukraine must be observed "unconditionally" following hours-long talks in Paris on Wednesday.
Top officials from Ukraine and Russia met in Paris on January 26 for talks to defuse tensions on their border, a meeting seen as a positive step by France despite fresh warnings from the US that Moscow was preparing military action. The meeting in the French capital between the Kremlin's deputy chief of staff and a senior Ukrainian presidential advisor alongside French and German diplomats, was seen by Paris as holding out faint hope of a thaw.
The announcement came after a meeting at the Elysee Palace of the so-called Normandy Format -- a four-way conversation between representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France -- that has been trying to broker peace in eastern Ukraine since 2014.
Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop build-up near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics -- spurring fears that Russia could launch an invasion.
Speaking after Wednesday's meeting, Moscow's chief negotiator Dmitry Kozak said the ceasefire must be observed "unconditionally" but that many other issues in eastern Ukraine remained unresolved.
Western officials are continuing to push for a diplomatic solution to the tensions through the full implementation of the Minsk agreements -- a ceasefire protocol signed by Ukraine and Russia in 2015.
"We agreed that regardless of different discrepancies of the Minsk agreements that exist between Ukraine and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the truce in Donbas must be observed unconditionally," Kozak said.
He added that the "obligation" to implement such agreements "lies with the armed forces of Ukraine and the armed formations of the (eastern separatists) Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic."
Ukrainian negotiator Andriy Yermak said all parties were in support of a permanent ceasefire and Ukraine was ready to negotiate around the clock to prevent war and to de-escalate tensions around the border.
Yermak called the renewal of the Normandy Format talks -- first held after Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea -- a "very positive signal" and the first such substantive agreement since the end of 2019.
He called talks "really substantial, but not an easy discussion" and while there were still disagreements there was an interest in working through them.
"The work continues and I can tell you that Ukraine as usual is ready to negotiate, to meet 24-7. Because for us, for (Ukrainian) President (Volodymyr) Zelensky, for the entire team, the goal of stopping the war, of ending the war and returning our territories -- and today that this also includes easing the tensions -- the de-escalation around the Ukrainian border, is the priority," Yermak said.
Kozak and Yermak said the talks would resume in about two weeks in Berlin.
Putin addresses build-up of troops near Ukraine in annual press conference
Russia's NATO concerns
As many as 100,000 Russian troops have remained amassed at the Ukrainian border, despite warnings from US President Joe Biden and European leaders of serious consequences should Russian President Vladimir Putin order an invasion.
Russia has repeatedly denied it is planning an invasion but has argued that NATO support for Ukraine -- including increased weapons supplies and military training -- constitutes a growing threat on its western flank.
On Thursday, Russia's Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev accused NATO of failing to keep its non-expansion "promise," saying the alliance had moved closer to Russian borders, state news agency TASS reported.
Medvedev said a process of negotiations on security guarantees is the only way to settle the current tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the West.
"They promised not to expand NATO, but didn't keep the promise," Medvedev said, according to TASS. "They say that 'we did not sign anything.' But we all know well who and when granted to whom such promises, such assurances."
Medvedev added: "Everything must be done to avoid any war."
NATO's 'open-door' policy
As the Normandy Format got underway on Wednesday, the United States delivered a written response to Russia's concerns over Ukraine. Putin's central demand is that the US and NATO commit to never admitting Ukraine to the 30-member defense alliance.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declined to detail specifics presented to Moscow but said it reiterated the West's public response to uphold NATO's "open-door policy."
"There is no change. There will be no change," Blinken said of US and NATO support of the alliance's open-door policy.
"We make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend, including Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances," he added.
Blinken said the US response to Russia "sets out a serious diplomatic path forward should Russia choose it" and outlines areas where the US has said it sees potential for progress with Russia -- arms control, transparency and stability.
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>>> U.S. intel suggests Russia is preparing a 'false-flag' operation as pretext for Ukraine invasion
NBC News
by Dareh Gregorian and Josh Lederman and Dan De Luce and Peter Alexander and Andrea Mitchell
1-14-22
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-intel-suggests-russia-is-preparing-a-false-flag-operation-as-pretext-for-ukraine-invasion/ar-AASN3UP?ocid=uxbndlbing
The U.S. has information that the Russian government is planning a "false-flag" operation to rationalize an invasion of Ukraine, a government official said Friday.
"We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces," the official said, confirming a CNN report.
Russia preparing a 'false-flag' operation as pretext for Ukraine invasion, U.S. Intel suggests
"Our information also indicates that Russian influence actors are already starting to fabricate Ukrainian provocations in state and social media to justify a Russian intervention and sow divisions in Ukraine," the official said. "For example, Russian officials and influence actors are emphasizing narratives about the deterioration of human rights in Ukraine and the increased militancy of Ukrainian leaders."
It's rare for the U.S. government to publicly release intelligence information in real time, especially about a high-value target like Russia, a longtime U.S. adversary. The unusual disclosure came as the Biden administration has sought to pre-empt Russian tactics, which during previous conflicts have obscured the facts and made it more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to hold Moscow accountable.
For weeks, as concerns have grown about a potential Russian invasion, U.S. national security officials have warned publicly that Russia was likely to spread misinformation about ongoing diplomatic efforts to muddy the waters and to try to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its NATO and European allies.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Friday at her daily briefing that the intelligence shows Russia "is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion."
Psaki added that Russians appear to be following the same playbook they used when they took control of Crimea.
"We saw this before, leading up to 2014, just to note — through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces," Psaki said. She added that an invasion by Russia now "may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives."
The comments came hours after Ukraine was hit by a massive cyberattack warning its citizens to “expect the worst.” Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters it was too early to say who could be behind the attack, but that Russia had been behind similar strikes in the past.
Psaki said President Joe Biden has been briefed on the attack, and that the U.S. has "offered our support as Ukraine investigates the impact and recovers from the incidents.”
Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops on its neighbor’s frontier. The Russian government has denied it has plans to attack Ukraine, but aired footage of more forces deploying to the area on Friday. Russian officials met with their U.S., European and NATO counterparts over the past week as they sought defuse tensions between the two countries. But in the aftermath of those talks, the Biden administration has said it believes a Russian incursion into Ukraine remains a real possibility.
“The drumbeat of war is sounding loud,” a senior U.S. diplomat said.
The Biden administration is considering arming Ukrainian insurgents, who would in essence fight a guerrilla war against Russian forces, if Russia invades Ukraine, a senior U.S. official and a former U.S. official confirmed to NBC News. Such a move would be in addition to the administration's ongoing commitment to providing arms to Ukraine's government.
Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland said this week at a State Department briefing that "we have this year alone supplied Ukraine with some $450 million of defensive lethal support in all kinds of categories."
Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said at a virtual briefing organized by the think tank the Atlantic Council that they are still hoping to reach a diplomatic resolution. He said Zelenskyy had spoken to Biden about possible trilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“We’re still waiting for a reaction on this I think from the Russian side,” Yermak said. "But our American partners take our proposal with some interest."
A White House official told NBC News that the Biden administration is "consulting with allies and partners, including Ukraine, to determine the next steps, and we are in communication with the Russians."
"We believe diplomacy is the best path forward," the official said, and "are prepared to continue to engage in good faith to advance security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic. But if Russia chooses a different path and further invades Ukraine, we are equally prepared to impose severe costs on Russia, along with our allies and partners."
National security adviser Jake Sullivan said at a White House press briefing Thursday that the intelligence community had information pointing to a Russian false flag operation in Ukraine, but had "not made an assessment that the Russians have definitively decided to take a military course of action." He added that that it was “certainly the case that the threat of military invasion is high.”
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>>> Nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NEMP)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse
A nuclear electromagnetic pulse is the abrupt pulse of electromagnetic radiation resulting from a nuclear explosion. The resulting rapidly changing electric fields and magnetic fields may couple with electrical/electronic systems to produce damaging current and voltage surges.[8]
The intense gamma radiation emitted can also ionize the surrounding air, creating a secondary EMP as the atoms of air first lose their electrons and then regain them.
NEMP weapons are designed to maximize such EMP effects as the primary damage mechanism, and some are capable of destroying susceptible electronic equipment over a wide area.
A high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapon is a NEMP warhead designed to be detonated far above the Earth's surface. The explosion releases a blast of gamma rays into the mid-stratosphere, which ionizes as a secondary effect and the resultant energetic free electrons interact with the Earth's magnetic field to produce a much stronger EMP than is normally produced in the denser air at lower altitudes.
Non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP)
Non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) is a weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse without use of nuclear technology. Devices that can achieve this objective include a large low-inductance capacitor bank discharged into a single-loop antenna, a microwave generator, and an explosively pumped flux compression generator. To achieve the frequency characteristics of the pulse needed for optimal coupling into the target, wave-shaping circuits or microwave generators are added between the pulse source and the antenna. Vircators are vacuum tubes that are particularly suitable for microwave conversion of high-energy pulses.[9]
NNEMP generators can be carried as a payload of bombs, cruise missiles (such as the CHAMP missile) and drones, with diminished mechanical, thermal and ionizing radiation effects, but without the consequences of deploying nuclear weapons.
The range of NNEMP weapons is much less than nuclear EMP. Nearly all NNEMP devices used as weapons require chemical explosives as their initial energy source, producing only 10-6 (one millionth) the energy of nuclear explosives of similar weight.[10] The electromagnetic pulse from NNEMP weapons must come from within the weapon, while nuclear weapons generate EMP as a secondary effect.[11] These facts limit the range of NNEMP weapons, but allow finer target discrimination. The effect of small e-bombs has proven to be sufficient for certain terrorist or military operations.[citation needed] Examples of such operations include the destruction of electronic control systems critical to the operation of many ground vehicles and aircraft.[12][additional citation(s) needed]
The concept of the explosively pumped flux compression generator for generating a non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse was conceived as early as 1951 by Andrei Sakharov in the Soviet Union,[13] but nations kept work on non-nuclear EMP classified until similar ideas emerged in other nations.
...The damaging effects of high-energy EMP have led to the introduction of EMP weapons, from tactical missiles with a small radius of effect to nuclear bombs designed for maximum EMP effect over a wide area.
...According to national security consultant Peter Vincent Pry, if North Korea detonated a nuclear weapon in space over the United States, it would generate EMP field covering the entire country, Canada, and much of Mexico.[23]
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>>> Mach 5 Missiles Spur New Arms Race as U.S. Seeks to Match China
Push underway to ready systems quickly with more tests in 2022
Bloomberg
By Ryan Beene
December 28, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-28/the-u-s-is-behind-china-on-hypersonic-weapons-and-billions-are-at-stake
Top U.S. defense contractors are competing for billions of dollars of work tied to the next big technology focus in national-security circles: hypersonic weapons.
The military’s renewed interest in ultra-high-speed missiles -- spurred by concern that the U.S. is lagging behind Russia and China -- opens the door to lucrative contracts that could last decades. That may provide a much-needed boon for manufacturers seeking to capitalize on growth segments as the Biden administration keeps overall defense outlays in check.
The industry is developing an array of the super-high speed armaments for the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force, with the aim of being able to launch them from planes, submarines and trucks. Lockheed Martin Corp. has the leading position in key programs that aim to deliver prototypes the soonest -- with flight tests on a new missile slated for the first half of next year. Raytheon Technologies Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp. are also seeking to get a toehold in the market for missiles that fly at more than five times the speed of sound.
“It’s all about making sure that we have more and more capability and classes of capability in hypersonic weapons,” said Jay Pitman, the vice president of air dominance and strike weapons at Lockheed’s missiles and fire control division. “That will enhance the strategic deterrence that we are able to provide.”
Pentagon officials recently estimated that Army and Navy programs that share a common missile may alone add a combined $28.5 billion to the services’ budgets over the coming years.
Critics question the price tag, technical feasibility and battlefield utility of the new class of military hardware. The Union of Concerned Scientists has cast doubt on claims that the weapons offer better performance than existing ballistic missiles and has warned of a destabilizing global arms race.
The pursuit of the weapons by strategic rivals in some ways evokes the tensions of the Cold War, when fears abounded that a conflict between the U.S. and Soviet Union could bring about global annihilation via nuclear missiles. It also was a lucrative epoch for defense contractors.
But just how much hypersonic weapons will alter the global balance of power remains a matter of debate. Some observers see a risk that the weapons’ high speed and unpredictable flight paths could lead to miscalculations that may escalate conflicts, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service. Others argue that hypersonic weapons do little to alter the dynamic between the U.S., Russia and China, because the countries already have enough nuclear missiles to overwhelm an enemy’s defenses, the group said.
Better Than Ballistic
Flying at speeds topping 3,800 miles (6,100 kilometers) per hour is nothing new -- ballistic missiles exceed that level when they re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere from space. But these next-generation weapons are designed be highly maneuverable at those velocities within the Earth’s atmosphere, helping them evade traditional defenses better than ballistic missiles that travel along a predictable arc.
The U.S. has been studying hypersonic weapons for decades, but spending has jumped in recent years as interest in the technology soared. The topic came into focus when General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an October interview on Bloomberg TV that a recent hypersonic test by China was close to a “Sputnik moment” for the U.S.
U.S. military officials have confirmed the Asian nation recently tested a hypersonic weapon that traveled around the world and hit a target back in China.
President Vladimir Putin has boasted about Russia’s hypersonic capabilities after showing them off in 2018, though the U.S. has been more vocal about concerns over China’s program.
Until the technology progresses, it’s unclear precisely how big a boon it will be for top U.S. defense contractors. Beyond near-term plans to deliver hypersonic weapons through a handful of development programs, Pentagon officials have made few decisions about how many and what type of weapons they plan to pursue longer term.
“We’re still waiting on the Department of Defense to define where this fits in their portfolio,” said Wesley Kremer, president of Raytheon Missiles & Defense.
Going Fast
Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor for a hypersonic boost-glide missile for the U.S. Army and Navy, which also are sharing flight test plans to help speed development.
Lockheed’s Eric Scherff, vice president of the space systems division overseeing the program, said the company plans an initial flight test in the first half of 2022 and its first hypersonic missiles are on track to be delivered to the Army by the end of the government’s 2023 fiscal year. The Bethesda, Maryland-based defense giant is working on six hypersonic programs for the U.S. that could enter production between 2023 and 2026, Chief Executive Officer Jim Taiclet said told analysts in October.
Annual revenue tied to hypersonic weapons should rise to $3 billion by 2026 from $1.5 billion today, assuming key programs reach production, acting Chief Financial Officer John Mollard said during the same conference call.
Northrop Grumman supplies the missile’s rocket motors while Leidos Holdings Inc.’s Dynetics subsidiary is making the hypersonic glide body. Dynetics has a $342 million contract to produce 14 gliders, which could lead to a deal to produce 124 worth some $1 billion in revenue, according to the company.
After launch, the missile deploys a wedge-shaped glider when it’s above the atmosphere that enables it to zoom toward a target at ultra-high speeds.
Maturing Technology
Raytheon and Northrop Grumman successfully test fired an air-breathing concept weapon in September, part of a $200 million contract. The test “went a long way toward demonstrating how far and how fast we’ve been able to mature that technology,” said Raytheon’s Kremer.
The aircraft-launched hypersonic weapon uses a rocket booster to accelerate beyond the sound barrier before a supersonic ramjet -- or scramjet -- engine kicks in to propel the weapon past Mach 5. This type of missile could be purchased in larger quantities than boost-glide systems and at a lower unit cost, Kremer said.
The Pentagon’s rapid development effort has also seen some stumbles. Lockheed’s air-launched hypersonic weapon under development for the Air Force has failed three tests since April, most recently on Dec. 15.
As high-tech as this new generation of hardware sounds, it may be just a prelude to what contractors’ secretive research-and-development operations hint they could pursue next: a jump to light speed.
“Hypersonic technology is the natural evolution on the path to where we’ll eventually go, which is to speed-of-light weapons,” Kremer said.
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$LLLI Lamperd Less Lethal (Stock Symbol: LLLI) Entering the Huge US Market for Riot Control Products, First Order Received from Colorado Manufacturer Talion Defense Corp. Using “Made in the USA” Label
Read more: https://digitaljournal.com/pr/lamperd-less-lethal-stock-symbol-llli-entering-the-huge-us-market-for-riot-control-products-first-order-received-from-colorado-manufacturer-talion-defense-corp-using-made-in-the-usa#ixzz7Bp2ESkaW
>>> Iran holds unannounced air defence drill over nuclear town Natanz
Dec 4, 2021
Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-news-agency-says-blast-heard-above-natanz-site-nuclear-facilities-2021-12-04/
DUBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Iranian air defences fired a missile as part of an exercise on Saturday over the central town of Natanz, which houses nuclear installations, state TV reported, after local residents reported hearing a large blast.
The TV said air defence units fired the missile to test a rapid reaction force over Natanz.
"Such exercises are carried out in a completely secure environment ... and there is no cause for concern," Army spokesman Shahin Taqikhani told the TV.
Iranian news agencies earlier reported a large explosion in the sky above Natanz, but said there was no official explanation of the incident.
The semi-official Fars news agency quoted its reporter in nearby Badroud as saying a short blast was heard which was accompanied by an intense light in the sky.
The Islamic Republic says its nuclear ambitions are peaceful.
In April, Iran accused arch-foe Israel of sabotaging its key Natanz nuclear site and vowed revenge for an attack that appeared to be the latest episode in a long-running covert war.
Israeli media outlets have quoted unnamed intelligence sources as saying the country's Mossad spy service carried out a successful sabotage operation at the underground Natanz complex, potentially setting back enrichment work there by months. But Israel has not formally commented on the incident.
Israel opposed the original 2015 Iran nuclear accord with world powers, which aimed to curb Iran's nuclear programme in return for lifting sanctions against Tehran, as too limited in scope and duration.
Israeli leaders have long threatened military action against Iran if they deem diplomacy a dead end for denying it nuclear weaponry.
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>>> Russia says airliner had to lose height to avoid NATO spy plane
Dec 4, 2021
Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/passenger-jet-reduced-altitude-over-black-sea-due-spy-plane-interfax-2021-12-04/
MOSCOW, Dec 4 (Reuters) - A Russian Aeroflot airliner flying from Tel Aviv to Moscow was forced to change altitude over the Black Sea because a NATO CL-600 reconnaissance plane crossed its designated flight path, Russia's state aviation authority said on Saturday.
The state airline said flight SU501 carrying 142 passengers had had to drop 2,000 feet on Friday after air traffic control told it that another aircraft had crossed its path.
The crew were able to see the other plane when they passed in the sky, it said in a separate statement.
The aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said a smaller CL-650 aircraft flying from the Black Sea resort of Sochi to Skopje had also had to change its course.
It did not say which NATO member the reconnaissance aircraft belonged to. Russia's Defence Ministry said on Friday it had scrambled fighter jets to escort two U.S. military reconnaissance planes over the Black Sea.
The U.S. Embassy in Moscow made no immediate comment about the incident when it was first reported by the Interfax news agency.
Rosaviatsia said an increase in flights by NATO aircraft in the region was creating risks for civilian planes and that Moscow planned to lodge a diplomatic complaint over them.
International tensions have been rising over Ukraine and the Black Sea region.
Kyiv and NATO powers accuse Russia of building up troops near Ukraine, sparking fears of a possible attack. Moscow denies any such plan and accuses Kyiv of building up its own forces in its east, where Russian-backed separatists control a large part of Ukrainian territory.
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>>> Pentagon asks Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle for bids on new cloud contracts
CNBC
NOV 20 2021
by Jordan Novet
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/pentagon-asks-amazon-google-microsoft-oracle-for-cloud-bids.html
KEY POINTS
The U.S. Defense Department expects to dole out cloud contracts to multiple companies.
The new push comes after the Pentagon scrapped its plans for a single-vendor cloud contract for Microsoft worth up to $10 billion over a decade.
The U.S. General Services Administration said Friday that the Defense Department has solicited bids from Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle for cloud contracts.
The outreach comes after the Pentagon set aside a highly contested $10 billion contract that Microsoft had won and Amazon had challenged. The value of the new contracts is not known, but the Defense Department estimates it could run into the multiple billions of dollars.
The new effort, known as Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability, or JWCC, appears like it will bolster the top global cloud infrastructure providers, Amazon and Microsoft, although it could also provide more credibility to two smaller entities.
“The Government anticipates awarding two IDIQ contracts -- one to Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS) and one to Microsoft Corporation (Microsoft) -- but intends to award to all Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) that demonstrate the capability to meet DoD’s requirements,” the GSA said in its announcement.
An indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity, or IDIQ, contract includes an indefinite amount of services for a specific period of time.
The GSA said only two U.S. cloud infrastructure providers, Amazon and Microsoft, appear able to comply with all of the Pentagon’s requirements, which include “tactical edge devices” that can operate outside of traditional data centers and support all levels of data classification.
Amazon and Microsoft were the finalists for a single Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure, or JEDI, contract. That contract was meant for a single provider and was expected to be worth up to $10 billion over 10 years. Microsoft won it in 2019, Amazon filed a protest and the Pentagon canceled the contract in July.
Andy Jassy, currently Amazon’s CEO and previously head of AWS, argued that there was political interference in the award of the contract. Guy Snodgrass, who was speechwriter for former Defense Secretary James Mattis, asserted in a book that former President Donald Trump called Mattis and said to “screw Amazon” out of a chance to bid on JEDI. But the Pentagon’s inspector general determined the contract did not seem to have been influenced by the White House.
The JWCC differs from JEDI because it allows the Pentagon to rely on multiple cloud providers.
The Pentagon expects each of the IDIQ contracts to have a three-year base period and two year-long option periods.
“Oracle is delighted to be included in the Joint Warfighter Cloud Capability RFP,” Oracle spokesperson Deborah Hellinger said. “We are committed to delivering the highest level of security, performance, and value in enterprise cloud applications and cloud infrastructure in support of DOD’s Warfighter mission.”
Google spokesperson Ben Jose pointed to a blog post from last week that said the company planned to pursue a bid for the military contract, noting the Pentagon is the world’s largest employer. CNBC reported Monday that executives attempted to tactfully address growing employee concern over the contract and previously established artificial intelligence principles, after employees protested against Google’s plans to bid on the JEDI contract.
“Our commitment to supporting our nation’s military and ensuring that our warfighters and defense partners have access to the best technology for the best value is stronger than ever,” an AWS spokesperson told CNBC in an email. “We look forward to continuing to support the DoD’s modernization efforts and building solutions that help accomplish their critical missions.”
Microsoft declined to comment.
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>>> Russia Just Created a Cloud of Bullets in Space
The militarization of space is heating up, and the destruction of an old Soviet satellite crossed a line.
Bloomberg
By James Stavridis
November 20, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-20/russian-missile-test-created-a-cloud-of-bullets-in-space?srnd=premium
When Russia launched a missile from earth that destroyed an old Soviet satellite on Monday, the explosion created thousands of pieces of debris — a virtual cloud of bullets — that will spread through near-earth orbit or fall to the ground. This is a serious risk to astronauts, telecommunications satellites and other critical space systems, including even Russia’s own.
The test was a thoughtless exercise that will intensify the race to militarize space. And it added to the growing cloud of debris that, in the next few years, is expected to double the number of “avoidance maneuvers” satellite operators will be forced to undertake.
What was Russia hoping to gain, and how should the U.S. respond?
Employers Are Hiring. Why Are So Many Workers Holding Back?
As a U.S. State Department spokesman said of the test: “Today, miles above us, there are American astronauts and Russian cosmonauts on the International Space Station. What the Russians did today, with these 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris, poses a risk not only to those astronauts, not only to those cosmonauts, but to satellites of all nations.”
The new U.S. Space Command, which monitors the debris, pointed out that in addition to those trackable pieces, there are “hundreds of thousands” of smaller bits. About half the fragments from the Russian test will fall to earth within a couple years. (Fortunately, there are no reported instances of people being seriously injured by the tumbling debris.)
The director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, former Florida Senator Bill Nelson, and I go way back. When I was commander of U.S. Southern Command, we often traveled through Latin America and the Caribbean. He has a solid grasp of national security issues. He also knows space: He was a payload specialist on the Space Shuttle Columbia in 1986.
In a phone call, Nelson told me the Russian drill was “unconscionable” and indicated it was a surprise not only to American astronauts, but to their Russian counterparts as well. We agreed that it was probably the Russian military acting on its own.
How much of a threat can a tiny bit of space debris be? Consider an earthbound analogy. On a U.S. aircraft carrier, before every launch, crew members meticulously walk the flight deck to find even the tiniest bit of metal, because a single piece of “foreign object debris” can disable the engine of a multimillion-dollar jet. Russia has basically released a vast number of FODs into low-earth altitude, which contains trillions of dollars of vital high-tech equipment.
It’s important to look at Russia’s test in the context of the increasing weaponization of the cosmos. The U.S., China and India also conduct military operations in space. These involve sophisticated intelligence collection (conducted visually, electronically and thermally); targeting for ground-based missile systems; navigational support for military platforms; monitoring of communication systems (cell phones in particular); and enhancing military communications both in space and on earth.
Russia’s test wasn’t an end in itself. It was the next step in the development of its cutting-edge antisatellite system, known as Nudol. Moscow has previously shown an ability to use a satellite to attack another satellite. India and China have demonstrated antisatellite capabilities as well. Of course, the U.S. has its own systems and tests. But in using a missile and creating a vast debris field, Russia crossed a dangerous line.
How should Washington respond? In terms of diplomacy, the U.S needs to confront Russia (and any other nation conducting similar tests) with a public shaming and incontrovertible evidence of its recklessness — much as Washington does with state-sponsored cybercrimes. The U.S. needs to ensure that allies, partners and friends similarly condemn missions that increase levels of space debris. International organizations such as the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs and the European Space Agency should be engaged as well.
The Space Force, created in 2019, is a sixth branch of the U.S. armed forces — technically on a par with the Army and Navy. There will probably be a Cyber Force before too long, and the two branches will be deeply intertwined, as everything that happens in space is dependent on a secure communications ecosystem.
For a nascent entity, the Space Force already has a big job: Carefully tracking U.S. space assets to position them for safe transit among the debris; developing strategies to counter potential Russian operations against key national security satellites; working on operational planning with non-treaty allies that have advanced space capabilities, such as Japan; and ensuring that the government is purchasing the right technology to defend and deter in space.
The heavens are a shared zone of human endeavor, and as Nelson said to me, “Every nation has a responsibility to prevent the purposeful creation of space debris and to help create a safe, sustainable space environment.” Russia just showed how hard that shared endeavor will be.
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>>> Ex-Gen. Stanley McChrystal: AI weapons ‘frightening,’ ‘will’ make lethal decisions
Yahoo Finance
by Max Zahn with Andy Serwer
October 15, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-gen-stanley-mc-chrystal-ai-weapons-frightening-will-make-lethal-decisions-134254328.html
The chief software officer at the Pentagon, Nicolas Chaillan, suddenly quit last month over concerns that the U.S. military had fallen "15 to 20 years" behind China in cyber warfare and artificial intelligence, he told the Financial Times.
The warning marks the latest sign of discord within the U.S. military over how to prepare for what former Google executive Kai-Fu Lee calls the "third revolution" in warfare, after gunpowder and nuclear arms.
In a new interview, ex-General Stanley McChrystal — who led coalition forces in Afghanistan for two years and now heads a consulting firm called the McChrystal Group — said artificial intelligence will inevitably come to make lethal decisions on the battlefield. However, he acknowledged the "frightening" risks of potential malfunction or mistake.
"People say, 'We'll never give control over lethal strike to artificial intelligence,'" says McChrystal, who recently co-authored a book entitled, "Risk: A User's Guide." "That's wrong. We absolutely will."
"Because at a certain point, you can't respond fast enough, unless you do that," he adds. "A hypervelocity missile, hypersonic missile coming at the United States aircraft carrier, you don't have time for individuals to do the tracking, you don't have time for senior leaders to be in the decision loop, or you won't be able to engage the missile."
A ban on autonomous weapons has drawn support from 30 countries, though an in-depth report commissioned by Congress advised the U.S. to oppose a ban, since it could prevent the country from using weapons already in its possession.
In 2015, prominent figures in tech like Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Wozniak, as well as thousands of AI researchers, signed an open letter calling for a ban on such weapons.
President Joe Biden, speaking at a summit of U.S. and European leaders in February, called for international collaboration to "shape the rules that will govern the advance of technology and the norms of behavior in cyberspace, artificial intelligence, biotechnology so that they are used to lift people up, not used to pin them down.”
The increasingly sped-up pace of warfare will require U.S. military officers to cede decision-making power to artificial intelligence, McChrystal said. But that brings risks, he noted.
"You've created technology, you put in processes for it to operate, but then to operate at the speed of war you're essentially turning it on and trusting it," he says.
"That can be pretty frightening, particularly if the potential of malfunction or spoofing or any of those other things are in," he adds.
McChrystal, who graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point in 1976, served a 34-year military career that included a stint as the commander of U.S. special forces and ultimately, a two-year tenure as the head of coalition forces in Afghanistan that ended in 2010.
Then-president Barack Obama accepted McChrystal's resignation days after a Rolling Stone article in which McChrystal and aides criticized senior administration officials.
Speaking to Yahoo Finance, McChrystal warned in general of the power taken up by AI systems when organizations do not fully understand their capabilities.
"It's hard to have a complete understanding of, in a modern organization now, what decisions are actually being made algorithmically and what are being made by people," he says.
"When you don't have that, I would argue you have the risk of no longer having real understanding of control of your organizations," he adds.
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>>> A US nuclear submarine's mysterious collision with an object in the South China Sea suggests it was lurking near the bottom, expert says
Business Insider
by Ryan Pickrell
October 8, 2021
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-nuclear-submarines-mysterious-collision-172921512.html
The crew stands atop the Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine USS Connecticut in this 2018 photo. Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images
A US Navy submarine collided with an object in the Indo-Pacific, the Navy revealed Thursday.
A former Navy submariner told Insider reports suggest the submarine was operating along the sea floor.
The collision, which took place in the South China Sea, is currently under investigation.
The US Navy Seawolf-class submarine USS Connecticut collided with an unknown object in the South China Sea recently, damaging the powerful fast-attack boat and injuring nearly a dozen crew members.
The US Navy statement on the collision said specifically the Connecticut collided with an "object," and service officials talking with Navy Times indicated it was not another vessel and not likely to have been a land mass.
Navy officials told the Associated Press that the object the submarine hit might have been a sunken ship, a shipping container, or some other uncharted object.
Public details on the incident are still very limited, but a former US Navy submariner and defense expert told Insider reports on the collision indicate the submarine was probably operating close to the bottom, possibly on a surveillance mission.
The South China Sea is already a challenging operating environment for submarines because it is, for the most part, actually quite shallow, especially compared to the waters of the nearby Pacific Ocean, with depths of thousands of feet.
Comments from Navy officials speculating that the nuclear-powered submarine may have collided with a container or shipwreck suggests that the ship was not only in shallow waters but likely close to the sea floor, said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
And reports that only about a dozen crew members suffered only minor injuries suggest the submarine may have been moving slowly, possibly because it was near the bottom or possibly to remain undetected or both.
"The things you might do near the sea floor are hide, if you are just trying to surveil Chinese submarine operations, or try to put something on the sea floor or pick something up, which might be a sensor," explained Clark, who is a retired submarine officer and former special assistant to the chief of naval operations.
A potential point of interest for surveillance would be Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island, from which China operates an unknown number of submarines.
Beyond surveillance, other possible operations could include activities like sea floor mapping.
Clark told Insider he "would not be surprised if the Connecticut was up there doing some kind of surveillance operation on Chinese submarine operations out of Hainan Island and it was close to the bottom because it was trying to hide and it ran into something while it was doing that."
It is unclear what kind of operations the Connecticut was conducting at the time of the collision, but a Navy official characterized them to the AP as routine.
The challenge with operating near the sea floor is that there is debris down there that can pose a threat to the submarine.
For instance, the South China Sea is an important strategic waterway through which trillions of dollars in global trade pass each year, and shipping containers are frequently lost at sea.
Submarines have a rudder and use water and compressed air in ballast tanks to control its depth.
And "you can operate fairly closely to the sea floor pretty competently because you have good maps and you've got a bathometer that's measuring the distance between you and the sea bottom," Clark said, explaining that topography charts, depth senors, and passive sonar allow a submarine to steer clear of most obstacles.
But if there is a big uncharted object, like a massive shipping container possibly standing on end, the submarine may not be able to detect it until it is right on top of it.
"That's the problem you run into with operating near the sea floor in an area like that, where there's lots of objects on the sea floor," Clark said.
The Navy is conducting an investigation into the submarine collision, an uncommon occurrence that happened on October 2 but was not reported until five days later due to concerns about operational security, according to the Associated Press.
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>>> China 'Wantonly Engaged in Military Aggression,' Taiwan Premier Warns Amid Record Incursions
Newsweek
by Xander Landen
Oct 2, 2021
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-wantonly-engaged-in-military-aggression-taiwan-premier-warns-amid-record-incursions/ar-AAP4Roz?ocid=uxbndlbing
Taiwan reported that 38 Chinese aircraft entered the island's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Friday, marking the largest daily Chinese incursion into the area.
The Taiwanese military used aircraft to warn away the Chinese planes, and deployed missile systems to monitor them, Reuters reported on Saturday.
"China has been wantonly engaged in military aggression, damaging regional peace," Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang told reporters, according to the news organization.
Oct. 1 wasn't a good day. The #PLAAF flew 38 warplanes into #Taiwan's ADIZ, making it the largest number of daily sorties on record. Threatening? Of course. It's strange the #PRC doesn't bother faking excuses anymore.
PLAAF refers to the People's Liberation Army Air Force.
The incursion came on the day Beijing celebrated the founding of the People's Republic of China, 72 years ago.
"PLAAF sorties are pretty routine at this point, but stepping up bomber flights on a major PRC (People's Republic of China) holiday underscores that this is political warfare and part of a massive coercion campaign," Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore told CNN.
Taiwan has been publicizing PLA Air Force sorties into its air defense identification zone for the last 13 months. As Newsweek previously reported, it saw its highest number of monthly Chinese flights on record in September, when it recorded 117 incursions by Chinese military aircraft including nuclear-capable bombers, fighter jets and reconnaissance planes.
The previous record occurred in April, when Taiwan saw 107 incursions.
China views Taiwan as part of its territory, and earlier this year, warned the island that "independence means war" after it increased military activities near the island.
"Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to heighten its readiness and prepare for warfighting under 'realistic fighting conditions.' Hence, it is relatively unsurprising that the PLA continues to fly into Taiwan's ADIZ as part of realistic training and preparation for armed conflict," Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation told CNN.
Last month, Chinese state media warned that Taiwan would face "severe" military and economic consequences if Washington allowed the self-ruled island to change the name of its representative office in the U.S.
The Biden administration has considered allowing the office to change its name from the "Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office" (TECRO) to the "Taiwan Representative Office."
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>>> Tensions grow as U.S., allies deepen Indo-Pacific involvement
The Spokesman-Review
Sept. 23, 2021
By David Rising
Associated Press
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/sep/23/tensions-grow-as-us-allies-deepen-indo-pacific-inv/
BANGKOK — With increasingly strong talk in support of Taiwan, a new deal to supply Australia with nuclear submarines, and the launch of a European strategy for greater engagement in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and its allies are becoming more assertive in their approach toward a rising China.
China has bristled at the moves, and the growing tensions between Beijing and Washington prompted U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the weekend to implore U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to repair their “completely dysfunctional” relationship, warning they risk dividing the world.
As the U.N. General Assembly opened Tuesday, both leaders chose calming language, with Biden insisting “we are not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs,” and Xi telling the forum that “China has never, and will never invade or bully others or seek hegemony.”
But the underlying issues have not changed, with China building up its military outposts as it presses its maritime claims over critical sea lanes, and the U.S. and its allies growing louder in their support of Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory, and deepening military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
On Thursday, China sent 24 fighter jets toward Taiwan in a large display of force after the island announced its intention to join a Pacific trade group, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, that China has also applied to join.
On Friday, Biden hosts the leaders of Japan, India and Australia for an in-person Quadrilateral Security Dialogue for broad talks including the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, but also how to keep the Indo-Pacific, a vast region spanning from India to Australia, “free and open,” according to the White House.
It comes a week after the dramatic announcement that Australia would be dropping a contract for conventional French submarines in favor of an Anglo-American offer for nuclear-powered vessels, a bombshell that overshadowed the unveiling of the European Union’s strategy to boost political and defense ties in the Indo-Pacific.
“One thing is certain, that everyone is pivoting toward the Indo-Pacific,” said Garima Mohan, an Asia program fellow with the German Marshall Fund think tank.
As partners pursue moves that play to their own strengths and needs, however, the past week has underscored the lack of coordination as a networked security strategy develops, she said.
“Not everyone has the same threat assessment of China,” she said in a telephone interview from Berlin.
The EU policy emphasizes the need for dialogue with Beijing, to encourage “China to play its part in a peaceful and thriving Indo-Pacific region,” while at the same time proposing an “enhanced naval presence” and expanded security cooperation with regional partners.
It also notes China’s increased military buildup, and that “the display of force and increasing tensions in regional hotspots such as in the South and East China Sea, and in the Taiwan Strait, may have a direct impact on European security and prosperity.”
Germany, which has close economic ties to China, got a wake-up call last week when China rejected its request for a port call for the frigate Bavaria, which is currently conducting maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific.
“China is telling them this inclusive approach is not going to work, so in a way it’s a rude awakening for Berlin,” Mohan said. “You have to take a position, you can’t have your cake and eat it too, and if you have an Indo-Pacific strategy … you can’t make it neutral.”
Other EU countries, most notably France, have also sent naval assets for exercises in the Indo-Pacific, and Britain has had a whole carrier strike group conducting exercises for several months as London pursues the new tilt toward the region recommended by a recent British government review of defense and foreign policy.
China’s Foreign Ministry said after rejecting the Bavaria’s port call that it remained “willing to carry out friendly exchanges with Germany on the basis of mutual respect and mutual trust,” but made clear it was displeased with the increased naval presence in the region.
“Individual powers… have repeatedly dispatched military aircraft and warships to the South China Sea for some time in the name of exercising freedom of navigation to flex muscle, stir up trouble and deliberately provoke conflicts on maritime issues,” spokesman Zhao Lijian said. “China’s determination to safeguard national and territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests is unwavering, and will continue to properly handle differences with the countries concerned through consultations and negotiations.”
Beijing was less reserved in its reaction to the submarine deal with Australia, under which the U.S. and Britain will help Canberra construct nuclear-powered submarines, calling it “highly irresponsible” and saying it would “seriously damage regional peace and stability.”
In signing the pact with the U.S. and Britain, Australia canceled a $66 billion deal with France for diesel-powered submarines, infuriating Paris, which recalled its ambassadors to Washington and Canberra and suggested it calls into question the entire cooperative effort to blunt China’s growing influence.
While clearly irked by the surprise deal, many observers have suggested that the vociferous reaction from France may be more directed toward a domestic audience, where President Emmanuel Macron faces a reelection bid early next year.
But there was clear disappointment that the U.S. seemed to be ignoring France’s own engagement in the region by not informing them in advance, said Laurence Nardon, an expert at the French Institute for International Relations.
“There was a way to do this while keeping Europeans in the loop,” she said. “The Indo-Pacific is important for the EU too; it’s not one or the other.”
In a call with Macron late Wednesday, Biden reaffirmed “the strategic importance of French and European engagement in the Indo-Pacific region,” according to a joint statement.
More than just a decision to pursue nuclear submarines, the deal was a clear signal of Australia committing long term to being in the U.S. camp on China policy, said Euan Graham, an expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore.
“The submarine decision represents an emphatic doubling down on the Australia-U.S. alliance by both countries,” he said in an analysis of the deal.
As the pact was introduced, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison alluded to the long-term nature, saying “at its heart, today’s announcements are about the oldest of friendships, the strongest of values and the deepest of commitment.”
The submarine deal seems likely to exacerbate the ongoing trade war between China and Australia, and Australia is hoping to strike a free trade deal with Quad partner India to help offset the economic impact.
While the European strategy outline will take time, the plan provides clarity in how the EU is prepared to work with the U.S. and its allies in the region — something that has been lacking in the past.
“There’s a lack of understanding on the U.S. side of why Europe is interested in the Indo-Pacific and exactly what kind of role it wants to play,” Mohan said in a podcast on the issue. “There’s also a lack of understanding of the U.S. approach.”
In the outline of the strategy, the EU broadly looks to pool its resources for greater effect, and to work more closely with the Quad countries, the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and others.
It also envisions enhancing current operations, such as the Atalanta anti-piracy mission off the Horn of Africa and in the western Indian Ocean, and the expansion of the EU maritime security and safety mission in the wider Indian Ocean area, which has already been broadened to Southeast Asia.
“The European assessment is very realistic about what they can and cannot do in the region,” Mohan said. “It’s about making sure the resources, the spending, that’s done right and has an impact.”
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>>> US removes advanced missile defense system from Saudi Arabia: AP
The Hill
by Caroline Vakil
9-11-21
|
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-removes-advanced-missile-defense-system-from-saudi-arabia-ap/ar-AAOkMEQ?ocid=uxbndlbing
The United States has withdrawn some of its defense missiles from Saudi Arabia amid ongoing attacks levied against the country by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis, The Associated Press reported.
The wire service analyzed satellite footage from Plant Labs Inc., which showed that the Prince Sultan Air Base previously had a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense unit and a missile defense system in addition to Patriot missile batteries. Several batteries were no longer at the air base, according to footage taken near the end of August and reviewed by the AP.
The news outlet noted that the missile system and batteries appeared to be gone after analyzing photos taken on Friday.
Following inquiries from the AP, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby conceded that "certain air defense assets" had been redeployed.
"The Defense Department continues to maintain tens of thousands of forces and a robust force posture in the Middle East representing some of our most advanced air power and maritime capabilities, in support of U.S. national interests and our regional partnerships," Kirby told the AP.
The Hill has reached out to U.S. Central Command for comment.
Earlier this year, the Pentagon said that "certain forces and capabilities" would be pulled out of the Middle East.
"The secretary of Defense directed the commander of U.S. Central Command to remove from the region this summer certain forces and capabilities, primarily air defense assets," Pentagon spokeswoman Cmdr. Jessica McNulty said in a statement.
McNulty explained that the move was made in "close coordination with host nations" and that it was "about maintaining some of our high demand, low density assets so they are ready for future requirements in the event of a contingency."
Saudi Arabia's defense ministry also conceded in a statement to the AP that defense missiles had been removed but maintained the move was done through a "common understanding and realignment of defense strategies."
"The redeployment of some defense capabilities of the friendly United States of America from the region is carried out through common understanding and realignment of defense strategies as an attribute of operational deployment and disposition," the ministry said in its statement.
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>>> China Hypersonic Drone Program Confirmed by Military Researchers
Newsweek
9-7-21
by John Feng
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/china-hypersonic-drone-program-confirmed-by-military-researchers/ar-AAObFlF?ocid=uxbndlbing
China's military scientists appeared to confirm the existence of a hypersonic drone program this month after publishing research on the challenges of landing an unmanned aircraft travelling at Mach 5.
Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday that researchers with China's People's Liberation Army Air Force were working on refining the technology behind a classified model of hypersonic drone, although it was unclear whether such a vehicle was already in service.
The paper published on September 1 appeared in the bi-monthly Chinese journal Tactical Missile Technology.
Dai Fei, of Beihang University in Beijing, conducted the study with four others and the College of Automation Engineering at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
Their research looked at an "unpowered return guidance scheme" for unmanned aerial vehicles traveling at five times the speed of sound. At that speed, and from an altitude of 19 miles, the engine of the hypersonic UAV would need to be shut down 125 miles from the intended landing runway, The Post said.
According to the abstract by Dai et al., the drone would enter an "automatic landing interface," which the paper said would rely solely on software prediction to determine the timing and angle of approach, based on variables such as air pressure and altitude.
Neither humans nor the fastest of computers would be able to intervene and provide course corrections at Mach 5, the newspaper said in its latest report into under-development, next-generation PLA technology. The solution, the researchers said, was to improve the software "to better predict possible landing scenarios."
To slow down the UAV, the military scientists would have it perform subtle S turns, but only within the stress limits allowed by the aircraft's wings or body, the study said. As hypersonic aircraft engines cannot be restarted, this "absence of controlled power adds complexity to the landing," according to The Post.
Tuesday's report quotes Chinese engineering professor Wang Xing as saying the PLA could use hypersonic drones against U.S. Air Force F-35s or F-22s, which could be caught "in seconds" after launching an attack.
In July, the newspaper reported designs for a future hypersonic jet that, by 2035, could ferry 10 passengers to anywhere on Earth within an hour. By the mid-2040s, the aircraft could be delivering 10,000 tons of cargo and 10,000 people to space—or moon—stations every year.
In another report the same month, The Post revealed that PLA researchers were developing a hypersonic vehicle–mounted laser that could manipulate the shock wave at the nose of a moving aircraft or missile to allow for faster and safer travel.
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>>> Why Israel’s transfer to US Central Command could help deter Iran
Army Times
By Bradley Bowman and Behnam Ben Taleblu
Sep 7, 2021
https://www.armytimes.com/opinion/commentary/2021/09/07/why-israels-transfer-to-us-central-command-could-help-deter-iran/
U.S. Central Command announced Sept. 1 that it has assumed responsibility for U.S. forces in Israel. This positive development reflects changes in Arab-Israeli relations and offers an opportunity to build a more unified and militarily capable American-Israeli-Arab coalition to deter aggression from Iran and its terrorist proxies — one of CENTCOM’s top priorities.
Despite Israel’s location in the Middle East, when CENTCOM was created in 1983, responsibility for the Jewish state was assigned to U.S. European Command. That decision reflected Israel’s political isolation from its Arab neighbors. As a Pentagon news report noted in January with a bit of understatement, Israel’s regional isolation would have “complicated” efforts by CENTCOM to coordinate multilateral exercises and operations that included Israel.
Warming Arab-Israeli ties offer a major opportunity to align key partners against common regional threats. The catalyst for improved Arab-Israeli relations is the Islamic Republic of Iran’s longstanding effort to develop a nuclear weapons capability, as well as Tehran’s determined campaign to create, cultivate and co-opt terrorist proxies across the Middle East to attack both Arab and Israeli targets.
US Central Command absorbs Israel into its area of responsibility
The move comes as Israel and its neighbors work to improve diplomatic relations under the Abraham Accords.
Tehran’s aggression helps explain the conclusion last year of the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords between Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, enabling significant and mutually beneficial opportunities for political, economic and cultural cooperation.
Enhanced military cooperation, however, will likely carry the most direct benefits for regional stability.
In May, another round of fighting erupted between Israel and Iran-backed terror groups in the Gaza Strip. The groups fired over 4,300 rockets at Israel, also employing drones, unmanned underwater vehicles and anti-tank weapons.
These attacks are not a threat simply for Israel. Weapons employed against Israel by Iran and its army of proxies are also used against Americans and our Arab partners.
From May 2019 to the present, Iran-backed militias are believed to have been behind over 100 rocket, mortar or drone attacks against positions in Iraq associated with the U.S. force presence, with at least 27 indirect fire incidents taking place during this year alone. The U.S. and others blamed Tehran for orchestrating a 2019 attack against Saudi Arabia’s Khurais oil field and Abqaiq oil processing facility, using drones and cruise missiles — briefly knocking offline a significant portion of the world’s total production capacity.
The Islamic republic routinely harasses and targets American, Arab and Israeli interests in the maritime domain. Tehran has used drones and fast-attack craft to challenge American military vessels in the Persian Gulf and signal defiance to decision-makers in Washington. Tehran has also seized tankers and stepped up mining operations that impede the free flow of commerce, directly impacting Iran’s Arab neighbors, and is engaged in a shadow war using drones against Israeli-linked tankers.
While Iran has proliferated whole weapons systems to terrorist groups in the past, the Islamic Republic has also been enabling local weapons production in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. That creates new challenges and puts a premium on cooperation between the United States, Israel and key Arab partners.
By itself, transferring Israel from EUCOM to CENTCOM won’t address these challenges or strengthen regional security. CENTCOM already works closely with Israel. However, as CENTCOM’s commander, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, said earlier this year, the transfer can bring a more “operational perspective” to the Abraham Accords.
One major way to do that would be to assertively seek opportunities for combined military exercises and training involving the United States, Israel and as many Arab partners as possible. CENTCOM should encourage Israel to add Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to the next Noble Dina exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean, for example. CENTCOM should also encourage Abu Dhabi to invite the Israel Defense Forces to the next Iron Union exercise. And CENTCOM should work with EUCOM to encourage Greece to invite Egypt and Jordan to join Israel, the United Arab Emirates and others as full participants in the next Greek-hosted Iniochos exercise.
These and other steps would increase the individual readiness of the respective militaries, strengthen their ability to work together, and send a powerful message to Tehran and its terror proxies.
The announcement this month was an encouraging and positive development. Now the real work begins to better secure and defend mutual American, Israeli and Arab interests.
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>>> With Collapse in Afghanistan, Russia Takes Charge in Central Asia
The New York Times
by Andrew E. Kramer and Anton Troianovski
8-20-21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/with-collapse-in-afghanistan-russia-takes-charge-in-central-asia/ar-AANvyE3?li=BBnb7Kz
DUSHANBE, Tajikistan — As the Afghan government collapsed this week in Kabul and the United States scrambled to speed up its evacuation effort, hundreds of Russian armored vehicles and artillery pieces were clearly visible hundreds of miles away, on the border with Tajikistan.
They were part of a high-profile military exercise taking place just 12 miles from a Taliban position, and they were there, a Russian general said, to make a point.
“They are all visible,” said Gen. Anatoly Sidorov, commander of the forces involved in the exercise. “They are not hiding.”
It will now be Russia, the exercises signaled, that will be shielding Central Asia from potential violence next door.
In the long post-Soviet jostling for power and influence in Central Asia sometimes called the new Great Game, an ever more dominant player has emerged from the chaos and confusion of Afghanistan: Russia, at least in security affairs.
“I wouldn’t say a wounded animal,” the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Tuesday of the withdrawal of NATO and the U.S. forces from Afghanistan. “But this is a group of countries that in a very painful and difficult way is giving up on the positions in the world they were used to for many decades.”
The strengthening of Russia’s position in Central Asian security matters is part of a broader shift brought about by the Taliban’s rise to power. Russia, China and Pakistan all stand to gain influence in regional affairs with the West’s withdrawal, while the United States and India stand to lose.
“I’m thinking of this as a post-Western or post-U.S. space now,” said Alexander Cooley, director of the Harriman Institute at Columbia University, and an authority on Central Asia. “It’s a region transforming itself without the United States.”
And largely to Russia’s benefit.
For Moscow, the chaotic American withdrawal, while reminiscent of Russia’s humiliating 1989 retreat from Afghanistan after its disastrous 10-year intervention, was a propaganda victory on a global scale.
From Latin America to Eastern Europe, Russia has fought for influence by insisting that the United States cannot be trusted. Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, warned that America’s friends in Ukraine could soon also be disappointed.
“The country is headed toward collapse, and the White House at a certain moment won’t even remember about its supporters in Kyiv,” Mr. Patrushev said in an interview published on Thursday.
The rapid fall of President Ashraf Ghani’s government was also a vindication of Russia’s yearslong strategy of building a diplomatic relationship with the Taliban. As Western diplomats scrambled to flee Kabul this week, Russian officials stayed put, with the Taliban guaranteeing the security of the Russian Embassy.
“They made a good impression on us,” Russia’s ambassador in Kabul, Dmitri Zhirnov, said of his embassy’s new Taliban guards on Russian state television this week. “They’re decent guys, well armed.”
At Russia’s most recent round of talks with the Taliban in Moscow, in July, the group pledged that its military gains would not be a threat to Russia or its interests. Russia hosted the Taliban for multiple rounds of talks even though the group is officially classified as a banned terrorist organization with Russia, making any association with it a potential crime.
“It’s pragmatism — and cynicism and double-think,” said Arkady Dubnov, a Russian expert on Central Asia, describing the Russian government’s strategy of building ties with the Taliban. “People are locked up in Russia for this kind of cooperation with a terrorist organization.”
Russia’s military exercises on the border represented another side of its strategy, a show of force to demonstrate its willingness to punish the Taliban if they should step out of line. “You can talk to the Taliban but you also need to show them a fist,” said Daniel Kiselyov, editor of Fergana, a Russian-language outlet focused on Central Asia.
Beyond Afghanistan, Russia still faces stiff competition from China’s debt and infrastructure diplomacy in Central Asia, a central thoroughfare of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. And the American oil companies Chevron and Exxon have been pumping crude in Kazakhstan for years. On Tuesday, China and Tajikistan announced a joint border-patrol exercise.
But Russia’s security presence is predominant. The sprawling military footprint the U.S. established in the former Soviet states of Central Asia to facilitate the invasion of Afghanistan has all but disappeared.
As Edil Baisalov, the Kyrgyz ambassador to Britain, put it succinctly in a telephone interview: “The great hour of America in Central Asia has long since passed.”
Huge U.S. military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have long since closed down, along with a major supply line called the Northern Distribution Network that had stretched from as far away as the Baltic nations through Russia and Central Asia to northern Afghanistan.
As the U.S. military effort has wound down, so, too, has Washington’s political influence. The Biden administration made overtures this summer to four of the five former Soviet Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — offering things like aid funding and Covid-19 vaccines in exchange for taking a share of 9,000 Afghan refugees. So far it has found no takers.
Some, like Tajikistan, gladly accepted the money and vaccines while still declining to take the refugees. Today, the Moderna vaccine is available free in government-run medical tents in village bazaars in the mountain region of Badakhshan in Tajikistan, residents say.
But nearby, Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers have been rumbling along the roads, kicking up dust, in an area to which Tajikistan denied the United States access during its military withdrawal.
Through the summer, Russia’s leaders made clear who was calling the shots in regional diplomacy north of Afghanistan, while undercutting the Biden administration’s two initiatives in the region, the one on Afghan refugees and another on security aid.
At a conference in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, in July, Mr. Lavrov said he had discussed with Central Asian leaders the U.S. request to move some American military capabilities to their countries after the pullout. “None of our allies expressed any intention to expose their territories and populations to such risk,” he said.
Underscoring Russia’s growing sway in Afghanistan, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken called Mr. Lavrov on Monday to discuss the evacuation of Americans from Kabul, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Mr. Lavrov, the ministry said, described to Mr. Blinken Russia’s contacts “with representatives of all the main political forces in Afghanistan in the interest of helping to foster stability and rule of law.”
After the American-backed Afghan government collapsed on Sunday, Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, the Russian Senate, called in a Facebook post for strengthening a Russian-led military alliance with several Central Asian states, the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
“Russia can quickly restore its position in Central Asia,” Andrei Serenko, a reporter specializing in Afghan affairs at Nezavisimaya Gazeta, said in an interview. “It will put its security umbrella up in place of the disappearing American umbrella.”
Not everything is breaking Russia’s way in regional security matters. All things being equal, Mr. Dubnov said, Moscow would have been happy for the United States to remain in Afghanistan and for Washington to continue to shoulder the burden of preventing the country from becoming a haven for international terrorist groups. The Kremlin sees the possibility of Islamist extremists and drug traffickers crossing into post-Soviet republics in Central Asia, and from there into Russia, as a serious threat.
“It was of course a great deal for us when the Americans were doing the work of dragging the hotheads out of the fire over there,” Mr. Dubnov said.
The fear of a renewed threat was palpable this week at a small museum on Moscow’s outskirts dedicated to the Soviet Union’s disastrous, decade-long war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Photographs of young men from the neighborhood who lost their lives line a memorial alcove, surrounding a shrine made of a tank track, an artillery box, spent shells and artificial roses.
“You all have left, and everything is on fire again,” said the museum’s director, Igor Yerin, addressing Americans. “You didn’t put out the fire. The fire is only burning hotter.”
But the deputy head of the Russian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Dmitri Novikov, responding to E.U. diplomats’ concerns about rising Russian influence, said Western nations shouldn’t worry about Russia asserting itself in Afghanistan. There will be enough work to go around, he said.
“The painful problems that will exist there for decades to come won’t just be an internal problem,” he said, “but a problem for the whole world.”
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>>> Russia, China stage week-long military drills ahead of U.S.-South Korea exercises
UPI
8-10-21
by ByZarrin Ahmed
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/08/10/china-russia-military-exercises/2241628600073/
Aug. 10 (UPI) -- In a sign of deepening government and military cooperation, China and Russia have begun several days of joint military exercises, which are the first to take place on the Chinese mainland.
The drills, called Zapad/Interaction 2021, began on Monday and will run through Friday. The exercises are the fourth conducted by Beijing and Moscow and officials say they're focused on stabilizing the region.
The drills are being held in the Ningxia Hui autonomous region and will involve large numbers of aircraft and weapons systems and about 10,000 troops.
The joint exercises are the first to be held in China and will be the first time Russian troops use Chinese-made weapons.
Both nations have increased cooperation in recent years and share some antagonism toward Western governments.
The Russian and Chinese armies are planning more exercises for September.
The drills come as the United States and South Korea are also preparing joint military exercises in the region. Preliminary exercises began Tuesday and further drills are scheduled for next week.
Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, condemned the drills on Tuesday and said they threaten stability on the Korean Peninsula. North and South Korea have technically been at war since 1950.
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>>> Japan to Deploy Island Missile Defenses to Counter China Military Blockade
Newsweek
8-3-21
by John Feng
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/japan-to-deploy-island-missile-defenses-to-counter-china-military-blockade/ar-AAMTHUO?li=BBnb7Kz
Japan's top defense official has confirmed plans to place an additional "500 to 600" missile defense personnel on one of its westernmost islands in the Pacific, in a move that will boost allied capabilities to counter China's area denial tactics within the first island chain.
Nobuo Kishi told reporters on Tuesday that the government was hoping to deploy anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile units to Ishigaki, which is part of Okinawa Prefecture and lies toward the end of the Nansei island chain—just 185 miles from Taiwan and even closer to the disputed Senkaku Islands.
Kishi said a timeline for the deployment had not been finalized, but the defense ministry is reportedly aiming for the end of 2022, reports Tokyo's Yomiuri Shimbun. The official said the feasibility of stationing additional electronic warfare units in Japan's westernmost inhabited island of Yonaguni was also being studied as part of the 2023 defense budget.
In April, Kishi visited Japanese troops on Yonaguni and remarked on how he could almost see the coast of Taiwan, which is less than 70 miles away.
If the plans are realized, Japan will have bolstered the first island chain with further missile defenses on four Okinawa islands in the Western Pacific, including Miyako and the main Okinawa island where the majority of forward-deployed U.S. forces are stationed.
According to Yomiuri Shimbun, the additional ground forces are likely a direct response to China's expanding blue-water navy, which has sailed between the Miyako Strait in recent months and conducted drills in the Pacific.
A new unit will operate "surface-to-ship and ground-to-air missiles," while another "will handle the initial response phase in the event of a major disaster or armed attack," the paper said.
Analysts say China is developing what are known as anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities around first island chain choke points to prevent U.S. forces from intervening in a regional conflict, most likely over Taiwan.
However, as strategists predict Chinese carriers and warships will deploy to the east of Taiwan during a conflict rather than enter the narrow Taiwan Strait, Japan's own A2/AD capabilities could play a crucial role in preventing enemy vessels from reaching the Pacific.
On July 13, Japan's annual defense white paper raised serious concerns about Chinese coast guard activities around the Senkaku Islands, which Beijing also claims under the name Diaoyu. The document also made a historic first reference to the security of Taiwan.
In recent weeks, Tokyo has sent formal and informal signals suggesting the continuation of Taiwan's democracy is closely linked to its own national security. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has protested what it considers interference in its internal affairs.
On Monday, Kishi told the Financial Times that China was trying to "envelop Taiwan." He called on members of the international community to demand peace in the Taiwan Strait.
"Rather than a direct military collision between China and Taiwan, international society needs to pay greater attention to the survival of Taiwan," he was quoted as saying.
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>>> China Military Held Beach Assault Drill to Warn Taiwan, U.S.
Bloomberg News
July 18, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-18/china-military-held-beach-assault-drill-to-warn-taiwan-u-s-gt?srnd=premium
How Taiwan Became the Biggest Risk for a U.S.-China Clash
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army and Navy held joint amphibious landing exercises on Friday, a day after a second U.S. military aircraft landed on Taiwan in less than two months, the Communist Party-backed Global Times reported Sunday.
The exercises, in waters off the eastern province of Fujian near Taiwan, should be seen as warnings and a deterrent to the U.S. as well as “Taiwan secessionists,” the newspaper cited an unidentified military expert as saying. More complex drills will likely be staged in the future, the report said.
The drills followed the Chinese defense ministry’s warning on Thursday that foreign planes entering the country’s airspace without its approval would lead to “serious consequences.” A U.S. government aircraft landed at Taipei airport Thursday morning for about half an hour, United Daily News reported.
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>>> China says it 'drove away' U.S. warship on anniversary of tribunal ruling
Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-drove-away-us-warship-schina-sea-2021-07-12/
Summary
U.S. ship's passage flouted Chinese sovereignty -Beijing
Destroyer's route within international law -U.S. Navy
Hague court rejected Beijing's South China Sea claims
BEIJING, July 12 (Reuters) - China's military said it "drove away" a U.S. warship that illegally entered Chinese waters near the Paracel Islands on Monday, the anniversary of an international court ruling that held Beijing had no claim over the South China Sea.
The Chinese comments resembled the usual reaction from Beijing following freedom of navigation operations by U.S. warships held almost every month in the South China Sea.
The U.S. Navy destroyer Benfold entered the waters without China's approval, seriously violating its sovereignty and undermining the stability of the South China Sea, the southern theatre command of the People's Liberation Army said.
"We urge the United States to immediately stop such provocative actions," it said in a statement.
On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China had no historic title over the South China Sea, a ruling that Beijing said it would ignore.
The Benfold asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the vicinity of the Paracel Islands consistent with international law, the U.S. Navy said in a statement.
The islands are claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam, which require either permission or advance notification before a military vessel passes through.
"Under international law as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention, the ships of all states, including their warships, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea," the U.S. Navy added.
ROUTINE OPERATION
Hundreds of other islands, reefs and atolls in the resource-rich waterway are contested by Brunei, China, Malaysia and the Philippines. China claims rights to resources within its so-called nine-dash line, or most of the region.
"By conducting this operation, the United States demonstrated that these waters are beyond what China can lawfully claim as its territorial sea, and that China's claimed straight baselines around the Paracel Islands are inconsistent with international law," the U.S. Navy said.
Two U.S. defense officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the operation was routine as was the Chinese reaction - and not something that was causing concern in the Pentagon.
In its 2016 ruling, the Hague court also said China had interfered with traditional Philippine fishing rights at Scarborough Shoal and breached the country's sovereign rights by exploring for oil and gas near the Reed Bank.
Freedom of the seas is an "enduring" interest of all nations, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday.
"Nowhere is the rules-based maritime order under greater threat than in the South China Sea," he said in a statement.
"The People's Republic of China continues to coerce and intimidate Southeast Asian coastal states, threatening freedom of navigation in this critical global throughway."
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a regular briefing on Monday that the United States was harming peace and stability in the region.
In the Philippines, more than 100 activists gathered outside a building housing the Chinese consulate to press Beijing to respect the arbitral ruling and allow Filipinos to freely fish in the South China Sea.
The crowd marched with a Philippine flag and banners reading: "China get out of the West Philippine Sea" and "China out of our waters".
Manila refers to the part of the South China Sea that it claims as the West Philippine Sea.
"Since our tribunal ruling victory, there were no changes. There's still the presence of the Chinese Coast Guard, the Chinese militia...in the West Philippine Sea," said Fernando Hicap, head of a federation of small fisherfolk groups.
Reporting by Ryan Woo with additional reporting by Jay Ereno in Manila; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Chizu Nomiyama and Mark Heinrich
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>>> Biden orders airstrikes on Iran-backed militias near Iraq-Syria border
MSN
6-27-21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-orders-airstrikes-on-iran-backed-militias-near-iraq-syria-border/ar-AALvA8Y?li=BBnb7Kz
President Joe Biden ordered airstrikes this weekend on Iran-backed militias near the Iraq-Syria border in response to unmanned aerial vehicle attacks, according to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby.
"At President Biden's direction, U.S. military forces earlier this evening conducted defensive precision airstrikes against facilities used by Iran-backed militia groups in the Iraq-Syria border region," Kirby said in a statement Sunday. "The targets were selected because these facilities are utilized by Iran-backed militias that are engaged in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against U.S. personnel and facilities in Iraq."
Kirby said the U.S. acted within its legal rights and said the airstrikes were a matter of self-defense.
"The strikes were both necessary to address the threat and appropriately limited in scope," Kirby's statement said. "As a matter of domestic law, the President took this action pursuant to his Article II authority to protect U.S. personnel in Iraq."
U.S. Air Force F-15s and F-16s from U.S. bases in the Central Command region carried out Sunday's airstrikes with precision-guided munitions at about 6 p.m. ET, a defense official told ABC News. The official said it's too early to know if there were any militia or civilian casualties.
The sites hit by the U.S. were determined to have had command, control and logistics capabilities, the official said.
A defense official said this is the second such attack ordered under the Biden administration, the last being on Feb. 25 against Iranian-backed militia groups in response to rocket attacks.
Since April, there have been five "one-way UAV attacks," as well as "ongoing rocket attacks," on U.S. and coalition facilities in the region, according to Pentagon spokesperson Cmdr. Jessica McNulty
There were no U.S. or coalition casualties from those five attacks, a defense official confirmed.
“The strikes were necessary, appropriate, and deliberate action designed to limit the risk of escalation," McNulty said in a statement. "Through these and other means, we seek to make clear to Iran and Iran-backed militia groups that there will be serious consequences if they continue to attack, or to arm, fund, and train militia groups that attack our people. We will take necessary and appropriate measures to defend U.S. personnel, partners, and allies in the region.”
As Biden returned to the White House Sunday from Camp David, the president did not answer questions shouted from reporters about the airstrikes.
<<<
>>> China’s New Aircraft Carrier Killer Is World’s Largest Air-Launched Missile
H I Sutton sheds some light on China's latest aircraft carrier killer:
The CH-AS-X-13 air-launched anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).
H I Sutton
Nov 1, 2020
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/11/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-killer-is-worlds-largest-air-launched-missile/
Navies are racing to develop hypersonic missiles which may change the pace of naval warfare. Russia will deploy the Zircon hypersonic missile aboard warships and submarines. The US Navy has started down the path of the common hypersonic glide body (c-HGB) for its destroyers. Meanwhile China’s latest hypersonic weapon is something completely different; it is air launched.
The massive new missile, labelled CH-AS-X-13, is probably the largest air-launched missile in the world.
The missile was first reported by Ankit Panda, the Stanton Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in April 2018. More recently candid images have appeared on Chinese social media. These provide a clearer view of the novel weapon.
Analysts believe that it may be intended to target high-value warships, particularly aircraft carriers. This makes it an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). And it appears to be carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). This may give it extended range and increase survivability against air defenses.
The CH-AS-X-13 may be closely related to the ground based DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile. Image analysis suggests that it has different dimensions however, so may use a different rocket motor. The most likely reason for this would be the physical restrictions imposed by carrying it under an H-6 bomber. Additionally it appears to be equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) similar to the one seen on the DF-17 ballistic missile. Clearer images in the future may clarify this.
The DF-21D is believed to have a range in excess of 1,500 km. The CH-AS-X-13 may have a similar range, or possibly further due to the aerial launch and a hypersonic glide vehicle. Either way, being carried by a bomber will massively increase its overall reach. The H-6N version which carries it has aerial refueling to further increase their range. The CH-AS-X-13 is therefore a threat beyond the first island chain and South China Sea. It could potentially hit targets in the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean, or Indian Ocean.
Even if the missile has this incredible range it will face challenges reaching its full potential. Finding and tracking an aircraft carrier at extreme ranges may be the Achilles’ heel. And a lot may depend on the survivability of the bomber itself, and the number of aircraft available for the mission. Context, of course is everything.
The H-6 bomber is not limited to the CH-AS-X-15 however. It can also carry a range of anti-ship missiles. Foremost among these is the YJ-12 supersonic missile. This is similar to the Russian Kh-31 (AS-17 Krypton) missile, but significantly larger. At least four YJ-12s can be carried, meaning that a squadron of bombers could launch a saturation attack on a Carrier Battle Group. The subsonic KD-63 (also commonly referred to as the YJ-63) can also be carried.
Having anti-ship ballistic missiles may also be used to message China’s potential adversaries. On August 26 China test fired a DF-21D ASBM into the South China Sea. This was just weeks after the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan had been exercising in the area. The CH-AS-X-13 adds another dimension to the threat to carrier battle groups, so its development alone can be seen as sending a clear message of China’s increasing military confidence.
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>>> Russia reveals deployment of nuclear-capable bombers to Syria airbase
Moscow has reportedly landed Tupolev Tu-22 bombers at Syria's Hmeimim Air Base for the first time.
AL-Monitor
Russia in Syria
May 25, 2021
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/05/russia-reveals-deployment-nuclear-capable-bombers-syria-airbase
Russia has based nuclear-capable bomber aircraft on the Mediterranean for the first time, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said Tuesday.
Three Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range bombers were sent to Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base in western Syria after improvements were made to runways at the site. The aircraft will participate in training exercises over the eastern Mediterranean before returning to Russia, the ministry said.
If confirmed, the deployment would demonstrate an extension of Russia’s aircraft-based nuclear strike range well into the Middle East and Mediterranean region. Moscow has flown Tu-22s in combat missions in Syria before, but they were not based in the country.
Video purporting to show a Tu-22M over Latakia with landing gear extended circulated on Twitter and Telegram Monday prior to the Defense Ministry's statement.
Hmeimim was constructed in 2015 as the Russian military’s central base of operations in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad amid the country’s civil war. The Kremlin retains the base as a main node of its long-term military presence in Syria alongside the naval base at Tartus.
The airbase has allowed Moscow to extend its reach into North Africa, where it intervened in Libya on behalf of rogue commander Khalifa Hifter in his 2019-2020 offensive against the UN-backed Libyan government in Tripoli.
Russia has flown thousands of Syrian mercenaries and its own Wagner paramilitary contractors into Libya via Hmeimim and shows little interest in removing its forces from the North African country despite requirements under the UN-backed cease-fire.
The vast majority of Russia’s senior military commanders have gained combat experience in Syria and have incorporated that experience into training and exercises, President Vladimir Putin claimed in Sochi on Tuesday.
Moscow’s use of Syria to project its power on the Mediterranean has been closely watched by Western military strategists.
The head of US forces in Africa, Gen. Stephen Townsend, warned Congress last year that Russia’s introduction of fighter aircraft into Libya could foreshadow the arrival of Russian air defenses, a move that would likely hamper NATO’s access to its southern flank.
That concern helped spur Washington into leading a diplomatic push to de-escalate Libya’s spiraling proxy war last year.
Washington has continued to bolster military ties with Libya’s westerly neighbors amid Russia’s inroads into the region, moves the commander of US forces in the Middle East Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie has described as opportunist.
McKenzie has advocated additional weapons sales to US allies in the region as a way to dampen local governments' interest in Russian military technology and reduce their dependence on US forces in the region, Al-Monitor has reported.
Last November, the US Army announced it was consolidating command of its forces in Europe and Africa into a single headquarters.
The move was aimed at shoring up NATO’s southern flank and came at the direction of US Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, who serves as NATO’s most senior commander and the head of all US forces in Europe.
Russian Su-27 fighter aircraft intercepted and flew alongside a US nuclear-capable B-52H bomber over the Baltic Sea last week in the latest of a running series of aerial encounters between the two adversaries.
The Kremlin confirmed on Tuesday that Putin would meet with President Joe Biden for a summit in Geneva on June 16.
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>>> National Reconnaissance Office
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Reconnaissance_Office
Agency overview
Formed Established: September 6, 1961
Declassified: September 18, 1992
Jurisdiction United States
Headquarters Chantilly, Virginia, U.S.
Motto Supra Et Ultra
(Above And Beyond)
Annual budget Classified
Agency executive
Christopher Scolese[1], Director
Troy Meink[2], Principal Deputy Director
Major General Michael A. Guetlein[3], Deputy Director
Parent agency Department of Defense
Website - www.nro.gov
The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is a member of the United States Intelligence Community and an agency of the United States Department of Defense which designs, builds, launches, and operates the reconnaissance satellites of the U.S. federal government, and provides satellite intelligence to several government agencies, particularly signals intelligence (SIGINT) to the NSA, imagery intelligence (IMINT) to the NGA, and measurement and signature intelligence (MASINT) to the DIA.[4]
NRO is considered, along with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), National Security Agency (NSA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), to be one of the "big five" U.S. intelligence agencies.[5] The NRO is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia,[6] 2 miles (3.2 km) south of the Washington Dulles International Airport.
The Director of the NRO reports to both the Director of National Intelligence and the Secretary of Defense.[7] The NRO's federal workforce is a hybrid organization consisting of some 3000 personnel including NRO cadre, Air Force, Army, CIA, NGA, NSA, Navy and US Space Force [8] personnel.[9] A 1996 bipartisan commission report described the NRO as having by far the largest budget of any intelligence agency, and "virtually no federal workforce", accomplishing most of its work through "tens of thousands" of defense contractor personnel.[10]
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>>> US Air Force Opens Remote Sensing Systems Directorate
Satellite Today
By Caleb Henry
April 22, 2015
https://www.satellitetoday.com/government-military/2015/04/22/us-air-force-opens-remote-sensing-systems-directorate/
SMC Remote Sensing Directorate
The United States Air Force has combined the Infrared Space Systems and the Defense Weather Systems directorates into a single unit. The new Remote Sensing System Directorate is responsible for both the Air Force’s Overhead Persistent Infrared mission area, which gives missile warning, missile defense, battle-space awareness, technical intelligence, and civil support as well as the environmental monitoring mission, including space and terrestrial weather monitoring.
“By merging two world-class acquisition teams, we intend to deliver ground-breaking new products and leverage existing and planned national security space platforms to create more affordable and resilient capabilities. We believe there are meaningful operational efficiencies, and cross-platform synergies that will yield operational benefits to our warfighters,” said Colonel Mike Guetlein, director of the new organization.
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>>> Israel and Greece sign record defense deal
Reuters
April 18, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-israel-greece-sign-record-073303749.html
JERUSALEM, April 18 (Reuters) - Israel and Greece have signed their biggest ever defense procurement deal, which Israel said on Sunday would strengthen political and economic ties between the countries and the two countries' air forces launched a joint exercise.
The agreement includes a $1.65 billion contract for the establishment and operation of a training centre for the Hellenic Air Force by Israeli defense contractor Elbit Systems over a 22-year period, Israel's defense ministry said.
The training centre will be modelled on Israel's own flight academy and will be equipped with 10 M-346 training aircraft produced by Italy's Leonardo, the ministry said.
Elbit will supply kits to upgrade and operate Greece's T-6 aircraft and also provide training, simulators and logistical support.
"I am certain that (this programme) will upgrade the capabilities and strengthen the economies of Israel and Greece and thus the partnership between our two countries will deepen on the defense, economic and political levels," said Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
The announcement follows a meeting in Cyprus on Friday between the UAE, Greek, Cypriot and Israeli foreign ministers, who agreed to deepen cooperation.
The Israeli and Greek air forces on Sunday launched a joint exercise in Greece, the Israeli military said.
In at least one past exercise over Greece, Israeli fighter planes practised against an S-300 posted on Crete. The Russian-made air defense system is also deployed in Syria and Iran, Israel's foes.
A source in the Hellenic National Defense Command said the S-300 had not been activated in the joint exercise that began Sunday.
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>>> Amid Iranian threats, US orders USS Nimitz to remain in Middle East
CNN
By Michael Callahan and Nicole Gaouette,
1-3-21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/amid-iranian-threats-us-orders-uss-nimitz-to-remain-in-middle-east/ar-BB1crK3k?ocid=uxbndlbing
Days after ordering a United States aircraft carrier out of the Middle East, the country's acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller has reversed that decision, instructing the USS Nimitz to remain in place due to purported Iranian threats "against President Trump and other US government officials."
Miller said in a statement Sunday night that he had "ordered the USS Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment." The carrier will now "remain on station in the US Central Command area of operations," Miller added. "No one should doubt the resolve of the United States of America."
Last week, the acting Defense Secretary had decided against a push to extend the carrier's deployment in the Persian Gulf, a surprising move given rising tensions between Washington and Tehran around the anniversary of the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last year. In the last days of 2020, the US flew nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the Middle East, prompting a senior Iranian military adviser to tweet directly at Trump, warning him "not to turn the New Year into a mourning for Americans."
Iran appealed to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday to stop the US from conducting what it called heightened "military adventurism" in the Gulf and the Oman Sea, including dispatching nuclear-capable bombers to the region, declaring that it did not want conflict but would defend itself if necessary.
According to US sources, some Iranian military forces have ramped up their readiness levels in recent days, having moved short-range ballistic missiles into Iraq, where they could potentially strike at US bases, as Iran did in the days following Soleimani's killing last year.
Video: US defense officials split on potential for Iranian attack (CNN)
Trump has taken a consistently hard line on Iran, with the two countries appearing close to war around the time of Soleimani's death, though tensions had relaxed considerably during the coronavirus pandemic.
With the President's time in office running out, some analysts in Washington speculate Trump could trigger a conflict with Iran to distract from his failing, baseless attempts to overturn his election loss and to complicate his successor's plans for the region.
"I'm genuinely concerned that the President could be thinking about saddling President-elect Biden with some kind of military operation on his way out the door," said Tom Nichols, an international affairs expert who teaches at the US Naval War College.
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif himself charged Thursday that Trump is creating a pretext for war.
President-elect Joe Biden wants to ease Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran, resume engagement and return to the Iran nuclear deal, all steps that hawks in the Trump administration vehemently oppose -- and all reasons, some analysts say, that if Iran conducts any kind of attack, it would be carefully calibrated.
"Iran represents a real threat to US national security, particularly during this period of heightened risk due to the upcoming anniversary of the Soleimani assassination," said Sam Vinograd, a former National Security Council official and CNN analyst.
However, Vinograd added, "I do think Iran will calibrate any attack associated with this anniversary because they do not want to box themselves in ahead of Biden coming into office and ostensibly restarting nuclear negotiations that would lead to the lifting of sanctions."
<<<
$KULR is making important contributions to the safety and effectiveness of vital battery technology for our armed forces
Report by Naval Surface Warfare Center Validates Efficacy of KULR’s Battery Safety Technology
SAN DIEGO, Dec. 10, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- KULR Technology Group, Inc. (OTCQB: KULR) (the “Company” or “KULR”), a leading developer of next-generation thermal management technologies, today highlights a report conducted by the Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division (NSWCCD) on the Company’s battery safety technology. The report confirms that KULR’s thermal management solutions can prevent cell-to-cell propagation. These findings mirror test results from other government and private test authorities such as NASA, which co-developed KULR’s core thermal technology.
The NSWCCD report, titled, “Emerging Energy Storage Technologies,” studied energy storage applications in consumer electronics, along with the safety concerns they pose. The newly public report, commissioned and released by the Consumer Product Safety Commission, states that:
“Incorporating a vaporizing heat sink from KULR could lead to significant mass savings and … was capable of preventing cell-to-cell propagations. … [battery] packs assembled and tested at NSWCCD with the KULR material (the Thermal Runaway Shield or “TRS”) were found to be highly effective at resisting cell-to-cell propagation when a trigger cell was externally heated to failure. Meanwhile, identical cells with identical configuration but no TRS underwent a complete cell-to-cell propagation under the same test conditions.”
Conditions such as extreme heat, bumping and jostling, short circuit, constant high-demand use, or physical damage can cause a single battery cell in a multi-cell pack to fail. When this happens, the fire and heat of that single failure often trigger failure in neighboring cells. This causes a dangerous chain reaction that causes high energy fires and explosions. According to the NSWCCD report, it is these types of runaway or propagation risks that KULR’s solutions are capable of preventing.
In addition to supporting the effectiveness of the KULR safety product(s) in lithium-ion battery packs, the report highlights storage alternatives to lithium-ion batteries such as solid state or lithium metal configurations.
The report states:
“The overall conclusion from the authors of this report is that LiB [lithium-ion batteries] are likely to maintain if not increase application in consumer electronics. For this reason, the safety of these devices may have to be engineered through secondary technologies…”
“This report is highly significant for two reasons,” said Michael Mo, CEO of KULR. “First, it shows that lithium-ion batteries will not be replaced anytime soon, which makes preventing cell-to-cell propagation fires the holy grail of battery safety. Second, the results again confirm that our design solution efficiently prevents battery packs from blowing up, which has major implications across various multi-billion-dollar market verticals.”
Bob Richard, president of Hazmat Safety Consulting, remarked, “There is a real need to improve lithium battery safety. Multiple government agencies are focused on technologies that can reduce the likelihood of battery fires in transport (e.g. aircraft cargo compartments), for energy storage, vehicle applications, and consumer electronics. The test results on KULR’s thermal management solution are quite remarkable and very encouraging.”
KULR recently announced research and design partnerships with a number of commercial partners, including Drako Motors, the super-EV; a separate Tier-1 automaker; a major power tool manufacturer; a large medical device manufacturer; a shipping container maker; and defense and aerospace agreements.
The KULR suite of thermal management and battery safety solutions have been deployed in space. In July 2020, a KULR thermal solution was part of the Mars Rover mission; another KULR product has been in use aboard the International Space Station since 2019.
About KULR Technology Group, Inc.
KULR Technology Group, Inc. (OTCQB: KULR) develops, manufactures and licenses next-generation carbon fiber thermal management technologies for batteries and electronic systems. Leveraging the company’s roots in developing breakthrough cooling solutions for NASA space missions and backed by a strong intellectual property portfolio, KULR enables leading aerospace, electronics, energy storage, 5G infrastructure, and electric vehicle manufacturers to make their products cooler, lighter and safer for the consumer. For more information, please visit www.kulrtechnology.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy any securities of any entity. This release contains certain forward-looking statements based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements in this release are based on information available to us as of the date hereof. Our actual results may differ materially from those stated or implied in such forward-looking statements, due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business, which include the risk factors disclosed in our Form 10-K filed on May 14, 2020. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our expectations, beliefs, intentions or strategies regarding the future and can be identified by forward-looking words such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "should," and "would" or similar words. All forecasts are provided by management in this release are based on information available at this time and management expects that internal projections and expectations may change over time. In addition, the forecasts are entirely on management’s best estimate of our future financial performance given our current contracts, current backlog of opportunities and conversations with new and existing customers about our products and services. We assume no obligation to update the information included in this press release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Media Contact: Investor Relations:
Derek Newton KULR Technology Group, Inc.
Head, Media Relations Main: (888) 367-5559
Main: (786) 499-8998 ir@kulrtechnology.com
derek.newton@kulrtechnology.com
>>> Divide and rule
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For the algorithmic strategy used in Computer Science, see Divide and conquer algorithm. For the novella by L. Sprague de Camp, see Divide and Rule (novella). For the collection of novellas by L. Sprague de Camp, see Divide and Rule (collection).
Not to be confused with divide and choose.
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Tradition attributes the origin of the motto to Philip II of Macedon: Greek: d?a??e? ?a? ßas??e?e diaírei kài basíleue, in ancient Greek: «divide and rule»
Divide and rule (Latin: divide et impera), or divide and conquer, in politics and sociology is gaining and maintaining power by breaking up larger concentrations of power into pieces that individually have less power than the one implementing the strategy.[citation needed]
The use of this technique is meant to empower the sovereign to control subjects, populations, or factions of different interests, who collectively might be able to oppose his rule. Niccolò Machiavelli identifies a similar application to military strategy, advising in Book VI of The Art of War (1521)[1] (L'arte della guerra):[2] a Captain should endeavor with every art to divide the forces of the enemy. Machiavelli advises that this act should be achieved either by making him suspicious of his men in whom he trusted, or by giving him cause that he has to separate his forces, and, because of this, become weaker.
The maxim divide et impera has been attributed to Philip II of Macedon. It was utilised by the Roman ruler Julius Caesar and the French emperor Napoleon (together with the maxim divide ut regnes)
The strategy, but not the phrase, applies in many ancient cases: the example of Aulus Gabinius exists, parting the Jewish nation into five conventions, reported by Flavius Josephus in Book I, 169–170 of The Jewish War (De bello Judaico).[3] Strabo also reports in Geographica, 8.7.3[4] that the Achaean League was gradually dissolved under the Roman possession of the whole of Macedonia, owing to their not dealing with the several states in the same way, but wishing to preserve some and to destroy others.
The strategy of division and rule has been attributed to sovereigns, ranging from Louis XI of France to the House of Habsburg. Edward Coke denounces it in Chapter I of the Fourth Part of the Institutes of the Lawes of England, reporting that when it was demanded by the Lords and Commons what might be a principal motive for them to have good success in Parliament, it was answered: "Eritis insuperabiles, si fueritis inseparabiles. Explosum est illud diverbium: Divide, & impera, cum radix & vertex imperii in obedientium consensu rata sunt." [You would be invincible if you were inseparable. This proverb, Divide and rule, has been rejected, since the root and the summit of authority are confirmed by the consent of the subjects.] In a minor variation, Sir Francis Bacon wrote the phrase "separa et impera" in a letter to James I of 15 February 1615. James Madison made this recommendation in a letter to Thomas Jefferson of 24 October 1787,[5] which summarized the thesis of The Federalist#10:[6] "Divide et impera, the reprobated axiom of tyranny, is under certain (some) qualifications, the only policy, by which a republic can be administered on just principles." In Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch by Immanuel Kant (1795), Appendix one, Divide et impera is the third of three political maxims, the others being Fac et excusa (Act now, and make excuses later) and Si fecisti, nega (If you commit a crime, deny it).[7]
Elements of this technique involve:
creating or encouraging divisions among the subjects to prevent alliances that could challenge the sovereign
aiding and promoting those who are willing to cooperate with the sovereign
fostering distrust and enmity between local rulers
encouraging meaningless expenditures that reduce the capability for political and military spending
Historically, this strategy was used in many different ways by empires seeking to expand their territories.
Immanuel Kant was an advocate of this tactic, noting that "the problem of setting up a state can be solved even by a nation of devils" so long as they possess an appropriate constitution which pits opposing factions against each other with a system of checks and balances.[8]
The concept is also mentioned as a strategy for market action in economics to get the most out of the players in a competitive market.
Contents
1 Foreign policy
2 Politics
3 Psychopathy in the workplace
4 Historical examples
4.1 Africa
4.2 Asia
4.2.1 Mongolian Empire
4.2.2 Indian subcontinent
4.2.3 Middle East
4.3 Europe
4.4 Mexico
4.5 USA
5 See also
6 References
7 External links
Foreign policy
Divide and rule can be used by states to weaken enemy military alliances. This usually happens when propaganda is disseminated within the enemy states in an attempt to raise doubts about the alliance. Once the alliance weakens or dissolves, a vacuum will allow the state to achieve military dominance.
Politics
In politics, the concept refers to a strategy that breaks up existing power structures, and especially prevents smaller power groups from linking up, causing rivalries and fomenting discord among the people to prevent a rebellion against the elites or the people implementing the strategy. The goal is either to pit the lower classes against themselves to prevent a revolution, or to provide a desired solution to the growing discord that strengthens the power of the elites.[9]
The principle "divide et impera" is cited as a common in politics by Traiano Boccalini in La bilancia politica.[10]
Psychopathy in the workplace
Main article: Psychopathy in the workplace
Clive R. Boddy found that "divide and conquer" was a common strategy by corporate psychopaths used as a smokescreen to help consolidate and advance their grip on power in the corporate hierarchy.[11]
Historical examples
Africa
During the period of Nigeria being under colonial rule from 1900 to 1960, different regions were frequently reclassified for administrative purposes. The resulting tensions between Nigerian ethnic groups such as the Igbo and Hausa made it easier for the colonial authorities to consolidate their power in the region.[citation needed][12]
Asia
Mongolian Empire
While the Mongols imported Central Asian Muslims to serve as administrators in China, the Mongols also sent Han Chinese and Khitans from China to serve as administrators over the Muslim population in Bukhara in Central Asia, using foreigners to curtail the power of the local peoples of both lands.[13]
Indian subcontinent
Some Indians historians, such as politician Shashi Tharoor, assert that the British Raj frequently used this tactic to consolidate their rule and prevent the emergence of the Indian independence movement.[14] A Times Literary Supplement review by British historian Jon Wilson suggests that although this was broadly the case a more nuanced approach might be closer to the facts.[15] In the same vein, Indian politician Markandey Katju wrote in The Nation:[16]
It was Emperor Akbar who laid the foundation on which the Indian nation is still standing, his policy being continued by Jawaharlal Nehru and his colleagues who gave India a secular constitution. Up to 1857, there were no communal problems in India; all communal riots and animosity began after 1857. No doubt even before 1857, there were differences between Hindus and Muslims, the Hindus going to temples and the Muslims going to mosques, but there was no animosity. In fact, the Hindus and Muslims used to help each other; Hindus used to participate in Eid celebrations, and Muslims in Holi and Diwali. The Muslim rulers like the Mughals, Nawab of Awadh and Murshidabad, Tipu Sultan, etc were totally secular; they organised Ramlilas, participated in Holi, Diwali, etc. Ghalib’s affectionate letters to his Hindu friends like Munshi Shiv Naraln Aram, Har Gopal Tofta, etc attest to the affection between Hindus and Muslims at that time. In 1857, the ‘Great Mutiny’ broke out in which the Hindus and Muslims jointly fought against the British. This shocked the British government so much that after suppressing the Mutiny, they decided to start the policy of divide and rule (see online “History in the Service of Imperialism” by B.N. Pande). All communal riots began after 1857, artificially engineered by the British authorities. The British collector would secretly call the Hindu Pandit, pay him money, and tell him to speak against Muslims, and similarly he would secretly call the Maulvi, pay him money, and tell him to speak against Hindus. This communal poison was injected into our body politic year after year and decade after decade.[16]
Middle East
Some analysts assert that the United States is practicing the strategy in the 21st-century Middle East through their supposed escalation of the Sunni–Shia conflict. British journalist Nafeez Ahmed cited a 2008 RAND Corporation study for the U.S Armed Forces which recommended "divide and rule" as a possible strategy against the Muslim world in "the Long War".[17] British historian Christopher Davidson argues that the current crisis in Yemen is being "egged on" by the United States government, and could be part of a wider covert strategy to "spur fragmentation in Iran allies and allow Israel to be surrounded by weak states”.[18]
Europe
Herodotus, (Histories, 5.3) claimed that the Thracians would be the strongest nation in the world if they were united.
Athenian historian Thucydides in his book History of the Peloponnesian War claimed that Alcibiades recommended to Persian statesman Tissaphernes, to weaken both Athens and Sparta for his own Persian's benefit. Alcibiades, suggested to Tissaphernes that 'The cheapest plan was to let the Hellenes wear each other out, at a small share of the expense and without risk to himself. [19]
Tacitus in Germania. chapter 33 writes "Long, I pray, may foreign nations persist in hating one another .... and fortune can bestow on us no better gift than discord among our foes."
The Romans invaded the Kingdom of Macedonia from the south and defeated King Perseus in the Battle of Pydna in 168 BC. Macedonia was then divided into four republics that were heavily restricted from relations with one another and other Hellenic states. A ruthless purge occurred, with allegedly anti-Roman citizens being denounced by their compatriots and forcibly deported in large numbers.[citation needed]
During the Gallic Wars, Ceasar was able to use a divide and conquer strategy to easily defeat the Gauls. By the time the Gauls united under Vercingetorix, it was already too late for them.[20][21]
In Revolutions of 1848, the governments which were being revolted against used this tactic to counter the rebels.[22][23]
The Salami strategy of Hungarian Communist leader, Mátyás Rákosi.[citation needed]
The colonial authorities in British Cyprus often stirred up the Turkish minority in order to neutralize agitation from the Greek majority.[24][25] This policy intentionally cultivated further animosity between the already divided Greek majority and the Turkish minority (which consists of 18% of the population) in the island that remains divided to this day after an invasion by Turkey to establish the state of North Cyprus (which is only diplomatically recognized by Turkey.[26]
Mexico
Chiapas conflict
USA
Harry G. Broadman opined in Forbes regarding President Donald Trump: "[a]s in his campaign, the President has been successfully—at least to date—pursuing a divide and conquer strategy domestically and internationally to try to achieve his goals. The result is an absence of a robust set of checks and balances to ensure that the best economic interests of the U.S. and the world will be served."[27]
See also
Control freak
Culture of fear
Defeat in detail
Destabilisation
Flying monkeys (psychology)
Identity politics
Marginalization
Playing one person against another
Smoke screen
Social undermining
Triangulation (psychology)
Wedge issue
References
http://etext.library.adelaide.edu.au Archived 25 June 2007 at the Wayback Machine
"Dell'arte della guerra: testo - IntraText CT". intratext.com.
"Flavius Josephus, The Wars of the Jews, Book I, section 159". Perseus Project. Retrieved 27 August 2011.
"Strabo, Geography, Book 8, chapter 7, section 1". Perseus Project. Retrieved 27 August 2011.
"Constitutional Government: James Madison to Thomas Jefferson". Press-pubs.uchicago.edu. Retrieved 27 August 2011.
"The Federalist #10". constitution.org.
"Immanuel Kant: Perpetual Peace: Appendix I". Constitution.org. Retrieved 27 August 2011.
Kant: Political Writings, H.S. Reiss, 2013
Xypolia, Ilia (2016). "Divide et Impera: Vertical and Horizontal Dimensions of British Imperialism" (PDF). Critique: Journal of Socialist Theory. 44 (3): 221–231. doi:10.1080/03017605.2016.1199629. hdl:2164/9956. p. 221.
1 §136 and 2 §225
Boddy, C. R. Corporate Psychopaths: Organizational Destroyers (2011)
"HISTORY OF NIGERIA". historyworld.net.
Buell, Paul D. (1979). "Sino-Khitan Administration in Mongol Bukhara". Journal of Asian History. Harrassowitz Verlag. 13 (2): 137–8. JSTOR 41930343.
Shashi Tharoor - Inglorious Empire What the British Did to India
Wilson, Jon, 2016, India Conquered: Britain's Raj and the chaos of empire, cited in a review of Tharoor's work by Elizabeth Buettner in "Debt of Honour: why the European impact on India must be fully acknowledged", Times Literary Supplement, August 11, 2017, pages 13-14.
Markandey Katju. "The truth about Pakistan". The Nation. Archived from the original on 10 November 2013. Retrieved 29 January 2019.
Pernin, Christopher G.; et al. (2008). "Unfolding the Future of the Long War" (PDF). US Army Training and Doctrine Command's Army Capability Integration Center – via RAND Arroyo.
"The Pentagon plan to 'divide and rule' the Muslim world". Middle East Eye. Retrieved 29 June 2018.
Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, 8.46.2
"France: The Roman conquest". Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved 6 April 2015. Because of chronic internal rivalries, Gallic resistance was easily broken, though Vercingetorix's Great Rebellion of 52 bce had notable successes.
"Julius Caesar: The first triumvirate and the conquest of Gaul". Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved 15 February 2015. Indeed, the Gallic cavalry was probably superior to the Roman, horseman for horseman. Rome's military superiority lay in its mastery of strategy, tactics, discipline, and military engineering. In Gaul, Rome also had the advantage of being able to deal separately with dozens of relatively small, independent, and uncooperative states. Caesar conquered these piecemeal, and the concerted attempt made by a number of them in 52 bce to shake off the Roman yoke came too late.
Edmund Maurice, C. (11 December 2019). "The Revolutionary Movement of 1848-9 in Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Germany: With Some Examination of the Previous Thirty-three Years".
Magocsi, Paul Robert (18 June 2010). A History of Ukraine: The Land and Its Peoples, Second Edition. ISBN 9781442698796.
Grob-Fitzgibbon, Benjamin (2011). Imperial Endgame: Britain's Dirty Wars and the End of Empire. Palgrave Macmillan. p. 285. ISBN 978-0-230-30038-5.
Jordan, Preston Lim (2018). The Evolution of British Counter-Insurgency during the Cyprus Revolt, 1955–1959. Springer. p. 58. ISBN 9783319916200.
"International Justice: The Case of Cyprus". Washington, D.C.: The HuffPost. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
We All Should Worry About Trump's 'Divide And Conquer' Trade Policy, forbes.com, 29 June 2018
<<<
>>> ‘Drone Swarm’ Invaded Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant Last September — Twice
Forbes
7-30-20
by David Hambling
Aerospace & Defense
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/07/30/drone-swarm-invaded-palo-verde-nuclear-power-plant/#41e9f33943de
I'm a South London-based technology journalist, consultant and author
Documents gained under the Freedom of Information Act show how a number of small drones flew around a restricted area at Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant on two successive nights last September. Security forces watched, but were apparently helpless to act as the drones carried out their incursions before disappearing into the night. Details of the event gives some clues as to just what they were doing, but who sent them remains a mystery.
Details of the events were obtained from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Douglas D. Johnson on behalf of the Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (SCU) using the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). The SCU’s main interest is in anomalous aerospace phenomena, what other people term UFOs. In this case though the flying objects were easily identifiable as drones, although their exact mission and origin are unknown. Johnson passed the information to The War Zone who give a detailed account.
Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant is the largest in the U.S., producing over three gigawatts, 35% of Arizona's total power capacity. It supplies electricity to Phoenix and Tucson, as well as San Diego and Los Angeles. It is a critical piece of strategic infrastructure; during the 2003 Iraq War, National Guard troops were deployed to Palo Verde to defend against a possible terrorist threat. In normal times, as with other nuclear installations, it is protected by armed security guards.
The armed guards, gates, fences and barriers were useless on the night of September 29th. According to the official report:
“Officer noticed several drones (5 or 6) flying over the site. The drones are circling the 3 unit site inside and outside the Protected Area. The drones have flashing red and white rights [sic] and are estimated to be 200 to 300 hundred [sic] feet above the site. It was reported the drones had spotlights on while approaching the site that they turned off when they entered the Security Owner Controlled Area. Drones were first noticed at 20:50 MST and are still over the site as of 21:47 MST. Security Posture was normal, which was changed to elevated when the drones were noticed.”
The drones departed at 22:30, eighty minutes after they were first spotted. The security officers estimated that they were over two feet in diameter. This indicates that they were not simply consumer drones like the popular DJI Phantom, which have a flight endurance of about half an hour and is about a foot across, but something larger and more capable. The Lockheed Martin Indago, a military-grade quadcopter recently sold to the Swiss Army, has a flight endurance of about seventy minutes and is more than two feet across. At several thousand dollars apiece minimum, these are far less expendable than consumer drones costing a few hundred. All of which suggests this was not just a prank.
The next night events were repeated:
“Four (4) drones were observed flying beginning at 20:51 MST and continuing through the time of this report (21:13 MST). As occurred last night, the drones are flying in, through, and around the owner-controlled area, the security owner-controlled area, and the protected area. Also, as last night, the drones are described as large with red and white flashing lights.”
Local police from Maricopa County were dispatched to find the drone operators, but with no success. The site is reportedly due to receive drone detection gear, but not counter-drone jammers or other defensive equipment that might stop such incursions.
Despite this incident, two months later the NRC decided not to require drone defenses at nuclear plants, asserting that small drones could not damage a reactor or steal nuclear material. It is highly likely that such sites are still vulnerable to drone overflights.
Are such drones a genuine threat to nuclear facilities? Many argue that because reactors are protected by two to three feet of concrete, able to withstand the impact of a small airliner – Sandia Laboratories actually carried out a full-scale test to prove this – small drones are nothing to fear. However, drones would probably not go for a brute-force approach, but would use their ability to strike pinpoint targets to hit control systems and failsafes. While this would be unlikely to cause a Chernobyl, it might well shut the plant down, taking out 35% of Arizona’s electricity at a stroke. The successful attack on the Abqaiq facility last year, in which about twenty garage-built drones knocked out a heavily-defended oil facility in Saudi Arabia, should be a wakeup call that such unmanned precision strikes are not just the preserve of state actors any more.
In this case though the drones were clearly not attacking. If it was simply to test the defenses, why send several drones rather than one? Why use big commercial drones rather than disposable consumer models? Why spend so long?
The most obvious answer is that the drones were gathering intelligence, using cameras or other surveying gear too large for a consumer quadcopter. Surveyors use drones fitted with LiDAR, light-based radar, to build accurate three-dimensional pictures of buildings and landscapes with an accuracy of a few centimeters. Others use drone-based photogrammetry, a technique which correlates a large number of two-dimensional images into a full three-dimensional one. Either process requires much longer than a straightforward flyover, which may explain why there were there for so long.
A fleet of several drones could have been sent to survey the entire site in one hit. However, after their success on the first night, the drone operators may have been tempted to go back again to cover any areas they might have missed or get more detail. This may have gathered all they needed, so there was no need for a third mission.
This suggests that the intruders, as well as establishing that Palo Verde lacks effective drone defenses, may now have highly detailed maps of the facility, showing the exact location of every valve, pipe, switch and control. Perhaps they simply aim to sell these on the dark web to anyone who will pay. Or perhaps they have something else in mind. Either way, it is an alarming demonstration of how easily drone intruders can now go anywhere anytime they wish.
<<<
>>> Putin says Russian Navy to get hypersonic nuclear strike weapons
Reuteres
6-26-20
by Andrew Osborn
https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN24R0D3
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday the Russian Navy would be armed with hypersonic nuclear strike weapons and underwater nuclear drones, which the defence ministry said were in their final phase of testing.
Putin, who says he does not want an arms race, has often spoken of a new generation of Russian nuclear weapons that he says are unequalled and can hit almost anywhere in the world. Some Western experts have questioned how advanced they are.
The weapons, some of which have yet to be deployed, include the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, designed to be carried by submarines, and the Tsirkon (Zircon) hypersonic cruise missile, which can be deployed on surface ships.
The combination of speed, manoeuvrability and altitude of hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at more than five times the speed of sound, makes them difficult to track and intercept.
Speaking in St Petersburg at an annual naval parade that showcases Russia’s best ships, nuclear submarines and naval aviation, Putin said the navy’s capabilities were growing and it would get 40 new vessels this year.
He did not specify when it would receive new hypersonic weapons, but suggested that day was drawing closer.
“The widespread deployment of advanced digital technologies that have no equals in the world, including hypersonic strike systems and underwater drones, will give the fleet unique advantages and increased combat capabilities,” Putin said.
In a separate statement released via Russian news agencies, the defence ministry said testing of the Belgorod, the first submarine capable of carrying the Poseidon drones, was underway and testing of the weapons systems was nearing completion.
“Work is being successfully completed to create modern weapons systems for the Navy,” it was cited as saying.
Putin last year threatened to deploy hypersonic missiles on ships and submarines that could lurk outside U.S. territorial waters if the United States moved to deploy intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.
Washington has not deployed such missiles in Europe, but Moscow is worried it might.
<<<
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>>> China, Iran Are on the March
BY JAMES RICKARDS
MAY 6, 2020
https://dailyreckoning.com/china-iran-are-on-the-march/
China, Iran Are on the March
There is so much focus on the COVID-19 pandemic right now that Americans can’t be blamed if they’re not spending much time studying other developments.
That’s understandable, but inattention may be as dangerous as the virus itself. That’s because America’s adversaries are taking advantage of the situation by challenging U.S. interests in a set of geopolitical hot spots.
They believe we’re too distracted by the virus containment effort to mount a firm response.
At the same time, geopolitical confrontation is a classic way to rally a population against an outside threat, especially when they’re still hurting from the pandemic and the economic consequences. It’s one of the oldest tricks in the books to get the people behind the government.
This appears to be the case with China and Iran right now.
China in particular is trying to divert attention away from its own cover-up of the pandemic, which allowed it to spin out of control. So it’s engaging in a global propaganda campaign to try to blame the U.S. for the spread of the virus.
Both China and Iran have lied about the damage caused by the virus in their own countries. China officially reported about 4,600 fatalities and Iran officially reported about 6,200. But reliable sources suggest that the actual count of fatalities may be at least 10 times greater in both countries.
This could put actual fatalities in China and Iran about equal to the U.S. (over 70,000 dead).
Meanwhile, the U.S. has been reeling economically, and there’s no reason to believe that China and Iran are feeling any less pain. Let’s first consider China…
Not surprisingly, China has tried to take advantage of the situation by acting aggressively in the South China Sea and threatening Taiwan.
The South China Sea is a large arm of the Pacific Ocean surrounded by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia.
All six countries have claims to exclusive economic zones that extend several hundred miles from their coastlines.
Parts of the sea are international waters governed by the Law of the Sea Convention and other treaties. All of the other nations around the South China Sea have rejected China’s claims. But they’ve been pushed back to fairly narrow boundaries close to their coastlines.
China has ignored all of those claims and treaties and insists that it is in control of the entire body of water including islands, reefs and underwater natural resources such as oil, natural gas, undersea minerals and fisheries.
China has also become even more aggressive by designating the South China Sea reefs as city-level administrative units to be administered by mainland China.
And China has pumped sand onto reefs to build artificial islands that have then been fortified with airstrips, harbors, troops and missiles.
China has said it will never seek hegemony, but that’s clearly not true. It most certainly seeks hegemony in the region.
And it’s willing to enforce it. Several encounters have happened lately where Chinese coast guard vessels have rammed and sunk fishing boats from Vietnam and the Philippines.
But China’s aggression in the South China Sea can also jeopardize U.S. naval vessels.
The U.S. operates “freedom of navigation” cruises with U.S. Navy ships to demonstrate that the U.S. also rejects China’s claims. It’s not difficult to envision an incident that could rapidly escalate into something serious.
It’s also fair to assume that a weakened U.S. Navy has emboldened Chinese actions recently.
The two aircraft carriers the Navy has in the western Pacific, the Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, were both taken out of action due to outbreaks of the coronavirus among their crews. That’s been a dramatic reduction in power projection in the region.
But neither side will back down, as neither wants to appear weak. This makes warfare a highly realistic scenario. It’s probably just a matter of time.
Meanwhile, Iran has harassed U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf, launched new missiles and continued its support of terrorism in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.
These actions are more signs of weakness than strength, but they are dangerous nonetheless.
In the past 10 years, we’ve been through currency wars, trade wars and now pandemic.
Are shooting wars next? Pay attention to China, Iran and, yes, North Korea. They haven’t gone away either.
The world is a dangerous place — and the virus has only made it more dangerous.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
<<<
>>> Attack of the drones: Boeing rolls out first ‘Loyal Wingman’ AI aircraft in Australia
GeekWire
BY ALAN BOYLE
May 4, 2020
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/attack-drones-boeing-rolls-first-loyal-wingman-ai-aircraft-australia/
Loyal Wingman
Boeing Australia has built the first of three Loyal Wingman aircraft, which will serve as the foundation for the Boeing Airpower Teaming System. The aircraft are designed to fly alongside existing platforms and use artificial intelligence to conduct teaming missions. (Boeing Photo)
A Boeing-led team has presented the Royal Australian Air Force with its first “Loyal Wingman” aircraft, an AI-equipped drone that’s designed to fly in coordination with crewed military airplanes.
It’s the first of three prototypes for Australia’s Loyal Wingman Advanced Development Program, and the first aircraft to be designed, engineered and manufactured in Australia in more than 50 years. In a news release, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said “Loyal Wingman will be pivotal to exploring the critical capabilities our Air Force needs to protect our nation and its allies into the future.”
The aircraft serves as the foundation for the Boeing Airpower Teaming System, or ATS, which is being developed for the global defense market. ATS uses artificial intelligence as a force multiplier, to complement and extend airborne missions flown by traditional combat aircraft.
Loyal Wingman drones are meant to provide fighter-like performance with the capacity to fly more than 2,000 nautical miles (2,300 statute miles). The prototype unveiled today will now begin ground testing, with taxi tests and flight tests due later this year.
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>>> 30,000 US Soldiers Arrive In Europe Without Masks
ZeroHedge
by Tyler Durden
03/12/2020
Authored by Manlio Dinucci via VoltaireNet.org
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/30000-us-soldiers-arrive-europe-without-masks
The United States are demonstrating their power by organising the largest transfer of their troops in Europe on the occasion of the Defender Europe 20 exercises. This country, which only a few years ago sacrificed its soldiers without warning in its nuclear tests, is taking no precautions for its soldiers faced with the coronavirus epidemic.
The United States have raised the alert for the corona virus in Italy to level 3 - (« avoid non-essential travel »), and taken it to level 4 for Lombardy and Veneto (« do not travel »), the same level as for China. The airline companies American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have cancelled all their flights between New York and Milan. US citizens who are travelling to Germany, Poland and other European countries are at alert level 2, and must take « increased precautions ».
But there is a category of US citizens which is exempt from these standards : the 20,000 soldiers who have begun to arrive from the United States to the ports and airports of Europe for the Defender Europe 20 exercises, the greatest deployment of US troops in Europe in the last 25 years. With those who are already present, approximately 30,000 US soldiers will be participating in the exercises in April and May, alongside 7,000 others from the 17 member countries and partners of NATO, including Italy.
The first armoured unit arrived from the port of Savannah, USA at Bremerhaven in Germany. A total of 20,000 pieces of military equipment are arriving from the USA at six European ports (in Belgium, Holland, Germany, Latvia and Estonia). 13,000 others are provided by the stocks that were pre-positioned by the US Army Europe, mainly in Germany, Holland and Belgium.
These operations, explains the US Army Europe, « require the participation of tens of thousands of soldiers, military personnel and civilians from numerous nations ». At the same time, the majority of the contingent of 20,000 soldiers arrive from the USA, landing at seven European airports. Among this number are 6,000 from the National Guard of 15 States : including Arizona, Florida, Montana, New York and Virginia. At the start of the exercise in April – explains the US Army Europe – the 30,000 US soldiers « will deploy throughout the European region » in order to « protect Europe from any potential threat », with a clear reference to the « Russian menace ». General Tod Wolters – who commands US forces as well as the NATO forces in Europe, as Supreme Allied Commander - assures that the European Union, NATO and the United States European Command, have worked together to improve the infrastructures ». This will allow military convoys to move quickly along the 4,000 kilometres of transit routes.
Tens of thousands of soldiers will cross the frontiers to perform exercises in ten countries. In Poland, US soldiers will arrive in twelve training areas, equipped with approximately 2,500 vehicles. US paratroopers from the 173rd Brigade based in Venetia, and Italians from the Brigade Folgore based in Tuscany, will go to Latvia for a joint launching exercise.
Defender Europe 20 is being carried out in order to « increase the capacity of deploying a major combat force in Europe from the United States ». It is taking place according to times and procedures which make it practically impossible to submit tens of thousands of soldiers to the sanitary standards set up to deal with the coronavirus, and prevent their contact with local inhabitants during their rest periods. Furthermore, the US Army Europe Rock Band will be giving a series of free concerts in Germany, Poland and Latvia, which are sure to attract a large public.
The 30,000 US soldiers, who will « deploy throughout the European region », are thus exempt from the preventative standards set up to deal with the coronavirus crisis which, on the other hand, do apply to civilians. The assurance given by the US Army Europe suffices : « we have the coronavirus under surveillance » and « our forces are in good health ».
At the same time, no-one is considering the environmental impact of a military exercise of this scale. US Abrams tanks will be taking part – each of them weighs 70 tonnes, with armour-plating made of depleted uranium, and consumes 400 litres of fuel for 100 kilometres, producing heavy pollution in order to achieve maximum power.
In this situation, what is the reaction of the European Union and national authorities, and what is the WHO doing about it? They are covering their faces with masks, not only to cover their mouths and noses, but also their eyes.
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>>> Some in Russia Think the Coronavirus Is a U.S. Biological Weapon
What is such a charge based on?
The National Interest
by Mark Episkopos
2-7-20
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/some-russia-think-coronavirus-us-biological-weapon-121731
As the Coronavirus outbreak continues to roil China with no end in sight, media outlets around the world have indulged in varying degrees of speculation concerning its origins. That speculation has taken a geopolitical turn in Russia, where an increasing number of political commentators have to come to believe that the virus is a U.S. bioweapon ultimately directed at Russia.
First, a disclaimer. The Kremlin—up to and including Russian president Vladimir Putin—itself has shown a remarkable degree of judiciousness since the Coronavirus outbreak, limiting its official statements to expressions of sympathy and offers of aid to the Chinese government.
Nevertheless, certain Russian media commentators don’t share the Kremlin’s sense of restraint. Zvezda, a news outlet funded by the Russian Defense Ministry, published an article late last month titled “Coronavirus: American biological warfare against Russia and China.” The author begins by establishing alleged intent: the virus dealt a blow to the Chinese economy, which weakens Beijing’s negotiating hand in the next round of trade talks to follow the recent signing of the phase one deal between Washington and Beijing.
Zvezda proceeds to the core argument, which centers around long-standing Russian suspicions over the presence of U.S. biological research laboratories across Eurasia: “As is well-known, the USA ratified the Geneva convention on Biological Weapons back in 1975. But the biological games across the ocean have never stopped, and not only in local territory. Right after the Soviet collapse, the presence of American bio-laboratories has so far been confirmed in Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. Where else—only the State Department knows, though it insists that these are harmless groups tasked with developing medical devices. But if they are so harmless, then why did the Americans build them, not at home, but across the world?” The author further infers the supposedly malign intent of these laboratories by pointing out their ties to military-aligned agencies like the Military Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), and by citing older accusations made by Georgian politician Igor Giorgadze that the U.S. bio-laboratory in Georgia has allegedly tested deadly bioweapons on Georgian citizens.
The popular, if not frequently eccentric, Russian politician and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) Vladimir Zhirinvoky told a Moscow radio station that the coronavirus is an experiment by the Pentagon and pharmaceutical companies to create localized pandemics that can devastate a select population without spilling over into other countries.
Perhaps the leading proponent of the U.S. laboratory theory is politician Igor Nekulin, who has been making the rounds on Russian television and news media to pose arguments similar to those raised in the aforementioned Zvezda article. Nikulin believes that Wuhan was chosen for the attack because the local presence of the Wuhan Institute of Virology offers the Pentagon and CIA a convenient cover story about bio-experiments gone awry. Also according to Nikulin, the supposedly Pentagon-funded U.S. laboratories in Eurasia have been collecting and treating genetic material from Russian and Chinese populations to allegedly create an “ethnically specific” virus that only targets certain peoples. Russian military expert Viktor Baranets agrees, adding that biological warfare has become a new weapon “in the American fight for global supremacy against its main adversaries.”
Speculation of this type has found a willing ear among some, though certainly not all, segments of the Russian media partly because the theme of western encirclement has been so central to Russian security concerns over the past several decades. Just as eastward NATO expansion has surrounded Russia with hostile military bases, the narrative goes, so too has Russia been surrounded with bio-warfare centers strewn across the former USSR.
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>>> Russia: The Lost Opportunity
BY JAMES RICKARDS
JANUARY 28, 2020
https://dailyreckoning.com/russia-the-lost-opportunity/
Russia: The Lost Opportunity
The biggest story out of China right now is the coronavirus that I addressed in yesterday’s reckoning.
But while it’s important, the bigger story is the geopolitical dynamic between the U.S., China and Russia.
Today I’m going to address that dynamic and show you how Washington has squandered a major opportunity to turn it in America’s favor.
When future historians look back on the 2010s, they will be baffled by the lost opportunity for the U.S. to mend fences with Russia, develop economic relations and create a win-win relationship between the world’s greatest technology innovator and the world’s greatest natural resources provider.
It will seem a great loss for the world. Here’s the reality:
Russia, China and the U.S. are the only true superpowers and the only three countries that ultimately matter in geopolitics. That’s not a slight against any other power.
But all others are secondary powers (the U.K., France, Germany, Japan, Israel, etc.) or tertiary powers (Iran, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, etc.).
This means that the ideal posture for the U.S. is to ally with Russia (to marginalize China) or ally with China (to marginalize Russia), depending on overall geopolitical conditions.
The U.S. conducted this kind of triangulation successfully from the 1970s until the early 2000s.
One of the keys to U.S. foreign policy in the last 50 or 60 years has been to make sure that Russia and China never form an alliance. Keeping them separated was key.
In 1972, Nixon pivoted to China to put pressure on Russia. In 1991, the U.S. pivoted to Russia to put pressure on China after the Tiananmen Square massacre.
Unfortunately, the U.S. has lost sight of this basic rule of international relations. It is now Russia and China that have formed a strong alliance, to the disadvantage of the United States.
China and Russia have forged stronger ties through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, for example — a military and economic treaty — and the BRICS institutions. Part of it is an anti-dollar campaign.
One leg of the China-Russia relationship is their joint desire to see the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s dominant reserve currency. They chafe against the ways in which the U.S. uses the dollar as a financial weapon.
But ultimately, this two-against-one strategic alignment of China and Russia against the U.S. is a strategic blunder by the U.S.
Russia is the nation that the U.S. should have tried to court and should still be courting. That’s because China is the greatest geopolitical threat to the U.S. because of its economic and technological advances and its ambition to push the U.S. out of the Western Pacific sphere of influence.
Russia may be a threat to some of its neighbors, but it is far less of a threat to U.S. strategic interests.
Therefore, a logical balance of power in the world would be for the U.S. and Russia to find common ground in the containment of China and to jointly pursue the reduction of Chinese power.
Of course, that hasn’t happened. And we could be paying the price for years to come.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
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Name | Symbol | % Assets |
---|---|---|
Raytheon Technologies Corp | RTX | 7.13% |
Lockheed Martin Corp | LMT | 6.91% |
Boeing Co | BA | 6.62% |
Honeywell International Inc | HON | 5.32% |
General Dynamics Corp | GD | 5.29% |
Northrop Grumman Corp | NOC | 4.92% |
L3Harris Technologies Inc | LHX | 4.86% |
Textron Inc | TXT | 4.55% |
TransDigm Group Inc | TDG | 4.14% |
Axon Enterprise Inc | AXON | 3.97% |
Name | Symbol | % Assets |
---|---|---|
Raytheon Technologies Corp | RTX | 19.71% |
Boeing Co | BA | 18.63% |
Lockheed Martin Corp | LMT | 5.55% |
Teledyne Technologies Inc | TDY | 5.01% |
L3Harris Technologies Inc | LHX | 4.83% |
General Dynamics Corp | GD | 4.73% |
Northrop Grumman Corp | NOC | 4.51% |
TransDigm Group Inc | TDG | 4.47% |
Textron Inc | TXT | 4.26% |
Howmet Aerospace Inc | HWM | 3.51% |
Name | Symbol | % Assets |
---|---|---|
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc Shs A | SPCE | 4.94% |
Axon Enterprise Inc | AXON | 4.23% |
Maxar Technologies Inc | MAXR | 4.17% |
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc | KTOS | 4.10% |
Hexcel Corp | HXL | 3.80% |
Textron Inc | TXT | 3.79% |
Mercury Systems Inc | MRCY | 3.73% |
Teledyne Technologies Inc | TDY | 3.72% |
General Dynamics Corp | GD | 3.71% |
TransDigm Group Inc | TDG | 3.69% |
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