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>>> Putin Draws Line on U.S. Arms for Ukraine

U.S. officials say that Ukrainian missiles sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, and they fear that a brewing Russian offensive in the East could signal a more bloody phase of the war.

The New York Times

by David E. Sanger, Michael Schwirtz and Helene Cooper

4-15-22

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/15/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#putin-russia-us-weapons


Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.
Stung by war losses including a Black Sea naval flagship bristling with missiles, Russia has warned the Biden administration to stop supplying advanced weapons to Ukrainian forces or face “unpredictable consequences,” American military officials said Friday.

The Russian warnings, punctuated by a formal protest note delivered this week, were disclosed as the Kremlin’s military was massing troops and pouring armaments, including attack helicopters, into eastern Ukraine for what is expected to be the next big offensive in its two-month-old invasion of the country.

The warnings also were regarded as a sign that American military assistance to Ukraine, including a planned $800 million boost announced this week, was compounding problems for Moscow. The invasion has met unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian resistance, exposing weaknesses in Russia’s conventional armed forces.

President Vladimir V. Putin has installed a new commander to oversee the Ukraine war and has publicly suggested in the last week for the first time that Russia’s goals were limited to securing the Donbas, the section of east Ukraine bordering Russia where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting for eight years.

But first, Russian forces will have to finish taking Mariupol, a vital southeastern Ukrainian port city. Ukrainian defenders have hung on there for weeks, despite relentless bombardments that have turned that city into a symbol of the war’s destructive horrors.

In other developments:

Ukrainian officials say that they have recovered the bodies of at least 900 civilians who were killed by Russian forces as they withdrew from the Kyiv region — a toll that was likely to amplify the already mounting accusations of war crimes being committed.

Two Ukrainian Neptune missiles hit Russia’s flagship Moskva in the Black Sea, a senior defense official said on Friday, providing the first American confirmation that the sinking of the Russian cruiser was the result of a Ukrainian strike.

Ukraine’s military said on Friday that Russian forces were using long-range bombers to attack Mariupol, as they intensified their efforts to seize complete control of the southern port city.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had struck a missile factory on the outskirts of Kyiv and threatened to increase the “number and scale of missile strikes against facilities” in Ukraine’s capital in response to any “terrorist attacks and acts of sabotage” on the Russian territory.

The C.I.A.’s director said on Thursday that “potential desperation” to extract the semblance of a victory could tempt President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to order the use of a tactical or low-yield nuclear weapon.


Julian E. Barnes
April 15, 2022

Anticipating the need for coastal defense, Ukraine asked for anti-ship missiles, U.S. officials say.


WASHINGTON — For several weeks, senior Ukrainian officials in Washington and Kyiv have been telling the Pentagon they need anti-ship missiles and other coastal defense weaponry, asking the United States to help them open a new front to turn back the Russian invasion, senior U.S. officials said.

The United States responded, adding coastal defense weapons to a $800 million package announced this week. Senior Pentagon officials also requested in a meeting Wednesday that American military contractors develop proposals for additional anti-ship missiles that the U.S. could provide to the Ukrainians or American allies.

The Ukrainian strike on the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was a stark demonstration of the power of anti-ship missiles launched from the coast, and it showed, a senior Defense Department official said, that Ukraine’s requests for more such weaponry was “very prescient.”

American officials said that the Moskva was not sunk with American-made weapons, but with two Ukrainian Neptune missiles.

Russia has continued to claim that the fire on the Moskva was the result of an accident, not a Ukrainian attack.

Some American officials said that Russia remains anxious to play down Ukrainian prowess with its public. The sinking of the Moskva, officials said, showed both the power of Ukraine’s own weaponry and the strategic importance of expanding the battle from Ukrainian towns to the Black Sea, where Russia’s fleet have long dominated. The sinking of the ship is a blow to Russia’s war plans, sending an arsenal of missiles to the bottom of the Black Sea.

While few American analysts would have predicted that the Ukrainians could have sunk the Moskva, officials said at this point in the war no one should be surprised by Ukrainian capabilities, or their ability to extract high damage on the Russian military.

Before the strike on the Moskva, the senior Defense Department official said, the Russian Black Sea fleet had been able “to operate with relative impunity.”

Now, however, the Russians have already pulled back their other ships farther from the coast, another U.S. official said. That could complicate any Russian amphibious assault on Odesa. Stopping or deterring an amphibious landing remains an important objective for Ukrainian officials, and was behind their specific request for more coastal defense weaponry, American officials said.

The farther Russian ships are from the coast the more limited their support for ground assaults on Ukrainian cities will be. That could make some gun and missile attacks on Ukraine more difficult, but it will not put Russia’s more powerful missiles out of range. Ukraine’s Neptune missiles have a range of about 190 miles, far shorter than Russia’s sea-launched cruise missiles, some of which can reach 1,550 miles.


The New York Times

April 15, 2022

by Helene Cooper

WASHINGTON — Two Ukrainian Neptune missiles hit Russia’s flagship Moskva in the Black Sea, a senior Defense official said on Friday, providing the first American confirmation that the sinking of the Russian cruiser was the result of a Ukrainian strike.

Moscow had said the ship sank in stormy seas after an accidental fire caused an explosion.

The official said that American intelligence assessments say there were a number of casualties as the ship was struck but could not provide a specific number. He said that there were also some Russian sailors who survived and were seen being picked up by lifeboats.

The ship was struck about 65 nautical miles south of Odesa and moved under her own power for some time after the initial strikes, before eventually sinking on Thursday. As the only Russian cruiser of that class in the Black Sea, Moskva’s sinking is a significant blow to Russia’s war plans, the official said.

“She had cruise missiles on that ship that are now at the bottom of the Black Sea,” the official said.


April 15, 2022
David E. Sanger and Anton Troianovski

Russia warns the U.S. to stop arming Ukraine or risk ‘unpredictable consequences.’

WASHINGTON — Russia has sent a series of warnings to the Biden administration, including a formal diplomatic protest this week, demanding that it halt shipment of advanced weapons to Ukraine that could strike into Russian territory, or risk unspecified “unpredictable consequences.”

The diplomatic note, called a démarche, was sent through normal channels, two administration officials said. It was not signed by President Vladimir V. Putin or other senior Russian officials. But it was an indicator, one administration official said, that the weapons sent by the United States so far were having an effect.

It also suggested that the Russians were concerned about the new tranche of more sophisticated offensive weaponry, part of an $800 million package that President Biden announced the day after the Russian Embassy in Washington delivered the démarche.

U.S. officials said the tone of the note was consistent with a series of public Russian threats, including to target deliveries of weapons as they moved across Ukrainian territory.

Officials said the note did not prompt any special concern in the White House. But it has touched off a broader discussion inside the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about whether the “unpredictable consequences” could include trying to target or sabotage some of the weapons shipments while they are still in NATO territory, before they are handed off to the Ukrainians for the final leg of their journey. The delivery of the protest note was reported earlier by The Washington Post.

The weapons that Mr. Biden authorized this week for transfer to the Ukrainians include long-range artillery that is suited for what U.S. officials believe will be a different style of battle in the open areas of the Donbas, where Russian forces appear to be amassing for an attack in the coming days.

While Pentagon officials were insistent in the run-up to the war in February that the United States provide only defensive weaponry that would avoid escalation, the nature of Russia’s attacks — including direct attacks on civilians and nonmilitary targets — appears to have muted that debate.

Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, described in an interview at the Washington Economic Club on Thursday how he and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had reviewed weapons requests. They went over each item with their Ukrainian counterparts, talking about what the United States had in its stocks and what it could deliver quickly.

Reports by pro-Kremlin media have highlighted antitank systems and other Western weapons being used by Ukrainian forces, promoting the idea that Russia is not at war with Ukraine but with an American-led alliance seeking to destroy Russia. Mr. Biden and his aides have denied that, saying that they were trying to stay out of direct conflict with Russia and had no interest in American-engineered regime change.

In Moscow, commentators have been increasingly calling on Russia to strike Ukrainian roads and railroads to inhibit the weapons transfers. While Russia has targeted many of Ukraine’s airports, the country’s ground transportation network remains largely intact.

“The time has come not to speak, but to attack,” Viktor Baranets, a military columnist for Komsomolskaya Pravda, Russia’s biggest tabloid, said on Friday. “Train echelons must be destroyed along with the railways.”

Russia’s concern is that the accuracy Ukraine showed in hitting its most sophisticated warship — whose defenses should have been able to intercept the Neptune anti-ship missile, a derivative of a missile that was originally of Soviet design — will be extended with help from the United States.

The Russian démarche echoed the public rhetoric of officials in Moscow, who have been warning for weeks that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine would prolong the war and be met with a tough response.

It came as the level of concern among Russian officials over the impact of Western arms has been increasing, said Andrei Kortunov, the director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research organization close to the Kremlin.

“It seems the United States and the West in general are right now testing the limits of Russian tolerance when it comes to weapons deliveries,” Mr. Kortunov said. “It’s clear that these volumes are already so significant that they can affect the course of the hostilities, and this is raising concerns.”

A Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei A. Ryabkov, said on Friday that Russia was “making it clear to the Americans and other Westerners” that attempts to slow down the invasion and increase Russian losses would be “curbed in a tough manner.”

He added that NATO vehicles carrying weapons across Ukrainian territory would be “viewed by us as legitimate military targets.” His comments came in an interview with Tass, the state-run news agency.

NATO hands off weapons to the Ukrainians, so its vehicles would be unlikely to cross Ukrainian soil. But Mr. Ryabkov’s comments have heightened concerns about whether Russia would take the risk of striking inside NATO territory.

When Mr. Putin announced his “special military operation” on the morning of Feb. 24, he said that those “who may be tempted to interfere” in Ukraine would face consequences as severe “as you have never seen in your entire history.”

“No matter how the events unfold, we are ready,” Mr. Putin said at the time. “All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken.”

But seven weeks into the war, Russia has so far appeared careful not to escalate the conflict in a way that could draw NATO countries more directly — for instance, not striking weapons convoys crossing into Ukraine from Poland.

“There are still fears regarding strikes that may hit the territory of NATO member countries,” Mr. Kortunov said. “One certainly does not want to create a pretext for some further escalation.”

In a news conference this week, Mr. Putin referred to the weapons deliveries only obliquely, describing the United States as being “ready to fight against Russia to the last Ukrainian.”

“It is the essence of the current events,” he said.


David E. Sanger
April 15, 2022

Russia has sent a series of warnings to the Biden administration, including a formal diplomatic protest this week, demanding that it halt shipment of advanced weaponry to Ukraine that could strike into Russian territory, or risk unspecified “unpredictable consequences.”


Neil Vigdor
April 15, 2022

Ukraine’s defense minister seizes on Russia’s sunken flagship, calling it a ‘worthy diving site.’

Ukraine’s defense minister goaded Russia on Friday over the sinking of its flagship in the Black Sea a day earlier, suggesting that the wreck would become a popular diving attraction.

The minister, Oleksii Reznikov, posted a photo on Twitter of a scuba diver swimming with a sea turtle, seizing on the loss of the Moskva, one of the Russian Navy's largest vessels.

“A ‘flagship’ Russian warship is a worthy diving site,” Mr. Reznikov wrote in English on Twitter. “We have one more diving spot in the Black Sea now. Will definitely visit the wreck after our victory in the war. BTW, I already have 300 scuba dives.”

The cause of the naval catastrophe is disputed, with Ukraine claiming it struck the ship with missiles and Russia attributing it to an accidental fire that spread to ammunition aboard the ship. But the vessel’s loss has emboldened Ukrainians.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry further mocked Russia in another tweet on Friday over the ship’s sinking. The ministry said it wanted to remind the Russian Navy that the straits into the Black Sea were “closed for entry only.” “The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out,” it said.


Marc Santora
April 15, 2022

Russia is using long-range bombers to attack Mariupol, Ukraine’s military says.

Ukraine’s military said on Friday that Russian forces were using long-range bombers to attack Mariupol as they fight to seize complete control of the southern port city.

The remaining Ukrainian forces are holed up in two primary locations in Mariupol: at a sprawling steel plant and at the city’s port.

“The Russian Army is constantly involving additional units to storm the city,” Oleksandr Motuzianyk, the spokesman for Ukraine’s defense ministry, said at a news conference.

He claimed that “the Russians are not able to completely capture this city,” although after nearly two months of bombardment, he acknowledged that the remaining Ukrainian forces in the city face an increasingly difficult situation.

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