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For BOIL it seems to me that that buy signal is coming pretty late. BOIL is already up 16%+. I am still not trading it, but I am watching again. Of course if it runs up another 20%, then no problem.
Good chance that is going to happe today.
I'm guessing one of the first applications for this technology will be bitcoin miners...
Macroeconomic news and events are ancillary to my trading decisions.
I find trading charts to be much more profitable. Much more. GLTY
#natgas is gapping up AHs so you should make some $$$ with $BOIL but what goes up comes down...I am still holding $KOLD after I saw this gap up...only reason NG popped is that Freeport is becoming operational again and NG is being exported again reducing the glutted supply...an example of how macroeconomics moves the price up...I saw how the price dove this morning and went back to sleep...then it popped suddenly...nothing I could do about it now i wait to limit my losses...it puts me back to where i started watching NG weeks ago...waiting for a dip...I'm going to experiment with futures instead of buying $BOIL...
D > are you relying on SC charts only?
$UCO.......Daily......ABV... R1..=BL-3UP...
https://schrts.co/WeYACWBv
$SVXY......10...30....+ ..2xD...TREND HH With TWO ( 2) GAP UP OPINION..BY charts....experience . ....
10.....
https://schrts.co/drzKXWVg
30...With Two GAPs DN.. ..heard before one cancel other...????..
https://schrts.co/ViWiZddS
[1]Dailly.......MET ...RESISTANCE MA50 RED DOTS
https://schrts.co/AQBRRTmR
[2] daily ZIG ....Look to me wave 3up in progress...
https://schrts.co/wmSQzFbN
11:54 > Out SVXY 50 @ 54.13
4/15
18:29 > In SVXY 50 @ 51.14 > small load >
I am less than 1% away on my SPY chart from a long trigger. Have set up buy stops.
QQQ is still about 3% away.
Being more aggressive in my SmAcc with 60m buys.
ARKK .....10...+D...Trend HH now....
https://schrts.co/ezXjZuVm
URTY....10.....+D...trend HH NOW....
https://schrts.co/tpXIHuUE
TNA 10......+ D...TREND HH NOW...
https://schrts.co/tpXIHuUE
WGMI 10.......Daily trend HH.
https://schrts.co/bNAwxvtc
BOIL ....10.......+ Daily tend HH..
https://schrts.co/NuzNcAeG
see what happens this week >
Page 10
Market Punishing Negative EPS Surprises More Than Average
To date, the market is rewarding positive earnings surprises reported by S&P 500 companies less than average and
punishing negative earnings surprises more than average.
Companies that have reported positive earnings surprises for Q1 2024 have seen no change in price (0.0%) on average
two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release. This percentage is smaller than the 5-
year average price increase of +1.0% during this same window for companies reporting positive earnings surprises.
Companies that have reported negative earnings surprises for Q1 2024 have seen an average price decrease of -6.1%
two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings. This percentage decrease is much larger than
the 5-year average price decrease of -2.3% during this same window for companies reporting negative earnings surprises.
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_041924.pdf?hsCtaTracking=31d0f488-5c02-4193-b93b-f1708067f4fa%7Cb994622e-6b82-4c98-ad34-76c848088314
SVIX.... ..Daily......trend HH today above R1...means bears at driver sea today tomorrow ??
means VIX bull at sleep today....OPINION.....
SVIX daily (BR) ABOVE R1. today
https://schrts.co/mIipSxEZ
UVIX Daily (BL) under S1...today.
https://schrts.co/PWcPqbvc
I understand you now thanks ...wish you good luck
I do the majority of my buying EOD (end of day), the close.
RIOT is the leading candidate. Looking at my Bitcoin miner matrix, it has the strongest momentum today.
WGMI is a rather new Bitcoin miners 1x ETF if you want to play them all together. GLTY
I was not expecting the bitcoin miners to turn positive so soon after the halving, but they are today.
I will look them all over near EOD and likely pick one. GLTY
SQQQ....Daily.......looking for market under Support (1) print..#..
daily O/B..look like
https://schrts.co/mgieAJnN
TSLL TSLS....Daily......
TSLS 1X BEAR..O/B
https://schrts.co/BMikVBMr
TSLL 1.5 BULL O/S
https://schrts.co/cPnMgxnY
WGMI It is ETF.....NASDAQ not EOD
TSLA is now down 46% from the recent high. I would say that is not good at all for MUSK. EV market is fading fast. Seems everyone is shifting to driverless EV market, which I have my doubts about also. I am not about to get into one.
Was not aware of WGMI. By my charts it is a daily buy EOD.
RE-WGMI 30.....+ Daily....trend HH....not find daily... R1..yet...
30.
https://schrts.co/PYijbrAC
Daily...
https://schrts.co/qAQnpbbQ
N > Thanks I read that a while ago >
This also comes / came into play > a lot of those levels hit >
posted this a few hours before 2.5 started >
=======================================
Low was 4963.25
Thursday, April 18, 2024 7:11:51 PM
NQ > looking for some possible clarity after this OpEx >
I have these CTA numbers marked >
And it's not just the Nasdaq: for the S&P emini, the next 5 sell triggers are as follows
5031.07 (MT -0.5%), 4980.29 (ST -1.5%), 4962.0- (ST -1.9%), 4950.21 (LT -2.1%) and 4937.63 (MT -2.3%)
Remember this from March?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174051931
Well, the consequence of that expiration is beginning to show itself here in the chart below. This will get much attention in the coming weeks as small banks start to have visible difficulties similar to SVB a year ago. GLTY
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLPCL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1eFCh
This coming week is full of Big Cap earnings reports.
Could be a few surprises... GLTY
"Jenga week" >
fully expect this session Futs gap to be closed
Thx for sharing your analysis. Well done.
My crystal ball this morning looks like this;
Following swing trading rules, the current market move down stalls around 475, then turns up again. However, if a black swan appears (WW2.5 escalates further?), and the anticipated recession begins, this move down continues much lower, below last Oct/Nov levels I fear, and taking gold and bitcoin down with it as people go to cash to pay bills.
I choose not to ride SQQQ this market move down, but rather several of the Mag7 individual components.
LABD, SOXS, NVDQ, TSLZ, also FAZ, and DRV.
Both FAZ and DRV are stalling/rolling over BTW. We shall see what Monday brings. GLTY
I have been doing a lot of work of late with my exits from swing trading SPY and QQQ. Exit too early and get whipped as the market continues to soar. Exit too late and lose a lot of unbooked gain. My exits used to be in the 2% range. They caused some whips, but more important it caused a lot of trading. I want to slow my trading down, but protect myself from major pull backs.
In general I see pullbacks in the 1.5-2% range normally correct pretty quick, buy once a pull back hits about 4%, it is usually serious and most of the time keeps going. At least that is my take and how I am proceeding with my trading plans.
The numbers below are the major pullbacks by year. The pullback is calculated from the highest high close to the lowest low close of the cycle.
SPY has now hit a -5.4% pb and QQQ -7.1%. 2022 was a big down year, so I would expect the pullbacks to be big and they were. 2023 was actually a very good year, so as one might expect, the pullbacks were muted in the 5%-10% area.
So what will 2024 be, a good year or a bad year? If it is going to be a good year, I would not be surprised if this pullback was about over. However, if it is going to be another bad year, but maybe not as bad as 2022, I would think we could see another 5% or more added on to the pullback.
At this point, the market is well below where I exited, so I am protected from any whip and expect my buy points coming up to be less that my exits, giving me the edge on the market that comes from swing trading.
SPY QQQ
2022 5 -12.9% -15.6% -12.2% -16.7% -7.2% 5 -21.1% -22.6% -13.7% -21.6% -8.3% -11.2%
2023 3 -7.5% -4.7% -9.0% 4 -7.4% -7.2% -6.2% -7.4%
2024 1 -5.4% 1 -7.1%
D > thanks > gets a bit confusing
I plan to update my bitcoin files this weekend and I will try to answer your question at least for me in more detail.
Don't know how accurate this calculation but its a rough start. I am mining about .001 bitcoin a week. .004 x 65,000 = $260. I pay $149 a mo for electricity.
So with the halving I will be about BE. So the halving is really not a killer at all. I have no clue how much of the bitcoin that I am paid comes from transaction fees.
this is where my questions are >
how many miners will survive the halving in the periods to come >
How much does it cost to mine 1 bitcoin after halving?
It currently costs roughly $10,000 to $15,000 to mine a bitcoin, and "some" (don't know who)
estimate that these costs "will double" and may reach as high as $40,000 after the 2024 halving.
Same working Costs of (everything ) Now Earning 50% less is not a good business plan
Facility costs / Equipment costs / Energy consumption cost / Labor costs / State and Federal cost etc. etc. <<< Where does it end
Miners require substantial capital investment ( No cheap $ now) to purchase and maintain and Update mining equipment and the facilities
NQ >. tonight > Bitcoin block decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 coins
approximately of reward drop: 20 April 2024 00:11
I was hoping to get out of $KOLD by now to get me some $SBIT ... gotta wait for next week...https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-stuck-inside-consolidation-range-1425012 won't be long until #natgas bottoms...prolly in may b4 Freeport is fully operational...another economic behavior that affects NG...I find this interesting looking at the co-relationship of charts and economic forces affecting prices...it was the Covid crisis in China that sent the markets spiraling...not the charts...
Bitcoin's 4th halving predicted to occur in hours. Tomorrow (or tonight).
If this halving follows patterns from previous halving's, look for a drop in bitcoin price, and bitcoin miners stocks (bottoming shortly after halving occurs), followed by a upward trend that will take both to new all time highs (topping a year or so post halving).
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/watch-live-countdown-most-important-halving-bitcoin-history
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/5-things-you-didnt-know-about-bitcoin-halvings-btc-price
I plan to swing trade all this using the BITU/SBIT 2x ETF pair. GLTY
SPX.....W......BEARs...three weeks...wave3dn...from APR.1/2024
https://schrts.co/XGDqKbAt
Block pop-up ads http://www.adfender.com/
Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history
Three X ETF's http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List
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