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Im still holding on to my w3 idea on 60min BOIL, I did have a daily signal on BOIL that crashed and burned earlier this week.
Daily In 14.71 10Apr out 14.11 11Apr
60min In 13.85 5Apr
BOIL
same here > not at screens today >
will do some setup work over weekend >
You might want to add SVXY to your lists
This is a long read, but only slightly off topic from your earlier post. I found it very engaging, and described many logical connections and explanations to current events. Well researched by the author.
As I sit at my desk on a sunny spring Friday afternoon reading this rather than addressing work related activities, this section of the article I found particular relevant to my own situation. GLTY
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis/
BOIL....KOLD 10....+...VIX........
.Q...can you see wheN is the time the market flip from KOLD TO BOIL.?.
.A. About 11.00am
https://schrts.co/QKbfnHSu
$UVXY.....60..+...Daily. ZIG........is a W5 or 7 up...With GAP UP...today...?....Will see later..
under support 33.29...? may Flip from BULL to BEAR...?
60.
https://schrts.co/SGdQqJjf
Daily.ZIG
https://schrts.co/qjpMsXCW
RE-NUGT....60.....+...Daily....
60...
https://schrts.co/ncCYVEQK
Daily..zig....
https://schrts.co/AIZbncFC
right now, May is 1.765 and July is 2.328 so for some reason that negative price in TX isn't affecting #natgas futures...maybe when the market opens though...tanx for the info...
CTA's using CTA's. I like it!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cta.asp
I'm expecting a couple more down days for #natgas...
$BOIL is following: 166.83% NATURAL GAS FUTR JUL24 33.14% NATURAL GAS FUTR MAY24
$KOLD is following: -166.74% NATURAL GAS FUTR JUL24 -33.23% NATURAL GAS FUTR MAY24
two completely different charts...looks like July has a gap to fill whether it does or not we will see...that will be great for $KOLD...
I had a different definition for CTA, but when I googled CTA your definition is all I could find.
Since I am using Stock Charts, events like splits and dividends are non-events for me. All history gets corrected very quickly.
Oooo, ouch!
High stakes poker playing.
Heads UP guys > a bunch of ETF splits happening >
just caught me out and wrecked my charts > Better LOOK at the list
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240320874672/en/ProShares-Announces-ETF-Share-Splits
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One ETF will reverse split shares at the following split ratio:
UVXY ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures
split ratio
>>>>> 1:5 <<<<<<<<
The reverse split for phase two will be effective prior to market open on April 11, 2024, when the fund will begin trading at its post-split price. The ticker symbol for the fund will not change. The fund undergoing a reverse split will be issued a new CUSIP number, listed above.
The reverse splits will increase the price per share of each fund, with a proportionate decrease in the number of shares outstanding. For example, for a one-for-five reverse split, every five pre-split shares will result in the receipt of one post-split share, which will be priced five times higher than the NAV of a pre-split share.
Illustration of a Reverse Split
The following table shows the effect of a hypothetical ONE-for-FIVE reverse split.
Pre-Split 1,000 $10.00 $10,000.00
Post-Split 200 $50.00 $10,000.00
NQ > guess they didn't get the email >
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huge-dovish-bet-loses-50-million-one-day
Yup, NatGas producers are shutting down some nonprofitable wells, reducing production. Reduced production will move prices up.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-drillers-cut-spending-reduce-activity-amid-price-crash-2024-02-15/
what burns me up about this is that when there were such things going on on the other side...it was ok...each side has their own infidelity, dishonesty, and quirks...no one side is above the other...
thanks but I'm getting free info from multiple sources...last week I bot $BOIL a little too high anticipating higher support...now i know i have to sell when i see the spikes in #natgas like yesterday...so now I wait for prices to come back down and hopefully make a little money on $KOLD...again I'm being a cosin on a sin wave...one thing for sure...NG producers are cutting back so price will eventually bottom out if it already hasn't done so around 1.75...then i get to sell my $KOLD and buy some futures...
Ha ha, the CPLiars got caught...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/scandal-rocks-bidens-labor-dept-lying-about-sharing-non-public-inflation-data-secret-group
In finance, CTA is an abbreviation for Commodity Trading Advisor.
A CTA is a professional money manager or a hedge fund who trade futures contracts, commodities, options and certain foreign exchange instruments using OPM (other peoples money).
https://archive.is/www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-are-getting-closer-cta-selling-tsunami
https://archive.is/
Been a long time. Thanks for checking in on us.
DUMA
Thanks for writing this post. I appreciate your views and it's good knowing that I'm not alone at this time.
Once again - I appreciate you and the members of your board.
Thanks
Michael
I found this article very interesting. First the government is proposing to eliminate treasury holdings from the SLR (Supplemental Liquidity Ratio) calculation. The new SLR rule change could allow banks to be an endless buyer of treasury debt since they don't need to set aside cash in reserve. This is going to be very critical for point #2 coming up. Somebody has to buy all the debt that the government needs.
Point two, I had no idea that the vast majority of treasuries issued is bills, that is one year or less. T-notes are about 10-11%, and bonds look to be less than 2%. This is simply amazing and shocking. That means that roughly 87-88% of Treasury sells are T-bills. 1 year bills are currently selling for 5.03% and 6month 5.34%. By my calculation our interest rate on current holdings is running between 3.0% and 3.4%. At the rate of issuing $7T in new debt a quarter, that means that for the next two quarters we will replace 41% of our debt with something in the range of 5% vs 3%. By Year End (Sept) our interest payment will hit $1.4T annualized which will be 31% of our revenue, up from the current 23%. If we go into a recession, revenue will go down for next year, but interest cost will continue to climb, ugly for sure for whoever is the next president.
So if by 2026 our interest hits 50% of revenue, will that be enough for congress to do something to rein in spending? I would say it is now too late for simple action, what's coming is going to amaze everyone. Huge spending cuts, big new taxes and special assessments will have to get really ugly. Let's go back to a 90% top income tax bracket, Bernie and Warren will love it.
This is going to be fun to watch. I am glad for the rule change for the banks because there are going to be plenty of people bailing on the market and wanting to put their money in MMF's. Banks can now really get in on the action.
I can't wait to see the March numbers in about a week.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-debt-pristine-collateral-or-red-flag
$VIX........Daily......
https://schrts.co/kinGErtF
SQQQ ..... Daily.....
https://schrts.co/bINAGnUF
TQQQ.......Daily..........
https://schrts.co/gZsPkYgP
You might find a subscription to this news letter worthwhile. I terminated my subscription a while back to declutter my approach. Now I simply watch/trade the 1hr BOIL/KOLD charts as I have illustrated to you this past week or so. GLTY
https://www.celsiusenergy.net/
#natgas right now is 1.895 for May...that's mostly what BOIL and KOLD follow...and what peeps on X are following...KOLD will be going through 2-1 forward split the next couple days...
BOIL did not print a full bar above the 200MA today, so I remain on the sidelines.
$NatGas spot price at $2.01 after hours tonight. We will see what tomorrow brings. GLTY
https://capital.com/us-natural-gas-price
I think #natgas is going to go back down for the next few days...it's been trading sideways...my 50-50 shot is 95% wrong...if I do buy $KOLD again it will be like on today's bump...otherwise I might just keep $BOIL when NG 1.75 or lower...that seems to be near time support...report comes out in 2 days...
CPI data comes out tomorrow. I would think that the consensus by now is that inflation numbers will be up. So the question does the market already have this priced in or will it be a big surprise. I have no clue, logic doesn't work anymore.
Interest rates have been going up all week, with little effect on the market. Good for the banks with a lot of credit card accounts, but bad for all the bonds they are holding. Have you bought any gasoline this week, wow!
I am going to guess the market will start off in shock as it did today and recover much by day's end.
SLVP.....Daily.......stars MAR 1/2024 look like....?
https://schrts.co/mPUgAGUU
NUGT 60.........about 9 days .Above bb20 center line...now
https://schrts.co/ncCYVEQK
I agree.
Adding a trillion in new debt each 100 days now. The numbers of days for each additional trillion will get less and less. Govt spending is like a runaway train.
https://archive.is/PjtaK
https://archive.is/www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/mar/4/us-national-debt-spiraling-out-of-control-rising-1/
The "great reset" is upon us or at least is being attempted by the true powers. Keep eye on interest rates and amount of payments that Duma has written about.
We are getting close to point of no return of the interest rate cycle, create more debt just to pay off the debt.
I think we have a good w3 in the making. w1 moved about 3 points so a similar move puts us around 16.00
BOIL
Bitcoin keeps making new highs while the miners are making lows or big PBs. We might be almost there on the decoupling. Still watching.
I was looking at the daily chart and Stoch and Rsi was showing #natgas going down...rsi changed today...but I still think it's going lower...I don't think bottom is in yet...
that makes 3 of us
Yup, I am of the same mind/opinion.
Post WWII, with the industrial giants Japan, Germany, and Russia in shambles, the US enjoyed a long period of growth and prosperity. This advantage appears to me to be coming to a bumpy end.
The current debt based banking system we have, which replaced the gold standard, is racing towards insolvency. The trend towards working from home is negatively impacting the commercial real estate market, is the achilleas heel of the banks. This will end badly.
The increasing percentage of the population that works for the government is a troubling trend. The current spending rate of the US govt for its payroll, and the rate of spending on 'junk' is unstainable, and their is no resolution presenting itself other than a repeat of the 1929 style reset.
The possibility of another civil war of some kind seems more likely to me as the right and left move farther and farther apart. The upcoming election cycle, and the acceptance of the results, will be telling.
I believe Bitcoin was created as an alternate store of wealth if/when banks and governments stumble. I got a Bitcoin wallet and store some 'off-line' along with other hard assets. You don't need to own a full Bitcoin for this asset to have a major impact on personal finances. Holding just 0.1 Bitcoin will be quite valuable once Bitcoin moves north of $100k/coin, and heading up towards $1m/coin. GLTY
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