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I remember a college prof of mine explained capitalism similar to this.
Marx assumed the capitalist class was so powerful, only revolution could bring about change. Here Marx was very wrong. It is in fact possible for democratically elected governments to act against, or co-opt , the capitalist interests and enact pro-labour change. This is something that FDR did very successfully. FDR managed to get corporates to agree to raising prices and wages, in return for government protection from other producers threatening to undercut profits. In effect, FDR offered corporate America protection from competition in return for raising prices and wages. What FDR began was greatly expanded in the Post World War II period.
Marx observation was that capitalism’s constant search to lower costs would destroy wages and hence demand at some point. If I look at modern capitalism (ie 2024), my observation is that corporates go to extraordinary efforts to shield income from tax (another cost). Converting income stream to capital gains is the underlying organizing principal of private equity, and much of large cap share buybacks. Hence, the risk to capitalism is not collapsing wages and a deflationary spiral, but the collapse in government credit worthiness driven by capitalism’s urge to minimize taxes. As Brad Setser recently posted, US corporates have been shifting an ever large amount of profits to tax havens.
Bitcoin bounced off of (well near) the 200ma. It will likely drop to test this area of support again. If it breaks below this area of support, the targets are on the chart below.
If/when targets below the 200ma are hit, time to pick a Bitcoin miner stock to ride the climb back up. I believe this heads to $100k later this year or early next year.
BITF, CIFR, CLSK, CORZ, HIVE, HUT, MARA, RIOT, AND WULF
GLTY
First I heard of the Sham Rule indicator was reading this article;
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-06-25/im-issuing-major-warning-coming-recession-signals
Here is a link. FYI.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
Here is a link to a chart where I added a red line at 0.5.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pwa9
Yep >
long ago tna / tza worked like a champ >
there was not nearly the amount of splatter of the charting
even with the time frames I was running >
can't put a time frame on when things really changed But they did >
I didn't get real active until after 07 /08 >
I do recall tagging spy 666 + / - 1 during the chaos
It's all in our Old Posts here
This is an interesting article from the Dallas Fed about the state (sad) of business. I guess I am surprised to hear this kind of news out of Texas. If it was Calif or NY, I would expect it. From where I set in Phoenix, I don't see that at all. Almost ever time I gas up at QT (one of our major discount gas stations), I see parents coming out with 2 to 3 kids and all of them have big drinks and snacks easily worth $30-$40. And when I drive down the street, I see new cars all over the place.
The comment about car inventories building up caught my eye and I thought really. So I checked the real numbers. Car sales have been up over last year every month but one this year. So that didn't check out to me.
I know a lot of people are struggling, but there are a lot who aren't. I guess we have managed to bring our country down to a 3 world one, where we have two very different classes of people, those who have money and those that don't. There are also two more classes that leads to what I just said, a class of people who see a future and those who don't. If they don't see a future, they give up.
But I also know there has to be a lot of truth to the article, they just didn't talk about the right things. Too many businesses are closing their doors because with prices required to remain profitable, they don't have enough customers to support keeping the doors open.
And then just yday a trucking firm in Texas just shut their door with no warning. Eventually the why will come out.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/texas-logistics-company-500-truck-drivers-abruptly-ceases-operations
“Due to the abrupt decision by our private ownership group to close our doors at the same time business was surging, I am completely devastated and heartbroken for the 2000+professionals I’ve had the pleasure of working with.”
Each day brings more information about where the economy is going.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/dallas-fed-respondents-blast-poor-national-leadership-stagflation-erodes-business
Customers are concerned about the election, so they are holding off on large purchases.
The lack of building activity is shutting down the appliance industry.
Affordability has become an ever-increasing problem for new car dealers. The price increases of new cars combined with higher interest rates have put new cars out of reach for more and more people.
[Car] inventories continue to swell, and interest rates remain high. Our grosses are off, and margins continue to decline. Profits are down 20 percent from the prior year.
The economy is slowing. The consumer is more cautious and more reluctant to purchase at higher prices and payments.
To add to what NQ posted, when I first started trading everybody on the board was trading TNA. After many years of struggling, I switched to TQQQ and the road has been a lot easier. Over time I started to even include SPXL in order to smooth things out a bit. Since the beginning of May, my account is up 14%, which in 3x terms is 41%. So, by throwing in FNGU and some of the other things that I do, I have managed to even out gain TQQQ.
But over the same time period TNA has only gained 1.3% 1x. That is a disaster in my book. I wish you luck, but you are traveling a very hard road in my opinion.
The IWM chart is near perfectly on-the-fence. No visible trend.
The price action is at the 50ma, centered between the upper and lower BB lines. No trend.
The PMO's are on either side of the 0.0 line. No trend. GLTY
Bought SOXS this afternoon too. GLTY
Bought NRGU this afternoon. GLTY
I much appreciate this sort of educational post. TY
I had a buy signal present itself on my chart last Friday too. One full bar printed above the 9ma. I bought near EOD. GLTY
Best explanation of the fall in Bitcoin I have seen so far.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-crashes-below-61000-ahead-imminent-mtgox-repayments
I am thinking it will find support at the 200ma, approx $58k. If it moves below, the next two support levels are at $51k, the $42.5k.
Once this period of trapped bitcoin holders is allowed to sell their returned bitcoins, and the chart turns up, $100k plus is my target. Before end of this year? GLTY
$NVDQ.....30........D...trend HH....third day...
https://schrts.co/eiiruuyf
So far 2 good entry points have passed for a NVDA short. The first one was Thur when an engulfing candle was printed. The second one was Fri when 10ema was crossed for my long exit. Maybe there will be another entry point with a s3 set up. Might take a small state just for fun, nothing really serious. I am happy to ride the pull backs in cash.
However, if we get into a real bear market, then things are different, I would be more aggressive. Don't think we are there yet. w3 setups back in 2022 took 1-2 months to set up.
I was late with my long entry on the last cycle up. I never really like to enter just as a trend line is breaking, but prices really jumped when it did. I should have recognized the w3 setup and been more aggressive. Wave 3's are just so powerful.
But what a great reset of prices is underway, meaning a good long is coming in the future.
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AI
