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01:00 PM US 30-Year Bond Auction actual > 4.671% previous > 4.331%
KOLD continues to present a buy signal, and broke above the downward triangle, so I bought it this morning @ $71.5. GLTY
KOLD; while the trend is lower lows, and lower highs,...the chart today is presenting a buy signal above the 200MA. If this signal holds towards the end of the day, I will buy KOLD. GLTY
In finance, CTA is an abbreviation for Commodity Trading Advisor.
A CTA is a professional money manager or a hedge fund who trade futures contracts, commodities, options and certain foreign exchange instruments using OPM (other peoples money).
https://archive.is/www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-are-getting-closer-cta-selling-tsunami
https://archive.is/
So close
Stocks are trading on the weaker side and we are very close to some very important levels. Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size. Furthermore, we are now not that far off in bonds from the level where bullish macro gurus say that they will turn bearish on stocks. Lastly, to add insult to injury, we look like we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.
I found this article very interesting. First the government is proposing to eliminate treasury holdings from the SLR (Supplemental Liquidity Ratio) calculation. The new SLR rule change could allow banks to be an endless buyer of treasury debt since they don't need to set aside cash in reserve. This is going to be very critical for point #2 coming up. Somebody has to buy all the debt that the government needs.
Point two, I had no idea that the vast majority of treasuries issued is bills, that is one year or less. T-notes are about 10-11%, and bonds look to be less than 2%. This is simply amazing and shocking. That means that roughly 87-88% of Treasury sells are T-bills. 1 year bills are currently selling for 5.03% and 6month 5.34%. By my calculation our interest rate on current holdings is running between 3.0% and 3.4%. At the rate of issuing $7T in new debt a quarter, that means that for the next two quarters we will replace 41% of our debt with something in the range of 5% vs 3%. By Year End (Sept) our interest payment will hit $1.4T annualized which will be 31% of our revenue, up from the current 23%. If we go into a recession, revenue will go down for next year, but interest cost will continue to climb, ugly for sure for whoever is the next president.
So if by 2026 our interest hits 50% of revenue, will that be enough for congress to do something to rein in spending? I would say it is now too late for simple action, what's coming is going to amaze everyone. Huge spending cuts, big new taxes and special assessments will have to get really ugly. Let's go back to a 90% top income tax bracket, Bernie and Warren will love it.
This is going to be fun to watch. I am glad for the rule change for the banks because there are going to be plenty of people bailing on the market and wanting to put their money in MMF's. Banks can now really get in on the action.
I can't wait to see the March numbers in about a week.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-debt-pristine-collateral-or-red-flag
BOIL did not print a full bar above the 200MA today, so I remain on the sidelines.
$NatGas spot price at $2.01 after hours tonight. We will see what tomorrow brings. GLTY
https://capital.com/us-natural-gas-price
BOIL today is making another run at crossing the 200MA on the 1hr chart. Crossing the 200MA signals a trend change for me. Could be close enough today for me to pull the trigger near end of day. GLTY
I will be very surprised if we don't see a price breakdown tomorrow.
This is a very scary article. I hope he is wrong, but it all makes perfect sense to me. Our world leaders are power hungry and will stop at nothing to keep that power and add more. Our borders are gone, our entire education system is a disgrace, and we are now a forever war charging nation always looking for the next war we can start. The deep state is so deep and common sense so lost that I don't see much hope. I would say the Next Great Depression is almost here. By summer 20-year interest rates could again be over 5% and for sure by year end, our debt payments will be running $1.6T at year and that is on a $4.4T revenue base.
I have no debt, I have no major amounts of money in any banks that I think could fail. Chase is probably the saved bank around because there is no way they can fail. I have some cash on hand, but I need to get a lot more. Of course when all this comes about, I will be surely in cash and not etf's, so I have to hope that all those short-term treasury bills get paid. I can't imagine the government defaulting on the 3mo T-bills first. I do expect some kind of one-time tax on our IRA's since confiscating our gold is off the table and there isn't that much they could go after. Retirement funds is a much better way to completely destroy anybody with any money and totally demoralize everyone into submission. Covid was a great training period, they now know we are all just sheep and they are welcome to destroy our fortunes and long-term outlook without any issue.
I heard terrible stories about the 30's depression from my grandparents. Most of them were farmers so they survived the depression pretty well. They could trade their egg and meat ration coupons for flour, sugar, coffee, and other things since they had the farm. My ex-wife's grandfather had a small grocery store/gas station and decided to sell it and buy a farm. He put the money in the bank the night of the sale intending to buy the farm the next day. That night the bank failed. Their survival story is one I sure hope I don't see repeated in my family again. If you think the government cares about, you are sadly mistaken. I am an old white male, I am to be hated.
Ever since reading Webb’s book my mind has been unsettled, trying to grasp how this could possibly happen, while trying to convince myself it won’t. We’ve muddled along for years and all predictions of collapse due to unsustainable debt growth have failed to materialize. My mind tells me Webb is right, while my heart hopes he’s wrong. But I know hope is not an option. No one in my financial position, or likely 99.9% of the population, will be able to avoid this accelerating train coming down the track.
Every non-insider on the planet will be negatively impacted by the Great Taking. The best we can do is prepare and prep based on our resources, location, family situation, abilities, and attitude. Eliminating debt, having cash-on-hand, having precious metals on-hand, being heavily armed, creating a local network of like-minded people, having no cash or investments in Wall Street banks, and even owning bitcoin in your private wallet, could help alleviate some of the pain from the “Great Taking”.
$BITCOIN and the associated miner stocks appear to be decoupling now. This is expected. Once the halving later in April occurs, the energy cost of each coin mined will 2x (reducing the efficiency of miners), and the rate of new coins entering the market will slow down (making the existing coins more valuable).
At some point in the coming weeks/months, the value of Bitcoin will increase enough such that the miners will move up once again. Now is a good time to be out of the miners and hold Bitcoin. I expect the miners to bottom and turn back up once the price of $BITCOIN sufficiently increases. GLTY
For BOIL/KOLD, I am currently using the hourly charts to trade.
The 1hr KOLD chart this morning is displaying a series of lower highs, and lower lows. This chart had me sell KOLD last Friday for a small gain.
The 1hr BOIL chart this morning is displaying higher highs, and higher lows, but the price action is not yet above the 200MA, so I will likely sit out what is shaping up to be a buy signal this morning.
If the price action was above the 200MA, I would currently be watching/waiting for the next hour bars to appear for confirmation. GLTY
BITU and SBIT started trading this past week.
BITU is a 2x BITCOIN ETF, and SBIT is a 2x Inverse BITCOIN ETF.
(3x versions of each are in the works.)
The Casino is now open...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BITU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92336792827
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBIT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92336792827
https://www.proshares.com
Block pop-up ads http://www.adfender.com/
Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history
Three X ETF's http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List
AI
