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Yes, but it is not a direct subtraction.
The close of BIL on 3/28 was 91.80. Then a dividend was paid on 4/1 of .4047, so all the previous data has to be adjusted by a factor.
Here's how the factor is calculated.
C = close day before dividend is paid
D = dividend paid the next day
factor = (C - D) / C
This makes the factor .99559, so the close of 3/28 gets adjusted to 91.80 * .99559 = 91.395. And all other closes get adjusted also.
This matches Stock Charts numbers. If you want to see the unadjusted numbers I sure you know you can put in "_BIL".
I don't got back and adjust all the other prior months because all the numbers would just factored by the same number, so the ratio would not change.
Good luck on the option. I think you did right by not buying the futures, you can get pounded really quick. The option I like since you got your risk defined.
Im watching the July futures NGN24 to see if this bottom of channel holds up $2.25-2.28.
great chart/SSheet, I see you got the 3mo rolling ave. I changed to that as well. it was 4mo.
You're previous close for BIL 91.395 was 28Mar minus the dividend, Yes?
I bought BOIL May 17 '24 $14 Call at $0.52 ... I think this is better spent than futures...I'll almost double my $$$ when BOIL returns to $14 or higher...#natgas trading at bottom floor prices now right before a nice pop up after Freeport fills it's next vessel...underlying price 12.93 or so,,,#natgas was 1.93 ...
This was another good month for FLOT coming in at 6.64% APR and next month should be even better.
SGOV fell off this month compared to SWVXX, but it's easy of trade still makes it my go to etf for short term money parking and it avoids settlement issues.
I am keeping about 40% of my funds in SGOV or in etf's that I am trading. The balance (60%) is in FLOT and never gets traded.
Note that the "pre cls" for a given month is never the "close" for the previous month. Interest dividends are paid on the 1st, so that always adjusts history to account for the dividend.
I'm not awake during option hours so I can't evaluate my risk and price of entry and exit for BOIL...this is really interesting learning about this commodity...back when oil was down below zero I should have just bot GUSH and held on...instead I played options and lost $$$...but with #natgas I'm learning what is making it move now...
Freeport was able to fill a couple tankers...not sure how many and by doing that $natgas prices spiked and kept up momentum until operations stalled again...I see that some ships were at sea last night are inside the port moored and waiting to be filled...$BOIL down again for the taking and I put in a futures buy order @ 1.915 which would put BOIL under 13...
(E). $SVXY.......30.......Daily.....trend today LL....will tomorrow fill the GAP down.38.63 ...??? .will see
30.
https://schrts.co/DgtPYcVG
Daily
https://schrts.co/FJidIrKm
15:32 Out uvxy 200 @ 32.47 >
well that didn't quite go as planned > need to rethink entry and exiting time frames >
got hung on the overnight to open changes (AH to 08:30 moves) > no matter Onward
Also want Nothing to do with the after close earnings coming > the google one caught me out
$UVXY.....30....Daily.......daily maybe end w5down .....and look like stars w6up..in one day...??? OPINION.....
30.....
https://schrts.co/ZkYshFHz
daily.......to Fill upper GAP.....Maybe down cycle 1/3/5 end today ???? OPINION
https://schrts.co/ivVTtdPB
RE--POST--$UVRY......10....+ Daily.....10....FLIP UP NOW MAY BE MARKET COME TO HELP TOMORROW ?
10....
https://schrts.co/cKdsaaKF
daily...
https://schrts.co/ZmjSKZRJ
(E)$SPX....15....60......look like down...now..
15..
https://schrts.co/semTkbiH
60..
https://schrts.co/GcyzwrpH
The options for me have too high a premium and the bid/ask spreads can get ugly as they get farther OOM. I do see maybe putting on a verticle spread might work.
Im referring to BOIL not the futures.
Futures contracts are out of my comfort zone so I will gladly pass on that idea.
Looks like Freeport has one train back online but other 2 down. When all 3 are full capacity they produce 2BCF/d, which is important but total production is 100Bcf/d give or take. right now 800Mcf/d is what they are cranking out for them tankers.
This will take weeks before they can recover their supply chain. I hope they can survive. If they do, I suspect their insurance company will cancel them. My home insurance with very high in OK, mostly due to hail damage and the number of roofs they had to redo every year. And they pay way too much to the roofers.
dang > this one had some power >
A tornado hit Matietta, OK. Destroying the Family Dollar Distribution center. It also hit a Dollar store, hospital and flipped cars and semis on I-35. #Tornado #Damage #OKWX #Oklahoma #WXTwitter pic.twitter.com/7AF7bgBcQ0
— WxChasing- Brandon Clement (@bclemms) April 28, 2024
I see 6 tankers waiting to get into #freeportlng ...that should be really bullish for #natgas and $BOIL if they make it inside the port no???
Glad you got outa $KOLD because it dropped like rock today...
This is really unusual...the swings for $BOIL and $KOLD should be wider than the NG swings and they are smaller...I didn't do this analysis...thanks...and I was looking at options for the ETFs...but I need to see some T/A for those compared to underlying price and how much decay there is...
lots of moving pieces this week >
soon we get all this big crap out of the way earnings wise
For the swing trading time frames I like, the market continues to be all over the place. The charts I use are very choppy.
So, mostly on the sidelines I remain. I still hold a position in SBIT (2x inverse Bitcoin). Letting Mario run! See chart below.
I am thinking once month end passes, the market will decide if it wants to go up or down. GLTY
$UVRY......10....+ Daily.....10....FLIP UP NOW MAY BE MARKET COME TO HELP TOMORROW ?
10....
https://schrts.co/cKdsaaKF
daily...
https://schrts.co/ZmjSKZRJ
Treasury Borrowing Estimate At 3pm Today
$TQQQ.......10......+ Daily..
10..
https://schrts.co/wXwsqjkR
daily..+.R1....There is a GAP under 4/25...4/26 .....
https://schrts.co/pkBeZYUS...
I should have done more reshearch before I asked the question online. I fired up CS web site which they call "price". I then compared CS to TOS, price vs mark. They seemed to be the same.
I then click on the information box on CS for price and got this pop up. It seems to be right for both web sites. Not to hard to find for a very short time where price or mark is outside the B/A.
$TQQQ......30..........Daily...R1.....Trend HH...
30.
https://schrts.co/hukSQkWc
daily..+.R1....There is a GAP under 4/25...4/26 .....
https://schrts.co/pkBeZYUS
Mark is midpoint between bid/ask. TDA does not use this term. Until TOS I never saw the term "mark" used.
TOS using the term "mark" for what I assume is the latest trade price. Does TDA use this same term or other platforms?
Inflation just nailed my car insurance. I pay semi-annually. My new bill is up 19.2% from 6 months ago and a whopping 27.4% from a year ago. I am so glad inflation is only 3%+. What a joke, every new bill I open is up at least 25% from a year ago.
This is going to take this economy down big time. I really think we could easily see 10% interest rates. Inflation is a monster and is not going away.
sold KOLD +1.64%. I need to do a better job of setting up alerts. We move on to the next one.
thats a neat little map. Wow, the price as you said just popped, last time I looked KOLD bid/ask was UP over Friday close. NG is not a boring ticker!
These pops a lot of times are over-reactions so hopefully I can get out with a decent profit. I was going to move my stop to Fri LOD.
i just compared the front contract June with July and came up with 18% difference, yikes!
The chart below compares NG to the NG ETFs . NG went up 22% BOIL is 2X so it should be 44% .....it is not. At -3.8% BOIL has about a 20% mo decay.
Does this mean avoid BOIL? At this point I will be careful as I can on BOIL trades and keep the trades brief as possible. If a trade can make 10-20% or a 100% moonshot then decay is worth the risk
KOLD is opposite, so look for those trades.
insert-text-here
yep...#natgas July just popped...glad I sold my $KOLD Friday...a ship left Freeport over the weekend ... here's a site that shows vessel traffic...https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-95.332/centery:28.952/zoom:14
This is why I hate politics. This whole ban thing is to appease JB's base. It was also presented as a outright Ban (mainstream media leaves out the part of only certain countries being banned) Those countries will just buy some where else like RUSSIA. Also many of those countries will go back to COAL.
I read FX empire as well...NG intelligence costs $$$ so i gave them an email address to read the full article...twitter has some useful players on there with helpful info...
The $boil and $kold funds roll two #natgas futures contacts out because it theoretically can reduce roll yield decay. You can see this has actually been the case since the last roll as N24 has gone down less than M24. https://t.co/8phv9hEeG9
— DiveBombTrading (@DiveBomb321) April 28, 2024
It's not a ban altogether as such...itsa ban on new permits and a ban exporting to certain countries...this explains it better:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/23/united-states-ban-lng-sales-china/ Hopefully this lawsuit will get this ban lifted...not good seeing people lose there jobs over this...
This is incorrect:
Futures just opened just slightly higher than close. Long way to open, but a good sign I would say.
D > thanks > about all you can do
Thanks, that is good article. I read (or try to) 4 or 5 websites each day. I dont have a subscription with anyone so I get just the 1st paragraph on some articles.
Here's one free site, you might already have.
insert-text-here
latest article:
insert-text-here
I dont know either, but by the 6th trading day in May it will start a 5 day transistion, if not it will confirm that it is every two months. I tried to find that in writing on the prospectus but doesnt clarify. Just says "similar contracts with later expirations"
I guess it doesnt matter except to know the current holdings status.
If you are trading futures it wont matter anyway. You are going to trade June?
For sure Im watching the Freeport situation as that will spike price iniatially when it comes back on line.
Watch this chart for longer term picture/outlook. They are expecting the storage to top out over 4000mcf. A very hot summer could slow down the normal inventory build and be good for BOIL trades.
The answer is yes and no. Yes because it can show 4am to 8pm, no because it only will show data for about 2 1/2 days. But it works for me. I like trading the the 15min ext (extended) chart.
As you can see I got in late Thur and rode Fri rise. Still long as futures were flat into the 8pm shut down. I do almost no trading pre-market, but I am trading AH all the time.
I have been playing the chart pretty conservatively, but I am starting to get more aggressive. Thru had a very nice wave 3 setup about 11am, great place to enter.
Chart is now pretty topped out, so expecting a sell signal Monday and what I expect to be another small reset.
Joey B has his hands all over this too. When he first put this ban on LNG exports in place, it was prefaced as a way to fight global warming. Now according to the below video, the story is 'red tape'. I'm guessing this will be unresolved long enough to keep the ban in place beyond this coming election (to appease his base).
D > does SC have premaket and after hours or just 9:30 to 4 ??
I assumed it would be every month it rolls over and "replaces such contract with similar contracts with later expirations." This last rollover skipped June...but that doesn't mean it's not going to rollover again by May 6...
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