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Moderator: Duma Assistants: spdpro
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Last Post: 9/25/2020 7:34:45 PM - Followers: 79 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 2

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Example of the Four Phases that make up a Full Trade Cycle

Embedded charts are no longer allowed, so I will put links to the charts that I trade or follow very closely. Click on the link and it will come up current time in a new tab. Refresh anytime to see current data. (Oct 2019)

SPY-Trend Channels - Daily

SPXL-RSI - Daily

TQQQ-RSI - Daily

SPX-Market Breadth - Daily

NDX-Market Breadth - Daily


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

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Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


#21423   have a good weekend > Later spdpro 09/25/20 07:34:45 PM
#21422   look see > too busy for screens > Later spdpro 09/25/20 08:57:47 AM
#21421   look again in the overnight session spdpro 09/24/20 04:59:32 PM
#21420   See big red arrow. From 1pm yday. Duma 09/24/20 01:09:38 PM
#21419   wave 3 on what time frame. I could dotnet 09/24/20 12:00:16 PM
#21418   missed the premrkt hook > sit on hands spdpro 09/24/20 10:18:56 AM
#21417   Wave 3 baby. Duma 09/23/20 04:26:47 PM
#21416   WoW don't know what that was about but spdpro 09/23/20 03:18:28 PM
#21415   gamble play > In 50 @ 115.12 >> Nope spdpro 09/23/20 02:33:14 PM
#21414   don't like the patterns to go long spdpro 09/23/20 01:52:47 PM
#21413   view >> spdpro 09/23/20 12:34:34 PM
#21412   tqqq/sqqq used to do the same a while back spdpro 09/23/20 12:27:52 PM
#21411   Glad you brought that question up. I need Duma 09/23/20 12:03:00 PM
#21410   I just short TQQQ. Out at 121.39, so Duma 09/23/20 10:53:08 AM
#21409   you using sqqq or shorting tqqq > tqqq spdpro 09/23/20 10:39:35 AM
#21408   on this chart if you draw a trendline dotnet 09/23/20 10:30:36 AM
#21407   So what do we have, w4 of 5 Duma 09/23/20 10:26:48 AM
#21406   I don't trade by level along, I consider Duma 09/23/20 10:17:14 AM
#21405   so, exit will be break of first support dotnet 09/23/20 09:42:19 AM
#21404   Another pattern happening i saw from one of dotnet 09/23/20 09:36:36 AM
#21403   here is a "proxy" comparison chart /NQ to TQQQ spdpro 09/22/20 08:58:04 PM
#21402   I hope you are right. I really haven't Duma 09/22/20 08:27:43 PM
#21401   looks good > now what to do? spdpro 09/22/20 05:11:33 PM
#21400   its going to fill the gap at 126.59. dotnet 09/22/20 03:38:54 PM
#21399   I have been bit a little of this Duma 09/22/20 02:38:27 PM
#21398   I see it. very good info. you have dotnet 09/22/20 01:55:02 PM
#21397   look see > Done Nothing > "waiting game" spdpro 09/22/20 11:34:32 AM
#21396   115.91. Prices finally formed a higher low at Duma 09/22/20 09:54:24 AM
#21395   more to come > don't feel like I spdpro 09/21/20 07:00:12 PM
#21394   at what price if i may ask. thanks... dotnet 09/21/20 05:43:07 PM
#21393   Yes indeed, back long from 15min chart. Looks Duma 09/21/20 05:10:45 PM
#21392   cram up > that figures > Later spdpro 09/21/20 04:40:41 PM
#21391   Yea, I missed it too. Have been a Duma 09/21/20 01:28:17 PM
#21390   missed 2nd hook > Done for now > spdpro 09/21/20 11:13:02 AM
#21389   looking hard @ 108.0x area > spdpro 09/21/20 10:53:37 AM
#21388   see what the Futs do > other than spdpro 09/20/20 06:01:41 PM
#21387   Good trade have good weekend Duma 09/19/20 04:14:28 PM
#21386   blunder trade > spdpro 09/18/20 08:02:17 PM
#21385   That has to be the wildest OpEx I spdpro 09/18/20 05:43:14 PM
#21384   thanks > was way too busy to pay spdpro 09/18/20 12:31:58 PM
#21383   Have good one yourself. Good catch on the jaws57 09/18/20 11:42:30 AM
#21382   have a good weekend again > Later spdpro 09/18/20 10:01:48 AM
#21381   thank you spdpro 09/18/20 09:01:56 AM
#21380   spy>>ex-divi>> 1.339 paulgmx1 09/18/20 05:27:53 AM
#21379   10:23:29 Sold -50 TQQQ @120.255 > in the spdpro 09/17/20 12:41:25 PM
#21378   09:13:05 In BTO +50 TQQQ @ 116.16 > spdpro 09/17/20 09:17:43 AM
#21377   You have a good weekend also. Duma 09/12/20 10:06:13 AM
#21376   Later > Have a good weekend spdpro 09/11/20 08:08:02 PM
#21375   look see > skeptical of putting on a trade spdpro 09/11/20 02:32:15 PM
#21374   ?? do something or wait time >> "Again" spdpro 09/10/20 04:34:21 PM
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