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Moderator: Duma Assistants: spdpro
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Last Post: 10/21/2019 3:10:39 PM - Followers: 77 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 4

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Example of the Four Phases that make up a Full Trade Cycle

Embedded charts are no longer allowed, so I will put links to the charts that I trade or follow very closely. Click on the link and it will come up current time in a new tab. Refresh anytime to see current data. (Jan2019)


SSO-RSI 2-Daily


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

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Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


#20050  Sticky Note The entry for this current HC up was Duma 06/10/19 09:39:27 AM
#20414   Thanks . CITYHAWK 10/21/19 03:10:39 PM
#20413   I agree. Duma 10/21/19 02:49:58 PM
#20412   I see XLE as a possible example of CITYHAWK 10/21/19 02:31:01 PM
#20411   I determined that using RSI hitting 50 caused Duma 10/21/19 01:17:36 AM
#20410   you too spdpro CITYHAWK 10/18/19 01:10:49 PM
#20409   Thank you and i agree. CITYHAWK 10/18/19 01:08:29 PM
#20408   its amazing.on Rsi chart your sell trigger is dotnet 10/18/19 10:20:09 AM
#20407   have a good weekend gang > Later spdpro 10/18/19 09:36:38 AM
#20406   If you had just bought SPY at the Duma 10/17/19 03:52:25 PM
#20405   yes. me too. thanks for your replies. dotnet 10/17/19 11:30:31 AM
#20404   And they are well worth taking. Wave 3's rock. Duma 10/17/19 11:20:40 AM
#20403   Wave 5 got extended. Like I said, I Duma 10/17/19 11:19:50 AM
#20402   Hi Duma CITYHAWK 10/16/19 10:52:18 PM
#20401   Now that the waves are all in, this Duma 10/16/19 01:20:26 PM
#20400   Have good one yourself! jaws57 10/12/19 02:43:04 PM
#20399   I had posted several times that IMHO EW Duma 10/12/19 01:28:54 PM
#20398   For the present I am very happy with Duma 10/12/19 11:24:00 AM
#20396   Have a good weekend > Later spdpro 10/11/19 10:07:25 AM
#20395   I know you previously said, what is the dotnet 10/10/19 02:58:52 PM
#20394   Sharing from another board. dotnet 10/10/19 08:59:03 AM
#20393   Nice group of charts . CITYHAWK 10/08/19 08:39:40 PM
#20392   Here is weekly chart. Prices are still running Duma 10/08/19 07:32:10 PM
#20391   Market Breadth is quickly becoming a favorite chart Duma 10/08/19 10:08:16 AM
#20390   15min M65 cycles are soo good and soo Duma 10/08/19 09:57:43 AM
#20389   It is a long way to the bottom Duma 10/08/19 09:54:03 AM
#20388   I am assuming you thought I was going Duma 10/08/19 09:49:47 AM
#20387   i do not see M-65 flat? dotnet 10/08/19 09:18:07 AM
#20386   Was re reading The Street Smarts book . CITYHAWK 10/07/19 09:51:07 PM
#20385   Hi Duma CITYHAWK 10/07/19 09:41:48 PM
#20384   Check out this post also. Duma 10/05/19 06:25:48 PM
#20383   I couldn't find the rules either, so here Duma 10/05/19 06:03:54 PM
#20382   Hawk > All Good here spdpro 10/04/19 06:45:40 PM
#20381   How Be Rock Chair SP ??? CITYHAWK 10/04/19 06:44:50 PM
#20380   Hawk > send some of that cold weather spdpro 10/04/19 06:33:42 PM
#20379   Hi Duma CITYHAWK 10/04/19 06:31:07 PM
#20378   Have good weekend gang > Later spdpro 10/04/19 09:52:19 AM
#20377   Sounds about right Duma 10/04/19 09:47:59 AM
#20376   very good points spdpro 10/04/19 08:23:05 AM
#20375   Did some reading and they also make money jaws57 10/03/19 05:45:15 PM
#20374   I believe it. Duma 10/03/19 05:07:39 PM
#20373   D > like a post I saw last spdpro 10/02/19 07:15:12 PM
#20372   ???? > I have not had time to spdpro 10/02/19 02:21:14 PM
#20371   Any catch to this? I got TDA acct jaws57 10/02/19 10:54:00 AM
#20370   Well this is a great start to OCT. Duma 10/02/19 10:52:36 AM
#20369   So what does that say about the brokerage Duma 10/02/19 10:40:19 AM
#20368   well that didn't take long > spdpro 10/02/19 09:26:44 AM
#20367   > check this out > spdpro 10/01/19 04:16:38 PM
#20366   TQQQ 10/30.....60.33... .. haha11 10/01/19 03:04:22 PM
#20365   TQQQ 10 / 15/60 + D...PP 62.86 haha11 10/01/19 09:49:30 AM
#20364   All, have good rest of your weekend. I jaws57 09/28/19 10:57:43 PM