Home > Boards > Free Zone > User's Groups >

Cycle Trading

RSS Feed
      Hide Sticky   Hide Intro
Moderator: Duma Assistants: spdpro
Search This Board: 
Last Post: 1/18/2019 12:35:34 PM - Followers: 73 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 0

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Example of the Four Phases that make up a Full Trade Cycle

Embedded charts are no longer allowed, so I will put links to the charts that I trade or follow very closely. Click on the link and it will come up current time in a new tab. Refresh anytime to see current data. (Jan2019)


SSO-RSI 2-Daily


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

Block pop-up ads http://www.adfender.com/

Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


PlusOneCoin Top Posts
No plusone'd posts yet. Be the first!
#19728   have a good long weekend > Later spdpro 01/18/19 12:35:34 PM
#19727   NOT always daily( w3=w5) more time experience haha11 01/18/19 11:37:06 AM
#19726   your chart shows the 5 waves more clearly. jaws57 01/18/19 11:23:35 AM
#19725   (E)lets see VIX daily..BEAR...note STO..at sleep NOW ..under 20 haha11 01/18/19 11:18:35 AM
#19724   SPY D...the forecast SPY 269 +/- with grain haha11 01/18/19 10:53:52 AM
#19723   see if we stay and close above it. jaws57 01/18/19 10:15:37 AM
#19722   don't forget > Mrkt shut on Monday > spdpro 01/18/19 12:04:38 AM
#19721   WOW some news..?SPX EW5UP...bulls still run up haha11 01/17/19 02:57:19 PM
#19720   Key is to back test and refine your rules. Duma 01/17/19 11:07:01 AM
#19719   very interesting. by far yours is the most dotnet 01/17/19 10:57:01 AM
#19718   SPX DAILY.. haha11 01/17/19 10:37:11 AM
#19717   Thanks Duma. farooq 01/17/19 10:32:48 AM
#19716   There have been 12 trading days so far Duma 01/17/19 10:28:10 AM
#19715   Okay, same here. And I am adopting your Duma 01/17/19 10:25:13 AM
#19714   whoops, I meant 10ema and xo of the jaws57 01/17/19 10:18:55 AM
#19713   Your chart linked fine. Really big. Duma 01/17/19 10:14:32 AM
#19712   None of my rules involve CCI. I have Duma 01/17/19 10:08:42 AM
#19711   Watching 50MA(2626) and 50% retrace from ATH 2643. jaws57 01/17/19 09:49:19 AM
#19710   Still long, watching for close below 50MA or jaws57 01/17/19 09:41:07 AM
#19709   Thanks for info.. haha11 01/17/19 09:16:36 AM
#19708   Is CCI 30 is better on 15 min farooq 01/16/19 07:04:41 PM
#19707   Have to remove the s in https for Duma 01/16/19 03:56:39 PM
#19706   TQQQ had wider swings than TNA in Aug dealerschool2006 01/16/19 03:28:24 PM
#19705   Thanks for conformation... haha11 01/16/19 02:17:20 PM
#19704   Doesn't work the way I have always done Duma 01/16/19 02:00:17 PM
#19703   Might make it. Who knows. Duma 01/16/19 01:57:01 PM
#19702   The market seldom move sideways for a long Duma 01/16/19 01:56:09 PM
#19701   CAN SPX fly over MA50 about haha11 01/16/19 01:51:01 PM
#19700   Look like " Permalink " working today haha11 01/16/19 01:41:08 PM
#19699   Wave count will put TNA near 57 IMOP. farooq 01/16/19 01:40:43 PM
#19698   I'm wondering if we see sideways trading from dealerschool2006 01/16/19 12:45:33 PM
#19697   TNA (as well as TQQQ and SSO) are Duma 01/16/19 11:35:22 AM
#19696   ya, I kinda forgot about TNA after the dealerschool2006 01/15/19 04:05:58 PM
#19695   Good trade. 12.6% 3x. Duma 01/15/19 03:28:20 PM
#19694   Profit is a profit. farooq 01/15/19 01:01:09 PM
#19693   I sold TNA @ 50.60, I was surprised dealerschool2006 01/15/19 12:39:28 PM
#19692   I don't trade with stop loss, but thanx...Sold dealerschool2006 01/15/19 12:37:36 PM
#19691   Looks like this run from Jan 2nd wants Duma 01/15/19 12:29:12 PM
#19690   On either a 15min or 30min chart, I Duma 01/15/19 11:09:46 AM
#19689   You should read and learn and ask if farooq 01/14/19 11:25:58 PM
#19688   Are we at the sell signal for TNA ??? dealerschool2006 01/14/19 10:04:46 PM
#19687   test dump > Later spdpro 01/13/19 05:29:05 PM
#19685   Good thought Duma 01/13/19 04:12:31 PM
#19684   Its probably a link on the VRTHF board dealerschool2006 01/13/19 04:11:17 PM
#19683   I little late, but you too. Duma 01/13/19 03:42:59 PM
#19682   I tried some things, but no success. I Duma 01/13/19 03:32:28 PM
#19681   I don't normally trade the downside, but really Duma 01/13/19 03:30:43 PM
#19680   have a good weekend gang > later spdpro 01/11/19 11:17:41 PM
#19679   ya, I was looking at the articles about dealerschool2006 01/11/19 04:19:13 PM
#19678   Does not apply on professional trader. They aggregate farooq 01/11/19 03:57:59 PM