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Last Post: 9/22/2018 12:44:26 PM - Followers: 75 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 0

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Note: I like to use 60min chart to time entries.

Major Indexes YTD


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

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#19476   TLT 2x15/2X30 + Daily (Came across) ..IS READY haha11 09/22/18 12:44:26 PM
#19475   spy divi>> $ 1.323 paulgmx1 09/21/18 03:26:23 AM
#19474   dell supportassist jxyzobrien 09/18/18 08:07:29 PM
#19473   will try to find jxyzobrien 09/18/18 12:06:02 PM
#19472   J > not certain? > all I use spdpro 09/18/18 11:39:41 AM
#19471   mouse question jxyzobrien 09/18/18 11:17:33 AM
#19470   good event summary > video spdpro 09/17/18 11:20:31 PM
#19469   As you know market fell apart this morning, Duma 09/17/18 03:42:17 PM
#19468   I usually have a lower protection May be farooq 09/17/18 03:06:13 PM
#19467   One stock I have been watching and doing Duma 09/16/18 07:02:08 PM
#19466   Watched an interesting Tasty Trade segment today which Duma 09/16/18 06:05:48 PM
#19465   Have a good weekend all. Duma 09/15/18 09:55:52 AM
#19464   another weekend > Later spdpro 09/14/18 05:05:28 PM
#19463   SQQQ Daily ... above 11.52 not good for TQQQ.. haha11 09/14/18 11:33:46 AM
#19462   I moved my stop to just below Y jaws57 09/13/18 01:41:01 PM
#19461   Thanks. I am thinking to increase my trading size farooq 09/13/18 01:13:35 PM
#19460   Market looks better this morning. SSO has been Duma 09/13/18 09:57:12 AM
#19459   The reason I gave you the larger number Duma 09/13/18 09:51:04 AM
#19458   Well TQQQ 10,000 shares will be 676,100 $ farooq 09/12/18 04:09:42 PM
#19457   I'm sorry, you much have me confused with Duma 09/12/18 03:44:15 PM
#19456   How liquid is TQQQ? farooq 09/12/18 12:32:41 PM
#19455   For sure 30min chart gave a much better Duma 09/11/18 12:46:36 PM
#19454   I have my stops a few ticks below Duma 09/11/18 09:52:17 AM
#19453   So according to the system where would be farooq 09/11/18 09:25:25 AM
#19452   Looks like market is gradually gathering steam. Duma 09/10/18 02:38:49 PM
#19451   I like the channel, hope it holds. Not Duma 09/10/18 01:19:20 PM
#19450   look see > Later spdpro 09/10/18 11:56:54 AM
#19449   new channel? got buy signal off of open jaws57 09/10/18 11:30:21 AM
#19448   M65 flatten out very nicely at the close Duma 09/07/18 11:14:31 AM
#19447   have a good weekend > Later spdpro 09/07/18 10:41:29 AM
#19446   Good to look at daily and even weekly jaws57 09/06/18 11:52:07 AM
#19445   Not even close to a sell for SPY Duma 09/05/18 01:15:05 PM
#19444   SSO and TQQQ have broken out this morning Duma 09/05/18 01:08:29 PM
#19443   I like your channel lines. I haven't been Duma 09/05/18 01:03:35 PM
#19442   I looking at 30m chart now. Need to jaws57 09/05/18 11:08:06 AM
#19441   We have a full rout going on now. Duma 09/05/18 10:25:09 AM
#19440   As TQQQ heads for MD (mark down), it Duma 09/04/18 02:16:22 PM
#19439   Sept has historically been the weakest month of Duma 09/04/18 02:11:07 PM
#19438   Good month at 6.9%. Would like to do Duma 08/31/18 06:22:14 PM
#19437   Will be heading home in the morning. Will Duma 08/31/18 06:18:17 PM
#19436   Likewise SPD. jaws57 08/31/18 04:35:12 PM
#19435   another weekend > enjoy > Later spdpro 08/31/18 03:13:59 PM
#19434   SSO 15min got a sell signal a bit Duma 08/30/18 06:13:55 PM
#19433   Expect the trend to continue until it doesn't. farooq 08/29/18 12:28:39 PM
#19432   Boy there is no stopping this market. SSO Duma 08/29/18 10:42:05 AM
#19431   look > see > Later spdpro 08/28/18 01:59:25 PM
#19430   You too Duma 08/25/18 09:29:15 AM
#19429   Have fun be safe. jaws57 08/24/18 11:20:13 AM
#19428   enjoy > have a good weekend > Later spdpro 08/24/18 10:23:55 AM
#19427   Leaving in the morning for a week of Duma 08/23/18 08:27:20 PM