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Last Post: 11/20/2018 9:47:09 AM - Followers: 74 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 5

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
 
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
 
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?

 

Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.









PHASE TRADING
 
The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.


 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 


Note: I like to use 60min chart to time entries.









Major Indexes YTD





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10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

 
Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 


Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan


Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

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Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


 

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#19553   TQQQ was 57 on Nov 8th. Low this Duma 11/20/18 09:47:09 AM
#19552   SPY daily moved into MD (mark down) 2 Duma 11/20/18 09:44:31 AM
#19551   watching TQQQ 30m. jaws57 11/20/18 09:41:21 AM
#19550   Not a pretty picture. IWM now negative for Duma 11/20/18 09:40:18 AM
#19549   Yep, todays open nullify pattern. See if we jaws57 11/20/18 09:39:15 AM
#19548   if it makes new low pattern will be void. farooq 11/19/18 10:21:55 AM
#19547   Inverted SHS pattern? saw this on a blog jaws57 11/18/18 07:58:54 PM
#19546   I played around "again" with trading a 3min Duma 11/18/18 12:42:14 PM
#19545   I was trading 5 min chart. Buy was farooq 11/18/18 07:47:53 AM
#19544   Good quick trade. What time frame were you trading? Duma 11/17/18 09:58:36 AM
#19543   You too. Duma 11/17/18 09:21:25 AM
#19542   have a good weekend > Later spdpro 11/16/18 12:46:41 PM
#19541   (E)UDOW 10/15/30 + D. + VIX 10...LIVE charts..UDOW haha11 11/16/18 10:34:41 AM
#19540   TNA VIX 10...the more vix down the more haha11 11/15/18 04:21:20 PM
#19539   real spastic tape/s, tough to have confidence spdpro 11/15/18 04:15:40 PM
#19538   Out 63. farooq 11/15/18 03:55:03 PM
#19537   (E)TNA 5/10/15 + VIX 10..LIVE charts...good for you congratulation.. haha11 11/15/18 02:20:17 PM
#19536   TNA VIX 10...LOOK VIX daily today candle push down.. haha11 11/15/18 02:10:15 PM
#19535   Went long at 59.50, TNA. Now stop at farooq 11/15/18 01:58:44 PM
#19534   TNA 10 15 30...+ Daily ...daily trend LL now.. haha11 11/15/18 01:55:10 PM
#19533   Really nothing to see, every run up turns Duma 11/15/18 08:18:54 AM
#19532   look see > Later spdpro 11/14/18 12:22:10 PM
#19531   waiting for long, Im afk-mobile so missed short. jaws57 11/12/18 11:44:38 AM
#19530   Back into free fall this morning. Made a Duma 11/12/18 11:05:25 AM
#19529   After FED speak I will end my swing jaws57 11/07/18 11:54:26 AM
#19528   yep spdpro 11/07/18 10:46:50 AM
#19527   Looks like uncertainty is removed. On to Fedspeak Wed jaws57 11/06/18 11:53:38 PM
#19526   no d&p for fomc this month, in Dec Yes spdpro 11/06/18 10:58:39 AM
#19525   Be interesting what the FED statement is after jaws57 11/05/18 09:40:03 PM
#19524   I expect some crazy emini futures games tomorrow night spdpro 11/05/18 12:51:26 PM
#19523   good analysis Duma 11/05/18 12:09:56 PM
#19522   later this week could get really ugly. jaws57 11/05/18 09:12:38 AM
#19521   TQQQ 15 ...may help me to learn in/out..?..thanks haha11 11/03/18 12:34:18 PM
#19520   have a good weekend > Later gang spdpro 11/02/18 05:03:44 PM
#19519   fixed mouse jxyzobrien 11/01/18 11:04:11 AM
#19518   I had to react today, we will see Duma 10/31/18 06:55:09 PM
#19517   look see > Later spdpro 10/30/18 12:52:09 PM
#19516   Between VAC and now back to FTJ, can’t jaws57 10/29/18 04:21:41 PM
#19515   ? not certain on that one > spdpro 10/28/18 12:53:10 AM
#19514   recording stock videos jxyzobrien 10/27/18 12:35:23 PM
#19513   Oh have the mighty fallen. Duma 10/26/18 03:47:40 PM
#19512   TQQQ 5...TQQQ + VIX 5 one chart... haha11 10/26/18 03:39:01 PM
#19511   You have a good one also. Going to Duma 10/26/18 03:38:04 PM
#19510   (E)TQQQ VIX...5...+TQQQ DAILY R.S...TA. TQQQ still bearish.. haha11 10/26/18 12:51:23 PM
#19509   r2k looks like gap fill > hold nose spdpro 10/26/18 12:50:14 PM
#19508   Got a bounce after the open, but looks Duma 10/26/18 10:50:24 AM
#19507   good deal that was ugly spdpro 10/26/18 10:02:15 AM
#19506   My stops got me out just after the Duma 10/26/18 08:36:17 AM
#19505   AH wiped that out spdpro 10/25/18 05:17:46 PM
#19504   TQQQ 5 10 15 30 M. haha11 10/25/18 02:53:05 PM
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