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Last Post: 4/20/2018 7:47:51 PM - Followers: 76 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 5

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
 
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
 
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?

 

Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.









PHASE TRADING
 
The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.


 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 


Note: I like to use 60min chart to time entries.









Major Indexes YTD





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10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

 
Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 


Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan


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PostSubject
#18845  Sticky Note I was going through my old charts from Duma 03/07/18 11:25:30 AM
#18803  Sticky Note This is a long post about option spreads Duma 02/24/18 04:02:26 PM
#18789  Sticky Note Here is an update for the RSI 2 Duma 02/18/18 11:14:19 AM
#18692  Sticky Note Over the past year or so Jaws and Duma 01/15/18 02:37:26 PM
#19079   You too. jaws57 04/20/18 07:47:51 PM
#19078   have a good weekend > real busy spdpro 04/20/18 01:34:12 PM
#19077   I consider myself lucky to get the 10c jaws57 04/20/18 11:34:01 AM
#19076   Gamble paid off, thanks for tip Jaws. CNDT Duma 04/20/18 10:30:40 AM
#19075   Closed out RSI positions at the close yday Duma 04/20/18 10:20:16 AM
#19074   F dividend on 19th earnings on 25TH spdpro 04/18/18 09:15:03 PM
#19073   There are huge trades in Ford calls today farooq 04/18/18 04:23:15 PM
#19072   look see Busy > Later spdpro 04/18/18 12:52:55 PM
#19071   My last entry for RSI2 daily was really Duma 04/17/18 09:49:39 AM
#19070   Been watching TSLA since I wrote my post Duma 04/17/18 09:44:37 AM
#19069   I like using the shorter term spreads. The Duma 04/17/18 09:35:28 AM
#19068   Cold one here. Duma 04/14/18 03:36:28 PM
#19067   Great chart- Looks like topping action Plscraig 04/13/18 11:34:37 AM
#19066   have a good weekend > Later spdpro 04/13/18 11:04:16 AM
#19065   With the gap at the opening, I now Duma 04/13/18 10:04:32 AM
#19064   That is exactly what I did, rolled it Duma 04/12/18 10:04:03 AM
#19063   I did the same thing, which clearly was Duma 04/12/18 10:01:01 AM
#19062   I cannot even begin to list all the spdpro 04/11/18 09:14:38 PM
#19061   Roll over if you still think move is farooq 04/11/18 07:11:06 PM
#19060   I sold the SSO position for small profit jaws57 04/11/18 04:12:54 PM
#19059   I screwed up when I bought my MU Duma 04/11/18 01:50:39 PM
#19058   nice dog and pony show. there are like dotnet 04/11/18 11:01:17 AM
#19057   same today he is still dancing around with spdpro 04/11/18 10:46:33 AM
#19056   In MU earlier PM. So Im in 4 jaws57 04/10/18 07:19:22 PM
#19055   sounded like he was almost crying on the jaws57 04/10/18 07:16:11 PM
#19054   watching Zuk squirm is entertaining > spdpro 04/10/18 04:27:31 PM
#19053   100% agree. Duma 04/10/18 12:29:42 PM
#19052   Yep, I think focus better spent on MU. jaws57 04/10/18 12:06:35 PM
#19051   I am not playing anybody with a cloud Duma 04/10/18 12:04:40 PM
#19050   Okay, now I remember. You could hit it big. Duma 04/10/18 12:04:01 PM
#19049   A tempting spread play would be FB, beaten jaws57 04/10/18 11:22:52 AM
#19048   I bought the 20 strike. Calculated gamble. Using jaws57 04/10/18 11:16:47 AM
#19047   Watching 2 in buyzone, MU/SGH. MU has a jaws57 04/10/18 11:12:01 AM
#19046   Our CNDT calls are starting to look a Duma 04/10/18 10:37:17 AM
#19045   I was watching SBUX also, but missed that Duma 04/10/18 10:25:09 AM
#19044   This is the next stock on my radar Duma 04/10/18 10:23:01 AM
#19043   I like where PAYC is on the 60min Duma 04/10/18 10:20:44 AM
#19042   15min chart did a great job of taking Duma 04/09/18 11:44:05 AM
#19041   Yep, you will find lot of stuff that jaws57 04/08/18 07:26:02 PM
#19040   same > boxes boxes, packing prior move > spdpro 04/07/18 02:57:17 PM
#19039   So I placed an order for TNA at Plscraig 04/07/18 02:47:30 PM
#19038   I am long CNDT 17.5c also. My gambling Duma 04/07/18 08:58:04 AM
#19037   The last 15min upcycle generated a gain 2.5% Duma 04/07/18 08:56:39 AM
#19036   cheers ! spdpro 04/06/18 09:16:55 PM
#19035   closed my SSO also, got almost 50% profit, jaws57 04/06/18 08:05:03 PM
#19034   Box of wine = good time jaws57 04/06/18 07:51:39 PM
#19033   i would like to get in tna at Plscraig 04/06/18 07:40:20 PM
#19032   Yes enjoy nice cold one! I am at jaws57 04/06/18 07:39:30 PM
#19031   As I posted 15min charts are in cash Duma 04/06/18 05:18:41 PM
#19030   Now it seems that many of your charts Plscraig 04/06/18 04:53:16 PM
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