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Last Post: 5/20/2019 2:51:44 PM - Followers: 76 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 0

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
 
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
 
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?

 

Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.









PHASE TRADING
 
The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.


 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 


Example of the Four Phases that make up a Full Trade Cycle



Embedded charts are no longer allowed, so I will put links to the charts that I trade or follow very closely. Click on the link and it will come up current time in a new tab. Refresh anytime to see current data. (Jan2019)

SSO-30min
http://schrts.co/pchiTTWD

SSO-RSI 2-Daily
http://schrts.co/sWBiYjEa






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10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

 
Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 


Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan


Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

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Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


 

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PostSubject
#20002  Sticky Note As I was working with the 60min chart Duma 05/15/19 03:41:42 PM
#19950  Sticky Note I have seen article after article about what Duma 05/01/19 01:13:17 PM
#19850  Sticky Note http://schrts.co/fwuUjmAH SSO RSI 2 Daily Duma 04/02/19 06:11:14 PM
#20016   It looks like # 2 is getting close, Duma 05/20/19 02:51:44 PM
#20015   Market sucked last week as all 3 major Duma 05/19/19 02:20:41 PM
#20014   same to you. Duma 05/17/19 11:07:39 AM
#20013   have a good weekend > Later spdpro 05/17/19 09:33:52 AM
#20012   Very true, and those who adapt. farooq 05/16/19 02:40:22 PM
#20011   I like the way you stated that. This Duma 05/16/19 11:28:05 AM
#20010   Yes very nice. Just follow the charts and Duma 05/16/19 11:24:31 AM
#20009   It is working again. Duma 05/16/19 11:23:33 AM
#20008   yes,any system is much better with etfs than dotnet 05/16/19 10:43:42 AM
#20007   Congrats on the 20k board. Good little pop jaws57 05/16/19 10:40:40 AM
#20006   don't forget it's OpEx week > Later spdpro 05/16/19 12:43:28 AM
#20005   Congratulation on the mile stone. farooq 05/15/19 06:07:59 PM
#20004   I think 94 to 85.81 was A and farooq 05/15/19 06:01:09 PM
#20003   I just noticed that our board hit a Duma 05/15/19 04:20:54 PM
#20002   As I was working with the 60min chart Duma 05/15/19 03:41:42 PM
#20001   My rules call for RSI entry to be Duma 05/15/19 03:16:45 PM
#20000   looks like it triggered this morning or eod yesterday? dotnet 05/15/19 02:37:26 PM
#19999   When I look at a daily chart it Duma 05/15/19 02:09:08 PM
#19998   So now SPY and QQQ have triggered buys Duma 05/15/19 01:34:29 PM
#19997   Good idea. Duma 05/15/19 11:51:05 AM
#19996   Yes my TQQQ triggered. Missed the 15 and Duma 05/15/19 11:50:35 AM
#19995   added like amt of SPXL, in a little jaws57 05/15/19 10:54:54 AM
#19994   In TQQQ 100% lev jaws57 05/15/19 10:29:51 AM
#19993   The essence of any swing trading system boils Duma 05/14/19 01:07:24 PM
#19992   i waited and bailed out yesterday for small dotnet 05/14/19 10:18:50 AM
#19991   Quickly out with the turn. Duma 05/13/19 03:26:25 PM
#19990   Yes, I am long spxl and options Duma 05/13/19 02:55:42 PM
#19989   3 min m65 and 15 min m12 buy dotnet 05/13/19 01:58:38 PM
#19988   This just out Duma 05/13/19 11:20:05 AM
#19987   The market is so afraid of the China Duma 05/13/19 10:54:45 AM
#19986   yes.did catch some but i have to say dotnet 05/13/19 10:11:24 AM
#19985   I track and trade SPY, QQQ, and FAS Duma 05/11/19 04:02:26 PM
#19984   Nothing but rain here. Sick of it. Enjoy Duma 05/11/19 03:38:32 PM
#19983   This was really a good week for trading Duma 05/11/19 03:30:54 PM
#19982   thanks > same to all > Later spdpro 05/10/19 04:25:51 PM
#19981   Have good weekend all! jaws57 05/10/19 02:35:22 PM
#19980   interesting to back test adx(14) on 15 min dotnet 05/10/19 10:41:43 AM
#19979   She is far from successful. I have Duma 05/10/19 08:46:31 AM
#19978   that is correct spdpro 05/09/19 07:43:16 PM
#19977   the only “HOLY GRAIL” belongs to the spdpro 05/09/19 07:39:14 PM
#19976   You know how I feel about paying someone Duma 05/09/19 02:46:12 PM
#19975   I use Stock Charts and I believe they Duma 05/09/19 12:14:47 PM
#19974   In your macd 12,26,5 is it sma or dotnet 05/09/19 10:45:48 AM
#19973   Yes I have some new things I am Duma 05/09/19 10:24:31 AM
#19972   look,see > Later spdpro 05/09/19 10:11:53 AM
#19971   i am just catching up with all the dotnet 05/09/19 10:11:04 AM
#19970   watching 15m chart. Not finished falling, VIX over jaws57 05/07/19 12:07:15 PM
#19969   Ugly today for sure. No bounce yet. Duma 05/07/19 11:05:37 AM
#19968   Wow, I haven't look at a 60min charts Duma 05/06/19 02:34:26 PM
#19967   Could you please see intra day 60 min farooq 05/06/19 12:58:17 PM
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