Home > Boards > Free Zone > User's Groups >

Cycle Trading

RSS Feed
      Hide Sticky   Hide Intro
Moderator: Duma Assistants: spdpro
Search This Board: 
Last Post: 3/27/2020 5:26:21 PM - Followers: 79 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 0

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Example of the Four Phases that make up a Full Trade Cycle

Embedded charts are no longer allowed, so I will put links to the charts that I trade or follow very closely. Click on the link and it will come up current time in a new tab. Refresh anytime to see current data. (Oct 2019)

SPX-Trend Channels - Daily

SPXL-RSI - Daily

TQQQ-RSI - Daily

SPX-Market Breadth - Daily

NDX-Market Breadth - Daily


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

Block pop-up ads http://www.adfender.com/

Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


#20420  Sticky Note I keep talking about the 5 daily charts Duma 10/24/19 06:28:20 PM
#20976   you too. farooq 03/27/20 05:26:21 PM
#20975   have a Good Safe weekend All >> Later spdpro 03/27/20 05:24:39 PM
#20974   about ready to go Full Scalper mode again spdpro 03/27/20 11:46:27 AM
#20973   nice to have seat time again to sort spdpro 03/27/20 10:31:39 AM
#20972   I hate to say but this is most jaws57 03/26/20 05:44:47 PM
#20971   M65 is starting to show signs of flatting, Duma 03/26/20 12:22:49 PM
#20970   holding what I have on > out the spdpro 03/25/20 09:58:41 AM
#20969   thank you spdpro 03/25/20 09:57:33 AM
#20968   iwm divi>> $.41988 paulgmx1 03/25/20 06:10:18 AM
#20967   So true. But Uncle Sam is saying he Duma 03/24/20 06:20:26 PM
#20966   15:34:25 in "added" 50 SVXY @ 31.49 > spdpro 03/24/20 03:37:04 PM
#20965   redo 08/09 > spdpro 03/24/20 03:29:27 PM
#20964   Absolutely agree. Instead of fixing the virus situation, dotnet 03/24/20 01:59:40 PM
#20963   Good Logic ~ Bad Logic > sitting on hands spdpro 03/24/20 01:43:08 PM
#20962   SP500 records list > spdpro 03/24/20 12:46:12 PM
#20961   I am expecting a sell signal by EOD. Duma 03/24/20 12:11:25 PM
#20960   I am at a lose as to what Duma 03/24/20 12:05:55 PM
#20958   copy > outta here > Have a good day spdpro 03/24/20 11:56:26 AM
#20957   I won't buy per RSI even if it Duma 03/24/20 11:55:04 AM
#20956   No not that good. 38.12 in at 19:17 Duma 03/24/20 11:53:38 AM
#20955   interesting.it did not break 2 day close yet. dotnet 03/24/20 11:38:45 AM
#20954   D > u in @ 35.5X area or spdpro 03/24/20 11:19:42 AM
#20953   I went long TQQQ about 7:20 last evening. Duma 03/24/20 11:17:40 AM
#20952   same status svxy tqqq holding > Hold all spdpro 03/24/20 10:46:48 AM
#20951   All the grocery stores are letting limited people Duma 03/23/20 04:52:11 PM
#20950   missed some hooks but waits for the "big spdpro 03/23/20 01:07:36 PM
#20949   thanks spdpro 03/23/20 11:19:10 AM
#20948   divi of .385 paid today by qqq paulgmx1 03/23/20 06:05:37 AM
#20947   Yep > Locked > Stimulus Not announced spdpro 03/22/20 07:17:53 PM
#20946   Looks like some trades at the limit, NQ jaws57 03/22/20 06:58:42 PM
#20945   same going on here not much more to spdpro 03/22/20 05:40:20 PM
#20944   Our mayor just passed a law/ordinance saying any jaws57 03/22/20 05:08:55 PM
#20943   This is the "black swan" we have always jaws57 03/22/20 04:47:37 PM
#20942   J > all good here > hope same > spdpro 03/22/20 04:42:02 PM
#20941   Not bad actually. I will watch. Duma 03/22/20 04:32:34 PM
#20940   Thanks Ill try, I work at a home jaws57 03/22/20 04:27:20 PM
#20939   Barry > spdpro 03/22/20 03:28:08 PM
#20938   look at these numbers > spdpro 03/22/20 02:33:51 PM
#20937   Moving cross over in this environment can be farooq 03/22/20 11:50:30 AM
#20936   D > this is what I'm using at spdpro 03/22/20 01:44:22 AM
#20935   The market peaked this year on 3/11. Since Duma 03/21/20 11:14:41 AM
#20934   Will do, same to all. Duma 03/21/20 10:46:42 AM
#20933   Thanks Duma 03/21/20 10:29:58 AM
#20932   have a good "safe" weekend gang > Later spdpro 03/20/20 06:26:59 PM
#20931   16:39:42 IN 100 tqqq @ 34.76 spdpro 03/20/20 05:00:57 PM
#20930   stumbled on this > had to pass on > spdpro 03/20/20 11:23:56 AM
#20929   thanks spdpro 03/20/20 09:58:31 AM
#20928   spy>>ex-divi>> 1.4056 paulgmx1 03/20/20 04:58:38 AM
#20927   $WTRH SpotOnTrade 03/19/20 08:53:06 PM
#20926   Barry >> spdpro 03/19/20 06:39:24 PM