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Last Post: 7/20/2018 6:00:11 PM - Followers: 77 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 0

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Note: I like to use 60min chart to time entries.

Major Indexes YTD


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

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#19250  Sticky Note M65 on 30min has now rolled over and Duma 07/18/18 01:54:59 PM
#19277   Off to the pub for an Irish Ale. Duma 07/20/18 06:00:11 PM
#19276   Off to the FTJ, good trading! Have good jaws57 07/20/18 01:41:05 PM
#19275   Here were my trades to cash Duma 07/19/18 09:40:44 PM
#19274   I hope so, seemed like a shaky trade jaws57 07/19/18 06:06:29 PM
#19273   Good set up. farooq 07/19/18 04:58:38 PM
#19272   short signal EOD, in small jaws57 07/19/18 04:09:35 PM
#19271   Going mobile, market trying to make up its jaws57 07/19/18 01:23:00 PM
#19270   My system is cash and a close below jaws57 07/19/18 01:15:09 PM
#19269   The market opened above my profit stop and jaws57 07/19/18 01:03:49 PM
#19268   Was you stopped out in morning dip or farooq 07/19/18 12:19:55 PM
#19267   My 15min charts have signaled cash, but 30min Duma 07/19/18 11:35:53 AM
#19266   Right on. Duma 07/19/18 11:35:10 AM
#19265   Your data is correct in assumption. farooq 07/19/18 11:17:22 AM
#19264   I have posted about this several times in Duma 07/19/18 11:08:40 AM
#19263   If you buy a 3x fund and just Duma 07/19/18 11:03:38 AM
#19262   IMHOP all 3X ETF should be traded as farooq 07/19/18 10:25:05 AM
#19261   Since March, SPY has acted just like a Duma 07/19/18 10:12:39 AM
#19260   E> I got stopped out at support. @280. jaws57 07/19/18 10:10:50 AM
#19259   Been watching that also, nice chart. The link jaws57 07/19/18 09:42:58 AM
#19258   A lot of people have started posting that Duma 07/18/18 03:58:07 PM
#19257   Hi Bro, jaws57 07/18/18 03:06:10 PM
#19256   I have also starting trading TNA small. From Duma 07/18/18 02:55:08 PM
#19255   Gosh I love preaching to the choir. I Duma 07/18/18 02:33:57 PM
#19254   duma spy,sso,tqqq,fdn what else you watch. dotnet 07/18/18 02:28:52 PM
#19253   Trading the indexes is really all that is needed jaws57 07/18/18 02:25:12 PM
#19252   FDN (Interent EFT) is doing just fine. FB Duma 07/18/18 02:14:12 PM
#19251   BA is the only stock I have left Duma 07/18/18 02:05:15 PM
#19250   M65 on 30min has now rolled over and Duma 07/18/18 01:54:59 PM
#19249   Support at 280. view jaws57 07/18/18 01:06:22 PM
#19248   im looking for SPY 281.80 for target. I jaws57 07/18/18 02:51:34 AM
#19247   don't forget it's OpEx week spdpro 07/18/18 02:04:53 AM
#19246   SSO (SPY) continues to show growth in MU Duma 07/17/18 08:05:52 PM
#19245   If they will be liquidating it should have farooq 07/17/18 03:33:16 PM
#19244   farooq, yes the gaps are being filled faster dotnet 07/17/18 03:03:26 PM
#19243   I have noticed a market behavior that if farooq 07/17/18 01:46:42 PM
#19242   back to this again > spdpro 07/17/18 01:39:58 PM
#19241   crazy, insane, what other words can I come spdpro 07/17/18 01:30:39 PM
#19240   We are getting there for sure (wave 5). Duma 07/17/18 12:54:04 PM
#19239   View of possible count. jaws57 07/17/18 12:45:52 PM
#19238   Me too, good trading for both of us. Duma 07/17/18 12:43:27 PM
#19237   I don't know if I helped or hurt. Duma 07/17/18 12:42:24 PM
#19236   Maybe w3 of w5 happening now? Survived open jaws57 07/17/18 12:41:41 PM
#19235   Who would have thought the market would turn Duma 07/17/18 12:35:24 PM
#19234   Thanks farooq 07/17/18 12:08:53 PM
#19233   as always, CASH is a position > Later gang spdpro 07/17/18 10:48:37 AM
#19232   That will be about my exit point also. Duma 07/16/18 03:03:47 PM
#19231   If we break support just below LOD and jaws57 07/16/18 02:42:48 PM
#19230   Jaws has been trading a 30min chart while Duma 07/16/18 12:28:19 PM
#19229   cold sounds real good > too hot here spdpro 07/15/18 03:29:22 PM
#19228   SPD, thanks for map. Have cold one jaws57 07/14/18 04:15:18 PM