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Moderator: Duma Assistants: spdpro
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Last Post: 5/24/2022 5:04:39 PM - Followers: 92 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 2

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Example of the Four Phases that make up a Full Trade Cycle

Embedded charts are no longer allowed, so I will put links to the charts that I trade or follow very closely. Click on the link and it will come up current time in a new tab. Refresh anytime to see current data. (Oct 2019)

SPY-Trend Channels - Daily

SPXL-RSI - Daily

TQQQ-RSI - Daily

SPX-Market Breadth - Daily

NDX-Market Breadth - Daily


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

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Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


#24646   D > let me know if you get spdpro 05/24/22 05:04:39 PM
#24645   NatGas update. I added the bold to the No-Quarter 05/24/22 07:05:03 AM
#24644   FYI, No-Quarter 05/23/22 09:11:42 PM
#24643   I am trying to understand from article why farooq 05/23/22 03:38:16 PM
#24642   Correct. In our case employment is rising. Once farooq 05/23/22 02:23:00 PM
#24641   This morning's NatGas update. This morning got No-Quarter 05/23/22 01:11:27 PM
#24640   Earnings and employment are lagging indicators. First it dotnet 05/23/22 10:56:59 AM
#24639   It is the trading platform that I want. Duma 05/23/22 09:40:24 AM
#24638   I like your idea about ARKK. It No-Quarter 05/22/22 09:57:03 PM
#24637   I tend to agree we are in for No-Quarter 05/22/22 09:35:18 PM
#24636   D > having been on the Beta team spdpro 05/22/22 08:02:59 PM
#24635   I think bottom forming will start soon or Duma 05/22/22 10:09:38 AM
#24634   It is very rare that inflation and recession farooq 05/21/22 10:02:18 PM
#24633   I have started watching Charles Payne of late Duma 05/20/22 05:52:37 PM
#24632   if we close badly jxyzobrien 05/20/22 12:16:04 PM
#24631   Thanks for info...all worries About inflation inflation inflation.. ,war haha11 05/20/22 12:10:28 PM
#24630   something really bad is going jxyzobrien 05/20/22 12:00:55 PM
#24629   KOLD 6.20 W.STOP..to fill upper gap 6.50...ON 60M chart.. haha11 05/20/22 11:57:07 AM
#24628   Im afraid its going to be a hot jaws57 05/20/22 09:33:04 AM
#24627   NatGas update. I added the bold to No-Quarter 05/20/22 08:14:09 AM
#24626   KOLD 30....May fly to fill GAP..5.72 maybe bottom....?. haha11 05/20/22 12:43:11 AM
#24625   The BOIL/KOLD flip/flop chart is suggesting tonight BOIL No-Quarter 05/19/22 07:04:55 PM
#24624   KOLD 5.79...W.STOP. .6.00...? haha11 05/19/22 11:02:01 AM
#24623   The futures ES challanged the recent low overnight jaws57 05/19/22 10:19:57 AM
#24622   The search for a bottom continues... No-Quarter 05/19/22 10:14:22 AM
#24621   Todays NatGas update. The pain continues... No-Quarter 05/19/22 07:15:05 AM
#24620   LUNA Update. I added the bold to No-Quarter 05/18/22 11:05:07 PM
#24619   I have wanted to do this also for Duma 05/18/22 12:29:46 PM
#24618   SPD, Thanks for share, I found the ones jaws57 05/18/22 09:37:32 AM
#24617   Im HODL=Hanging on for dear life! LOL jaws57 05/18/22 09:32:01 AM
#24616   NatGas continues to move against my position... GLTY. No-Quarter 05/18/22 07:23:24 AM
#24615   I will look at all this over this No-Quarter 05/17/22 10:27:57 PM
#24614   try this > spdpro 05/17/22 08:17:14 PM
#24613   NQ > save this > you will need it spdpro 05/17/22 07:36:54 PM
#24612   I am working to create a couple of No-Quarter 05/17/22 04:53:56 PM
#24611   Its been a long time 10yrs? since I jaws57 05/17/22 09:35:25 AM
#24610   This morning's NatGas update. Running the wrong No-Quarter 05/17/22 07:42:09 AM
#24609   NQ > I have a bunch of Tscripts spdpro 05/17/22 01:57:51 AM
#24608   Is anyone here familiar with creating Thinkscripts in No-Quarter 05/16/22 10:40:37 PM
#24607   Not necessary. Thanks for offering though. GLTY No-Quarter 05/16/22 06:42:22 PM
#24606   Send me a referral code if it benefits you. farooq 05/16/22 02:22:47 PM
#24605   Thanks for taking time and sharing it. farooq 05/16/22 02:19:21 PM
#24604   Kucoin - https://www.kucoin.com/ No-Quarter 05/16/22 02:04:03 PM
#24603   I am afraid you are mistaken. LUNA No-Quarter 05/16/22 02:03:13 PM
#24602   LUNA Update this morning from Fortune Mag. No-Quarter 05/16/22 02:00:43 PM
#24601   Mar 17 2022 > spdpro 05/16/22 11:37:41 AM
#24600   What plate form you use to buy and farooq 05/16/22 11:09:01 AM
#24599   Is current price equal to $15000 for your farooq 05/16/22 10:46:11 AM
#24598   Now we got "powerburn", sheesh!. Maybe we have jaws57 05/16/22 08:58:26 AM
#24597   I am considering it a lottery ticket. No-Quarter 05/16/22 07:12:33 AM
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