Home > Boards > Free Zone > User's Groups >

Cycle Trading

RSS Feed
      Hide Sticky   Hide Intro
Moderator: Duma Assistants: spdpro
Search This Board: 
Last Post: 3/2/2021 12:03:00 AM - Followers: 84 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 1

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?


Important Note

All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

The following is a description of each Phase and how I trade each in general. 
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. 

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution or at 2nd support. Go long again if market turns around. 

Example of the Four Phases that make up a Full Trade Cycle

Embedded charts are no longer allowed, so I will put links to the charts that I trade or follow very closely. Click on the link and it will come up current time in a new tab. Refresh anytime to see current data. (Oct 2019)

SPY-Trend Channels - Daily

SPXL-RSI - Daily

TQQQ-RSI - Daily

SPX-Market Breadth - Daily

NDX-Market Breadth - Daily


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

Trading Checklist
1. Risking only a fraction of your capital
2. Trade with the trend
3. Trade from an area of value
4. What is your entry tirgger
5. Where to exit if you are wrong
6. Where to exit if you are right
7. How will you manage the trade
8. Are you following your trade plan

Free trading articles http://www.trading-software-collection.com/Free%20Download/

Block pop-up ads http://www.adfender.com/

Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history

Three X ETF's   http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List


#22529   Market was happy today, let's see if it Duma 03/02/21 12:03:00 AM
#22528   If I recall correctly, you were watching the No-Quarter 03/01/21 11:14:06 PM
#22527   Thanks! No-Quarter 03/01/21 11:11:39 PM
#22526   think it had most to do with the spdpro 03/01/21 05:35:01 PM
#22525   Last Friday was the month-end. Today is No-Quarter 03/01/21 04:22:44 PM
#22524   watching > not yet mode spdpro 03/01/21 04:13:45 PM
#22523   so far 8.39 is my line to watch > spdpro 03/01/21 02:54:45 PM
#22522   another day of this again > spdpro 03/01/21 12:04:30 PM
#22521   same here > too many "haveto's" going on spdpro 03/01/21 09:58:52 AM
#22520   Watching its 60m chart, so it will have jaws57 03/01/21 09:57:11 AM
#22519   I see these kind of articles all the Duma 03/01/21 09:56:58 AM
#22518   back into it's hole > spdpro 03/01/21 09:52:19 AM
#22517   Ive seen/heard different versions of the Great Reset. jaws57 03/01/21 09:25:17 AM
#22516   Maybe you guys know all this already, but No-Quarter 02/28/21 11:00:32 PM
#22515   Her use of cash like stocks was very jaws57 02/28/21 11:52:12 AM
#22514   Another good analysis of the recent Cathie Wood interview. No-Quarter 02/27/21 10:23:29 PM
#22513   I found this explanation of last week helpful. No-Quarter 02/27/21 09:34:27 PM
#22512   for what it is worth > spdpro 02/26/21 02:18:12 PM
#22511   I try to make Friday's my day off, jaws57 02/26/21 11:28:38 AM
#22510   ive been looking at this one on a jaws57 02/26/21 11:26:43 AM
#22509   Same > Later gang > too much to spdpro 02/26/21 10:49:16 AM
#22508   Have a good weekend all, I'm off to Duma 02/26/21 09:34:39 AM
#22507   ARKK peaked on Feb 12 at 25% YTD. Duma 02/26/21 09:01:53 AM
#22506   UVXY time to shine?? No-Quarter 02/25/21 10:32:45 PM
#22505   Thanks, farooq 02/25/21 07:06:27 PM
#22504   here is a chart of "blow up" only spdpro 02/25/21 06:43:06 PM
#22503   XIV not showing in stock charts. farooq 02/25/21 06:33:26 PM
#22502   Yep > The VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short spdpro 02/25/21 06:30:20 PM
#22501   Is that correct symbol? farooq 02/25/21 06:24:19 PM
#22500   Too bad XIV 3X got blown up spdpro 02/25/21 06:08:58 PM
#22499   ARK Innovation fund (ARKK) down 13% for the No-Quarter 02/25/21 03:06:06 PM
#22498   I was positioned wrong from start on it spdpro 02/25/21 01:43:47 PM
#22497   QQQ 311,314,316 several areas of support. Hitting 1st jaws57 02/25/21 12:28:00 PM
#22496   Good trade! jaws57 02/25/21 12:24:11 PM
#22495   11:52:48 SOLD -500 UVXY @8.71 > stop out spdpro 02/25/21 11:54:52 AM
#22494   Got to stop messing around with 60min charts Duma 02/25/21 11:29:47 AM
#22493   yep > ragged day for certain > spdpro 02/25/21 11:16:46 AM
#22492   Im watching still, not getting the signals I want. jaws57 02/25/21 11:11:59 AM
#22491   still hanging out in that uvxy trade > spdpro 02/25/21 11:07:16 AM
#22490   that didnt go well, good thing for stops. jaws57 02/25/21 10:57:30 AM
#22489   I don't blame you. No-Quarter 02/25/21 10:51:41 AM
#22488   I'm out of them all. Duma 02/25/21 10:42:52 AM
#22487   WAG /ES retrace to 3870 area > spdpro 02/25/21 10:19:24 AM
#22486   Our little rally from yday really faded over Duma 02/25/21 10:01:14 AM
#22485   I will check it out. Duma 02/25/21 09:58:23 AM
#22484   He is very good. did you check his dotnet 02/25/21 09:53:26 AM
#22483   The video I saw last week that was Duma 02/25/21 09:42:17 AM
#22482   Yeah, that puppy moves around. It often No-Quarter 02/24/21 11:30:19 PM
#22481   $AM Antero Midstream Corporation is a Delaware corporation SpotOnTrade 02/24/21 10:15:23 PM
#22480   10X leverage bitcoin anyone? LOL! jaws57 02/24/21 08:53:34 PM
Consent Preferences