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I'm all for it too! If it weren't for shorts we'd have be at $14+ IMHO after the DAVD annoucement.
Would love to be wrong here, but this feels more like it has to do with the "low float with short interest" trend sweeping the market right now. Which I'm all for too... but you have to question its sustainability.
I have for years questioned the management and as an industry insider, have an intimate knowledge of their technology and patents and Echoscope is still to this day unparalleled. I also question AMG and she has and has for years had multiple conflicts of interest. She has steadied the ship, but she is a lawyer rather than an entrepreneur and couldn’t sell or market her way out of a paper bag. This company could have and should have exploded by now, but has been held back by selfish interests. The core is sadly stale. They have no ambition, soul or passion.
"She is welcome to dump all of her shares"... except that she ALREADY dumped so many shares during the run-up that there is no longer any seeming incentive to produce. Or even communicate.
And this is coming from me, one of the longest standing bulls, having given every benefit of doubt, for years and years.
She did a hell of a job prepping this company for a massive payoff, but it came at the expense of investors who believed in the story they were selling, which apparently they knew was unsustainable.
No name calling, no disrespect. Just stating the obvious. The disrespect done here, if any, was the way management played its investors. Its not right.
Roger that, good luck in all your endeavors.
I don’t think it’s a hundred bagger. There was a 1/14 reverse split in there a few years ago.
I think they run this company like a small business trying to ensure there is a modest profit so Jimmy can go to basketball camp. They either have no interest in taking the company to the next level or no ability.
I agree on a larger company buying them. Certainly there is a way to monetize what amounts to a mom and pop ice cream shop sitting on top of a billion barrels of oil. Maybe it isn’t quite that good, but the uses for the tech are numerous and they have had a monopoly for years. That monopoly won’t last forever so the clock is ticking.
I am starting to come around to the conclusion that the greatest risk of investment in Coda is opportunity cost at this point, not ‘go to zero’ risk. I think Mgmt is very comfortable with keeping the bottom line in the black and managing through a few crises (COVID, trade spats, 2016 CR and eventual 2017 budget), but I really see little effort to grow the business. I think it could flux between 20% to the upside/ downside over the next few years, but at the end of the day the valuation could stay flat.
The one point that hold me back from actioning these thoughts is the company history; if I’m not mistaken it’s already a hundred bagger for those early penny investors, and perhaps we are just in a period of steady state before another growth spurt. The base is so low for them to grow from that it really wouldn’t take much effort to saturate a few accounts already under management (navy, prime contractors, etc.). I am also dumbfounded that they haven’t received a tender offer at this point and am not sure if I understand why that is the case. The IP alone should be enough for some defense company to pay 80mm to acquire, then spin out the various service/ products business; why won’t these bb + companies pay short money for Coda? Is there something we are missing?
Great summary and some of those mirrored questions I had. Here’s another. Why are we carrying 6 months of revenue in inventory?
You raise a fair point
It may not be her behind our new poster. It might just be that her partner has a mix of excessive loyalty and poor judgement. It’s still an awful look and rhymes with my overall thoughts.
I think I tried one note to AnnMarie in the past and got no response. In any case with my lack of confidence in management, and the gloomy 10k I’m almost out of shares. The only reason I have any is it’s a candidate for a low float pump, and those are all the rage now. There really isn’t any incentive here to reach out.
Thanks for that sinopsis. Excellent imho.
No, but I/we have no proof "She" invented a sock puppet. Sure looks like her partner may have but you can't pin that on her.
Listen, I applaud, appreciate, respect, am open to your opinions, judgement, criticisms. However, I don't work at $CODA, nor have I ever, nor have I been to their work place, nor have met AnnMarie, nor her husband or anyone involved. I'm a shareholder and that means I need to on some level respect and support the team in place until such a time or circumstances that to me deem me to have a voice in opposition and therefore a say in company operations. If and when that time comes, I will not just shout hearsay on a stock board. I will reach out to those in management by other means such as email, blogs, letters and such expressing my concerns.
I hear what you are saying, but two wrongs don't make a right.
Reach out to, annmarie.gayle@codaoctopus.com and voice your concerns to the source and see what transpires. That is progressive and proactive. Spewing here only seems to invite school yard antics.
Best.
Hi all, just finished reading the 10 k, my initial thoughts (more like additional questions) are below in the order of the report;
-Shift in strategy now that 5th and 6th gen have been delivered, shift research dollars to S&M. What does this look like?
-more talk of the success of R&D - why is it a success? instead of ROIC?
-is the company maintaining too large a portfolio of products/ software? Especially in light of staffing shortages in software engineers? Would smaller portfolio lead to more focused co?
-Thermite Octal trials on hold with potential vendors of a large volume nature. Cited ability to customize specs as CA against competitions’ offerings
-the pandemic should be a killer to their whole business, but most evident in the fact that these products need an implementation staff and everyone has to quarantine for 14 days^2 (there and back)
-can they ever get to a point where an implementation staff is not necessary? Does this not give them the ability to scale up faster?
-effects of the sanctions on Chinese firms dinged $1.3mm in revenue. Interestingly, it was the UK government not the US government that blocked the sale. Too bad for the growth runway that exists in China, but with CODA so heavily dependent on keeping their technology secret, could end up being a blessing in disguise five years from now via stolen IP
-as mentioned, starting to see hiring issues in software development, meaning there is most likely some internal turnover(r&d slated to decrease)
-$560k in Davd sales in 2020, would like to understand the unit economics on those figures.
-product sales essentially flat y/y which is encouraging. Services biz down materially, but no surprises
-lower backlog to start the year, curious what that looks like
-who is their $4mm, 10% customer? Bae/Raytheon
-why do they book the $1mm davd gen2 funding as revenue? Should be other income?
-was taken aback how negative the tone was in the MD&A, but the financials honestly weren’t that bad considering. Products flat, margins only 200 bps lower, all services driven. Will make for good comps next year this time.
-easy to forget that 6 years ago, almost all revenue came from O&G services, now it is only 5%. Although on a small scale, excellent pivot
Looking to compare notes with the team so feel free to add/question/rip apart; makes us all better.
All the best,
Pat
For me it does not.
We can disagree on results that's fine
But are you telling me you have confidence in a CEO that would invent a sock puppet account to defend herself on an internet message board, and then destroy the evidence? Because that is what appears to have happened. Does that not raise red flags everywhere?
I wouldn’t call the results piss poor.
But that’s just my take.
I would suggest emailing her with your concerns, thoughts, ideas and what you feel is a lack of transparency. I’m guessing you would get a reply.
Better than behind the iHub curtain where we are all just like the possible insider posting earlier today.
So your issue isn't with the piss poor results, lack of transparency, or that they created a sock puppet account to defend her, and then deleted it all including including our responses when bunny was smart enough to catch the name match.
Your issue is that we might have hurt the feelings of the person who has a fiduciary responsibility to us? That makes sense. She is welcome to dump all of her shares and resign. I'll be happy to pick up the pieces. There is no down side in hurting her bruised ego. Want praise? Suck less.
Still holding with you. The fiscal year ended 10/31, so it included the worst of the Covid period. The 1st Q report ends this month, and that should give a better indication of what is happening in this environment.
The price of oil has rebounded to over $50, so that should help.
That's great. Now the board has insulted the CEO and Chairman and the largest insider share holder and her husband the second largest insider share holder. Between the 2, they hold 4.6million shares.
If it wasn't for AnnMarie Gayle this company would still be on the pinks or defunct. She made it the real deal.
That doesn't mean she is the best person for the CEO position but you have to give credit where credit is due. The Group is still producing and in the black. I'm going to give her the benefit of doubt and say she will come around and replace herself if that is the right course of action for the company.
Easy to sit behind the computer and spew criticisms judgments.
If folks are going to "constructively" criticize, do so with class and respect. Don't hold back but be professional an respectful, it goes a longer way.
Still holding...
I have been saying the stench from Ms Gayle has been the obvious feature of CODA for awhile. This pretty much shuts up any doubters. I had a large position at one time but its small enough to drown in the bathtub now.
Can't really complain I guess. I made a boatload when it was pumped to 20 a share.
No idea how he did it. Bit smelly, that, no?
Yep. I took screen shots, though.
How did AnnMarie's sock puppet pull that off?
You have to be a mod to delete posts as far as I know. I can't delete my own. Still comical. I hope this will shut up her apologists. Low class and desperate move by an incompetent manager. 13d anyone? Seems like a good time for a forced change.
Message and replies gone. I still have screen shots, though.
Bwahahaha
The ceo is so emotionally secure that she sends her partner to defend her on message boards. I refer back to Glassdoor and the employees opinion of management.
We need an activist shareholder to oust the residents of this clown car.
To be fair, Anne Marie hasn't done much work, since selling out for a huge profit during the only period they hyped the stock, and then for all intents and purposes, we never heard from her again. It's almost as if there is no longer any incentive to produce.
Earnings out signature Ann Marie stinker
Backing out a tax benefit it looks like they earned maybe .04 a share. Press release was terse because after all why should they bother to provide any color. Still having export issues to China. There is really nothing I see that is positive in either the 10k or press release although I didn’t read fully through the 10k.
Nice to see you coming around to my way of thinking
I would like to see an activist involved here. If you think of the money they have "invested" in R&D, the broken promises on thermite, their inability to grow revenue meaningfully despite a monopoly position, you have to conclude that management and the board need ousting.
I see no evidence they are working on our behalf. You can't even expect them to file their annual reports on time. It's a crapshoot on whether they do that very basic thing.
Glassdoor isn't wrong about management.
We need some Robinhood'ers / Millenials to take notice here.
Oh wait, that won't work this company actually has products and earns revenue.
Oh snap, did I just say that.... Lol
I'm still waiting for that $11.70 target price "they" said" over a year ago.
As usual no particular reason
I'm expecting another signature Ann Marie stinker which is too bad. A good report would turn this thing into a rocket. My only hope is for significant DAVD sales. Would have been nice if she would have taken a break from distributing her partners shares to tell us what the hell is going on with the DAVD effort and the company. They are to say the least opaque.
I continue to dribble out shares on these little bumps. Probably have somewhere around 15% of my original position. I'll regret it if they pull a rabbit out of their hats.
What crawled up their butt and got them moving today?
Move is odd. If anything with Brexit there seem to be new macro risks, and nothing from the company to suggest we should be buying. It would be nice to think somebody knows something.
Again, curious activity the last couple days.
Or more plausible the numbers suck and he's unethical
As hweb said they shouldn't be selling when the numbers are in the books, and its a terrible look for a director to have zero skin in the game.
Yep pretty sure there's a blackout period from when the quarter ends to when the company report earnings. Insiders should NOT be allowed to sell shares during this time, as they know the numbers. Guess it shouldn't be a surprise that CODA management doesn't understand this.
He only sold 6K shares in mid-november, and he has very few shares left to sell. Perhaps he needed the money for Christmas.
Maybe. I wouldn't mind a pump. You are right its a bit early, but its alarming to see directors dumping all their shares after quarter close.
Please someone pump it. I would happily supply shares.
Maybe a newsletter is getting ready to pump it. Don't think it's earnings anticipation as the Q4 report won't be out til January. Q4 probably a decent quarter, but the company will still be weighed down by covid restrictions. Markets are so insanely frothy...the right PR from CODA could launch it.
Someone is bidding for 27k shares
Bold speculation. It would take quite awhile to get rid of that many. I took him up on the offer and sold a few. A director selling all of his shares ahead of earnings after the quarter has closed doesn't sound great to me.
Earnings anticipation? I said before that I think there is a no trivial chance they post a big number. Do I think they will? Not really. Ann Marie doesn’t know how to grow a business, but it’s not impossible that those davd installs they haven’t bothered to mention juice revenue big time. The flip side of that is the export control issue buried in the last quarterly filing.
Only news today is the CFO selling some shares, which isn't exactly a positive-
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334325/000149315220022533/xslF345X03/ownership.xml
Maybe CODA just riding the wave in this super frothy market. Lots of stocks going up for no reason.