China Hydroelectric Corp. (CHC)

[hebercreeper]

$2.97 take private offer = lame.

Done following here.

[hebercreeper]

Lincang, Yunnan province, August 2012:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/lincang/61475/august-weather/61475?monyr=8/1/2012&view=table

Lincang, Yunnan province, August 2013:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/lincang/61475/august-weather/61475?monyr=8/1/2013&view=table

Simao, Yunnan province, August 2012:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/simao/61413/august-weather/61413?monyr=8/1/2012&view=table

Simao, Yunnan province, August 2013:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/simao/61413/month/61413?view=table

45 dead, 1.6 mln affected in Yunnan floods


http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-08/26/c_132664109.htm

Precipitation in the province is expected to reach between 100 and 150 mm from Sunday to Monday, the NMC forecasted.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2013-08/26/c_132663051.htm

The problem is that only about 35% of MW are based in Yunnan, with the remainder in Fujian & Zhejiang. Tariffs paid for electricity are much lower in Yunnan & the grid is not as effective. Pray for a wet September in Fujian & Zhejiang to salvage the quarter.

Of course, compared to HK & China listed peers, this one is seriously undervalued & some tariff increases in Yunnan are way overdue.

[hebercreeper]

CPI buying remainder of Vicis shares.

Bring on the privatization.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000119312513312638/0001193125-13-312638-index.htm

[hebercreeper]

Weather tracker up and running. Q2 not quite on track with 2012 but seems at or above historical averages in Yunnan, Zhejiang, and Fujian.

This one has been vetted by Geo, survived a proxy battle for control, and trades at huge discount to comparable Asian listed names.

There will come a time when tariffs will increase for Yunnan, grid will be upgraded, and climate change-related patterns will put an end to this drought in a big way.

It is a Dam Fine Asset Play indeed but always the potential to get even finer from a buying standpoint.

[hebercreeper]

Some late Q2 storms may help salvage the quarter.

http://www.best-news.us/news-4759126-Zhejiang-rain-15-reservoirs-over-flood-emergency-response-line-rose-Provincial-Meteorological-Bureau-Class-II.html

Sichuan getting rocked more recently but somehow not a lot making it to Yunnan.

[hebercreeper]

lmao, I just now realized I've had the same message from TDA for almost three months. I tend to ignore their messages, as you can see.

Please be advised that an ADR fee of $233.10 has been charged
to your account based on your holding of CHINA HYDROELECTRIC CORP COM (CHC). This fee was assessed by the administrator of
CHINA HYDROELECTRIC CORP COM to holders as of record date 2/1/2013,
and is passed through to beneficial holders.

[hebercreeper]

Pretty pumped for some storm tracking again this year...wouldn't mind a major swoon ahead of it.

[hebercreeper]

Looks like no major pullback on results...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-hydroelectric-corporation-announces-record-203000865.html

Called the turnaround correctly but didn't play it as well as I could have.

Something to be said for always letting shares ride...this would be 400+% here.

[Huggy Bear]

That's lame.

[realfast95]

CHC - Dear Valued Client,

Please be advised that an ADR fee of $80.00 has been charged
to your account based on your holding of CHINA HYDROELECTRIC CORP COM
(CHC). This fee was assessed by the administrator of
CHINA HYDROELECTRIC CORP COM to holders as of record date 2/1/2013,
and is passed through to beneficial holders.

About ADRs:

- ADRs, also known as American Depositary Shares (ADSs), are
used to trade foreign stocks in the U.S. markets. An ADR
(or ADS) is a negotiable security that represents a receipt
for shares of stock in a non-U.S. corporation, usually from
1 to 10 shares. ADRs are bought and sold in the U.S. securities
markets like stocks.

- An ADR fee is passed through from the ADR administrator to
clients holding an ADR, and is typically assessed annually.
This fee does not originate with TD Ameritrade. Fees generally
range from $0.01 to $0.03 per share.

- This fee may or may not be mentioned in the ADR prospectus,
depending on whether the ADR program itself is sponsored by the
underlying foreign company.

[hebercreeper]

Upon further review, I expect Q4 report may provide a buying opportunity. 10-k may no longer reflect going concern though so anything goes.

Will be looking to buy any swoons here.

[hebercreeper]

Bought big in this one today after reviewing Q4 precip in Zhejiang and Fujian province.

Also worth noting


http://www.hydroworld.com/news/2013/01/23/china-likely-to-reform-hydropower-pricing-scheme-report.html

[hebercreeper]

[hebercreeper]

“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.”

-James Rogers

[BiotechValues]

I'm sure joe covered at the low yesterday...

ROF

[hebercreeper]

boing

[Scandle34]

Crash... Bounce next...

[hebercreeper]

watching closely to establish a position here (again)...

[bigtimetrader]

Yeah, well watch a nice PRC contract snuff all of your criticism.

[joenatural]

Didn't break yesterday's open ? What's that have to do with anything ? You think I expect the stock to fall to zero in one day ? LOL. The company's total junk and headed for bankruptcy IMO. I can wait it out. No one that shorts this stock will be toast .......

"oops. Didn't break yesterday open. I wonder if all shorts today are going to be toast tomorrow."

[rosen62]

oops. Didn't break yesterday open. I wonder if all shorts today are going to be toast tomorrow.

[joenatural]

I went short at $2.73 this morning, as I can only LOL at the recent monster run-up because they sold an asset for $43 million. Well heck, they owe close to $300 million, so they sold the asset so they wouldn't have to immediately close the doors. That's NOT good news folks. This is a Chinese company that is (get this) dependant on rainfall. LOL. Their expected EPS for this year is .09 (LOL), but a negative -.05 for next year, assuming they even make it that long. The stock just saw a massive run upward on nothing good whatsoever other than stupid lemmings buying into the management change forced by large American shareholder who's stuck with a monster loss. Anyways, have a great day and I'm short as of this morning at $2.73

[Huggy Bear]

It was a great call off the bottom based on solid DD.

[joenatural]

Short this P.O.S. at will up here in the nosebleed section. Good grief, the stock has a huge run due to a golden cross and a B.S. Zack's ranking from this morning, meanwhile this company has a mountain of debt and is dependent on rainfall. Ridiculous. Large shareholders stuck big time that are trying their best to get people to buy the stock. Ultimately this company goes bankrupt IMO. Analysts expect the company's EPS to drop from .09 this year to negative -.05 next year. Sure, the company just sold an asset for millions, but they owe far far more than what they'll bring in.

[bigtimetrader]

LOW FLOAT SQUEEZE!!!

[bigtimetrader]

$$$$GREENFINISH$$$$$

[bigtimetrader]

$$$$EASY 50% GAIN HERE!!!!$$$

Low float (40% of O/S) and 40% of those insitution and insider owned.

Golden-Cross
MACD Crossover
Slow-Stoch Crossover


LOOKING GOOD

[Scandle34]

today is a surprise...

[BiotechValues]

Looking like the "insurgents" and management might be ready to make nice?

Interesting news. I didn't add yet but might next week. I see a take private or dual listing in the future here...

CSP

[BiotechValues]

"And there might be a buying spree to gain more shares in public market from both groups."

Yep. That's my belief also.

[hebercreeper]

Quick, someone call John Kuhns and politely inform him that the insurgents' presentation was far more persuasive than the company's letters to shareholders.

Fun having front row tickets to this battle.

[king888]

$CHC - John Kuhns and Catalyst Energy back in 1988
This article from NYTime is referred in the insurgence's presentation

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/03/30/business/a-highflier-s-one-final-gamble.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

It said the share price fell to $3.75 and traded in $9 range when it received a going private proposal from Kuhns at $11.75
But from further due diligence, I found that there was a bidding war between Kuhns and Thomas B. Pickens ( son of T.Boone Pickens)
The first bid was only $10 from Kuhns .
http://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/29/business/company-news-catalyst-energy.html

Pickens placed a bid for $10.75 a share
http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/07/business/company-news-catalyst-gets-bid-by-pickens-s-son.html?src=pm

Catalyst agreed to be acquired by Pickens at $11.25
http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/22/business/company-news-catalyst-agrees-to-be-acquired.html?src=pm

In September 1988, John Kuhn was replaced by Thomas Pickens
http://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/01/business/executive-changes-506788.html

So the $11.75 offer from Kuhns in the NY Time article was not materialized. I doubt that it was just a bluff to get an higher bid from Pickens. Probably,we can expect the same thing in CHC. If Kuhns get what he want ,the insurgence can take the company.
And there might be a buying spree to gain more shares in public market from both groups.

[king888]

$CHC - Presentation from the "insurgence"
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000119312512388432/d409886dex991.htm

[hebercreeper]

200 ma break

[hebercreeper]

This is getting ridiculous...scroll through the PR's in the news feed above for some good laughs. Back and forth, a chess match.

Today's after hours letter to shareholders from $CHC management finally had a bit of meat. Good for a laugh with the references to the "insurgents".


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-hydroelectric-corporation-issues-letter-210100405.html

[tbirdman]

China Hydroelectric Corporation Requests that Shareholders Ignore Proxy Materials Sent by a Minority Shareholder Group

http://en.prnasia.com/story/67567-0.shtml

[hebercreeper]

China Investors May Benefit Long Term:

Buy-Side Players See Five-Year Plan as Strong Investing Theme

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-investors-may-benefit-long-term-2012-09-05?link=MW_story_featstor

Hydro is a major part of the five-year plan.

[hebercreeper]

$CHC industry happenings...

Morgan Stanley, PE Firms Invest $300M in China's Zhaoheng Hydropower

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/09/04/morgan-stanley-pe-firms-invest-300m-in-china-zhaoheng-hydropower/#ixzz25ZJWLjMr

[hebercreeper]

CHC board responds:

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000093041312005060/c70894_ex99-1.htm

[hebercreeper]

Updated letter to board of directors:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000119312512375047/d402753dex992.htm

[hebercreeper]

Major Holders from page 143 of annual report...go directly to the source since none of the financial sites have any of the numbers correct.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000093041312002538/c69449_20-f.htm

Vicis Capital 28.4%
CPI Ballpark 23.9%
Jennison Assoc 12.1%
Prudential 12.1%
Swiss Re Finan 6.2%
Exec/Insiders 2.9%

Share price was hammered in Q2 and early Q3 due to Sustainable Asset Management dumping their load. 1.1 million shares sold in Q2...remaining 465k likely responsible for early July volume.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/chc/institutional-holdings

Nothing like selling out of an illiquid turnaround name at the bottom.

I was a buyer today and will buy weakness tomorrow as Q3 is trending to be much like Q2 & we've yet to see the $45m asset sale announced.

This name went from .75 to 1.25 within a month so I think a pullback was in order.

For those dwelling on the letter to BOD referencing .46 warrants, multiply by 3. Each ADS is three actual shares.

[hebercreeper]

Bolaven is actually trekking north so I doubt these two will hook up, even though Chinese Valentine's Day was this week.

Tembin a bit of a slow mover though & setting records in Taiwan.
We could see some impressive rainfall in Fujian and Yunnan as a result.

Bolaven may impact Zhejian assets a bit, but likely not as much as desired.

$CHC shaping up nicely and should get better now that management may feel some urgency courtesy of the 40+% holders.

[king888]

Ohh , that's bad. I hope my house in Bangkok will not get flooded again this year. Last year, it was about 1-metre flood in my area. Anyway, I got an indirect insurance from a long position in CHC

[hebercreeper]

Isaac ain't got sh*t on me:

[hebercreeper]

Fujiwara possibilities for Fujian & Zhejiang:

In the coming 10 days, the two typhoons will bring torrential rain and gales to Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces and Shanghai, with the maximum precipitation volume reaching 300 millimeters, according to the weather forecast released by weather.com.cn on Friday.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-08/25/content_15705147.htm

[hebercreeper]

Double typhoon weekly whammy part two within 30 days!(?) This Bolaven looks to be something fierce.

Two typhoons to hit coastal areas

http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2012-08/23/content_26313298.htm

[hebercreeper]

[hebercreeper]

New filing, letter to Board of Directors.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000119312512363633/d374538dex992.htm

[hebercreeper]

Typhoon Tembin on its track to hit Fujian at or near Xiamen:

http://www.whatsonxiamen.com/news26771.html

Just a reminder of hydro assets in Fujian:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000093041312002538/c64864xmap.jpg

I always wanted to be a storm chaser...I guess this is the closest I'll get.

[hebercreeper]

Blue Typhoon Warnings Issued in Taiwan:

http://www.cma.gov.cn/2011xwzx/2011xqxxw/2011xzytq/201208/t20120821_182655.html

On that note, I'm reloading shares sold in the 1.20's.

Yes, I took some profits.