China Hydroelectric Corp. (CHC)

[hebercreeper]

correction, what I referred to as Libra is actually Tembin...and Bolaven could be right on it's heels.

Both could impact Fujian and Zhejiang provinces:

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2012/08/21/351635/Typhoon-Tembin.htm

[hebercreeper]

Typhoon Libra on watch...could impact Fujian province in the coming week.

http://www.cma.gov.cn/2011xwzx/2011xqxxw/2011xqxyw/201208/t20120821_182505.html

[Huggy Bear]

Thanks for the clarification. I am aware of the torrential rainfall in the area which of course will lead to slightly higher electric output in the ST as those dams have to draw down water at a higher rate.

But if none of those assets sales happened you were anticipating then regardless of some flood conditions driving higher ST revenue, CHC is in a good position moving forward.

With a return of some semblence of confidence in the big board US listed Chinese stocks it could really fly.

Im watching MY earnings this week as well for indicators, and contemplating getting back in.

Excuse me, MY is set to report Aug 28th.

[hebercreeper]

None...the asset sale I expected to be announced was not. Save that bullet for another day.

Typhoon related rain, on the other hand, that may be one time event but will impact Q3.

[Huggy Bear]

HC - How much of the .14 Q2 GAAP earnings to see as attributable to the one time events, such as selling of assets?

I have not done my DD here properly admitted but seriously thinking about it still being worth the time if earnings are likely to remain above .10 per Q -

But then again even the most bulletproof of the US listed Chinese big boards can get even a 5x P/E valuation in the current environment.

[king888]

Hebercreeper, Thank You for your DD. You are extremely helpful here and a few that I follow to read your idea.

[hebercreeper]

Nice to have you...I was getting tired of talking to myself.

I believe the asset sale I found reported in Chinese media to be the one that you reference from Q1 release.

IR rep would not confirm that as being the site but stated any sale would not be announced until "binding".

[king888]

I bought it today. I expect the surge in share price after Q2 report tomorow. CHC is an easy money here . Trading only at 0.10-0.15x Book value. Almost the same story as WSP expecting that hydro project has much more sustainable demand from government side

From Q1's release. Is this the same sales in the latest Chinese news?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-hydroelectric-corporation-announces-record-203000445.html

The Company has entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding with and received a refundable deposit from a third party in connection with the sale of a certain power project. If the sale is consummated, we expect it will provide estimated net cash proceeds of $45 million, which we believe would be sufficient to meet the Company's liquidity needs described above. The prospective purchaser is presently conducting engineering, legal and financial due diligence. It is anticipated that definitive agreements in connection with the proposed sale may be signed in July 2012.

[hebercreeper]

Tropical Storm Kai-tak on close watch folks...

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78837&src=eorss-nh

The projected storm track showed Kai-tak making landfall in southeastern China between August 16 and 17.

[hebercreeper]

Welcome. Yes, I am the one man wolfpack...an army of one.

I have done plenty of DD on this name, much of which has not been posted on this board. Click on my post history for reference.

I see $CHC as free money...these are tangible assets that are in demand, as evidenced by asset sales that I have linked to. CEO is American and majority ownership is held by non-Chinese as well.

Three more on topic posts and you can be a mod in time for Peter North making an appearance next week...

[scubaguy5]

Are you the only guy on here?

[hebercreeper]

Over 7" of rain so far in parts of Zhejiang for August...


http://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/hangzhou/106832/month/106832?view=table

[hebercreeper]

Kunming cancels water supply cut in different urban areas

http://en.kunming.cn/index/content/2012-08/07/content_3042895.htm

[hebercreeper]

Sept 2011 Investor Presentation:

http://a.eqcdn.com/hcinternational/media/6aa085f62731586d8e98cd798f2fd3b0.pdf

[hebercreeper]

Alstom Building Center In China To Expand Hydro Business

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-11/alstom-building-center-in-china-to-expand-hydro-business.html

[hebercreeper]

"Precipitation is falling on an area 150,000 square meters in size, which means that it is raining everywhere in Zhejiang presently, except in the eye of the storm," said Li Jian.

Flood warnings were placed on 13 rivers in Zhejiang Wednesday, as water in 10 large-scale and 28 medium-scale reservoirs in the province exceeded their banks, according to local water management officials.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/725988.shtml

[hebercreeper]

Is There Anybody Out There?

[hebercreeper]

Haikui upgraded to Typhoon and taking aim at Zhejiang...


http://www.cma.gov.cn/en/WeatherWarnings/ActiveWarnings/201208/t20120807_181140.html

[hebercreeper]

$CHC Q2 Results in mid August. American CEO & company operating in China with a nice read from last fall:

China Provides a Favorable Climate for Small Hydro Investment

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/10/china-provides-a-favorable-climate-for-small-hydro-investment

After reporting record Q1 results in mid June, management confirmed Q2 would be strong as well:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-hydroelectric-corporation-announces-record-203000445.html

Quote:
As of the date of this release, rainfall in the second quarter of 2012 has been well above that of the same period in 2011 and more in line with above average level we experienced in 2010, particularly in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, our higher tariff regions.



After drenching Taiwan, typhoon Saola making landfall today will be right in the heart of 60+% of CHC hydro capacity in Zhejiang and Fujian...Q3 is off to a strong start.

Map of facilities:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000093041312002538/c64864xmap.jpg

You'll recall I recently posted news as reported in Chinese media of the Wangkeng facility sale for $45 million. CHC IR would not confirm this "rumor" but stated any such event would be announced with Q2 results in mid August.

Use chrome browser for translation of the asset sale to Fujian Electric Power:

http://istock.jrj.com.cn/article,000993,4661807.html

Yunnan province is coming out of a three-year drought as reported by China Meteorogical News:

Continuous rainfall alleviates drought in Southwest China

http://www.cma.gov.cn/en/NewsReleases/News/201205/t20120531_174168.html

Tariff increases ahead of the current rainy season will go straight to the bottom line & asset sale alleviates short term liquidity issues. When reviewing chart, consider that the run starting in December was sparked by a much smaller asset sale.

I expect this to be a nice turnaround story for the remainder of the year.

[hebercreeper]

China Provides a Favorable Climate for Small Hydro Investment

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/10/china-provides-a-favorable-climate-for-small-hydro-investment

[hebercreeper]

Typhoon Saola to land on coast of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/724831.shtml

[hebercreeper]

Typhoons Trigger Flood Alerts

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-08/01/content_15636443.htm

Fujian & Zhejiang Provinces

Yunnan getting a mention as well:

Torrential rains in Southwest China's Yunnan province on Tuesday morning left 11 people missing, the provincial authorities said.

[hebercreeper]

Yunnan drought may be coming to an end:

http://weather.yahoo.com/china/yunnan/kunming-2160693/

For perspective on the severity of this 3-year drought:

http://chinabystander.wordpress.com/2012/03/22/new-pictures-of-yunnan-drought/

[hebercreeper]

Investing in China

Marketwatch piece written by CHC CEO John Kuhns

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2011-02-01/commentary/30771610_1_chinese-companies-china-investment-philosophy

[hebercreeper]

CHC: Trading with the China discount but CEO is an American & over 50% ownership by US based hedge funds/PE firms.

http://www.chinahydroelectric.com/web/guest/management-team

[hebercreeper]

Dec 6 asset sale sparked a nice run.

Wangkeng asset sale not yet announced in US is over twice the size.

[hebercreeper]

Map of CHC Hydro facilities:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477156/000093041312002538/c64864xmap.jpg

[stockweiser]

Easy Bounce from here.