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What do you think the value of Northera is? It is hard to calculate, but it is easy to calculate the value of the Co. using the share price.
The share price has already popped a bit since the January announcement....
They will use the share price...I would...
I have a hard time believing that a buyout will have a direct relationship to the stock price. We are not trading at some multiple of earnings. The current company value does not reflect the value of Northera (IMO) - so the idea of an offer based on share price doesn't sit well with me.
The question is - how much is Northera worth? Rather than "how much is Chelsea Therapeutics worth" right now.
Just my opinion!
This is why CEO should have never shown his hand that he wanted to sell NORTHERA or CHTP entirely.
There are buyers out there, but all they have to do is wait and let the stock drift lower before making offer.
Hopefully I am wrong and something is in the works...
Congrats -- you've made about 30% if you shorted at $7?
I'm averaged in at $0.9288/share. Weee! HAHAHA.
Stop losses or bear raid? Hmmm... Guess it's time to add more!
weeeee $chtp to the ground and beyond HAHAHA. just made a ton
Well we now know...absolutely nothing new. Strategic alternatives has been mentioned before, cash position could have been estimated at its current level quite easily. And...what else really matters at this point?
Page 18 & 47 of the 10k were interesting...18 uses a lot of vague language as to not mislead investors (so shorts could try to turn this on longs, but in reality the company must use that pessimistic language to protect themselves legally) but I feel it basically screams for a buyout. They got rid of the whole sales/marketing team last year after the CRL so as we already knew, they aren't prepared to go it alone in the slightest. Page 47 because it says $6M has already been paid this year out of that nice Dec 31st cash amount. Forgot what page number the lawsuit talk was on, but that might be a hinderance for buyout timing (there is an ongoing lawsuit I wasn't aware of tied to the decrease in share price from the CRL last year).
I feel as though at the current price, a positive return on your investment is inevitable. The question is how long you are willing to tie up your capital waiting for that return. If we go anywhere closer to $5, I'm rebalancing my portfolio with a much stronger position in Chelsea. I don't do a lot of "trading" so I'm personally ok with holding and waiting. Maybe some covered calls...but I don't like capping my returns for a measly option premium especially with this potential.
One little thing to keep in mind: what do you do before you sell a portion or a whole company? Trim the fat (reduce staff/expenses/etc). Chelsea was forced to do so last year, hence the reduction in staff and burn rate. They're perfectly set up to be bought...let's just hope the price is right and it's soon!
If anyone is short and has supporting facts, or at least a persuasive argument (even a devil's advocate who meet the aforementioned criteria), I'm all ears.
Good luck boys and girls.
"Plans for a NORTHERA launch are progressing while the company continues to evaluate other strategic alternatives."
like maybe a........ BUYOUT perhaps?!?!?!
all i got from the ER was a bunch of numbers... anyone get something more from this report?
Earning release w/o a CC. Great news.
This is completely out of the norm for this company to not have a CC at earnings release. This can only mean something big is coming. If they were handling the roll out of Northera in-house, they would have had a CC stressing how their increase in cash, strong management, etc etc etc would be able to successfully manage such a task. But, no CC assuring investors has to suggest that this earnings release is peanuts compared to whats soon ahead.
Glad I held!
The suspense is killing me!!! Haha
Etrade is showing that earnings release pushed to 3/17?
someone mentioned it could be released anywhere between March 10-16. Could it mean that they will coincide their ER with a PR? Possibly early next week if that is the case.
trying my patience here, but waiting a week won't kill me... CHTP is hovering in place right now
Man... Still nothing? What happened with the earnings report that was due yesterday? I'm getting a little annoyed now since they haven't released a single thing.
fwiw...I doubt that CHTP will "break the silent treatment" by saying something like..."um, you know, um, we did get FDA approval a couple months ago..."
I chose CHTP & NWBO back in january... ahead on both, but lets just say one far outweighs the other in terms of profit (for myself). Huge nwbo fan, still hoping chelsea decides to stop the silent treatment...
Haha nice wife reference (very true). But yes, I'm still showing today for earnings report. Silence is killing everyone I'm sure, it's been how long now and not a single word?? Either way, the only reason I can think of is that they are in negotiations. But still, talk about respect and concern for shareholders...
i hope something happens soon, i want to move on already. I'm focused on MNKD and NWBO now. I'd like to move these funds into these as they have much higher PPS potential. NWBO has been killing it recently.
CHTP is driving me insane, it's like a wife that gives you the silent treatment. just say something already, i dont care what it is at this point!!
Well, if they are to report today, it looks like it'll be after hours. If I see a bear raid of some sort I'll be sure to buy in for a flip. I still believe a buyout is in the works.
Sell me some cheap Sept calls...I'll take $6-8 strike, your choice.
i don't personally buddy. i am short. #rundown baby
We all want this stock to take off ever since the FDA approval. I look at it this way, unless you are averaged higher than $5.68 you have lost nothing. My average is $5.00 for 20k, so I am ahead on paper $13,600. I am looking for a bigger profit than that but I'll take anything that's more than I put in. Many analysts are still saying $8-$10 which is what I want it to be, but we need patience to wait until we find out what's going on.
Holding up well, so far....
Rome wasn't built in a day brother
This stock is sort of bumming me out
I've never seen anything like it. Though I sold, I still believe they are working something out. Either that, or like you said, don't want to put themselves in a position to answer questions that could impact the PPS +/-. Originally I showed 3/6 as ER but now see 3/10. I understand any frustration that I'm sure people have.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say news by March 11th IMO...
Still no official word from them either...
Letting my optimism get the best of me, we could be looking at a situation where the management doesn't want to put itself in a position to answer analyst questions because of "active discussions" with potential suitors. Too bad I don't have a shred of evidence to back that up!
Looks like earnings has been moved to 3/10/14.
Of course the hurdle everyone was waiting for was the FDA approval. Hence the reason the stock was trading at $2-4/share over the last few months. The risk was there, price reflected it.
Approval came, along with an increase in the price to about $6/share. Pulled down a bit by traders who anticipated the news and were looking to flip and probably a little too much hype/expectation of what the price should be(IMO). It happens, whatever. Now the price sits here...weighing the risk of dilution prior to a full understanding of how we reach the ~$300-400M in sales.
We will likely hit another speed bump after the sales/marketing direction is provided. This speed bump will price in the risk of not reaching those expected sales. If we exceed at earnings time a year from now, the price will jump to reflect that value of beating expectations.
....and the story goes on.
I'm not a fan of pricing in hype and unrealistic expectations...then you end up with something like AAPL that can't do anything right no matter how good you are. Or DNDN for a more appropriate example. There isn't much room left for big jumps here (partnership/buyout are obvious choices)...soon this might be a company like any other that is public, scraping by from quarter to quarter.
I'm here for the partnership/buyout opportunity - and if that doesn't happen, I might stick around for sales. I'm in over a year now, so I suppose why not wait a little longer. A run up like PPHM today would be nice though...that's my other major holding.
I am a bit concerned about it sitting at $5.62 - $5.72 because this leads me to believe that the hurdle everyone was waiting for was not necessarily FDA approval.
The hurdle is if CHTP could bring the NORTHERA to market and how they will go about doing that.
Lets hope they have thier ducks in a row and disclose something during earnings.
It is not uncommon for a stock to have a lower trading volume the day before earnings are announced. In addition, the lack of any news from the company other than the general announcement associated with the FDA and its drug approval has dampened interest in the stock. Essentially nobody knows what is going on. Any word from the company will move this stock.
I am referring to total daily volume. We may not even make it above 2 mill shares traded like the past few days.
It is interesting how we have been sitting in a holding pattern lately. I personally wouldn't use the words "trending lower" when we've been largely within 10 cents for a week now. Someone likes the $5.72 mark and others seem to like $5.62. Guess it's a "trader's paradise" for the time being.
I think the slightest bit of guidance from the company is a catalyst for 30% either +/-
2.5 million dollar buy went thru at close yesterday and I've been seeing several 100k and up buys every now and then, especially at the close. I still believe there's something happening behind the scenes.
Trending lower with low volume...
I hate to say this as I still own a small position, but there may be nothing going on behind the scenes.
If a partnership or buyout was in the works we would see more volume and some large buys every now and then...
Guess we should know something when earnings are announced... GLTA.
Longer the silence, more confident I become.
I am no expert, but logic tells me that if a company was going to take a drug to market themselves they would have held the most positive CC you have ever heard the day after approval, trying to assure everyone they have the capacity to take on such a challenge.
Without this, buyout or partnership are the only options that make sense. I am surprised with every day without news that the PPS isn't creeping up toward the low end of the analyst price targets.
goodluck DMC, I just sold half my CHTP position and will let the rest ride thru the weekend
Haha I have zero doubts that this will see double digits as I still think a buyout is in the works. I just had to make a decision by today whether to hold for that, or buy into MNKD at its current PPS and gamble on the upside. But yes, I follow you so I will see you on other boards.
$CHTP
Best of luck King - I've seen you on some other boards I watch, so we'll meet again.
Be sure to stop back by and tell us all hello when we get to the $10 mark ;)
Broke even and sold my position. It's been fun guys this past month or so. Good luck to all!
DMC
Absolutely. April will be huge. $30 billion dollar market, the upside is incredible. BUT I shall stay on topic here about CHTP haha. Hoping to see you over on that board soon though Jack. Gonna be one heck of a Spring season.
MNKD was my next move too, they have a big catalyst in April.
MNKD significantly more come April. My plan was to flip here and just move over, but of course, things are happening slower than expected. Don't really want to have to buy in too much higher than where the PPS is currently. Decisions decisions.
The only questions to answer are:
1. Which do you expect to increase more?
2. When do you expect that increase?
If you have answers or expectations, the decision should already be made!
So tempted to sell my position here and add it all to my MNKD position. Trying to practice patience here assuming the silence is a good sign that we have something in the works but geez is it hard.
Still pre-revenue -- I suppose the big things to take away will be burn rate and the answers to analyst questions regarding the marketing/sale strategy.
Of course, that is if management doesn't offer up that information willingly...which I think is expected at this point.
either way... I am not counting on an earnings report. Would they provide some insight on the near-term strategy during the report?
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Chelsea Therapeutics International (NASDAQ: CHTP)
Chelsea Therapeutics International, Ltd., a development stage pharmaceutical company, focuses to acquire and develop products for the treatment of various human diseases. The company develops prescription products for multiple autoimmune disorders, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, and cancer. It also develops therapeutic agent for the treatment of neurogenic orthostatic hypotension and related conditions, and diseases. In addition, the company develops platform technologies that consist of a portfolio of molecules for the treatment of various autoimmune/inflammatory diseases, and I-3D portfolio, a dihydroorotate dehydrogenase inhibiting compound. Chelsea Therapeutics' product in development includes CH-1504, an orally available molecule for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, psoriatic arthritis, and cancer. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Chelsea has a balanced portfolio of novel therapeutic agents that address disease states that correspond to significant unmet medical need. Investigational product candidates in the Chelsea pipeline include droxidopa, which is being evaluated for its potential use in indications which we believe norepinephrine may play a role, as well as a library of metabolically inert antifolate medications, including two clinical-stage products, CH-4051 and CH-1504, for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases.
Behind these late and mid-stage products is a complementary portfolio of dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) inhibitors, known as I-3D, which may have applications in treating autoimmune diseases and transplant rejection.
Chelsea News
News
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The Pipeline
www.chelseatherapeutics.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CHTP
Monday, 09/28/2009 - Schedule 13G - http://www.irconnect.com/mc/irc/secfilings.mc?cmd=disp&id=6816624&type=HTML
Tuesday, 09/29/2009 - Schedule 13D - http://www.irconnect.com/mc/irc/secfilings.mc?cmd=disp&id=6818700&type=HTML
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