Of course the hurdle everyone was waiting for was the FDA approval. Hence the reason the stock was trading at $2-4/share over the last few months. The risk was there, price reflected it.
Approval came, along with an increase in the price to about $6/share. Pulled down a bit by traders who anticipated the news and were looking to flip and probably a little too much hype/expectation of what the price should be(IMO). It happens, whatever. Now the price sits here...weighing the risk of dilution prior to a full understanding of how we reach the ~$300-400M in sales.
We will likely hit another speed bump after the sales/marketing direction is provided. This speed bump will price in the risk of not reaching those expected sales. If we exceed at earnings time a year from now, the price will jump to reflect that value of beating expectations.
....and the story goes on.
I'm not a fan of pricing in hype and unrealistic expectations...then you end up with something like AAPL that can't do anything right no matter how good you are. Or DNDN for a more appropriate example. There isn't much room left for big jumps here (partnership/buyout are obvious choices)...soon this might be a company like any other that is public, scraping by from quarter to quarter.
I'm here for the partnership/buyout opportunity - and if that doesn't happen, I might stick around for sales. I'm in over a year now, so I suppose why not wait a little longer. A run up like PPHM today would be nice though...that's my other major holding.
