Better Traders

[desertcynlite]

The dollar is moving up/gold down. Still no big volume in the other indexes. Sell signal in volatility, but that could be a head fake.

[FAT STAX]

Sure thing my good friend. See you soon :)

[desertcynlite]

Thanks for letting me know. I'll post if I see a strong reversal starting.

The dollar has double bottomed, but has not found a base yet. RVX follows the dollar. The Nasdaq is trying to rollover, but still hasn't given me a solid sign. You are already watching gold.

I have an appointment to go to as well, but not until after the close.

[FAT STAX]

I'll be around sparingly, if it all the rest of the afternoon as I have personal business to attend to.

[FAT STAX]

I cut my first batch of QQQ calls from this morning way too soon. They nearly tripled. I'm comfy scaling in but need to increase my comfort level scaling out into strength. The profits just came so fast I just instinctively snatched it. It's a bad habit though that frequently leads me to leave waaaaaay to much $ on the table.

Ingrained habits are hard to break but I'm aware of it, and working on it, but I clearly need to do a much better job scaling out in pieces, especially when the trend was obviously super strong as it was right after I bought the QQQ calls.

[FAT STAX]

In QQQ $353 6/2 C @ $1.54

[FAT STAX]

In GLD $183.50 6/2 P @ .68

[FAT STAX]

I like what I see in gold so far. I'm adding some super speculative GLD puts that expire tomorrow on the next pop.

[desertcynlite]

It's a good entry point. Everything is connected though so, we have to wait for the dollar, the indexes, volatility and gold to roll over. I got a pop of volume on the /NQ, but that's if for now. It's not enough. I'm hoping we see a big reversal down and everything doesn't go sideways from here. The Nasdaq is in the oversold section on the hourly chart. When I see that that volume come in on the /GC, I'll post it.

[FAT STAX]

Yea 1 bearish RAMBO on 1 TF is one thing but multiple on MTF definitely substantially increases my conviction. Still though, as you astutely noted it can very easily explode over $2K. The longer it hovers near it, the greater the risk of that.

That's the risk/reward that needs to be carefully measured. We'll see but I think I finally may have gotten a decent entry as you did also.

I hope I didn't just jinx us both! lol!

[desertcynlite]

I'm back in too. I think the damage is done, but not 100%. Keeping finger on the button. It looks like the Nasdaq and Russell are done climbing. It also looks like the volatility charts have bottomed. Waiting to see the volume sell off on /GC though.

[FAT STAX]

Couldn't resist! So many bearish RAMBOs on MTF @ the key $2K level.

Added again GLD $183 6/16 P @ $1.63 avg.

[FAT STAX]

Gold 4.5K Tick:

Multiple bearish RAMBOs on MTF

[FAT STAX]

Last add GLD $183 6/16 P, $1.70 avg.

[FAT STAX]

Cut GLD $183 6/9 P @ $1.05 from $1.34

[FAT STAX]

Yea I need to get better at that also. Recognizing it as an issue is a key first step.

[desertcynlite]

Don't worry about it! I just sold my GDXD and it was painful. I should have sold them earlier. I think it will bottom and bounce, but I already took a big loss so, I'm going to wait for it. Holding on to losing positions too long is one of my failures. I am getting better, but I really need to improve.

I keep thinking of what I have read that the market goes for maximum pain. I think that means that it often will over reach where we think it should reverse. I am trying to recalibrate my thinking to that.

[FAT STAX]

$1.77 avg. GLD $183 6/16 P

[FAT STAX]

Gold 1K Tick:

Amateur driven new highs highlighted by the yellow bars including the twin bearish RAMBOs. I was a little early and entered before they printed.

[FAT STAX]

In GLD $183 6/16 P @ $1.82. Same thing I did yesterday. Taking advantage of the better entry to snag less risky puts, that expire a week later, 6/16.

[FAT STAX]

So I have both YEXT 6/16 & 7/21 C.

[FAT STAX]

In YEXT $10 7/21 C @ .40

[FAT STAX]

I'll try to post as close to real time as possible but please remember I'm not a robot. I'm managing multiple positions AND posting charts.

That is why I posted my positions & what I'm looking for this morning. I hate posting my trades so late after the fact but it's going to keep happening. I will continue to try my best to share my game plan before I enter trades, again like I did this morning so posting my trades late almost becomes moot.

[FAT STAX]

In EDIT $10 6/16 C @ .30

[FAT STAX]

NQ 500 Tick:

Pros bought the breakout over vwap (purple line).

[FAT STAX]

Out QQQ $350 6/2 C $1.70 from $1.19

[FAT STAX]

In QQQ $350 6/2 C @ $1.19

[FAT STAX]

Stopped out of both BOIL & NG sorry for the late notification. I just reloaded BOIL $2.34.

[FAT STAX]

Couldn't be much closer! Literally 1 blue bar @ the top on a small TF is keeping me in. I still might cut it. $1995 is now a major pivot. Same plan, if it gets there again and I don't see pro bars or bearish RAMBOs, I cut.

[FAT STAX]

Gold 250 Tick:

One blue bar @ the top then the triple sell signal when a pro long trailing stop level @ the 100 ema (yellow line) broke. That was enough to keep me in for now.

[desertcynlite]

The 15 minute chart has an RSI negative divergence and looks like a reversal pattern. That was close. Hopefully, it will play out.

[FAT STAX]

Gold 1.5K Tick:

Finger is on the cut on the trigger. We'll see!

[desertcynlite]

In the same position. I'm watching it closely.

[FAT STAX]

If yesterday's high breaks in gold w/o blue bars or bearish RAMBOs and I'll concede defeat and move on.

[FAT STAX]

Cut other GLD P positions, no need for 3 of them:

GLD $182.50 6/2 P .58 from .96 & GLD $182 6/9 P .93 from $1.15

[FAT STAX]

In GLD $183 6/9 P $1.34

[FAT STAX]

Notable Current Positions:

1) AXSM $75 6/16 C @ $3 - biotech with nice technicals
2) BOIL $2.56 avg.
3) NG_F continuous contract @ $2.26, I think I forgot to post this. Sorry about that!
4) GLD $182.50 6/2 P @ .96
5) GLD $182 6/9 P @ $1.15
6) JFIN $7.50 7/21 C @ .15 - Chinese financial services play with good fundamentals & great technicals
7) VKTX $25 7/21 C @ $1.30 avg. - biotech with a potential blockbuster weight loss drug in the pipeline, again with awesome technicals. it's gapping up big this morning on light volume
8) WW $7.50 6/16 C @ .55 - This trade is a total dud and if I'll be lucky if I can salvage my cost basis
9) YEXT $10 6/16 C @ .25 - cloud computing play with nice technicals

A couple more on my shopping list:

EDIT. I've been trading it and want to reload calls. I'm eyeing the speculative $10 6/16 calls.
Lastly, YOU, that's the symbol lol! A company that opeartes a security platform which enables access to predictable entry lanes in airport security checkpoints. I like their business model and technicals. I'm eyeing the $24.80 6/16 calls.

[FAT STAX]

NG Hourly:

This is what I've been waiting for, a block on blue bars on a more substantial TF:

This is the mirror image of the set up 5/18: pro driven exhaustion (green dot) in a short-term top. Now pro driven exhaustion (red dot) @ the lows.

[desertcynlite]

Just wrote a long post in reply and it got deleted. So, this is the short version.

Here is the website on the long term analysis on gold.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-04-10/-Technical-analysis-is-key-to-understanding-what-s-going-on-with-gold-Northstar-and-Badcharts.html

I still think gold is a short right now and was backtesting today. Hopefully, I am correct because I’m still holding. If the market rallies on the debt ceiling news then I will be wrong footed. Typically, gold moves with the stock market. It tends to peak and bottom at the same times.

[FAT STAX]

So much to do so little time. I missed this killer NVDA short set up. I need to catalogue the proven set ups the better indis produce over and over again.

The power of the one below is astounding.

I named this one bullish RAMBO pattern disrespect. I marked when it materialized today with a timestamped white vertical line. About 45 minutes after open new daily lows printed after the pre-market bullish RAMBO. That was the heads up the bearish trend was very strong. NVDA weekly puts were intraday multi-baggers after that signal.

Also, I don't mention this much but when the short signal appeared about 45 minutes after open today there was a 30 (red line)/10 (white line) bearish ema crossover under vwap (purple line). That made the NVDA bullish RAMBO pattern disrespect short set up exponentially stronger.

]

[FAT STAX]

I'm working on sticking to a no more than a handful of positions that need to be actively managed at a time. I used to have too many positions that required babysitting, leading often times to poor execution despite my technical thesis being correct.

Quality over quantity. Everybody's different but for me, I've been at this long enough to know that when my number of actively managed positions gets into the double digits, the quality of my execution slips. Just a personal lesson learned from my experience I thought might be helpful to share.

Now for instance, I'm locked in on the gold short opportunity like a laser. We'll see but I think it could really turn into something special.

[FAT STAX]

Just to clarify my gameplan for GLD puts. The ones that expire the soonest are always the riskiest so instead of adding to it, I used the opportunity for a better entry to open a new position in the less speculative puts that expire a week later, 6/9.

[FAT STAX]

Yes with a close eye on the key pivots I noted.

[FAT STAX]

Key levels around the pro activity are always consequential pivots. Topside, it's the hod @ $1993.10 & BSW notes a big support level @ $1976.40.

[desertcynlite]

That makes sense. You are assuming they are shorting it then since they didn't buy it at the lower levels? I just saw you bought puts so, I think I just answered my own question. LOL

EDIT: Volatility peaked early this morning and then has been dropping all day. Until it starts going up, it will hamper out short positions.

[FAT STAX]

Gold 1K Tick:

I've noted this before but worth repeating the Better Indis are easy to overcomplicate. But I don't think they could be more simple than this:

Pros have been active all day @ a technically consequential level. Yesterday they had plenty of chances to buy under $1970, even under $1960, instead they have been active in the $1980s all day.

That's what it comes down to, where are the pros active, in dips or rips.

[desertcynlite]

The Nasdaq has still not given up the ghost, but it is close. That was some back testing on the 15 minute and hourly charts. It has been really a tough trade for some time, but it taught me to stop looking at my indicators so much.

Gold has been trending up since yesterday. I just figured out what was going on with it. This is the 233 tick chart and the golden triangle line is the 200 ema. If you look close in the far right, you will see the light dotted line from Mobi. It broke below that trend line. Next stop is to drop below the 200 ema and then we should have a movement down. I think the 9 ema needs to drop below the 200 ema to confirm the trend reversal. Price dropping below it won't do the trick. I almost sold my GDXD, but I'm going to hold them for now.

[FAT STAX]

In GLD $182 6/9 P @ $1.15

[FAT STAX]

AXSM 125 Tick:

Threatening a key short-term resistance break. All after pro activity near the lows 5/24 which was followed by bullish RAMBO triplets 5/25.

[FAT STAX]

Well that's pointless. They don't show as bold until it's clicked on.