Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[north40000]

55,000 here in 2 accounts. Retail must have more than your estimate.

[djohn]

I would guess 200-300,000 shares are retail.

.005 of one percent.

How many people where at last Oct ASM?

answer one

[djohn]

"stand up.for Retail"

News Flash!!!

There is no retail!!

I would guess .005 of one percent is retail

[tech0200]

Anybody have any idea how many shares are owned by retail. If IIs own about 120% some of which are owned by two or maybe more IIs, we just don't know how many shares, how many shares could be left for retail? Are we somehow being squeezed out instead of the shorts?

[Bluerinse]

That's interesting there's nothing relevant to what's gone on with this company that the last few months other then pablum... how about stand up.for Retail and stop the gross manipulation of our shares or at least call it out

[Bluerinse]

Sleepy Nic won't act on that

[swg_tdr]

endo, easy to stop. Co only needs to call into registrar for an honest share count, and you'll see what real price it runs up to.

Right now, warfare against retail by II. IMO.

[djohn]

Is this manipulation? Yes!

Because different shares did not trade just same shares changed hands.
The hand changers manipulated the price down $10 per share.
The real question is? To who's benefit are the hand changers playing their little game for? All IMO of course! We will find out if a low ball buyout offer comes.

[EndoTarget]

12 million shares were traded since last 20+ close.

Those were traded with an inexistant float.

So we went from 20-21+ to 11-12 the last 6 weeks.

We are standing at 120% of OS owned by II...

How 12,000,000 shares can be traded with an illiquid stock?

Easy.

Broker A sells to Broker B sells to Broker C sells to Broker D sell to Broker E sells to Broker ... sells to Broker AA sells to Broker AB sells to Broker AZ sells to Broker BA who then sells to Broker A and the cycle repeat.

Broker or MM as you wish.

10,000 shares sold 1,200 time gives 12,000,000

Is this manipulation?

[djohn]

We all know what's going on at Avid. (hint check the webpage) If there was something that he need to update he would. It's pretty simple

[Bluerinse]

It's called a corporate update

[djohn]

Doing What? What's something?

[westjtter]

OK, lets not get too negative just yet!

RBC(a very conservative house) still has an outperform rating on our stock with a $32 price target. In addition, they have us on their highest conviction small cap growth recommendation list which comes out quarterly!

So analysts are not always correct, but to be part of this list of 21 small cap stocks under $5 Bil in market cap is very impressive!

Yes Nick is laying low in Tustin but that does not mean he is not working very hard to build maximum share price value and continue to expand Avid growth. I believe there is continued expansion coming for Avid but in an orderly fashion so as not to upset the earnings, revenue, and cash flow numbers that were projected.....which I believe we will once again handily beat!!!

Yes the share price has been a point of frustration but as we all know, we are in a very difficult market. We are close to our CC and that I believe will again give our share price a burst higher even if just to remind the market that though we are a small cap, we are not in any need for funding....even with our expansion plans we are going to continue to be cash flow positive.....our product line is basically recession proof(regardless of how high interest rates go)....there continues to be a high bar to entry for additional competitors....and we are on a solid growth and profit trajectory.

Yes that all adds up to a very desirable take out candidate....and yes at one point I believe this will happen, but I think at much higher share price numbers than what some other posters have thrown out there.

I do not believe $20 per share would fly even in such a poor market. The institutional holders of this stock also know that this bear market will end at one point, and when it does, those companies that have survived with solid growth will really shine.....so why sell Avid and buy what?????? Better to hold for more promising days ahead!!!

So in my opinion, nothing under $24 would fly.

As for our share price....yes it can be moved around very easy because of the tight float, but again in my opinion, it does not mean much! There is some forced selling and some aggressive accumulation happening.....before making any kind of a move in or out of this stock(especially out) I would wait for the upcoming financials and CC...this will tell the tale going forward!!

Will we close red or green today...well again I do not believe it matters much but I say we will probably close in the red...however it seems we have found sort of a trading range.....we get taken down to the lower $11 range and then rally back up to the mid to upper $12 range!

What will it take for a break out or a break down??? We will have to wait for the CC to find out!

[stockaxe]

It doesn't matter. Just because there's an offer doesn't mean the Board has to accept it and take it to shareholders.

[Bluerinse]

Doing something would be a good start, desirable high growth companies don't typically drop 65% ... particularly when compared to the market

[djohn]

I think there will be offer for $15-$17. That values the company right around $1 billion.
I also think we close green today.

[djohn]

Please fill us in on exactly what he should do?

Shopping lists are being filled out.

I guess it's Nicks fault for developing a very desired high growth company at is worth buying.

[Cubflyer1946]

Which is exactly why retail will get screwed by this company, AS ALWAYS!

[EndoTarget]

You are a II
Buyout offer @13 do you accept? NO
Buyout offer @18 do you accept? YES
Buyout offer @23 do you accept? SURE
Buyout offer @27 do you accept? WITHOUTH HESITATION
Buyout offer @30 do you accept? DREAMING

You are a retail

Buyout offer @13 do you accept? no
Buyout offer @18 do you accept? no
Buyout offer @23 do you accept? no
Buyout offer @27 do you accept? maybe
Buyout offer @30 do you accept? Probably

[Cubflyer1946]

Nic is probably helping to facilitate the low takeover IMO. That is why management is so silent! $20 buyout is a pipe dream, probably more like low teens if it happens.

Longs will be screwed as always with TCLN/PPHM/CDMO! Total POS!

[jbainseky]

Unless??? Go ahead and say it.

FFTT

JBAIN

[Bluerinse]

Meanwhile Nic is asleep at the switch doing nothing to stop it . Oh well guess he's happy to collect is generous Comp package and wait for the inevitable 20 take out

[EndoTarget]

30 million shares and more than 60 million shares were sold and bought in the 30's and in the 20's and now every II is sitting on a 12ish stock?

[EndoTarget]

Don't take it personnally but this is absurd.

Do the math.

No one can accumulate since we are already with 120% of outstanding share in II hands.

You may only have massive naked shorting that is so illegal so it doesn't make any sens.

Unless...

[Cubflyer1946]

I think that's a strong possibility given recent price action. The buyout will be nowhere near the highs of the past year! Those who bought in the $20s and $30s will be sorely disappointed!

[jbainseky]

Don't think we can make that assessment until an offer is put on the table. Think it is obvious someone is accumulating.

FFTT
JBAIN

[djohn]

Any doubt that CDMO stock price is being manipulated by strong hands and will be bought out for far less than it's true value?

[Preciouslife1]

https://www.catalent.com/catalent-news/catalent-to-invest-350-million-in-integrated-biologics-drug-substance-and-drug-product-manufacturing-at-bloomington-indiana-facility/

[Protector]

Nasdaq announces CDMO over 100% Inst. Inv.

In this blood week where the Nasdaq Composite just didn't break through its 52-week low, CDMO closed 14 cent up from previous weeks close.
ElSid18's post about CDMO closing above 12,52$ in such a market blood week was good forward intuition :)
source: Nasdaq Composite Graph

But wait, there is more!

The Fintel Institutional Investor percentages, which are much more up to date than Nasdaq's periodic reports on the subject, have been questioned. On this board some wondered if those numbers could be wrong given that having 120% of only 100% of issued shares sounds a little strange, which it is.

Fintel reports 120,20% (at the moment of writing - it's update on the fly during the market week as soon as IIs report).
Source Fintel: CDMO 120,20% Inst. Inv.

While Nasdaq reported CDMO Inst. Inv. in the 99%, it now for the first time reports a number higher than 100%.
source : Nasdaq CDMO 100,33% Inst Inv.

Remember that NASDAQ performs FINRA compensation by using the overnight lending numbers for short positions (numbers that must be MANDATORY reported by the brokers within 5 min after a short position was opened or closed by someone including proof of lending).

But wait there is more :)

I can explain the Fintel percentages. I did before, so you all know that when someone shorts and an II buys these shares then these shares are LONG at the buyer versus a SHORT at the seller. That (buying) II can then again lend shares based on those 'pseudo long' shares, etc....the basis of what I called the elastic system. This explodes at some moment, I think we can all understand at least that.

We have currently somewhere near 12 Milj short shares and that is the DOUBLE of the reported number of short shares by Nasdaq.
source Nasdaq CDMO Short Interest

The about 6Million shorts shares is 10%, while the 12Mil according Fintel's 120% is 20% of the outstanding CDMO shares.

Then, how can Nasdaq report 100,33% Inst. Inv. ? Well that is ONLY possible in case of NAKED OVERNIGHT SHORTING, something that is FORBIDDEN. Naked shorting is opening a short position without making a lending deal.

How so? Well in case of naked shorting no lending contract is made and hence no Finra reporting is done. When Nasdaq calculates the Inst. Inv. % it therefore compensates with a WRONG lending number.

This should, and probably had, a red flag raised at either the SEC or NASDAQ. NASDAQ can NEVER end up with a number above 100%, only Fintel (and alikes) can because they don't have real-time access to Finra short selling and hence cannot compensate. Good for us because that allows us to know the number of real shorts and the number and whereabouts of the 'pseudo long' shares (which is clearly with the institutional inv.).

And as I posted before, the IIs don't act on internet articles and fake tam-tam, neither do they sell easily if they see good long term value. And long term value, incl. dividend potential, is what CDMO offers. As we all saw, the II% did not go down during our 50% cut during the elastic stretch. They need the shares and the sell price will only matter in years if the stock doesn't yield what they expected anymore.

Think also that all of us have CDMO shares, so even 100% would have been totally wrong because we are no institutional investors and neither are the CDMO employees and some traders that have stock on the shelf.

So actually the problem is MUCH bigger than just 20% over 100%. But there is no data, neither any formula, with which we can calculate the amount of shares in circulation. Fake articles like Inst. Inv. don't like CDMO anymore are only attempts to attract new, less informed, shorters and buy their short shares to close positions of the smarter shorters.

But in the end, the ape will be sitting on someone's shoulder, and it is not on the LONG shoulders. We have our shares and we don't write lending contracts. So we will never be involved in any drama, IIs that lend might partially because when they terminate the contract, the broker may not be able to return the lended shares on behave of the shorter. And then the puppets start dancing because they will need the shares of REAL longs! And knowing what was paid for these shares up to 34$, it isn't going to be cheap to get them.

AIMO

[Preciouslife1]

https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=CDMO

[Preciouslife1]

http://shortvolumes.com/?t=CDMO

[ElSid18]

Are we hanging tough or what?????? Turning green as we speak,, GLTA..!!

P.S.: At $12.52, we would be "unched" with a terrible market week...

[Protector]

EndoTarget, you have beaten me on this one :)

I was about to post: See you at 4,50$ :)

And nobody posted Markets down about 1%, CDMO up about 8%.

Normally, someone posts this kind of message to remind us when CDMO goes down and Nasdaq goes up.

Are we all becoming sloppy on this board? :)

AIMO

[EndoTarget]

See you at 4... o'clock.

[djohn]

Those who invested in Avid Bioservices (NASDAQ:CDMO) three years ago are up 258%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/those-invested-avid-bioservices-nasdaq-164316699.html

Here's to you Cub fly. This is right up your alley.

[djohn]

It popped up a few months ago to $3.50 and some change but fell back down. Hope it's real this time. If they receive some good news on lenz might help Avid a bit or resolve their dispute easier.

Avid is trading differently today also

[pandb5298]

Looks like somethings up over at HGEN. Been up the last three days, with today in a breakout. Not sure if it’s pending data news, insider buying or just people buying on the run.

[Protector]

eastcoastguy, I'd second that assessment.

AIMO

[ElSid18]

This bear market mat have a ways to go yet, but I am detecting some strong
resilience in our bio sector....The XBI is stubbornly refusing to go to new lows, and the NASDAQ, which has been hit the hardest in this downturn, is looking better
as well....................let's not forget that the bio sector started to slide rapidly
before the rest of the market decline...we may be ahead of the curve in the bull
reversal..................hopefully................................glta...

[westjtter]

Yes good point, and I totally agree....at the same time we don't want Nick to miss on any of his projections. Even blue chip companies like Target, Amazon, Cisco(and I could go on) get slammed for missing on revenues or profits.

Now in my mind, we have already been slammed a lot harder than these stalwarts of the index, so even if there is a minor glitch(which I do not believe there to be) hopefully the bulk of the downside is in!

And just think, with really solid numbers matching or beating projections we might just buck the market trend and start heading higher!?

What I really don't want is being set up for a buy out at our current low valuation....even with a 30% to 50% valuation above current price, this would still represent quite a sting!!!

[eastcoastguy]

I don't think WS thinks our numbers are amiss. The whole market has been inflated and the air is coming out of it. That's how bear markets go. Eventually markets revert to the mean. CDMO at a P/E over 82 is taking it on the chin like all the high PE stocks. The good news is CDMO reports GAAP earnings which are real profits as opposed to non-GAAP earnings like much of the tech world. That's why the biotech and story stocks have been creamed. CDMO will reduce their PE by increasing earnings. In looking at the 3year/weekly chart CDMO is sitting on very solid support right above the 200wma. I could see a dip below it but not much. The world has a lot of problems but it will always need what Avid produces!

hang in everyone,
eastcoastguy

[westjtter]

Stock market sentiment is a cruel master!!!! It seems we are not going to get any firm direction which way this stock goes until our upcoming financials and CC.

The market is already, or has already treated us like something is amiss with our numbers, and that the future is very cloudy(We are in the baby with the bathwater crowd)!

What Nick has to do is confirm guidance with an upward tilt if possible.....show increase in growth, margin, backlog and profits.....confirm expansion plans are on track and on budget.....detail and confirm when earnings from expansion will begin to accrue to the bottom line.

And of course make it very clear that we have strong cash flow to fund any future expansion plans or options that come our way and make it crystal clear that we will not require any financing at all in the foreseeable future.

That is all! He does all of this and we will be looking much better by the end of the year!!!

[vinmantoo]

see you at $4!

I would love to get such a bargain price based on ZERO news as I would be loading but it isn't going to happen!!

[cheynew]

I see Avid advertising for a senior business development officer for the east coast. The message I responded to is an appointment in 2020. Possibly this is an added position, not a replacement?

https://avidbio.applicantpro.com/jobs/2334561.html

Also a key accounts rep open

https://avidbio.applicantpro.com/jobs/2331878.html

[Protector]

Cubflyer1946 :)

[Cubflyer1946]

Poor leadership and poor communication, see you at $4!

[westjtter]

The usual doubling of volume at the close...interesting!!!

[westjtter]

After the huge fall in share price that we took over the last several months, I would have expected a little bigger bounce higher on market green days but it seems that the gains are difficult to consolidate.

Now to be fair, we get very little shareholder support from Tustin in between CC's, but in this kind of a market, it may not have made much of a difference?

The market wants to see strong growth and strong profits with increased guidance going forward.......if Nick delivers all of this we should get a big bounce that has some legs.

[north40000]

TDA estimates that date as 6/27/2022. Closer to end of qtr?

[4OurRetirement]

Estimating 3weeks Until Next EarningsReport: https://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks/cdmo glta, eom.