OK, lets not get too negative just yet!
RBC(a very conservative house) still has an outperform rating on our stock with a $32 price target. In addition, they have us on their highest conviction small cap growth recommendation list which comes out quarterly!
So analysts are not always correct, but to be part of this list of 21 small cap stocks under $5 Bil in market cap is very impressive!
Yes Nick is laying low in Tustin but that does not mean he is not working very hard to build maximum share price value and continue to expand Avid growth. I believe there is continued expansion coming for Avid but in an orderly fashion so as not to upset the earnings, revenue, and cash flow numbers that were projected.....which I believe we will once again handily beat!!!
Yes the share price has been a point of frustration but as we all know, we are in a very difficult market. We are close to our CC and that I believe will again give our share price a burst higher even if just to remind the market that though we are a small cap, we are not in any need for funding....even with our expansion plans we are going to continue to be cash flow positive.....our product line is basically recession proof(regardless of how high interest rates go)....there continues to be a high bar to entry for additional competitors....and we are on a solid growth and profit trajectory.
Yes that all adds up to a very desirable take out candidate....and yes at one point I believe this will happen, but I think at much higher share price numbers than what some other posters have thrown out there.
I do not believe $20 per share would fly even in such a poor market. The institutional holders of this stock also know that this bear market will end at one point, and when it does, those companies that have survived with solid growth will really shine.....so why sell Avid and buy what?????? Better to hold for more promising days ahead!!!
So in my opinion, nothing under $24 would fly.
As for our share price....yes it can be moved around very easy because of the tight float, but again in my opinion, it does not mean much! There is some forced selling and some aggressive accumulation happening.....before making any kind of a move in or out of this stock(especially out) I would wait for the upcoming financials and CC...this will tell the tale going forward!!
Will we close red or green today...well again I do not believe it matters much but I say we will probably close in the red...however it seems we have found sort of a trading range.....we get taken down to the lower $11 range and then rally back up to the mid to upper $12 range!
What will it take for a break out or a break down??? We will have to wait for the CC to find out!
