Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

Nasdaq announces CDMO over 100% Inst. Inv.

In this blood week where the Nasdaq Composite just didn't break through its 52-week low, CDMO closed 14 cent up from previous weeks close.
ElSid18's post about CDMO closing above 12,52$ in such a market blood week was good forward intuition :)
source: Nasdaq Composite Graph

But wait, there is more!

The Fintel Institutional Investor percentages, which are much more up to date than Nasdaq's periodic reports on the subject, have been questioned. On this board some wondered if those numbers could be wrong given that having 120% of only 100% of issued shares sounds a little strange, which it is.

Fintel reports 120,20% (at the moment of writing - it's update on the fly during the market week as soon as IIs report).
Source Fintel: CDMO 120,20% Inst. Inv.

While Nasdaq reported CDMO Inst. Inv. in the 99%, it now for the first time reports a number higher than 100%.
source : Nasdaq CDMO 100,33% Inst Inv.

Remember that NASDAQ performs FINRA compensation by using the overnight lending numbers for short positions (numbers that must be MANDATORY reported by the brokers within 5 min after a short position was opened or closed by someone including proof of lending).

But wait there is more :)

I can explain the Fintel percentages. I did before, so you all know that when someone shorts and an II buys these shares then these shares are LONG at the buyer versus a SHORT at the seller. That (buying) II can then again lend shares based on those 'pseudo long' shares, etc....the basis of what I called the elastic system. This explodes at some moment, I think we can all understand at least that.

We have currently somewhere near 12 Milj short shares and that is the DOUBLE of the reported number of short shares by Nasdaq.
source Nasdaq CDMO Short Interest

The about 6Million shorts shares is 10%, while the 12Mil according Fintel's 120% is 20% of the outstanding CDMO shares.

Then, how can Nasdaq report 100,33% Inst. Inv. ? Well that is ONLY possible in case of NAKED OVERNIGHT SHORTING, something that is FORBIDDEN. Naked shorting is opening a short position without making a lending deal.

How so? Well in case of naked shorting no lending contract is made and hence no Finra reporting is done. When Nasdaq calculates the Inst. Inv. % it therefore compensates with a WRONG lending number.

This should, and probably had, a red flag raised at either the SEC or NASDAQ. NASDAQ can NEVER end up with a number above 100%, only Fintel (and alikes) can because they don't have real-time access to Finra short selling and hence cannot compensate. Good for us because that allows us to know the number of real shorts and the number and whereabouts of the 'pseudo long' shares (which is clearly with the institutional inv.).

And as I posted before, the IIs don't act on internet articles and fake tam-tam, neither do they sell easily if they see good long term value. And long term value, incl. dividend potential, is what CDMO offers. As we all saw, the II% did not go down during our 50% cut during the elastic stretch. They need the shares and the sell price will only matter in years if the stock doesn't yield what they expected anymore.

Think also that all of us have CDMO shares, so even 100% would have been totally wrong because we are no institutional investors and neither are the CDMO employees and some traders that have stock on the shelf.

So actually the problem is MUCH bigger than just 20% over 100%. But there is no data, neither any formula, with which we can calculate the amount of shares in circulation. Fake articles like Inst. Inv. don't like CDMO anymore are only attempts to attract new, less informed, shorters and buy their short shares to close positions of the smarter shorters.

But in the end, the ape will be sitting on someone's shoulder, and it is not on the LONG shoulders. We have our shares and we don't write lending contracts. So we will never be involved in any drama, IIs that lend might partially because when they terminate the contract, the broker may not be able to return the lended shares on behave of the shorter. And then the puppets start dancing because they will need the shares of REAL longs! And knowing what was paid for these shares up to 34$, it isn't going to be cheap to get them.

AIMO