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Sort of interesting that Debbie claims her posts are positive!!!
If she ever says she is depressed I hope someone calls 911
Thanks for the pat on his back, Deb.
Have to presume or at least hope that something happens on the lawsuit front in no longer than a year. Three years for the mid-teens is not really that enticing considering other opportunities. Surely management will see that what they are doing is not working (but I have thought that before with other companies and that didn't pan out so maybe a little mislaid optimism there), and get cracking on a different plan.
On a positive note. Under Peters superb quality management he has saved shareholders from having to claim capital gains on their tax returns.
Look at the bright side we are at 23% of value that we were just a few short months ago.
Dang I miss all the posters that praised Peter and said they wouldn't sell for under 60.00 a share.
I will be elated to get out in the teens if we ever get back there. Maybe 2-3 more years.
Remember Peter said he was here for those who needed the drug and shareholder value and his 1.3million petty cash check.
If he meant that he would have taken the BO offer, it had to be at least 34.00 where the stock was.
But like some here he was probably just greedy.
Yep but she’s authorized to prescribe most drugs used by Kidney disease patients.
Since some of the staff were out with Covid … she was calling in the scripts from home this weekend.
Busy time for Valtessa ( for high serum potassium) this weekend. Patients ending up in the ER . ER staff calling her for a consult
Kiwi
Zzaatt, she’s not a Dr., but rather a PA..
Benny. Nope. I don’t care if U buy KZR or not …. it’s high risk and speculative.
I just find it interesting to read comments of those who invest in a drug CO with little knowledge of the patients, competing drugs in development or the complexity of getting affordable insurance coverage once the drug is approved.
U all just seem certain some Big Pharma is going to bail U out
Good luck with that
Kiwi
Jess I’m not short AUPH
Re profit. AUPH can drastically cut the price they charge for Lupkynis…. Just as Amgen did for Repatha
They could cut their profit per script in half and probably double or more their sales …. Thus actually make some $ for you shareholders
That’s probably what’s going to happen eventually.
Co is currently burning thru it’s cash on hand with poor sales … largely due to their own greed .
Kiwi
Jess, of course he's doing it for profit. He obviously holds a position in KZR and wants others to buy that stock after selling here. He thinks that by trying to discourage the longs by repeating, ad nauseum. his argument about the price of Lupkynis that he will get some to sell and buy into his company's inferior drug. He has no idea of what it would take to convince those of us who have been through much tougher times with Ariad to sell a company with a great drug (albeit with terrible management). Most of us are here for as long as it takes but he has every right to continue the same argument every day no matter how pointless it is.
Geez, your dad is totally exempted from the 10% and he’s not black nor Hispanic and he’s over 44? I hope it doesn’t happen to him but sickness knows no boundaries. This medicine gives or prolongs life if not save it and when you’re undermining it because of the cost, you’re on the side of suffering. I hope you’re not doing it for the sake of profit.
Z. Re your comment
Ok. Good luck with that
Kiwi
For your Dad ?
U do know that 90 % of those that develop LN are women between the ages of 15 and 44 …. Often black or Hispanic
Kiwi
Z. The problem is with AUPH’s pricing and the insurers demanding $20,000 plus annual copay from the patients.
U should look at the history of Repatha ( a PCSK9 for lowering very high LDL cholesterol)
Amgen first wanted $12,000’a year for it
Insurers resisted coverage or demanded very high co pays
Amgen couldn’t generate sales
After a couple of years Amgen cut the annual price to around $4,500 . Insurers started covering with an annual patient co pay of around $1,400
My wife might prescribe the med
Doesn’t mean the insurers will make it affordable to the patient.
Script numbers for Lupkynis are very low
Those that do get it may be because of some emergency protocol demonstrating rapid loss of kidney function and high risk of ESRD ( dialysis) …. requiring insurers to cover . That’s just my guess
Most patients with early stage LN tolerate the current SOC with generics quite well ...with the exception of steroids ( if required )
Patients ..mostly young women 20-40 ..hate the steroids . Weight gain and mood swings
Kiwi
Could easily live with the high 20’s.
The fuds may want Benlysta for his mom or dad or kids because it is cheaper than Lupy.
Now that P(i)G has filled his greedy little hands with options there is nothing keeping him selling to a BP for less than the company is worth except the settlement of the suit. He was hired to get the company sold and has no desire to gia. Expecting the settlement soon and a buyout shortly thereafter. I now see high 20's or low 30's as realistic buyout which is somewhat less than I had hoped for years ago.
Agree that Aurinia cannot nor will they ever be able themselves to get the max potential from Lupkynis. It would take a BP.
Unfortunately, there are a lot - a real lot - more small companies than BP. So a bit if a crapshoot whether a deal materializes. And that is assuming that current management isn’t pigheaded about valuation or their desire to hang on in a GIA mode. As some of us have seen with other small bios.
Benny, you couldn’t have said it any better.
Benny. Ha re auto correct on my phone
Re my better half …. Worked at NIH , Yale Grad / kidney disease research .
She will tell U that Lupkynis is a great fast acting drug for high risk LN patients with rapidly declining eGFR …. But because of its cost … it’s limited to that small segment of the LN population.
So now U know
Good luck
Kiwi
The only thing keeping Lupkynis from being more widely prescribed is a failure by this small company to get the drug properly marketed. That wont be a problem once the company is sold to a BP with the necessary resources to realize the potential that this first in class drug has always had.
Just fyi, eminent is not the same as imminent. If you want to convince investors on this board to switch to your inferior company perhaps you should have your well educated better half proof read your messages.
Benny. Post # 20 on the KZR board probably answers most of your questions re the trials
Lupkynis is an expensive drug
Nephrologist ( my wife is a Nephrology PA ) are only prescribing it to their most at risk patients …. Those where LN is causing a rapid decline in the eGFR … especially if their eGFR is below 40
Of course I’m sure U know what happens when eGFR drops below 20 …. least of which is a discussion with your Nephrologist about fistula’s
Lupkynis is an expensive niche drug that works fast
It’ll never be widely prescribed despite what U may hope for
Kiwi
RMB. Yes EU approval should be eminent.
Will they sell much Lupkynis there …. Nope …. For all the reasons you probably know now … eg German reimbursement guidelines etc
Good luck
Kiwi
Kiwi, I am going on the idea that unlike some companies (wink wink Amarin) that these jokers will figure out that settling the patent cases is best. Thinking this should go to the low to mid teens. Not shooting for the moon. Correct me if wrong but I believe EU approval is right behind the next door.
Obviously you are hoping to persuade the longs here to switch to KZR. It isn't going to happen as KZR's drug is years behind Auph and in any event the trials have revealed that it is clearly inferior compared to Lupkynis. We understand your motivation in posting here but it is a waste of your time. Once the suit with Sun is settled Auph's sp will go back to the low teens. Soon thereafter the buyout rumours will propel the price back to low 20's and finally a BP will buy the company in the 30's. There is no doubt that this is the most likely scenario and the smart money and institutional investors are increasing their holdings as we speak. The sellers now are retailers new to biotech investing or too lazy to have done the dd necessary to understand the prospects for success here. You have no chance of converting most of us here but keep trying if it satisfies your need to think you're helping your investment in KZR.
RMB. Don’t know what U see in this Co
From what I can find , script data is horrible and Co is burning thru about $35m a Qt of their cash on hand
Kiwi
Newbie, re John (trading cyclist):
Ditto what Benny said- John doesn't seem to be real active; not sure if he's on Twitter.
https://stocktwits.com/TradingCyclist
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profile.aspx?user=458710
Hope he's doing well- always liked that guy.
Cosa sounds like you may have done like me. Used some of my MYOV profits to jump back in.
Agree. They have a stronghold on politics, doctors, and insurance companies. As soon as this is in their hands it becomes a blockbuster drug that is covered by all insurance companies.
We just need to weather this storm. The revenue is increasing. Tutes are buying. CEO has a lot of shares, 900k? Not out of his pocket, but the man is going to get paid. We will get paid when he cashes in.
Good luck bro!
You can call me a conspiracy theorist, but I always feel Big Pharma is in the background mucking up the crystal clear water for a plethora of reasons.
Voclosporin Meets 48-Week Remission Endpoints, Achieving Highest Complete Remission Rate of Any Global Lupus Nephritis Study," Dated Mar. 1, 2017
Highest of any Global LN Study. And it is an Oral drug. Think about that...
The science has not changed. Time will correct share price.
Added more this morning. Hopefully it will all be worth it one day!
The blog is still there, but nobody posts on it anymore…
https://theauphians.blogspot.com/2017/05/welcome-to-auphians.html?m=1
I see that recently he occasionally posts on the Auph site on stocktwits. He was among the most ardent supporters of Auph when he had his blog. I think he became disillusioned with Auph but now his posts are positive again.
Moose, I just unearthed an old laptop and Chrome automatically restored my old pages and one of them was The Auphians. Trading Cyclist was a regular poster. Any idea where he went?
Aurinia approaching break even point?
https://mobile.twitter.com/IamLordDragon/status/1559558274848112641/photo/1
This article is a year old, but interesting
As GSK, Aurinia heat up the lupus nephritis category, analyst gauges doctors' first impressions
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/as-gsk-and-aurinia-heat-up-lupus-nephritis-category-analyst-gauges-doctors-first
Historic short interest:
You can go to this link to check short interest in a stock:
http://nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortInterest
Publication schedule is here:
http://nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortIntPubSch
Settlement Date/Short Interest/Percent Change/
Average Daily Share Volume/Days to Cover
07/29/2022 13,675,809 (1.18) 3,367,737 4.06
07/15/2022 13,838,504 (2.96) 2,342,608 5.91
06/30/2022 14,260,527 48.44 3,910,557 3.65
06/15/2022 9,606,886 (6.53) 2,591,410 3.71
05/31/2022 10,278,425 7.49 1,668,015 6.16
05/13/2022 9,561,983 (8.38) 3,162,173 3.02
04/29/2022 10,436,884 2.93 1,664,511 6.27
04/14/2022 10,139,732 13.92 1,428,701 7.10
03/31/2022 8,900,935 (0.06) 1,777,317 5.01
03/15/2022 8,906,217 (8.90) 4,852,257 1.84
02/28/2022 9,775,871 (10.84) 5,959,038 1.64
02/15/2022 10,964,029 15.78 2,035,457 5.39
01/31/2022 9,469,493 (18.17) 3,580,175 2.64
01/14/2022 11,571,479 9.18 2,919,533 3.96
12/31/2021 10,599,011 (7.67) 2,792,448 3.80
12/15/2021 11,479,971 26.20 5,086,040 2.26
11/30/2021 9,096,752 (14.72) 5,896,190 1.54
11/15/2021 10,666,710 (12.22) 4,122,764 2.59
10/29/2021 12,151,345 (29.05) 6,684,815 1.82
10/15/2021 17,127,175 (6.05) 3,097,986 5.53
09/30/2021 18,229,866 (2.36) 4,221,961 4.32
09/15/2021 18,671,190 7.02 4,203,268 4.44
08/31/2021 17,447,029 (0.88) 4,008,312 4.35
08/13/2021 17,601,175 4.39 4,780,658 3.68
"We're back on track". Thought you said we were heading for two. Can't have it both ways gf.
From a poster in ST…
“Will the POP decision be the key to strike a fatal blow to the granted IPR institution by PTAB and reverse the course of this process?
We shall see….After all, there ARE precedents….Here is one example…??????????”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ1163eXwAECm8f?format=jpg&name=large
We’re back on track…..—..—..—
Option expiry next week. We going over $9 maybe close to $10.
Here is Ed and Justin's record/rating over the last 12 months:
Ed Arce
H.C. Wainwright
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #1,215 out of 7,991 Analysts on TipRanks (#2,134 out of 21,404 overall experts)
Success Rate 38%
148 out of 388 Profitable Transactions
Average Return 7.80%
Average return per transaction
Justin Kim
Oppenheimer
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #700 out of 7,991 Analysts on TipRanks (#1,140 out of 21,404 overall experts)
Success Rate 54%
49 out of 90 Profitable Transactions
Average Return 18.50%
Average return per transaction
Splitting the difference (26+13 x .5) would bring AUPH to $19.50, which would be pretty good considering all the ongoing headwinds, etc.
It's nice to see the positive sentiment of both analysts, BUT also, it's interesting that the difference in their expectations is one hundred percent. This is not an exact science!!!!
I'm inclined to go with the more optimistic one, and depending on the time frame, I'm even more optimistic. Lupkynis IS after all a "blockbuster" drug.
HC Wainwright & Co. analyst Ed Arce maintains Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $30 to $26.
Tuesday, 9 Aug 2022, 6:32am ET Benzinga News
Oppenheimer analyst Justin Kim maintains Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $15 to $13.
Monday, 8 Aug 2022, 5:50am ET Benzinga News
It’s over before it even starts. Sun P has been had by ambulance chasers. PG will be steadfast in his March towards the promise land. Tell your friend to compare this patent suit with the amrn suit…jmo.
Candidate & Indication | Development Stage | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Market | |
VOCLOSPORINLupus Nephritis (LN) | Preclinical Phase complete | Phase 1 Phase complete | Phase 2 Phase in progress | Phase 3 Phase not started | Market Phase not started |
Aurinia is committed to working in areas of high unmet medical need and is poised to deliver the first approved therapy in the U.S. and Europe for the treatment of lupus nephritis, or LN.
Voclosporin, an investigational drug, is a novel and potentially best-in-class calcineurin inhibitor (“CNI”) with clinical data in over 2,000 patients across indications. Voclosporin is an immunosuppressant, with a synergistic and dual mechanism of action that has the potential to improve near- and long-term outcomes in lupus nephritis (LN) when added to standard of care mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). It has been granted “fast track status” by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA).
Voclosporin has the potential to become a best in class medication and the first approved treatment for LN in the U.S. and Europe, effectively altering the current treatment paradigm for the disease.
Our clinical data suggests that adding voclosporin to the current SoC of MMF for the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) will yield superior results to using the standard of care alone.
Additionally, voclosporin may prove to be an ideal therapy for lupus nephritis due to advantages such as:
In clinical trials, Voclosporin has been shown to be especially effective in the presence of low dose steroids with rapid reduction of LN inflammatory markers and overall improved renal stability.
The list of potential product benefits includes:
LN Critical Need | Voclosporin (based on AURA Results) | |
---|---|---|
Control of Active Disease | ||
Rapid Disease Control | ||
Lower Steroid Burden | ||
Impact on Extra-renal disease | ||
Convenient Treatment Regimen |
In previous studies, over 2000 patients have been treated with Voclosporin with no abnormal or unexpected SAE’s
Efficacy of calcineurin inhibition has already been established. Voclosporin has a well-characterized safety profile (over 2,000 patient exposures across multiple years) across indications.
No new safety signals were observed with the use of Voclosporin in LN patients; Voclosporin was well-tolerated and renal function remained stable in clinical studies. The overall safety profile is consistent with other immunosuppressive drugs.
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