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I think you are lowballing the target price with approval. Again the USFDA is gonna be last in line to approve - they just suck so bad at their mission - they are in it for the fees and job offers to approve things, they really don't give a rats azz if something could help people. its all about the process of fleecing small pharma.
But hey, you and Whala know more about the nuts and bolts of this as I'm just a hopeful investor.
We might have a little delay on approval if government gets shutdown. I think it's too early for buyout, might be worth more to grow organically if Xphozah is approved and becomes SOC for serum phosphorus. As revenue increases we could see $10 - $12+ in 2024 and 2025.
Cosa my understanding is that there are 2 parts and in total may take up to 6 mths
First ...pricing negotiation with the insurers
Second Nephrologists being comfortable enough with the clinical data to start using Xphozah . The second part usually involves the head of the dept attending a Kidney conference where ARDX would be presenting . Doing a deep dive into the data at a symposium there with ARDX scientists etc
This was my experience with Valtessa for hyperkalemia anyway. Wife wasn't using it even tho it was approved . She had to wait until the top Nephrologists in her Dept attended a Kidney conference symposium on the drug . When they came back an OK to prescribe directive went out ...it was like a light being turned on.
Valtessa was developed by Relapsa and bt out by Vifor for $1.53B . Vifor already had a sales / marketing structure in the cardio-renal space .
Vifor îs also a possible buyer of the Xphozah part of ARDX .
How broad the label is will be key
Approval in Japan is scheduled for today I believe . I think they have already sold the rights there
Kiwi
How long does it take for insurance/medicare to start covering new drugs? A lot cheaper than VOC lol
The cost for Ibsrela oral tablet 50 mg is around $1,801 for a supply of 60 tablets, depending on the pharmacy you visit.
I agree but I think the labelling is the risk ...combo with existing binders , or as mono therapy ...preferably approved as both .
I expect it to be approved for combo therapy at least but insurers may set up PA's ( prior authorizations ) requiring the nephrologist to certify the patient had failed on the existing binders ...before providing reimbursement .
Kiwi
I don't think pricing would be a risk as it would have to be comparable to Ibsrela. And those scripts are on a steady incline.
Thanks, you always make very good points with your informed opinions.
I really can't complain since I have shares starting at .61, and have recovered most of my investments on it.
I don't think so .
My wife ...Nephrology PA treating kidney dialysis patients every day in the clinic wants to try this drug as soon as it's OK's by her Dept.
Her patients hate the current phosphate binders .
Adherence is very poor . High serum phosphate levels are a real concern. Few of her patients every get their levels to goal.
While Xphanoh ( or however U spell it ) is not a miracle drug and has limited ability to lower serum phosphate ...it will offer benefit to those patients that can not control their levels ...especially if they are complaining of constipation .
X ( I'm abbreviating ) creates loose stool at best ( diarrhea at worst ) ...so those constipated on the current binders want it .
The risks
The label might be limited ...only used as a combo not solo for instance
Pricing may be unrealistic.
However IMHO this drug will be approved in some form
Closest I can think of is the high serum potassium binder ( serum K ) ...Valtessa now on the market
Both Co's developing the serum K drugs were bt out ( I had positions in both )
ARDX is a prime buyout candidate ...at least their X portion
Above is information / opinion only . Not investment advice
Kiwi
Could I have been wrong holding as long as I have?
Starting to lose faith here.
ARDX...ONLY 845,000 SHORT....820,000 COVER....4 MILLION VOLUME...THE COIL IS GETTING TIGHT!!!
ARDX..ONLY 1 M SHORT YESTERDAY...1 MILLION COVER....
SHORTS PUSHED HER DOWN WITH 1.3 M AND COVERED 5 M
The volatility has certainly increased - looking for a breakout and run
ARDX...READY FOR 5.07
ARDX...massive short cover taking place here....get ready to rumble
Yes I actually do. What is happening now has nothing to do with management or their failures, it is all about the upcoming decision by the FDA.
Management still sucks, let's just hope the approval actually happens.
I have begun selling tiny amounts over $4 just to make sure I walk away with gains no matter what happens. I have positions in 8 family accounts.
Do you still think this? $ARDX
Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded
@ardelyx
to “overweight” from “neutral” and doubled its price target to $10 from $5, citing an upcoming PDUFA date of Oct. 17 for flagship drug, Xphozah, and higher sales estimates for Xphozah $ARDX
-----------------
Louise Chen upgrade I think ...so take with a grain / cup of salt
JMO
Kiwi
https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2023/08/21/grabar-law-office-investigates-claims-on-behalf-of-shareholders-of-ardelyx-inc
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Grabar Law Office Investigates Claims on Behalf of Shareholders of Ardelyx Inc. (ARDX)
ARDX | 9 minutes ago
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania--(Newsfile Corp. - August 21, 2023) - A securities class action complaint alleges that Ardelyx Inc. (NASDAQ: ARDX), via certain of its officers, made materially false and misleading statements regarding tenapanor and the likelihood that it would be approved by the FDA, which led investors to suffer significant losses.
Specifically, it is alleged that on or about June 30, 2020, Ardelyx submitted a New Drug Application ("NDA") to the FDA to obtain approval to sell and market tenapanor for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in adult CKD patients on dialysis. Because Defendants considered tenapanor their leading product candidate, the fate of Ardelyx's tenapanor NDA - i.e., whether the FDA would approve or reject it - was integral to the valuation and future success of Ardelyx securities.
Although Defendants repeatedly assured the market that the FDA's approval was all but guaranteed because the FDA had already seen some of the data and because the Company's meetings with the FDA were going well, in fact as early as March 2020 the FDA had raised substantial concerns that Ardelyx's clinical trial data had not shown a sufficiently quantifiable clinical benefit of administering tenapanor to treat hyperphosphatemia in adult CKD patients on dialysis. Then, on July 19, 2021, the Company announced that the FDA had rejected the tenapanor NDA for the exact reasons the FDA outlined in the March 2020 meeting.
Current Ardelyx shareholders who have held Ardelyx shares since on or before March 6, 2020, can seek corporate reforms, the return of funds spent defending litigation back to the company, and a court approved incentive award, at no cost to them.
If you would like to learn more about this matter, you are encouraged to contact us at jgrabar@grabarlaw.com, visit https://grabarlaw.com/the-latest/ardelyx-shareholder-investigation/, or call 267-507-6085.
Cosa. IMHO it will definitely be approved for use in combo with the existing phosphate binders ( Sevelemar etc ) ...as a solo application ...probably .
Re uptake
My info on this drug is mainly about its use in kidney dialysis patients .
The decision on when to start using new drugs is a very top down decision at my wife's Dept.
The head of the dept usually attends a conference where the Co is presenting and does a deep dive into all aspects on the new drug ......before directing the rest of the dept on its use.
This was the case at least with the hyperkalemia drug Valtessa .
Valtessa was FDA approved after the P 3 trials etc ......but my wife wasn't prescribing it .
I asked why not . She said the head of the dept hasn't ok'd it yet.
Several months go by and finally the top team in her Nephrology Dept attend a kidney conference where the Co ( RLYP I think ...since bt out ) had a major presentation.
On return the Head of Dept said ...OK identify those who may benefit using this drug ( Valtessa ) and start prescribing .
It literally was like a light had been switched on .
I expect it to be used as a combo in those patients that complain of constipation first . Transiting thru the first week -10 days of loose stool /some diarrhea will be difficult for some
Pricing will be key .
Hopefully ARDX makes the drug affordable
Kiwi
If approved, I'd be really interested in a follow up from you. I'm sure the growth will be slow in the beginning as Neph and Rheum's will monitor what their peers are doing and the outcomes. Good or bad the word will spread quickly amongst them. I just hope this drug helps improve the quality of life for these patients.
Cosa My wife has patients on the current phosphate binders ...Sevelamer being the one she prescribes the most .
Patients hate them . Compliance is abysmal .
She wants to try XPHOZAH ( Tenapour ) any way she can .
Theres a transition phase.
She is likely to try it with those dialysis patients that complain of constipation first ....mixed in with Sevelamer . IE add XPHOZAH while decreasing the Sevelamer ...or at least making up for the Sevelamer they don't take .
It will be a transition
They will not try and shift everyone all at once onto XPHOZAH .
Approving as a mono therapy would be ideal ...but when approved ( and I expect it to be approved ) ..it will certainly be used in combo with the current binders
JMO
Kiwi
2 months out from FDA decision. Hoping mono therapy gets approved also.
$ARDX - Reports Q2 '23 Financial Results and Provides'23 IBSRELA Net Sales Revenue Guidance
Net sales revenue of $18.3 million, a 61% quarter-over-quarter growth compared to $11.4 million of net sales revenue reported in the Q1 '23
👆Up 7% / Current Price $4.10
$ARDX - 👆Up 7.8% Pre-Market/ Current Price $4.16
Reports Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results and Provides 2023 IBSRELA Net Sales Revenue Guidance
$ARDX "Ardelyx Announces Acceptance of New Drug Application for Tenapanor for Hyperphosphatemia in China - Acceptance of NDA Submission triggers as $2 million milestone payment to Ardelyx by Fosun Pharma"
https://ir.ardelyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ardelyx-announces-acceptance-new-drug-application-tenapanor
This is going to be ramping up with a dip prior to FDA announcement along with some FUD, then it is going to spike up. Tutes going to dump on retail and move price back down. Then reload. Can play either way as the company will be a good long hold.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK591555/.....looks clean so far
Link isn't coming thru .
Will try again
LiverTox: Clinical and Research Information on Drug-Induced Liver Injury [Internet].
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Tenapanor
Last Update: April 30, 2023.
OVERVIEW
Introduction
Tenapanor is a small molecular inhibitor of the sodium/hydrogen ion exchanger-3 (NHE3) used to treat constipation predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Tenapanor has minimal systemic absorption and has not been associated with serum enzyme elevation during therapy nor has it been linked to cases of clinically apparent liver injury.
Background
Tenapanor (ten a’ pan or) is a small molecule inhibitor of the sodium-hydrogen exchanger isoform 3 (NHE3) which is responsible for sodium absorption in the intestine with resultant passive uptake of water. Inhibition of the transporter results in an increase in osmotic secretion of water, shortening of intestinal transit time and softening of stool consistency. On the other hand, inhibition of the exchanger can also result in diarrhea and possibly dehydration. Tenapanor acts locally and has minimal absorption.
Tenapanor was found to improve frequency numbers and completeness of bowel movements and symptoms of bloating and distension in patients with constipation-predominant IBS and was approved for this indication in adults in 2019.
Tenapanor has also been evaluated as a means of reducing hyperphosphatemia in patients with chronic renal failure on dialysis, but has yet to be given approval for that indication. Tenapanor is available in tablets of 50 mg under the brand name Ibsrela, the recommended dose being 50 mg twice daily taken before breakfast and before dinner. Tenapanor has not been approved for treatment of children and is contraindicated in children below the age of 6 because of the risk of dehydration. Common side effects include diarrhea, abdominal distension, flatulence, and dizziness. Rare, but potentially severe adverse events include severe diarrhea and dehydration. Tenapanor has embryo-fetal toxicity in animals and should not be used in pregnancy.
Hepatotoxicity
When given orally, tenapanor has minimal systemic absorption and has not been associated with elevations in serum enzymes or bilirubin or with instances of clinically apparent liver injury.
Since approval and general availability of tenapanor, there have been no published reports of liver injury attributed to its use.
--------------------
Kiwi
Jess ...as you know ...my view on AUPH is that altho Lupy is slowly gaining ground with increased use for LN , its unlikely any BP buys it until the Cosentyx P 3 trial for LN is known ( early 2025 )
Cosentyx is less expensive than Lupy with extensive safety data .
If that P 3 trial shows results close to or better than Lupy.... its over for AUPH .
Doubt any BP CEO would want to take that risk.
The Cosentyx trial enrolled 400 patients ...so it's a large , international , expensive trial. They will have a DMC ( data monitoring committee ) looking at the data probably every 6 mths and probably have a stop for futility written into the design ....ie If the DMC is not seeing benefit in the active arm vs control after say 1 yr on Cosentyx then they might stop the trial ( and save themselves a lot of $ ) .
But if the trial continues then I doubt any BP pulls the trigger until results are known.
ARDX 's drug is now well known and awaiting the OCT 17th 2023 PDUFA decision.
IMHO its almost certain to be approved .
Once approved I expect ARDX to negotiate a sale to a BP with an existing CKD sales force . I doubt they would go it alone for long with XPHOZAH for dialysis patients .
It's an easy bolt on for a BP already marketing in that space.
UNCY has an improved version of Sevelamer , which I think is the most commonly used serum phosphorous binder for dialysis patients ( Renvela , Renagel ) . Pharmokenetically the same drug just condensed into 1 pill per meal that can be swallowed instead of chewed.
This Co is set up for a buyout . Very unlikely they try to go it alone when approved .
RA Capital just disclosed a 9.9% stake
Both ARDX and UNCY remind me of the serum K ( potassium ) Co's I invested in ZSPH and RLYP ...which were both bought out .
JMO
Good luck
Kiwi
With you on these two stocks(uncy, ardx) but I’m not going gung Ho yet. You should again take a position on Auph. It’s an easy double bagger in a short time in my opinion.
Jess. I added UNCY ( see previous post ) today ....diversifying in the serum phosphorus lowering space .
I think their drug will eventually get approved and altho at least 9 mths behind ARDX ...will be used by those that can't make the transition on ARDX's XPHOZAH
The bottom line ...dialysis patients on serum phosphorous pills want fewer pills . ARDX's is one pill twice a day . UNCY's is one pill with each meal ( ie 3 a day )
https://unicycive.com/renazorb/
Kiwi
Jess I'm not concerned about the number of outstanding shares. Why is that a concern to you ?
What I think is important is the recent development with UNCY
UNCY has developed a " condensed " version of Fosrenol ( a commonly use phosphorous binder ) but has run into problems with their approval . FDA requiring more data which will probably delay their launch for a year .
In preparation for its anticipated NDA filing for LDC, the Company requested a pre-NDA meeting with the FDA to align on the contents of the NDA. As previously noted, the Agency had requested a 6-month toxicity study in mice comparing LDC and lanthanum carbonate (LC), the drug substance in Fosrenol®, the Reference Listed Drug for the 505(b)(2) regulatory pathway. The study report was submitted to the Agency as part of the pre-NDA meeting package showing that there was no evidence of any gastrointestinal (GI) neoplasms for either LC- or LDC-dosed mice. However, upon review of the study report, the Agency pointed out that although the GI adverse findings observed with LDC are qualitatively similar to lanthanum carbonate, there were quantitative differences.
Based on the review of this information, the FDA has asked the Company to provide additional information, including risk assessment and clinical data, to evaluate the tolerability of LDC in patients with chronic kidney disease on dialysis. The Company requested a follow-up meeting with the FDA to discuss its additional requests.
Kiwi, the reason I have a very small position on this stock is its high outstanding shares of 214M+. Reason I’m hesitating to increase my position is because of this. It may take a while to realize a high shareholder value but I’ll keep it in my radar.
The Japanese study
Phosphorus load is associated with the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), and thus regulation of serum phosphorus level is one of the most important treatment strategies for CKD–mineral and bone disorders (MBD).1, 2, 3, 4 However, approximately 30 % of Japanese patients requiring hemodialysis (HD) do not achieve the target range of serum phosphorus levels proposed by the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy, despite the use of phosphate binders.5 Tenapanor is a novel drug for the management of hyperphosphatemia that selectively inhibits sodium/hydrogen exchanger 3 (NHE3) on the luminal side of intestinal epithelial cells, thereby blocking the paracellular influx of phosphate.6, 7, 8 Here, we sought to confirm the efficacy and safety of tenapanor. Based on results from a Japanese dose-response study,9 we adopted an up-titration regimen starting from the lowest effective dose in the present study, rather than the down-titration regimen used in a US phase 3 study.10. ( my emphasis )
We conducted a phase 3, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study (NCT04767581) at 34 facilities in Japan. The study included a screening period, a phosphate binder washout period (up to 3 weeks), and a treatment period (8 weeks) (Figure S1). Patients whose serum phosphorus levels were within the target range with a stable dose of phosphate binders were pre-enrolled at a screening period according to the inclusion/exclusion criteria (Item S1). Pre-enrolled patients were subsequently enrolled if their serum phosphorus levels increased by ≥1.0 mg/dL to 6.1-9.9 mg/dL during the washout period. Enrolled patients received tenapanor or placebo twice daily (BID) for 8 weeks. Tenapanor was titrated step-wise starting from 5 mg BID, up to 10 mg, 20 mg, or 30 mg BID with ≥2-week intervals based on serum phosphorus level. During the study, serum samples were obtained before dialysis at the first session of the week, and the samples at baseline were collected on Day 1 (Week 0) before administration. The primary endpoint was the change in serum phosphorus level from baseline at Week 8.
Of the 216 pre-enrolled patients, 164 initiated the treatment period (82 per group) and 123 completed the study (tenapanor group: 65, placebo group: 58) (Figure S2). Baseline characteristics were well balanced between the groups (Table S1).
The changes in serum phosphorus levels at Week 8 from baseline in the tenapanor and placebo groups were -1.89 mg/dL and 0.05 mg/dL, respectively, with a significant difference of -1.95 mg/dL (95% confidence interval: -2.37, -1.53) (P <0.0001) (Figure 1A). Tenapanor significantly lowered serum phosphorus levels regardless of baseline characteristics of patients (Figure S3). In the tenapanor group, the mean serum phosphorus level decreased by 1.3 mg/dL, and >50% of patients achieved the target range immediately after administration (Figure 1B, C). These results indicate that the starting dose of tenapanor 5 mg BID has a relevant serum phosphorus-lowering effect. Additionally, the serum phosphorus level was decreased further by up-titration after Week 2. At Week 7, the mean dose of tenapanor reached 18.1 mg and the breakdown of dose levels was as follows: 5 mg, 13.8%; 10 mg, 33.8%; 20 mg, 16.9%; 30 mg, 35.4%; 69.2% of patients achieved the target range (Figure 1D, Figure S4). Furthermore, tenapanor did not affect the serum levels of any minerals such as calcium, sodium, potassium or magnesium, unlike other phosphate binders (Table S2). These data suggest the potential of tenapanor to control serum phosphorus levels when administered as monotherapy.
Figure thumbnail gr1
Figure 1Least-squares mean change in serum phosphorus level from baseline to Week 8 (A), time course of mean serum phosphorus level (B), proportion of patients who achieved the target serum phosphorus level (≥3.5 mg/dL and ≤6.0 mg/dL) at each time point (C), and time course of mean prescribed tenapanor dose (D). Error bars represent standard deviation.
View Large Image Figure ViewerDownload Hi-res image Download (PPT)
In each group, the most common adverse event was diarrhea (tenapanor group: 74.4%, placebo group: 19.5%) (Table 1). Among patients receiving tenapanor, most diarrhea (91.8%) cases were classified as mild and few patients (2.4%) discontinued the study because of diarrhea, suggesting that most diarrhea caused by tenapanor may be tolerable to Japanese patients. In the tenapanor group, the mean Bristol Stool Form Scale score and bowel movements per week slightly increased immediately after administration and remained constant thereafter (Figure S5). No clinically significant events occurred in either group during the study.
Table 1Summary of AEs and drug-related AEs
Tenapanor (n = 82) Placebo (n = 82)
n (%) n (%)
Any AE with an incidence >5% 76 (92.7) 54 (65.9)
Serious AE 4 (4.9) 5 (6.1)
Death 0 2 (2.4)
Serious AE other than death 4 (4.9) 3 (3.7)
Any AE with an incidence >5%
Diarrhea 61 (74.4) 16 (19.5)
Severity
Mild 56 (91.8) 13 (81.3)
Moderate 5 (8.2) 3 (18.7)
Severe 0 0
Discontinuation 2 (2.4) 0
Pyrexia 5 (6.1) 6 (7.3)
Shunt stenosis 5 (6.1) 3 (3.7)
Faces soft 5 (6.1) 4 (4.9)
Any drug-related AE with an incidence >5% 62 (75.6) 13 (15.9)
Diarrhea 62 (75.6) 8 (9.8)
Drug-related serious AE 0 0
The attending physician determined the severity according to the following definitions:
Mild: signs or symptoms present but not interfering with daily activities.
Moderate: interferes with daily activities due to discomfort or affects the clinical status.
Severe: inability to engage in daily activities or significant impact on clinical status.
In the case of discontinuation at the patient’s request, the tabulation was based on the information gathering by monitoring (no information gathering by electronic data capture).
AE, adverse event
Open table in a new tab
In the present study, 74.4% of patients receiving tenapanor experienced diarrhea, which is more than in the 30-mg down-titration group in a US study.10 Based on a relatively high incidence of diarrhea even in the placebo group in this study (19.5%), Japanese patients may be more sensitive to diarrhea than patients of other ethnicities.
The main limitation of this study was the short treatment period. Another phase 3 study conducted to confirm the long-term efficacy and safety of tenapanor would address this limitation.
In conclusion, in this phase 3 study with an up-titration regimen from the lowest dose, 5 mg BID, tenapanor significantly reduced the serum phosphorus level compared with placebo and was well tolerated in Japanese patients receiving HD. Thus, tenapanor administration with an up-titration regimen could be considered a new treatment option for hyperphosphatemia.
-------------------------
Kiwi
American Journal of Kidney Diseases
Tenapanor for the Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in Japanese Hemodialysis Patients: A Randomized Phase 3 Monotherapy Study With an Up-titration Regimen
American Journal of Kidney Diseases
Available online 15 June 2023
Kiwi
New Japanese study out... Science Direct
..."In conclusion, in this ph3 study with ... 5 mg BID, tenapanor significantly reduced the serum phosphorus level compared with placebo and was well tolerated in Japanese patients receiving HD."
Kiwi
I reduced my position on this date
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 12:13:31 PM
Post# of 1272
This is what the FDA probably wants more info on
Hyperkalemia
In a trial of another patient population with chronic kidney disease (defined by eGFR from 25 to 70 mL/min/1.73m2) and Type 2 diabetes mellitus, three serious adverse reactions of hyperkalemia resulting in hospitalization were reported in 3 patients (2 IBSRELA-treated patients and
1 placebo-treated patient).
So how much did the company pay for the "recommendation" from a proxy pusher firm?
Every move the company is trying to make is anti-shareholder value and dilutionary.
How many GD "chiefs" does this ticker have?
They seem to be actively trying to push the price down - Not a positive for me, considering bailing on these "chiefs" if their plan is to sell it down
I'm very upset that they handed out options to the top tier of the team. They should have been granted at a price of $10 each.
So if they were granted the options shouldn't they be required to forgo salaries?
The lustre is coming off this ticker when they pull crap like that to undercut the share price.
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