Ardelyx Inc (ARDX)

[ErnieBilco]

I followed you into UNCY when I sold out ARDX @ $7.45. ARDX owes me nothing as I entered at $1.13 long ago. Hoping to have the same return from the favorable entry in UNCY - I will continue to add on any drops that might present themselves.

You and Cosa are very in tune with the ins and outs of trials, approvals and the like whereas I fly by wire, I use gut feeling and how management treats shareholders and I just didn't like the feeling I was getting when looking at all the freebies self dealing of shares.

I wish all who remain the best of returns - There was a time when I realistically thought $25 - $30 - wish I still felt that way. ARDX certainly wouldn't be the first party I left too early.

[Whalatane]

Cosa ...No I had sold all my shares in the $4's thinking there was upside to UNCY ...we''l know if that was a good idea or not probably by the end of this month.

They say roughly half their sale are to Medicare patients ,
But Medicare can't use the coupon so its a Tier 5 drug ( at Kaiser anyway ) where patients typically pay 1/3 rd of the cost ...in this case around $1,000 each month
Co won't disclose how much of their " sales " were no cost to the patient .
Scripts are normally 30 days at a time ( NDS ) with a PA ( prior approval ).
Most hate the existing Pho binders so getting the PA is no problem . Getting renewal month after month at no cost to the patients ...dont know how long that would last or how many of the Medicare patients actually paid the full copay .

ARDX had prepared the launch really well . Had Renal depts identify those most likely to try XPHOZAH all ready in advance and then I suspect dropped a whole lot of free samples for the first month or 3 .

IF the copay for Medicare patients is around $1,000 a month , few of these patients IMHO will stay on X ...or sharply reduce how much they take each day
JMO
Kiwi

[Cosa]

I didnt see that filing. So she's still holding over 270,000 shares after that?

[ErnieBilco]

Elizabeth Grammer seems to think $9 is the top because she set 45K shares to sell there according to her 144 filing

[ErnieBilco]

The market obviously sees something I don't - Huge volume and nice price action.

[Cosa]

Indeed. Neph's are a specialty in their field. Word of mouth will spread like a wild fire. Did you sell all your shares or keep some? I closed my covered calls about 2 weeks ago for +75%, I think I'm going to sell another batch.

[Cosa]

Hmm..Well they're sitting on $202M at at the moment. SG&A expenses $53M + R&D Expenses $10.3M - Revenue $46M (Lets say it's flat every quarter) = -$17M a quarter. I don't think they will do an offering in the year 2024. The Xphozah revenue was quite shocking, it basically saying this is the best drug out there and everyone is starting to prescribe it. By Q3 the Xphozah revenue may surpass the Ibsrela revenue. By year 2025 revs could be ramping up between $300K - $0.5B. But an offering in this case is not a bad thing to support on going R&D. The more cash they are sitting only makes the company stronger in this case. Any lowball offer will be instantly rejected. BP loves lowballing companies on the verge of going belly up.

[Whalatane]

Cosa. These are excellent first Qt numbers for XPHOZAH ....sorry ..post repeated .
Either way shows how patients hate the current binders and Nephrologists are excited to offer an alternative that reduces pill burden and gives them dosing flexibility

ARDX now has first mover advantage even if UNCY's drug OLC eventually makes it onto the market
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Cosa. These are excellent first Qt numbers for XPHOZAH but keep in mind

1) They aren't reviewing how many are getting the drug for free ( via their coupon plan ) . They simply say around 55% are Medicare ( who can't use the coupon )
So are those on Medicare paying the full patient copay of an estimated $1,000 a mth ( Tier 5 rating )
They have probably provided a lot of free samples for the first couple of months ( my guess )

2) Early adopters . One of the main complaints on the existing binders is constipation .
One of the main problems with XPHOZAH is diarrhea in the first 2 wks ...less over time.
So the Nephrologists will have identified this who complain of constipation the most and offered them X ...as they want a " looser " stool anyway.

3) We have the final UNCY trial with their binder completed ...data due probably late this month .
This is 1 small pill with each meal vs 1 small pill at breakfast and 1 with dinner . Diarrhea is less of a problem with OLC but some experience nausea , stomach upsets. UNCY's final trial is about tolerability not efficacy .
If UNCY's trial fails ARDX's XPHOZAH will be the only new serum pho lowering drug available.
If UNCY's trial succeeds X will have competition in about a yr

Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Great, see ya at the end of Q3

[enthalpy]

Doubtful. This should profitable by Q3.

[ErnieBilco]

Wanna bet they do an offering? Sorry but the game plan seems too "pumpish". Conference news on the 1st and magical numbers out the 2nd???? Dig into the Q don't listen to what they say, read what is in the Q. Enjoy the run.

[Cosa]

The revs! in such a short amount of time. This is a monster in the making!

[Whalatane]

30 min in on the call ...60% are Medicare patients ( XPHOZAH )
Impressive ...just shows how much they hate the current binders that they are willing to fork over close to $1,000 each month as a co pay ( since they don't qualify for the coupons )
Watch the UNCY data due late this mth ,,,,an obvious direct competitor in a year if their trial succeeds.
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Thx. I'll listen to the CC ( or read the transcript.)
Most of my wife's dialysis patients are on serum pho binders ...they all hate them and none are at goal .
Most are Medicaid / Medicare and none are trying XPHOZAH at present

My wife also has some patients on Fosrenol ...a new version of which OLC ( UNCY ) will report pivotal data late this mth
1 small pill with meals vs 1 small pill with breakfast and dinner for XPHOZAH

Kiwi

[Mr.Mister]

They addressed the Medicare/Medicaid split on their call.

1st quarter sales are typically lowest, as I'm sure you know, due to deductible resets/seasonality. These guys even had to deal with the recent healthcare cyber attack and they still beat estimates

I can only imagine the growth that awaits us in the coming quarters once insurers fall in line

[Whalatane]

Well before U get to excited about XPHOZAH ...those on Medicare / Medicaid are excluded from their coupon plan ( no cost to private insurance patients )...and most on dialysis are over 65 ( the Medicare / Medicaid population )
So good impression out of the gate for the low hanging fruit
JMO
Kiwi

[Mr.Mister]

Good thing I kept adding during the 3 month sell off. These guys might be profitable by Q3

[Whalatane]

Impressive start for XPHOZAH . I think the Co must be providing huge discounts / coupons etc for patients as most dialysis patients ( if my wife's patients are any example ) can't afford the roughly $1,000 co pay without company assistance

Ahh. The coupon plan https://xphozah-hcp.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Xphozah_Copay_Card_.pdf
Kiwi

[Cosa]

That $6.30 area support held. Nice move after hours

IBSRELA® (tenapanor) records $28.4 million in net product sales revenue in Q1 2024
XPHOZAH® (tenapanor) launch progresses, records $15.2 million net product sales revenue during Q1 2024

https://ir.ardelyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ardelyx-reports-first-quarter-2024-financial-results-and

[Monksdream]

Rolling over. In fact my source for biomed stocks is Barchart. Biomed stocks peaked a few weeks ago.
Barchart has a sector list which currently has 460 issues. It used to be over 500. Barchart won’t include in its sector a stock priced below a dollar.

[Cosa]

Still watching... Not going to add until it hits $4's.

[ErnieBilco]

I'll be fine, my cost basis was $1.13 - $1.33 per share so my exit was fine, I should have gotten out at $9 but then I started thinking about every move mismanagement was making to drive the price down - I think it still has much downside to go.

I could be wrong but I made money which is what I always attempt to do.

[Mr.Mister]

You'll regret it in 2 and a half weeks.

[ErnieBilco]

The chart looks like a dumpster fire on its way. Glad I let go of my dreams for ARDX being a winner, I did well but was hoping for a bigger runner. Will most definitely see $6s maybe even lower.

[enthalpy]

Engulfing candle today. Might be the start of the run up in April.

[ErnieBilco]

OUT

[ErnieBilco]

Well obviously I missed the best exit. I'm sure they don't care about sales they just set the price insanely high in order to show imaginary value when they find a taker to buy this pig in a poke. Very disappointed in what I see happening here.

[Cosa]

Tutes now hold 100 Million more shares than back in 2022

From back in November 29, 2022. I uploaded this to my image gallery.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/11/29/ibdcjus-ardx-so.webp

Now:
https://fintel.io/so/us/ardx

[ErnieBilco]

management and the BOD are driving it into the ground, my guess is so they can try and sell it on the cheap to make bank on the excessive grants and options they have been throwing all over the place, hell even the guy who just started is in line for over 200K options.

I used to be extremely bullish on this ticker but management is proving to only be interested in themselves.

LOOKING FOR THE EXIT NOW THAT IT BROKE BELOW MY "$7.50 IS AS LOW AS IT MAY GO" POST.

[Monksdream]

ARDX under $10

[ErnieBilco]

Keep throwing those freebie shares around you clowns are gonna drive this down to .80 again. Total shitshow at this point.

Very very disappointed in this group of self dealers at the expense of shareholders. Keep up the BS and there won't be anything to sell besides worthless shares and a pipe dream.

[Whalatane]

https://www.healio.com/news/nephrology/20231110/video-drugs-in-the-pipeline-for-hyperphosphatemia-management?utm_source=selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

Kiwi

[Cosa]

Not much support below. I took profit on the way up and still holding about 40% of my shares, then sold cover calls on nearly 80% of the shares I had left. The market cap is still a little high at $1.8B. Just watching this patiently.

[Whalatane]

Yep they are definitely positioning for a sale .
So the big question will be sales of Xphazoh , and the UNCY pivotal trial with OLC .
UNCY has a number pf presentations at a major EU conference in May....trial results in June
So don't expect any deal until at least results of that trial ( the only near term competition ) is known
JMO
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

And there it is They hired an M&A guy, why would they bring on more dead weight unless they plan to sell out?

[ErnieBilco]

Great insight as always, Thanks

[Whalatane]

If they were only selling IBSRELA they would probably have been bt out already or negotiating a sale now. That drug has found a niche and is in demand.
Xphazoh is the unknown and may depend on what happens with UNCY's final trial with OLC .

If the final OLC trial succeeds ...that Co ( UNCY ) is very likely to be sold. Then the buyer will price OLC as less expensive then X ...for all those who hate the generics, and can afford the co pay of the new brand phosphorous lowering drugs.
OLC is 3 small pills a day swallowed with meals
X is 2 small pills ...1 in am , 1 in pm.
The advantage of OLC is that its a " condensed " version of Fosrenol ... a drug my wife already prescribes , so an easy transition

JMO
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Thanks, but do you think ARDX wants to remain a stand alone company or looking to sell out for cash???
With all the options and grants they have be tossing out to employees it appears to me, just a lil guy with no biopharma background, that they are setting themselves up with their golden parachutes. Again nothing more than my own gut feeling.
I take it UNCY is your most likely winner.

[Whalatane]

Ernie ...some thoughts on ARDX's strategy .
IBSRELA sales are strong ...co pay is around $400 a mth I think which this mostly working age population van afford.
With Xphazoh ...they may be following an Amgen / Repatha strategy .
When Repatha was first launched Amgen wanted $14,000 a yr for the sub Q drug . Insurers created huge roadblocks for coverage and most patients wouldn't pay the co pay anyway .
2 years later with poor sales Amgen cut the price to about $4,500 -$6,000 a year and insurers started covering , Co pay for patients ( I now use the drug ) is roughly $120 a month ...and sales have gone up significantly.

ARDX may provide discounts to patients ( help them with their copay ) to get them started ...then if they are still on X a year later slowly reduce their subsidy.
If UNCY's final trial succeeds with OLC ...one small pill with every meal ...swallowed not chewed ...they may / will be forced to lower their price when OLC launches ( maybe in 2025 ) assuming OLC is less expensive .
Theres also a question about the dialysis bundle ...will X and OLC be in the bundle ( which prefers generics ) or outside of the bundle enabling MD's to more freely prescribe

JMO
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

What is a company worth when the patients that need your drug can't afford it?

Management better figure something out fast or it'll be under $5 in no time.

Only other thought is a buyer is actively driving it lower before making an offer BUT if the drug is priced out of reach, why would they want it?? ARDX many have screwed the pooch and will now reap the consequences of a stupid decision.

[ErnieBilco]

Anything is possible but not likely when XBI only holds 1.2% of ARDX

Let's see if ARDX can claw its way toward even for the day.

[enthalpy]

Xbi is down 3% today pulling ardx down with it.

[ErnieBilco]

Well obviously someone with a much larger stake didn't take very kindly to Rep Carter's legislation unless shareholders are losing faith in the C suite who seem only concerned about handing out round after round of shares to insiders and new hires before they show they are even worth a paycheck let along freebies.

[Whalatane]

Its a plus for ARDX if X is kept out of the dialysis bundle .
X is Tenanapour ...same drug as used for IBSC.
Problem is the Co charges more per gm for the dialysis patients then for the IBSC patients
IBSC cost is $1200 a mth and patient co pay is about $400 . Generally a younger working age population.
Dialysis patients average age is mid 60's I think with limited income since they are in a dialysis chair 4 hrs a day , 3 times a week. .......yet ARDX is charging them a premium for the same drug !!!!

Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Thanks, now I have a better understanding of the process, Carter is actually working on the patients behalf, I can appreciate that.

The $3K a month for X seems unreasonably high - Glad I'm not one of the poor patients or a patient at all.

[Whalatane]

Ernie. I sold my position in ARDX some time ago ...see earlier posts and in full disclosure hold a position in UNCY .
The advocates for dialysis patients asked Rep Carter to represent their interests , present their concerns.
The most affordable phosphorous lower drugs are all generic. Problem is the patients hate them and most are nowhere near serum phosphorous goals. .
ARDX's X and UNCY's OLC are more patient friendly drugs likely to benefit these patients .

The problem is paying for them . In X's case around $3,000 a mth ...tier 5 means patient copay is around $1,000 a mth.
None of my wife's patients can afford this ...so won't be getting X unless ARDX provides a generous co pay buy down / coupon. .
If X ( and OLC ) go into the dialysis bundle it will severely limit any additional funds for X or OLC ....thats the concern and why Rep Carter is pushing legislation to keep the new phosphorus lower dugs out of the dialysis bundle .

Above is my layman's understanding of the issue.

Good luck
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Like most things gooberment related, I just can't think Stupid like they can. Why should any representative be involved with such things? Shouldn't the most affordable drug be used since they are spending my money? If the makers of X want to limit their sales to self pays it is not the gooberments business.

I have lost faith in ARDX and have begun reducing holdings in all accounts.

[Whalatane]

Ernie The dialysis payment bundle puts a cap on what the govt will pay thru Medicare / Medicaid for dialysis treatment .
Since the payment is capped ,it limits funds for new more expense brand drugs ( Xphazoh ) ...in favor of existing generic ( Selevmar ) .
Rep Carter is trying to delay this for several years to make X more affordable for dialysis patients ...unless an IV binder is approved ( which is unlikely near term )
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

I'm a slower reader but what I take from this is that Rep Earl L. "Butthead" Carter is in someone's pocket looking to delay oral binders until someone he must know gets an approved IV binder. Seem very contrary to the needs of the kidney community's needs NOW not 10 years from now.

Where do people find these fools to pretend to represent us?

Please explain how I'm wrong.