Ardelyx Inc (ARDX)

[Whalatane]

Jess ...as you know ...my view on AUPH is that altho Lupy is slowly gaining ground with increased use for LN , its unlikely any BP buys it until the Cosentyx P 3 trial for LN is known ( early 2025 )
Cosentyx is less expensive than Lupy with extensive safety data .
If that P 3 trial shows results close to or better than Lupy.... its over for AUPH .
Doubt any BP CEO would want to take that risk.
The Cosentyx trial enrolled 400 patients ...so it's a large , international , expensive trial. They will have a DMC ( data monitoring committee ) looking at the data probably every 6 mths and probably have a stop for futility written into the design ....ie If the DMC is not seeing benefit in the active arm vs control after say 1 yr on Cosentyx then they might stop the trial ( and save themselves a lot of $ ) .
But if the trial continues then I doubt any BP pulls the trigger until results are known.

ARDX 's drug is now well known and awaiting the OCT 17th 2023 PDUFA decision.
IMHO its almost certain to be approved .
Once approved I expect ARDX to negotiate a sale to a BP with an existing CKD sales force . I doubt they would go it alone for long with XPHOZAH for dialysis patients .
It's an easy bolt on for a BP already marketing in that space.

UNCY has an improved version of Sevelamer , which I think is the most commonly used serum phosphorous binder for dialysis patients ( Renvela , Renagel ) . Pharmokenetically the same drug just condensed into 1 pill per meal that can be swallowed instead of chewed.
This Co is set up for a buyout . Very unlikely they try to go it alone when approved .
RA Capital just disclosed a 9.9% stake

Both ARDX and UNCY remind me of the serum K ( potassium ) Co's I invested in ZSPH and RLYP ...which were both bought out .

JMO
Good luck
Kiwi