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Troubled Waters Here Keep.
This one has been cratering [-60%] due to the release of the latest S1 amendment. Will it rebound? that will depend on management of this company, who essentially shot themselves in the foot by the mention of an Reverse Split of 1:6. It was uncalled for, unnecessary at that time (price was at or above $4) Now the stock will struggle to achieve any resemblance of stability. Retail investors are going to bleed here until they take action [new S1a, news, partnership etc]
There is no floor & in reality, $1 may be next. They essentially now NEED an R/S to make the price to uplist. Maybe this was their inside way of killing off all the legacy shareholders here. Everyone that bought now above $1.50 is holding a loss. Hard to believe. Those with any profits will bleed until they say enough and bail out. This can go as low as .66c and would hit the $4 Nas minimum on the stated 1:6 R/S.
Crickets.
Doesn't this have to bounce back in a big way?
Those views from the Corporate Office should really boost the stock price! Haha
I completely agree and that is why I have a massive amount into tcri. Then arat as a web3 diversification with decentralization. I already made my money in apld after a couple of wrong moves but was able to get 2x when it should have been more like 5-8x. I will never argue with a double. With that said I can easily see $100 on Tcri and $50 on arat. The liquidity is bad now because there are zero sellers. There a lot of real long holders in arat. One benefit I clearly like
*oes, Different Area Codes..
All are just plays, you engage the setup & can't control the rest. Sometimes they deliver, many times the falter. Of The 3, ARAT/APLD/TCRI...only TCRI has the capacity based on the setup to orchestrate a 50-100x. APLD has had it's best move already(15x in '21). ARAT may swing wildly, but it will likely not be able to maintain it with the liquidity issue. TCRI is a bonafide gamma burst explosion if it plays right. But again, the setup engaged, can't control the rest.
I like your responses as usual! Yes, liquidity is a concern if you want to get out of ARAT right now but that will change once they up-list. The up-list? I don't see that happening into this fall but there will be at least 2-3 super liquid days over the next 2-3 months to take gains and leave a core position. I think out of all these we look at, about 50% have a STRONG probability of being zip code changers even if you moved up 2x already :)
A Rat Came & Went. I was APaL'd
LOL. I had A RAT on a watch list as a custo/low float play way back when it was $1. With that price, I didn't throw anything at it. The liquidity concern there is real. Sure you can build a position but they barely move a few Gs a day. They have to get the liquidity & interest up. You look at TCRI & that I preferred as it was a RM play at a sub $7M market cap when I loaded. APLD was a sub $10M. These plays can be lucrative. But things have to line up. Luck sometimes have to be on your side. I have quite a few RM plays that right now on the OTC there just is no volume. No volume no runs. Last year was a anomaly, OTC is pretty dead right now. A few winners here & there but the lights got turned off after the last Stimmy!
You are awesome brother! So nice to converse with someone who does their DD and has the experience to understand.
Yes, my 50 cents is a low ball but i have been around the otc too long and i see people losing patience. too bad for them. that is not specific only to this play but all other otc sit and wait plays i have been on.
I don't remember but are you in $ARAT? They are not a miner but have created the Core decentralized network that is amazing. It is a play on decentralization not crypto mining so they don't compete with APLD here. I suggest you go to the board as I just posted an amazing tweet. Sorry to talk about another stock here as that isn't my intention. I just was curious if you have seen it since you are always in the "know".
In the long run, these guys (APLD) are golden and will be extremely successful. Unfortunately APLD will have to continue to deal with the cesspool better known as the OTC for some more time to come
Tiger's Money Honey.
I have to say that the S1a really has presented much for thought. I can only go with what I have seen. There have been 10 revisions since the onset of the first S1. Likely, there will be more as there are some material errors in the latest document re share count & date of etc.
*Uplists are not going through easily, the time duration on an uplist seems to be enormous at this time. I know tickers that are nearing a year, some that took a year to get the listing finalized. I do not think APLD is nearing an exit immediately off the OTC.
**B. Riley has become/will become by party a 10% owner in APLD. They have the capacity to enact bid support on this ticker. And, with the limited current float Say it's 7.7M based on the S1a stating that after the split 1,283,978 shares of common stock outstanding are unrestricted, so 6* that and you get the current 7.7M float.
***We have seen that it took $1.3M in dollar volume to move this lower from $4 to $1.90 current. $1.0M dollars is nothing to most institutional investors. Should they enact a decree to stabilize the price, it may only take a few million to reset this to the S1a pricing levels.
****Now the S1a, is setting up the capital share structure that they would like to be at on NAS. For this they wish for 54,763,534 O/S at the then $3.75($22.50 adjusted), equating to a market cap of ~$1.2B. Peers, like say MARA/RIOT are over 100M O/S. So I suspect there is room for flexibility on this structure. Much of all these share actions will not be dilutive as in truth the concern for liquidity is going to be there if in truth as stated the total unrestricted shares after the possible split is only 1,283,978.
*****This is just my opinion on R/S, yes I understand they are needed on the OTC at times for exiting onto better exchange. But, there's to me at least & I believe historical studies have been done on this, most R/S are poor mechanisms. For Big Money holders/Institutional, they can withstand an R/S as for them they have the luxury of time, large share class/lots & can withstand the shortfalls that occur with R/S. Personally, I would much rather have the larger lot of shares, than be reduced on an R/S. In the case here, if you had 100k shares here, upon split you have 16.6k. Before, when it would move up $1, you went +$100k, now that same post split position on a $1 gain makes you $16.6k.... It would take a $6 move to make the same amount of money. And the real question is what will be the propensity for an $1 move vs a $6 move. Most investors will say the $1 move is of better benefit, risk to reward. The $1 & $6 move might be equal on percent move, but I much rather have the smaller goal of a $1 move here current vs hoping for $6 later.
******The other thing is R/S often are traps, most brokerages do not convert post R/S split in time for them to be actionable on debut. So it splits, you're trapped, can't exit, if if should tank before your broker converts it's the ole no vaseline. So this is a Risk factor for the retail investor
I can't at this time see this going to your 50c target. And I suspect they are a long ways [months] from an actual uplisting. Plus, in the current market environment, it may be better business to hold off, so they could sit on it for a bit. I expect more S1a to hit the SEC site. They may release another s1 that removes the R/S entirely. The overhang of the R/S will keep some away. And some are going to exit. I do believe APLD, is setting up a phenomenal business and this in truth has been the first challenge since the reverse merger into this ticker. A lot has been accomplished, and this is not an ordinary OTC entity. Next weeks trading should be interesting, the volume here this past week was a lot for this ticker. Got to see what occurs on the follow up. It doesn't take much to move it. You look at the charts & see that it's buckled a few times & rebounded. But this new challenge will be with that R/S overhang out there. The unfortunate thing is their desire for an R/S is more hinged on setting the right share capital structure for NAS, and in that I think it will be inevitable that an R/S occurs. Just my long winded take on this, I know nothing and am rolling dice like many others LOL. Next week is important here!!
KK - when do you think the reverse split will occur? I can see this falling back to the 50 cent range simply on that news.
Sadly, i think that because 99% of otc traders don't understand what they are doing and don't know a reverse split is actually a good thing sometimes. can't fix stupid as i have fought against such simpletons before on reverses only to get it handed to me...
the two words REVERSE SPLIT simply sends everyone to the hills....this stock is going to go through a very rough patch for that reason. i'm not bashing but simply stating what i have unfortunately learned through history...
on the good side, it looks like bitcoin has finally established a new range in the $34k-38k area. I know this is ether but they are all trading on top of each other right now and will until the markets stabilize some more.
Also remember Crypto had taken a beating this year also affected all mining companies
A lot of factors here. Nothing is easy. I lightened my load at 5 bucks. Bought more yesterday and today
Only time will tell. Been here since April 2021. It’s been good to me. Im going to be sticking around.
Price support card will shoot this thing up quickly
Big Chips..
B. Riley might have to pull out the price support card as well.
They are not rookies for sure, but they surely want the share structure to align a certain way. A PR/News doesn't do that, it may get the price to $4. But, if this is going to NAS, they don't want the present Share Structure there. next week's trading should be interesting. The volume here off the S1 was more than it's seen in a bit. JMHO.
A capital raise will get this over 4 bucks ASAP. IMO there will be no R/S.
Get some news /PR out there.
Wes and this crew aren’t rookies
Broken Trading Channel...
This stock was steadily trading over $4 for a bit & in the $3-4 range since October. In that time they've released 10 S1 filings, and the reaction was fine up until this last one. If they are seeking a particular share structure [~50M O/S] to uplist at, then really there's nothing to do but watch them R/S. They wish to list at ~50M O/S, not at the current share structure. To achieve that they've laid out their plan. They DON'T want to list at ~$4,they're hoping for ~$24. JMHO
Fancy Bags For Some.
Tough to think anyone that got in since October here now is either a bag holder, have exited or are maybe riding it out. The S1/RS notice really killed it- 50% shave off this week. It has increased volume 10 fold. Got to question why management chose to do that on that S1. Just a poor decision at the time when the stock was steadily at $4 & could have achieved the NAS minimum levels. They went an monkey wrenched this play up. Now that R/S overhang will for sure cause this to linger lower. Now some penny holder can dump their lots & sink it even lower. This stock has become a bit dangerous. $1.55 lows. Sept 1, 21 was the last time it was touching prices like that. This is in waterfall drop mode. JMHO fellas.
Actually a pretty cool story
Reverse stock split is an action intended to fulfill the stock price requirements for official listing on NASDAQ, which requires that the Company's common stock price be at $4.00 or higher at the time of listing.
SOFO,BRFH,AZ,FNGR,SPRC,IAIC (WAVD),some examples of recent uplisters without R/S at the time of listing.
4 dollars per share are enough to be able to go public and I believe that with the potential this company has, it can do it without any R/S
this is a bit unique cause of the desparage between the float and the OS I hope they do the right thing, I have high confidence in them
Yeah It's strange,
I have seen some R/S that created that illiquid scenario you presented. But most times the company go ahead and run right into it without regard. For ex GAME/TOMZ those two did 1:15, 1:8 respectively for their uplists. They brought their O/S down to 15M & 19M, got their uplists done & both are in dire straights after getting uplisted. I suspect at a certain point the "float" just becomes hedgies/funds/etc playing circle jerk with one another. The whole "float is locked" is the ole loch ness of the markets LOL.
If their aim here is to get to a 50M O/S company, then they will do what it takes to get that, and at the moment that will require an R/S. WE shall see..
with a 7.5M float anything bigger than 1:5 would make it illquid I hope they are considering that. also I hope they are going to either retire some of the OS or convert it to preferred the mkt is quite high articifically
Hey. Dub B's
Curious why you're using an "IF" when they have filed that there will be one upon getting NAS listing. I sense the folks here are not moving on the impression that the R/S is occurring when they in fact have priced the offering at then $22.50 or 6* then price of $3.75.
If an implied $22.50 is what they offering at, then the split ratio COULD infact be higher than 1:6. At $2 current it could be 1:11 to hit the offer price. It's all a mystery but I'm just wondering why some seem to be not taking the R/S filed more significantly. Ofcourse they could fail to get NAS listing too as well LOL
if there is an rs it will be tiny cause the float is so low already
Impending Overhang of R/S won't help Price.
It took $927K of dollar volume after the S1, R/S notice on 1/24 to rock this 50% down. Can't see that kind of $volume re entering with that R/S looming as an overhang. Safer for buy side investors to wait to see if/when an uplist occurs & where the price is then. Why buy into an R/S??
Date Volume
2022-01-28 31.00K (current)
2022-01-27 128.28k
2022-01-26 234.89k
2022-01-25 22.04k
2022-01-24 18 64k
2022-01-21 7.767K
2022-01-20 10 99k
2022-01-19 10.40k
This stock need only 464K shares to drop from 4$ to 1,55$; big volume could push this to 4-5 + $ again in a blink.
Italstallion
Correct no need for a R/S
agreed lets get these pesky sellers out too
They are targeting bringing 780MW online in 2022, 1.5GW over the next two years and 5GW over the next five years. Cryptocurrency mining giant BITMAIN/ANTPOOL are behind these guys. I hope a possibile future buyout or M/A plan. Read this interesting article: https://www.investopedia.com/news/crypto-mining-giant-bitmain-going-public-4050-billion-valuation/
The current mining crackdown in China will provide a strong tailwind to their hosting business.
Core Scientific ($CORX) will be the competitor. IMO no need of R/S.
tweet:
Views from above Jamestown 1 https://t.co/RXEYl9jX39
— Applied Digital (@APLDdigital) January 28, 2022
It'll Be Interesting.
Have seen too many R/S stories for my lifetime. The amount of times R/S are a recipe for success is limited. Anyone know any that an R/S occurred and the stock rose?????In my experience most R/S get shaved to 50%+ of debut [1st day] price.
I know only one & it really shouldn't count. TCRIF/ Score Media did a 1:10, for uplist then subsequently tanked 65% on NAS and then were bought out 6 months later by PENN at debut price.
You may be referring to the OTC world where a stock can get pumped to unrealistic prices. I agree you will lose that. I have no idea where this will go. Especially in this current market. Hoping this downdraft volume subsides as those who bought in the pennies unload and things stabilize.
Common Argument..
Yeah but let's be honest, do you EXPECT a $6 move?
This is where the flawed R/S thinking starts. THIS will NOT move $6.
Even at that S1 stated pricing of $22.50, a $6 move would be huge. I'm just not feeling it LOL.
Guess if the goal is to make money on a play, R/S tend to be a hinderance to it in some capacity.
Have any R/S worked is the other grand question LOL
The only flaw to your thinking is you are looking at dollar moves not percentage moves. $1 pre split and a $6 move post split gives you the same gain as a percentage of your investment.
Yeah, Unfortunate Really..
It's interesting that they have had two S1 amendments in January the one on the 6th and another on the 24th. The one on the 24th has been reactionary in the price cratering. With a looming/possible R/S who willingly will buy in now knowing the craziness that occurs with R/S on the OTC?? You buy 600 now & get 100 later, the trained lie that markets/fin media tell people is that R/S changes nothing. But R/S are highly detrimental actions to shareholders. Your dollar gain potential gets absolutely decimated!! Every tick move after a R/S means a whole lot less money than prior. The gain you would make on a $1 move now will require a $6 rise after. R/S are truly horrible.
You make some good valid points. Too bad they couldn’t have pulled this off a couple weeks ago. Still hoping they kick the can down a couple months.
Bad Timing Too I Guess.
Them disclosing a possible R/S the same week that cryptos/equities are battling for air can't be helping. Anyone sitting on a profit has to make that critical decision as to what may or may not happen. I have seen two uplists totally devour stocks [TOMZ/GAME] both R/S'd into the uplist & never ever saw success. While I like this story here, there's some negative factors sneaking in at the moment. Primarily the R/S which would not make this a money making position at that ratio. Got to ask the question of when the share structure is at your advantage & when it is not. Once they start to talk R/S it's going to be chaos.
Shall See About That Good Day..
I am thinking this likely sells off more to close out the week. I hope perhaps I am wrong. But, there's a bit of indication with the volume/dollar volume flow through in the last two days after the S1 released amendment & R/S mention. Got to measure the possibility of those with large share holdings contemplating if/when they get an uplist notification there will/may be no opportunity for exit for a while as shares are "trapped" on a R/S and many times you don't have the ability to trade out. Seen this occur many times, the stock does an R/S but most brokers don't convert shares immediately & you're left watching it go either up or down from the sidelines.
I will never understand why a reverse split on a low float and I hope CEO thinks about it.It wouldn't be a good calling card for new Nasdaq investors..a good day starts in the morning, do not miss it!
Yes. I also believe there is more intel.( more to the story) Sticking this one out for sure.
Yeah. I guess the real question is what is a fair valued market cap. If they were finding buyers for a capital raise at a $1 billion plus valuation I guess I will stick around and ride it out. I still believe there is more to the story here and am looking forward to a better listing exchange with more liquidity.
Not Liking It Much..
50% wiped out this week. And this is trending lower on heavier volume. Not a fan of R/S, and here it's no different. Tradeable float means very little if the other dynamics are failing. While I was worried prior about the "high" market cap at $1.3B, it's now $600M & I can see it going to $300M before it goes to $900M. Low volume can drop this to $1 in a blink. There's nothing to support an uptick right now. And the looming R/S is not going to help, nor an uplist.
Yeah I was wondering about that offering too. Was hoping they would hold back until the markets settled down. Unless they have someone with deep pockets that can prop this up again while we still have a tiny tradable float
Interesting..
They effectually priced the offering at "$22.50" which was $3.75 November priced*6 the reverse ratio. At this point we're looking at $2, or a "$12" offering at best. That ratio might screw us all if it has to shift even more. Reverse Splits are death nails to holders who have a nice size share holding, your dollar gains drop so dramatically on price moves. For ex. if you held 6000 shares here, for every $1 move you would be up $6k. On a 1:6 R/S you now have 1000 shares & $1 move only makes you $1k. I can see why some bailed. Wonder if Beener still on board, moves like this hurt guys like him
Yeah I understand what you’re saying. Must be worded wrong. Should say that is that the share count will be not is after all these activities
That seems to be it . 328,581,519/6=54,763,586
gHunt..
It's got me a bit confused, as it states the current O/S as of 1/19 is that 54M. And then they PLAN to make effective a 1:6. Or am I reading it wrong?
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