Applied Blockchain Inc (APLD)

[KingsKnight]

Tiger's Money Honey.
I have to say that the S1a really has presented much for thought. I can only go with what I have seen. There have been 10 revisions since the onset of the first S1. Likely, there will be more as there are some material errors in the latest document re share count & date of etc.

*Uplists are not going through easily, the time duration on an uplist seems to be enormous at this time. I know tickers that are nearing a year, some that took a year to get the listing finalized. I do not think APLD is nearing an exit immediately off the OTC.

**B. Riley has become/will become by party a 10% owner in APLD. They have the capacity to enact bid support on this ticker. And, with the limited current float Say it's 7.7M based on the S1a stating that after the split 1,283,978 shares of common stock outstanding are unrestricted, so 6* that and you get the current 7.7M float.

***We have seen that it took $1.3M in dollar volume to move this lower from $4 to $1.90 current. $1.0M dollars is nothing to most institutional investors. Should they enact a decree to stabilize the price, it may only take a few million to reset this to the S1a pricing levels.

****Now the S1a, is setting up the capital share structure that they would like to be at on NAS. For this they wish for 54,763,534 O/S at the then $3.75($22.50 adjusted), equating to a market cap of ~$1.2B. Peers, like say MARA/RIOT are over 100M O/S. So I suspect there is room for flexibility on this structure. Much of all these share actions will not be dilutive as in truth the concern for liquidity is going to be there if in truth as stated the total unrestricted shares after the possible split is only 1,283,978.

*****This is just my opinion on R/S, yes I understand they are needed on the OTC at times for exiting onto better exchange. But, there's to me at least & I believe historical studies have been done on this, most R/S are poor mechanisms. For Big Money holders/Institutional, they can withstand an R/S as for them they have the luxury of time, large share class/lots & can withstand the shortfalls that occur with R/S. Personally, I would much rather have the larger lot of shares, than be reduced on an R/S. In the case here, if you had 100k shares here, upon split you have 16.6k. Before, when it would move up $1, you went +$100k, now that same post split position on a $1 gain makes you $16.6k.... It would take a $6 move to make the same amount of money. And the real question is what will be the propensity for an $1 move vs a $6 move. Most investors will say the $1 move is of better benefit, risk to reward. The $1 & $6 move might be equal on percent move, but I much rather have the smaller goal of a $1 move here current vs hoping for $6 later.

******The other thing is R/S often are traps, most brokerages do not convert post R/S split in time for them to be actionable on debut. So it splits, you're trapped, can't exit, if if should tank before your broker converts it's the ole no vaseline. So this is a Risk factor for the retail investor

I can't at this time see this going to your 50c target. And I suspect they are a long ways [months] from an actual uplisting. Plus, in the current market environment, it may be better business to hold off, so they could sit on it for a bit. I expect more S1a to hit the SEC site. They may release another s1 that removes the R/S entirely. The overhang of the R/S will keep some away. And some are going to exit. I do believe APLD, is setting up a phenomenal business and this in truth has been the first challenge since the reverse merger into this ticker. A lot has been accomplished, and this is not an ordinary OTC entity. Next weeks trading should be interesting, the volume here this past week was a lot for this ticker. Got to see what occurs on the follow up. It doesn't take much to move it. You look at the charts & see that it's buckled a few times & rebounded. But this new challenge will be with that R/S overhang out there. The unfortunate thing is their desire for an R/S is more hinged on setting the right share capital structure for NAS, and in that I think it will be inevitable that an R/S occurs. Just my long winded take on this, I know nothing and am rolling dice like many others LOL. Next week is important here!!

Tiger Money Saturday, 01/29/22 01:39:47 PM
Re: KingsKnight post# 2030
KK - when do you think the reverse split will occur? I can see this falling back to the 50 cent range simply on that news.
Sadly, i think that because 99% of otc traders don't understand what they are doing and don't know a reverse split is actually a good thing sometimes. can't fix stupid as i have fought against such simpletons before on reverses only to get it handed to me...
the two words REVERSE SPLIT simply sends everyone to the hills....this stock is going to go through a very rough patch for that reason. i'm not bashing but simply stating what i have unfortunately learned through history...
on the good side, it looks like bitcoin has finally established a new range in the $34k-38k area. I know this is ether but they are all trading on top of each other right now and will until the markets stabilize some more.