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Apple (AAPL) Is A Strong BUY Now, Here's Why
By: Tom Bowley | July 6, 2022
In case you haven't followed my work, I was very bearish U.S. equities as we opened 2022. I didn't wait to see the carnage to tell you that there was carnage. I predicted the carnage before we ever saw it. Included in those bearish predictions was a wild prediction about Apple, Inc. (AAPL) on January 4th, 2022. I suggested that AAPL could fall 20-30%. You can check out what I wrote in the following article, "The Great Divide Presents Big Problems....and a Wild Prediction for Apple (AAPL)". After you read the article, make sure you "subscribe" to my Trading Places blog below the article. If you provide StockCharts.com your name and email address in the space provided, all of my Trading Places blog articles will be sent directly to your inbox as soon as my articles are published. That way, you won't miss another one.
In my January 7th ChartWatchers article, I published a chart of AAPL, showing the history of significant declines in its past and, once again, suggesting that AAPL could see a selloff of 20-30%. I went on to show a chart that would illustrate what AAPL would look like if it were to fall 35% - as it did in previous down cycles. Here's the chart I showed then, with the subsequent 2022 market action in the chart as well:
Now REMEMBER, this chart was provided in early January at the market top. There was no Monday morning quarterbacking here. There are a lot of perma-bull AAPL fans out there that criticized me at the time. But I'm sure they wish they had sold back then now.
So what's my current thinking on AAPL? I LOVE IT! Could it move lower? Sure, but its history suggests that we buy these types of corrections. AAPL reached a low of 129.04 on June 16th, which represented a 29.27% decline off of its all-time high of 182.44 on January 4th, 2022. There's a historical component that makes AAPL very compelling right now. Since the S&P 500 broke out to new all-time highs on April 10, 2013 (clearing tops in 2000 and 2007), AAPL's best two consecutive calendar months for relative performance is July and August. You don't have to believe me, just look at this seasonal chart:
Finally, let's take a quick look at the positive divergence (slowing selling momentum) that's printed on AAPL's daily chart:
Note that AAPL flashed a negative divergence to support the notion of slowing buying momentum and the bearish theory back in January.
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Who doesn't like a nice Apple Bottom? Lol! Bought calls today!
Bullish stochastics divergent buy signal rarely fails, bottom is in at 129 imo
Apple Daily. Need to see a break of 144 to negate the potential bearish triangle
By: ReciKnows | July 5, 2022
• $AAPL Daily. Need to see a break of 144 to negate the potential bearish triangle. Failure to break and it sees new low's.
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Apple: Analysts Divided On Stock’s Outlook As Demand Weakens
By: Investing.com | July 5, 2022
• The most significant risk for Apple’s earnings outlook is falling demand for hardware and services due to worsening macroeconomic conditions
• So far, analysts are divided on whether Apple will face the full brunt of a possible recession
• JPMorgan reiterated its overweight rating on Apple, saying in a note that the tech giant will remain resilient
Having fallen around 21.6% this year, the largest company in the US, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), has fared much better than most of its mega-cap technology peers amid the ongoing market rout.
AAPL Weekly Chart
Several reasons indicate that the iPhone maker is in a good position to weather the current macroeconomic storm. The Cupertino, California-based company has a massive user base, a remarkable ability to pass on higher costs to its relatively wealthy customers, and a massive cash pile—which can lead to share buybacks and increased dividends.
Furthermore, Apple bulls argue that demand for iPhones, wearables, and other gadgets and services remains strong. Market forecasts for the company’s flagship iPhone sales have hovered closer to 240 million units for this year, driven by an expected significant update to the phone in the fall.
Inflationary Risks
While the outlook remains positive, increasing macroeconomic risks could derail the company's optimism. The biggest one is how Apple consumers will react to inflationary pressures—something they haven't experienced before.
The last time the inflation rate was this high, Apple had been a public company for less than a year, and its best-selling product was the Apple II home computer. In May, the annual inflation rate hit 8.6%, the highest level since 1981, with other major economies facing a similar trend.
That is perhaps why the analyst community remains divided on Apple’s earnings outlook. While most still rate Apple stock as a “buy” in an Investing.com poll of 48 analysts, some have trimmed their price targets in recent weeks.
AAPL Consensus Estimates
Source: Investing.com
Earnings Estimates
Over the past three months, analysts have progressively cut their estimates for Apple’s fiscal third-quarter earnings by 7.8%. Revenue projections are down about 4.2% over the same period.
KeyBanc Capital Markets sees signs of softer US demand, citing credit card data spending. Others have raised concerns about the pace of revenue growth at the company’s App Store, with Morgan Stanley adding that this poses risks to its estimates for Apple’s Services business.
Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU), the largest US maker of memory semiconductors used in computers and smartphones, told investors last week that it’s seeing a slowdown in demand and expecting its customers in the PC and smartphone businesses to adjust their inventories.
If inflation starts pressuring Apple customers, they could begin to put off their iPhone upgrades hurting the company’s sales projections for this year.
Apple also faces increasing costs from global logistics, rising employee salaries, and supply constraints related to the China shutdowns this year. In April, the company told investors that the combination of headwinds could result in a revenue decrease of around $8 billion.
On the other hand, JPMorgan reiterated its overweight rating on Apple, saying in a note last Friday that the tech giant will remain resilient due to its already conservative future guidance provided during last Q2 earnings release. The note added:
“Contrary to popular investor sentiment and expectations of downside to estimates on account of a slowdown of consumer spending and FX headwinds, we believe near-term estimates are instead resilient relative to the conservative guide already issued by the company on the last earnings call.
[...]We see upside on several aspects of the business as well as financials that remain underappreciated by investors, namely the transformation of the company to Services, growth in the installed base, technology leadership, and optionality around capital deployment—all of which together lead us to expect double-digit earnings growth and a modest re-rating for the shares.”
JPMorgan also maintained a December price target of $200 on Apple, implying a roughly 43% upside potential from the current price.
Bottom line
It’s hard to predict how badly the current adverse macroeconomic environment will hurt Apple sales in the short run. Still, Apple is a reliable company well-positioned to outperform in a challenging operating environment.
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Apple (AAPL) Flipping green after finding support off the volume shelf
By: TrendSpider | July 5, 2022
• $AAPL Flipping green after finding support off the volume shelf.
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AAPL July is the strongest month of the year for Apple
By: TrendSpider | July 4, 2022
• $AAPL July is the strongest month of the year for Apple.
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Apple (AAPL) Forget the noise, very sharp downtrend in play now, takes that out w/ volume and it's a trade. 130 area is support
By: Options Mike | July 4, 2022
• $AAPL Forget the noise, very sharp downtrend in play now, takes that out w/ volume and it's a trade. 130 area is support.
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Apple (AAPL) Monthly former trendline support now acting as resistance
By: Theta Warrior | June 30, 2022
• $AAPL Monthly former trendline support now acting as resistance.
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Analyst Reiterates Bullish Position on Apple (AAPL) Stock
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | July 1, 2022
• J.P. Morgan Securities maintains an "overweight" rating and $200 price target
• Seasonality shows AAPL is one of the best stocks to own in July
J.P. Morgan Securities today reiterated its position on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), maintaining its "overweight" rating, $200 price target, and fiscal 2024 estimates. The analyst acknowledged other firms' skepticism regarding AAPL's prospects amid a slowdown of consumer spending and currency headwinds, but said better fiscal supply dynamics in the third-quarter "will overwhelm the modest demand weakness."
Despite the bull note, Apple stock is muted ahead of today's open, last seen down 0.4% to trade at $136.12. The equity has an intriguing entry point, sitting 23% lower year-to-date following three-straight monthly losses. What's more, Apple stock is just one of two FAANG concerns to land on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of 25 best stocks to own in July, which indicates near-term strength. In fact, the security has averaged a one-month return of 6.4% going back 10 years, with all but one of these returns being positive.
Analyst sentiment is firmly bullish at the moment, with 19 of 21 in coverage rating the security a "buy" or better, coming into today. What's more, the 12-month consensus price target of $186.73 is a 37.2% premium to last night's close.
An unwinding of options traders' pessimism could put more wind at the stock's sails, as puts are being picked up at their quickest clip in a year. This is per AAPL's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.04 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands higher than 100% readings from the past 12 months.
Mirroring this sentiment, short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased than they currently are. This is per Apple stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.12, which stands in the 99th percentile of annual readings.
It's also worth noting that the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) stands at 91 out of 100. This elevated score indicates AAPL has exceeded options traders' volatility expectations over the past year -- a boon for premium buyers.
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Apple eyes fuel purchases from dashboard as it revs up car software
By: Stephen Nellis | June 30, 2022
(Reuters) - Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) wants you to start buying gas directly from your car dashboard as early as this fall, when the newest version of its CarPlay software rolls out, accelerating the company's push to turn your vehicle into a store for goods and services.
A new feature quietly unveiled at Apple's developer conference this month will allow CarPlay users to tap an app to navigate to a pump and buy gas straight from a screen in the car, skipping the usual process of inserting or tapping a credit card. Details of Apple's demo for developers have not previously been reported.
But Dallas-based HF Sinclair, which markets its gasoline at 1,600 stations in the United States, told Reuters that it plans to use the new CarPlay technology and will announce details in coming months.
"We are excited by the idea that consumers could navigate to a Sinclair station and purchase fuel from their vehicle navigation screen," said Jack Barger, the company's senior vice president of marketing.
Fuel apps are just the latest in a sustained push by Apple to make it possible to tap to buy from the navigation screen. It has already opened up CarPlay to apps for parking, electric vehicle charging and ordering food, and it also is adding driving task apps such as logging mileage on business trips.
Fuel is a major expense for car owners. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated in April that the average U.S. household will spend about $2,945 on gasoline in 2022, or about $455 more than last year.
Apple currently does not charge automakers, developers or users for CarPlay; the business interest is putting Apple at the forefront as cars transform into rolling computers, said Horace Dediu, an analyst with Asymco and founder of Micromobility Industries. The new feature will hit hundreds of car models already compatible with CarPlay when Apple releases software updates this fall.
"Forget about Apple Car - Apple CarPlay is a bigger deal," Dediu said. "It's very likely to scale to millions and millions of cars, if not hundreds of millions."
To use the new CarPlay feature this fall, iPhone users will need to download a fuel company's app to their phone and enter payment credentials to set up the app. After the app is set up, users will be able to tap on their navigation screen to activate a pump and pay.
"It's a massive marketplace, and consumers really want to take friction out of payments," said Donald Frieden, chief executive officer of Houston-based P97 Networks, which makes the digital plumbing that many fuel companies will use to connect their apps to cars.
Frieden said he has fielded calls from oil companies that are interested to make their apps work with CarPlay. BP (NYSE:BP), Shell (LON:RDSa) and Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) did not respond to requests for comment about whether they plan to make their iPhone apps work with CarPlay.
FAILED ATTEMPTS
Apple's latest move is likely to increase tensions with automakers that have their own ambitions for commerce in the car.
For example, vehicle makers have tried - and failed - to popularize gasoline purchasing from the car before. General Motors Co (NYSE:GM) rolled out a system for doing so in 2017, but shuttered it earlier this year "due to a supplier exiting the business," GM told Reuters in a statement.
Beyond apps for fuel and other purchases, Apple is also seeking to expand CarPlay further into the car's driving systems by accessing speed and fuel gauge data.
But automakers are not likely to hand over that data to Apple without making demands of their own in talks that analysts believe are likely already under way.
Speaking at the Reuters Automotive Europe conference in Munich on Wednesday, Mercedes Benz CEO Ola Kaellenius said the company's goal "is to have a complete, holistic, Mercedes experience."
Kallenius said Mercedes would not seek to reinvent every category of app, but that "when interacting with companies that are in this digital domain ... anything and everything that crosses into product liability relevance, we would be very cautious."
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Apple (AAPL) Price Target Cut to $180.00 by Analysts at Evercore ISI
By: MarketBeat | June 28, 2022
• Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL - Get Rating) had its price objective cut by Evercore ISI from $210.00 to $180.00 in a report issued on Tuesday, The Fly reports. Evercore ISI's target price points to a potential upside of 26.49% from the company's current price...
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Happy Birthday, iPhone!
By: Bespoke Investment Group | June 29, 2022
Whether it is currently in your pocket or in your hand as you read this, if you own an Apple iPhone, make sure to wish it a happy birthday. Exactly a decade and a half ago to the day, what is now the staple of the smartphone market first hit the shelves. Much of Apple's growth in the years since the smartphone debuted can credited to this revolutionary device. Over the past four quarters the phone accounted for $200 billion in sales which is a 52% share of total revenues for the company. Even though it still currently accounts for a majority of one of the world's biggest companies' revenues, over the past few years, that share has been on the decline having peaked at 69.4% in Q1 2017.
Since the first generation iPhone was released, the stock of Apple has posted astounding gains. In fact, of all current S&P 500 members, AAPL ranks as the fifth best performer (based on price change) in the index since the iPhone debut 15 years ago. The only stocks to have posted even more impressive gains have been Netflix (NFLX), DexCom (DXCM), Regeneron (RGEN), and Amazon (AMZN). That is not to mention that at its high earlier this year, Apple's post iPhone rally stood above 4,000%!
Not only has AAPL left most of the market in the dust over the past 15 years, but it is especially the case for the stocks of other smartphone makers. Below we show the relative strength lines of various other smartphone maker stocks versus Apple (AAPL) since the iPhone debut on June 29, 2007. While other names like Blackberry, HTC, Samsung, and LG (the latter three are USD adjusted given they trade on various Asian markets) saw some outperformance versus Apple in the late 2000s, there has been absolutely no competition over the long run. Granted its business is diversified well beyond smartphones, but Alphabet (GOOGL) also hasn't held a candle to Apple even though its relative strength line has been better off than many other smartphone makers.
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iOS 16 will let you bypass CAPTCHAs on some apps and websites
By: The Verge | June 20, 2022
• It can automatically identify that you’re a real human
When iOS 16 comes out later this fall, you may notice that you don’t have to deal with as many annoying CAPTCHAs asking you to slide a puzzle piece or distinguish between a hill and a mountain. That’s because Apple’s introducing a feature for its iPhones and Macs called Automatic Verification, which let some sites know that you’re not a bot without you actually having to do anything (via MacRumors).
Apple has worked with two major content delivery networks, Fastly and Cloudflare, to develop the system. When it launches with iOS 16 and macOS Ventura, sites that use either of the services to defend against spam should be able to take advantage of the system and stop showing you so many CAPTCHAs. If you’re attentive to how many sites go down when either Fastly or Cloudflare start to have issues, you’ll know that’s a solid chunk of the internet that may become significantly less annoying (especially to those who see CAPTCHAs more often than average because they use a VPN or clear their cookies frequently)...
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$AAPL no leading. Talk of union in Maryland this weekend
By: Options Mike | June 20, 2022
• $AAPL no leading. Talk of union in Maryland this weekend,... 128 is the 52W low. short term well off the 8D and holding 130.
See tomorrows reaction.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Reiterates "$200.00" Price Target for Apple (AAPL)
By: MarketBeat | June 20, 2022
• Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL - Get Rating) received a $200.00 price objective from stock analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a report issued on Monday, Borsen Zeitung reports. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s price objective indicates a potential upside of 52.02% from the company's previous close...
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Apple Weekly. #AAPL some slight positive divergence, however kind of in no man's land
By: ReciKnows | June 19, 2022
• $AAPL Weekly. #AAPL some slight positive divergence, however kind of in no man's land. 122/125 area would provide better probability for a bounce.
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Apple store workers in Maryland form first U.S. union
By: Reuters | June 19, 2022
STORY: Workers at an Apple store in Maryland voted to unionise on Saturday, becoming the first employees of the tech giant in the U.S. to do so.
The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said that more than 100 workers in Towson near Baltimore "overwhelmingly voted to join" their union.
The local workers, which formed the Coalition of Organized Retail Employees, said in a letter written to Apple CEO Tim Cook that they had "the support of a sold majority" of their coworkers.
An Apple spokesperson told Reuters by email that they had nothing to add at this time.
Unionization efforts are gaining momentum at some large U.S. corporations, including Amazon and Starbucks.
Apple workers in Atlanta who were seeking to unionize withdrew their request last month, claiming intimidation.
Some current and former Apple workers last year began criticizing the company's working conditions online, using the hashtag #AppleToo.
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